Transcription
So, the markets just keep making new all-time highs, and the big question is when does this rally end? I'm going to go over a few key factors that I see potentially ending this rally in the next two weeks. And I'm also going to talk about a few stocks that do provide some opportunity right now, especially with all our favorite stocks getting a little bit overextended here. But remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary.
Now, let's take a look at the account. As you can see, we hit new all-time highs today. And if you do want to see me hit my 8 figure goal and follow along that journey, be sure to be subscribed by clicking the subscribe button down below. And if you get any value out of this video, I would highly appreciate you hitting the thumbs up button for me. I appreciate you being here.
So, let's go ahead and go into the realized gain loss. And uh current month, you know, we're up 32K, but for today, we had a nice um nice pretty nice day of 5K in premiums. Obviously, results vary month to month, but uh today was a good day.
Now, uh if you do want access to some of my free trades, I give those away on my Instagram and my free newsletter, uh which are both down below in the description. Also, if you'd like to work one-on-one with me, that'll be at the top of the description below. But let's go ahead and jump straight into it, okay? Because there's a lot of things going on right now that potentially could lead to some volatility in the next couple weeks, okay?
Um, as we talked about in yesterday's update, I talked about uh President Trump's H1B $100,000 visa fee on new H1B applicants. Okay. Um, it looks like that is going through and companies are already kind of scrambling trying to figure out what they're going to do. Now, what's important here is we analyze not what companies say, but what they actually do. And it's kind of crazy because my prediction yesterday where I said, "Hey, companies are going to start uh this is only going to, you know, uh increase AI adoption even faster and companies are going to start finding out finding solutions via the AI route so they won't have to hire uh new H1B uh visa holders."
So, you know, as we see right here, Nvidia, we need the smartest people. Nvidia open AI CEOs react to Trump's H-1B visa fee. So Jensen Huang, he even said, "Hey, like we need smart minds. We need skilled people." And some of those people are in India and China in different countries, right? And I think it's great that we hire uh people from outside as well as hiring Americans. Okay. But the key thing right here is in this next article, okay, today Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as a part of its data center buildout. Okay. Huang even said that Nvidia will ship this year twice as much as last year. The stock shot up um I believe like 3 or 4% today. And that shows you that, you know, Jensen Huang's not saying, "Hey, we're going to, you know, because of this $100,000 fee, we're going to start hiring more Americans." He did not say that. Instead, what he did was he said, "Hey, we're going to invest way more into ChatGPT, OpenAI, and data center buildouts to expand AI faster to replace jobs." Okay? Now, I know he didn't add on the replace jobs part. That is just my theory but it looks like this is actually going forward. Okay.
So um there's going to be a lot of changes in the market in the economy and in jobs but I do see this benefiting shareholders and companies because as AI adoption becomes more robust. U it will increase profit margins because less liabilities for hiring employees. Okay.
Now if we jump into the economic calendar we can see we have a few things on the list. Um, tomorrow, Federal uh, Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at 12:35 p.m. Okay, so that could cause a little bit of volatility. Uh, we have GDP on Thursday and core PCE on Friday. Uh, so definitely some important news there in data coming in, but next week we have um unemployment. Okay, next Friday. So by next Friday, I think there will be some volatility either this week, early next week or next Friday when that unemployment report comes out.
Um, as you can see the CME FedWatch tool, we are getting two rate cuts being priced in uh next month and in December. So rate cuts good for the markets to keep going up. But let's talk about the short term. Yes, I do think the market is going up for a very long time. for the long term. I'm very bullish here in the next two years. But in the short term, we're getting a little bit overextended here as we see on QQQ. Okay, we are definitely overbought on the RSI. Um, we are touching that upper Bollinger band. In fact, we breached it for the past 3 days. Okay, so there needs to be some sort of at least consolidation here or a pullback or else this becomes very unhealthy. Okay, this rally if it continues up to 610 like I called yesterday. All right, we are going to probably see a bigger pullback. All right, so just being prepared for that.
Um I do think that you know this week if we could get a little pullback, a little breather that will give us chances to get into our favorite stocks because right now the concentration is going very heavy into tech. If you look at the um SP S5FI, which is the S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average, it's at like 56%. Meaning not there's not very many stocks. I mean, 56% of stocks are above their 50-day moving average, but there's still a large majority that aren't. And that tells me a lot of the rotation is just going straight into tech right now. Okay? As we see, all our favorite tech stocks are up. So, that rotation eventually will come out. So, it's kind of a stock picker's market right now. So, you do have to be very careful and just kind of wait for the setups. I stocks that are uh a little bit down kind of at this mid Bollinger band line or lower. And I'm going to go over a few today. Okay.
Um, if we look at VIX, okay, VIX is doing something kind of interesting here. As the market hits new all-time highs, we saw this last week going into the uh Jerome Powell speech and the interest rate cut decision. We saw VIX climbing up, people putting on hedges, people basically buying hedges for their portfolio as the market continued higher and that's what we are again seeing. Okay, QQQ hit new all-time highs today and we are seeing the VIX which is the fear and volatility index up 4% today into the 16. So this is telling me there is some fear and it is building because people see the market just continuing to melt upwards and as it does people start to buy protection because the chances of a piece of bad news causing the market to fall get greater and greater every day that we head higher.
So I'm not being um you know I'm not trying to be the bearer of bad news but uh you know definitely you want to be allocated according to the VIX cash allocation level. So, let's kind of dive into that. As you can see, right now we are between VIX 15 and 20. So, slight fear in the markets. Essentially, I could be 20 to 25% in cash. Right now, I'm definitely more aggressive. I'm about 17% in cash. Um, but I do plan on probably shoring up a little bit of cash as this is very interesting seeing the VIX go higher again as the market goes higher. Usually, when we see that, like the last time I saw that was during the tariffs crash. Um, so I just am mindful of those things.
Now, I don't think we're going to have a crash of any sort, but uh a definite, you know, a five to 10% pullback wouldn't be out of the cards, um in my mind, and I want to make sure that I have cash to be prepared to buy that dip. Okay, if we do head downwards here, maybe to this u, you know, 580 level. All right, I want to be able to buy that dip. And that's not too far off. I think that's definitely probable. um on any bad data that comes in. Maybe GDP comes in a little bit softer than expected. You know, a 3 to 5% pullback definitely possible. Okay, so we could head as low as 571 or we could go all the way down to this lower Bollinger band at the 560 level. Um, which would be about almost a 7% dip. Okay, now I'm not expecting that in the next couple days, but we will see. Uh if the market can continue upwards, then yes, that'll be more probable. But if we kind of trade sideways and we do some digestion and rotation out of some tech stocks back into some others like utilities and um other sectors then that will be more healthy if we get this type of action. Okay.
So just being mindful but um there are a few stocks with some opportunities. So let's take a look at Nvidia here. Now I like Nvidia because Nvidia just had a huge up move today. Yes, not the ultimate day to get in. Um it it like if you got in right now, it wouldn't be the best entry, but it's still kind of touching those previous all-time highs that we saw back in August. So, this thing hasn't gotten too overextended. PE ratio is great. It's 52. Uh we're not overbought on the RSI and MACD is just showing kind of a bullish crossover. So, I think Nvidia has room to run as the market melts up or even if the market comes down a bit, I don't think Nvidia will get hit that hard. it will probably just come back within this range um until the market kind of goes up again and then Nvidia will head much higher. So, I like Nvidia.
Um, let's kind of look at what positions I have and what I plan on doing. But remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. Now, if you take a look at the account, my current Nvidia position is 170K in cash secured puts. I have the 170s. I like that price point. If I got assigned there, great. But it looks like I'm going to have to go a little bit higher on my strikes for next month. So, once I close these out, probably tomorrow or, you know, sometime this week, I'll go out to potentially the end of October. Okay. Um, and I'll probably go to the 175s, okay? And I'm going to collect 515 bucks there with a potential ROI of 3% depending on where the stock is. Obviously, results vary on that. Um, but I do like that strike for October and those are probably going to be the ones that I go after for that potential 3% ROI. Um, so that's Nvidia. Again, a stock that I think is has a lot of upside potential. Uh, you know, Jensen Huang is already talking about, hey, they're going to double their chip shipments this year as opposed to last year. So, lots of growth there.
Now, another one is Amazon. Okay, Amazon got kind of hit today and it's headed towards that lower Bollinger band. So, Amazon's looking like a very ripe opportunity here. It's not even it hasn't even breached its previous all-time highs prior to the tariffs crash, which was about 242. So, Amazon I love in the portfolio and that's why I continue to have this position. Now, there's two opportunities here. There is cash secured put plays which is safe. Um, and then there's a potential LEAPS play coming up if we could see this thing get down, you know, into the 223 to 225 range. But, um, let's take a look at the position. As you can see, current position 136K in cash secured puts. I have the 225s, the 230s, and the 225s. So, again, I like that price point there. I've been assigned there. I've had the shares at that price and got them called away. Um, so I don't mind getting assigned there uh once more. But if I go out to the end of October, again, October 31st, just to be, you know, give myself ample amount of room to be right, I'm fine going to the 225s, and that would be I would collect 800 bucks if I sold these 225s, uh, with a potential ROI of 3.8%. Obviously, results vary, depends where the stock is at, but if the stock goes below 225 in 31 days, 39 days rather, I would be forced to buy 100 shares at 225. So, I'm fine with that. Um, and I like that return profile there. So, I'll probably reposition my um this position right here this week into the back into the 225s, but for October.
Now, for a LEAPS play, if the stock could get down to the lower Bollinger band, I'll probably go out to Jan 15, 2027. And I'll just grab the 70 deltas, which would most likely be somewhere around the 205 or 200s, pay 5K versus paying 22K for 100 shares and control 100 shares there. So, just kind of waiting for that moment. Um, but I will be uh looking out for that potential LEAPS play. So, that's the second stock.
Now, let's go ahead and go into the third. And then we got one more stock after that. Um, Palantir. Okay, Palantir is still in my opinion um a good play here. Now, it's not too overextended as far as like, you know, where the market is. If the market was at, you know, the market's at all-time highs right now, and if this thing got to 200, then I would say, okay, you know, you we got to wait on Palantir. But it's kind of been trading in this range for about almost a couple months now. So, I like that um range, and there's still some good premiums to be collected. We're not overbought on the RSI and I do think the next earnings will be amazing. So, let's go ahead and dive into which position I like.
All right, so let's take a look at the portfolio. If we go here, you can see my Palantir position is 96K. So, it's not too much, you know, considering that we are a little bit overextended on the PE ratio and fundamentals. Um, it's definitely a lighter position that I've had on Palantir, but I'm down to kind of build this position out if if we could get some weakness into it in the next couple weeks. So, um, I'd probably go out to the end of October again, and I would just go after the, uh, 165s or 167 and a halfs. Those two cash secured puts look good to collect about three a potential 3.5% ROI or a potential 4% ROI depending on where the stock is. Results vary there, but I I do like those two strikes and a good amount of premium to be collected um, in my opinion. So, that would be the Palantir play. And then lastly, okay, and and the reason again that I like Palantir, it's not overbought on the RSI and it's been kind of in a steady upward trend versus parabolic.
Now, the last one is SoFi. SoFi has been parabolic. This one is going to specifically be, hey, let's wait for a pullback and then there's a specific cash secured put strike price that I like. Okay, so um we definitely way overextended on the RSI. uh over here we're overbought and we've breached this upper Bollinger band like multiple days in a row. So I do think that SoFi will have a pullback into this 28 region, maybe the high 28s, low 28 somewhere in there. And with that, I would go ahead and readjust my position.
So let's go ahead and go into the portfolio. As you can see, current uh position size is 178K cash secured puts. I have the 23 and a halfs that expire this Friday and I'm about 96% up in premium on those. So, um, these will be adjusted and I'm thinking of going out to the end of October, which is actually an earnings play for this week, October 31st. And I'll probably go to, you know, somewhere between uh the 26 or 26 and a halfs. Okay, that's a 23 to 26 delta. So, that's the probabilities of me getting assigned 100 shares. So, probability of the stock actually falling that low. Totally fine to get assigned at those levels. And the potential ROI there at the 26, I'd collect 100 bucks per contract, which is a potential 4.1% ROI. And that's good in my opinion, but obviously results vary. But if I did get assigned at that price, okay, from all-time highs, all right, I'll show you from all-time highs getting assigned at 26, okay, the stock would be have to fall 14%. So, I'd get a 14% discount there on the stock, and I'm totally fine with that. Okay, very fine with that. Um, so that's going to be the last play that I'm looking at.
Um, but yeah, those are going to be the stocks. If you did enjoy this quick update, please give it a thumbs up and I'll see you in the next one. Take care.