Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Tuesday, November 4, 2025, in front of a very red crypto map that stings the eyes, and not just the eyes, it stings, but hey, we have no choice, we have to put on some cream while it passes. So, it's not just the crypto market that's correcting. The stock market is also correcting, with the big tech stocks being well in the red today. Everyone is eating the big red pie, let's say strawberry, because at least it's nice, you see. Well, the ETFs are no longer really on our side. Still selling, $186 million in Bitcoin sales, $135 million in Ethereum sales. So, you see, the ETFs are no longer eating $500 million and billions, well, that calms everyone down a bit. The market is also in extreme fear. Now, the good news is extreme fear. That's where we can start to say, well, the bottom isn't very far, but be careful, a bottom takes shape, it takes time. It can take a week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks to form a bottom. It's not like, okay, today it's here, the bottom. No, it doesn't work like that. It takes time, and we'll see what the structure tells us. So, for now, on the altcoins, since yesterday, it was a very ugly candle yesterday. Why? Because it's a candle that broke the 200-day moving average, which is the average price of altcoins at 731 billion. The 200-day moving average, which had held many, many times since the beginning of October, and unfortunately, boom. Off it goes, the elevator, it's going down. This red candle from yesterday also broke the Tenkan, the Kijun, the lower Bollinger band, and the lower Bollinger band, it doesn't want to. Why? Because, you see, the lower band is starting to widen. You know the tune, it's the same since ancient times, since the stock market has existed, at least 1782 BC. Well, and so, you see, it's the band that widens downwards, the candles, bam, bam, bam, sliding on it. Yes, it's ugly. Well, so, can this be the start of a diabolical little descent? It's still possible. Where could it go? Remember this famous October 10th when we had a nuclear wick, your darling Foufou told you, be careful, wicks are very often retested. It's never 100% sure, but big wicks being retested is rare. So, what does the market do? Well, it's going to say hello to the wick. There are chances, especially since it's not very far, you see. All it takes is a small -12% -13%. So, you shouldn't be surprised at all if it goes there. Basically, the structure is showing us the C wave of the death cross, unfortunately, with the impulse, the A wave of the death cross, all of this is a kind of ugly B, and a C, you see, a B that contracts a bit, we don't care, well. And so you have a C, you see, on Bitcoin, you'll see it better. So, yes, for now, it's not pretty. Can it continue to go down? Yes. So, how to know if it's going down? If you really want to be sure, or rather, have a high probability, if it draws a small bullish channel, for now, it's happening. Boom, the first to short in there. You see, for impulse, correction, for boom, continuation. So, for now, unfortunately, it's not very, very pretty. Why do I say it's not very, very pretty? You'll see with Bitcoin. So, the bears, you see, they are there. They are almost at their peak. We are almost in oversold territory. The last time altcoins touched oversold territory was in June 2025. And before June 2025, it was in April 2025. You see, where the bottom was created. Remember, Trump is coming. Hello little darlings. You're going to get your teeth kicked in. 5 months of correction from December to April. In April, you see, we fiddled a lot here in the oversold zone, we oversold ourselves. Basically, it's people capitulating. Oversold is the opposite of overbought, it's the opposite of FOMO. It's like, oh my god, I'm selling everything, I'm scared, I'm leaving, you see. And it's in these moments when everyone is scared and everyone says it's over, we're all going to die. Yeah, we're all going to McDonald's. That's when you have to say, "Ah, come on, I'm doing my shopping." Now, be careful, I'm talking about Bitcoin. That's why I have this magnificent, custom-made Bitcoin suit. When Bitcoin rewards you, don't go crazy, I'm putting on my bow tie, don't go crazy with bad altcoins. So, when I say things, it's about Bitcoin. Bitcoin rewards you. When you're patient, Bitcoin rewards you. Altcoins, well, most of them, you don't really know, you see. Well, so, you see here, altcoins have touched the zone close to oversold several times, and that's where bottoms are created. So, I'm not telling you that yes, right now, the bottom is here. But if we start to go into this zone, you don't even have to enter here, well, it can be created in there. There. Well, and so, basically, if you have your favorite altcoin, well, start a little DCA or continue your little DCA, it's good. But you have to keep some ammo, because it can continue to go down. Be careful, this wick here, it can very well, boom, boom, boom, boom, retest the wick to finally make a kind of A, a kind of B, a kind of C before going back up. Now, Bitcoin, the structure is cleaner. We see it directly. Well, so, the famous running flat. Flat, unfortunately. And yes, that's a shame, and it's ugly, but hey, that's the structure. So, remember, for a good week, 10 days, there were two scenarios. Scenario number one, where it's the death cross. And so, what scenario is it? It's this, but you have wave A, you have wave B, and boom, you have wave C. And once wave C of the death cross is finished, it's the upward trend. Okay? Because when you validate a regular, well, the next step is that it pushes, that's how it is. And so, scenario number one, where C can go to where? Well, C can go, for example, to the gap, it has the right to. Now, well, you can draw little Fibos too to get an idea. It can go, you see, to 95,000, why not 82,000, between 95,000 and 82,000. You see, the Fibos say that. The reload zone says between 85,000 and 94,000, you see. And the CME gap says around 92,000. So, you see, you take several indicators, you intersect them all, and that gives you a small zone. So, basically, the zone is around 92,000, you see, more or less. After that, we don't have a V, we can't know. I don't want to tell you, yes, don't worry, at 83,862 it's over. Well, no, that doesn't exist. Well, so, for now, unfortunately, so this is scenario number one, and scenario number two, well, what was it? Remember, it was a running flat that unfortunately invalidated the running flat scenario, you see. It was that since Bitcoin broke the top here of the wave, well, it could do a small A, small B, small C, not break the low, and go back up. It had to first make a bullish wave, and then the death cross, well, it arrived with nuclear candles, you see. So, it's tough. There's nothing. There was perhaps a beginning of exhaustion, but not enough, at most. If it had started to show significant exhaustion like that, a bit higher, I might have tried, you see. But here, it arrives with nuclear candles, it's tough, you see. You, you, there's more chance of breaking, unfortunately. So, we're crossing out the running flat, small A, small B, small C, to have a rise first and then go down. Here, it seems to be directly the death cross, unfortunately, because it broke the low here. And so, how far can this C go? So, you see, there's a wick here that we haven't tested for a very, very long time. It's around June 22-23 at 98,457. So, going to 98,000, well, that wouldn't be at all unreasonable, you see, because there are quite a few stop losses that must be hidden there, because all the people who bought longs on all the rises, well, a small stop loss behind the last wick, because often, you see, traders, so the market that wants to catch that, especially given the aggressive momentum. Well, so, if we see a bullish channel forming like this, you'll understand that it will be the diabolical descent. Now, let's also pay attention to the gap at 91,970. This famous gap, we've been talking about it for a while, when was it created? A long time ago, this gap. Well, so, will Bitcoin want to go there? Can it do here like this, an A, a B, a C that falls on the gap? That would rather be an A, and the C that falls like this. That would be a big C, though. I'd have a bit of trouble, you see. Basically, I think if Bitcoin really starts to fall, fall, fall like this, we can go for a new structure, you see. Basically, well, we're crossing out the running flat. Okay. So, now, there's the scenario that it's the death cross. But that can be broken down into two structures. The first one, if it falls directly like this, it means that all of this will be a big A, and then we'll have a big B, and then a big C. So, we're off for a correction that can last many months. Many, okay. Well, like we had this year for 5 months, last year for 8 months, you see, 9 months. Well, that's the idea. Now, there's always this famous regular flat, small A, small B, small C. So, if it doesn't go very far, if it just goes below 98,000, it has the right to explode too, you see. So, basically, we're on the death cross because we broke that, but it breaks down into two scenarios. The catastrophic scenario, where it really sinks, sinks, sinks. And that's not the death cross of an ABC. You see, if it sinks to hell like that, you can feel that it's not just a small regular flat. It means that you're starting a new big structure where this is a big A. But if, on the other hand, it just goes there, it exhausts a bit, like around 98,000 or this wick, you can say we might have a scenario like this, A, B, C, and boom, and it goes back to a new all-time high. So, will we be on a regular flat or on a much bigger, atrocious structure? We'll see. For now, we'll see the impulse of this. If it sinks, sinks, sinks like this, well, yes, you understand that it will be ugly. Basically, it would mean that it's correcting this entire rise. I'll talk about it this weekend on the long-term scenario because if you want, well, I'm crossing out the running flat. So, before, remember, there was scenario 1 of the death cross and scenario 2 which was the running flat. That's what we were seeing, what I was showing you every day. Scenario 2 of the running flat invalidated, only scenario 1 of the death cross remains. So, it's the death cross. I'm sorry, I'm repeating myself because maybe some people are confused, as I say, many structures can confuse people. Well, so, here's the first scenario. The C wave doesn't go very low, it can just break 98,000 and then it takes off and it's good. Just a small regular flat, small a, small b, small everything, then it takes off. Second scenario, as I said, it sinks, sinks, sinks, this is a new wave, and so two solutions. New wave where to correct this, because this is the big structure, this big A, all of this is the B that has exhausted itself, the famous wave C, but of the running flat, you see, of the weekly running flat. Well, we see it every weekend. And here, well, if it's this C, it will go below 92,000, it will take off again, it's still very good too, whether it's that or after this wave, well, it has the right to do a small regular flat too if it wants before taking off, well, but in any case, if it starts to fall, fall, fall, it means it's correcting the big structure, that's positive. It always takes off again. So, basically, you just have to tighten your seatbelts. If we're lucky, a small regular flat and it takes off again. If we're not lucky, it's the big wave here, and it will take off again. After that, it doesn't have to take off directly, it can take off by doing a small regular flat too. But we'll see about that. Well, so, that's it. Well, I hope, I'm sorry for repeating myself. I hope you're not confused, but that's the idea. So, basically, yes, it's going to sting, a little or a lot. There. If it's the small regular flat or rather the big C of the weekly structure. Well, after, is this small regular flat more likely to happen than the big C? Well, on one hand, there's something I don't like, it's breaking the Bollinger band here at 104,265. So, we could very well have the Bollinger band widening and bam, bam, bam, the sliding effect towards 92,000. So, you see, breaking the lower band is not good. It's not good. On the other hand, today is the candle that breaks. We need another candle to confirm. If we have a second candle here or there, it's good, it's not good. It means there will be confirmation of the toboggan effect. Pam, pam. You always need two candles. Okay. Well, a candle that breaks is good. But if tomorrow it makes a green candle, well, it's not, it's not starting for the toboggan effect. But if tomorrow it makes a red candle, yes, it's starting for the toboggan effect. It will be very ugly. So, here, there's this that is rather ugly, which would be more in favor of the big weekly structure. But when you look at the liquidations on Bitcoin here, well, there's not much left. Does it really want to go to the gap at 92,000? There's nothing. There aren't even billions. Whereas to the north, there are 10 billion dollars if it goes to, say, 116,000. So, wouldn't it rather do this small regular flat? Push for a new all-time high, and then it can fall again to validate the big running flat. So, basically, I'll finish on this, okay? So, if I make a bullish scenario, well, I'll simply tell you that well, this is the small regular flat. Since there's not much liquidity left here, it will explode, make a new record to validate this regular flat to eat all the shorts. And then later it validates, this is the big B, it validates the big C of this big A. There. This is the biggest structure, okay, it's the biggest. It's the weekly, there's nothing above. Okay, it's the biggest. Well, remember, I've been talking about it for months, this big weekly C that would go to 92,000. I told you, it can start at 125,000, at 130,000, 135,000, even at 150,000 it can happen. Bitcoin can go to 150,000 and then do this big C to go to the gap. Okay? So, bullish scenario, it validates this small regular flat here, it explodes, and later it does the big C, and all of this remains the big B. This is the bullish scenario. Okay. Bearish scenario, where no, it directly does the big C of this structure. There. Simply, something like this, the big A, all of this is the B, it does the big C, and here, it will really sting because it can go to 92,000, it can go to 85,000, it can even go to 80,000 if it wants. It will be a cleaning like Mr. Clean, you see. That's it, it will be ugly. Well, so, now that we see there's not much liquidity to the south, I'm wondering if it really wants to do the big C towards 92,000? Well, we'll see. On one hand, there's not much liquidity, on the other hand, if the American stock market is still in shutdown mode, if they don't lower rates in December, you see. Well, if there's bad news, well, yes, it can still fall. There. Well, excuse me, I spent a lot of time on Bitcoin. For the others, it's the same, I'll speed up a bit. So, Ethereum, the next big support here is the 200-day moving average at 3374. If it starts to give way, well, it's death, heading towards 2253. Basically, if Bitcoin goes to its gap at 92,000, Ethereum will go to its gap at 2853. Okay. Well, the advantage is that Ethereum is soon in overbought territory. The last time, it was in September. After that, the last time, you see, it was in June 2025, and then it was in April 2025. It doesn't go into overbought territory very often. And remember, if you've been following your Foufou for a long time, what does your darling Foufou tell you? Always, because it's technical analysis, I'm not inventing it. Overbought zones are oversold zones, I think I said overbought. Well, these overbought zones are where investors take profits. Oversold zones are where investors buy, you see. So, people buy here, the smart money, and sell here. They buy again not far from here, they sell here, they buy again here. There. It's not there, but it's okay. They will buy again when it's in there. They will sell later when it's there. That's how it works. It's as simple as that. So, when Ethereum was at 4950 in full overbought territory, your darling Foufou told you, be careful, overbought zone, bearish divergence, and many were not happy. I don't care if you're happy or not. You have to think like a robot, not like a human in "Yeah, I'm so happy, it's great." Oh no, I'm not happy, I'm so sad. No, you have to remove emotions in finance. Well, anyway, but that's complicated. It took me years to learn to turn off the emotion button. Very complicated. I was the first to do anything stupid. I was young too. Okay. Well, so, I wasn't born with a beard and financial expertise. Ethereum, well, same, not very, very pretty. And Ethereum, there's a high probability of going below 3355 here. If all goes well, it will just test and make, why not, a kind of small regular flat. Well, it has the right to, it's a bit ugly. So, it can just do this small regular flat and then explode to a new all-time high, that's scenario number one. Now, I'll zoom in for you. You see, other altcoins will be the same. I'm just doing it for Ethereum. So, Ethereum is the same, it's exactly the same thing. Here it's wave A, all of this is wave B, or here it starts the C of the death cross, and it will go to its gap at 2853. And why not the reload zone? The long-term reload zone. I'll also do the analysis this weekend. The long-term reload zone for Ethereum is here. Well, for the big move, it's here, for the big wave C. You see, that's roughly the idea. So, basically, two solutions, bullish scenario. Boom, like Bitcoin, we validate this small regular flat and boom, we explode, and we are still in the big wave B, and we continue to push. Is that possible? Yes, it's possible because there's not much to the south and to the north, it's full of liquidity. That's scenario number one, bullish, okay, where we just do this small regular flat. Not bullish scenario, and here it's the big A. The big B is finished here. And here it's off for the C of the death cross, where the reload zone will be between approximately $2200 and $2800. That doesn't mean it will stop there. It even has the right to go to its gap at 1730 before taking off again. The C says it will just not break 1400, you see. But so, here it's the ugly scenario. Be careful, I'm not saying it's the big death cross that's starting, I'm saying there are two solutions. I don't know if it's the small regular flat that pushes again after a few more days of correction, you see, and boom, and we'll eat all of that, and we'll have a big, beautiful rise, and then it's the death cross. Or else it's directly the big C of the big, big structure. Well, there. So, well, after that, it's hard to say. I'm not a fortune teller, I can't tell you, yes, it's the big, big wave C of the weekly structure correction that will happen, but when I see a lot of liquidity to the north and little to the south, I wonder if we're really going to do the big wave C, you see. Well, you'll tell me what you think. Solana, well, Solana, of course, it's all like Ethereum, it's the same thing. So, Solana, which broke its 200-day moving average, sorry, its 100-day moving average and its lower Bollinger band, broke with confirmation, it's not good. So, it can very well trigger a toboggan effect and boom, boom, boom, towards $121. Well, it's not far from the oversold zone. The last time it was well in the oversold zone was in February 2025, you see. So, oversold zones are very good zones to buy. It's almost there. As usual, investors, the smart money, buy in the oversold zones where everyone is scared, everyone sells, and sell in the overbought zones. You see, it's that simple. These are profit-taking zones. These are zones for good buying, I've been telling you this for years. Well, anyway, so like Ethereum, first scenario, it validates the small regular flat and boom, and we all explode upwards to eat a bit of all this liquidity that is waiting to the north. Scenario number two, well, it's the big death cross. That's all there is to it. The problem with Solana, and like all altcoins that haven't broken their previous highs, it means here you have the big A, here you have the big B. If it's indeed the C of the giant weekly structure, then Solana will unfortunately go below 95,000. Yes, that hurts to hear. I'm not saying that the weekly C is starting now, okay? I didn't say it's this scenario. I'm saying there are two. The first is just the regular flat and boom, it explodes, that would still be possible, and later we do the nuclear wave C directly. Well, so, watch closely, it will happen in the next few days, I think. So, after that, don't lose sight that it might not be the big weekly for those who are afraid it will fall. Regarding XRP, same thing. Yes, well, it's doing rather well. Still above its lower Bollinger band. It's doing well, you see. Well, the bears are there, but the momentum isn't that big for it. Well, its running flat is still valid. Since it didn't break the low here, well, XRP can explode, validate this small running flat, small A, small B, small C, and go to a new high. After that, if it starts to break here at 219 and its gap at 213, well, then the bigger correction will resume. It will be the same scenario as Ethereum and Solana, you see, the same thing, even [ __ ]. Well, knowing that it also closed the gaps, liquidity. But there, I'm pressing the cross. Well, I have it in my hand. I wanted to press the tab. I'm pressing the cross of the tab. That never happens to me. Well, okay, so there's liquidity, it's the same, it's full of liquidity to the north. There's not much to the south. So, there. So, you have to tighten your seatbelts and see if we'll have the validation of the regular flat here for a new rise, a new record on Bitcoin, and then it's the C of the weekly movement, or directly the C of the weekly movement. Well, each day will bring new data, simply. Well, regarding the stock market, to finish, not very, very pretty for now on the big tech stocks. Well, it's a bit confusing when I want to say this map of macroeconomic figures that are supposed to come out, because from morning to night it changes. Yesterday, remember the video last night, I told you, wait, but these figures weren't there yesterday morning, you see? And here, I'm telling you the same this morning, I sent you this map, there were figures that were supposed to come out, well, unfortunately, they didn't, but that's okay. So, knowing that, in fact, there's Herbert Robert Alfred at home on technical unemployment, well, they release the figures they want. Well, so, tomorrow we'll have the ISM Services, a very important sector, services are 3/4 of the US GDP. If it comes out below 50, it will smell of recession, contraction, call it what you want. And then on Friday, we'll also have the University of Michigan survey, but we don't really care about consumers, they'll say if they are rather stressed, bullish, not bullish. Knowing that, like yesterday, the ISM PMI came out lower than expected, with a stronger contraction than expected, it slightly increases the probability of interest rate cuts for December, but just a little. But well, Powell did say, for December, don't expect a rate cut for now, he's coming back, and the macroeconomic figures show that employment is not falling at all, and inflation is stagnating. Well, so, for now, well, it's not good, and you'll tell me, but Fouf, the S&P 500 made a green candle. That's a bit tricky, isn't it? It's poorly done, actually, you see. Well, why? Well, because it closed here yesterday, the S&P 500, and now it's here. So, you see that it's lower. And so, if you look, in fact, to really keep the performance, you have to look when you put it on the right on TradingView, when you put it side by side, if you want. So, here, the S&P 500 is -1.30, sorry, -0.10, the Nasdaq -1.30. So, we clearly have the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in a nice red. In fact, everyone is in the red, except Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, which is taking a hit, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, gold. We also have the bond market, the US 10-year, US 20-year, US 30-year. Everyone is in the red, the bear, the gas. There. So, everyone is taking a hit, everyone. Except that we're taking more of a hit, that's the little problem, you see. Well, so, for now, it's not great at all. Gas is exploding completely upwards, that's not very good. Well, regarding crypto stocks, well, same, everyone is taking a hit, Coinbase is taking a hit, MicroStrategy is taking a hit, Marathon is taking a hit, Riot, it's a false green because it's lower compared to yesterday. So, no, there. So, everyone is eating the red cake, the bond market in yields, everything that falls, you see, the 10-year yield falls, the 20-year falls, and the 30-year falls. Now, that's rather good news. It simply means that there are few Treasury purchases. So, that's rather not too bad. Basically, people are selling stocks, they're also selling metals, and they're going to the bond market, and they're also going to the dollar, simply. On the other hand, the dollar, which will hit its 200-day moving average soon, around 100 pips, will it be rejected? Well, that would be good news. If the dollar is rejected without any respect by its 200-day moving average. Ah, so, basically, if you have to make a little parenthesis, a parenthesis with cryptos, I'd say here the dollar is below its 200-day moving average, you see, it will go there tomorrow, the day after tomorrow. So, first bullish scenario, the dollar touches its 200-day moving average, it falls. And what does that mean? Well, that Bitcoin validates the regular flat and boom, it explodes. There, simply. That's the bullish scenario. Now, if the dollar breaks its 200-day moving average and to the moon, what does Bitcoin do? It's off, everything goes down, the big weekly wave. There. Well, well, for now, it's not great. You have to bet that it's either the small regular flat validated to push up, and we keep the big weekly C for later. If it's the big weekly C, it's going to sting because it's heading, very probably, very, very probably, at least to the gap at 92,000, you see. Well, you'll tell me what you think. Sending kisses. Courage, and see you tomorrow. Bye bye.