Transcription
Hello, it's Crito and I hope you are doing well. We are going to take stock of the altcoin situation in general. What is the theme we are currently experiencing? Are we entering an altcoin season or not? Given that the indicator has flashed, that's it, in altcoin season, we will come back to that. What has concretely happened each time we have gone above 75? Are we really in a good altcoin season or rather in a pump and dump as we are used to at the moment? Concretely, what is happening? We will review all the necessary indicators for altcoins and we will necessarily start with Bitcoin dominance. Yes, Bitcoin dominance, it represents the strength of Bitcoin compared to all cryptocurrencies. An essential indicator where we have entered a downward phase when we zoom out. Here I am on daily. We can clearly see that we have an acceleration phase, so really a valuation of Bitcoin dominance throughout the previous acceleration phase with occasional dumps that we could see here, these drops that we find there. These drops were the moment when we had altcoins that were appreciating, and then we had a return of BTC dominance with a strong comeback of Bitcoin outperforming. And now, it's been since June 26th that we have had a very significant drop in Bitcoin dominance with a stop that is made here around 58%. We see that the bearish impulse that we find here is decreasing little by little. So this means that we are starting to potentially put a bottom on dominance to go up a bit before falling again. In any case, that's what we can expect with a recovery of altcoin dominance compared to BTC in general. When we look at the structure at the RSI level on daily, it's the same, we see that we have momentum that is restructuring upwards before a relapse as we have had here. So we are a bit in a pattern that looks a bit like the same thing with breathing periods for BTC. So this does not necessarily mean that altcoins will fall. No, it just means that BTC dominance will regain some ground. So Bitcoin can push much harder or fall less hard than the rest, either way. It matters little. But what I mean is that Bitcoin dominance will take the lead, and then altcoins will follow. So this is the first indication we have. Second indication, the structuring at the Total 3 level. Total 3 represents all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and Ethereum. Look closely at what will happen next with Total 2. You will see a truly impressive difference where we see that, that's it, we hit it last week here. A small acceleration, we took the liquidity of this top. Now, this is important because each time we have taken the liquidity of a top, whether it was here with this top, we see that we had a breather, can we have the same thing here? That is to say, a breather for altcoins before being able to move on again. It must be taken into account. We see that we have repricing windows, that is to say drops that we could have, mainly on the structuring of the weekly candle we have here. Let's zoom in. Hop, here, we see it very clearly there. So, we could very well retest this part before moving on again. This means a BTC that would perhaps breathe a little less strongly, so it would fall a little less strongly than altcoins, and altcoins would have a very significant drop, more important than BTC, hence the correlation between the two. When we look at the RSI, we see that we have something very powerful. And when we look conversely, hop, on the weekly dominance RSI, you will see that the RSI clearly marks a drop, a break compared to what we have known with a dominance that is falling, that continues to fall. So which globally marks the long-term trend of dominance which will decrease little by little by the end of 2025. On Total 2, which represents everything outside of BTC. We still see that we have a long-term structural change compared to Total 3. We see that the taking of the top here was done in two steps and we went to look for the previous top of 2021 thanks to Ethereum which outperformed during this period. Ethereum which is struggling to regain ground. Currently, we see that we have a very strong breathing zone, mainly linked to ETFs. When we look at Ethereum ETFs, we see that we have new injections of liquidity, and these injections of liquidity allow us to have a restart for Ethereum. But clearly, as long as we haven't regained ground as we were doing in the previous weeks, it means that Ethereum will not outperform the market and in any case will struggle a bit. This will be directly felt on Total 2 but also on Total 3 because we had a coin that pushed very hard, which caught up, in fact, part of the delay it had compared to BTC and which did not bring all the altcoins with it, something we had seen historically in previous cycles. So it already shows us that there is a gap on this side. But then, since it is a repricing, that is to say the fact that it is catching up, it would mean that on the next acceleration, we would be here with altcoins outperforming. So we would have a Total 2 that would push hard, much harder, with a Total 3 following. Now, what will also be interesting is to compare Total 3 and Total 2 with here, the altcoins, which has a completely different structure. When we look at altcoins, we have not at all gone to look for this top, and similarly, we are very, very far from the top that was left in December 2024. So this means that the outperformance of this summer is mainly driven by Ethereum and the top 10, and that we are struggling a lot with everything that is not in the top 10. So this explains to us that some altcoins, a majority of altcoins, all those that are not in the top 10, so 99.9% of altcoins, are globally underperforming, and this is something that is changing. We see that the RSI here is changing. This is something that we see, hop, we change, that we also see on the dominance of altcoins, and which gives us, in fact, the share of other cryptocurrencies in the total market. And we see that we are slowly regaining 8%. It's starting to be complicated, it's difficult, it's always a very complicated zone. But if we validate the bullish breakout and a re-acceleration, in fact, we will have a market change and we will certainly have altcoins that will rise quietly to around 10%. And then we will truly have this notion of altcoin season. That's why we need to pay a little attention to what is happening here because historically, in 2021, we had very long periods of altcoin outperformance. But when we look at what happened in 2024, we clearly see that it was just a pump and then a breather. Similarly, a pump and a breather. Wouldn't it be the same here with a temporary outperformance of certain altcoins, not all altcoins. We see it clearly here in the last 90 days, the top 50 performances. Well, we see that BTC here is at 8.3, and we see that the majority here will be a handful of altcoins that will outperform BTC, and the rest will be negative. So we clearly see that there is a separation in how altcoins function. Here, not all altcoins are performing. I think many of you have realized this throughout 2024 and especially 2025, and it will be even more true going forward. And indeed, that's why I'm offering you five guaranteed projects, five cryptocurrencies that will certainly perform by the end of 2024. It's in the comments in the description if you are interested. We also explain the selection methodology we had for these different projects. But in any case, when we look at the entirety of Total 3, of Total 2, we can say that we are indeed seeing a structural change happening, coupled with dominance. Perhaps in the short term, it might be a bit complicated, but nevertheless in the long term, we see that a breakout is indeed happening. So by the end of 2025, we should have a good surge in altcoins, and perhaps before that, a strong rise in Bitcoin. We have some altcoin setups structuring themselves everywhere, and mainly in the altcoins, we see that there is still underperformance, so it represents more risk but also potentially a stronger upside as a contrarian play. There are interesting setups, but you must especially pay attention to your risk management. And if you want me to analyze certain altcoins, you choose one, you put it in the comments, only one, and I will take the one that was mentioned the most and I will cover it this week. This is important because yes, we have good setups, but it is imperative to have good risk management, especially when we have already had overexposures to altcoin seasons and each time we have had very violent breathing phases. We have some that dominate the market, and when we look at BTC dominance, we can ask ourselves if we are not entering a short-term Bitcoin dominance before returning to an altcoin season. We have finished on altcoins. If you like my video, don't forget to like it, it's very important. Subscribe if you haven't already, and we'll see you very soon.