Transcription
Who really controls the Chinese regime? I'll walk you through the PLA's latest military exercises around Taiwan, how the drills started, and why they were suddenly called off. This will give us surprising clues about the real condition of Chinese military and the true state of Xi Jinping's power.
It has been one month since the rumors first emerged about the purge of the vice chairman, He Dong. Just one day ago, the Financial Times, citing six sources, confirmed his purge, making it the first time that a major western media outlet reported on He's downfall. This once again shows how the rumor mill often leads the mainstream media in predicting shifts in Chinese politics. So never underestimate the power of rumors in Chinese politics.
So, according to the Financial Times, He Dong is currently being interrogated by authorities. Meanwhile, Professor Yan Hong Bing, drawing from his own inside sources, has disclosed even more details about He's situation. All right. So, while in detention, according to Professor Yuan, He Dong reportedly denied all accusations made against him by Ma, the director of the PLA's political work department. To prove his loyalty, he even pinched himself and wrote a blood letter to Xi Jinping. He also vouched for General Ling Xiangyang, commander of the Eastern Theater Command, insisting that General Ling had shown no disloyalty to Xi Jinping either.
He Dong and Ling Xiangyang are the two key PLA commanders responsible for overseeing military operations against Taiwan. Their detention and purge have triggered intense speculation about who was actually in charge during the joint military exercise that took place from April 1st to the 2nd, or maybe from the 2nd to the 3rd.
So, on April 1st, the PLA abruptly announced a large-scale joint military exercise involving the Army, the Navy, Air Force, and the rocket force around Taiwan. The next day, they officially named it Straight Thunder 2025A. However, the exercise ended prematurely on the second day, well before the full plan could unfold. Although the PLA claimed that the Eastern Theater Command was leading the drill, deeper issues were at play. Professor Yuan revealed key details about what really happened behind the scenes.
As you all know, on March 13th, Taiwan's president, William Lai, officially declared the CCP, or the Chinese Communist regime, a hostile foreign force to Taiwan. Um, and he introduced 17 Taiwan protection bills to counter Beijing's infiltration efforts. By that point, He Dong had already been detained because he was reportedly taken away immediately after the conclusion of the CCP's two sessions, which ended on March 10th. So, he was either taken away on March 10th or the 11th. So, by the time William Lai made the statement on March 13th, General He Dong was already detained. Um, and then soon after that, Commander Ling Xiangyang was also under investigation.
So, according to Professor Yuan, when Xi Jinping heard that President Lai made the statement about the CCP being a hostile foreign force, he flew into an uncontrollable rage and demanded an immediate military response from the Eastern Theater Command. But because both General He Dong and Ling Xiangyang were under investigation, the political commissar of the Eastern Theater Command could not immediately mobilize for a military drill.
So, apparently organizing a military drill is a complex and delicate operation for the CCP because it requires systemwide coordination and careful political calibration. They want to make sure they avoid accidental escalation or friendly fire. Uh, they need to address how to control the intensity of the drills and how to display defiance without triggering a full-blown crisis. So all of this needs to be coordinated ahead of time. And given all these factors, the political commissar and the chief of staff of the eastern theater command were unable to swiftly carry out Xi Jinping's direct orders.
In the end, the Central Military Commission's security forces had to step in. They escorted He Dong and Ling Xiangyang to the CMC command center to take command of the exercise, the military exercise. Only with this intervention did the drill finally begin. And then on April 2nd, the PLA officially launched the Straight Thunder 2025A exercise. And the original plan for the drills was a week until April 8th, but instead, they were abruptly halted after just two days.
What happened? Well, it's said that someone, we don't know who it was, someone close to Xi Jinping issued a stark warning to him. It says that even though Ling Xiangyang were operating under close supervision, they still retained command authority. And if either of them were to give a real order to open fire across the Taiwan Strait, it could trigger a major international incident. There were serious concerns that they might take desperate action. So, to mitigate this risk, the CCP immediately or abruptly terminated the exercise after just two days.
So this is the latest information Professor Yuan has obtained, and it says that at this point it has not been independently verified. However, if accurate, this information explains: one, why the CCP waited more than two weeks to respond to William Lai's declaration; and two, why the PLA's joint military exercise or exercises started and ended so abruptly, lasting only two days. More importantly, we can draw several observations, or key observations, about the real situation inside China's military and Xi Jinping's hold on power.
Um, I came up with seven observations. First, Xi Jinping is still nominally in command of the PLA. His authority hasn't completely collapsed. Second, without vice chairman He Dong and Eastern Theater Commander Ling Xiangyang, the PLA could not even properly execute a joint military exercise. The political commissar and chief of staff of the Eastern Theater Command were paralyzed. They couldn't act decisively even when given direct instructions from Xi Jinping. If they can't even handle the drill, imagine how much worse it could be in a real war scenario. Third, the PLA's command chain is extremely brittle and dangerously overdependent on a few individuals. If one or two senior commanders are taken down during war, right, the entire operation grinds to a halt. That's a major vulnerability. Fourth, Xi Jinping's growing paranoia is actively sabotaging the PLA's combat effectiveness. By purging generals and obsessively hunting for disloyalty, he has created an atmosphere of fear inside the military ranks. Fear paralyzes decision-making. In war, hesitation can be fatal. Under these conditions, the PLA could collapse into chaos faster than most people expect. Number five, the ability of the PLA to control escalation during a real conflict is highly questionable. Even during this simple drill, political officers worried about accidental discharge of fire. The possibility of unintended escalation, right? If they are this worried about a controlled, scripted exercise, imagine how risky a real, high-pressured, fast-moving cross-strait military clash would be. The system simply isn't built to manage real-time, high-stakes escalation. Sixth, the PLA Straight Thunder 2025A exercise looks more like a political theater than actual military preparation. It was clearly intended to show strength to Taiwan, the United States, and the Chinese domestic audience as a publicity stunt. Even the military personnel know that, and it's not for real. And finally, the failed drill shows that Xi Jinping's control over the PLA is becoming more fragile, not stronger. Yeah. So, yes, he can still bark orders, and people still publicly follow him, but underneath the system is rotting. His grip is increasingly held together by surveillance, purges, and brute fear. There's no genuine loyalty or operational trust. Right? So, in a prolonged crisis, this fragile control will likely collapse.
So, in short, the PLA today is a hollow force. So, while Xi Jinping still wants to project an image of strength and while the PLA will continue to stimulate aggressiveness, the reality inside the Chinese military tells a very different story. So, right now, the chance for Xi Jinping to launch a real military attack on Taiwan looks very small. Uh, not because he doesn't want to, but because he cannot.