Transcription
Bitcoin is at $74,000 and has been stuck in a compression triangle since Monday. We're going to look together at what's currently happening with Bitcoin. We have very interesting things. We are practically redrawing the exact fractal that we worked on at the time between November and January, just a little faster. So we're going to see what's happening. Are we in the same scenario, that is to say, the construction of a trendline then a bullish excess before reconnecting with our bearish trendline and then resuming a downward movement? Well, we're going to try to look at that. But for now, for now, we need to be very, very vigilant. You know I have a quantitative approach, so we're going to look at a lot of indicators together. Liquidity, whales, Black Rock flows, ETFs, on-chain analysis, macroeconomics, all of that in this video. So, let's get started right away. So here, I'm on a 4-hour chart. What's interesting is to see that the Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten a bit. This shows us that we are expecting volatility on the 4-hour chart. On the daily chart, they are expanding. This means that the volatility we've seen in recent days, I remind you that we had a full week of gains on Bitcoin. Nearly 14% increase between our local bottom of $65,500 and reaching $76,000 yesterday. This consecutive day of gains. Yesterday, we made a wick with a potential close of this 8th consecutive day of gains, but ultimately not. A pullback, retesting our resistance level of $74,000, which is now becoming a support zone. And what's super interesting, if we switch to a 15-minute timeframe, is to see here, hop, a compression triangle forming precisely at the contact of this 250-period moving average, this EMA 250 on 15 minutes. What's super interesting is to see that here, we are truly in the process of having a strong hand-weak hand exchange. We are in the process of having a distribution with a peak in this redistribution zone that was supposed to take place in the $74,000 to $76,000 range. And it's not by chance, it's linked to this large liquidity zone that we identified some time ago in our investment circle. So there you go, you see here $74,000 up to $76,000, precisely $75,500, and we've fed on all this liquidity, on all these aggressive sellers who had positioned themselves for a long time since our March 4th peak at $74,000, and you see that since then, we've recovered a lot of selling liquidity, and we're reaching a delta that is green, a positive delta. We observe that approximately 67% of the liquidity is around the Bitcoin price, around this current $74,000. And we have 67% of the financial amount represented by buy positions, and therefore only 33% corresponding to sell positions. So we have twice as much chance of recovering the liquidity below as above. In any case, if we're only talking about this liquidity zone, you know it's not the only indicator that matters, but it's still very important, especially in range phases and especially in current phases where we have very, very little volume. And this very significant lack of volume, well, it has a major impact because it's very easy to manipulate the price. And so, in this context of significant volatility, etc., those who wish to do so, don't hesitate to open an account with our partner Bitunix. I'm telling you about it because it's an exclusive partner. I decided to work exclusively with them because I find it to be a quality exchange, an exchange with a lot of liquidity, which doesn't do what many exchanges can do, which is zero commission, but when you buy or sell, you'll have a huge spread between the price actually displayed and the real execution price of your order. So, liquidity is very important. It's a reliable exchange, and it's also very clean. So, those who want to open an account can do so via the links in the description, and if you do, you'll have the opportunity to get our complete technical analysis training, over 7 hours of training, which is offered to you from the moment you create an account via this Bitunix link, which is in the description. Thank you. And so, who will manipulate the price? The whales, the exchanges, and they will have a field day, especially when we have liquidity zones that are so significant with truly important trader behavior. So, I've just finished the briefing with our investment circle members. So I'm going to start from scratch to show you a bit more quickly. But you see that here, we had a very significant increase in the cumulative volume delta, which shows us on perpetual contracts that there was a very significant increase in the number of buy positions on perpetual contracts. This comes at a time when we had large buying phases just here, just here, and just here on open interest. This open interest, which denotes an increase in the number of positions taken on derivative contracts, what does it show us? It shows us one thing: that we have speculators, people who take trades rather than actually accumulating Bitcoin in real holdings, who are active in the markets, and it is mainly them who have driven this increase in Bitcoin's price since our retest of our bad range at $62,800. At the time, it was February 28th. Well, since February 28th, for about 3 weeks, we've been in a phase where derivative contracts are taking the lead. Derivative contracts are taking over, and they are the ones accentuating this bullish movement. You see that on the spot CVD, there's no real demand, no major recovery. This also comes at a time when funding rates are very hesitant. We are in a rather fragile neutrality. So we go back to positive, to negative, to positive, to negative. This means that we have a lot of positions being created for sale above our heads and for purchase below our heads. And so, obviously, when we create so much liquidity, market makers, with this low volume and this completely weak order book, can decide to increase, decide to launch buy positions, decide to enter with sell positions to fluctuate the price wherever they wish. And that's why we have so much high volatility. You see bullish phases like this one, like this one, like this one, bearish phases, well, precisely like this one, like this one for example, like this one, or this one for example, which shows us that we have liquidations to carry out in both directions. We have a lot of people who are too aggressive, and if you were wondering whether we were in a bottoming phase, an important bottoming zone or not, well, generally, this excess of positions on derivative contracts needs to fade. The open interest that we've seen decreasing for a while now needs to continue to decrease. You see that we generally bottom out when we manage to find stability in terms of open interest. So, the open interest on Binance is still at bottom levels, but you see that it's still at comparable levels to those we had at the time when we were still relatively higher, around $80,000 to $90,000 during the customs duty panic in April 2025. If I look at all exchanges, hop, let's look at that together. Hop. Okay, wait, I'll show you. All exchanges, you have it here in orange. Well, we had a purge, that's obvious, but you see that it's still incomparable to the purges we might have had during these bear market phases back then. Well, we had a very, very significant rise, and so here it's in dollars, but if I show you here in coin, so in Bitcoin directly, well, you'll see that we are still quite high, and the bottoms we found at the time, whether in July, well, in July 2024, in April 2025, March-April 2025, well, you see that the open interest was much lower, and the same for the phases where we bottomed out after the FTX fight, well, for me, for me, we are still a bit high, and this shows that we haven't really purged the negative sentiment completely. We see that we've had a slight return of euphoria, well, I won't say euphoria, but of bullish momentum on Bitcoin. We see the Fear Index going back to 26%. So, it shows that well, it's spring, there's a little bit of positivity again, etc., so that's very good. But the problem is that when this positivity arrives in very important resistance zones, I remind you that we've just broken our range high and we're still in very important resistance zones. Well, this is quite, quite concerning because we should, we should still be in a zone where people are more in profit-taking phases than in very significant buying phases. And for now, that's not what we have. If we look at liquidity over the last 48 hours, we see it forming above and below us. But if we look at the last week, well, you'll see the result is clear. We have a lot of positions that have been created below us. And this means that over the past week, we've had some sellers who entered and placed all their stop orders between $74,600 and $75,500. So, they all got liquidated, and now we only have buyers left. And buyers have a first zone, a large liquidity cluster located between $72,500 and $73,500. And here, a second one located between $70,000 and $68,000. And so these two zones act as magnets. They entice exchanges, arbitrage firms, market makers, liquidity providers. All of this entices them to come and recover all this liquidity, to feed the liquidation cascades to recover all these zones. And this is not insignificant, it potentially shows us that there's fuel to go a bit further. Especially since, as I told you, the euphoria reflected in the Fear and Greed Index is rising slightly into the fear zone and leaving the extreme fear zone we've been in for a very, very long time now, for over 40 days. Well, you see that funding rates are starting to rise. So, the financing rates on all exchanges are starting to rise, and that's not a good sign because, as you know, at the top of a range, we're supposed to have negative funding rates to continue rising. And you see that here, well, that's exactly what we had. If I zoom in a bit on the behavior of funding rates in recent days, well, you see that funding rates were negative. And it was when we started to return to positive that we had a correction. And here, during this entire phase, during the 7 days of gains, we had negative funding. So, a majority of people on derivative contracts were sellers. And the fact that these people were sellers, well, it fueled this bullish rally that could go up until the moment when the majority becomes buyers, since the sellers exited their trades or were liquidated, or hit their stop losses, and so we could have a bearish reversal in the coming days. We see it on the whale side. Here I show you the chart that shows whale positions versus retail. Whales versus small portfolios. When this indicator shows significant peaks, it means that whales are strongly buying while retail, small portfolios, are more short, are more selling. And so, obviously, you know it's better to be positioned the same way as whales rather than small portfolios. And so, when we have a very significant increase here, it tells us that we are gradually approaching the bottom. And you see that the bottoms were found in very, very significant excess phases where retail was massively selling and whales were massively buying. This happened exactly the same way at the bottom of $60,000. And what's interesting is that the behavior we're seeing now, that is to say a very significant drop in this ratio, is something we had exactly in a similar way at the time between our $86,000 to $98,000 zone, as we saw this ratio decrease, and we had whales taking short positions and closing their long positions, while retail did the opposite. They closed their short positions and took long positions. And so, this imbalance is being created, which is really, really troubling because there's a truly disconcerting similarity. You see here when I put the two images together, we had a trendline here that supported the price for a long time. We never went below it. We managed, if you see here, we had a trendline, this one, okay, that you see, that you see broken at that time. We broke this trendline, settled behind it, continued a bullish trend, went above this 4-hour EMA 250 period, we crossed back over, we made an excess, and then we went down. Well, here, you see that it's exactly the same. We have a trendline that is formed, you see, in this way since our bottom. We have this trendline right here. When we look at the previous trendline, well, we've managed to break free from it. We're back above this 4-hour EMA 250 period, and that's it, we're slowing down. So, are we going to go and test the contact of this trendline? We have a major zone confluence since, if we look at Ichimoku on daily, we'll see it, but we have our SSB, which you see right here, the Chiku Span B, which is at $79,000, so there's potentially an interest in recovering this zone. At the time, we recovered the Chiku Span B before turning around. It's what it's for. It's an important resistance zone. So, potentially here, it's more of a zone for lightening up, taking profits, or taking shorts, rather than a zone for bullish continuation. But it's possible we'll have a continuation zone. In any case, if we were to have a continuation zone, in my opinion, we would need to at least reposition ourselves on the Tenkan or Kijun. So, we should at least have a movement that brings us back to our support of $70,000 to be able to rebuild a more sustainable bullish phase. In any case, here, if we even switch to weekly, you'll see that we have an important zone confluence since our weekly Tenkan, this famous blue curve you see right here, it's exactly in the same place as our daily Ichimoku Span B. It's also exactly in the same place as the peak of this weekly candle of February 2nd. It's this candle from that week that currently defines our range phase. So, we had a short-term range that was right here between $66,000 and $70,000. We had an extended range between $74,000 and $63,000, but the real large range is between $60,000 and $78,000. So, are we going to go and test this range high before going back down? I don't know. What I observe are probabilities. And you see here, if I show you the variations of this indicator, so here we are still on our whales versus retail indicator. And here, we're going to look at the variations, how much positions are being taken or not on this indicator. You see here that this indicator is increasing very, very strongly. So, this means that yes, we had a lot of whales taking positions, but they were taking them little by little. And suddenly, they pressed the buy button very powerfully. And this happened precisely, precisely at the bottom, well, on November 19th and 20th. Okay? It happened exactly at that time, and that's exactly when we bottomed out. Similarly, they closed their long positions they had just taken at $60,000. They closed them massively here at $71,000, at $91,000 at the time on the rebound. We had a short-term rebound, and what did we have? Whales massively took their profits while retail said, "That's it, we're going to have a V bottom, we're going to the moon." And so, in fact, it's this alternation of behavior that we observe directly through this indicator, and it's truly the strength of this indicator, made available by Alfractal, which shows us this major strength from whales compared to retail. The power they have in the market. You see that when they accentuated their position taking, these were local bottoms, and when they took profits massively, these were local tops. We had the local top here at $94,000 and the one at $98,000, which occurred precisely at times when whales were taking short positions. We had the same behavior on the $60,000 to $70,000 range, the one we are currently experiencing, with long positions that were massively taken at $60,000 and then massively sold at $71,000. And you see that for a long time now, we haven't really seen any recovery from whales. Whales don't believe in this bullish movement. In any case, whales are not the ones fueling it. There's a balance between small portfolio positions and whale positions. And if I show you what happened, for example, at the bottom in April 2025, well, this bottom was marked precisely by very significant long position taking by whales. Don't think it's only during downward phases. You see here, hop, I'll show you right here. Well, it was in March precisely here. You see that Bitcoin rebounded, and despite the rebounds here on April 10th, 2025, we had massive long positions taken by whales, and this showed us that there was an interest in holding this $84,000 level to go up again. And this is something we don't have. Here, it was the same. At the time, we had major long positions taken despite the rise, and this allowed us to have an upward trend for some time. This is also what we had in this phase in 2024. If I can show it to you. Hop. If I can show it to you. So you see here, we had very significant buy positions from whales on the price increase. So, just after our bottom on the rebound, we didn't have a massive lightening up. We weren't in a "I buy the rebound and sell, I buy the bottom and sell the rebound" situation. Here, we had "I buy the bottom and I buy the rebound." And so, this showed us that we had the possibility of a more sustainable upward movement. This is also what we had here after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, where we had very significant purchases from whales. And so, what we observe here is something that unfortunately is not happening. The current rebound is not synonymous with massive buying by whales. And so, this somewhat corroborates the thesis of a potential retracement, a pullback to these levels, or potentially going a bit higher, it's possible. But we still have a strong interest in first recovering the zone here, which is a major support zone at $65,700, but obviously our bad range at $63,000, and why not the famous liquidity zone that has been waiting for us for a long time between $50,000 and $62,000. So, this is really something I will be watching in a context where, well, the Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten a bit on the weekly chart. So, it's still obviously not very, very tight, but on the daily, we were very, very tight. We've expanded for now, but well, are we going to hit this Ichimoku cloud before finding a bottom during this second quarter of the year? Well, that's precisely what I'll be very, very vigilant about. On the macroeconomic level, this week, we have the famous speech from the US Federal Reserve on maintaining or not maintaining long-term rates. The key rates, I tell you, will not move. There is a 98.9% probability of no rate cut at this meeting. And you see that there is growing uncertainty linked to geopolitical uncertainties, simply between the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel. We truly have major uncertainty. This is reflected, in particular, in this famous meeting, the October 2026 meeting. You see that we have a huge probability spread. We have probabilities of rate hikes that have just appeared. So, potentially, we are pricing in the fact that inflation is rising. We've seen it for a few days, a few weeks, inflation is rising, and it's not going to get better due to this oil that continues to remain around $100. You see that we are currently stabilizing, but stabilizing quite high. We are stabilizing at $100 at a time when, if we go back a bit in the past, I'll put it on weekly, but you see that we were in a context where we worked the $55 to $65 per barrel zone for many months and many years. Okay? We're talking about 413 days where we were between $70 and $55 per barrel. So, the fact that we are at $94 per barrel currently, even if it's far from our local top of $119, well, we are still for the moment very, very high. And so, this revives inflation fears, and inflation means potential rate hikes. And so, we would potentially have a significant spread, well, we have a significant spread: will the rate hike be sustainable? Will the war end? Because we know that Donald Trump, whatever he says, is not very dogmatic. That is to say, if he sees his portfolio start to decrease, he tends to change his decision quite quickly. But the problem is, he no longer has control. He no longer has control over this conflict. He has handed it over to Iran, which has decided to mine the Strait of Hormuz, to fortify its defensive positions, and to massively attack US and Israeli resources and infrastructure. So, there will obviously be a lot of uncertainty about the duration of this conflict and its impact on the global economy. So, this translates into potential rate hikes at upcoming meetings, potential stagnation, potential rate cuts of how much? 1, 2, 3, well, one or two or three potential rate cuts. So, 25 or 75 basis points rate cut. Well, it's precisely this growing uncertainty that is reflected in the US markets. US markets are currently suspended at the 6700 point level. But it's plausible to say that well, there's a lightening up. You see it. The daily chart is very clear. We were in a zone where we saw a slowdown in the rise until roughly the fourth quarter of 2025, and since the end of January 2026 and our peak of 7000 points on the S&P 500, well, we are lightening up, and we see that the pace of lightening up is starting to intensify. We are forming an inverted parabola, okay, which shows us that there is a lightening up, a reduction in risk level. This is seen with the S&P and Nasdaq falling sharply. A Russell 2000 that has reconnected with its past resistance, which has now become support at 2500 points. This shows us that, similarly to how altcoins are suffering but holding on, US small caps are suffering but holding on, and for now, there's no panic, no cascade. I think, given the chart, that this end of the week should see the S&P 500 return to its 5550 point level, potentially touching this 250-day moving average at 6500 points. We have a large support zone here that could potentially slow down the price. But we still have a very, very bearish trend and a reduction in risk. So, for now, I don't see the US market rebounding very strongly yet. We have significant liquidity zones here at the 6500 point level. A zone we recovered in November 2025, also in October 2025 and September 2025. So, in my opinion, recovering at least this zone before recovering is the minimum. That's why I don't see Bitcoin rising strongly, even if we observe a decoupling between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Well, for now, I don't see Bitcoin establishing a real bullish trend in such an uncertain context. We also observe this on the Accumulation Trend Score. It's obviously something not accessible to everyone. You need a premium Glassnode account. Similarly, the indicators I was showing you on Alfractal are paid indicators. It costs about a hundred euros per month to subscribe to Alfractal, which is a very, very powerful platform. Glassnode is the same, about a hundred euros per month. So, these are obviously things that I centralize on my end so that people in my investment circle don't have to have accounts on these platforms. So, you see here that we have a significant distribution. This Accumulation Trend Score is only decreasing. We are at 0.0, very close to zero, significant distribution phases. You see that we had exactly the same distribution at our local top of $97,000 at the time, at the beginning of January 2026. Well, you see that we are observing exactly the same thing, exactly the same protocol, that is to say, a slow rise with distribution happening at these levels. And you see that distributions generally result in corrections. Why? Because this indicator actually sums up buy orders. If you have a buy order of $1 million and $1 million of sell orders of $1, then you'll have the same thing, that is, $1 million in buys and $1 million in sells. But in one case, you have a single order to buy and 1 million orders to sell. Well, this will show you that we are rather in an accumulation phase. Large portfolios are more likely to be buying since you have a large order of $1 million versus many small $1 orders to sell. And so, what we observe here is exactly the opposite. The large orders, the large orders that are currently in the market, well, these large orders are sell orders, and this is easily observed. Here you have orders from whales and large traders on derivative contracts. So, here I'm only looking at spot orders, and you see that all these lines are massive lines that are holding back the price. You see that for a long time, if I filter a bit to look at the largest orders, you see that we are slowing down at these levels of $75,000 to $74,000 for quite clear reasons. You observe here the market bouncing precisely on levels, making wicks, and bouncing precisely on the $74,000 level. And look at this, we have orders of over $5 million that not only reject the price when executed, but what we observe is that the order hasn't moved, okay? So, it was executed and then it hasn't moved. So, we have orders that come and are recreated. These are probably iceberg orders, with orders displayed at $5 million, but it's probably an order of $50 million, and when you touch the first one, the second arrives instantly, then the third, then the fourth, then the fifth. This allows whales to camouflage their orders. This is something we observe very often. This iceberg order. You have the possibility to do it on many exchanges. If you have large portfolios, well, it's a good way to ensure that this type of chart cannot visualize, cannot see if you wish to position yourself or not. So, you see here that Bitcoin is breaking out of its compression triangle with a return to the $73,105 level. That's what I was telling you. I was telling you to be cautious, to be cautious with this type of movement, since currently, we'll try to look at it on Bitcoin on a 15-minute timeframe, but you see this compression triangle we were talking about, well, we're breaking it, we're breaking it downwards, and we're potentially in a phase where we're going to recover all the buyers' liquidity. So, be cautious nonetheless. We have inflows from ETFs, notably from Black Rock ETFs. You see Black Rock's portfolio increasing its Bitcoin holdings. So, that's rather positive. But Black Rock can't do everything. If we look at apparent demand, the number of Bitcoins bought and sold globally, is the demand more positive or more negative? Well, you see here that we have more negative demand, and Black Rock can't do everything. This context of significant selling unfortunately favors bearish phases, since you know that Bitcoin price rises only when there's a positive imbalance between the number of buy positions and sell positions. So, I'll stop here for this video. I hope you enjoyed it. If you wish to join us in our investment circle, you can do so via the links in the description. You have all the information, you have our short-term strategies, our long-term strategies, the Always In strategy, and you obviously have access to my real-time portfolio, my market exposure, my indicators, private briefings that generally take place three times a week, briefings of over an hour of video, about an hour of video, which show you a global market overview without noise, without Twitter news, etc., or with minimal Twitter news, so as to be able to truly understand market fluctuations and to protect yourself and have optimal risk management. You also have the option to join us and subscribe to our newsletter, which is free. So, if you wish, don't hesitate. You have the link in the description for that as well. M.