Transcription
Hey everybody, welcome back. We have a lot to go over. I'm going to jump right into it.
You had some really interesting earnings after hours with CVNA and and also with FIG, honestly. So, we're going to get to that. I think I'd be remiss to just not point out that we're holding the 675-700 level and we're in a trading range. The cues are actually deteriorating more than it looks like, and we're going to get to that.
I do need to touch base on the Micron and what exactly happened today. Why the reversal and why you're trading up two and a half hours after hours. I think that this is super important for us to understand exactly what's happening here. Let's get to it.
Guys, there's some new things in this video and also I linked it to an unlisted video that's in the Substack. So, drop your comments on this and the format today because you're going to note it's a little different. All right, here we go.
All right, let's start with the basics. This is CVNA Carvana after hours. This This is not good. Let's get to it. Carvana's earnings CVNA. So, let's get to it. Mixed reviews. It's down about 23%. I'm going to blow this up so that you guys can see this. Should have made this a little clearer, but it is what it is. Revenues, they 56, they beat by 8% and the retail units sold. If we zoom in right here, we can see that 163,522 and that is a beat as well. You can sell a lot of cars, but you need to make money selling them. And so you can see right here, this 422 and they're saying it's not comparable. But when they start looking at the IBIDA and the margins, that's where the issue started coming in.
Fullyear revenue right here, 20.35 million cumulative customers they seem to want to push that, but anybody can have customers if you sell the cars for basically nothing. And then EBIDA margins miss, that matters. You were looking at 104, you came in at 91. So if I had to tell you the one thing that's driving it down, anybody can sell a car if you sell it cheap enough. And so this becomes a real issue. And then there's a couple things here about guidance: significant growth, retail sold, IBIDA off full year, including sequential increase units and saying assuming environment remains stable, no specific specific numbers provided. Got to give guidance, guys, especially when you're under this kind of pressure. And I think we should just give a quick shout out to a very small act, small relative to our opportunity, but 5 million cumulative customer transactions. I don't care how many pencils you sell if you're not making money from it. Seems kind of silly to keep pointing that out to the car company, but they should understand that.
Um, I think it was super interesting that Gotham City did nail this and you're down 21% in the past month. Uh, and I just want to point that out. And they are talking about this problem between CVNA and where they're selling the cars to when they go to the market. It's a pretty interesting research report if you have not read it.
Let's get to it. But seriously, for you guys that are trading after hours, follow the golden rules. The VWAP strategy, just actually put a VWAP directly on the first algorithmic bar and then you'll see those areas and you can see how that held it perfectly and then you got matumboed from there. And then I marked off a couple other levels. The other thing you can always do is just drop a volume profile on that and that will give you another area as well that you want to watch. And you can see the value area is up to that 275. So that might hold as well. And then of course, if you have point of control here and then here your value high is. And that's also where that VWAP is. You really need to get through that 288 to 286.88 level. And I wanted to get this out to you as soon as possible. That's why I always tell people to subscribe and click all notifications because we get this stuff out pretty timely.
Now, you note the chart looks a little different from what we were just showing. And that's because it's time-lapsed if you look at the stamp from here from where we just were. I put that note out into Substack. And interestingly enough, I put right on this level that you can just go back and rewind and said, "If you broke out of here, this is where you'd probably see people start squeezing or go long. You flip that VWAP. You can see where the break is." And guess what happened? You pushed.
Now what I'm doing is I'm overlaying a fib. So this actually worked out pretty perfectly because I went to get that out to Substack members. Substack is free. You should make sure that you are getting Substack. The link I believe is in the description uh for the free newsletter. But this level played out perfectly and you can see how it broke out and went from there. I'm not on the call. I'm busy making this right now. Um, but I would watch how you watch it at 316.65 now and then go from there. This was pretty bad, but of course everyone and their sister short it. So sometimes you get fortunate and they squeeze it and present another opportunity for people to get in. If you start closing below that 306, maybe maybe that's another spot to watch, but there's some other names that we need to pay attention to as well.
Now, now this is one that I was short for a little bit and I covered a long time ago and then it went down significantly more. Uh, but you beat by 14% and they're working AI into their product, this Figma. Now, you remember that this was something that was looking to be acquired and then when they couldn't get acquired by Adobe, uh, because the government said, "No, we'll clean all that off." Um, but as always, the easiest thing to do with these when these, you know, super hot ones come out is drop a VWAP and the day that it closes below the VWAP, you just short them wherever that short might be. Sometimes you just can leave them on for a very long period of time. You know, I always give the example of when was the right time to cover Rivian. And if you take a look at this, it's kind of crazy, but that's from the open. This is where it closed on that back here back in the day. That's where it closed November 21. When did you have to close your short? I mean, if you use that, you never even closed above it till here. And then all of a sudden, that was four years later. And it made it there for a day before forming this black cloud cover. And that was pretty much the end of it. Provided a great other opportunity for people to put that short on. Uh, you know, you went from 21 back down to 13. And you can see the weight still on it. Uh, but overall, I thought that was a really good quarter. But anyway, the point that I'm getting at here with FIG is you can tend to do the same exact thing with these. But from that bounce, you have some short here. You have two days to cover still. And you know, they came out and they got it higher. And I don't know. I I don't know that I'd be really feeling too comfortable short a company that raised guidance and beat. Now, they're going to talk about the future and everything's going to be AI and maybe that's going to be the problem. But if they can overlay that and work that into their product line, you know, you went public at 80, 90, you went to 140, you're at 20. At some point, maybe there's something here. You You never know. So, it's just worth paying attention. Uh, where are you busted? You're completely utterly busted. If you start closing under that 24.49, that's the way that it works.
On other names that just really surprised me today, um, out of nowhere, really surprised me was this NYT. I'm going to give you a couple names tonight. Usually we do this is the strength report on Wednesdays. But what we're seeing tonight, there's too much moving on with FIG and Carvana and I wanted to get that out there. But I want to talk about this NT. This is essentially a dragonfly pattern. Dragonflies are opening and closing at the absolute high. And it's that's why I use the word kind of because the opens 75.26, the close is 75.50, and the high was 75.58. So you're all within 30 cents. But really what you want to be perfect is the exact same price and then it's a perfect dragonfly. Rule of thumb, you do not want to play with dragonflies at the top of a chart. They usually push pretty hard because wicks are, as we know and like to say, price rejection.
I can't remember the last time we were able to get into a Warren Buffett new idea flat. And that tells you a lot about this market. Warren Buffett bought 5 million shares. Pretty obvious where he got involved and then he's just been scaling in ever since. But what's so interesting about this is they wick you down. got you even past the previous close. It's been a long time since I've seen this and you reversed at the end of the day and you turned green. So, I'd watch the higher high on that tomorrow. It's definitely on my radar.
In other names, today Micron issued a statement about HBM and a lot of people thought that this is dead because Samsung is going to overtake them. This was a really interesting day for Micron because and I'll just show you the the movement. You obviously had that 393 level where you came in and everyone said, "Oh boy, we're really going to undercut." And you can see the undercut here. And then from there, we just absolutely ripped. You did the dip and rip. And then from there, it was on. And then we realized what the news was. And quite frankly, I didn't know at first because when I'm trading in the morning, I I block out everything and I just focus on price so that I I'm completely objective. I don't want to read the news or anything. I just focus on what the stock's doing because it doesn't matter what the news is. If the stock's doing something in the short term, I need to act to it. U just how I am. You should do what you're comfortable with. And I'm watching this after hours and you have you have a little bit of a bid to it. And do we continue to have that bid? I'm not really sure. In any other market, I'd be all over this in any other market, but I just don't know what, you know, what great thing I'm going to walk into tomorrow. And that has me a little concerned. And and I'm watching that. And the one thing I will say because I think this is important. And there were things I really want to cover. The fact that they did $3 billion and priced this at 540 or 5.45 and it's done the secondary for $3 billion and you couldn't even get there today. I mean, that's extremely telling that you could not even get to where you were on the 11th. I I was really shocked by that. I I'm not gonna lie. I thought for sure we were looking at sub-fives, low fives today for the print, but there was so much demand for that secondary that you couldn't even get to that secondary and they priced it in a day. I It says a lot.
Now, you're still dealing with the same pretty much suck salad out here where you're hitting these highs and then by the end of the day, you're just rolling right over. And you can see how this aligns perfectly with the, you know, the RSIs and then these RSIs start rolling over. But I do think that there's something here that's very telling as we're getting to these highs. We're just rejecting over and over again. Here's Western Digital and you're going to see the same thing. I just want to point out what I'm seeing in the market because this this is going to help you when you're trading your own names and what your own names are. And I'll tell you why. If this pattern exists here, it exists everywhere. And we're seeing it everywhere. And it's not just in these names where you're hitting highs and then you're retreating. And here's one that I bought today. C O H R and then it was up about five six bucks and then by the end of the day it sold down. You look at Western Digital rallies and then you sold down. So you're looking at these closes and going do I really want to hold this overnight? And the answer is maybe maybe I do. And and the question for me that I have to ask myself is do I want that overnight risk? And candidly right now no I don't. But I do think you want to look at what's happening here. And what's happening is they are trying to stabilize these names. you are seeing that if we take a look at the STX super interesting that if we look at this bar I'm going to go through those four that you're still in that range and you can't get over it but when we started seeing the rotation in the capital intensive names what did we see here's a great example of it I'm glad you asked this is from something else we'll get to that but we lifted up hit hit the same level and rejected end of day if we look at those names we want to pay attention to this this is the same exact pattern that happened on GLW and we went through this public pre-market that happen here. It's the same exact pattern and we're seeing that. So then you're seeing these names and I talked about this last night where you're just not having any followthrough and it's not lack of patience. I'm just telling you you're not having followthrough. Here you are, you're at 527 yesterday, 525 on light. Absolutely rips in the face and then from there you have your little dogee. Everyone's happy. But where's your followth through? You're not getting that. And it's really frustrating to see because what it's doing is it's throwing everything off. CGNX absolutely crushed. It's in the right ETFs. What did it do? It's just sitting there with that like warm, wet, you know, disgusting handshake. It's not going anywhere. It's gross. And this is not what you want. It's not what you want to see. We did get some stabilization. I think I think understanding the stabilization and looking at this is more important.
If we look at Google, and I was going through this with someone last night, and here, let me just show you this on the 100. And we're going to drop a 100 in there. And we'll make that white so that you can see it white and you can't miss it. All right. So, you hit the 100 and then you bounced, which is also the 300 level, but you couldn't get any further. And what you're seeing is the same thing that I've been talking about where you're not having any depth of market. And I'll explain this, but you do want to watch Google at that level.
So, we we get this call that PLTR is the cat's pajamas. Everybody needs to be in PLTR. It's going to 195. I got asked a lot of questions in the public pre-market about this today. And what happened? Tries to get over, rejected. Tries to get up, rejected. Hits a level. What do you get? You get a gravestone. An upgrade. And a gravestone is the exact opposite of a dragonfly. You're closing at the low. Dragon flies are that this is just picture a dead dragonfly. There, I said it. Okay, got it. Good. That's a gravestone. So, watch this though when we get into this and we'll see this level. I'm grumpy, don't I? I am. I think a little grumpy. All right, so let's get rid of that. And we're going to drop this down right here. And then we're going to watch these highs and we're going to watch how we hit these highs. Then we're going to just drop in this. And then we're going to see that we peaked over here at roughly a what? That was roughly like a 78. And then we came into this and you're golden. Like you're over like you're ready to rock and roll and push. What's it do? Over complete matumbo. And then you just look at the deterioration all the way into the end of the day. And this is what we're seeing over and over again where they're just doing this and then they're going to rip it on retail in the morning maybe and then they're going to drop it down later in the end of the day. And it's making it very difficult to put on trades. And this is one of the reasons why I I keep saying to people, you have to understand the kind of market that you're in. I see the RSI. I see the upgrades. I see what's going on. But if you don't have the right environment, then you don't have the right environment. If you're in a non-trending market, then you're in a non-trending market. People can say, "Oh, the stock market's doing fantastic all they want." You haven't gone anywhere since October. You're not going anywhere. And this is your put wall at 600. And so, we're watching that.
Now, one of the things that I thought was super interesting, we talked about this in the public pre-market today. This length, see right here where you starts, it starts to break out and then you push and then you break out right here. Watch that bar. So, if we go to this and here, I'll clean all this off because I think that this was super important today. And I know that this is a mismatch tonight, but it is what it is. Uh, I'm trading and doing a bunch of stuff in between it. So, this is what we get. So, here we are. And that's your breakout. Now, why I like VWAPs at very specific points. I like VWAPs for pain points. That's the best way that I can describe it. They are pain points to me. And what I mean by that is this is where somebody was like, "Oh, I'll just buy it when it dips." And then it doesn't dip. Oh, I'll just I'll just sell here. and then they never get that chance again, right? Like those types of pain points I always want to pay attention to because you know what they're going through and you know that's why we talked about when it hit here where also was the 55 it was going to be a problem and now you've got what we refer to as a what VWAP pinch and it's off of that level from the breakout to all-time highs where they missed it and the people that sold here that are dining it out and they flipped and I want to be really clear about that. So we're going to get rid of this for a second. We're going to just understand this. So, we're going to leave this here and show you these people. You They flipped. They went from what? We're going to buy more. We're going to buy more. We're going to buy more. Say it with me. They're going to buy more. They're like, "We don't want anymore. We're done. We're done buying more. We're selling. We're net sellers." So, these people flipped from net buyers during this period of time to what? Net sellers. Okay, cool. Now, you look at the people here that are like, "I'll just buy it when it pulls back again. He'll come out with another piece of cardboard or something." And then boom, right? Over and over again. 1, 2, 3, reverse matumbo here, here, here. That's all I got. Reverse matumbo. I'll come up with something better. You can always drop something in the comments if you have something better than reverse matumbo. Rest in peace, Matumbo.
So, if we see this right here, we can say that we need to hold this level or else these people have given up on chasing the breakout from 2025. The other thing that I pointed out, and I think it's very, very important for us to note is that you have a change, a a complete change in leadership. And I usually don't care when we're trading like this, but here's the 55. Here's the 22. And there's the 12. You should use what you're comfortable with. You are declining here. You are declining here. You are declining here. They are stacked perfectly for a bearish environment. 55, 22, 12. When was the last time that they were stacked like this? And again, I think that this is super really important to get because you have some things here to me that they haven't broken yet. And I'll show you what I mean by that. But you haven't done this since back here in March of 25. Now, just to overlay this real quick, and I usually do the stocks first, but I just want to show you this because I do look at this and it's just a real quick tell. So, if you look at your level right here, okay, thank you for not helping me. If you look at your level right here, okay, and you look at that's where the 12 is. That's the low of the 12 right here. 604. You haven't broken that yet. And you want to watch that. So, I'm watching because it shows you the average, the open, high, low, close. You haven't broken this yet. So, it's not the end of the world, but we really don't want like if you're saying, "Okay, well, give me something to watch." You really don't want the cues to start closing under 605 on the 12 SMA using open, high, low, close. You You really don't want that. And so, we're going to have to watch that. We're going to have to be really cognizant of that. That's not something that you want. And we'll go from there.
Other than that, I would say that tomorrow is going to probably be another eventful day. I would not be surprised to see a push on the microns of the world, on the SanDisks of the world. Uh, the close to me was just a bunch of people really trying to get out. You know, whether or not we build and go higher here, you time's going to tell. It's really tough to to get excited about the market from a from a swing long-term swing perspective when it looks like this. The swing side of the market, I'm doing much better, you know, looking at some of the metal names, like they make a lot more sense. If you start going through XLB and start digging in all the critical mineral names, some of those names are absolutely rocking and we can do those another video.