Transcription
We are living through a crucial moment in crypto, and now is when good decisions will be made. So, I know it might sound a bit paradoxical since you're watching this video on YouTube, but now is when you need to start being wary of everything you see on social media. I've been impressed over the past week by the number of French-speaking and English-speaking YouTubers all talking about a market reversal, a bear market that would start now in crypto, when in reality, we're about to start rising strongly on Bitcoin and altcoins. In recent videos, I explained why the Fed was checkmated with quantitative easing that would have to restart, a rate cut that would accelerate, and therefore, liquidity that would increase in the market. And when I talk about liquidity, I'm not talking about this Global M2 right here, which is an indicator that many, many people follow and which represents liquidity that has been increasing more and more this year but which is not taken into account in terms of monetary creation year after year. What I mean by that is that this is the raw creation of liquidity. However, what we want is to take into account not only the liquidity that is being created but also all the liquidity that has been destroyed since 2022, since the bear market with super high rates and liquidity drainage, especially by the Fed in financial markets. And reality is not like the M2 chart; reality is something else entirely. Reality is more like this. We are going up, down, up, down in terms of net liquidity. And we see that after a dip of several weeks right here, we are bouncing back and resuming an upward trend in terms of liquidity year after year. We haven't even returned to levels that equaled the levels during the peak of euphoria here in 2021. And that's normal because I explained in recent videos that the cycle was delayed. If you haven't seen my recent videos, go watch them. You can watch the last three, and I explained why, in my opinion, the cycle was delayed, prolonged because of what happened during Covid. We won't go back over that, but what happened during Covid pushed back the debt cycle. And a pushed-back debt cycle means a pushed-back liquidity cycle. So why are we talking about liquidity? Simply because liquidity is the most important macroeconomic element for Bitcoin and altcoins. You have here increasing liquidity over time with the price of Bitcoin represented by these red dots. And it's true that despite sometimes rather high, sometimes rather low discrepancies, the average shows a correlation of 90.1% between what Bitcoin does and liquidity. With such a high correlation, nothing is as correlated to Bitcoin. So, we are indeed looking at the major macroeconomic element to determine if Bitcoin will go up or if Bitcoin will go down. It's also important to understand that crypto is truly the riskiest and most speculative asset at the moment. And therefore, it's normal that when liquidity decreases, the crypto market is the first market to suffer. Because professional investors divest, they first dump the riskiest asset in their portfolio, and therefore, they dump Bitcoin and altcoins first. Now, what we can see regarding this liquidity is that precisely this liquidity will tend to grow even more and even more over time. Here, I've put a small chart that shows the number of central banks in the world that are lowering their rates, and this number is 85.33%. 85 out of 100 central banks worldwide are constantly lowering their rates, and this creates liquidity. It restarts the manufacturing cycle, it restarts this phase of economic cycle expansion that we need to have assets that will go higher, even higher, always higher. What was interesting, and I had already shown this once before, is this famous chart that precisely indicates globally where we stand in the manufacturing cycle, this famous market cycle that always initiates bull runs. You have here the red line which represents the number of central banks cutting rates or lowering rates. And you can see that at the moment, we are really in a phase of enormous growth with about 71% of banks whose last move was a rate cut. So we are indeed talking about a rate cut. Why do we have 70.6% here while before we had 85%? Simply because the last chart takes into account the behavior of banks over several weeks, several months. Whereas here, we are really looking at something very recent, and we are talking about a last move that was a rate cut. We are not even talking about central banks like Switzerland's, for example, which hasn't cut rates because they are already at zero but which maintains its rates at zero. Maintaining zero rates is not counted in this calculation, and that's why we go from 85 to 70%. Nevertheless, the 15% difference relates to banks that already have super low rates and have decided not to necessarily lower them further because they can't, but who have at least decided not to increase them. And what we can see is that here in 2020, as soon as we went back into the positive in terms of the manufacturing cycle right here, it launched the bull run in August 2020. The same here in 2016-2017, the same here just before the exit from the subprime crisis, etc., etc. As soon as we go back into the positive, we are in an expansion phase. And what's super interesting is that we see that we've just gone back into the positive this October, which should launch the bull run. What's even more striking if we zoom in is that we can clearly see that since the end of the bear market, in reality, we are not in a bull run. We are really in a recovery phase of everything that was drained before. Liquidity was removed from the market through many mechanisms, and it is coming back. We are simply putting back into the market what was taken out. But you see that we are not at all at the levels of 2021 yet. Why? Because precisely the cycle is delayed. Now, there is still liquidity being created, and the question is why is Bitcoin rising? Why are altcoins not rising? And so the question arises: what is the asset that has drawn the most liquidity and is truly benefiting from this monetary creation around the world? And the answer is gold. You can see here that we are in a parabolic phase for gold, we are in a euphoria phase. I think you've seen images of people queuing in the streets last week to buy gold, when we are really at a market top. And it is indeed gold that has attracted a major part of this liquidity. I explained this mechanism to you in this video 13 days ago, "Bitcoin Still Undervalued," where I explained 13 days ago that gold was reaching the top of an 8-year cycle, that there was a crossover between the gold cycle and the cryptocurrency cycle, and that with the various fear mechanisms regarding currencies, especially the dollar, this monetary uncertainty led central banks, led large institutions to buy gold first. And that's why, like in 2020, we saw a huge acceleration of gold first, and then an acceleration of cryptocurrencies. If I superimpose Bitcoin on gold on a weekly chart, you will be able to see this same mechanism. We first had gold explode right here. If I zoom in a bit, we first had gold have an enormous upward phase with a blow-off top phase right here. And once gold started to calm down, what did we have? We had Bitcoin strongly take off because there was a liquidity trickle-down. It must be said that Bitcoin at the moment is the second-best non-inflationary asset. What I mean by that is that when there is a loss of currency value, investors, central banks, and others want to preserve the assets they have because the majority of assets today are still correlated to the dollar, are pegged to the dollar. This represents 50% of global transactions. So if the dollar collapses, then institutions, banks, and others must at all costs keep assets that do not suffer from this mechanical inflation. And the least risky asset that is not inflationary, or at least the least so, is gold. And so we find a mechanism where first the least risky non-inflationary asset takes off, but this doesn't continue indefinitely. Based on various data, there are inevitably zones where gold reaches a zone that is clearly overvalued. It becomes much too expensive, while another asset that is more volatile, certainly, and a bit riskier, but also non-inflationary, remains flat, and that asset is Bitcoin. And that's why we see gold take off first. That's why we then see Bitcoin take off once gold stabilizes. And generally, when these cycles intersect, we are also in a phase of economic expansion, and once Bitcoin takes off, altcoins will take off as well. So we have a slight lag due to the lengthening of the cycle, which I believe will end in 2026. And this pattern is still visible today. We have Bitcoin, which has indeed performed well due to ETF adoption, enormous adoption by public companies that are only acquiring more and more Bitcoin, even more Bitcoin, central banks starting to buy it, and also this narrative of non-inflationary assets, which has led to enormous buying pressure on Bitcoin. But Bitcoin hasn't yet managed to perform because gold was attracting all the capital. And to tell you how overcapitalized this market is, if we assume that gold drops by 5%, and all the liquidity represented by this 5% goes to Bitcoin, that would represent a 50% profit increase for Bitcoin. So it's really huge. And what we are waiting for now is a fall in gold here so that the liquidity trickle-down can go to Bitcoin and then to altcoins and start this famous bull run here, as in 2020. When we zoom in and take gold on a 1-hour chart, we had a kind of top last weekend and a sell-off with a structural reversal and the beginning of what appears to be a structural reversal in gold. Now, it's a bit different from these structures right here because just here, we had a small sell-off in the form of a V-shaped sell-off. Whereas here, we clearly have an M-top forming, with liquidity being sought, a first dip that doesn't break the structures, a second top that wasn't surpassed, making a higher high, a break, a break of the structure right here with again, right after, a retest on a rebound, a retest that perfectly respects the order block that is right here. We continue to dip, we make a lower low compared to the low that was here which established the higher high. So we really now have a bearish dynamic showing, and at the retest level, we are preparing a structure that I call a step-by-step structure. That is, we are rising slowly but surely, leaving a trend line and lows intact. And we have already broken this trend line this morning with, in addition, a rebound at the MA50 level right here, which is a resistance zone. So the next step for me, I won't say it's clear because nothing is ever 100% certain, but in any case, we are really drawing zones and retest zones and a price dynamic that will really establish a decline in gold, and therefore, it would be very favorable for Bitcoin. We could really have, for the first time since the beginning of this, a clear sign that Bitcoin is truly ready to take off with altcoins right behind it. I've taken a small chart here that really illustrates what's happening between Bitcoin and gold. And we can clearly see that precisely when gold takes off enormously and then calms down, Bitcoin begins its parabolic phase. Right here in 2020, gold takes off, it calms down, Bitcoin goes into a parabolic phase. In 2016, gold calms down right here, Bitcoin goes into a parabolic phase while gold is in a broad range and liquidity is not flowing massively into it. So here, we should have the same mechanism at play. Now, it's true that we hear everywhere that past performance does not guarantee future performance. It's not because a scenario happened in the past that it will happen in the future. The criticism I have of this reasoning is that everything that happened in the past with similar macroeconomic events is conducive to generating the same results. This is called statistical reasoning. We look at how many times in a situation similar to the one we are in now, how many times did outcome A occur compared to outcome B. And if we see that outcome A occurred 80-90% of the time, a pattern emerges, and the pattern is as follows: it may seem logical, the same causes lead to the same results. And at the moment, we have a macroeconomy that is similar, perhaps not to 2020 because in 2020-2021, we had liquidity creation everywhere. We are starting to enter what we had in 2021, but the current macro is clearly similar to what we experienced in 2016-2017 with Trump in power. Trump, who waged all these trade wars with foreign countries and China. Trump, who devalued the dollar strongly, central banks worldwide and institutions losing confidence in the dollar and investing in gold first before going to Bitcoin. We really have all these mechanisms repeating themselves this year, 2025. Regarding liquidity, I also showed you this chart which precisely represents the liquidity that should be created from late 2025, early 2026, which demonstrates that we are truly in a delayed phase compared to the cycle where we were clearly in the negative in terms of liquidity. Remember, this is the first chart I showed you. We are gaining liquidity, yes, but when we compare it year after year to what happened, in fact, we are simply regaining what was drained. We have just moved back into the positive, which means that we are currently creating more liquidity than 1 year, 2 years, 3 years ago, but it has just turned positive. And this liquidity creation, which will happen through falling rates, through massive buybacks by the Fed, by the Treasury, by many institutions of Treasury bonds, government bonds, all of this to create even more liquidity in the system. All of this will really favor a very speculative late 2025 and early 2026 in my opinion, with liquidity that will indeed rise, rise, rise. It's important to know that Crossborder Capital is the institution that created all the charts you can see regarding the liquidity cycle. It's something they are very knowledgeable about, they study it a lot, and therefore, this data is highly reliable. We also have here something that strongly contributes to liquidity creation, and that is what are called Treasury Buybacks. Treasury buybacks are simply bonds that are repurchased by the government. So it can be by the Treasury Department, by the FIS which has a bank account called the TGA, on which we will actually make a video on Wednesday, which has a procedure for repurchasing Treasury bonds to re-inject liquidity into the monetary system. The TGA bank account is currently full to the brim because of tax revenues and many other things that go to the state. Now, it will empty gradually, or even very quickly. And here we have the buyback procedures initiated by the US Treasury. And you can see something: precisely, we are really on an upward trend. The government is buying a lot of its own bonds, and who is it buying them from? It's buying them from selling counterparties, which are banking institutions, foreign countries, everyone except the US government. And of course, there is an exchange. There is an exchange between the Treasury bonds that are bought and cash, and this cash will allow for investment. And we see that this stimulus in terms of monetary creation is really gaining momentum and that we are truly entering a period where liquidity will become very abundant, more and more, even more, always more. Just before finishing with Bitcoin, know that the Discord is reopened, you can join it using the link in the description, and the private groups will also reopen after almost 5 months of closure. The deal is simple. You are part of the private groups, and with the team of moderators, there are 7 of us. We do all the macroeconomic analyses, on-chain analyses, technical and fundamental analyses to tell you which crypto to invest in, at what entry price, what is the exit price, all your strategies to adopt and follow to achieve the highest possible returns. Knowing that we aim for about 150 to 200% return per year, even in extremely difficult years like 2025. So it's a real opportunity, join the community because the groups will close again right after, and the last time we closed, it was for 5 consecutive months. The goal is to bring as many people as possible with us and to move an entire community towards financial profitability in the crypto space. So, click on the link in the description, join us, there are many member reviews, you can see. It's excellent, and we look forward to welcoming you to Bitcoin. What I really like, and what hasn't happened for a while, is that we can see that something happened last night. Right here, between 2 and 3 AM Paris time, the Asian session reopened. And what we can see is that there was a small manipulation move to take liquidity, and then in the Asian session, we are taking off. Now, I'm recording this video, it's 8:57 AM, you can see, in 3 minutes, the European session will open. But what's super interesting is to note that in the Asian session, there is accumulation and buying. And this, if you look at the last few days, or even the last few weeks, has happened an extremely rare number of times. In terms of correlation, what's also great is that generally, 8 times out of 10, the American session follows what happens in the Asian session. And so, if we have a bullish session overnight here in Europe, we can expect to have a bullish session in the American session as well. And so this indicates demand. In addition to that, in a context that you know, an October context, asset rotation, a top in gold that seems to be forming, and liquidity zones to be sought on Bitcoin, much higher. The only point that bothers me at the moment is this famous imbalance right here, which extends from around $116,000 to $119,500. You know what that means? That means it's the last zone where short-sellers can hope to reverse the trend. If we zoom in on 4 hours, I think this imbalance zone, well, it extends a bit. It extends up to $121,000. So it's within this range that we'll need to be really careful about what happens, and once we're in it, we'll need to be really careful about the on-chain data we get to determine if we're going to have a Bitcoin pullback or if we're mature and ready to break this summit at $122,500 with a new ATH above $126,000. Currently, this is the scenario that is most probable for me, with a bit of anticipation. Now, what will happen here will be really important. It will be normal here to have a short consolidation period, or even a rejection, to find a new support and make a new ATH. I sincerely don't think we'll break through all at once, even though it's possible. If you want to stay as informed as possible about what will happen with other probabilities, I invite you to like the video, subscribe to the YouTube channel, and that way, you can follow everything that happens on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, the publication dates of the videos on YouTube. I'll stop here for today. I wish you a very good day and a good start to the week. This was Trid. Ciao. Ciao.