Transcription
Today's number is eight because that's the percentage of the time that markets are actually up after doing what they've just done over the next 3 weeks. Guys, this is a pretty serious video and there's a lot to talk about together. Has Wall Street begun dumping their positions? Massive dark pools have now shown up over the last two to three sessions and it's all clustering at an extremely overbought level. Could this be the pullback that everyone's been looking for? Or is it just the beginning of a very small dip into a massive rally? Well, most of the signs are all coming from the options market. And in today's video, we'll discuss it all together. Stocks, commodities, and cryptos. Let's get into it right now.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name's Thomas Atinson and in today's video, we're looking at the latest macro, the data, and of course, those dark pool trades. It looks like Wall Street has been making quite a few of them in recent sessions and it could mark the top for a temporary pullback. But how big could things get? And are we actually about to see the signs of what people have been looking now for for the last 2 months?
Well, let's firstly step back a moment and take a look at what's happening for retail traders, people like you and I that are often buying these high volatility stocks. Well, the good news is everything has been all green, all good pretty much since around that April May low. And the reason is quite simple. Retail trades have been doing better than anybody else. Take a look here at the data that we've been sharing recently about the Goldman Sachs retail favorite basket having its best streak ever, even going better than 2021. What does this mean? Well, of course, when there is lots of gains to be had, there is a lot of leverage coming into markets. In fact, retail imbalance has also been on the rise and it's been clustering up as well, which kind of shows that a lot of retail traders have really been stacking into this current market value and rally. And this is good in terms of the current gains, but it also can present an opportunity for those sneaky players on Wall Street. And what those players tend to be is of course stealing money through the options market and of course causing stop losses to be had.
Now Goldman Sachs also came out and said that they just had their biggest monthly jump in high beta Momo in history which is basically momentum funds and momentum positions. Now this basically means that we've just seen huge amounts of money coming into the markets over the last week particularly since the Fed rate cut. And as you guys know, the first month in particular post a rate cut, even at all-time highs, brings the VIX. Usually, it's actually a 50/50 market, even if things are going to go well later on. And this opens up those opportunities of, of course, potentially cheaper positions. We're also starting to stack a little bit more data together. Calls just hit a really important ratio when it comes to single stocks. And this is quite rare again to see 0.45. We've only had it a couple of times over the last couple of years and when it has happened it's led of course onto a small decline here in markets and that pullback that kind of people have been watching for. It also happens to be that the VIX, the volatility market, is rising up again. Now you might say okay well the VIX rises up usually that means the market's going down. Well, this time it's a little bit different as you can see here by Subu Trade and another one from Nautilus in a moment when we get very specific circumstances and no doubt guys this is a very specific circumstance but it is when the S&P is of course continuing on the way up 3 weeks later only 8% of the time markets were up. Now, this also stacks on with that RSI read we got, which we'll show later on today's video. And you can see here a different type of condition analysis here. VIX is below 17.5%. And 90% of the closes in the last 100 days were below the 6-month moving average. Yeah, again, look at that 3-week read. Interesting times. Doesn't mean it's going to be a sell-off of the ages, but it certainly does point to that scenario. Usually, you could say could go up, down, and all around. But in the last video, we talked about how it was more likely going to be sideways from this extreme overbought to even a decline coming into October.
Now, this is all very important because how does Wall Street again tend to make money? Well, it tends to make money off people making those FOMO style mistakes. And of course, fear and greed are the two most powerful emotions that we feel as humans. So the market has really turned into a psychological warfare type of movement over the last 5 years in particular. Not that it wasn't always that way, but it's even more so since retail now make up over 20 to even upwards of 28% of the market depending on the time and place. So why is this important? Well, we're getting those leverage levels starting to rise up again. In fact, these ones are even more scary when you think about it. Leverage acceleration is starting to come through. And this is kind of pointing towards the possibility of a similar time such as 2021 where markets went and they rallied up higher and everybody started to feel really great. Leverage acceleration went through and then all of a sudden things go bad. Now of course that one led on to over a 20% decline and then with the rest is history. We've started to rally once again. But it can bring those bigger bearish positions. So do we tend to see this before all of those things? Absolutely. Have we hit extreme levels yet? Probably not. So, even if we get a pullback here, there's probably more to come. But it is something that you want to keep in your back pocket, especially into 2026.
So, let's now take a look at the dark pool trades. And boy oh boy, are there quite a few of them. And I think the key here is that they're not just normal dark pool trades. Some of them are clusters and some of them are like this one, which is what we call a sweep. Now, a sweep trade basically is something where it has to be done very quickly because they want to get out. Now, you might say, "Well, Tom, someone's taking the other side." You assume that everyone has the same information. And you might say, "Well, it's a big position. Surely the other person knows." No, not everyone knows about anything. If it was that easy, then it'd be that easy. There's usually somebody willing to take another position side. And the key is that when you see these transactions, how does the price action act after they particularly come through? The number one largest on that particular exchange train of fund. And we've just got a new one here, which is of course the Qs with a number two print and it's a dark pool, which means that of course it's done off market and then they report on it. And this is huge. This is a big big one. Now you might say, "But Tom, look at the last one. Number one, number three. I mean, we've seen some massive ones this year." Yep. But when they've come through, what you'll notice is that usually it's either in a pit or in this case, what actually happened was a small pullback and then the rally came through. Now, this was an OPEX period. This is actually happened after the OPEX. So, is it a late print or is it just something that came through after the OPEX? If it is after the OPEX, it's even more important because it's a massive position that actually could be someone making a huge decision on the markets themselves.
BO also starting to show clusters about what 2 weeks ago, a week ago, whenever it was, we reported on the largest BO trade of all time and we said too early to tell anything particular. Well, now we've had the second largest and the fifth largest all on this fund and they're all clustering together. And again, this suggests that maybe the market is either going to take a breather here or it's even going to decline. The upward case scenario, even though that's always the best case scenario, guys, remember markets are incredibly bullish. It's very easy to be bullish. The markets are currently bullish on the daily, weekly, monthly. Don't get me wrong, and if I was holding investments or anything like that, this would not be a reason why I'd be like, "Oh, I'm running for the hills or anything." But it does show that somebody is at least making some decisions and that can cause a small pullback or even a waste of time which is of course a pit, what we call on this channel.
The S&P 500 also has been in overbought territory for a while. The RSI, which we don't use too much but it is an interesting study here, has stayed above 452 consecutive days. Now that's pretty rare. We first talked about this last week and again it gives us these interesting stats when it comes to two, three weeks later. Two weeks later 0% of the time in similar circumstances was the market up and of course that leans in on this seasonality period of the year. We always say August, September, October we tend to look for VIX. We tend to expect some kind of pullback. It's the classic one other than the early one in the year. And yeah, it may come and likely if it is going to come, it's probably going to be somewhere around October now into October. This is the main time that it generally does come if it doesn't happen in August.
Now, let's have a look here at nearly 4 years. Why is this important for no high on the Russell? Well, recently we got a cut from the Fed and that in itself probably suggests way more cuts to come. We've already seen the market start to price in six. Well, when you make a new all-time high after doing nothing for quite some time, it is actually a very good stat for the markets over the next 3 months, 6 months in particular. And you've got to keep in mind, is this market going to most likely buy up if it does dip? And I think the answer is for now, it's likely a yes. Okay, that's not to say there are not problems in the economy. I was reading today supposedly there are ATM fees in Vegas that are $90. Who pays that? You have to have a rock literally loose in your brain to pay $90 ATM fees. But maybe that's the gambler way. $14 coffees. You know, things are getting out of control out there, guys. So, certainly some absolute uh wild stuff happening. But what you'll notice here is that we have a clear path change after around usually around 3 months post a cut. Now, it's also about how does that clear path go? Even if we rise up and markets continue to find bullishness, which is the most common thing that happens at all-time highs, it's the type of position that goes up that will be important. So, we'll be tracking that on the channel and if you haven't already, make sure to subscribe and of course follow along cuz that will be a very important point.
Now, Wayne has some great data. We always bring him up many times around these periods of the year because he has excellent data that is specific to the year as well. And what we found was that or he found anyway was that after summer being so strong as it was that that actually usually bought the sell in October and that October was not really that great for the bulls. Now you might say, "Yeah, well, you know, whatever. It's only 2% down." Yeah, you'd be right. The average is that you might be getting a 5% to 8% kind of garden variety pullback, but at this stage based on the evidence, even if we did, just remember that's probably what's going to happen. But who's that going to hurt? The retail trader guys. Why? They're in three times levered funds. You guys, you're mad. Some of you, you're in the three times levered funds having a great time. There's no risk. 100% gains, baby. It's all good. But of course, if that does change, and it can change like that, you've got to be prepared. So, certainly some caution signs, probably the most caution signs we've had in months coming into this market, at least in the uh current position.
Now, we talked about in our last video that we were at an extreme overbought position and that we expected after doing this that we would squeeze for maybe two, three sessions. We did. We've seen a sell a little bit here. And this is not to say that it has to go to all the way down or anything, but certainly it is a beginning of a potential, you know, bigger sell. The other thing that I think I'd note here is that uh when you're looking at these positions, you've got to remember how far are we away from some of the key indicators, particularly the 20 weekly is an important one. Now, we're only about 5.84%. So, we're actually not going up with a speed that we've done in the past, such as here, but certainly it's been a while since we've touched the weekly 20. And it's incredibly rare as well to see a rally like this that's never pulled back to the weekly 20. So that becomes a certainly an area of interest and funnily enough that would actually mark in with that 6350 and a few levels like this. For today's options for the next session we are looking at around here for the high and here for the low with the 68% likelihood of course based on options markets. But you will notice that puts came out of nowhere. As soon as the market dropped what happens? Puts come in and that's exactly what happened in the last uh session. So we we started to get puts coming in and it may hold it up. But if markets break through 6650, there's a possibility we might decline a little bit. Would I sell the market here? Not myself. No, because I think the market is incredibly strong. But what I would say is I would be cautious about adding new positions at these levels. And the reason is because it's sometimes worthwhile having a little bit of powder for that October kind of sell that can come through. Uh due to the fact that if you you know if you're getting 5% 8% cheaper prices you still think things are probably going to move up. There's excuses such as inflation other things coming that all of those can lead into these buy these potentially better locations especially in some single stocks.
Tesla still going towards that 450 in terms of positive gamma, but it's obviously started to slow down with that sell of the last 24 hours. And Nvidia unable to get through the key level. Remember, for these markets to go up, it's probably going to need Nvidia through 185. That has not happened. So unless Nvidia's through 185, it's going to be tough for the market to continue to beast mode up all the way. IBIT, which is of course the big options expiration or options moves for Bitcoin that's been doing pretty well at holding around that 63 level. Now we do know that this is where the puts are in terms of a put wall and of course we've been talking about the possibility of uh Bitcoin going towards an all-time high and I still think that may happen. There are some little worrying signs we'll look at in the charts for Bitcoin. Uh but first up, the key level is currently finding some bid. And then there's gold, which is one of our favorites on the channel. And this thing just keeps beast modeing up. And at the current circumstances, 3 kind of 48, 349 seems to be the zone that you'd look for in gold. And if you correlated that back to spot, you're probably going to find it to be about, I would say, probably around uh $3,800 an ounce. So, that's going to be the next level to watch, guys, which is pretty common.
Now, when it comes to yields, yields have been up across the board. You can see the 10-year yield spiked post Fed cut and the 2-year also spiked up a little bit. Nothing much to see there. Consumer discretionary versus staples, which is one of our leads of growth. That's showed extreme overboughtness. So, obviously, that's been why we've been bullish. First sign of a weak print comes in the last 24 hours. Again, could show some form of pullback and ARK also showing extreme overboughtness after that breakout. So again doing a print here that I think is important to pay some attention to. When it comes to the US dollar, it's kind of just been a little weak. If it does break through this resistance of course we think it could go to 9810 which is the next level. I do think there's some currency trades open on the next few sessions. So certainly something to be watching for. And then of course there's gold which just looks really ridiculously long, which we've talked about a lot. Uh but I wouldn't be surprised again to see a high volatile period at some point. You guys know me. I'm very bullish on gold and have been since the uh the early 1900s guys. Actually, I said 1800s. You always like that one. But yeah, it's been a while uh for this gold run. And I don't think it's over. But again, VIX could come in if markets sell. And silver doesn't really care about anyone at the moment. It's just kind of moving up. Couple of doge is up here suggesting it's it's reached a point of equilibrium or just chill point and that's fine. Uh it's still in an upward trend.
When it comes to oil, oil actually bounced. Look at this. Oh, I tell you, it was a little scary down there, guys. A little scary down there if you were long cuz this thing came close. But it did manage to break back above 63, suggesting at least for day traders and intraday traders that maybe some bullishness is coming back into got into oil. And you can see here if it breaks through 64.70 that could be also a little key. So oil, yeah, maybe more interesting. It was semiconductors, big break. Now let's just take the distance here. You guys know I love proofing and I'm going to use proofing here to prove a point. And the point is that we just hit target for a standard pattern momentum trader. Now why is that important? Because we've also hit an overbought signal. So we hit that on there. We hit the resistance on Nvidia. Again, if it breaks through 185, that that to me is kind of like further bullishness coming. But you can see here, lots of extreme overboughts here. Even Tesla, you know, dealing with that 450, getting close, then pulling back a little bit. Very key levels. Certainly some stuff to watch. US 2K, you can see here, uh, basically we're kind of just hovering around the same zone. And, um, yeah, it's, uh, it's basically at that kind of area where you would expect a bit of consolidation. Why it made an all-time high and people are going to take profit that have been stuck in the Russell. You can see it also as a shooting star candle which suggests again a little bit of weakness. Now you take that shooting star out, get past $24.95, you see Nvidia break the 185 again. I think it's risk on from that point for quite a few sessions. So it's not to say it's not possible to risk on, the trend is up, but I would be more cautious here based on the evidence that we're starting to build. NASDAQ, similar signs, overbought.
And then there's Bitcoin, which is doing its own thing, and it's sitting around the first areas of potential purchase, which is, of course, that 110, 111 uh area. Uh have we seen enough bid to say that it's going to an all-time high yet? No. Will we have some extra stuff to talk about on crypto markets in the next few videos? Absolutely. Um, but this will of course be really important for the week ahead. There is still more news to come. We've got of course bunches of information including Thursday which will bring us the GDP, guys. But really I think the thing is, yeah, maybe the core PC on Friday will happen. This will just be a question of whether the market chooses to go negative gamma. The S&P 500 will be worth watching. It's still, you know, really just a sign here of overboughtness across the board. And I think it's not really a point of where I would be like heavily panicking or what do they call it? A panicking. You wouldn't want to be one of those right now. But at the same time, it is due. Uh people have been calling for it for a while. We've been discussing the idea of whether it's happened, and this is the first sign that we've had in a while that really starts to stack those odds together. Will Wall Street take some money from retail again? You know, they love doing it. Make sure to follow us over on X. Check us out on LinkedIn as well. And of course, if you're interested in more about how we pick gold, silver, China, you know, Bitcoin, all of these things when they've happened, and of course, my my love of the semiconductor, then you can check that out in our courses. I'd particularly recommend the advanced course. Uh I do talk a lot about why this is a repeatable process. And the key to trading and investing, remember guys, this is something that's very important. Is someone that goes and makes yolo money on one stock, they're going to lose it all. It's about consistency, repetition, and dealing with your emotions. If you can do that, you got a great chance in the markets. See you guys.