Transcription
Hello everyone. Today, we will be having an in-depth lecture on Quarterly Theory. So, I will be mentioning things that you guys have learned so far, but I will be introducing different ways in which you can use these concepts.
Right. So, as you guys know, I do not like talking about hindsight data. Right? I don't like talking about things that I couldn't or did not foresee. Right? Or things that moves that we don't talk about before they happen, basically. Right?
So, a majority of what has happened so far, we've spoken about or hinted to. Right? So, for example, this rallying price today during the New York session. So, first, we'll be talking about what happened during the New York session. Right? And I will be explaining why I expected these things to happen. Right? Meanwhile, showing you guys the concepts. Right? That when used together, will give you extreme accuracy.
So, firstly, you guys can see that this is a Precision Swing Point. Right? That was formed after there was sequential SMT. Hold on. The Dow should be right here. There we go. So, after there was sequential SMT right here. Right? This candle right here, which is the candle that opened at 10:05 in the Nasdaq. This candle opened at 10:05, and in the Dow, this candle opened at 10:05. Right?
Since this is an up-closed candle, and so is the one in the Dow, we'll just be focusing on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 for this. Since this is where the cracking correlation happened in regard to the candle closers. Right? So, as you guys can see, this is up-close, this is down-close. Right? And they happened at the same time, but in different asset classes. This is a Precision Swing Point. Right?
And what makes it, you know, even more high probability is whenever you have the Precision Swing Point forming after, right, or causing sequential SMT. And, you know, while reacting to a new day opening gap, which is what this gray level is, or a new week open gap. New week open gaps are better, but usually you find those working on higher time frames. Right here. Right? This candle, you can see it's mostly wick. This is good. Right? This is not an order block that you're seeing right now. Right? But you can see price reacting to this wick.
So, the Precision Swing Point functions as how an order block should function. Right? Whereas this would be a down-closed candle, which is here. You can see price reacting to this Precision Swing Point. Can you see this? I'll highlight it. Right? So, this down-closed candle would be a typical, quote-unquote, ICT order block. Right? But right here. Right? It's a Precision Swing Point. And the only reason why this works here, the only reason why price went down into it and rallied, is not because it's just an order block. Right? Is because we have SMT, which is sequential. There's a new day opening gap here. So, you, the fact that there's a new day opening gap here, the S&P 500. Right? We can use that information here, even though, right, it's not, you know, we don't, it's not visible here. We don't have to see new day opening gaps here if there's one here. And the same thing goes for if there's one here, we don't need to look on these, which you'll, you'll probably find one around this area. Right? For the Nasdaq.
So, also, you can guys can see that after the formation of the Precision Swing Point, right, we had this happen right here. Right? Which is also, you know, very crucial. But, you know, very, it's very intricate details. Right? So, you guys can see that this candle right here is not a sell low. Right? So, this candle drops here, which you could be a buyer here, to be honest. I was, I was literally too busy to come to the computer. Right here. Right? So, you could be a buyer when price drops into the Precision Swing Point. You don't need to wait for a gap to form because wicks are gaps. Right? And which would mean that this wick would be a gap. So, you could see this wick, and even this one, as gaps. Because you guys can see that price opened here and dropped, dipped into the wick and rallied. Right? But here, on this candle, you can see the price dropped, then this one dropped lower. Whereas this one dropped, then this one dropped, failed, failed to take out this low, which formed a, what, what did this form? A swing low. While this one did not form a swing low. So, this right here is another cracking correlation. Did you get that? After the Precision Swing Point is formed, right?
So, this is really, you know, advanced. If you don't know what a new day opening gap is, you need to find out. This is the indicator right here. I used 10 for a new week open gaps. I usually use 15. Right? But you don't need this. The new day opening gap, only thing right that this gives you is, you know, more precision. Right? So, even when price was trading here, right, and I saw price, you know, fall below this low, just and like, probably go right here, and I saw, and there was already SMT, I just wanted to see it dig below this one more, then create a Precision, you know, a Precision Swing Point. That happened. You can buy top of the wick. This candle right here, price drops. Once you see this happen right here, just price just drop into it, you can buy. But, and then if you're here and you see price just dip below here, and this one didn't, that right there is a very high probability entry model. But it's very advanced, and you have to be quick. Right? So, most of you wouldn't catch this small intricate detail. But it doesn't, that doesn't matter. Once it drops into here, right, and, you know, it dropped below the true session open, right, while we have this cracking correlation right here in regard to swing points. Right? So, we dropped below.
So, basically, the, you know, an amazing entry, which is one that you guys would see me do most of the times, is like buying like in anticipation that this will hold as a swing low. I usually do this when there's a Precision Swing Point, there's a new day opening gap, and there's SMT. No, right? That's it right there. And if you go up to the one, right, if you go up to the one-hour time frame, I did this just, right, you can see that there was a, sorry about the mess. Right? I'll just draw this line right here. I'll make it red. And I'll drop it down to the five-minute time frame. You guys can see that there was a one-hour fair value right here. Right? So, there's a one fair gap here. Price dipped into a new day opening gap. There was sequential SMT. Right? So, while this closed right here, you could be a buyer. We're below the true session open. Right? And once price breaks above this, dips back into this wick right here, and rallies, forms a gap, we can buy right here.
So, it's not, it's not that you can't buy above new, you know, session true session opens or true opens. It's not that you can't. Right? It's just that the buying must have been initiated already. So, trend must have been changed. There must be multiple cracks in correlation. Anytime price turns, you're going to see a lot of crack in correlation in regard to price between similar asset classes. Right? All occurring below true opens.
So, right here. Right? We're looking at the 90-minute cycles. And right here, we have this. That, first of all, the SMT was a cracking correlation. Then we had the Precision Swing Point, or second cracking correlation. Then we had right here. Right? A cracking correlation between this, this swing low right here, whereas here, let me show you here. Right? Look at the candles. This made a lower low, while in the S&P 500 here, it did not. So, after this happened, and you see price shift market structure above this high, you, this is where I bought this morning, or where I expected price to go higher. Then, when price was around here, I told you guys that, what did I say? Take profit. Why? There's a new day opening gap here. Amazing.
So, right here, you guys can see this is a breakaway gap. And when do breakaway gaps form? Breakaway gaps form most times, or not, after a fair value gap gets filled to the brim. Right? So, when a fair value gap is completely filled, you usually have explosive price action afterwards. So, the first thing is, right, the first thing is that the algorithm does is, okay, we got to create SMT. Right? Then, okay, we need a Precision Swing Point. We need to rebalance into the Precision Swing Point, the candle that formed it. Right? Then afterward, we create a fair value gap. After the fair value gap, there's a breakaway gap. Right? Which is why you don't want to be buying above equilibrium. So, you're not going to find a setup here. Right? If you take your fibs and where is it? Can't find. Anyways, so, basically, here is equilibrium. Right? Where you see the mouse right now. You want to be buying below equilibrium. Right? So, you're buying below equilibrium. And this is below equilibrium is where you will be looking for these crack in correlations. So, this is like the gold. The cracks. You want to see price crack. Where price crack, price is going to turn. Right? You're not going to see price just drop without cracking. Right? And then afterwards, what happened? Large. Whenever price gets to equilibrium, it's just gone. So, if you're buying, you want to be buying here. Right? Below this level right here. This is where all the entries are. This is where everything happened below here.
And now we'll be looking at the four-hour time frame. Right? So, here we have the S&P 500. Here we have the Nasdaq futures. And here we have the E-mini Dow. So, as you guys remember, right, when price was here, and we were reviewing our, doing our analysis, right, for the current week, which we did Sunday. Right? We wanted, you know, we wanted to see price run above this high, basically, because we already knew that there was SMT, but it was just this candle. Right? So, this didn't happen yet. So, we needed to see price run above this high. Right? This high right here is very important. Right? It doesn't have to do with range or anything like that. It just has to do with this high, which was Friday's high. So, we can expect sequential SMT. Right? Between Friday and Monday's high. If you didn't get this, right, the last time we talked about it, because we just briefly introduced it, right, you need to get it now. Right? So, this is like when, you know, we'll see Monday forming a large range. This is why Monday formed a large range where there's SMT, price will move. Right? Where there's sequential SMT, price will more times than not move. Right?
So, here, first of all, we had SMT on a higher time frame cycle, right, which is the monthly cycle. Afterwards, we have SMT on the daily cycle, which is Friday. So, whenever you see Friday just, you know, close that this so high, it's very easy to get in a trade. You just have to wait until price runs Friday's stops on Monday. Listen, it has to happen on Monday. If it happens on Tuesday, then you do nothing. Right? So, if this doesn't happen on Monday, it's not sequential. Price must run Friday's high on Monday, Monday's high on Tuesday, Tuesday's high on Wednesday. You getting it now? Right? Wednesday's high on Thursday, and Thursday's high on Friday. There are times when Thursday will make the high of the week, and then you want to see Monday run Thursday's high for it to be sequential SMT, or vice versa. Right? So, we had SMT here, then we had SMT again on Monday, which is why we saw Monday being a large range day. But it was still not, you know, as clean, to be honest. I'd rather today than Monday. Right? Even though we didn't have that much movement, but the setup was more clean on the lower time frame. Right? That Monday is just no pullbacks, which is why I said don't trade Monday. It's low probability. And even here, if you look here on the lower time frame, probably the five-minute time, you'll see sequential SMT again.
So, as you guys can see, first, there's always signs to price turning around. First, you'll see the higher time frame cycles creating sequential SMT, and then the lower time frame cycles will follow. Wherever there's not sequential SMT, that's just liquidity. So, if, so, if there's no sequential SMT, all you're looking at is liquidity. Right? So, before price ran below this low, there was no sequential SMT, but there was here. That was liquidity. Right? Where, right, whenever you see price, right, creating SMT by trading way below a previous low, whereas you would have Nasdaq trading probably here, and the S&P 500 probably trading here, and there is no, and there is no gap. Right? There's just a low. You would expect price to react to the rejection block, which would be the body of the lowest close before the low of the wick. And the same thing for here. Also, here we had SMT. Right? SMT again. So, we had sequential SMT here, and sequential SMT here again. This is the typical price action that you would usually expect in the first week, which is why the first week isn't the best week. It's not that it's really low probability that you can trade. You can manage to trade on the lower time frames. Right? But this is basic NFP week. Right? And this explains to you, right, why now we have low probability price action. Right? If there was no sequential SMT here, then we could expect price just drop. If there was none here, we could just expect price to just rally. Right?
Also, look here. We have a Precision Swing Point trading into this wick. We have a Precision Swing Point forming the low of the week. We have a Precision Swing Point here again, trading into this wick. You see that right here? The high of today, not the week. Right? This is a Precision Swing Point. Look at this up-closed, up-closed, down-closed. This is very extremely low probability. Right? You, you don't want to see a Precision Swing Point above and below current price action. You don't want to see sequential SMT above and below current price action. Do you see what you're learning right now? You're learning how to decipher high probability market places from low probability market places. And guess when is this happening? When is this all happening? Tell me. When the first week of the month, Q1. You can't make this up, bro. You can't make this up. You can't make this up. And sorry about my language if I, you don't like stuff, you know, like that. Anyways, you can't make this up, bro. Who else is teaching stuff like this? Who else? This is why I always laugh when on, you know, YouTube, people just make videos just copying my YouTube video. When that's nothing, that is nothing. I told you guys, every week you get something new that works. It's not like, you know, Mel just posts a very, you know, bland or confusing concept. It's not confusing. I could have made it confusing, but it's not. You don't even have to like stay here for the entire 12 months. That's just for people that are crazy like this. Right here is crazy. Like, just look at this. Look at the price action. It's choppy. Why is it choppy? It's right there. Why it's choppy? Why did price turn around? It's right there. Why did price turn around? Why did price reverse? Why did price drop? Why did price rally? It's all right there in the charts. And it's crazy, man. I'm telling you. And it gets crazier too.
So, now we're going to be looking at the 90-minute cycles. Right? So, right here, and this is the afternoon session. We'll just be looking at the last two sessions today. We already looked at the New York session. Right? Now we're looking at the afternoon session. Why? Because the cracking correlation this evening happened between the New York session and the afternoon session. So, here we had price failing to break below this low, reacting to this wick. Right? The same thing happened here, but here we had price trading below it. Remember what I just said? Like, you can't make this up, man. It's too perfect. Right? It's too perfect. It really fails when you get it right. It really fails. Come on. Like, when do you always see this failing? It's just, it's either you get it wrong, but it's, I think this is just how the market works, which is why Quarterly Theory was even a thing. Quarterly Theory was just that. You guys see on YouTube was ABC. Right? Now you're learning elementary stuff. Right? There are topics that if I talk about, which is, you know, people keep asking me certain questions, and I'm like, I can't talk about that yet. There are prerequisites to understand those stuff. And it's not just, you know, a course. It's not a course. This is not a course, man. It's not a course. Courses don't work. Courses don't work. They don't work. You can't just, you know, pre-record videos and just give them to people and expect them to learn. No. You need to be using the things that you're talking about. And you need to prove to them on a daily or weekly basis that this is consistent, this works. That's how you do it. You don't just give them videos and just sell it. No. You need to be there answering questions. Right? You need to be there showing them what to do. Because if you can't show them what to do, and you don't know where price is going to go, then you have no use. You're useless. Am I right or am I wrong? I'm right. For some, right?
So, right here, after we had this cracking correlation, sequential SMT between the New York and the afternoon session, we had price rally a bit. Right? And it didn't take out this high. This, this, this. Don't take out this high. And the Dow took out this one. So, this is another way, right, of price creating high. My bad. Low probability conditions. Right? We had, first of all, we had sequential SMT here. We had sequential SMT here as well. But the price closed higher. Right? It rallied. Why did it rally? The sequential SMT is right here. Cracking correlation. Look at this candle's low right here. Where did it form? What did it react to? The same thing basically happens over and over. Right? Over and over and over and over. Look, touch the wick of what, what's this? The Precision Swing Point. Do you see that? It's insane. Precision Swing Point. The wick right here. Where did the SMT form within that wick? Why did it form within this wick? Because this, right, this was trading way below this low, this swing low, or the low of the New York session. Right? So, this was way overbought, which is why this wick and this one is so reactive. Remember I tweeted about, I not tweet, I sent you guys a message about this, right? I said that, you know, we, something around the lines that we should expect sequential SMT, and it happened. See, during the second and third quarter of the afternoon session, there was sequential SMT. We had a rallying price. So, any of these moves right here would be good. And guess what? Today was a choppy day, but I still see some of most of you guys navigating the market. So, imagine when it gets clearer. Imagine when it gets better. Just imagine. And imagine when you learn the stuff that are better than this. Right? I'm not here to like sell you guys dreams or, you know, I'm not here to just be like, you could, you know, learn how to do this or, you know, you might. I'm telling you that you, if you actually put the work in, you will. If you actually study, you will. Literally today, when I, before I basically gave a signal, because price just dropped into a fair value gap and rallied right afterwards, right after I talked about it. Right? I didn't want to do that, right? Because I know that a lot of you are going to be buying and then expecting me to always be doing that, which I probably will whenever there's, you know, clean price action. I can't help myself. But the goal is for you to do that by yourself. The reason why I do that sometimes, most of the times, well, every week, it's because, you know, you need to be reassured that I can actually do this. I know what I'm doing. I know where price is going to go. Most of the times, whenever I see the signature that I prefer to see in price action, which is this. So, sequential SMT is the base. First, you lay down what ICT on top of ICT, you put Quarterly Theory, you know, the basic that YouTube video. Then you go deeper. There is what sequential SMT. You lay that on top of that. Then that's it. You're better than everyone already. You're, you're, you're already one of the top analysts. Right? Like, literally alive. You just, you just need to use this properly. You need to apply yourself. Right? You need to study. If you don't get it yet, you need to study. Don't understand. You need to just study more. Okay, day, it's hard, and I just can't grasp this concept. Study until you do. I've been studying this for two weeks, and I, you need to backtest more. I'm failing. Do it until you stop failing. That's how you do it. You do it over and over and over and over and over until you just, you, you make every mistake possible. Right? Your brain will remember those automatically. And then that's when you inch closer to perfection. That's literally how you inch close to perfection. How do I know that, you know, if you're new, don't trade tomorrow because of everything that I just showed you in the price, in price action, it shows you this is high, this is low probability, or this is high probability. You're going to know. You're literally going to know by just looking at these signatures in price. If you realize I don't blocks, I don't, I don't like hard blocks personally. True opens, highs, lows, wicks, gaps. That's important. Quarterly Theory, you just need to know the quarters. That's just what, you know, that YouTube video is just showing you the quarters. Right?
Also, whenever you're trading the afternoon session, you want to stop trading in, you know, after Q3 finishes. Right? So, if there's not, there is not a cracking correlation, right, or a sequential SMT between Q1 and Q2, or Q2 and Q3, you're done. That's how you know that you're done for the day. Because afterwards, you're going to get price action like this. A, listen, almost 100% of the times, if there's not a current correlation between here and here, or here and here, here, don't try to trade after what time is that? 4:30. That's it. You're done. That's when you're actually done. Right? As you guys can see, during Q3, we had, you know, price rally a bit. You could get something right here. This is a five-minute chart. On the one minute, this would be a pretty good move. Right? That's where today, you guys saw, you know, I posted about this before it happened, which is always amazing to me because, you know, when I just began, I used to look up to like Michael, and I'm not, I don't, I think it's just Michael, really, because he had this next-level precision that I was aiming for, which I'm still aiming for more precision. Right? I'm always in the lab. No take, no breaks. Always, always working, man. It's, it's actually insane. It's like, I just want to know where price is going to go. That's all I want to find out. And I just make mistake after mistake backtesting, and then I'll get a, you know, numerous, you know, results from that. Take a lot of notes. Got like 10, 11 books, notebooks filled, written by hand, information, insane. You know, going through data and just, it just seeming like nonsense until it just clicks. But anyways, that's it for today, and I hope that you guys found something useful, you know, in all of this and what I'm sharing with you. And until Sunday, I will be, you know, messaging, sending messages in the group, of course. You know, Sunday, maybe we'll be, you know, having a live stream. This either this Friday, if it's not Friday, it's going to be Saturday. Right? Just talk about stuff, answer some questions, maybe. Right? Um, last Saturday, I wanted to do that, but I was very busy. So busy, it's insane. I had to be switching you guys to this, this group, which you guys don't have to worry. Right? Again, is it recording? Oh, yes, it is. Oh my God, I thought it wasn't. Yes. So, I'll speak to you guys Sunday. Saturday to later. No, Saturday, Sunday. Yeah, that's it. Saturday and Sunday. What it, we recorded Saturday? I'm not sure. Probably say some unhinged things there. Anyways, I'll talk to you guys. A nice night.
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All you want to me is a bre obsession. I am the Maring tent on burning the street. How many times can I ask you? How many days can I go away? It's without you.
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The distance is I can't.
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The fire. Many days can I go without you?
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Oh.
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