Transcription
Hello guys, my name is Colin and I hope you're doing very well. Thank you for joining me. This is Colin Talks Crypto. Today I want to go over Bitcoin, its relationship with the global M2 money supply and more specifically I want to hone in on the end of the bull run. I want to take a look at what could play out for the top of this cycle and specifically this chart. and I'm going to tie this in with Global M2 and we're going to have a little discussion going back and forth on the various variables that make up a Bitcoin bull run top.
So, first of all, I want to give a shout out to I think you pronounce this account name. I believe it's from the Netherlands. Um, here's his ex account. He's a great follow. He makes awesome charts and he made this chart. I want to make sure I give him like 100% credit for this. I did not make this chart. And this chart shows the Bitcoin price line over the last 12 years and the last three cycles including well the current cycle being the third. But in the last two cycles we had a really interesting phenomenon whereby from the bare market bottom I'll start in the uh 2015 cycle to the bull market top was exactly 1,64 days. And in the next cycle, in the 2019 to 2021 cycle, from the bare market bottom to the bull market top was exactly again 1,64 days. What are the odds that both cycles were exactly to the day the same number of days? And I feel almost silly saying this. You hear every analyst make this phrase, but it's not a guarantee that that's going to continue. Like you hear that every time someone makes this past comparison and it's true. So I have to say it. It's not true that that will repeat. We don't know that. We do not know that. But it is uncanny that it happened. And what would be the outcome if it happened again? Let's just look at that. I think it's important to look at time just as much as it is to look at the price. It's very important to look at the timing of the cycles. And so that's what this is. And so hypothetically here, let's just read it off of Jal's post. The previous cycles both lasted 1,064 days. If that pattern repeats, we're about 60 days away from a Bitcoin top. 2 months left in the cycle if this pattern repeats. And he says, furthermore, kind of makes sense with altcoins coming back to life, they probably have a little longer. they have another 90 to 100 days left to run if it plays out the same as the previous cycles. And what he's saying here does make sense. You know, uh, Ethereum typically runs up for about 3 weeks longer than Bitcoin. So, if you have 60 days for a Bitcoin top, add three weeks to that, you'd have two months and three weeks for an Ethereum top from today. And then you'd have another week or two on top of that for the mid and lower tier altcoins to top. Of course, it varies, but like on an average basis, that's kind of what it would look like. And so, what would be the date of things if that happened? I'll give you that right up front. So, if this plays out again, we're looking at a cycle top October 20th, 2025. And that would mean that Ethereum would peak approximately or could peak approximately 3 weeks after that. So what would that give us? I'm going to do this in my head roughly speaking. October 27th, November 4th, November 10th. Let's say November 10th or November 11th for an Ethereum top up here. And then altcoins would be another week or two. So November 18th to November 25th would be the rest of the altcoin peaks roughly speaking. Maybe late November for some of the stragglers. So the bull run could be over for everything by December. And I think it's important to look at this because this has been a strange cycle. You know, it hasn't had a parabolic move. It it's been a stair step the whole way from the bare market bottom all the way to where we are now. And if you look at the prior cycles, that's a little unusual because in these cycles, there's some volatility, but it accelerates and it gets vertical. This part from here to here, the last I don't know how many months that is. The last several months of the cycle do go vertical. Well, if that's the case, then that's probably if it's going to happen, it has to happen now. And even 2 months is not that long for it to happen, but it's something if it goes vertical. Otherwise, we just have this stair step. And if you go back to the first cycle again, it starts off gradual. This one's really like elegant. Uh it's just a smooth parabola like this where it it just increasingly goes vertical toward the end. And um so we haven't seen that yet. And that's a different characteristic of this cycle. But that's the first point I want to bring to your attention is if this cycle repeats like the last cycles in terms of time, then we literally have 60 days left. And actually, I'm looking at this and I think that it's more like 70 days left. He might be off on his math a little bit because I see 994 days. If you subtract that from,64, I'm just doing this in my head right now. That's 70 days remaining. And that actually matches pretty much with this target down here. I was trying to figure out why it said October 20th when it's not yet August 20th, but if you add the extra 10 days in there, that's a lot closer. Yeah. So, that's what we're looking at.
Now, how does this play into things? Now, we have this global M2 supply line which says that liquidity continues to come into the system with a big correction here. And my question right now is, is this the top? Let's look at where October 20th is. I, interestingly, October 20th falls right at this valley. And of course, you know, it doesn't have to be necessarily exact to the day. It could be right here. Maybe that's the top for Bitcoin. Maybe it's right here. I would say somewhere in this range right here is where this timebased prediction is sort of forecasting a top could be is right around here. If you were to look at where it relates to the global M2 supply line, I want to take a a substep and just look at this right here. We have Bitcoin basically retesting all-time highs. It's 122,000 today. And it's followed from August 2nd all the way till August 13th. That move, you can see here's GlobalM 2 bottoming and kind of sub peaking. And look at this bottoming and possibly forming a sub peak. So, this is a very short-term correlation I've done. Now, one thing we know is that, and Benjamin Cohen from Into the Cryptoverse covered this, and he gets full credit for a lot of what I'm going to say here, and he's right, that in all three past Bitcoin cycles, the global M2 line kept running up after Bitcoin actually topped, meaning it led us astray. Meaning, if you kept holding your Bitcoin because you saw the global M2 line going up and every one of those past three cycles, you would have been severely misled and left holding the bags during the bare market stages, like the early bare market stages where Bitcoin had collapsed in value in some cases actually all the way to the bare market near the bottom. I mean that off, like really off. And he's just to regurgitate kind of his summary is that he thinks that it could be possible that instead of the global M2 supply line leading Bitcoin, he thinks that maybe Bitcoin leads the global M2 supply line. He's flipped it entirely. And uh I'm open to his point of view. I don't think that's necessarily true. I think that and when I say I don't think it's necessarily true is because when you do that when you put Bitcoin in front of Global M2, I'm not going to do it here because I don't want to mess up some other drawings I have saved. But when you do that, there's no correlation at all. like the correlation is shattered and disappears entirely and all you have is this mess of overlay where yeah you have global M2 then topping before Bitcoin but there's no other predictive characteristic of the chart at all it's just destroyed and when you overlay them like this where you have global M2 leading Bitcoin you have a beautiful high correlation through most of the cycle and we can get into like theories on why maybe the end of the cycle doesn't align and why global M2 doesn't indicate the top and yet it indicates the rest. And I have a couple theories on that. But that's what it appears to be. I mean, it's gotten to the point where I can use the Global M2 line to predict relatively short-term moves if I really want to start lining things up and looking at sub moves. It's been correct more often than it's not been. I've been able to like I predicted this move up here. If you look at my ex post from the 9th to the 13th and it played out exactly. I didn't know if it would, but it did. And that was the same for back here when people were worried about the cycle being over. I was taking a look at the Global M2 line and saying, "No, there's going to be like a couple sub peaks and it's going to take off." And it very much did. People are quick to forget that. But this setup where global M2 leads Bitcoin has proven successfully predictive to the Bitcoin price like numerous numerous times as far as the intracycle moves are concerned. So we do want to be careful about not being misled led astray toward the top.
One theory is that and this is true in my observation is that the global M2 supply line correlation to Bitcoin is the strongest starting when the Bitcoin ETFs the spot ETFs launched. They launched I believe it was January 2024 and from that moment forward you have a tight correlation of 80 plus% between the two lines and that was not present before and so one could look at that and say well maybe this time Bitcoin will follow the global M2 line correctly because we have that ETF correlation factor and if you look back at the previous cycles there were no ETFs that is one theory I'm just positing some theories with you guys and you can make your own decision. As I said in one of my other videos, I'm going to be cautious because three times missing the top is not something that I want to repeat as far as global M2 leading us astray. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to really start looking at other metrics other than the global M2 in this region and just cross-check because if these other metrics are all saying overheated, red alert, take profits, I'm going to take profits even if global M2 keeps going up because I know that it's possible that Global M2 could be leading us astray again. And I will keep you guys informed of that. So, subscribe, follow me, please share this video while you're at it. And I will cover all those other metrics I'm using. Uh just to name some of them. I always forget some, but off the top of my head, some of the other metrics that I'm going to use to complement this reading are things like the Coinbase app ranking in the iOS app store, the Bitcoin search term on Google, and everyone has their own opinions about these, but I'm going to look at all of them. Um, pronouncedly, I'm going to use the CBBI, the index that myself and Camille Manic created, which aggregates nine historically accurate Bitcoin metrics for determining overheated and underheated Bitcoin price cycles on macro four-year moves, like big, not just like RSI or fear and greed index. Those are a lot smaller cycles. The CBBI goes for the cycle top and the cycle bottom with nine metrics and that's at cbbi.info. That's the website. That's a heavy one I'm going to use. If that starts looking overheated, even if global M2 is going up still, I'm going to, you know, weigh that in significantly. And then one of the metrics, one of the submetrics of CBBI is the PI cycle indicator. And that I'm going to look at with a even higher waiting of importance because the PI cycle indicator has been right every cycle calling the top very very closely almost to the day and so I'm going to grant that an additional importance. Um some of the other things I'm going to look at are there's some moving averages that intersect with previous cycle tops and I'm going to look at that to look at where it might line up with this cycle top. And I'm also going to look at the Tether dominance chart, inverted logarithmic scale, and I've made videos on that in the past. I'm going to be definitely looking at that. In fact, that does look like it's lining up to indicate yet another top, possibly the final cycle top, and I'm going to share that with you again as well on the way up the bull run. Okay, those are most of them. I think I got most of them there. There's probably a few others, but I just painted the picture of the complimenting metrics that I'm going to use. So, I'm not only relying on global M2.
Now, I said I saved some uh indicators here I want to share with you. I did this experiment where I actually overlaid not just global M2 with Bitcoin, but the inverse DXY, which is the US dollar strength compared with a basket of I think it was six or more foreign currencies. And it's inverse because when the US dollar apparently loses strength, that's when Bitcoin gains value and gold and overlaid the gold price here as well. And that was what actually led to my conviction and the experiment that maybe Bitcoin was due for a big move up here. Because if you look at this just this region right here, you know, we can look at the rest as well, but just this region here from really the early part of August to August 13th where we are now, it exactly all three of these lines went up vertically. And so it made me feel kind of confident that Bitcoin could move up. And sure enough, it did. This like complementing of each other is really I think a powerful thing. It's sort of like a confluence of of three different indicators. So, if you're not a global M2 believer, well, are you also going to say you're also not a gold believer and also not an inverse DXY believer when they all have called this move and they all are very rhyming. They're not exactly the same, but they rhyme in their characteristic. I think that that's a very useful metric. Like, if they like right here, they diverge, well, then I have less confidence. But when they all are singing the same song, all three of them, I feel like that's pretty nice. Like that's a pretty increased odds that Bitcoin is going to do what they did uh in this case 82 days ago. These three lines are pushed forward by 82 days in this case, but it seems to work. I've used this before and it does seem to work. So I just wanted to share that with you. And I've got the gold, if you're interested, the gold correlation down here is about 85%, which is actually remarkable how close it is to the global M2 line right here, which is 87.8% correlation to Bitcoin. So you have global M2 87.8% correlated to Bitcoin. You have gold being 85% correlated to Bitcoin. Pretty dang good when offset. These are all offset. And then you have the DXY inverted correlation which is at a positive 51%. Definitely the least of the three. And I want to quickly point out that I had an error in my prior video where it was negative 51% and I fixed that. It's actually a positive 51% which makes a lot more sense. Um it is, you know, somewhat correlated. That's not like totally random. A minus 52 just doesn't make sense or a minus 51% didn't make sense. And thank you to the user who pointed out that error and he was correct about his guess of the formula. I just had forgotten a subtraction sign in one place and that fixed the whole formula because it's inverted and I had done the formula before inverting the number. Long story short. Okay. So I thought you'd like to see this. And so if we look at this actually it does kind of show that Bitcoin is going to continue likely heading up until early September. It's kind of what it looks like to me. And then you get this correction here possibly. Now, this is the gold line, right? Now, let's remove gold and just go back to You're free to look at that again if you want, but just go back to the global M2 line. And this area right here is a pretty big corrective zone from global M2. Now, my question is, I'm starting to wonder if based on stuff like this, the timing of the cycle, which is just saying like 70 days from now, that's where the top could be. Well, might this be the top right around here? This corrective area? This could be it. And if global M2 keeps going up, this is where I think we need to really pay attention. Now, if the advent of Bitcoin spot ETFs since the beginning of 2024 does make Bitcoin adhere more closely to the global M2 line and prevents the fake out that we've experienced in those previous three years where we did not have the luxury of the spot ETFs for Bitcoin, then there's a chance that maybe Bitcoin would keep following the Global M2 line up if it does continue to go up, which it it's having a nice rebound here. It does look like it might be wanting to make another leg up, but I'm not willing to throw out the past three cycles where Global M2 failed to call the top and just blindly follow the theory, the unproven theory that the advent of the spot ETFs now suddenly makes Bitcoin permanently glued to the Global M2 line. I'm not willing to make that experiment with my money. I'm willing to keep it in the back of my mind as a possibility. And if Global M2 did make a new high and keep going up here, that's a 2026 move. That's a 2026 move. And that means that it took more than 1,64 days. So then we're kind of breaking this chart. And there's no right or wrong here. Like these are just two models, right? We're just looking at models. No model is going to perfectly predict the future. But I think it's worth noting that they each kind of say a similar thing right now possibly, especially if Global M2 is calling the top right here. So I think we need to keep our eye on that.
And I think I'm going to leave the video here. I want to just clarify one other thing in the very last video I made, the previous video to this one. I feel like I did make an error at the end of the video and I just want to clarify that regarding altcoins. And some of you guys pointed this out and I think you were correct. I think I was too quick in the video while recording it and I said that the top was going to be something like April. Okay, this is the chart I had showed you in the last video. Total three, which is all altcoins minus Bitcoin and minus Ethereum. And I had said that this arrow, I haven't even moved the arrow since the last time I recorded the video, proposed a potential altcoin top of April 2026. I think that I measured it wrong. I think that it's actually earlier than that because I had said let's take the last steepest 6 months of this cycle, the last cycle, and tack it on two months ahead of now and take that as a top. I think that is incorrect because we've already seen some moves up. I I have to include that in my math in my calculations. So, I feel like this arrow has to get moved back. Basically, if you keep in mind the other chart I just showed you here, me correcting the placement of this arrow does match that chart better as well. Just as a side note, I'm not doing it because of that chart. I was going to tell you this even before I saw that chart. It just further compounds the idea that April 1st was probably too late. So, let's do the measurement a little more accurately. Let's just correct things. So, first of all, let's take it from when the total three line breaks through the previous all-time high. And then we have right here three bars. Is that right? Three bars. Yes. Which is three months because these are monthly candles. And now let's do the same. Let's say that in a month or two from now, I still think that the cycle might pump and break through this in a month or two from now. Let's say 1 month from now we get 3 months of bull run. That takes us to December 1st. That makes a lot more sense because we're measuring apples to apples here. We're measuring the breakout from the total three all-time high. Here's three monthly candles. There's your December 1st. And then let's take it the other way. A I was measuring it from the bottom to the top of the move. 14 bars. Now, this is a little trickier cuz like where do you count the bottom from? I guess you'd count it from here, but does that even make sense? This cycle has gone uh a little differently, right? Yeah. 14 bars only takes you to here. So, that measurement doesn't make sense. And that's kind of what I mixed up the two measurements. So, being like more honest and accurate with my measurements. I think the only real way to do it this time is to measure from the breaking of the all-time high. Take these three bars here and do the same thing right here. And you then get basically that would put it there. So yeah, again, December 1st, that's the new corrected altcoin top prediction right there. Okay, guys. I feel better about that. I feel like that is more plausible. And the only way we're going to get a $10,000 or more Ethereum price is if it happens in a extended cycle in 2026, the only way, these are my opinions, the only way we're going to get a Bitcoin price that's over $250,000 would be if the cycle continues in 2026. Otherwise, I don't think those things are possible. I don't think it's possible to get a Bitcoin price over $250,000 in 2025. I don't I also don't think it's possible to get an Ethereum price over $10,000 in 2025. I don't I only think those two things are possible if the cycle somehow extends, which is not impossible, somehow extends into 2026. And furthermore, all the remaining altcoins then if they are to see some parabolic move up to a new high in 2026. I think that that's only possible obviously if the Bitcoin cycle extends into 2026 and per the global M2 chart. It is possible that this could be the top this area right here in October. And so we're going to keep an eye on that. Thank you very much for joining me and I hope this was helpful. Let me know what you think in the comments below. And again, please like, follow, share, subscribe, get this content out there, and let me know what you think. Have a great day. [Music]