Transcription
Welcome, guys, to another quick episode of the weekly stock market recap.
So, what on Earth happened today in the stock market? We've had some crazy moments here, so we're going to just do a quick highlight. The stock market is collapsing, right? You know it. Things are crazy. There's fear everywhere, and there are feelings all over social media, Twitter, X—things are crazy out there.
But I'm here to say: Don't panic. Do not freak out. Don't sell. Don't run for the doors. The party is just getting started. Stay close to the door, grab a drink, chill, relax. You don't lose if you don't sell. The last thing you want to do is sell right now as things are crazy. The market will bounce; it will come back up. It always does. We'll look at that in a minute.
We're going to look at the day, analyze what happened, and see where we're going. A key highlight is that President Trump gets inaugurated in the next 10 days, so we're in a huge season here.
It was a fun day because the Federal Reserve came out today with one of their announcements regarding jobs reports—the non-farm payrolls. It's always hard to see here at 8:30. There it is. They came in with more jobs than were estimated—by like almost 100,000 jobs. So, crazy actual forecast. Again, open to revision; it's going to be revised next month. The market knows that; the market feels that.
So, the stock market dropped significantly after this. A lot of uncertainty, a lot of fear coming in. Other key data that we saw today: the unemployment rate slightly dipped a little bit, which might have helped push the market down a bit during midday. The market did rally a little bit towards the end here, towards the close at four o'clock here, Eastern time.
So, all in all, not a crazy day, not a crazy bad day of negative data. Things were positive for the most part, but it's the employment numbers, right? Can we trust this number? Was there actually that many jobs in December, or are they going to revise that lower like they did back in September?
So, a lot of mixed feelings. Next week, next Monday and Tuesday, we've got some more data coming in. We'll look at that later. Some other things to keep an eye on: consumer inflation expectations is one, and then core PPI might be one to look at too. We'll keep an eye on that CPI data there on Wednesday, the 15th.
All this will lead into, of course, Trump's inauguration on the 20th of January. So, yeah, kind of a crazy day. The 10-year note yield jumped 10 basis points. This is what's crazy to me. I mean, the Fed pivot we got last September—we all called it. The whole of FinTwit or FinX lost its mind, right? Why did the Fed pivot so early back in September? What is it trying to achieve here?
Well, the basis points are now up by 120 points. So, is the Fed pivot dead? It looks like it. It looks like it's dead. They're clearly not working like their agenda, what they said they wanted to do. We'll show you that in a second; it's not working. They clearly have messed up here.
So, these are all serious questions we have to ask ourselves as investors: What's happening? Who controls this chessboard game? What's the Fed up to? What's the Fed's role? What's Trump's role? What's our role? And how do we make money? How do we navigate this and actually make money this year in 2025?
Funny to note is Zuckerberg—Meta—red pill swallowed. He is full Meta, full conservative, full MAGA, either by force or by will; we don't know. But Mark Zuckerberg has changed completely. He was on Joe Rogan today, I think, and he was really calling out the abuse in the Biden Administration towards social media, especially Meta, with censorship and social media strong-arming them to censor material.
So, today, he has completely U-turned. He's reversing Meta policies towards DEI, censorship, inclusivity, and diversity. He is adding Community Notes, which is huge. So, Zuckerberg seems to be following Elon Musk. I want to say Daddy Musk because it looks like he is, which is great to see.
I think Zuckerberg knows the next four years are successful with Trump as your ally. Palantir here—everyone's darling stock—has dropped significantly since its all-time high on Christmas Eve of last year. So, pay attention to this 20% drop since then. That's huge.
Let's note this because we want to see if we have chances to maybe buy into these companies, and that's a big one we like. Palantir—we want to add that to our portfolio. I need to get a better system than this because how the heck do I highlight this? You kidding me?
Anyway, the Magnificent Seven—they're all looking done as well. It's been kind of sideways. We'll dive into that. Delta Airlines is kind of a sleeper here; they reported good earnings, so their stock jumped by 7%. Who would have thought Delta Airlines would be doing well?
So, let's switch over real quick, and we'll look at Palantir. The first thing I want to highlight—again, I put up a quick visual here to see that the drop has been 21% as of the low today. We can change that, maybe adjust that to where we currently are—so 20%, so thereabouts in the 60% range.
Do we buy this dip? Is Palantir going to drop further, perhaps into the 50s? We don't know, right? No one knows. We zoom out a little bit on the six-month chart. We'll look at this quickly. It's healthy to see the pullback. We enjoy the pullback; we want to buy in more.
I'm a little bit concerned about this mid-range right here. Is it possible to see Palantir go a little bit further into this territory, into the 50s? Because there's not a lot of resistance at that level. I personally will be DCA-ing in on these drops, so that's going to be an opportunity for me to buy in and add to my long-term portfolio for the next five or ten years.
I love the company; I think they're going to make a lot of money. We've already covered them too. Their earnings are great, technology is great, their stock is great. They're deeply embedded with the government, with Trump, and with other companies. So, Palantir, if you don't know anything about them, definitely just look it up. There are better YouTube videos on Palantir than I can do right now.
We're watching that Magnificent Seven. Nvidia had the brunt of it; it had the worst of it today. I think it dropped 3%—major selloff from 150 down to 135 really in this past week. So, definitely interesting to me because I remember the hype. You know, think about it. Think about the timeline. Jensen right here—super hype, right? Everyone's super excited.
Palantir—or sorry, Nvidia—to the moon! It's going up! Let's buy in! Let's buy in! Like AI, AI, next generation! And then, plummet down. So, this is what you got to be careful about—day trading, swing trading. It's dangerous because no one knows the market, and you could get bit pretty hard here if you're buying expensive stocks on hype or sentiment alone.
You got to zoom out, see the bigger picture, find the right investments for the long term. There you can see the one-year chart. I mean, Palantir—sorry, Nvidia—is still in that 130-150 range where it's been bouncing for a few months. It hasn't been as low as $91 for a while, which is sad. We'd like to buy in here again in the 90s, but this is just something to pay attention to.
Know where you are; know where you want to go. Right? Apple again down 2%. This is what I focus on, really. I want to see how these companies are dropping. Are they in like a 10% correction territory? Can we look at this real quick and see where 10% is?
8%—it's not really the best placement, I suppose, but you're talking about an 8% retracement from December 27th. So, that's interesting. Keep an eye on that because if you see this going further towards the 10%, 15% across major stocks, then maybe push the panic button and look to be more conservative in your investments.
And double down into these companies that you like and want to hold for a long time. Not financial advice, of course—just one guy sitting at home trying to figure out how to make money and where the market is going to go.
You can see here Amazon sold off, Microsoft sold off, Google sold off. Meta has been bouncing today primarily because of Zuckerberg being red-pilled. Then, T had a bit of a dip and sideways movement today but was otherwise unaffected.
Our cheap stocks—we got a bunch that have been hit hard today. I'm not really invested in most of these; I just kind of watch them because I want to see how the market's going. Sign AI is one I will note. Sign AI has had a huge drop—crazy parabolic move to the upside and now with a significant drop here as of today.
These are things that we want to pay attention to. What is causing Sign AI's drop? Lack of innovation, I think. Rise too high, going parabolic, and some mediocre unveiling at a tech show in California.
See if I can do this again real quick. So, like a 41% drop from its all-time high—that's pretty significant. I think it's going to go further into this territory right here, go a bit lower.
So, yeah, this is all kind of fun, really, right? Being selling off—lots of red, as you can see. Lots of opportunities. RKB down a little bit, not too much. HS down a little bit.
And then we want to look at Bitcoin, of course. Bitcoin having a good day, really—up 2.3% after a pretty huge selloff on Wednesday. Again, Bitcoin's holding this high 90s. If you can notice this pattern, really, is it going to go higher back into the 104s, the 106 like it did on Christmas?
The Christmas rally— is this the peak? These are all the questions we're asking. Are we going to see Bitcoin drop into the 80s, the 70s, the 60s? This is why 2025 is going to be an awesome year because there could be huge opportunities to make a lot of money.
Index funds—V is the one I like to focus on the most. Bit of a flat day, nothing too crazy. A lot of money is being hedged for Trump's inauguration. People are waiting, taking their profits, gathering their cash, setting up their year.
It's all a game of chess, really, right? Setting up their board game for this year to kind of buy in heavy and DCA whenever they want to.
Let me change this to our lowest ones. AMD was one I wanted to talk about real quick. AMD—I saw all over social media: buy, buy, buy! Great stock! Get in! Get in! Go on to the moon! Probably like it would have been a few months ago, October, this period of time.
Yeah, it would have been this period of time. This is why you don't just follow the hype. You do your own research. Understand these companies. AMD—I was considering buying this company because of all the drama online, but the more I looked at it, the more I was like, "Well, why am I going to buy this?"
It dips, it gets bought. Serious dips keep going down. I personally think it's got further to go. I need to investigate the chip sector more, but the more I read and understand of the chip sector, the more I ask: Why is AMD going to go higher than 10-15? How do you compete with Nvidia and the other chip companies?
I don't know. It's just something to think about. I don't like the popular narrative if it's not supported by fundamentals. It's a good company, of course, but Nvidia seems to be far, far out there. If I'm going to put money into chips, I'm going into Nvidia because of what they're doing.
And then Sofi—I don't think we talked about this yet. Sofi is sticking in this range, this $14 range, $13, $14, $15 range. It doesn't make sense because this company is killing it. Their earnings are on fire. I think they've actually brought forward their next earnings.
Funny enough, they brought it forward. Why? I would say because they want to show the market that they're killing it, and they're not scared; they're not worried. With its next earnings on the 27th, I personally think it's going to jump up to the $17 range and hopefully make some nice profit.
So, that's it for our poty ones. Mr. D, quite a bit into the 327s. On Bitcoin, of course, I guess the most important things—there are a few companies I'm watching this year because I want to keep an eye on them. We've kind of really talked about most of them.
Nike is one I'm keeping a close eye on too. I've always been a fan of Nike; I think we all have, of course, you know, Jordan and the brand. I think there could be a good opportunity to pick up Nike for the future. I would like to get it back down here, which—sorry, it is in that $71 range.
So, it is back to its all-time lows. The popular narrative—I did hear a lot of folks saying buy, buy, buy in the high 70s. So, here we are about a month later, and it's back to the all-time lows of last July. I think that's the all-time low in recent history, really here in May of last year, right?
Yeah, May of 2024 last year. So, keeping a strong look on Nike because you're buying in here. I'm so sorry; I misread the time. That's 2017, 2016. It's back at those lows.
So, think about that. Are we seeing a buy? Are we seeing a major buy opportunity here for Nike based on the past five years? Technicalities—look at this. Earnings have been up, up, up. Dividends are decentish. I think the income statement is positive and doing reasonably well.
Let's pull it up, actually, real quick, and key on our visual stocks because this is one I've been meaning to look at in a bit more detail, and I want to see it right now while we're recording this live. No filter. Revenue is mostly flat—slight dip, but nothing crazy.
Palantir revenue is good; the Converse revenue has been coming down. That makes sense. I don't see anybody wearing Converses these days. Cash flow—not bad, not negative; it's good. Revenue is the important one, of course. This is not bad data.
Again, we're thinking about the low back in 2020, where it was in 2020. So, revenue in 2020 is right here. So, they're making more money since 2020, but they're trading at the same level. We need to do a deeper dive into this. Net income is good; cash flow—cash to debit.
Again, shout out to Visual Stocks, Alejandro—fantastic website. Please sign up and become a member here, whether you pay or not. Do the free one, but this is a fantastic website.
So, Nike is a big one I'm watching this year. I'm going to do a standalone video on Nike. I would like to learn more about it.
So, that's really it for the market. Crazy day. It's going to be a fun weekend to relax, and then we go again next week, right?
A few important things on Twitter to talk about: the Cobi letter. Subscribe, sign up. This guy—he's fantastic. This whole company is great. Really good overview here. I'm going to actually repost this as a quote: must-read from really, again, like we talked about.
The economy posted more jobs in December by 92,000, so huge, huge uptick. Six months average of 2024 in the Fed rates were delayed. The Fed messed up, so you can sort of see here.
The narrative of why the stocks crashed is the economy doing well. Will there be revisions? The Fed's policy statement from September 2024 since they did a rate cut of 50 basis points for the first time since '08.
Again, we were all highly critical—not just the Cobi letter, but it seems to be their mandate hasn't quite been successful in supporting maximum employment. So, a lot of things going on here, of course.
Yeah, I think the Fed rate cut is officially over; it's dead. The pivot—Powell may have messed up when he caught by here the 10-year treasuries soaring, which sucks for a lot of us.
We'll skip that. This one—here we go. Gold prices in the US dollar are rising in a sharp upward trend. Never really happens. Inflation is back, uncertainty is rising, and gold has become the global hedge.
Interesting. So, a lot of data to think about over the weekend. I would say get a glass of bourbon, grab a cigar, chill, relax, and focus on your future, your investments, and do what's best for you. Do what's best for your family and make sure you're investing in the right stocks.
So, hope you have a wonderful weekend, and we will see you on Monday. Peace!