Transcription
Hey everyone, hope you're having a good day. My name's Andy. My channel's finding value. Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it, uh, together. It's generally related to three different topics: wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics. So, let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.
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Brandon says, "I just don't think I'm bullish enough on copper. COPX SPY ratio chart is looking tasty as it bases out and ready to break higher." We can obviously take a look at what he is looking at and that's what he's looking at there. He's got a resistance area basically that we're trying to break out of. You get a downtrend, a base. This looks like a double bottom. And then a lot of the times you get a consolidation that happens either above it or below it. This one happens to be below it. And it looks like it wants to break higher out of that consolidation. So that looks pretty good. And remember this is a ratio chart. A ratio chart that does not mean that you are buying the absolute bottom of this particular, you know, ETF companies. So just wanted to, you know, let you guys know that it is breaking out. It's just starting to outperform the S&P 500 and this is a big bottoming pattern. Bottoming pattern, higher, and then we are breaking higher again.
You know, when this breaks out during commodity bull markets. You know what else breaks out during commodity bull markets? Platinum starts to outperform gold. And I don't know if you guys have been watching platinum here recently. So this is the platinum to gold chart. Uh, the last commodity bull market was here. So this was, uh, 1996, '97 as it broke out and then we started getting moving here, uh, and it stayed elevated for the entire commodity bull market. This was, uh, 2001 to 2008. It stayed elevated. So the first move was platinum outperforming gold. And what are we seeing today? I've got this arrow down here. So, we squeezed up into that corner and if you look, we are breaking out of the platinum to gold ratio right now. We are just starting to break out. What does that mean? Why is that a big deal? Well, platinum outperforms in inflationary environments. Gold outperforms in low inflation or it acts as a safe haven asset. So the market condition from here to here is done. And that market condition when you go from '08 to 2025 of where we are today and breaking out, that is when the S&P 500 outperforms things like platinum. So 2008 would have been the absolute bottom because that was the top of the platinum to gold ratio and then this would be the peak in 2024, 2025. So this was your outperformance. This is now starting to underperform platinum. And as we see these ratios move against each other, what that is signaling is a hard asset outperformance area. And we've already started, we're just starting this outperformance. So the cycle when you look at platinum versus S&P or platinum versus gold, it's just starting. We're, we're just getting moving. And then we looked at copper versus the S&P 500. This is starting to potentially break out here any second. All of the commodity space is about to start to break out and outperform financial assets. Emerging markets is also going to do it because it's driven by dollar weakness. We also see currency exchange rates that are favorable to show you as an example, CAD USD, Canadian dollar. This was the big bull market and then now we are starting to break out.
Why am I going over this? Because I'm about to talk about oil and what I'm doing is I'm laying the foundational work of what you should be looking at to determine if oil is a good purchase or not. We're going to continue lower.
Says, "One moment where you caught the bottom of the platinum market in March of 2025 and can tell future generations about it." He's talking about the the bottom now. I caught the bottom of 2020 when platinum went way below the the highest producers and below the mid-cost producers. I bought the living crap out of it here. Now, it wasn't as easy as you think because when you had to get in there, as this was falling, I had to buy it when it was falling. Why? Because I knew that they were going to change the damn premiums on it. So, I had to get in there, buy a whole bunch as it was falling. Then they started to restrict people. And this is where the market, I don't understand this market. It doesn't make sense to me. How is it possible that the price of an of an item sells off and then they restrict you from buying it? Doesn't that mean that we should have plentiful amounts of whatever it is if the price is going down? So then they jack the premiums up. They limited how much you could buy. They did all of that stuff right when I was trying to buy as much as I could. Silver was the same way. Silver was the same freaking way. They they jacked the premium way up when silver went to like $9 or $10 an ounce on the futures pricing and then the premium, they put a huge premium on top of it. So you couldn't get it anywhere near some of these prices and then there's the platinum breakout. It looks so obvious looking backwards after, you know, the price is up here. How do you buy it when you don't know that this is coming yet and you buy it down here? How do you know? You don't know when it will go. You just know that it's of good value and it's below the cost curve. I'll get to that soon with oil.
Luca says, "We're reaching a point where oil versus everything is near historic lows. Oil versus gold, historic low. Oil versus the S&P 500, historic low. Oil versus the money supply, historic low. Oil versus my patience, historic low. The question is, how much lower can it go before it rips higher?" And we are, this is oil adjusted for the money supply, putting in a shoulder, a head, and a shoulder still. Now, a lot of people are going to say, well, Andy, the price is going down. It's going down. Oh my god, the price is going down. Where, where's the bottom? Where's the exact bottom on oil? Well, I don't know for sure. I can tell you it's of good value. Historically, this is the cheapest it's ever been against other assets. That doesn't mean that it can't go a little bit lower. What it means is that the opportunity is here. Warren Buffett would say, "Buy when others are fearful." Well, here's your chance to pony up and get the cojones to get some shares over the next, let's say, three to six months. If it stays down for that long, I'm going to be buying. I'm not going to be, I'm not going to be, uh, you know, once you figure out these markets and what they do and how they kind of operate, you don't get scared by market downturns because you understand that that's part of the game. It's part of what you're playing. The opportunity is this: these things, oil versus gold, oil versus SP, oil versus, it's all cheap. Historically cheap. The opportunity is that now. If the price continues to go lower, that does not negate anything that is up here. It doesn't make it a false statement. It just makes it even better.
So going in, it says, "The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you." Instructing means that the price goes down, therefore I'm scared, I sell. It's there to serve. The market is there to serve you, not instruct you. Serving you means that you buy these historic low opportunities. And then you've got the guts, the cojones, and the patience to buy it down here when it's low and ride it higher. That's called investing. Not having the stock market or the prices instruct you on what to do. That's not what you want to do. The opportunity is that it's cheap and that's all you can really control. You can control when you buy it and when you buy it, you want it to be cheap, but you can't control if the price goes up or down. You can look at the fundamentals. You can look at the supply demand characteristics, but that doesn't necessarily tell you with any sort of like, it doesn't tell you with 100% certainty that it has to go higher. You'll never get that certainty. You can't apply logic when emotions are involved. The setup is here and it will have a window of opportunity for however long. That window of opportunity will close and it will be gone. Just like platinum, the window of opportunity was here. It was open for a period of time and then it closes as it goes up. And that's how market cycles work. The period was also in palladium and then it goes up and it closes the window. Now, you're going to have to look at opportunities in the market, compare opportunities, and see which ones are better. Should I go with palladium or platinum? And then you have to decipher between which one's better than the other and make a decision. Or you would do a little overweight one and underweight the other, uh, when it's down low. It's not one thing or the other.
Now crude oil does get impacted by a slowdown in the market. Copper isn't really flying lower here. So, it's not a slowdown necessarily with copper ripping lower. Interest rates are still remaining quite resilient. They're not just flying lower. They're getting wicks at the bottom, which means their yields are, there's some pressure holding yields up. And the 10-year yield's not necessarily crashing, at least not yet. And then we'll have to monitor this. And even if it does crash and even if we do get a recession, most recessions are just temporary. Ride through it. We don't have to try to predict recessions, which most people do not predict to be correct. Platinum doesn't do well under recessionary moves. Generally, what it, what it does well under is inflation. Are we getting mixed signals here? I definitely think we are. Copper is remaining resilient. Platinum is going higher. It's outperforming gold. That's the beginning stages of when oil generally does very well. So what's going on? How come the prices are going down? Well, we've had some projects come on in around the world and a lot of the times you can experience a wash out sale before moving higher. I call it the slingshot. Much like this slingshot there. Do you get towards the apex corner? It slingshots out and then rips to the upside. Are we going to do something similar to that? I, yeah, probably. That could very well be the case. Now, does anyone know that with certainty? No. No one knows what exactly it's going to do and what it will look like. We don't know how much fear gets injected into the market here. Could this be a double bottom and it starts to move higher? It could at any time. Very well could. We could go down for four, five, six months and cycle back around doing a big slingshot kind of like this thing going on there. Maybe there's market fear. No one knows that. That's what makes it difficult.
If I were to look at this long term, which I always do, that's my preferred method of looking at investing is long-term charts. We still have not disrupted. I still think that we are in a wave two pullback on this and that this move will be exactly the same. Even if this were to drop down and go up, it doesn't matter. We're still in that move. We're in a bull market. How do I know that? Well, go look at copper. Go look at platinum. Go look at all the ratios. Go look at COPX to the S&P 500. Putting in that basing pattern. Look at the valuations. Add up all of the information. And then think in the back of your head. If oil is cheap to everything, that's the opportunity. The market isn't here to instruct you based off of price movements. It's there to serve you. Serving you means that you can buy at lows if you've got the conviction and the wherewithal where we're at in the cycle. This is an opportunity, not something to be scared of in my opinion, uh, with oil. But could that mean I look wrong for a period of time, a couple months, six months? I could. Yeah, very well could. But that doesn't change the situation of oil being cheap and of the equities being a heck of a value for some of the equities.
Just in, Treasury Secretary Scott Bent just revealed terrifying news for Democrats. Not that I care that it's terrifying news for Democrats. It's what he's talking about that I'm focusing on. Americans will likely be getting $1,000 to $2,000 in tax refunds early 2026 before the midterms. $100 billion to $150 billion refunds in quarter 1 go directly to Americans' pockets. Our estimate is $1,000 to $2,000 per household depending on the number of workers. The economy is going to start lifting off in quarter 1 and quarter two. This is huge. You know what happened last time that they did stimulus? Oil prices went way up. Do you think they're in there pushing oil prices down before this comes? I don't know. Maybe to absorb some of this money as they send it out or or refund during whatever it is. Could be, could be. I think this is a heck of an opportunity in oil. I really do. I think that this is a wave 1, wave two pullback that we haven't gotten out of yet for wave two and that if, if this does come, this is going to be stimulative, uh, for the economy.
It says, "What to expect for uranium price in 2026? Major bank and analyst forecast for 2026 are very optimistic, reflecting expected market deficits. Bank of America up to $135 a pound. Citibank $100 a pound. Other analysts between $95 and $135 a pound range." Do you know how much I put on analyst ratings? Very little. Very little. It doesn't matter what they think. The cycle is turning. We can see it in all of these different sectors. Copper, platinum, silver, gold, fertilizers are bottoming. They all have bottoming patterns. Lithium has bottoming patterns. They all do. Coal prices, iron ore, all of them. So, what makes you think that these analysts are going to nail these things? These projections, they don't. Very rarely do they. What matters, what matters is that we've got the bottoming patterns in all of commodities and commodities move together. So if we have bottoming patterns in all these different ETFs, steel, copper, iron ore, uh, uranium, we'll look at uranium here. This here is a bottoming pattern that has turned higher and we are in the move. Now is not the time to be bearish on commodities. Now is the time to be bullish because we're, we're rounding this bottom and things just take time. What's killing people is that they look at the price movement and it's a short-term price movement and they get scared. That's not what you should be focusing on in my opinion. It's the big long-term, big picture view that I'm looking at right here. And all of them look good on the longer term. Everything oil will follow. Uranium is going to go up. I wouldn't worry about what people are trying to predict.
Charlie says, "The unemployment rate moved up to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September of 2021. Could we get a recession here?" Well, we could. Maybe we're already in it. Maybe that's why oil is slowing down and people are pricing all of this stuff in. Maybe it's just tax loss harvesting. Everybody tries to figure out why our prices moving. It could be a whole bunch of things. You know, think back to yourself. A lot of people, what I see is they get scared and then they sell. Tell me exactly why you sold. I mean, in all honesty, most people, oh, I, I sold because I took a little bit of profit. I sold because, and then they make some excuse up. They sold because they got scared. I mean, that's not logical. Selling because you get scared. Is that kind of what the majority of market participants might be doing? They see the price go up or down, they get scared, and then they sell out. That's your opportunity because they're selling based off nothing. They're just scared. Well, it's based off being scared. It's not, it's nothing in terms of logic.
The silent lithium squeeze has begun. Morgan Stanley Research, China materials 2026 outlook, equity implications. New materials just dropped and the lithium signal is loud. Lithium demand is beating expectations [clears throat] driven by energy storage systems. Production is up 70% year-over-year. Another 50% growth expected in 2026. Lithium carbonate prices in China have already rebounded to 100,000 per ton in R&B. Do I care about this? No, I don't. Why am I reading it? Because people want to be entertained. Do I not entertain you? The lithium prices, the the the equities are bottoming and they're turning higher. That, that's how I know it's good. All of this could be an explanation. Maybe not. Maybe people are positioning away from financial assets into hard assets and lithium is one of the sectors they want exposure to. You know, everyone tries to find out the why. Well, why did this go up? Why did this go down? How come this is doing this? You may not ever understand the reasons of why because really what you're asking is why are other people buying this stock? Well, I don't know what those reasons necessarily are. There could be a million different reasons. One guy has to put his kid through school, so he's selling some stock. Another person's rotating from, uh, overvalued tech into undervalued commodity assets. Another person wrote in an electric vehicle and said, "I think electric vehicles have big growth, so they're buying lithium because they go in the batteries." And there could be a whole bunch of people with a whole bunch of different reasons buying it. So why did it go up? All of those reasons. It's all of them. Because they want exposure to lithium. Does that mean that lithium goes up or down? No. I mean, it, I, is it the fundamentals 100%? No, it's not 100% the fundamentals. Maybe one person's buying it because the bond market's underperforming. He got his butt kicked and now he's trying to make his money back in lithium. That could be the case.
Cycle bottom says, "Bottoming for 2026, less than $35,000 is Bitcoin, 2029 peak of $180K. Cycles are great thing to interpret and harness." He's saying we're in a down cycle right now and that maybe 2029 will be in an up cycle. You know, the the peak of it, perhaps. Perhaps not. Experts' predictions for Bitcoin before the end of 2025: $170,000 for JP Morgan, $180 for VANC, and $200,000 for Standard Charter. They all got it wrong. What are predictions worth? Absolutely nothing. What are your price targets? Doesn't matter. Nobody gets them right. Do price targets matter? No, they don't. Then what matters, Andy? Tell me what matters. What matters is that you buy it when it's cheap because that is what you can control. You can control buying something when it is cheap. You can't control when the necessary top or bottom is in anything. Your protection is buying when things are value, you know, undervalued. It keeps you at the bottom of the cycle. So when you look at these predictions, they don't mean anything. When you look at analyst opinions, they don't mean anything. When you read news, the news is a function of the herd. And the herd is impacted by price movements. So what can you use in the news, Andy? You can't use the news. The news is a waste of time. Value is all that matters and that these technicals can help you get good entries. Does it mean that you're absolutely buying the the bottom of the bottom? No. No one knows that bottom of the bottom. How come no one knows? Because you don't know when other people are going to buy it all at the same time and push the stock price higher. I mean, that's really what you're doing. You're, you're trying to gauge based off of patterns, stock patterns, the psych, the herd of the psych, you know, the psychological imprint of the herd on the chart pattern. You're trying to guess when the bottom will be or when the buyers equal the sellers, roughly speaking. But there could be anything that comes out of left field that pushes prices lower for a period of time. Anything. It could be news that is a short-term impact. It could be 9/11. It could be C19 event. Those things you may know that something could occur, but you don't know the extent in when the fear hits people. You don't know when that will will 100% occur.
Says, "I make no attempt to forecast the general market. My efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities. And you can use technical analysis to help you with your entries. That's what I do." So ratios tell you where the undervalued sectors are. Then you look at the companies. You can see where the undervalued companies are at and use the technicals to try your best to get the best entries. That's all you can do. That's with that is what is within your control. This news, all these news and price predictions. Noise. All this noise. No noise. It's noise. It's so, so much noise.
Here's banks. If you, if you're a stock market bull, I think KBE, which is the banks, is the most important chart in the world. Do you agree? As it's starting to potentially break out. Well, Andy, if it's breaking out, how come oil's breaking down? I don't know the reason why. You could make a whole bunch up. Maybe people are scared. Maybe we get a wash out sale. Maybe we've got a little bit of too much oil in the market at this exact moment. Could be a whole bunch of things. Uh, that is as bullish as it gets for precious metals. No idea where we end up over the short term, but the structure of the risk on metals outperforming gold is telling me that we have more to go. Silver outperforming 103%, platinum is outperforming 87%, palladium's up 68, gold's up 54. And that is dominating the year-to-date performance of basically all these different asset classes. The ones that are underperforming, uh, orange juice, cocoa, rough rice, the VIX, lumber, sugar, natural gas. Those are the lowest ones, the underperformers. And that's all I've got for, uh, today, guys. So, that's what I've got. Give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you'd like. Special is the coupon code. And that's all I've got for today. We've got a Q&A or a platinum midweek update being released. It is released to the website. So, if you guys want to check that out, it's uploaded to the website. And what that is is it's my opinions on what I think are good opportunities in the market, uh, from a charting perspective and the companies that I'm looking at from a value perspective. So if you guys want to hear my opinions each week, check out those midweek updates. They're all uploaded, uh, to the website and you can see that my returns, uh, probably for this year depending on the portfolio account, somewhere between 40 and 100%, depending on the account and how I weighted it in certain sectors and how much money I put in and weighted that. So, it's somewhere between that, uh, amount. I went back and looked at some of my returns, uh, some of the portfolios, they're returning about 35 to 40% per annum for the past five to 10 years. That's what my, uh, returns have been, uh, on an annual basis. And some portfolios do vary. Some are lower and some are higher around that 35ish% area depending on the portfolio and the composition that I made those portfolios. What make, you know, what makes up those holdings? Uh, some of them, they might have lagged a little bit because I've been have big oil exposure and some really outperformed because I've got more precious metals mining exposure in those. Just as an FYI, if you kind of want to know the history and my returns of what I'm roughly getting, uh, that does not mean that every single company went up. I've had some bankruptcy, you know, companies that went bankrupt on me which were pretty much wiped out. I, I was impacted by Russian sanctions back in the time, and that is still my return. You know, I'm still losing positions here and there every once in a while. So, I'm not 100%. Definitely not that. But the ones I do win on, I let them run and I, I run pretty big. I'm a buy hold guy. I'm not a trader. I'm not trading in, you know, short-term. There are tax implications for doing that, which basically makes trading almost impossible to outperform a long-term holder in my opinion. So, I don't, I don't do that.
All right, guys. That's all I've got for today. We'll catch you next time. See you.