Transcription
Hello everyone. So, as an exception, today I am sharing with you a private brief that I am doing for the members of my investment circle, my private circle. So you will at least be able to understand a little bit about the ins and outs, what is happening in our investment circle, and understand a bit better if it could interest you, if it's a strategy that you like, and if this kind of indicator, this kind of service could interest you. If you wish to subscribe, if you wish to join our investment circle, you have all the links in the description to do so. And, if you have any questions stemming from all of this, do not hesitate to contact us. We have a link to our Telegram channel, which is free. You can contact us via Telegram for free. The circle itself is a link you get afterwards when you join. But you can contact us, whether by email or by Telegram, and you have the link to our Telegram in the bio of our YouTube channel. You have all the explanations of what the investment circle is. It is our preferred communication channel with our members, in which we obviously share all our analyses, the cryptos we are looking at, our watchlists, real-time indicators at the moment we buy, we sell, etc. So, do not hesitate at all. I leave you with this video in which I am sharing a brief with the members of our investment circle. There you go, I thank you.
Well, hello everyone. I propose today a small video brief for us to go through together the evolutions of the Bitcoin price, what is currently happening. There are quite a few doubts. So I will make a small private video for you, for the group, so that you can see a little bit what is happening and anticipate the movements a bit. So we have talked a lot in recent days in the Telegram channel. We had identified specific zones. Well, obviously here we had left a lot of liquidity above the price, but but well, there has been a lot of activity. So Tuesday, yes, that's it, Tuesday, October 14th, I was sending you this screenshot of the liquidity. We will come back to it. But here we had a lot of liquidity below the price. So it was probable to come and recover them, to first recover this liquidity before coming back to recover what is above the price. So here, it is the buyers who have their liquidity below, all the people who bought here thinking, well, I will make it back after the liquidation cascades. They bought here, they put their stop orders below the price, and then, well, obviously their liquidity is there. And it is all the more revealing when here we had a recovery, you see that here we didn't have much liquidity, but as soon as we started to break these levels, so here if I switch to 1 hour, you will see it immediately when we started to break the resistance levels at $112,600, hop, we took off here at that moment. So I had warned you that there were probabilities of coming back here. This was Monday, so I even spoke about it on YouTube in a somewhat public way. I said, well, here we should be able to return to the level of $112,000. We even went a little lower to $110,000, consolidating again on the previous support zone. So this was obviously a trap, because obviously when we go up so quickly, well, here we have liquidity being created above and below the price. Then generally, like this, we come and punish the last-minute buyers. So this is what we were talking about. Here, you see that well, lately, we have talked about it again, we talked about it yesterday, but but we talked about it, there you go, right here, we still had liquidity that was up to around $106,000, $106,200 precisely. So, we will go directly to have a look at the liquidity. You see, we had liquidity. If I go back here to the previous week. So here I am on the Binance perpetual contract. It is the one with the most volume. You see that we had liquidity up to here at the level of $106,200. We came to recover it. We came to swallow all this liquidity once again, to come and gorge ourselves on all this money that is below the price, on all the buyers in fact, who are being punished, punished, punished repeatedly. Well, it's not very fun for those who bet on the upside. You see that here on the, let's say, medium term, here in weekly on a trading week, you see that we have left the sellers alone. You see that here the sellers are never worried, if I go back here and I display the liquidity indicator. So here, you see the liquidity that is above the price each time, it is intact. Okay, we don't come to recover it. Whereas sometimes, we are not very far. You see here, if I zoom in right here, you see that here, we had a small wick right here. We didn't come to recover it. Here, same, we didn't come to recover it. So here, we have an accumulation of liquidity. Here too, here too, we had, well, we had a few small W's. So this could tell us, and I also spoke about it in the Telegram channel, I told you here we had probabilities of going back up, because well, we had a change of mindset, that's what we saw in the order flow. We will come back to it, we will come back to it quite a bit. The video will be long, I apologize in advance, but at the same time, I think it's important for many to have a global clarification that is not just technical or fundamental, nor macroeconomic, but to have a complete synthesis on the subject. So here, we had a small switch, we talked about it with the mentality that was starting to change a bit. You see here, for example, hop, right here, we had an increase in open interest. So this means that on derivative contracts, quite a few people entered, and this happened during a drop in funding. You see, so a price drop during that time. And here, quite a few people went short. So the sellers, they necessarily, they opened their positions. How? We will put it right here. Where are they? They are here. Short positions. The seller who arrives, the typical seller who was here, who sold a bit, who is not very good, let's say. He sold, he put his sell order here when we were at the support levels. He put his stop loss just above the previous price. So this is really the beginner. He put his ratio of or tr for one, let's say, okay, let's say 2 for one. If he's not too bad, he entered the position and made profits. Okay. So this is really the beginner. The even more beginner, he sees his gains continue. Well, he lets his profits run. Okay. He lets his profits run until here. Well, maybe he will sell, we will see. Here, he therefore necessarily has his stop levels just above the price. This is what we see in the liquidity right there. He has his liquidity right here. That's why here, we have a very, very yellow bar because we have a lot of people who came to do exactly the move I'm talking about. This one. And this is visible because the funding rates have decreased and the open interest has increased. So we have a lot of people who came like this to make to make short positions. Tac, hop, tac. Also a second, etc. And this is visible here. So we had a small change because until here it was the opposite. You see here when we had increases in open interest right here. Well, it was very slight, okay, I grant you that, it was very slight. But here, we have an increase in open interest and this happened with an increase in funding rates. So this means that the people who entered here, so a few people entered, a small group, it's not huge, but it's a few thousand people who entered here. Well, these people, they were rather bullish. They said to themselves, here is the bottom, I'm buying back, it's going to go up again, I'm going. They got rinsed. Okay. The next ones here, this also happened right there on a consolidation and a slight increase in funding rates. So same here, hop, it was rather an increase in open interest on a stagnation of open interest. So this means that we have a somewhat mixed behavior. There were as many sellers as buyers who entered. Here it was the same, it was mixed. But from here, you see that we started to have the famous switch I was talking about. Here, we had an increase in open interest on a decrease in funding rates. Here, it was the same. And you see that here, well, once again, the buyers didn't understand. Well, we would like them to maintain this somewhat bearish sentiment, but you see that here, we had an increase in open interest with, therefore, an increase in funding rates and this on a price drop. So once again, here we had people who wanted to catch the falling knife. Well, I don't like that too much because again, it means we could go lower because the buyers still haven't understood. The short-term buyers, those on derivative contracts, still haven't understood and still want to buy, buy the bottom. And well, you know that when it's like that, the crowd tends to be wrong. So if we have here an accumulation of buyers and bottom buyers, well, there are probabilities of breaking this level again. Now, we are on a significant reversal zone because here we have a fear and greed index at 22%. So it's quite rare on this cycle. We haven't reached it very often. We reached it, well, previously, I think it was on this bottom. We were, no, we were at 28. Well, we are even lower, we are at 22. It's been a while since we reached 22. It was here, it was on the customs duty bottom. So, so no, frankly, it's been, here, we really have a fear sentiment that is starting to set in. But if we look here in the short term, I look for example at the last 12 hours, it will allow me to look at 12 hours of trading at the people who entered, on what type of position they entered. And here you see that well, we have a big yellow line. So this means that here, well, quite a few people have tried to buy the bottom. And so, will we have to go and hunt those who are below $104,000 again? Well, it's probable, and even quite probable. The most probable scenario is that we will liquidate them first because here you look, we are very close to these levels, and once again, you see that we have liquidity being created below the price. You see this kind of channel here. We have a channel between here and there. Well, here, same, we have it between here and there, between here and there, between here and there. And in fact, what we would like to have is precisely a moment where well, we switch, that is to say, here, the short-term liquidity is above the price and no longer below. And here, well, that's not the case. So this means that potentially, exactly like here, we are in the process of having liquidity, we could want to break it to absorb all this liquidity and in fact exhaust the buyers. I still think that well, in the medium term, we will recover these liquidity zones which are obvious liquidity zones. The market will come to feed on them. I mean, even if, even if we are in a bear market, okay, which I don't think is the current configuration, we will address quite a few things in this video and I will explain why. Before making this video, I have analyzed Glassnode with a lot of indicators. You will see, I will share with you quite a few things that I have rarely shared before, because there was no real need. Well, here, you see, if we look at these liquidity zones, I think we will recover them. Even if we have a bear market, I think what we would do is this. Hop! and go back down. Okay, I think we will do this if we were in a bear market because we cannot leave so much liquidity here and so many people winning, winning so obviously like that. It cannot be obvious to position oneself as a seller at these levels, on support, and never be worried. Bitcoin never allows that. So well, once again, I say never. Sometimes I say always, you have to remain measured. You know well, I don't have all the answers. I am sharing my point of view. I have been doing this kind of analysis for quite a few years. So, I estimate that I have some experience that allows me to understand market movements a bit better, but I am not infallible, far from it. I have been trapped. And when the price behavior is tricky, like currently, currently, the price behavior is very tricky. We must admit it. This is also why we have quite a few doubts, why you see people, some of you have sent me videos, etc. So I have watched some of them, not all of them. So this is partly why I am initiating this video. But but yes, you must understand that this is a particular situation currently. We have a huge liquidation cascade, a rebound here, we have insider trading, we have a lot of things happening at this moment. So we must keep a cool head, and it is normal that depending on the analysts, we have different points of view and different interpretations. Okay? So I will share mine, which is a more medium to long-term interpretation. That is to say, for me, this kind of movement obviously doesn't particularly please me to see a -10% on Bitcoin, -20% on altcoins, etc., but it is something that I accept because my point of view and my time horizon is longer term, and therefore if I estimate that the prices in 6, 12, 18 months will be higher than the current prices, I remain in position. There you go, I can reinforce on dips. So I explained to you, I reinforced here at the level of 107, right here. Well, we broke this level. You see that I am not infallible. But you see here, I still think that we can break this level again. What will really matter is the weekly close. Why? At the weekly level, you will see an indicator that I share regularly, and that is the Bollinger Bands. You see that we were talking about it, the Bollinger Bands. Here, I have the width of the Bollinger Bands. Right here, you see that we are in a state where the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. As long as we are at levels where the Bollinger Bands, well, the closes are within the Bollinger Bands, we can consider in weekly that it is noise. Now, it's not really noise because it creates trends, you see that here for a long time, it's been a long time since we closed above the Bollinger Bands or below, for that matter, but you see that it is still a relevant indicator. Here, we touched the Bollinger Bands and we were, we were almost closing at the levels of the Bollinger Bands. So if I find similar levels here in the coming weeks, I was looking to see if we had a particular example, but we don't really have one. The weekly is still a high timeframe, but you see here, we weren't very far from closing above. That wasn't the case. Here, we had a huge fakeout. Okay. Here, it's probable that we will have the same configuration. Okay? If we really want to shake up the market, get out all the sellers, get out all the buyers, get out all the sellers, we have to do this kind of configuration. So, I shared with you here the order block from July, which is our major support for recent weeks. I would like to see before Sunday evening a price recovery above, let's say here, $107,500. If we close below these levels, we will have to be very vigilant next week. The behavior next week is probably to lighten up if we have a pullback. Okay. If we close here and next week we have a movement like this, hop, a recovery here. Well, here, we might have to take profits. Okay, we will see based on indicators, momentum, a lot of things. So we will talk about it again in the group, but I am giving you a small indication like this. This is something I will be watching, and obviously, I will be watching the Sunday close. If we close above, above $107,500, and even more so above $109,500, I think it will mean that it was a fakeout and therefore that well, once again, it was just a trap to get a maximum of sellers in and feed on their liquidations to be able to make the next bullish move. So we will try to look at the on-chain analysis now. Well, first, I will share with you an indicator that I look at from time to time because it indicates overheating phases. Here you have, so it's called the price temperature. Here you have the Bitcoin price with phases of, well, channels that allow us to see when the price is overheating or not. Here you see that we are not yet in absolute overheating levels. You see that we usually, well, historically, we reach much higher levels. We reach, for example, the orange channel or practically the red channel. Here, we are very far from these levels. So this could mean that we still have some juice. Here, I will talk a bit more about the behavior of short-term holders versus long-term holders. What you need to know is that we often have transfers between strong hands and weak hands in the market, that is to say, well, in smart money concept, that is to say, you have the composite man. So if you followed the training, it was chapter 7 or 8, I don't remember, on Wyckoff's theory. So a quick reminder, the composite is the market player who makes the market. Well, in fact, it's more of a group of investors. The group of investors who decides what happens in the market, they are the ones who buy violently during dips and sell violently during rallies. Obviously, to generate this kind of movement, they will influence the market a bit and create phases of euphoria and phases of depression. Here, you see that we can look at the behavior on Glassnode of short-term holders, you see them here in red. And long-term holders, you see this blue curve. Short-term holders, you see that traditionally, they arrive during market euphoria phases, they buy strongly, and when we have big bullish spikes, these are generally top phases. Conversely, here, bottom phases are often marked by moments when long-term holders position themselves heavily and buy. You see that this was the case here. This is what laid the groundwork for the bottom that allowed us to have a second bullish leg on the 2020-2021 cycle. If we focus a bit on the current cycle, so hop, I will zoom out so that it is easier to read. So here, we have had short-term holders here in red who have systematically arrived during top phases. This happened here when we were around $30,000. Here too, at the time of the ETF approval rumor. Here, at the time of the halving around $70,000. Here, when we were at $100,000 and the psychological level of $100,000 with Donald Trump's inauguration in November-January, well, his election in November and his inauguration in January. And here, we had it a bit, but you see that it was to a very small extent, right here at $117,000. So on this top here, obviously each time we cross a new ATH, we attract new people, it's going to go to $200,000, $300,000, $1 million. So obviously, short-term holders arrive. What you can observe is that generally short-term holders get trapped at bottoms, and we reach bottom levels when short-term holders end up selling. Okay? When this curve goes negative. You see that this was the case on this bottom, it was the case on the customs duty bottom, it was the case on the bottom just before, precisely, the Bitcoin ETF approval rumors. And here, it's starting to be the case again. If we zoom in a bit, you see that here we are in the negative. So short-term holders, well, they are no longer here, they are scared. And here we find our fear index again at 22%. Well, there's no one left. And you see here that long-term holders, who had bought the bottom here, bought heavily. And when I say heavily, it's much more heavily than here during the $54,000 bottom. They bought heavily here, they started buying after the Trump customs duties, but here was the peak. Right here at $107,000. So here we find their buying levels. That's why it's such an important level, and that's why what I want to watch is the close at this level, and as long as we don't really have a close at this level, well, the people who bought heavily and who bought during this phase, okay, if W, my cursor has gone crazy. So I will mark it right here. When we are working on a support that has previously been heavily bought by long-term holders. Well, as long as we are at this level, I don't panic. I have no reason to panic. Okay, because here we are returning to support levels. It's called a pullback. There are always pullbacks. It's logical. And so for now, I don't necessarily have any reason to panic. Here, for example, well, we had strong buying levels right here at $66,000. If we break the $66,000 levels here, well, there is still a bit of panic on board. We still need to be very vigilant. You see that in the past, precisely, that was the real switch that happened at that moment because here we had large buying zones right here, you see right here and here we were at the time at $38,000 right here, and well, you see that here when we returned to these price levels, we consolidated, we even consolidated for a long time, and here you see that well, we didn't have that much buying in these zones. That is to say, long-term holders did not show up. A little bit, you will tell me, yes, a little bit, but still much less than in this kind of phase. So this was a bad sign, and you see that well, when we broke that, that was our real bear market. So obviously, I will monitor that. I will monitor that. Here, we are a bit in the money time. We are in the phase where we are at the levels here, $107,000, which remain major support levels. So as long as we stay at these major support levels, I remain positioned and I continue to think that we are still in a pullback, and therefore I will not sell at support, that would make no sense. So we will continue a bit here with the value days destroyed multiple. Here, it's an overheating indicator like many in on-chain analysis that allows you, well, here you have the explanation, but basically it's the behavior, it's the behavior of the different, the different, pardon me, market actors, and here you have different scales that are proposed to know when we reach euphoria levels, overheating levels, and when we are in the green here, in moments where, well, we are closer to buying levels and it's rather a good idea to buy in the long term. Well, you see that we had a top here of overheating right here in May 2024. So at the halving, we were a few days or weeks after the halving. You see that here we had overheating, and it cost us, by the way, 9 months of range. So between May and October 2024. Well, I say 9 months, but yes, I think it was between February and November. So let's say 8-9 months of range. You see that this was the case. Overheating phase, overheating phase as well. Here we had a slight overheating, because well, this indicator did come up to about the same levels as here. So this is also what made me think that we had to be vigilant here. However, here, we have deflated very significantly, and we deflated very quickly because previously, you see that between the top phase and the moment we found levels like currently, we had to drop a lot. We went from, well, I think we were around, yes, $120,000 approximately, a little less. And here, we reduced it to almost $80,000 before finding levels that were practically green again. Here, we are not very far, we haven't been very, very far from the green levels. Whereas you see that, well, the price has just consolidated. So for now, no alert on this indicator. Obviously, we will have to watch, because here again, there is really a moment when people start to switch between, is this just a bear market, is this just a consolidation, or is this a bear market. And here you see that, well, we are switching in the sentiment of the different investors. Here, quite a few people are saying, ultimately, aren't we on a simple consolidation but rather on a real cycle top and therefore a transition into the bear market. So we will look at all of that. We will continue with the reserve risk. Okay. Here you see that, well, we are still in the green zone here, in the phase where, well, there is no, there is no overheating. Okay. And it is very comparable to what we had here in the pre-mania phase in 2017. The 2020-2021 cycle due to the Covid crash and the monetary printing which was really enormous, is very difficult to compare because, well, as long as we don't have monetary printing as significant as what we had in 2020, it could happen again if in the future we have a new black swan event that forces global economies to print money heavily. But as long as that's not the case, it's very difficult to compare because here, we had such an enormous stimulus that, well, we broke everything. And here, well, when we compare a bit, so here you have the reserve risk, but adjusted, okay? Here, you have it, so adjusted according to the different cycles. You see that we are very similar to what we could have had in 2017, that is to say, here a phase of rise. So this is between our low point and we reached it approximately here. Then we stayed there for quite a long time. Here, it lasted from the month of, here, where we were in November 2015 until here in April 2017. You see that we had a long rise, but which was in fact a rather progressive rise. You see a phase of rise, a correction, consolidation, phase of rise, correction, consolidation, phase of rise, etc. Until we reached, well, approximately here, it's the moment in March, in March-April 2017, when we had the beginning of this mania phase, and we had, therefore, the overheating that arrived, okay? Real overheating, as we could also have had right here between, well, the moment of rupture, you remember the compression triangle of 2020 for those who lived it. We had a compression triangle, we were around $10,000, we were oscillating between three digits and four digits for Bitcoin, and hop, we broke it, and it took off. Okay? And there, we changed, completely changed phase. And here, well, you see that we do have phases where it goes up, but as we could have had in 2017 at that time. And here, well, we are probably like we could have had right here. You see, we were higher than the previous top, we were working on the zones, etc. It took a little while just before this mania phase, and then, well, when we broke it, when we broke these support levels, well, then it took off. And there, it was off for our mania phase. So, will it happen again? Well, it's probable because here, we are in a macroeconomic configuration that looks much more like 2016, 2017, 2018 than what we could have had in 2020. Because I see many people worrying about the fact that we are going into a bear market. The previous bear market was caused by, well, largely by the fact that the macroeconomy was starting to degrade. We had an increase in inflation, a probable decrease, a probable increase in rates that would follow. We didn't really know where we were going in the different markets. There was the beginning of, well, of the war in Ukraine. Well, that came a bit later, you will tell me, but it still came in February 2022. So we were just here, before this phase, during this support phase that we were talking about. Well, you see that, on the other hand, here when I look at the curve of reversals on the website of the US Federal Reserve, you see that here we have, well, for a long time here on the 2020-2021 cycle, we had a big phase where we had everything for the risk market. Okay, everything was made for risk markets. That is to say, people invest. People, when I say people, I mean entities, the big entities of this world, Bank of America, BlackRock, all the institutions, Hedge Funds like, well, I forgot.
his name of Warren Buffett, but ultimately, you understand what I'm talking about. Here, you have all of this, all of these entities that have invested enormously between, well, here, April 2020, post-Covid crash, up until here, March, April 2021. From that moment on, we had a switch, and this switch was maintained precisely by this fear of inflation, and so on. And you see that at that moment, we had this curve that went up. This curve is the amount deposited by large financial institutions at the American Federal Reserve. Okay? It's an amount to protect themselves. So, this is in billions of dollars. So here, you have 1,000 billion, 2,000 billion dollars. So at that moment, here, you see that we hadn't yet reached our bull run top. Our bull run top, we reached it here in November 2021. We were already at 1,450 billion dollars invested in this reverse repo. So this is a protection. In short, you should understand here that when this curve goes up, it means that financial institutions are afraid of risky markets. Well, it came back to me, it was Berkshire Hathaway, for Warren Buffett's fund. So, well, Berkshire Hathaway, they are among the people who, when they take cash out of their investments and decide to put it at the Fed, it means they are protecting themselves, protecting themselves from a potential market reversal. You see that this was the case here. Hop, hop, hop, hop, and we reached our top here, and we stayed there between July 2022 and June 2023. So, throughout this entire phase, the financial world, globally, was afraid of stock markets and wanted to protect itself. And you see that from that moment on, well, it was the opposite. You had, well, investors and so on, and the financial world that said, "No, I'm going back to the stock market because the economic and macroeconomic prospects for the months and years to come seem good to me, and I prefer to reinvest in the markets." You see that this was the case for a long time. This is what drove our bull run for a good while. And here, around January 2025, well, post-Trump's election, we had a bit of fear. Here, we're going to zoom in a bit on what happened at that moment. Here, Trump's election, we had a bit of fear. You see that this curve, which was generally bearish, stagnated, or even progressed again. It's actually linked to Trump's tariffs. There was a moment of doubt, there was doubt about, no, it's a bluff, no, he won't do it, it's impossible, and so on. He's doing this to, as he says in his book, to make a deal, and so on, and then finally, oh well, no, in fact, he's doing it. Oh well, no, he made his little chart, he presented his Liberation Day, and so on. And so there was panic at that moment, around April, May, and then the summer of 2025. And you see that since the summer of 2025, we have a return to stock markets again, and a very strong return. That is to say, there is almost nothing left at the Fed. All the financial institutions in this world are saying, "That's it, it's time to invest." And if we look a little into the past here, in 2017 for example, well, you see that the curve between, well, 2016, 2017, and so on, we were much closer to what we had here than to what we had during this bear market. Okay? So, you have to keep that in mind. Macroeconomics is good. Okay. Macroeconomics is also seen in interest rate cut paces. With, you see here, in the interest rate cut paces, an interest rate cut that is planned right here for October 29, 2025, an interest rate cut with a 97% probability of being realized. So, ultimately, here, macroeconomics tells us that we have, let's say, 2, 3, 4, 5 interest rate cuts to come for, let's say, well, you see, it's until July 2026, so by next summer, over about ten months, you have, we said, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 interest rate cuts. It's enormous, frankly, honestly, it's enormous. And the market loves that. Risky markets love that. We should reach 3% by July 2026. And what you need to know is that markets don't like stagnation, well, they like stagnation, but what they especially like is having a forecast of interest rate cuts. Okay? Markets, we know, anticipate. It's not in 2026 that we'll have a bull run because rates will be low. We'll have a bull run before because we anticipate that rates will fall, that revenues will therefore increase, and therefore, at that moment, we'll have people who will buy and create this famous imbalance between supply and demand. I'm making a quick aside, but what makes the price of any asset go up is the difference between supply and demand. It's not more complicated than that. I see many people saying, "Yes, risky markets fall if there's a rate hike, and so on." Certainly, but in fact, what makes the market go up or not go up is if there's more supply than demand, if there are more people who want to buy Bitcoin than there are people willing to sell it, the price goes up to find sellers. In fact, quite simply, the price goes up until it finds someone who says, "Well, at this price, I'm willing to sell it." Okay? That's all. It's as simple as that. So, what you need to understand here is that when you know you're going to have five interest rate cuts, you tell yourself the world will be better in 10 months than it is now. Okay? In 10 months, companies will be able to get loans at 3% instead of 4%. They will repay less debt, their profits will be better. So the situation in a year will be better than the current situation. If you know that, what do you do? Well, you buy. And if I tell you the price of your house will triple in a year, well, you buy it right away. And you don't say, "I'll buy it in 3 years because its price will have tripled." No, you buy before. So, you need to understand this. It's not the absolute value that counts, it's the dynamic that counts. And here, the dynamic is downward. So, here, we have a world that will be better in a year than it is now. So people are positioning themselves now, and if they buy now, it's now that they create the imbalance between buyers and sellers. That's why we say that financial markets anticipate. Financial markets anticipate because, in fact, if you know something is going to happen, well, you anticipate it. You don't need to be stupid. If you suspect that in 18 months there will be a war, well, you sell, okay? You don't wait until the day of the war to sell. Well, it's as simple as that. And here, macroeconomics is heading in a very good direction. It's heading in a downward and measured direction. You have three interest rate cuts by the end of the year. So, we had the first one on the 17th, September 17th. We have the second one planned in 12 days, and you have the next one on December 10th. But then you have three more interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026. A bit more, in July 2026. Well, in the first seven months, you have three interest rate cuts, and it's measured. And the market loves that because it means there will be monetary facilities for market players. So companies will be able to borrow, governments will be able to refinance, it will be easier to create growth, and so on. So everything is fine, and in parallel, it's not an emergency like we might have had during recession phases where there's panic, and the market is crashing, and therefore we need to help by lowering rates, but anyway, the market has crashed, so it's not good. And here, we have consequences that will be financial but not economic. That is to say, here, we are not in an economy of problems. That is, there is no particular rise in unemployment; there is a slight rise, but it remains measured. The American economy remains strong, and so on. So, between quotes, everything is fine for the real economy, the American economy, but the financial world is doing all the better because we will have interest rate cuts. So, this little reminder is very important to me because, well, macroeconomics hasn't changed. Okay? Here, we might be at levels of $104,500, there's a lot of fear, and so on, and I understand that. But the truly fundamental indicators, those that drive real long-term market movements, well, they are more in our favor than against us. Well, you see that inflation here also remains stable for all this time. This is what allows us to launch interest rate cut paces. So, everything is fine. Regarding Bitcoin ETFs, you see that here, we've had small outflows. I'm looking at BlackRock's portfolio. Certainly, there have been large outflows if we look at the rest, but the rest has many more retail portfolios and so on, arbitrage strategies. There are really many things happening in other portfolios, including hedging strategies. So, BlackRock's portfolio is the most revealing of accumulation or distribution strategies in traditional finance. That's why I only look at it, and I only look at the fact that over the last three days, October 14th, 15th, and 16th, you see that we've had a decrease. It's not as significant as what we might have had in the past, like what we might have had here, between February 2025 and March 2025. At that time, we really had significant outflows from the ETFs. That's not the case yet. Well, you see that I don't necessarily have any concerns at this level. I see people saying, "Yes, but the inflows are slowing down." Certainly, the inflows are slowing down, which is why the price isn't skyrocketing, by the way. But for now, there's no, well, there's no need to panic. I mean, the day you have $400 billion in outflows on Bybit, well, then you'll probably need to worry a bit. For now, that's not the case. So, from my side, I'm not alarmed by this indicator, and I still think that we are in a cycle similar to 2017. I've talked about this many, many times over the many months I've been making videos on YouTube. But you see here, we are more in a cycle like this one than a cycle like this one. A two-part cycle, incidentally, with 2019-2020, where here, well, this is a much more constant cycle, and we see it here. You see that since the bottom in November 2022, we've had practically linear growth in the price of Bitcoin, just as we had here between the bottom in January 2015, well, up to here, we were in linear growth. You see, it wasn't exponential. We moved into exponential when we left here, when we pulled back here on this blue line and left the linear trend phase for an exponential trend. And then we had the famous mania phase where all the retail investors, including myself, arrived to be liquidated afterward. Hop, we'll continue with the next part, which is the net holder position change. You see here, we had a signal that was a bit less good. Why? Because here, during parabolic rise phases, holders take profits. So, these are the curves you see in red, right here. During standard phases of, well, price decreases, long-term holders buy back. Okay, they buy back at these prices. You see that this is a rather peculiar indicator because during bottom phases, it also indicates a large outflow because, in fact, long-term holders are considered from 6 months. From memory, I don't have it here perhaps, but from memory, yes, it was 6 months. These long-term holders, naturally, here in November 2022, these are people who bought here. Well, when you bought here during the bear market phase and you sell here, you become a long-term holder. And so, here, we have quite a few people who had bought during that phase who sold. So, it's a bit difficult to discern buying and selling phases from this indicator. And you see here, I'm talking about it anyway because here we're talking about negative territory. You see, we're in the negative. You see that on this cycle, the bottoms were rather established when long-term holders were in buying phases. I'll take my curve again. And here, that's not really the case. So, this is, well, naturally, not all indicators point in the same direction, all the time, at the same moment. It would be too simple. You see here, well, this indicator, which traditionally tends to turn green when we are in bottom phases, well, that's not the case here. So, we might have to look lower, perhaps look for a stronger interest zone, perhaps have a low consolidation, meaning, here, maintain these levels between $100,000 and $105,000 for a few days, a few weeks, even just two weeks, to really reach moments of panic where we will have people who can reaccumulate, as we might have had at that moment or at that moment. This is what this indicator tells us. It means, given all the others we've seen, you must keep in mind that there's no need to panic, particularly. Especially since if we look here at the long and short term cost basis, so this is the cost basis of short-term, long-term holders, and so on. This allows you to see at what point you have top phases and bottom phases. It's a good indicator for placing bottoms because, in essence, when you are below the price realized by long-term holders, well, everyone is underwater, and it's generally at that moment that bottoms are established. You see that this is the case right here. Here, if we look a little at the curve, you see that we are following this red curve, which is the price realized by short-term, very short-term holders, one could say. But you see that as long as we stay at these levels, we are not in a real stress phase. You see that, for example, in the 2017 cycle, well, that was the case. We worked this zone for a good while. Hop, we'll look here. You see that we came back to this curve quite a few times, and it was really when we broke it that we entered the bear market in the previous cycle. Well, we worked it again. Here, we broke it, we had a longer consolidation, and then we broke it, and that was a bit the beginning of our bear market. So, here, if we look, we have broken this curve several times. We broke it here, here, and here. But you see that each time it led to long consolidations. So, this was the case. We broke it in June 2024, and it took 4 months to break it upwards again. Here, we broke it in February 2025. It took until April 2024. So, it took 2 months to break it upwards. That is to say, if we stay too long below these levels, which are currently around $113,000, it could mean that we will have to consolidate for a long time. And if we really start to establish a downward trend below this curve, then in that case, we will certainly need to be vigilant and probably take profits for a bear market that could set in. But here, I still have an indicator that makes me tick, and that's this one. This one, this indicator, is the accumulation indicator. This accumulation indicator, you see that right here, it indicates an accumulation of 0.96. So we are here. We are almost at 1, we are almost at pure accumulation with many, many purchases and large purchases. This is what this indicator sees, and generally, it's not the case during profit-taking phases. We are not in downward phases, we don't have this kind of behavior. You see that here, when we had large zones where we were looking for accumulations of around 21, simply, meaning very large accumulation, well, here, when we had phases of decreases and so on, well, we actually lowered this score. Okay? So, we'll look at the different tops. But here, you see, we were at 1, we went down to 0.87, 1, 1. Here we were at 1, we were still in accumulation, but as soon as we really started to settle below these top prices, 0.42, 0.12, and so on, then we went down, we went into a distribution phase. Okay? Right here. If we look here, well, similarly, you see, we reached our top, and then we went down to 0.66, 0.50, 0.9, and so on. Here, we had, well, you see the color change anyway, but you see that we went from a top phase where right here, we were in accumulation, to a distribution phase, and then we plunged downwards. You see that this was somewhat the case here. We had accumulation, then here it became clearer. We had a small distribution zone, then accumulation again, a small distribution zone, and here, since our previous top at 121, we were at 0.58 in terms of accumulation, 0.64, 0.79, 0.89, 0.96, today's update. So, this means that at this moment, many people are buying. And it's quite surprising because if we were in a bear market phase, this is not something that is supposed to happen. Okay? Now, it has happened in the past. Okay. Here, but we had, you see, at the moment we reached these zones again, well, I told you, the zones right here. So, where were we? We were here. You see when we reached right here, the zones that had been strongly bought by long-term holders, did they reinforce their support or did they sell it? Well, we'll look at that via this indicator. Here, we had large buying zones. Well, you see that here, there was a lot of buying, but it has reduced, in fact. You see here, we were at 0.93, for example. Here, I'll take here, 87, then 87, then 73, then 72, and so on. And here, when we reached again these levels that had been strongly bought right here, well, you see that it has reduced. We went from 1, and here there was a distribution zone on the rebound. There was distribution. So, here, if we consolidate for a while right here, and I see this indicator showing a distribution phase, well, obviously, it will mean, well, the market is not ready to go up again, and therefore, in such cases, it's probably better to get out of the market and accept the distribution and take advantage of this distribution phase by the big players to also exit and come back when they are in an accumulation phase. But that hasn't been the case. So, here, this makes me tick. I tell myself, no, in fact, here, everything is once again in favor of, well, it will continue to rise. You see the distribution here, where everyone tells me, "Yes, we could be in a situation similar to this one." Well, I have a little trouble believing you because here we were in a large distribution zone. Beyond the chart configuration, you see that we were in enormous distribution zones. You see BTC accumulation trend score zero. So, this was really pure distribution. Okay. Here, we had a large accumulation zone, I agree with you. So, this was also linked to retail investors who bought heavily. But here, it was quite tricky. If there hadn't been the war in Ukraine, the return of inflation, and so on, well, potentially, we could have gone up again. That's why I'm telling you, there's a set of clues that allows you to say that. You can't take just one of the indicators I'm talking about and base all your strategies on it. At that time, I remind you that in November 2021, when we looked at the reverse repo, we were here. So, there was really a macroeconomic fear that was setting in. It wasn't a technical move; it was really macroeconomics telling us, "Be careful, you need to get out." Here, macroeconomics is telling us, "Go all out." And the technicals are telling us, "Go all out." Well, the fundamentals are telling us, "Go all out." Now, the technicals themselves are telling us, "Well, here, you see, we've broken the support." So, since the beginning of this video, we've broken the support I was talking about. We probably should have gone lower. Well, here, you see, we are working on it again. We'll update it quickly live. Well, so when I publish this video, it will be a bit too late, but there you go, you'll need to monitor that. You can put yourself here, well, this is free, it's when Glassnode does this. You go to liquidation, liquidation heatmap, model 2, and you can look. Well, here, you'll need to see what's happening at that moment. If we stay here, you see that there's no yellow line being created below the price, that's fine with me. If I even have a yellow line created above the price, I'll tell myself, that's it, we're ripe. We're ripe to establish the bottom. But that's not the case yet. So, you need to be vigilant. Well, obviously, when I play movements of the order of 500% on altcoins, you can imagine that movements of 3 to 5% have importance, but an importance that is, therefore, relative. Okay. So, here too, I'll give you another indicator, that of the relative activity of small and large entities, the big and small entities in this market. What are they doing? When you have small entities, in blue, moving, it generally means that these are rather euphoric phases. Okay, we had it right here during the top. We had it also during the bottom phase because it was a capitulation phase. But here, you see that we have nothing. This is where I'm getting at. Here, we have nothing. For a long time now, since September, since early September, nothing is happening with either large or small entities. Large entities are positioning themselves, so large entities, I'll speak in French, they are positioning themselves here. They had also positioned themselves heavily here in anticipation of upward movement. These are generally whales. Large entities are banks, large financial institutions. At the time, it was also large companies that had started to position themselves. We had MicroStrategy and so on. At that time, when large entities are buying heavily, well, we see it here, and it's generally a good sign. Okay, it's not always the case, but it's generally a good sign. Or at least, things are happening, there's activity, it could be distribution, it could be accumulation, it could be many things, but things are happening. This was the case here, precisely here, it was the case at the time of the Terra Luna crash. It was the case at the time of the FTX bankruptcy. You see that it was the case here during the halving phase, it was the case here during the Trump election and tariffs phase. But you see that it's very calm here. Okay? If we were in a distribution phase, it would be much less calm than this. Okay? We should have activity. Here, regarding ETFs, well, we've already talked about it a bit. You see, we have another summary of the curve. Certainly, it's slowing down, certainly, it could mean things in the future, but I'm waiting for BlackRock's portfolio. I'm waiting for an update of BlackRock's portfolio. If I have large outflows, I will act accordingly. We'll continue. I don't have many indicators left to show you, but I have the cost basis distribution heatmap here. I often show it because, for me, it's a great indicator that allows identifying key levels. And here, if we look, right here, when we were around $111,200, we had, you see, supply 116,103. This means that 116,103 Bitcoins were bought at these levels. If you take out your little calculator, 100,000 x 100,000, okay? we are around 10 billion dollars that were bought at these levels. So, here, 10 billion bought at $111,000, well, it's probably not for nothing. Okay? So, here, we have large buying zones. We saw this here, we had large buying zones. Here too, it was confirmed here. Okay. When we came to recover these levels. And if we had distribution zones here, we should have what we might have had, for example, here. You see here, we had small distribution zones. Above the price, you saw selling zones. Here too, above the price, you had selling zones. That hasn't been the case. Okay? So, obviously, there were small support levels here that we had identified at $117,500 that were supposed to hold us. They didn't hold us. We broke them here too, here too. We are working on them again, we are even breaking them for some. But you see what we might have had there, I see many people talking about this too. What we might have had here, you see this enormous distribution zone with price lateralization here, building of short positions, and a break of this price downwards, with people taking profits, this curve going from red to orange and yellow. So, here, this means that on this decrease, many people took profits, but we don't have that. So, we don't have that. If we had that at that moment, we should find red and orange lines above the price here. And that's not the case. So, here, we are more in zones of fear, technical zones where we are recovering liquidity because the market is illiquid. So, market makers are taking advantage of it, quite simply. It's not very complicated to move the market. There's little open interest, few open positions, and so on. And you have enormous fear movements. So, it's quite easy to manipulate and make prices fall, it's as simple as that. So, this is technical. If we look here, well, I'll share two other indicators, and then we'll take a brief look at order flow to finish here. Regarding this indicator on shark addresses, these are portfolios that hold between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoins. They have been driving the market recently, since this cycle. In reality, you see here the orange curve, it's the number of addresses that hold between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoins. They were around 14,000 at the time, in the summer of 2024, a little more, we went from 14,000 to 17,000. We have 3,000 portfolios that have reached this stage of 100,000 Bitcoins. And you see that here, well, it's the same, it's quite symptomatic. Here, we always have an increase in this supply. Okay, we always have an increase. You have here the count of addresses and you have here Shark addresses. So, the position change of these sharks, and here you see that we are still in a buying phase. We are still in a buying phase, which was not the case typically in this large zone. You see, when we were in a bear market at that time, that's it, the sharks were leaving the ship. Okay? It's fitting to say. You see here, we had all the sharks leaving Bitcoin and selling en masse. Well, here, you see that was the case. We had large buying zones, and we are still in buying zones. So, this is rather positive for me. We are more in a behavior similar, once again, to 2017, I'm showing you right here, where we had large buying phases. Certainly, we had corrections, but where we had large buying phases, and we haven't yet had this zone where there's distribution by sharks. Okay? Where sharks move into a distribution phase and where we have a real massive sale. That hasn't been the case. And and and here, for the moment, you see that we are still in this phase, let's say, pre-mania phase, which somewhat reinforces my initial theory. After all, I'm probably biased, that's for sure. Given that I have an initial theory, I probably see signals that indicate we are heading in that direction. I try not to be. You see that I do take indicators that don't always go in my favor, but overall, I think that here, after all the indicators we've shared, this one, well, it's just the number of transfers to exchanges. Generally, when we reach top or bottom phases, we have transfers. It's essentially to say exactly like this indicator, this indicator here, well, you see that nothing is happening. So, it's not a major activity level for the moment, at least. We'll see the resolution a bit later of these levels, but for the moment, that's not the case yet. If I quickly share an indicator here that leans towards a probable bottom in the coming days and hours, well, you see it's this indicator. You see it just below. It's the top trader long and short account. So, you have the accounts of top traders who are rather long or rather short. Since this cycle, when we reach this zone, this purple rectangle, when we reach right here, you see that these are bottom phases. Let's trace them together. At that time, we were there. Hop. At that time, we were there too, right here. We were there right here. We were there right here. I'll trace a few, and then, well, I imagine you'll have understood the mechanism. Right here, let's say, right here, when we were in purple. Well, we had small rebounds. I can note them too if you want. Hop, hop, hop, and hop. So, we'll look next at the price. But you see that this curve here, it was the local bottom. Local bottom, we take again, local bottom. Local bottom, local bottom. Here too, here too, here too. Here too, here too. Okay? Here, we could say it was a bit later, but here, if we look at the top, it's just that I traced it incorrectly. Each time, it was like that. Okay? So, here, to see this curve shoot up and reach a level higher than what it reached right here, makes me think, once again, I have the top traders on my side. Now, it doesn't necessarily always mean much, but I always prefer to have them on my side than on the opposite side. I always prefer to be on the side of those who make money than those who lose it. So, this was the case here. Precisely, this was the case here. Anyway, after that, you've understood the song, I won't do them all. So, it's already been an hour. So, I hope this update has reassured you a bit. We have technical indicators, I repeat, truly technical, that tell us that we might have a decrease. As long as we have lines being created, liquidation lines being created directly below the price in the next 12 to 24 hours, it's highly probable that people will get liquidated. You see that's not the case yet. Well, here, you see that we have rather green colors here above the price. I like that. We'll see a bit how it evolves, but it could mean we'll nibble away at all that. For now, that's not the case yet. So, you need to watch, you need to be vigilant, but be confident with your strategy. Define your indicators, your strategy. If you follow me, obviously, in Medusa's circle here, if I share this video with you, it's precisely to do this work for you. I have many indicators that you don't necessarily have, I have time that you don't necessarily have. Obviously, it took me a whole morning to give you a complete analysis like this, to dig into many indicators that I haven't shown you because they weren't always relevant. I have several hundred. But, but there you go, you have to try to form an opinion on the market and try to keep your theses while trying to temper our emotions a bit. The stoic side in investing is extremely important. It's what will make the difference. So, I hope you like this video, that it has pleased you, and above all, that it has enlightened you. I hope it has helped you a bit to better position yourself. We'll meet again soon. Anyway, you'll have all the news on these indicators that I've shared. I will obviously share everything in the circle. We'll look at it together, and I'll keep you updated. So, so there you go, if something changes, if I change my positions or anything, of course, I'll tell you, and you'll be the first to know. There you go. And well, we'll meet again soon, and I hope you have a very good weekend.