Transcription
Hey everybody, look up in the sky. It's a bird. It's a plane. No, it is me. Infinite possibilities here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. I'm the Einstein of Wall Street and we're here with my man Dan Ives. This is Einstein and Ives breaking it down to the max. My brother, >> this guy. Nobody like this guy. This is the guy. This is the guy. The legend.
Right. So anyway, you know what? We look, you know, we couldn't be more excited to be here closing out 2025. It's been our first full year together that we've been talking about markets, talking about volatility, talking tech, talking Nvidia, talk, just talking, right? Trying to make it accessible, you know, and and fun for you all to sort of understand and what's going on here because it's, you know, sometimes it's not that easy, right? And it can be incredibly timid intimidating. And so, not only do we want to educate you, motivate you, and inspire you, but we'd love you to, you know, at the end of the day, this is a place where everybody should be invested in. This is this is where you create a portfolio for life. You know, whether I I don't like the word financial literacy or education that way, but at the end of the day, there's nobody better than Dan to really give you an understanding of what's going on in markets in in tech and and that and and then and together the dynamic is extraordinary. We we've had an amazing year. >> It really seriously it's been unbelievable.
You know, if you really think about this last year and a half or almost two years, it's, you know, it's really it's trying to get investors through the ups and downs of this market. And it's so easy at points to get way too nervous, maybe even way too euphoric, right? >> And I think it's just so important, especially in this time with we're in year three of an 8 to 10 year build out of the AI revolution. >> You know, I love that you say that because that that's the point, right? you know, it is a roller coaster, you know, and at the end of the day, we're not here to scare people. We want to diffuse that anxiety and we want to uh break it down so that it's understandable and that it makes sense because I would say since we've been doing this, which is probably going on two years now, I I don't think ever in in surely in the last 25 years has every possible thing been thrown at a market that a market could handle. We know that markets can handle anything, right? except really anxiety, you know, unknowns and and and and surprises, right? But clearly every possible thing has been thrown at this market over the last two years. And so what we've done is we've helped people navigate it to make an understanding of it.
>> And even on the AI, right? I mean, if you think about like >> Oracle $100 bumpers, open AI and now good is bad. That's actually views a negative. And now you have you know call it 3 months later people look at Oracle CDS spreads on their debt to see >> the the point is it's never here >> in terms of going to the moon >> right >> it's never here in terms of crashing right >> and the reality is like look we have two more years of this tech bull market right >> and it's going to be one we're going to go through these deepsek moments these fed these liberation day like that's it's all but that's how you make money if you're able are navigating.
>> If we think about every pullback, consolidation, selloff, and mini crash, which is what we sort of described this last February, March, April, 20.8% selloff over 11 weeks, >> net net, it's been all of them have been buying opportunities. Exactly. Right. While even you and I, and we admitted it, we may have culped all day long. When we were in the middle of February, March, and April, we were not clear what what it looked like on the other side of that. We talked about it. It was a self-inflicted economic armageddon caused by the way that Mr. Trump disseminated the tariff uh uh information. Right? My gut is that if he had come out and said, "Look guys, I'm the new sheriff in town. I'm a pro tariff person, right? I believe that we will benefit it from it in the long run. We may have a little pain for a little while, but just bear with me. We'll be okay." The market would not have responded the way it did. the fact that he threw out these massive 185% uh he he was scaring everyone, you know, to the point where we talked about it, Ken Griffin actually said, and he's a huge supporter of Mr. Trump, that his his manner and the way he did things eroded, right, the the by America mentality, right, which was one of confidence and and and >> well, and also it's at a point where for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech, >> right? So it's at a point where us when it comes to AI revolution because of Nvidia, because of Microsoft, because of Palunteer, because of OpenAI, right, is here, >> right? >> So, you know, and I think even what you're seeing in terms of selling into China with the H200s and the administration allowing that, right? >> Because the thing US government recognizes if you let China >> just build the stuff themselves and they don't need us, eventually they'll narrow that gap. And that's that's the balance between, you know, I'd say like national security issues, but also capitalism from a US tech perspective.
>> So, are we trying to uh are we trying to forge a new relationship with China when it comes to this or are we letting them go in their lane and we're in our lane or or a little I mean, >> I think it's a little of both. I mean, the reality is, let's say you trade here all day long and let's say half your team I took away. >> At first it would be devastating, right? >> But eventually you'd learn to adjust, >> correct? I would adapt. >> And and and that's the thing. You don't want China to adapt to not wanting Nvidia chips, >> right? >> Cuz guess what? They'll have Huawei chips. They'll build them. So right now it's like we are still less than 3% penetrated in the US and less than 1% penetrated globally in terms of AI revolution right this is the opportunity in terms of Nvidia Palunteer Microsoft to go after other markets globally and I think the administration you're seeing obviously a ratcheting down attentions and that's a great thing for I think this bull market.
So you you look we've got obviously there look we know there's the mag 7 which has been the tech tech tech names of the flavor of the moment for the last couple of years. We know that obviously Nvidia is best of breed with Jensen the the godfather of AI. We know that that there we've gone through some some you know es and and flows as far as the relationship of Nvidia and selling chips to China based on what the president is allowing or not. We know that we've had the deepseek moment. We know that there's the Huawei uh situation as well. But what what I'm seeing which is fascinating is that companies like Google and Meta and Oracle uh uh have all invested and that they are not AI necess AI companies but they've all invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the data center uh uh um future correct because they're visionaries right and they see the potential they're going to need look but what's also happening is we know that Nvidia is there's not a lot of democratization it's more of a monopolization But but AMD and other chip players, you could argue even Google on the TPU side. I mean, they're going to also play play into I mean, it's Nvidia now, but the rest of the CH chip ecosystem >> will also >> will happen. So, it will be on it will be online soon in a couple of years. >> Exactly. And look, you have 3 to four trillion that's going to be spent next few years. You have more money being spent in the next two years. on on >> on tech infrastructure, >> right? >> In the last eight years combined. >> Okay. >> And that speaks to like you can't just look at stocks and say they're expensive. You have to do it relative to the growth. >> Right. Exactly. They will grow into those valuations. Right. Exactly. >> Right.
So which makes perfect sense. My question is we did see that so they all put big money into now we do know that in the last earnings report Oracle right had really good earnings. However, they announced a massive investment into the hundreds of billions into data centers and that added a $100 onto their stock. We know that that was the second largest in capitalization uh uh uh rise that in history relative to that day, the $247 billion day that Nvidia had. >> We've seen that all the air be sucked out of that trade, right? because last week uh they announced that there's going to be a delay in those data centers that they're going to be building. They obviously had already locked in demand by a number of the secondary tertiary companies, correct? That had bought up their chips. Correct me if I'm wrong. >> 100%. But the reality too is that these things can move out a few months, a quarter. It doesn't meet you. You have to be able to understand this is like I said it's year three of an 8 10 year B. There's more data centers under construction today than active data centers, >> right? >> And it speaks >> and that's huge, right? It speaks to the demand. >> It speaks of demand. It also speaks to the opportunity about the second, third, fourth derivatives playing out across the rest of tech.
Okay. So, we also know that uh in a recent conversation that Jensen Wang, CEO of Nvidia, talked about that the next play is the energy play. How are we going to fuel these data centers? Is it [clears throat] going to be nuclear or is it going to be solar or it's going to be nuclear? >> So, so right the reality is like to put in numbers 3% of US companies have gone down the AI path. >> Okay. [clears throat] >> When you get to 20% based on current energy, >> right? >> There there's >> you run out of energy. >> You you don't have enough. >> Okay. That would mean that you based on the grid people's lights would go out in their houses as d >> if data centers go online our lights will go off. So, we're going to have to make a choice unless we find an alternative. >> And it's nuclear to me. And it's nuclear. >> To me, nuclear, that's what China is going. >> Solar and grid could maybe do some things around the edges, but nuclear is ultimately going to be the answer for the US. And I think right now the only thing that stops or slows down the AI revolution in the US >> is energy. >> That is energy. It's not capital, >> right? >> Use cases. Demand a bubble. Demand. It's it's >> it's the energy. Okay. Cuz at the end of the day, if you can't turn on the lights, you got nothing going on. >> You can build you can build all the infrastructure, but if it can't run, it's it's not it doesn't have value. >> And I think a big area in 2026 is going to be like how do you play energy? Who are names that could be the answer? >> That was my next question. >> And and I think that's >> are you allowed to tell me? I mean, do you know I mean are there companies that come to N to light that you can mention that would be new companies that actually support the nuclear grid? >> I think I think GE VOVA is a good example. >> GE spin-off, correct? >> I think um iron is another example. Aqua clearly is a nuclear play as OK. But um okay l but then but then there's going to be many others that that maybe are private today >> that I think will be public and that's yeah so the thing is like that that to me is going to be one of the biggest opportunities right >> going forward.
So anyway, we interviewed yesterday there's a guy there's a a magazine called Payload. Payload is a magazine uh that deals with all the stocks in the space space, >> right? And we were talking about the uh SpaceX IPO >> and then we were talking about tech and he we gentleman he they've made a now an arrangement with the NYC that they're going to be doing some stuff analyzing a lot of the space stocks that are here hoping to bring uh uh SpaceX IPO to the New York Stock Exchange. He did talk about data centers in space right which is a fascinating thing which is actually a thing now right it was never a thing because of the the risk was way offline but recently they've come to grips with the fact that solar so what does it mean data centers in space means that you're going to build you're going to use uh solar from space if we're building them in space right in space apparently there is nothing there's no nothing that the efficiency of the solar energy source up in up in space is huge, right? There's no impediments to it. There's nothing, you know, there's no gravity in between it, so there's nothing blocking it. And that if we could take the risk out of that and build them, what what's your feeling on that?
>> Look, I mean, it's going to be it's it's another area we talk about where like this is a fourth industrial revolution, >> right? from space to nuclear to energy to AI to the consumer to autonomous to robotics, >> right? >> Like that's that's where it's all going. Like look, I remember you've always said during like liberation that we were going to Jetsons and then maybe that we were going to >> Flintston Flintstones, >> but we're going back to Jetsons, >> right? >> You know, and when you look at the Jetsons, like that is real, you know, like that's >> it will become real in our lives. You said it when I met you the first day when I came to you and said, "Explain to me about AI. I don't get it. Are kids going to be outsourced?" Right? People are talking to me, youngsters, high school and college students are asking me like, "Is this AI thing going to make it difficult for us to find jobs when we come out?" And you said absolutely they're wrong because AI is going to benefit our lives way more than it's going to jeopardize our lives. And there's going to be way more opportunity. Now, the opportunities may have be a little bit different. It may be in the AI sector, but it's going to be a little different.
>> And that speaks to the opportunities that, you know, I think as an investor, it's very easy to get shortsighted with just stock movements, right? >> You have to just be able to recognize like who are the winners. >> How do you play this market, >> right? >> And use sometimes the white knuckle moments to to really, in my view, those are the golden opportunities. >> Yeah. So, we've seen it. No, we're not done yet. We've seen over the last year that we've gone through the es and the flows. We've seen those those those Armageddon moments. We've seen massive pullbacks, many crashes. Yes. And even through most of them, you you kept saying it was even when we talked about last week when the probability of an interest rate cut got down to 15% and then spiked up to 85%. And you did say that the probability of us not you were so sure that a cut was happening irrespective of what the whole world was chattering that the chance of us not getting a cut was the same as you playing for the Dallas Cowboys and me being the center for the Knicks in the 2526 uh season. So we we knew it was going to happen and you were right.
>> Although you are although you are very good at horse in terms of playing >> basketball I've got a center court hook that I did in high school. They brought me in for one shot a game, >> right? They called me Doc Tuck. I was the the team doctor, but they brought me in for one center court hook and I always got it. It was amazing. >> Dude, me and you, we be legends in the JCC basketball.
>> So, anyway, let's talk for a second. Okay, so let's we put that to rest. We're in the last two weeks of the year. We've gotten through we are in the midst of obviously an interest rate cutting cycle. We've now had three on the year. So, we're just 75 basis points have gone been cut this year. uh um how do you see what what is the trajectory and what is the effect going to be how fast and what sectors are going to be affected most in the market by that by those cuts in your opinion? I mean, you could say like interest rate sensitive financials or even like some of the areas like healthcare that can move higher, but I continue to think like you're going to get more capital that's going to come into the market. It's going to be bullish for tech. You're going to see more tech companies doing converts, debt offerings, raising money, right, >> which is going to put >> literally a quarter of a basis point or 3/4 of a basis point is enough to make to jump start to catalyze that move. But it's but it's also the trend because Hasset's going to come in likely. You're going to have a dovish president. You're going to have a lot more cuts.
>> And look and I just think that's going to that's going to be bullish for this tech trade. >> For the tech trade any other any other part >> you say financials, banks clearly >> housing. H >> well surely >> banks housing are clearly going to benefit. >> Okay. And real estate for sure.
Now let's just close it out. So we're closing out the year. We've got two weeks left. Right. My gut and your gut was that we were going to actually hit like around an Dow 50,000 the S&P 7. We're not there yet. There is a chance that we'll get there in the next couple of weeks. We are sputtering a little bit here and it could look I the the month of December has a couple of factors that are it must never be overlooked. You've got tax harvesting, >> right? You've got profit taking in a year that's up 17%. Right? You've got uh you've got any number of things that are look people have gone through the last six weeks. A lot of people closed their their funds in end of October, some closed end of November. We did go through that weird transition in November where we looked we lost we gave back 6% of the year's growth in about a twoe period over that palunteer selloff and all that madness about AI being a bubble, right? Which was just insane. Are you as do you do you have any I know you said to me when I asked you can you make any sense of the fact that mainstream media ran with the story that because Palanteer sold off 8% that suddenly AI is a bubble >> it's because the re it's because of the reactions of the stock but in my opinion as somebody must spend so much time in Asia and sees the demand it gives you the ability to see through that >> to see the forest through the trees and know that there is no bubble >> it's not a bubble You have two more years as tech bull market. It's a 1996 moment. Not 1999 2000 bubble.
>> Okay. So when the the la the next two years of this of this industrial re self-proclaimed industrial revolution comes to an end, what's it going to look like on the other end? >> Then you then you're going to have other phases of growth. But it's it's year three, >> right, >> of an 8 to 10 year buildout.
>> Okay. Okay. So even though the revolution may only last two years and the re revolution will not be televised it will be it will be seen here on Einstein and Ives >> of course but the point is it's trillions being spent and it's my view this is a tech bull market that lasts at least another few years but it's a 10-year buildout of the AI revolution around the world >> now we did see that this postponement of a lot of this data the data centers are 5 years out right we do know that a lot of people think okay well so it's going to take 5 years before any of these guys go online but what the people are are really selling them the whole concept short is that once they start to build it right it is going to start putting people to work I mean that the whole people start right it's not like suddenly the building appears construction individuals jobs >> ripple effect >> right it's a huge ripple effect so look at this point wherever we close out this year right it's been a great year >> it's been a great year but it's just we're Not it's not the end. It's just it's we're still in the early stages. Like I've said, AI party start at 9:00 p.m. >> Now it's 10:30 p.m. Party goes to 4:00 a.m. >> And while that happens, there will be issues. Glass in the dance floor. DJ stops playing music. Cops come to party, break it up for the loud music. But you'd much rather be in the party >> than a than a bear looking through the window saying the party is not that fun. The Bulls and the Bears meet up at 6:00 a.m. Bulls had a lot better night than the Bears. >> The Bulls had a lot better night than the Bears.
Okay, so last thing. We're closing out the year. It's been a great year, you and I. We've really We've given out so much information. We've had CNN. That was a revolution in our own right. We actually, you and I single-handedly took CNN's ratings to the highest level of a financial TV show in history, which has been amazing. But more significant to me is that since we've done that, people stop me on the street every from age 15 to age 80, the guy in front of the synagogue on Chabas on a Saturday or the kid going to lacrosse practice and go, I saw you on CNN. I loved hearing that stuff. It finally made sense.
>> Well, because also but it puts it because we're able to put it in ways that people understand. That's that's the main cuz people watch that when they watch like Aaron and CNN they're like how does that matter for me? >> Correct. >> That's what we're doing. >> Yeah. How is it matter for you? And >> and dude, you're and dude and look and you're able to also me on tech side market, but you have such a pulse to what's going on in terms of the market, your decades and decades. Everyone you talk to, I think combined it's a peanut butter and jelly. It's a peanut butter and jelly moment >> with a little caviar. >> With a little caviar on top. You are the greatest man.
So ladies and gentlemen, Einstein and Ives will pick it back up after the first of the year. We're going to take you through. Look, we are Look, I I I I'm just beginning, right? My game. And I know Dan. >> So, we're going on the road like we're going we'll be in we'll be in Vegas. >> We'll be in Vegas on at the end of February, >> right? And and that's going to be a big deal. And we are going on the road and we have a lot plans to do any number of big things. We've got clothing lines. He's already got one. He's got your new sneakers. I got my new sneakers coming out. I've got my clothing line. You know, at the end of the day, we're living the dream. Yeah. Look, at the end of the day, it's not a matter of how, you know, it's not a matter of how many uh uh toys or bells and whistles you have. It's how many people you can impact in a positive way and open up their lives to some kind of enjoyment. like you know David Meltzer who uh was a guy who they made the Jerry Maguire movie about embarked after having the high highs of his life to the low lows embarked on bringing joy uh uh to a billion people in the world you and I are doing it really literally one person at a time right there you go there you go you're good you're good you're good and you are good you are the man thanks everybody that's all we got to say we're going to give you the wrap-up this is the big breakdown Einstein and Ives from the balcony at the stock exchange that's all I got to say about that.