Transcription
Today's number is 80 because, guys, we're seeing something pretty strange happening on Wall Street. Fund managers, well, they've been falling behind in 2025. And to get their bonuses, they may need to activate that word, leverage and margin.
So, why could this island reversal be so important when it comes in on the S&P, NASDAQ, and many other pairs over the last couple of sessions? Well, in today's video, we take a look at Confluence. Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, and Microsoft all showed very similar setups. And of course, it has us wondering the question of what's next when it comes to these markets. There's a lot of abundance out there. We saw some big breakouts, including a potential inverse head and shoulders on one of our favorite pairs. And we've got some stats in today's video that cannot be missed. So join us as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos for what's ahead in the coming days, weeks, and months. See you soon, guys. It's going to be a good one.
Well, welcome back everybody to what was a sea of green as markets made a huge reversal based on government shutdown results potentially being over and of course what we've been seeing for a little while now, which has been good earning season and people trying to chase for profits. My name is Thomas Atinson and in today's video, we'll be covering everything from the macro to, of course, the data and the key levels.
But let's start off here with a few final thoughts from Warren Buffett. As you guys are aware, he just made his final letter and I thought it had some pretty cool stuff in it. But I just want to mention something which is an excerpt from the report itself and I think this is a very big key moment and it's something that I've done in my trading and investing journey and I'm sure you guys are doing it right now, which is to always improve. He actually mentioned here, it is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can start with Tom Murphy. He was the best.
So, in many ways, this is exactly what you have to do as an investor, trader, or anything in life. If you want to become the best chef, maybe you need to go and find the best chefs in the world and start to learn their techniques and, of course, start to implement them into your own strategy and in this case, of course, procedure. In trading, it's the same. Stanley Draen Miller comes to mind for me. Warren Buffett, Charlie Mer, and many others have all had an impact on my trading and investing journey. And as you guys know, I've been doing this now since 2007. So, it's been a while and it's certainly been an amazing journey.
Now, let's take a look here at government shutdowns because we're about to probably see this end. And this means that we can now bring some stats from what tends to happen after a government shutdown ends. Well, the stats are actually pretty interesting. And you can see here, Nordless Research has a couple of key points. The first one is all about what's going on right now when it comes to the next month. 92% of the time after a government shutdown ends, markets tend to rally. But I think the key here is to have a look at the previous periods where we've seen government shutdowns in general. And what you might notice is that most of the time there's more to go in the bull market. And this comes back to, of course, what we've been talking about, which is this earning season has been very strong. And when earnings are really strong, you tend not to see the top. You still may get volatility and we expect here at FX Evolution for 2026 to be one of the craziest years we've ever seen in investing and trading, but at the same time, you're going to need to know how to navigate them.
So, let's have a look now at the good, the bad, and the ugly when it comes to the macro data, swing back into options, and then, of course, look at the charts. And we'll start here with the speculative mood because while everyone's chasing data centers and AI, nobody seems to like Bitcoin anymore. And we actually found over the last kind of couple of sessions that Bitcoin mood has soured drastically. And we've been talking about here the 93 to 94K and, of course, the 98 to 99,000 level for some time. The first one was achieved. The second one, well, we'll see whether that gets achieved in the future. But these are both incredibly key levels for buyers to recommit. And we may have already seen some recommitting over the last 24 hours when it comes to Bitcoin as the markets did recover back to around 105 to $6,000 per Bitcoin itself.
Let's take a look though at the crypto search in worldwide terms. Yes, we are back to where nobody likes crypto once again. And this is exactly where you want to be if you are a crypto bull. And you might say, why? Well, when you start to see these types of searches hit those kind of near highs, that shows you a bit too much FOMO. Well, nobody likes it. Again, if you want a copy of this chart, jump on over, links in the description down below and follow us on X as we do post things over there. The fear and greed index showed something similar. When we take a look at all of the fear in the current crypto markets, it's currently showing us what has traditionally been a bit of a dip buying process. You can see it overlaid in price over the last couple of years and it's been in general times a pretty good sign of a basing pattern. Now, can we go lower? Of course, you certainly can. We've seen that before. But generally speaking, if you wait for structure, which we'll talk about later on, as we do love to follow structure here on the channel, and you actually wait for triggers and use scale-in processes, you'll be surprised at how good certain levels can happen. And, of course, things can go through.
Now, one thing that hasn't been going so well has been MSTR, particularly when it comes to the overall Bitcoin yield. It's actually at an all-time low right now. So, this is a big concern here for Strategy. And you can see on the charts, while it has been following Bitcoin a little bit, you'll notice that it started to disconnect a little bit as well, coming down to a key level of support. And, of course, it needs to kind of hold this level, otherwise things could get worse. As I've long argued, and I think all of us have here on the channel, we do prefer, of course, Bitcoin, as I've always thought. If you have access to Bitcoin, why not go for the real thing rather than this? But that was, of course, a genius idea, especially when it was implemented because it gave access to people that weren't maybe necessarily going to get access to it. And what a great market segment that has been.
Let's now take a look here at Bitcoin when it comes to the whales. We talked about the whales dumping, but the whales have been, while they're dumping, they're not dumping at the same rates that they've done so during usually typical top-end kind of bubble highs. And specifically, if you have a look here, if we go back to 2021, during the hype and all of the fever, we saw a massive amount of Bitcoin whales dumping. We also got something similar in 2024, similar again at the beginning of this year in 2025. And so far during this particular distribution, while we have seen some of the OG whales dumping off, remember there's 500 million units. Some of those have transacted for the first time in over 7 years, but we still haven't seen the same quantity that we generally have at these tops. So, are Bitcoin whales selling? Yes. Are we seeing, of course, Wall Street entering into the market? Yes. And what that basically means is that we need to be looking at markets a little bit differently.
Could we be at the end of the Bitcoin having cycle as we know it? My strategy has been yes, I do believe we are. But, of course, we cannot discount some amazing stats here. This one here is from Brett F. And you'll notice bottom to top, top to top, h havinging to top, bottom to bottom. All of these things, they're right on their averages or even slightly above at the point of this recording. And remember, this is a chart taken from about 2 weeks ago. So, where do we find ourselves now? We find ourselves right on this level.
So, from the Bitcoin and crypto analysis world, really, we're looking mostly at price action. You can make a case for the bare side, but, of course, we've been making a stronger case for the bull side, mostly based on our data stats for the stock market. And one of the things that we're looking for is, of course, we're looking for things like the Texas Stock Exchange at the end of the year. We're looking for tokenization. And I'm still looking for more IPOs as there's a lot of private equity companies that are trying to list into the markets and they're going to be trying to do that throughout 2026, which is one of those classic later cycle style markets if it does come to fruition.
So let's talk about the elephant in the room. The big one here which is everyone's arguing about is, of course, whether we're going to see US inflation. Now, one of the things with US inflation, guys, is that if we are following the one data set that we have, and this is really the only other one we do have, which is the 1960s to 1983 kind of run, 2026 is going to be the time where we'll see reinflation. Now, I've asked you guys before on this whether we're going to get it or not. Be really interested to see your comments down below on this one, but, of course, we are following a very similar chart so far. Now, some people have said, well, could it be caused by tariffs? Of course, tariffs could cause a spike in inflation, but not necessarily a long-lasting one. It'll be like an instantaneous spike, but generally speaking, you tend to see hot markets across the board. And remember, inflation is one of those dangerous animals. It's very difficult to type try to predict it exactly. But instead, you also want to think about whether even if it comes back, whether the markets are actually going to sell off or not. So, that is going to be key. But 2026 is where we see reinflation kind of occur, if it's going to. And that chart is of course from Tavy Costa over on X. A really good chart here.
Another one is something we've been arguing for a while, which is that, of course, the PBOC has been doing QE and it hasn't been stealth QE like the Fed because you'll see here the Fed asset sheet looks like it's been going down, but the POC has been doing traditional QE and pumping their market. Specifically, we got very bullish on this last year. And so far, actually, China's been up one of the best markets of the year when you look at the overall gains, especially in some of the single stocks. But the key here is just going to be that most central banks around the world are continuing to pump liquidity into the system as many economic kind of issues are starting to come up. Most notably, of course, people are moving away from inflation problems and moving into what's going on with unemployment. Are we going to need to support this market?
Now, on the flip of all of this, we have AI growth projections. Now, I don't know whether you guys agree with this one, but according to one of the latest Bloomberg Intelligence reports here, courtesy of Daily Chartbook over X, you can see that AI growth projections, just generative AI, is expected to hit $1.8 trillion in sales by 2032. And look at this growth trajection people have. And you've got to remember, this is pretty much what Wall Street is figuring out. Wall Street's going through and saying, "We want this much money by this much time." If it doesn't happen, they will slaughter, of course, those stocks. But if we continue to see the strong earnings, then they're going to continue to project these numbers out and get even more and more and more excited about what's going to happen in the future. So, it's important to note that it doesn't really matter what your opinion is on this. It's just whether it continues to show up in the current data and therefore they project out those big numbers because remember, it's the forward look that the markets are generally optimistic on.
Speaking of optimistic markets, we've now had a pretty long period of time with the stock market above its 50-day moving average. Now, we recently talked about the 50-day moving average as one of the best buy levels on this rally so far, particularly on the cues, and we'll look at that later on today's video. But you guys would know that 600 level had a phantom print on it. It also had a most traded zone on it, and it also had the, of course, daily 50. Well, it turns out Subu trade has gone through and figured out that when we are traded this many days above the 50, you still could be in for a little bit of volatility. But guess what? It's not much. And if you actually look at the longer-term stats for it, which we've got here, you'll notice that generally speaking, a couple of months later, particularly, markets are up very bullish. And this really works in with the current structure. Strength continues to be strength.
Fund managers, which are over 80% right now, I think it's like 85% are underperforming this year, need to chase for those end-of-year bonuses. What could they do, guys? They could start to lever up, start to margin up, start to take more risk to push these markets higher. And it's kind of my usual thought process that when they're really running behind like they are this year, because remember they repriced themselves and started selling quite a lot back in liberation day periods, that they might actually now need to jump in and start to try to make that money so they get those bonuses. The worst thing you can do in fund management space is obviously underperform the S&P and so far so many of them are doing it, which means they're going to potentially need to be taking some risks into the end of the year. So keep that in the back of your mind.
Now, in terms of S&P 500 sector weighting, a lot of people have been messaging me on this one saying, "Tom, you say concentrated markets not very good on the longer term." That is true. Concentrated markets have tended to end up in bubbles and sell. But at the same time, you've got to remember that we are currently concentrated with good earnings. So, it can continue until something like that breaks. And remember, when everyone says it's a bubble, it will never crash. And I've always said that and I remain to that point. We're still at a point where everyone's calling it a bubble and this big divided line. How do we know? Every time the market sells off, we're seeing tons of puts suddenly come into the markets and you guys saw that last week with puts everywhere on the weekend straight after that Friday sell.
Now, I thought this would be an interesting time just to show the abundance mindset though in these markets. A great chart here from Tavi Costa again and it shows that 36% of the market is information tech. It's actually higher than this if you take all the sectors because remember some were reclassified and we get 40% plus, I think it's actually even 44, 46%. So it's a very concentrated market though it is with earnings this time around, but what has dropped off is raw earth's resources, materials. You guys might think that after the move so far in these this year, which we've been very bullish on, that that's all for them, but actually they've fallen to really low lows. So, it's really important to look at it from the perspective of a lot of commodities are actually really cheap still when you're looking at where they were priced only a few decades ago and where they could be in the future. And so far, we've been following, of course, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and those ones this year, but also you've had pickups recently in iron ore, copper, and other metals. So, there's always something new, guys, rotate through. You'll see it. We actually cover a lot of this in our private community, links in the description down below.
Now, when we're taking a look here at this near historic market, we've got, of course, an extreme, and again, this one here is from Subieu Trade. We showed it last week, which is that the S&P 500 is currently trading 13% above its 200 day. Now, I love that because, of course, when the markets are trading above their 200, it generally means strength. The other thing is that when you move too far above, you can create a pit or even a pullback. Now, so far we've seen a small pullback around 6% on the NASDAQ, which is actually very normal and pretty good pullback in my opinion. And then, of course, we tend to see usually a market that then pulls back, kind of consolidates a little bit, and then generally rallies forward. Now, how do we know that? Well, look at these stats particularly for the next month, particularly for the next two months. Remember the stat that we've been sharing recently which had that in similar structured markets coming into November, 95% of the time we would be bullish by the end of the year as of taken of that date and that's just the data alone from these guys obviously over on X, give them a follow. And what you can see here is when the market was near historic extremes in a bullish manner like this, what was the maximum draw down over the next year? Well, there were a couple of ones that got there, of course, we had 2018, most notably almost 20% down. But this just shows that generally speaking, it was still a bull market. And I think it's really important because, of course, recently we've seen Hindenburg Omens, Titanics, all these other weird signals that are coming through. And we've even got articles quite like this one which says that Meta projected that in 2024, 10% of its revenue would come from scam ads. Wow. What? I just had to share this because it just like everyone's just taking whatever dollars can be had here and uh obviously that's pretty shocking when you think they actually know their scam ads and they're still running that 10% of their revenue will come from that. But what we're still in is we're still in an earnings uh re kind of growth period for, of course, those top 10 stocks. So you've got to look at that and the Hindenburg that is a very good cluster signal. So, of course, right now we're sitting at four or five reads. I expect that to get higher and higher and it will take us into 2026 with more uncertainty than we've seen before. So get ready for a pretty wild ride next year. I think it's going to be a wild wild market indeed.
Let's now have a look here at short-term or in terms of Treasury bills in general. Actually, it turns out Warren Buffett ends his kind of career here with uh holding 5.6% of the entire US Treasury bill market. That's pretty incredible when you think about what he owns and what he's built over, of course, his lifetime of investing.
Let's also talk about strength coming into more strength. Obviously, we've seen the NASDAQ hit a massive amount of months up. It was 7 months up. We also have had been up 47% in 7 months since Liberation Day. What an incredible run it's been. And you can see here that when you're on these types of runs, they can start to culminate in a little bit of sideways action, but generally do still end up being bullish. So, why is this important? Well, when you get those Hindenburg reads, there's a lot of kind of stuff going on here into the end of the year. You've got bullish and bearish kind of reads here that we're sharing both of. But, if I had to guess, if you're looking at the overwhelming evidence, so far, it's still going to be more bullish. I'm showing you that, but generally, it's going to be more bullish. And one of the reasons is that when we've had such strong returns like this as well and you start to run these stats through and you actually look at the next couple of months. Look at this one here from Blue Codic. 81.5% bullish markets. These are the general structures. So again, there's nothing really terrifying here overall when you're looking at the overall structures and you can see this is the average path. So if we were to follow the average market after seeing what just happened in the market structure, then we would generally be looking at pretty nice move and funnily enough, the only weakness that you'd be really seeing in terms of significant weakness would actually be around that period of January, February next year. And do remember that lines up very well when we take a look at some of the structure from 1998 to uh 2000 analog when we're overlaying this current market.
Let's jump on over to the semiconductor market here. Why did we bounce? Well, we bounced because we came back to a level that Wall Street tended to like nibbling at. So, semiconductors, of course, one of the best markets in the world. It dropped back down and it hit this level of demand. And this is exactly where we've seen some really good strong buying in the past. It also coupled up with that phantom print. And we also saw stocks such as Meta and also Microsoft find some key levels of potential demand. Now Meta ended up getting a bunch of trades on it. This is a two times levered Meta bull position. Met you. And you'll notice here that it had its second largest darkpool transaction right at the bottom. Wow, look at those. That was a sniper AI right down there. And what an incredible buy, I guess, for them. But the rally, it just shows you again key levels. That was a gap fill. That was a fib. That was a anchored VWAP on some levels. That was also, of course, a darkpool trade. Bring together the evidence, you get a much better level.
Consumer staples also look really good when you're looking at a kind of sharp or risk-adjusted return ratio. They've just hit an oversold and started to buy up as well a little bit. And in similar situations, according to Nautilus here, the returns have been good. You might say, well, the S&P did better, Tom, over that period. I think the next three months though is the most interesting read because Staples were performing around 9.6ish kind of percent and you can see here we had to 12% and we had kind of 16% when it comes to the S&P. So it's not a bad return here for staples and risk-adjusted return. And again, when people are scared of markets, there are other sectors that you could potentially be in. Healthcare, utilities, staples, those ones tend to be less volatile, but at the same time can sometimes produce just as good returns as the S&P when they're bought at the right periods.
Let's take a look at the earnings because, of course, they're continuing to do well. When the S&P 100 earnings starts to fall over, that's when, of course, we'll be very concerned. And as we mentioned before, if we do go on the general kind of point here of a 98 to 2000 narrative, which is very similar to how we've currently been trading this year and something we've been tracking all year together, uh, then we may actually see more of a sell in Jan Feb of next year. And at this point, it looks like that's where the data stats are kind of pointing towards, but we'll obviously update that as we see more.
Another really interesting read has actually been from the silver gold trade. Now you guys know we're very bullish gold and silver when it comes to the macro. We've been bullish it for 2 and 1/2 years, particularly silver this year and it's been an incredible incredible run. Now at the same time, what isn't very incredible is, of course, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. No one likes this market. It is hated. Look at this. It's a hated market. And I'm not talking gold. I'm just talking generalized market. And what this means is that when you've got reads this low, you can see here this really cool chart from Renmack. And what it shows is that when we've had these types of extreme bearish sentiment on the University Michigan sentiment index, it's generally tended to be basing patterns or buy areas. And I think that's most notable over here where we actually had a period where gold actually sat and a period where gold, of course, dipped a little bit during these times, but it ended up being quite good uh in terms of buy areas. So certainly one to look at for earnings this week, guys. Obviously, we've already had some big ones. There's been some disappointments out there and there's obviously been some uh okay ones, but generally speaking, it's holding up pretty much across the board and we still have quite a lot of big ones coming in this week. Notably, of course, Cisco, Disney, and then Billy Billy as well, which is a stock I've been looking for forward to kind of reviewing and seeing how it goes in China.
Now, let's have a look over here because we have had five Hindenburg omens and that's quite a lot. Now, that's on, of course, the cues, but you'll notice here it's certainly triggering off in a cluster right now. Do I pay attention to it? I pay attention. I put it in the back of my mind and then I look for a real trigger. At the moment, the big trigger here was, of course, this one, the daily 50. And we knew that the daily 50 was likely going to be a very key level. But we've also on top of that now got a really solid pattern, which is the island reversal, the gap down, gap up style market. And even now, if the markets weaken a little bit here, this has been the signal that we've used a couple of times this year to really detail very bullish markets that have tended to run on. We had one over here in August. We had one over here in September and now we have one over here coming off that daily 50. It's the same thing when we go over to the S&P. You'll notice here it's exactly the same read that we're going to get. And we again have an island reversal that has broken the downward trend line as well. So that is for any bears that were looking this kind of downward trend line. And it's also made a higher high above 68.25, which suggests again that this market is likely going to continue to find buyers. It was also another pretty interesting read when you look at it because, of course, this was the downward channel that we had drawn just a little while ago. And you'll notice that if that's going to project out at this point and we actually do continue to run up, could the next stop be somewhere in around 7,000? That's kind of the the general argument here as we continue to go up in this ascending channel for this period of time.
Updated options high and low strategies for anyone that's looking at the next 24 hours. 2050 cross on the 2hour in terms of the moving average and a key level I think is going to be probably around this anchored VWAP zone. So if we're taking an anchored VWAP off the low, one of the key zones I'm going to be looking at is 6750 should we pull back. So that's going to be a very, very important level for the bulls to hold. Now let's take a look why that could be when we're going with the S&P and we're looking at these options flows. 6850 the most struck level, 6,800 the next day. So, what I'm thinking is that even though the market's very bullish and that's been pretty good, if the market wants to make a lot of money, it could possibly pull back a little bit here and then rally through 6,800 later on the week, taking us towards, as you can see here, 6,900, which is the OPEX of this month. So, that is the biggest options expiration. You can see the sizes are quite large when you look at each side here. So, does that make sense? It's the most working theory we have, but in general, markets turned straight back into positive gamma. It was a very strong rally. And again, the market is shrugging off all of these worries that we have. And I think the biggest thing for me is just going to be leverage. You know, I think there's so much leverage in this market, but one thing I know about Wall Street traders and I know about fund managers is they need their bonuses. So, they tend to jump in. What do you guys think though? Comments down below.
Tesla, let's have a look at this one. Pretty good. Strong recovery. Very nice like 3 to 4% there in the last 24 hours. Back to that 450 marker which we've seen before. We're still aiming for just sub 500 when it comes to the trading side on that. For Nvidia, it was an incredible incredible rally there. Very well done for anyone that I guess bought those lows. Semiconductors also confirmed the exact same thing. And you can see here that I bits back at around that $60 mark. So obviously Bitcoin did improve.
Now, a few of you guys have asked me the question, well, Tom, do you think that Bitcoin is going to actually end up in that 9394? Look, we play both opportunities. There's a 98 to 100, which we said only a few weeks ago. We talked about 9394 is the highest liquidity grab. So, if you're going to, if Wall Street wants to grab the most amount of money, it's going to go down there and nick that level. And then, of course, if we see a resumption after that, be very, very strong. But, this is still a key level. And we'll look at the zones that you need to watch in a moment.
Let's check out over gold. Gold is pretty strong. We've talked about 360 many times on the put level and now we're getting closer to that kind of 375 to 380 zone. So obviously in that positive gamma again, gold had a very strong 24 hours.
Let's jump to lead indicators now. What's going on in the wonderful world of bonds? Nothing much. No breakout high, no real risk. Doesn't look like the markets care too much. Again, our opinions don't mean much. What we do is we look at structure here and as we've detailed before, whether it's the Niki, whether it's the Korean market, whether it's here Latin America, whether it's the Euro stocks, whether it's the Footsie 100, they're all making all-time highs. The only market I've got an alert for for potential weakness is the DAX. And the reason is because the DAX actually gave us two amazing shorts over the last 3 years. And you might say, well, that's not very much. Yeah, but they're big ones. So the DAX actually could be a distribution still. So you can see here by climax UTD potentially. So I've got a little alert just in case it breaks under here and it was a precursor for the US as well. So we're watching, but again, no real signs of that being weak just at this point.
Nvidia came off one of the heavy trade levels of 180 and ended up rallying big time up 20 bucks in just two sessions. So congrats I guess if you got that. And obviously we saw here XLP also pick up off its low as it took the lower low. So some strong signs there from multiple different areas. Healthcare also performing well. Oil services performing well. Plenty of stocks uh doing okay over the last 24 hours.
US dollar stabilized at its current level. We've, of course, been bullish on this last couple of weeks and we continue to be. So I'm watching very closely for rebulling at around 998075 zone from the technical zone. We'll see whether that does happen. And gold has faced off now on a very important resistance. So you can see here when you go to the 4hour, gold's rallied up to what I would say is probably a technical traders TP zone if they bought it down here and, of course, a very important level for the future of the gold trade uh to break up.
Now, silver on the other hand, that's been a lot more bullish. If you actually take the distance here, you're going to get that inverse head and shoulders. That's going to give you pretty much a movement into these resistance highs and it's going to push like a 52 kind of 45 zone and uh it's very, very strong from that aspect. We spoke about this a while ago. We talked about the daily 50 being really strong and I still maintain the same thing for one to two months generally, at least one month after silver does this. It stays within range, but as we really detail, generally the strength is still to the upside. So, it's what we call a pit and a pullback in time. And I'm not bearish long-term on silver and gold for obvious reasons.
Semiconductors versus SPY, another one that's still on the improved. So, obviously, we do not want to be bearish on markets while semiconductors are still good. And if you did come in and you saw this bullish hammer as a Friday and you bought it, well done to you, I guess, because uh that was a very strong rejection from a pretty key level of support. And again, the daily 50, you're seeing the daily 50 S&P, NASDAQ, let's be real, they're all semiconductors and tech. But you know what? All of them showed it. Confluence. Love it. Love it. So very good stuff.
Tesla also hit the 50 and we saw Tesla bounce off. It's not through the problems yet, but obviously I do like it when any time a market gets past something like this, which is like a rejection, and often that can be a little bit strong. You can see over here, uh, it it obviously kind of just started correlating with each other, but we're still aiming for that sub 500. And I do think Elon is going to push the narrative on this stock quite a lot. We also saw Microsoft coming off its low, which again had some good data stats on our weekend video if you're interested, and Meta with the gap fill as well uh that we looked at. So again, nice gap fill, nice little bit of a bounce, you know, has it shown the first sign of potential oversoldness from its earnings? Absolutely, though I must admit those 10% scam ads don't sound very good to me.
What about the Q's? Well, we might have seen the Q's and the NASDAQ do this, but have a look here at the futures. And what you'll notice is that we actually hit it also on that tariff kind of meltdown. So, got one, two, three hits. We've bounced back up. We're currently at supply here. The S&P's actually broken the supply on the left-hand side, signaling that it could be a bit that it's looking a bit stronger in in general for the markets. But yeah, at this stage, this is kind of the best working theory and you can see our thoughts on the S&P and those levels should line up pretty well with the NASDAQ as well in terms of what happens.
Now, the elephant in the room, crypto markets, quite difficult in some ways to read. I do think that, of course, the 100K marker is very strong for Bitcoin. We've talked about 98 to 100 dollar cost averages. You know, those guys will be liking that level because it's not a bad level. And then, of course, you've got cut levels maybe underneath your 90s and that kind of thing. But at this stage, you can see here Ethereum bounced off some key zones, moving average, anchored VWAP. Uh, we've also got Solana most traded zone bounced off that. Couple of cryptos starting to pick up. Few people going furious and fast in terms of trending. I saw Litecoin trending just before and you can see here that Bitcoin now, what Bitcoin did was it came down and it hit into this 98 market and it kind of did like a little double bottom. Now, is it out of the problems yet? Not really, because it's still technically in a downward trend. So, what that means is that we've got a series of lower lows and lower highs. Did we double bottom base? Yes. If that was to complete, we go to 110, 1111. But until you're through this, you're not really out of trouble. So, you're at the first level of supply now. The second level is here. That would equal around 3850 on F in my opinion. So, they'd all be confluence at that point. And that's the real decision area. I think this is a pretty interesting and very interesting, very important level for Bitcoin. Uh, do I like 9394 still? Of course. Do I like 9800? I do. I like both levels at this stage. Uh, but it depends what type of trader you are. Are you a trader that waits for the reaction of the market and then buys it? Or are you someone that's just buying long-term hodddling and saying, "I just want better prices." Of course, that's a different strategy for each thing.
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