Transcription
We are entering the most important week of the year 2025, the week of interest rate cuts in the United States. That's what we're talking about today. We will potentially discuss what could happen to avoid a sell-off on the news. We will also analyze Bitcoin and Ethereum, and we will talk about the American indices. We will try to cover all of this today.
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So, to come back to BTC, and obviously this week the FOMC is this Wednesday, September 17th. The Fed will probably lower interest rates. We see it here, the forecast is at 4.25%. Currently, interest rates are at 4.50%. So the market is pricing in a cut, which is already the case. In my opinion, it's already priced in. I even think we've already priced in at least two cuts this year, three cuts. We'll see if it's really fully priced in.
And what would cause us to be truly in an environment that is not a sell-off on the news, meaning the market is good, and it's pricing in the fact that rates would be cut, that the pivot would be in September, etc., and then finally we start to retrace because it's good, the Fed will cut rates but the market has already priced it in in previous months. This would be a completely different approach from Powell. There are rumors that the Fed might be ready to favor slightly higher inflation to try to re-energize the labor market and re-stimulate the economy. And so if that happens, if for example on the day of the speech Powell says that, well, for example, the 2% inflation target becomes 3% inflation instead of 2%, then I can assure you that the markets have not priced this in. This, for example, is information that is not at all priced in because if the Fed starts to aim for 3%, it would be exceptional. It would literally allow, well, if the Fed projects 3% inflation to be maintained, it would allow it to lower rates much more quickly and much more aggressively than we think. And the market has not priced this in at all, for example. So these are things that can be said, that can be extremely important to avoid a sell-off on the news, to bring us new information because if we prioritize the labor market over inflation, it means we are ready to devalue the currency, to kill the purchasing power of the people while trying to keep the economy afloat. And so this would be bullish for the markets, it would not be bullish for citizens obviously, but it would be bullish for the markets because inflation means assets that will simply increase in value and cash that will devalue. And so investors in an inflationary environment do not leave their money in cash. They invest it as much as possible to try to counter this devaluation. Inflation also generally means economic growth potentially, and so on, especially if rates are lowered. So all of this would allow the market to continue to rise.
If Powell tells us we are lowering rates, we are making a small effort, but we are still monitoring inflation, the objective remains at 2%, it is not met, and if necessary, the Fed will not lower rates further, etc. Well, then we enter an environment where it is already priced in, in fact, and therefore we find ourselves on the other side with a labor market that is starting to slow down and which will become something to necessarily observe, a data to observe. Also inflation, inflation continues to persist. For example, this week, we have the figures in the UK. Ah, no, it's not this week, it's fine. Anyway, we have the figures in the UK which, perhaps I removed it here, GBP, no, I left it, it was perhaps last week, I don't know anymore. If you look closely, for example in the United Kingdom, inflation is already starting to rise. And so this proves that it is problematic if inflation is already starting to rise in some countries that have lowered their rates too quickly, this is what could happen in the United States, inflation rising. So this could make it difficult to lower interest rates. United Kingdom here, if you look, well, they were the most aggressive in lowering rates. They started before everyone else, even before the ECB, I believe they are starting to enter a recession. So they tried to re-stimulate directly. Once they reached 2%, they cut and they lowered their rates. But we see that inflation is already starting to rise there, and so we will see how it unfolds there, precisely because it could happen in the same way in the United States.
And so on Bitcoin here, we had stop hunts this weekend, meaning we came to take the lows of Saturday and Sunday. We have a very nice reaction. We have a breaker block here that is forming. In my opinion, the price will come back to work this FVG in the day that will form. But now, it can be an FVG that can act as support to take us higher, firstly to go for last week's high, which is 116594, but especially the next point of interest, 117397. And I remind you that we are still in this weekly fair value gap that we need to try to overcome. That's why last week's high is important, because if we surpass it, we will fill the entire fair value gap, and we will have to see if we perform a reversal or not. If we don't perform a reversal, quite simply, Bitcoin will break its weekly fair value gap, I already talked about it yesterday, it will go for the next point of interest, 11755. And then theoretically for me, the other objectives if we pass the weekly fair value gap, it's to quickly deal with this big displacement, so all these bearish fair value gaps here. So from 119300 up to, it can go up to 123300, even obviously exceed the ATH. We are in a FOMC week, big news. We can trigger big zones. We already saw yesterday, I showed you all this, the real-time liquidations at Hyper Liquide where a lot of people were liquidated from 12800. I don't know if we'll get there, but with a bit of euphoria, a bit of push, and especially FOMC week, we'll try to bring the price where it hurts. These can be objectives to aim for because when we look at derivatives, fundings, we still see that they are below 0.01%. So it's rather a funding that is, it's not yet negative funding, but it's not funding that indicates an extremely bullish sentiment. At BBIT, still, yesterday, we had negative fundings. At Binance, almost 2 days ago still. At Hyper Liquide, generally at Hyper Liquide, there aren't many algorithms yet that benefit from fundings. So that's why they are still quite volatile. We see that we are still at 0.01%. So there are no signs of euphoria here, of FOMO on the rebound we've had since $107,000. So there you go, if we break the fair value gap, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we go for the ATH, honestly. And for now, the price is still bullish because it's taking liquidity, it's maintaining its bullish momentum, it's forming bullish breakers. It's a market, in my opinion, that wants to go higher for now, especially this FOMC week.
Regarding ETH, I already talked about it yesterday, but the objective for me is the ATH. Why? Because on the CME, it hadn't been taken. So I think we'll go back there. Quite simply, when we look at the daily chart, here we see that the fair value gap has more or less been respected. While there were slight closes below, it was quickly regained. New fair value gap. We are in it. I talked about it, it's a fair value gap to maintain to go for the ATH. And what would be needed is to break the last daily FVG here. We attempted to break it, we didn't succeed. But if we do, the objective is the ATH, 4957, the psychological $5000 mark, and it could even go higher, depending on what is said during the FOMC, etc., etc. I remind you, the Fed really needs to bring us new information, that is to say, well, inflation, perhaps abandon the 2% target temporarily to relaunch the labor market, etc., etc., possibly.
And so, on the indices side, well, we are at ATHs almost everywhere. Only the Dow Jones is missing. Similarly, I think the Dow Jones will reach its ATH this week, and that's why if we don't get more news, well, all indices will be at ATHs. This could trigger sell-offs on the news, retracements that can impact cryptos. If we have new information, as I told you, perhaps we will neglect inflation a bit more. Well, then, it would be super bullish, obviously.
Of course, always look, even after the publication of the Fed's projections, etc., interest rates, probabilities. If we start to price in 4 cuts, for example, after the FOMC speech, it's super bullish, meaning that the discourse is favorable to rate cuts. If the market starts to price in fewer cuts, meaning the discourse is not at all favorable to rate cuts, or at least less favorable, and that at that point, we will probably have the sell-off on the news. You have to understand that the discourse will be just as important, and the projections as well. The Fed shares its point of view, its visions on inflation, the labor market, etc. If in their projections, their projections regarding the labor market collapse, it could really indicate that they will cut rates more than we think. So these are things to take into account. If finally their projections on the labor market are good, it could indicate that they will perhaps cut rates less than we think. So all of this is to be interpreted, and in any case, the market will react to it. But it is important to be kept informed of these figures, and especially of the discourse. It's even the most important thing, I would say.
I don't have much more to say. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you in the description box, first link in the pinned comment, you also have access to my trading school for those who want to train with me, have access to the school's training which is right here. There are 19 hours of video courses that train you from A to Z. This training is exclusive to the school. You cannot find it anywhere else. Also, you will have access to the private briefs that I do with students every day from Monday to Friday. I answer their questions. We find opportunities together. I talk about my market exposure, I show you trading concepts, etc., etc. You are welcome, it's right here. Join my trading school. The price is only âŹ49 per month, it's without commitment. You also have 3 and 12 month offers which are even cheaper. You have a description of the school, member testimonials, etc., etc. Don't hesitate, you are welcome. I'll stop here. We'll meet again later for the macro review. See you soon. Bye bye.