Transcription
Most people will lose their fantasy leagues because they make too many mistakes. You don't have to be perfect when it comes to drafting a fantasy football team. You just have to make less mistakes than your opponents. So, in this video, we're going to be breaking down the worst pick in every single round of your fantasy draft so you can make less mistakes and actually win your league. And we're going to start with round one.
And now, this is like, you know, it's round one. All the players are pretty good. So, we're not actually going to say that anybody for the most part in round one is a bust. At least not this year. But for the purposes of this video, in round one, if there was a player that I was avoiding compared to the rest of these elite talents, it would actually be Jackson Smith and Jigma. Now, that might seem absolutely crazy to you. If that's the case, that's fine. Like I said, round one, there's really no bad picks. We just have to pick somebody here. But let me break this down. JSN offensive player of the year last year, almost 1,800 receiving yards. It was a top 10 season of all time in terms of NFL receiving yards. He led the NFL in that regard. He was one of the most efficient players in football. And this was all despite the fact that the Seahawks last year only threw 481 times. That was the fourth fewest pass attempts in the entire NFL. So JSN was going out there not on high volume. Sure, he saw a lot of target share in his offense. He was declared number one receiver, but he wasn't getting a lot of volume. Instead, he just did it based on efficiency. 3.72 yards per out run, second best last year, one of the best rates we've ever seen because Puka was also historically great last year from a yards per run standpoint. So all of this is very good. It starts to bring into the fact of like, okay, why are you not in on JSN this year? Let me once again say I don't have any problems with JSN. He's a top five pick in most drafts. That's completely fine. But if we're grading him against all the other first round picks, I think he's the worst value because he now has a little bit more volatility. His offensive coordinator, who won a Super Bowl last year, uh, coordinated one of the best offenses we've seen over the last five years, including Kubak, is now gone. He's the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. That's going to add a little volatility. We also know that the offensive structure is going to change a decent amount. If we pull up Seattle's team changes cha page from this off seasonason, Kenneth Walker, Super Bowl MVP, he ended up leaving in free agency. Zack Sharon, another running back on this team. Their run game, depending on the metrics you look at, were either the best or a top three run game in all of football. But now Kenneth Walker's gone, your offensive coordinator's gone. Zack Sharet might not play football until week 12 at the earliest. The entire offense is going to have to change. Now, if it leans more on Sam Darnold, what does that mean? Do more mistakes happen? So, if you're forcing me to pick a player in round one that I consider is the quote unquote worst if we had to pick one, I would say it's JSN considering he's a top five pick who's going to have a totally different offensive coordinator and offensive philosophy this year. That just leads to some variance, which could be good things, but also it could be bad things.
Now, let's get into round two here. For round two, the player that I want to target here in terms of the worst pick in round two, this is going to get a lot of people mad because he's probably the best quarterback in football right now, and that is going to be Josh Allen at the end of round two. Look, in previous seasons, I was all aboard taking Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson at the end of round two, early round three, but I just don't think it makes sense this year. And you can get into the comments and say, "Josh Allen is great." I know Josh Allen is great. Yet again, last year, played all 17 games. He basically plays every game every year despite being a mobile quarterback because he's just so much bigger than a lot of linebackers out there. Once again, runs for 500 plus yards, a dozen plus touchdowns. The guy's great. He led the NFL last year in fantasy points per game amongst quarterbacks. That's his third straight year finishing top two at the position. He's automatic. If you take him at the end of round two, he's not going to just blow up your fantasy teams. He's probably going to stay healthy. He's probably going to finish as a top three quarterback and that's completely fine. But is that the best value specifically for 2026 because this is the year of the fifth and sixth round quarterbacks. Look at this. Josh Allen goes right now top 24 like we were just showing you right here. He's going 24th overall. If we start to look at some other positions, Lamar Jackson is going 57th overall in some drafts. And then you start to get to this range which I really like. Jayden Daniels 66th overall. He's a sixth round pick. Drake May 68th overall. Depending on the format you play in, he'll go in like the top 60 or so. Either way, or fifth or a sixth round pick. And right now Jaylen Herz is a late sixth round pick. Same for Caleb Williams. We've seen the flashes of a Jaylen Herz, a Drake May, a Jaden Daniels. You cannot deny that their ceilings are very similar to Josh Allen. We're talking about 25 to 35 point fantasy weeks, 20 plus fantasy points per game, right? So, if I could just get those guys three to four rounds later, I'd rather do that and get a Nico Collins or AJ Brown or Derrick Henry at the end of round two. So, it has nothing to do with Josh Allen in terms of why he's the worst second round pick. His situation is basically going to be the same. They're going to run the ball a bunch and he's going to be an MVP candidate still at just 30 years old in his prime. It's just everything to do with what you can get later on.
Now, if we go into round three, the worst pick is going to be kind of a straightforward one. A lot of you, I assume, are going to make a lot of sense out of this. It's going to be 33rd overall, the wide receiver, third-year player from the New York Giants, Malik Neighbors. Now, obviously, Malik Neighbors last year after four games, he tears his ACL in week four. Uh, he does not return. And as of like right now, this recording, so we're pretty, you know, getting deeper into the summer, closer to fantasy football. He has not yet practiced. New coach John Harour of the Giants said Malik Neighbors told him he expects to be in New Jersey for most of the next seven weeks with the Giants to rehab his knee. Says that he's doing great, but there's no timeline on when he'll get back onto the field. That's not great. Uh in terms of like what's happening with this knee cleanup that he had. Uh Brandon PT on Twitter, you can check him out at FantasyFoot PT. He ends up just breaking down. It's a pretty good thread. We won't go all into it, but he basically says that it's crucial that he had not just an ACL, but he also had meniscus repair. It's not a standard isolated ACL. Meniscus is going to take a little bit more time to heal. It's usually going to delay your recovery process and your return to action for a high uh you know, an explosive uh very important player in terms of football, an athlete. It's going to delay that by maybe one to two months. Michael Parsons is dealing with the same thing for Green Bay. These players, Neighbors and Parsons, are probably going to end up on the PUP list and miss a month plus of the season. So although we saw him do great in his rookie year, 170 targets, albeit a different offensive coordinator and quarterback situation, it's not the same. He did that in just 15 games, we know the upside of a Malik Neighbors. The problem is he's just not healthy. Like I have this rule. I don't want to be drafting already injured fantasy players. I'm completely fine if a player had surgery last year and they're going to be ready by August and training camp and they're good to go. But if you're telling me that a player like a Malik Neighbors right now is trending to probably miss the beginning of the season and that's best case scenario, what if there's a setback? What if he delays? What if he takes a little bit longer? What if there's some mental battles and it takes him a little more like Bucky Irving last year? I'm just going to avoid this entire situation. In my opinion, he's the worst pick right now in round three.
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All right, now we get to round four and I want to talk about a running back and we're gonna go to the Cleveland Browns, Quinn Sean Junkkins, the 46th overall player right now. He's a late fourth round pick. What do you need to know about Kungchan Junkkins? Well, in his rookie year, it looked like he might actually be in jail and never play football, right? We didn't know what was going on there. He ends up playing and all things considered, puts up 1,000 total yards or so. 827 rushing, 171 receiving, thousand total yards, seven touchdowns. Not terrible considering the offense that he was in, but based on how he started the season off, he ended up dropping off a cliff. And we said he cannot keep this touchdown production up. He's a sell high. We said that last year. Ended up panning out. First six games of his season, weeks two through week seven, 15.3 fantasy points per game, uh 18 rush attempts per game, 77 rushing yards per game. The other eight games, so this is week one, and then the rest of the season from week eight on, just 9.7 fantasy points per game, 45 rushing yards per game. The terrible offense, the fact that he does not catch passes and the other rookie last year, Dylan Samson, is a much better pass catching back. That held that that help held back the consistent upside of a Quinton Jun. If he wasn't scoring a touchdown or two, he basically wasn't getting you there in fantasy football. The problem is now like I don't think any of that's going to change. We're still looking at a Cleveland Browns team that is currently the number one favorite to have the number one overall pick next year because their quarterback situation. Deshaawn Watson's currently the favorite to start and oh if he struggles which he probably will at this point. Shador Sanders is there. Dylan Gabriel is there. It's not great. You still have Juncan a player who's coming off of his own injury although he'll be ready for week one but there's something to that. He's coming off of a pretty serious injury. He's going to go out there as still not a passcatching running back. Dylan Hampton is going to be that passcatching running back. So like I just don't see the upside for this offense overall. I'm not really sure. I see a lot of upside in it. If anything, maybe the upside comes from the fact that, okay, the passing attack should be a little bit better. Does that get them to the red zone a little bit more? And Quinn Chan Juncan scores some touchdowns, but that basically has to happen if he's going to be a fourth round pick. These are the team changes tracker in the fantasy blueprint right now. You can check it out at joinbloopprint.com. Limited spots available. It's a proven system to help you win more in your fantasy leagues and actually get to the postseason, beat your friends, all that. But you can see in the NFL draft, round one, they take a first round wide receiver, Casey Conception. Round two, they take a second round wide receiver who could have easily been a first round talent in Denzel Boston. So maybe like the optimistic view here for Quint Junkkins. The pass catchers uh just they end up showing out as rookies right away. Jerry Judy continues to produce. Deshun Watson turns back the clock a little bit despite multiple Achilles tears, right, and reinjuries. Uh and this offense actually moves the ball. But even if that happens, you're basically already paying for it at a fourth round price tag. At a fourth round price tag, you're going to need a 1,200 yard uh 8 to 10 touchdown season out of Quinton Junkkins for that to really be worth it for you since we know he doesn't catch passes. For me, there's not enough upside here. The juice isn't worth the squeeze in terms of round five.
Now, let's go back to the quarterback position. Joe Burrow goes as the 48th overall player. Sometimes a fourth round pick, sometimes an early fifth round pick. For the purposes of this, we'll view him as a fifth round pick. Now, last year, the guy was fantastic. Whenever he's been healthy in the NFL, he's basically been fantastic, right? Uh six games last year to end the season when he's healthy from week 13 to 18. 22.5 fantasy points per game, two and a half touchdowns per game. He's a top three quarterback in fantasy during that time, averaging 270 yards per game. So, all this is fantastic. But even when he's doing this, even when he's standing out and averaging three touchdowns a game and 40 pass attempts a game and going out there and balling out as a passer, he still has a capped upside because he's only carrying the ball last year 1.7 times per game. And some of those are kneel downs. If you just look at this, he had zero rushing touchdowns last year. He's going to get you like maybe if you're lucky, six to eight rushing yards per game. When you don't have any mobility at the quarterback position in today's NFL, it's not worth it. Especially when you're a fourth or a fifth round pick. Consider the players who currently go after him in fantasy drafts. Jaden Daniels, here's Burrow, right? After him in fantasy drafts on average, average draft position, ADP. Jaden Daniels, mobile upside through the roof and a good passer. Drake May, mobile upside through the roof and a good passer. Same thing for Caleb Williams and Jaylen Herz. These guys are going a few picks to even a round after a Joe Burrow. I'll just wait until round six or maybe a Herz falls into early round seven and take those guys instead. There is so much more weekly floor and upside when you're a mobile quarterback. Joe Burrow's floor is a little bit shaky since he doesn't have mobility. And there's also the piece of this that he's missed significant time, seven or more games in two of his last three seasons. We know he's missed time previous years before that. That's kind of why his mobility dropped a little bit. He was running too much towards ACL, right? So, all of this kind of plays into it. I think just just like last year, we were not in on Joe Burrow as like this fourth or fifth round pick. The same thing holds this year. Yes, he still has the great weapons, no mobility, injury concerns, better options later on.
Now we go to round six and we're going to go back now or actually we're going to go for the first time to the tight end position. Harold Fannon at the end of round six. I mean this guy last year is a rookie tight end who nobody really thought anything of. Absolutely dominated. One of the best tight end seasons we've seen uh maybe ever for a rookie. He gets 107 targets. Top five at the position. He ends up going out there for a 21.6% target share. Led his team in target share as a rookie tight end. Top five in the NFL last year amongst all tight ends. One of the only tight ends to ever do that. Lead the position. Get you 11.7 fantasy points per game. Seventh amongst tight ends. Six touchdowns. And this is all considering the fact that he had one of the worst one of the worst passing attacks in football last year. The Browns ranked 31st in yards per game and dead last in points per game. Their offense was not good. And again, like we said earlier with Quinn Sean Junkkins, still a bad quarterback situation, still not the greatest offensive talent in general. Young players that might take some time to get going. I don't know how you could really like Harold Fannon, especially if we pull up the team changes tracker in the fantasy blueprint. Check it out at joinb blueprint.com. We told you ear earlier Casey Conception Denzel Boston ear these rookies were there uh drafted in the first and second round of this year's NFL draft. Jerry Judy some people thought he might get traded or cut. As of right now that's not the case. So for Harold Fannon's target share Judy's still there. Sure David Andoku's gone but he's replaced with legit talent in Casey Conception in the short to intermediate parts of the field. Denzel Boston a field stretch on the outside. In my opinion this year you're going to have to see a reduction in that 21 to 22% target share for Harold Fannon. There's a decent chance this drops to a 17 or an 18% and that's significant especially when you still have a poor offense and poor quarterbacks where efficiency is probably not going to be there. Harold Fannon to me is a fade in round six.
Now we're going to go to round seven here and my fade or worst pick in round seven is another player kind of like a Malik Neighbors who's currently dealing with an injury and some other things that I don't love. It's going to be Alec Pierce at the end of round seven, the 84th overall player. Let's break it down. So Alec Pierce had his big breakout season last year. He went over a thousand receiving yards just barely with a 103. Somehow he does this despite only averaging three catches per game. Nuts, right? The guy goes for 1,000 yards, three catches per game, only 47 total catches on the season. How is he doing this? Well, he was just an insane downfield threat. Led the NFL in percentage of his team's air yards, 52%. Uh he was third in total air yards. You keep scrolling. His average depth of target, the average time he was targeted 19 yards downfield, right? So, this isn't like your slot wide receiver getting targeted 8 to 10 yards downfield. Almost 20 yards downfield. An explosive play in the NFL is 20 yards. On average, Alec Pierce's targets were basically an explosive play. Insane. But there's concerns to that profile because now you have Daniel Jones coming off of a torn Achilles, which historically has been proven to kind of limit the downfield power of a quarterback. That's going to that's going to have to hurt in my opinion. Daniel Jones, who last year threw it downfield 37 times, and this is also skewed because he missed weeks 14 on, but 2.8 deep attempts per game would have been around top seven in the NFL last year. So now you're missing out on that at as Alec Pierce. Your quarterback literally probably doesn't have the power to efficiently and effectively consistently well look at all those words and in why throw downfield. And Alec Pierce himself after signing his massive contract this off seasonason, he's going to be out well into training camp, four to six month surgery. He might not even be ready for week one right now after trying to do PRP shots in January. It ended up not working. He then had to go and have ankle surgery in March and that's going to be a four to six week recovery. Maybe he's ready for week one. That's not a great sign for a seventh round pick that you might have him ready for week one if everything goes well and his quarterback's coming off a torn Achilles. He also does have target competition. It's not like there's not anybody here despite Michael Pitman being gone. You still have Josh DS who's going to take a step up in the offense this year and Tyler Warren entering year two who was top three in targets amongst tight ends last year. So seventh round Alec Pierce is the worst pick I'm currently fading.
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We are now on to round eight. And the player that I've loved in past years, like two years ago, love this guy. Uh I traded for him everywhere that I could with Bon Knicks. It's going to be Courtland Sutton. Beginning of round eight. He's just somebody that I can't trust this year. Let's get into it. First off, he goes over 1,000 yards once again last year despite a somewhat slow and down season for him. 74 receptions. All of this is great to see, right? The problem for Courtland Sutton, though, is one, he's 30 years old, and two, he's now competing with a younger, in my opinion, much better wide receiver that's coming in in Jaylen Waddle from the Miami Dolphins. Now, Jaylen Waddle, you know, last year wasn't the greatest. Injuries, quarterback situations all messed up. You start to go back and you're like, "Yeah, but Jaylen Waddle, even in 2024, S, he didn't do anything. 15 games played, 744 yards. That's atrocious." Sure, this was a weird season. I would say overall he also dealt with injuries this time. His quarterback also seized up on the field fencing multiple times that season. Not great, right? But now he's actually going to get some good quarterback play. I would say Bo Knicks for the most part has been good. And the last time we saw good quarterback play out of Jaylen Wadd was 2023 when he was competing with a prime peak leading the NFL in receiving Tyreek Hill. And Wadd still was able to go for a thousand plus yards and 72 catches. So this is going to be the toughest competition of Courtland Sutton's career. You also factor in that Bo Knicks is still the quarterback and the way that a Jaylen Waddle plays uh his speed, his elite speed, it gels just so perfect with Bo Knicks who in this offense last year for the Broncos was just chucking the ball downfield. Led the NFL in pass attempts, third in deep ball attempts. That's going to set up really well for the younger, more explosive ability to separate and yards after the catch receiver in my opinion and Jaylen Waddle. But either way here, you're just going to get a situation that doesn't pan out for Courtland Sutton. In past years, he's competing with Devon Vele and Pat Bryant and all these like Troy Franklin, all these like not the most na namestream wide rece mainstream wide receivers with the biggest names because they're not not that great. Now Jaylen Mod's there. That's a concern for Sutton. We also have a new offensive coordinator coming in in Davis Webb who the reason I bring that up is he has no experience with Sutton. He wasn't there the past couple of seasons when Sutton was getting big production in his more prime years like 28 years old or so with a Bow Knicks. So that's even another concern for Courtland Sutton. The offense. If you're Davis Webb, why would you not build it more so around Jaylen Wadd, the better player, the younger player than a Courtland Sight?
All right, now we go to round nine. My round nine fade is going to be none other than Wandell Robinson. I just don't see a world where a ninth round J Wandel Robinson is the reason why you either win your fantasy league or the reason why if you don't get him, you're going to lose your fantasy league. I don't think there's any downside in not drafting Wanda Robinson, which means you probably just shouldn't draft him. I don't think he has all that much upside. He's a ninth round pick. I think at best he's probably finishing as like a sixth or seventh round pick. Is that really worth it? Now, look, I get You look last year for the second straight season he had 140 targets. He took over as the number one clear-cut receiver for the Giants. When Malik Neighbors went down with injury, he was getting 8.8 targets per game. Top 10 target share at 30%. He started to work a little bit more on the outside and downfield, which we did not see in the previous season when he was a slot merchant in 2023. But the problem now is he's on a brand new offense. Sure, I get it. Brian Dable came over from the Giants. He still has his exact same play caller who fed him 120 or 140 targets in back-to-back years. But now you actually have some competition. You're going over to a brand new offense, brand new quarterback situation, right? And you have some target competition. Cardinal Tate, a top five pick in this year's NFL draft. Calvin Ridley, who he dealt with a bunch of injuries last year, but apparently based on all reports in camp and OTAAS, he looks great. These guys are going to be your starting outside receivers. Definitely Cardinal Tate looks like Calvin Ridley rights Robinson is going to get resorted back to the slot. And I'm just going to guess and say that he's not getting 140 targets once again this year, especially as a slot receiver. Even if he earns 100 to 120, they're not downfield as much. You're not going to see as much upside. So yes, Brian Dable is going to be calling the plays there. But I think Brian Dable makes a lot more sense to lean on your top five pick overall in Carnell Tate. Probably going to lean on the run game. That's what he's done at all stops with the Bills, with the Giants, even last year, ranking second in rush attempts. I don't really see a world where Ron Wel Robinson is hurting you as a ninth round pick if you don't draft him. I just don't really see the upside here. I think you're going to get a big year or two out of Cam Ward, a player who likes to throw the ball downfield. And if that's the case, you're probably throwing to the outside parts of the field. Calvin Ridley, whatever he has left. Cardinal take the rookie who I think right now is a massive value in fantasy drafts.
For round 10 we go. And look at this point in drafts like there's nobody that's really a bust, but you still don't want to be wasting your picks. Like we said, you want to reduce the mistakes as much as you can. So here I want to talk about Romeo Dobs because to me Romeo Dobs is a round 10 pick, 127th overall. He's just sometimes he falls into round 11. Uh this is just a guy to me that just says complimentary piece in a Patriots offense. A Patriots offense that we know wants to run the ball. And oh yeah, they also just signed or traded for AJ Brown. Romeo Dobs last year, even with a season with the Green Bay Packers, who didn't have a true number one like the Patriots now have with AJ Brown, he only scored 10 fantasy points per game. In fact, he scored in the last three years of his career 10.3, 10.2, and 10.3 fantasy points per game. He's finished as the wide receiver 40, wide receiver 47, and wide receiver 46. We know what Romeo Dobs is at this point. He's a second at best, most likely third option in most passing attacks, who has sure hands, who could be a red zone weapon, but what's he going to do? He's going to score you 10 fantasy points per game, which there's no upside there. And oh yeah, by the way, last year when Christian Watson was actually healthy down the stretch, Romeo Dobs went from averaging in the first eight games of the season, as you can see on the right side of the screen, according to Rotoiz, 13 fantasy points per game, six and a half targets per game, some really good production to then the final eight games when the actual wide receiver came back and Christian Watson only averaged seven fantasy points per game, only four catches per game, just 35 receiving yards per game. He took a back seat and now he's definitely going to take a backseat this year because, like we said, AJ Brown is now there. AJ Brown is a clear alpha and an offense that's still going to run the ball with quarterback Drake May and still going to run the ball with Ramandre and Trayvon Henderson and going to include their tight ends, especially in the red zone and a Hunter Henry. I see a world where the third option in the passing attack often in this offense is going to be Romeo Dobs, a boundary receiver, uh take a shot downfield, but for the most part, that's not going to get you there. Yes, I get that it's only round 10, but when you look at round 10, why not take a shot on an upside player? Matthew Golden in round 10 is a far better option. Casey Conception in round 10, a far better option across positions. You have Malik Willis at the quarterback position. Far better option for that mobile upside. In my opinion, Romeo Dobs would be a bus and the worst pick in round 10 of Fantasy Draft.
So, there you go. Those are the worst picks in every single round of your fantasy draft. Now, if you want to see how I last year won that $10,000 to First Experts League, there are seven strategies and tips that I use. I made a video about it. It recently just dropped. You can check it out right here. You could use these exact same strategies and tips in your leagues to win more as well. So, check it out right here. and I'll see you all in the next