Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, we are going to prepare our trading week, next week, because tomorrow, an interview is coming out. Don't hesitate to be there, a very interesting interview. You liked the format last time, so here it is, it will be the same. So we are going to prepare a week. We will look at the different economic announcements that are coming out. We will talk about BTC, Ether, three altcoins that have been requested for analysis. I have Miota, KMNO, and ICP. And we will simply look at the potential scenarios we could have next week.
So, a big week is coming with a lot of economic announcements. It's a bit the last week before the end of the year, I want to say, because after that, there's Christmas, there's New Year's Day, with less volatility generally, and markets will be closed. And that's why there are quite a few announcements coming out, announcements that will be really important. Why? Because we saw it, the Fed lowered its rates, Powell spoke, but with the data we have, we expect potentially a rate cut for 2026, potentially two. But you should know that the market will currently only be bullish if we have data, information that confirms the potential, well, that confirms one, two, three, four rate cuts. The more data we have that goes in that direction, the more likely we are to cut rates. So currently, the market is looking for that, to put it simply. We have the rates, okay, we have the key rates. If the rates go up or remain neutral, the market won't appreciate it too much. In short, if we have data, it could be inflation, it could be the PCE, it could be the PMI, it could be the unemployment rate, the NFP, whatever. If this data tells us, "Okay, well, the rates will either go down or stay stable." That's very bearish for the market, really very bearish. Rate hikes are almost improbable, clearly impossible. On the other hand, rates remaining for a long time, yes, that's possible. However, if rates go down, okay, we'll put a green color here. That's bullish for the market. And how do the Fed and monetary policy make decisions on rates? It's based on the data they have, based on a lot of data, the most well-known being the PCE, inflation, CPI, PMI, unemployment, NFP, job creation. All of these are the big data points that will be released. There are others, but these are really the most important ones. And next week, we have this data. What do we have? We have NFP job creation, we have the unemployment rate, okay? And here we have the CPI, inflation. So, you really need to get into a mindset of saying, "Okay, what do we want? We want rates to go down." So, to have rates go down, we simply want the economy not to be doing too well. Because if the economy is doing well, if the economy is very bullish, everything is going well, everything is going perfectly, there's a lot of job creation, unemployment is decreasing, and everything is fine. What will happen? Well, we will simply have an increase in inflation because the economy is very stimulated, there is a lot of demand, everything is going well. What happens? Inflation. And when there's inflation, what happens? An increase in rates or at least rates remaining stable. Why? Because when we increase rates, it's to slow down the economy, okay? To fight inflation. And when we lower rates, it's to stimulate the economy when inflation is decreasing. And that's why the market, recently, or rather the Fed, has lowered its rates because we had confirmations that inflation was decreasing, with a target of 2%. So, with the announcements coming out, here, we have job creation rates. What do we want? We will see how the market prices in based on what is expected. Okay? Because we always have results that are expected in advance. Regardless of the economic announcements that come out. If we have results that are above or below expectations, that's where volatility is created. And what we want for job creation is less job creation than expected. We want a high unemployment rate. Which shows us that the economy is not doing well. Not well. Why? Because that way, the Fed will have more chance to lower its rates. We want inflation to decrease here, okay? We will have confirmations, you will be below expectations because we can have inflation decreasing, but if it's in line with expectations, it won't change the market. What we want is really news that shocks the market, that shows us that, okay, we are clearly below expectations or above, depending on the announcements, and all of that will simply allow us to potentially lower rates because, as we saw together, here, okay, I'll go back to it. Look. We see that if we project for 2026, we can expect approximately. Currently, we are between 3.50 and 3.75. We can expect for 2026 around 3 to 3.5, approximately between 3 and 3.5. That's what's predicted. For 2027, it will be close to 3. So, we see that it's long compared to 2025 where we had, I don't remember how many rate cuts, we had 3, I don't have them in mind anymore, but we had quite a few. Well, we can go and see that together. Look, let's put a chart here. Look. There. You see? Look! 2024, 2025, we had rate cuts. We had three rate cuts in 2025. One, two, three. We were here at, yes. Four, I think we had two or three rate cuts, and the Fed's pivot started in 2024, and here we don't want, well, it's rare anyway, already the plateaus, because here what's predicted is something like this, yes, we will move towards three, but over 2026, 2027, it's something very slow, not like this phase where we had a sharp rate cut, a sharp rate cut, and ideally for the market, that's what we want, not too fast either, because a market that cuts rates too quickly isn't the best thing either, but in any case, faster than what we have here. And for that, we simply need, as I said, reassuring announcements for the Fed and for the market. There. And next week, as I said, quite a few announcements. So, you'll have to be in front of your screens, simply see what's happening. Trade if you have setups, even if I don't trade economic announcements too much, unless I have fairly interesting high-probability signals.
Now, regarding BTC, where are we? Still at these resistance levels, it's not moving. That's why the reviews are quite quick on Bitcoin. We are focusing on altcoins, we are talking a bit about trading. I'm sharing advice on certain points. Okay, but here we are really in a phase where there's nothing to do. We've come back to roughly the middle of the range after rejecting at the upper extremity. It's the weekend, generally low volatility, and often what's quite common is Saturday, Sunday, nothing much happens, and Sunday end of day, we start to push a bit, which is what we did here. You see, Saturday, Sunday, not much, and end of day, around 5 PM, we start to push. We could potentially do the same, but we have quite a few dips to come and test. Potentially a rather bearish Monday. Now, I don't want to anticipate. Here, I'm talking to you based on what I see very often on weekends, it's quite common to do something like this. Now, you should never anticipate the market, you should always react to what you see. It's very simple. Someone who doesn't trade trends, who doesn't trade ranges, for example, like me. Well, I'm not saying I don't trade them. When I say that, it's mostly that I trade them much less and I clearly prefer to trade trends. Here, what you need to realize is that there's a battle going on. There's a battle between what? Between buyers who are supporting the lower boundary and simply sellers who are supporting the upper boundary. The beginner trader will try to anticipate the breakout, saying, "Yes, it's going to break here," or they'll say, "Hey, I'll support the sellers, I'll prevent the price from going up, I'll support the buyers, I'll prevent the price from going up." No, no, don't anticipate. Let the battle unfold. Okay? Wait for a victory from the buyers or sellers and join the winning side. That's how it works. If you try to anticipate, you're in prediction, you're in something that's too uncertain, whereas when you wait for real confirmation, for a bullish confirmation, a bearish confirmation, whatever, with a pullback. And then you say, "Okay, you're choosing a side, you're choosing the winning side." It's not because a side won a battle that it's 100% sure they'll win the next one, but in any case, they have a higher probability. There. That's how it is, a bit like that. If I try to make small comparisons. Okay? And here, clearly, if you trade a flow, if you trade a breakout, you have to wait for that breakout, and for the moment, we don't have any breakout at all.
Now, I was asked a question, I'll answer it. I was told, "Yes, Nico, how do you know when we have a real breakout?" A real breakout can be seen with an increase in volume. It can be seen with a CVD breaking on smaller timeframes. For example, on a 1-hour chart, we want to see a strongly increasing CVD, which is not the case. See here, strongly decreasing CVD, so we don't have a concrete breakout. We also ideally want to see it during a period with a lot of volatility, during the New York session, during the day, not especially at night, or even less on weekends or holidays, because it can be much more shaky and often a false breakout. We can look at that, we also have to look at the close. Is it a timid close, or a concrete close? You see here, look, if I take this example here on H4, and we analyze H4 closes above this level together. There, okay. There, no close. Here, no close, but a wick that tells us, "Attention, bearish reaction." Okay. Then, we react. No close here. Ah, we might think, "Wow, great, I have a close above this level, it's good, we've broken out." Look at the shape of the candle. We have a wick here that represents more than 50% of the candle, which indicates a bearish reaction. The next candle, what do we have? Same, another upper wick. The next candle, a red wick. Red candle wick, red candle. Here, nothing concrete. We go below, we re-enter. That's not a breakout. Here, we already have a more interesting breakout, except that now the breakout is here, since we made a higher high, and here a wick. And even if this level had been broken, we don't have a concrete breakout. These are false breakouts that I don't like to see. If we take real breakouts, ah, that's a real breakout. That's a real candle. A beautiful candle. That too, that too. But when we have this type of candle, you see, it's not great. Look, the wicks always tell a story. Yes, you have to consider closes to really wait for a breakout, but also look at the wicks. It's good to have a close, but if you have a range here with a sideways phase, you have a breakout at this level, and you have a candle that looks like this with a wick so high where we swallow everything. Yes, okay, great, we're breaking out, but we have a strong bearish reaction. There's a difference between breaking out and acceptance, as I often like to say. We can break out very well, but then what you need to look at is when we move above, do we settle in, or do we re-enter? These are two completely different things. And here, we clearly see that we are re-entering. So, for the moment, on BTC, my scenarios for the week, I will first monitor the Monday opening because on Monday, we don't have any economic announcements. The announcements arrive on Tuesday and Friday. Okay? So, I will mainly look at Monday's movement. Do I have a stop hunt? Do I have a return to the upper extremity, a return to the lower extremity? I will use Monday's day to re-prepare our week based on how Monday moves. That will allow me to see, okay, how we are starting this week, because as I said, we have announcements, and the announcements will be very important. Now, my plan hasn't changed much. If we start to break this level, the most probable thing is to aim for 99,000. That's the next perfectly realistic target. If we hold 99,000 and want to go higher, we can aim for $105,000 here. These are resistance levels. After that, there are several ways to look for retracement levels. We can put resistance levels, we can put Fibonacci retracements. We see that the 0.382 is almost in confluence with 99,000. So, there's a good zone. Well, the 0.18 is a bit below, above, sorry. We can put a volume profile, meaning we take this entire movement and say, "Okay, where have I left gaps?" Well, we see that again, our value area is perfectly aligned with 99,000 and the 0.382. It's a zone, yes, this zone, we know it marks a point of interest. We have an imbalance here, and then if we go higher, well, after that, the levels are further, there's the value high which is much higher, a good confluence around $116,000, but above all, it's especially from a price action perspective, the $106,000 level. After that, we can, as I say, look for confluences like this, and we see that here we have a strong confluence at this level. Look, a very strong confluence of levels. Well, there's no point in looking for too many, because then I can put pivot points, I can... No. Well, there, we know that this is a big zone. So, in case we break this level, the next zone is here. Which still leaves us, if we play a pullback, a 5-6% for a swing. A swing is entirely possible. There's room. And even here for intraday or scalp, we can look to continue the trend. And we know that when we approach 97,500, 98,000, 99,000, this zone, we can say, "Okay, attention, slow down because we are approaching a resistance level." So, this is only if we break upwards. Now, if we go back to test the lower extremity and start to settle below the resistance, then we will have a high chance of doing this. Okay, losing this level, well, after that, it's globally the $73,000 level. There's no in-between for me, it's this big level. After that, we can do the same thing. We put a Fibonacci. Now, Fibonacci, we are right on the 0.382. If we lose it, it's towards 0.5. You see, there's a good confluence, $70,000 to $75,000. After that, again, we'll do the same thing by putting a volume profile here. After that, the biggest accumulation was largely at the bottom. I'm a bit less of a fan of volume profiles on very long term like this, but if we do the work, we see that we can be interested in the gaps in the volume profile. We see that we have one perfectly at this level. $73,700. We have a LVN here. We have one perfectly here again, and one perfectly here. Now, I don't think we'll go back to test levels as low as that. We have a very good confluence between, if you want a very precise level, $73,700. It could be an interesting zone in case we lose this level. The goal is simply to go step by step. Now, I'll be curious to see, because I'm on B-spot, just on the perpetual contract. If I draw a Fibonacci here, no, draw a Fibonacci, volume profile, it's more or less the same, the imbalances are globally here. Here, there was quite a bit of volume, but yes, it's globally similar. So, that's globally my plan for BTC. And then, if we find some volatility again, we can trade the trend with moving averages.
Now, on Ether, so Ether will also be impacted by the announcements. Look. Ah, I've deleted all the support and resistance levels I had. That's a shame. Well, we rejected at this level. Okay, we are still consolidating at our lower extremity at this level, around 2007-2008. Very good. So, we're playing ping-pong. We see the upper extremity. Here, we have a high chance of going back to test the lower extremity. Now, on daily, we remain in an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. Okay. Now, on 4-hour, we have reversed the dynamic and especially we have moved back below the moving averages, below the 15-minute, below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour. So, really here, I wouldn't do anything, honestly. I wouldn't do anything unless, as a buyer, I wouldn't do anything unless I manage to regain this level. Break this high, pullback like this. Okay, then it can be taken to aim for this level. But here, looking for longs is a bit suicidal because we have lost important levels, and especially an impulse, a second, a third, we could be at the end of an uptrend with a correction here. We could very well bounce, make an MTP, that's possible. If I put a MACD here, we see clearly, look, loss of momentum, bearish divergence validated at this level. Which confirms that buyers no longer have much control over momentum. So, I would be rather cautious about that. And if I have to intervene on Ether, well, it's the same, this level of 2008. And if we lose this level, then the next big level on Ether is still the same, $2200. And if we have a retracement of 3004, we saw together, I'll retrace the levels, we globally have 3008 at this level, and a good level, and then it's around 4000, this zone. These are zones, they always work by zones, we don't draw a precise level to the dollar. And I can also put Fibonacci to determine, in case of a retracement, we have the 0.118 which is perfectly in confluence here with $4000. If I want to be more precise, I can put a volume profile and determine where I have gaps. The value area is also a good zone. Yes, $3750-$3800 is a good zone. We have the POC in confluence with the 0.786, and then here we have a small LVN at this level. And the goal is always to simply look for confluences. There.
So, on Ether, we will also talk about the US market, which I hope will make an ATH this week, because we are starting to enter a very mature range and consolidating near the ATH like this, we reject a bit. Anyway, on the S&P 500, you can tell yourself that. You can tell yourself, we make a new ATH with a real breakout, a timid breakout. I have examples of timid breakouts on the SP. At this level. Do you remember this level? February, I still remember, I had a very bearish signal on the S&P 500, and I was the first to tell you, I'm getting out of cryptos on BTC, it was February 20th, it was before the big dump. Well, it was at this level. I told you, I had already exited once here, I had exited a second time here, and just after, -20% to -30% on BTC. Why? Because you see, these are timid breakouts, these are breakouts I don't like. And when we are like this, consolidating near the ATH, it doesn't break out. And here, we have a really timid breakout, a push to the high, followed by a red candle. No, very, very ugly. So, here, tell yourself that on the S&P 500, we are a bit in this configuration. There are two big levels to watch. 68, it's 6950. We make a new ATH, we close above, okay, that's good. Potentially, we have a new rally, a new rise on BTC, on the S&P 500, with a January that could be quite good, and cryptos that will experience their rebound. If we don't do that and we lose this level, for me, it's back to testing the lower extremity, and that wouldn't be very good for the future. I'm not saying this level will break, I'm just saying we could experience a good -4% on the S&P 500, which would cause a good drop in cryptos. From a probability standpoint, well, if I base it solely on technicals, we have a higher chance of making a new ATH because we are in an upward dynamic, we are above the moving averages. Okay. If I base it on market context, lower volatility, for me, we have a higher chance of breaking 6008. So, I won't specifically anticipate it. Again, I will react to what I see. If I see that we lose 6008, well, on cryptos, we will also have to make decisions because it won't be good.
Let's move on to altcoins. So, I had said Miota. Yota, probably, I must have typed it wrong. I'm typing altcoins wrong at the moment. There's no Miota. No, it's Yota. Well, Yota. This is crypto. There's nothing to do with it, I'm telling you. There's absolutely nothing to do. If you own this type of crypto, don't waste any more time, don't waste any more energy on it. I made a video on YouTube, I told you these cryptos will go to zero. These cryptos will go to zero. Yota, there are many others, all the cryptos that were present in 2017 that pumped, the majority did not make a new ATH in 2021, and those that did not make a new ATH have not made one in 2024-2025 either. And the trend here is bearish. And if you own this type of crypto, it's not like it's a crypto where you can do DeFi, you can do things on Yota, you do nothing. You put Yota USD here. Let's put crypto.yota USD divided by crypto.btc USD. Look, it's a crypto that has never performed against BTC. Well, during some phases, yes, but this is a crypto you can hold for 1 month, 2 months, maybe 3 months if you have good signals. But otherwise, in the long term, it's a crypto that will be outperformed by BTC. There's nothing to do with it. There's no buy signal, nothing. It's a crypto. There's nothing to do. If you really want to enter a position, well, wait for this type of signal where we break the daily tunnel, like here. You see, at the moment we break it at this level, we go up well, and there we have a x2. Here, we break it, we can go up a bit. But tell yourself, take your profits quickly, and for me, these cryptos, there's no point in owning them. If I even look from a market cap perspective, it's outside the top 100. It just went outside the top 100. Yes, these are cryptos that will do nothing in the long term. Market cap that is also making lower lows, price that is making lower lows. Well. After, people often ask me to analyze this crypto because they are inside, they are positioned. Honestly, where we are, honestly, we are at an all-time low. So, already, I think everyone who has Yota in their portfolio is in the red. You really entered at this wick or this wick, probability almost zero. And well, if I take, let's do something simple to get an average, I'll take Binance. Very good. I'll take a volume profile. Let's put a volume profile at this level. Okay, there's a POC there. So, high chance that if you entered, it's globally in this zone. You have an average price to retrace around 20 cents, you are already at -50. Okay. Well, I expected better. If I had seen -85% to -90%, I would have said, don't waste energy on it. Capital divided by 2, it's still a good portion that you can recover. If you are not comfortable with a position, the most important thing is to sell it. Okay? If today you have Yota, and it's a position that bothers you, you sleep poorly, etc., cut it. Cut it. Even if tomorrow it goes up +20% +30%, don't start saying, "Ah, if only I had known, etc., I could have bought more courses, I could have gone on a trip, I don't know what." No, don't make estimations like that. If you are not comfortable with a position, cut it. Okay? Now, we are losing levels. Yes, for me, that's ugly. And to find something borderline bullish, we would at least need to re-enter the value area here and from this current low. Okay, we could say, very good, we could have a return to the mean towards the POC, but otherwise, no, for the moment, there's nothing to do with it.
Next, KMO. So, maybe a slightly better crypto. Okay, it's already a bit better. Let's switch to daily because we don't have much history on it. 3 days. Look, it's a range. I'll put it in normal. So, it's a range, a crypto that has held up quite well, in the sense that altcoins have taken a hit. Is it listed on what? No, that's all. Okay. Yes, it hasn't taken too much of a hit. 40%. You see, even at the lowest point here, we went to -66%. So, it's a crypto that's resisting quite well. Now, this is range trading, meaning, you take your extremities. Unfortunately, I'm not on an exchange to see volumes. I won't go far with this. Okay, maybe it's listed somewhere. Well, we'll stick with this. We'll do it without volume profile. Anyway, it's simple. Our lower extremity is here. Here, we are looking for longs. And our upper extremity is at this level. Here, we are simply looking for shorts. And the middle of the range is globally here. So, we have a tight range. From an amplitude perspective, well, we are on a x2. At the lower extremity, we are looking for longs. We have a partial TP at the middle of the range and a total TP at the opposite extremity, or we can keep a small part in case of a breakout. Otherwise, we can look for shorts here to do, well, the opposite. The only signal where we would have a concrete breakout is if we exit this level, break it, pullback. There, it can be taken with an invalidation in case of re-entry, and we could say, "Okay, target number 1 is 0.382, target number 2 is 0.618." There, plus, there's a good confluence here from a price action perspective. This is the only setup I would see. And well, we must not break this level. If we lose this level, well, here, you see the chart of Yota, well, it will be the same. This is a chart that will go down well, because automatically when we break this kind of lateralization that has lasted for almost a year since 2025, a year of range, it's not just to take -10%. You can bet we'll go much lower.
Behind, crypto ICP, on Binance, because I have enough history. Well, we missed the entire movement. We re-entered the, yes, the entire movement, the entire rise we had. We are coming back to test this demand zone where we had taken a trade at the time. We are going there with a price action that is really ugly, except for those who are shorting. You see, this is, I like charts like this. For shorting, it's always good, very simple to trade. You put moving averages and you see all the highs are protected. All the highs here are protected. We see that sellers sometimes have small excesses at this level, but globally, we remain in a medium-term bearish trend, and there are quite a few, well, -25%, it's clearly tradable on intraday or swing, and for the moment, there are no signs of recovery, nothing at all. We are coming back to test a good zone, this demand zone where we had quite a few imbalances to fill. Well, we have come back to test the last zone. For the moment, there is nothing. Here, we are not marking a bottom. What we need is a sideways phase like we had here, no more lower lows, and enter a phase where we make higher highs, a W structure. Here, if we have that, we can say, "Okay, we are marking a bottom, and potentially we could experience a 0.382 retracement phase." Above all, we have quite a few highs that have never been tested. Above all these highs, tell yourself that there are quite a few stops, okay? Stops from short sellers who are simply protecting themselves, and shorts that are liquidated, these are buy markets, and that's where we can recreate some momentum if we move back above these levels. You see, it's like here, when it, when we move above these highs like this, it can take off. When we move above there, bam, we simply have short squeezes because above these highs, we have quite a few, well, SLs to find. You see, above there, bam, it explodes until it reaches a stage where there are fewer, and above all, on the other side, we have a bearish reaction. If we start to have a small bullish signal, well, you can have a trade that can be taken on ICP. Especially since historically, we are in a zone, look, there, we are in a very good zone to defend. Well, I'll leave you with that. I've said everything I wanted to say. Interview tomorrow, so don't hesitate to watch it. And for those who are not here in the trader letter, tomorrow I'm sending an interesting email. We'll talk a bit about multi-analysis. I'll give you some tips for your analyses. Well, you can join the trader letter by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.