Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin as the month of July comes to an end.
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So, this July looks like basically every other midterm year July in recent history for Bitcoin. If you look at monthly returns in July, you can see so far in 2026, up about 10 and a half%. Not bad. 2022 was up almost 20%. 2018, almost up 38%. So, July in midterm years often acts as some relief. Normally, it is the month that provides the relief after you get a pretty big drop going into June, late June, early July.
If you're not familiar, you can pretty clearly see 2022. Bitcoin dropped into June and then found a low and then had sort of this brief counter-trend rally into about mid-August. Did not quite make it to the bear market resistance band before coming back down. In 2018, we had that drop into June. Then we did make it to the bear market resistance band before coming back down. And we were still at that bear market resistance band in like late July.
In 2014, it's a little bit different because in 2014, the low was not in June. It was actually in October. There was a low in June, but it was, it was sort of a higher low. So, it was a lot stronger during that period. But what you'll notice is every time you get a low in June, you get a rally on the other side of it going into July, as you can see, sometimes going into August. And then as you get later into Q3, that's when you start to see that window of weakness come back.
All right. Now, in 2018, which we have talked at length about the similarities between 2026 and 2018, if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and overlay that with 2018, you can see how it more or less lines up. And starting in about a day or two is when Bitcoin started to show that window of weakness again. But again, in 2022, it took a little bit longer, right, before that weakness came back.
So, a lot of people have reached out and they're like, "Well, is Bitcoin going to reach the bear market resistance band? Is it, you know, is is the rally over now that we're basically through July?" The the true answer is that is that no one knows. Like, I can't with a clear authoritarian voice say one way or another whether Bitcoin's going to reach the bear market resistance band and or the 200-day moving average. Okay? I mean, in 2022, we did not reach them after the June low, right? Right? And by the time we reached it, the bear market resistance band was all the way out in November. And we didn't even get back up to the 200-day moving average after the April rejection. We didn't get back to the 200-day moving average until January of the following year.
If you look at 2018, we did get back up there, right? We we made it back up. Well, not even quite. We got to the bear market resistance band in near the end of July and then almost the 200-day moving average by late July, early August. But we never actually touched the 200-day moving average from like, you know, early from like April or so of 2018 all the way until April of the following year. So, it's hard to say for sure whether we'll tag it or not.
But the point is, is if history is any indication, the next window of weakness is going to show up, is going to start sometime in the next two to three weeks. In 2022, it did not really start to show up again until about mid-August. In 2018, it showed up early August. It's it's hard to know exactly the day at which it's going to occur, but I will say this: in 2023, Bitcoin started going down from July and it corresponded with the with the long under the yield curve going up, right? The 10-year yield was heading higher during that time. As you can see right here, the 10-year yield started going up. And you'll note that the 10-year yield is starting to make that move once again. The bond, the bond market is starting to revolt. The Fed's not raising rates. And if this plays out like either 2023 or 2022 or 2018 or 2014, then you'd be looking at a correction coming up in the latter part of Q3.
So, it made sense to say that look, we were going to form a low by late June, early July. We did counter-trend rally in July. Check. Could it extend a little bit into August? It could, but I would guess that we'll see, um, Bitcoin come back down as we get later on, uh, into the month of August and and notably September.
What's remarkable is when you look at the monthly returns of Bitcoin in midterm years, July is often green, but look at 2022. July was green, and then August, September red. 2018, July was green, August, September red. Even in 2014, when July was red, August and September were still red. So, I'm not here to say that it you can't see it go up. Even in 2022, Bitcoin finished the month negative 15%, but it started the month strong. So, this is one of those things where it it's hard to know the exact day, but we are we're we're readily approaching, I think, the next window of weakness for Bitcoin. It usually starts to present itself in the months of August and September of midterm years. So, we'll see if that comes to pass.
Um, and, you know, if this just plays out like every other prior bear market, then we'd be looking at a low here in in just a few months. If you go to the ROI from the low chart, which we've talked about, you know, a number of times on this channel, and you go out low to low, you can see that, you know, just a few more months and we'll be kind of at that same length of of prior bear markets. I would encourage people, not financial advice, but normally a DCA strategy is going to work best rather than trying to time the exact bottom. But this is playing out in a very familiar fashion as prior bear markets have. And so I'm hoping that by around November or so, we'll be either at a market cycle bottom already or it'll be relatively close to being in.
So, if you want to come join the discussions about that, check out the first ITC conference taking place this November in Miami. Get your tickets down in the description below or the pinned comment. Uh, the prices are going to go up here in just a few weeks. So, thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe and I'll see you next time. Bye.