Transcription
S&P was in a range all day today. You wouldn't think that considering that the one-minute bar on CPI when the inflation report came out was 70 basis points, and then we stayed in that range. But we were far from quiet, that's for sure. DRAM was up over 10% as a sector. Cybersecurity was up over five, but we saw Oracle taking out new lows on the year. This is down to pretty much, I think you're at two, two and a half year lows. You're almost there. And then you have to look at the NASDAQ, which was flat. But then when we really dive into the specifics, we have these breakout names. So you're looking at EWI here, which is up over 5.4%. We're going to discuss why this is, why these certain subsectors are acting the way that they are. This one in particular is pretty fascinating. So let's get to it.
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So, we're going to start with SKHY. And I do think that this is really important for an overview because it talks about this area, and then also we have a testing company that's up after hours about 30 points up, about 25% on earnings. And I think this is super interesting because SKH Highix did come out with options on those levered ETF today. But for me, I'm really surprised that we couldn't come back in gap fill. I actually started out wanting to have a, well, not wanting, started with a short position today. And then from here, watch what it does with the IPO VWAP. And this is why I always tell people to use an IPO VWAP. Using VWAP at very specific spots where people have pain, that's an IPO VWAP. If you put these on charts, it's really crazy how it works, but it works really well and giving you very clear levels. You can see the test, the retest, looks like we're going to break, and then it just reversed again. So, when I'm short, I'm trimming into this, but really I want to see how it acts at the highs. If you look at the highs from there on, it just absolutely ripped. Now, after hours is after hours. I think you're down about eight or $9. Uh, but into the close, it was really very aggressive. So, I'm going to show you this bar and just show you something else that you can do, uh, from a trading perspective. But that's the 350 bar, which is market on close. If I do the simple things and just drop volume on that bar, do you think institutions bought at the end of the day or not? Of course they did.
So, you have all those ETFs, all those levered ETFs that are out there now. And my god, there's so many of them. If we go and just take a look. Let me just find this over here. Um, and you can start just clicking through them between SKDD. Let me just flip to, I don't know what to show you on a daily, but we'll just show you here. Uh, SKDD, which came out, you know, opened at 19.12, closed at what, 12.11, 12. Uh, and there's just, there's just so many of these names. Uh, here's the other side of that. There's the 2X. This is the Ultra SKHU. So, all these have to rebalance at the end of the day. So, they're going to be pretty wild. Retail will do retail stuff end of day. But what you're going to really want to do is overlay this with EWY. And I'm going to tell you exactly why you want to do this. So EWY, and then in the evening at 8:00, we start to see South Korea get very, very active. And they've been very active in our stock market. Uh, it's been a pretty good sign so far.
So, one of the things I pointed out in yesterday's video was just the fact that you have your left, your head, and your right shoulder. People want to argue with me about it. It's not really a debate. It just is what it is. But if you come down here and you look at your neckline, you gap down. Now, the reason you gap down is there's a, a chart, and let me see if I can just grab it real quick. I know it's on here. Here we go. So, if I click on it here, and you should be able to see it right here. So, this is brokerage receivables and margin call and receivables ratio. And what it's showing you here, and this is showing you with South Korea, but what it's showing you here is your exact levels. Now, what's so fascinating about this is the brokerage receivables on what they had that they were managing versus what the margin calls were. And it shows you that 5-day margin call to receivables ratio in blue. And what you'll notice about this is that you can see where the receivables are in that light gray. And then you can see where you are, where you are in blue. Where you don't want to be is where your margin calls to receivable ratio is over the gray line. When that happens, it means that the margin calls, and this is what happened. The Marby gap down, you had something like, I think it was posted, was something like 360 to 400,000 accounts were forcibly sold out and margined. That's a lot. So, we had 400,000 people that were just forced on that gap down to close those positions. And then we can see from there how we are bouncing and how we're holding that area.
So, if you get a failed pattern here, I don't care if you call it a double top and then it's a breakdown. I don't care if you call it a blueberry, whatever makes you happy. I just want you happy. So then if you see right here, you're holding the neckline, however you want to rephrase this neckline. Why I think this is important is because failed patterns, meaning when you don't break on a failed pattern, let me go to this right here so you can see it even clearer. When you hold on a failed pattern, they are the most vicious when you bounce. So watching this area in here, I would watch this super closely. There's a couple things that you can do to see how this is going to go.
So, let me show you this really quickly with a histogram. And you can use this for any chart, but here we are on the daily. I like doing this on a four-hour. And if you look at the four-hour here, you'll always note that if, see how you're sitting right in this level and then all of a sudden you're here. So, in other words, you're getting a divergence. And I like the histogram for this for long-term, like, hey, are we bottoming? And when you see this kind of thing and then you get your first green bar, you might want to pay attention to it because obviously the, the MACD and the way the MACD is setting up is, even though you were lower, you're rolling over. Now, could you get worse again? Of course. Anything could happen. What you would want to do is see, does this go from a salmon color to bright red? And if it does, and I didn't do anything with this, so you can just use the standard ones, but you always look at the bright red and then you go to the, the salmon color, right? Bright red right here. And then you go to the salmon color, and then it's the first four-hour green bar. Bright red and then it's the salmon color, and then that's the green bar. And you just use that low. It's usually a fairly good spot to look at it. I use it for bottoms. It's got a pretty decent probability statistic associated with it. If you want to go back and backtest, it doesn't mean that like, oh, everything's great. I need to just buy, you know, out-of-the-money Tuesday calls. No, that's not what I'm saying. But it's an area of interest. So, if we can hold in here, I think you might start basing, but statistically speaking, you got a lot of damage. But the damage to even retest that damage is like 187 before you got up to that 55. I use a 12, a 22, and a 55. You can't really look at what's going on here and say, "Wow, this looks fantastic." Right? But what you could do if I went here and I just changed this to 100 for a second to give you an understanding on where you're at. It's supposed to move. There it is. So, here's the 100 right at 165. Not now, Larry. You can see that level. And I don't know that we're going to break that. And last time, that's exactly where we came down to. This is when everyone else had to get out last time. I don't know if you guys remember that or not, but this is where everyone said it was over last time. And I just want to highlight this. So, if there's any similarities to that. So, if we went to the top of that and we dropped it like it's hot here, that's a 25% decline from this is over last time. And then if we went here, cuz that was the top, and we just mark off that level, it's going to get you about what, 35 days. So, if we did something here, we just grab the top and we go to the bottom here and then we look at that. Okay, this is that's too much. That's too much magnet. I, I can't deal with that. It's too much. So let's go here and take a look. Okay, so that's 24%. So that's interesting. And then that happened over a period of 21 days. So, kind of, kind of interesting. I wonder where the bottom was of that. Now, now I'm really curious. Still got me to what? 22 bars. And what did this, how many bars did this take? So that took what? 15 bars. Wow. We did it 50% faster this time around. So, last time that was the bottom. And that's very similar setup that we had that we just went through. And we'll just kind of go and do that again real quick so that you can see it. Go back to the four-hour. And then again, here we are. We broke down and then here we are with the red and then it went to the pink salmon color and there's your green bar. Now, this time we even have a divergence and there's your red to your first green bar. But as always, you should do what you're comfortable with.
So, I do think you have some issues here and I do think you have to watch that area. I do think it's interesting how you came near the 100 and how we are here. I also think it's interesting that if we look at the volume of this bar in regards to what I'm talking about, you'll note that this is pretty clean, right, from a volume standpoint versus how the volume is here. But, you know, there I go again thinking. So, is it going to hold? I don't know. I think it's got a good shot of it. I do. I think it's got a decent shot of actually holding in here. So, we'll see how that plays out. You're going to want to see, do they panic tonight and sell to us or do or do they want to get back in their own stock market? And I, I'm leaning towards if they're watching SKH Heinix and watching how this is going, then yeah, they might look at this and go, "Man, we just went home. It was 52. We're coming into it opens at 68, runs to 93, it's at 81." And retail's retail. So, we always know retail is going to panic at, you know, at the end of the day. We can go watch retail panic right now if you want. Um, and again, if we want to just go see what's going on, you can just always look at the volume and go, "Yeah, no, the people here with money are actually buying a lot." And then what do we have here? Yep. We got retail that's sitting there getting ready to eat hot pockets because they got to get out of that before, you know, we see what South Korea does with it and and maybe they puke it. But, you know, there's some really interesting developments that we should cover for you.
First and foremost, AEHR came out with earnings and the earnings absolutely crushed. Like there's, there's it's irrefutable. Uh, you were looking for 80. I'll just give you the highlights. So, we'll start, we'll start here. You were looking to have a loss. You don't have a loss. You made 11 cents and you made 11 cents on the same revenue number. So, there's only one way you can do that, right? There's only one way you're going to really do that. You're either going to, well, two. You're either going to cut cost to the bone where you're pulling the water cooler out of the place, or your gross margins are going to go up. Guess which one this was? Well, they didn't pull the water cooler out of the place. So, gross margins go up and then you're looking at, I think the number was 80 million what they were looking for for like fiscal year. And so, the, the fiscal year now is going to come in between 130 to 150. So, they took that number and they're like, "Oh, by the way, those numbers, yeah, we're going to do anywhere between 60 to 100% more in revenue than we stated." And, um, it's 200% year-over-year guide, but, you know, as everybody's been telling you that the semiconductor rally is clearly over, uh, someone should tell AEHR that that's the case. So, that's the first thing that people are going to have to contend with tomorrow, that these companies that actually do testing are actually exploding to the upside as they test semiconductors. I know it's, it's maddening, right?
So, if we take a look at ASML, um, I think that this is important. I'm going to leave this here. So, 1:00 tonight, they're going to come out with earnings. 9:00 conference call tomorrow. They're in the Netherlands. These are your big levels that you're going to want to watch. So, your put walls right here, call walls there. Doesn't really matter so much what they tend to do. No matter what they do, good numbers, bad numbers, it tends to gravitate down unless it does one of two things. It will gap down if bookings are really, really bad. And if bookings are really bad, they're going to kill memory names. If bookings are good, they're not going to kill memory names, right? I mean, it's pretty simple stuff. So, what we want to understand here is that this is going to move all semiconductors. And then after it comes out, it's the conference call and how they describe demand. Demand should be through the roof. And it's one of the reasons why I actually thought we were seeing names like Micron start to really rally. And as well, I think it's one of the things besides the option market kicking in for these guys. I, I think it's another reason why these guys are moving the way that they are is because when people start seeing these orders, they're going to realize that Heinix, Samsung, Micron are all building out. So, that's going to leave us and take us back into the socks. And I think that if you tie it all together, we'll clean this off. But here's the socks. And one, two, three times. I sound like the count, but we've hit here over and over again.
Before I forget, if you're trying to get into the community, there is a link in description to get on the waitlist. If you're on the waitlist, I believe there's 48 hours left for the last batch that went out. Link is in description and if I remember, I pinned the comment. So in here, you keep hitting that level. You still are unable to get over that 12. So you are wedged in here and it's not like we're watching everything just rally up. The open was the high and we sold down all day. You're seeing key names that are pushing like AMD back into that 550 level, but you're really seeing the big dogs break out here, right? So, if we look at this, we're starting to see over the 55, breaks below it, over the 55. So, you're, you're fighting here and you're fighting pretty hard. So, I think that's a really good sign for the market that you're seeing the leading stock out there. If you look at SMH, for example, which usually has way more Nvidia, it's actually hanging in there at pretty much the same exact way as the socks is hanging in there. So, I, I think that's a really good sign for the market. ASML is going to be our first way to look at this. And then of course we're going to have to go see what Taiwan Semi does. I'll clean all this off. Um, and you're sitting right on the 55. You're actually below it. But you're going into earnings tomorrow and that's tomorrow night. Very similar to how, uh, ASML comes out. And you have some other names there as well that we're going to have to contend with. But not to be undone, IGV actually undercut the 55 today and rallied. So we undercut the 55 and rallied. And I'll show you why I think that this is worth your time to pay attention to. So, well, that's the wrong line. That's not going to help you. Hold on. There it is. Yay. So, if we see how we got over the 55 here. So, we break the 55, everyone gets back in. Break it, everyone's out. Over the 55, bonk, bonk, bonk, and then we undercut. Look at the volume. And today, kind of impressive. And so, we close back over. What got me about this is that Oracle is a huge part of this. And even with Oracle just dying on the vine, which is exactly what it's doing, you actually, you're getting like that's a really bad pattern. Three black crows. But like if after you get set up like this, clean that off. Um, once you get set up like this, it, it's kind of interesting that IGV is still running, but oh wait, there's more. A lot of this is based upon what you're seeing with CIBR and the subsector. So, the subsector is setting up to break out against cybersecurity. Government comes out and says cybersecurity is good. We're going to have some agreements with cybersecurity. We're going to be all about cybersecurity. Seems like a good thing, right? So, that's hitting highs. End of the day on Crowd Strike. Look at this. This was fascinating to me. Um, so here you are right at the end of the day just here. Oh, here's a million like out of nowhere. If you look at the rest of the day, it actually was so strong that when you look at what's going on here, every these bars were like 100,000. Like it was nothing. It actually altered the entire move. If you look at this, I mean, it's literally like 25-minute bars just done in 5 minutes. It's crazy. So, why, why is that important? It's just important to understand that they were pretty much trying to hide all day what they did. So, whenever you see this at the end of the day, that's why it's so important to watch what they do. Market on close, especially now, they've been really sneaky. And you're seeing some of that with PW, but nowhere like you did with Crowd Strike. But when you look at these names after that announcement, they all look really good. This is almost a white marubozu, which is when you close and the open and the close. The open is the low and the high is the close. And they're elongated usually one or at least one times the average ATR. So they're usually fairly good areas to like watch. Like if you watch that one, you can see how that became a base area to take a look at. And then this one similar, but you still have wick city down here. They become really interesting areas. And sometimes they tend to form supports because the buying so much, right? Depends on how strong that area is. And we can see that support area there, which is really what you're looking for. So, I do like what you're seeing there. And it means we're getting another sector here that could start lifting and helping us, FTNT, but we just don't have the love here. This is your wild card, for lack of a better term. And we're seeing this with, uh, the crack spread and these names where they're, they're breaking out. Now, I don't know if we're really trading up that much after hours. This thing's super thin, so it's just like a wick there. But from showing this from a subsector, if I look at the refiners, which is what this is as a subsector of energy, which is actually closed over the 55, you can actually drill into what's actually lifting. And so when we look at this, we can look at like the big three, which would be MPC, which is breaking out and doing really well. The problem with these and VLOO for me, this is my problem with them with VLOO and and these names or PSX is that at the end of the day, one tweet and good news, we have a new another deal and these things just crack like eggs. And I, I've been on the side of that where you've seen them like, oh, don't worry, everything's fine. And then wham, they just get absolutely smoked. So, they're very hard because you have such, I don't know what else to call it these days, but tweet risk. And no, that's not a political statement. If you don't think we have tweet risk, you have tweet risk if you've been in the market for the past 18 months. So, we have that going for us. But that's interesting.
The other part for me was what happened today. So, Goldman just was an absolute monster quarter breaking out of the highs. Huge volume there. JP Morgan trying to play like, oh, things are really bad. This is what he does. He always comes out and says, things are really bad. We have to raise our reserves. And sometimes they believe them. Today, they didn't. They gapped it down and then they just ran. Um, some didn't fare as well. Wells Fargo faded. City had a great quarter and then he got on the conference call and said, "Yep, we're having that great quarter. So, now we're going to expand even more." So, as soon as he started getting into his synergies, he said, "We're going to increase expenses." And it just completely utterly rolled over upon itself. So, not exactly what I wanted considering that was one that I was really interested in, took a position in, but it is what it is. That's the game. Bank America that actually held up really well. And if you look at that, you're breaking out as well. So you have these banks that are leading as well. So if we start getting the XLF behind us and you have the socks behind us and the cues still look like they're, they're holding and we got through CPI which, you know, the biggest question for us with CPI was what was going to happen with the Japanese yen trade and it was a nothing burger. You know, at least for now, you know, we'll see what happens with it, but at least for now it was a nothing burger. So that's, that's a good thing. Nothing. And I'll take boredom. I don't mind boredom. I, I'll take it.
So, what we have to do now, the next thing for us is to really see what happens with EWY tonight and what they do and then we'll come into tomorrow and it's really turning into a 24-hour market lately, isn't it? And I think that's super interesting. But, you know, we just start with the basics. We are above the 55. We are holding in here. The one thing that we were concerned about too that we showed you yesterday was that core 1M, which is the, uh, the SIBO one-month implied correlation. And we're still under here. And so people are always saying, "Well, this, this leads, we have to correct. We have to correct." Okay, I, you know, it's here, too. This is the longest we've ever been under this. So, I get it. I see it. I, I'm wondering how much the ETFs are playing a part in this and how much they might be skewing that. But when we look at this, you know, and financials have good earnings and we're starting to watch some of these semis come out with good earnings. You know, all it takes is ASML to come out and talk about record bookings and then everybody wonders why they're out of semis. So, we're going to get that tonight. And the good thing about ASML is they actually have the decency to do the conference call at 9:00 AM. So, at least everybody on the East Coast is up and ready to go.