Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal of Monday, October 13, 2025, with a week that is turning green, huh? It could have been carnage, but look, it's the same tune being sung from the US side. Trump starts with a hammer blow. Bam, I put 100% tariff. 150, 200% more. Boom, the markets fall just before the weekend. He's been playing this trick on us for a while now. Weekends, he sends, don't worry, everything is fine. I just spoke on the phone, or he just got an email, or he sent me a carrier pigeon, whatever he wants. And he's open to negotiation. He's a wonderful person. In fact, I adore him, I like him a lot, you see. And then on Mondays, Monday after the markets, they arrive and boom, they are all green, they are all beautiful. Oh well, Titon, we're starting to get used to it now. He'll have to change his strategy a bit, you see. Okay. And so it didn't fail. So this morning, I talked about it in the news video, go see where every morning you have a news video where I announce all the news, that's why I call it a news video. Hashtag funny and amusing today. Okay, and so, and so this weekend, Jean-Père, my words, well Trump declared that the Chinese president was open to negotiation. The Chinese president declared, pay attention to the licenses I will put on precious metals. Well, I don't want to make a mess, it will be easy to get. Don't worry. I will honor all the order books. Basically, he's backing down, you see. Trump arrived at Comau, he says "Oh, it's okay. Actually, no, what I meant wasn't that." Okay, and so they like each other a lot and they're even going to have children together. That's going to be great. And that's why the market is all green. Well, the big joke. And of course, a thought for all the people who got wiped out on Friday on futures because well, when the market, it comes back, not yet, but not far from Friday's level. Well, those who lost a lot, you feel like throwing yourself out the window, you see, because you're disgusted. You're disgusted. It's really a flash crash. I sent you a little analysis, a little comparison with the history of carry trades on the yen last year. Flash crash, small retest, and boom, it takes off again. Well, I sent that on social media. So for now, well, cryptos are still in the green. If we look, well, Wall Street is still in the green, Europe is slightly mixed. We'll look at all that. Okay, what's funny is that for now, for the month of October, we are still in the green. No, it's not funny. At +0.63%. Okay, so well, it's funny because if we finish the month of October with a little like 1%, we have time, there are two big weeks left, but we can say that October is finishing in the green. Okay. With behind it, people who have lost almost everything. So, that's October. Okay, so where are we with the altcoins, the Daily? Well, they kept their 200-day moving average. So bravo, our chartists speaking, it's very beautiful. This strong support is preserved, but be careful, it's struggling on the 50-day moving average. So we understand well that if the altcoins manage to break through this 50, to reach the upper Bollinger band at 950 billion and break it, then it's off to the moon, as some would say. Now, be careful if the 5-day moving average rejects it, why could it reject it? Because we are right in the short zone. Yes, we are right in it. And so if the market wants to fall back to try to make a double or double bottom or go even lower, then it will be decided here clearly in the short zone. So if the bulls manage to break through this short zone and break the high of Friday's purge, well, it's off, you see, it's off to the top. So these big purges and boom, the train is emptied. Now the train is more than emptied, it's cleaned, they've scrubbed it with alcohol, it's brand new, the train, you see. Okay, and so if that happens, it takes off again. Now, be careful, the short zone could push the price back to test this wick because when we have big nuclear wicks like that, the market likes to retrace them, to fiddle with them to see if they are solid or not. You see, we'll have to be careful about that. As for our beloved Bitcoin today, well, it's bumping its nose a bit, but slightly on a resistance duo, the duo that plays the average price over the last 9 and 26 days of the Ichimoku system. Well, if our little Bitcoin manages to pass here, around 115670, then it's off to the upper Bollinger band at 127367. Imagine the smell, imagine, you see, what if I speak fluent English. Okay, imagine that Bitcoin breaks through this moving average, well, sorry, it's a yellow candle and it pushes and goes to a historic record. Well, the flash crash that made people lose a lot of money. You want to hit, I don't know who you want to hit, there are too many people to hit. Okay, but you're disgusted. You're disgusted, you see, it's like the big purge and boom, it takes off, you see. Okay, I'm not saying it will happen. Now, we see that the bears are here, they have the momentum, and now we see that we are in the short zone. So be careful when you draw your short zones, this is the index. This is the average of all the trades, but since almost all the trades, except for a few, had their order book smashed. Some had big problems, like for example Binance, where some things went to zero, even the algorithms they have that allow them to save these kinds of liquidity crises, which means the order book is completely eaten up to zero. Normally, they have buffers, they have buffer safes that allow them to inject liquidity to avoid this. But that didn't work. Oh, sorry, apologies. Okay. Hashtag we are sorry. #bdance hashtag get out of Bance hashtag come look at Bing, we're doing well there. Okay, and so, and so here, why am I saying this? Because the short zones are different because some of them are at the lows, some are at the lower lows. That's why the short zone for me on the index is here. Okay, between 116 and 118900. So if Bitcoin has to be pushed back for us to go down again, then it's in the short zone between 116 and 119. And we've already put a toe in, and already, okay. But since we have a small bearish channel, it could give a little push in the short zone to fall or to smash it and boom, and it's off because if we look at the liquidity a bit, well, it's accumulating a bit to the south, you see. You think it's over, there are no more longs, but no, they're settling in. As soon as the cat turns its head the other way, the mice dance behind, you see. And so the cat turns its head north, and the mice are slowly coming back. So of course, there's much more to be liquidated to the north. So Bitcoin could go up to 120,000 to eat all that, and then it could go between 122 and 26 to eat all that. But be careful about the double bottom before taking off again, it remains possible. Knowing that we don't forget, this is the joke, that despite the flash crash, the gap at 110990 is still relevant because we fell after the closing of the CME futures contracts, you see. And that's how it is at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, if you will, the last one closed the door, he turned around, he went home, and then all the lights turned red and everything, but he was at home, quietly, quietly, you see, and that's the idea. So as soon as they closed, the flash crash was a party, anyway. Okay, as for Ethereum, today it's recovering the duo that acts as support, bravo at 4110 now, and for Ethereum to be beautiful, it needs to break the 50-day moving average at 4350, and then it will be good. However, this 50-day moving average at 4350 is right in the short zone, so it will play out there. That is to say, if the bulls manage to break through this 50-day moving average, they will go to the upper Bollinger band at 4760, and then if they break that, it's off to the moon. If the bulls are rejected at 4350 in the short zone, because we have a small channel here. This small channel has a high probability of breaking upwards to reach the 50-day moving average, and everything will play out there. If the 50-day moving average rejects, boom, redirection to retest the bottom of the wick, you see. So as long as we haven't broken through the short zone, we can get a slap downwards. That's why we need to be cautious. Okay, the bears are here for now. Okay, very good. So, there are many bullish divergences lighting up clearly on the daily, huh? Okay. On Bitcoin here, no bullish divergence, but on Ethereum, yes, there are many bullish divergences that have lit up. Ethereum has made lower lows in price, but the momentum indicators have made higher highs. Okay? So that's rather good news. So yes, Ethereum, to change, last time I told you we were at 4950, be careful, there were bearish divergences appearing everywhere, some people weren't happy, but well, those who listened at least sold, they bought cheaper, lower. Now, I'm telling you the opposite. Ethereum has many bullish divergences that have lit up. So it could be very beautiful for it, you see. As for me, I have nothing against Ethereum, I'm just doing analysis, you see. What about liquidations? We can see that, okay, to the south, there are longs positioned, I think around 3006, approximately, but well, there's not much. 4 billion, there's about 7 billion to the north, not much, it's still 4 billion. So, will the market go to the short zone, be rejected to retest the double bottom and take off again, or explode directly, like during COVID, you see, or it falls and then boom, it takes off directly? It remains a possibility, but well, we need to be cautious. And what will it depend on? Well, it depends on Trump and his best friend now, the Chinese president. You see, as for Solana, it has preserved its 200-day moving average well, it's beautiful. Look, one touch, two touches, three touches. It's very beautiful. Around $172. Now, what is Solana? Solana to the moon, it broke through its 50-day moving average at 216, which is above the short zone, and then it will look for the upper Bollinger band at 244 and break 244. It's off to the moon. Now, be careful, the short zone is between 203 and 213. Everything will be decided there. Here, we have a small bearish channel. These small bearish channels are very beautiful, I think. I'll take some small longs maybe before tonight, before bed, to reach the short zone, you see. Because there are bearish channels everywhere here. A beautiful bearish channel on Solana that has a higher probability of breaking upwards. A small bearish channel on Ethereum that has a higher probability of breaking upwards, and on Bitcoin, a bearish channel. This morning, I talked about it in the VIP video. I'm waiting for it to mature a bit, but these small bearish channels are very, very beautiful. In the short term, there's a high probability of it breaking upwards. But be careful in the short zone, or rather inside, I need to put the exclamation mark. That's where everything will be decided. As long as Solana doesn't break 213, it could go boom, a little dip downwards, for example, to make a small double bottom before taking off, if you will. Or what we call, or rather, I do wave trading, we call it a regular flat, small A, small B, small C. So if it doesn't break the high, it will go a bit below the wick before taking off. Okay, that's the idea. So we'll see. In any case, for now, this is the structure I expect for everyone. The most natural structure. We made wave A, we're making wave B, we're making wave C, and then we take off again. Okay, that's the idea. Anyway, we have time. Wave B is in progress, there's quite a bit of time that will pass. Solana has almost as much liquidity to the south as to the north. To the north, 1 billion, to the south, around 800 million. So, can Solana go and reach the short zone here to liquidate a bit while the longs are being liquidated, they open, they open, they open even more, and then hello boom, I'll do the wave C to go and get all that and play the big comeback. This is the scenario I'm personally following. Okay. And finally, as for XRP, well, after having gone through the deep hell of nations, for now, the 200-day moving average is above its head. Today, the 200-day moving average, which is at 2.57, is pushing it back a bit. For XRP to be beautiful, we've understood, it needs to break this 200-day moving average, the 50-day moving average at 2.90, break the upper band at 320, and break 320, it's off to the moon. Okay, for now, well, the bears are here. This one, the chart is disgusting. The chart is blown up because the wick is so gigantic that it creates a short zone that is around here. So, the chart is disgusting. So XRP, I'll follow Bitcoin and Ethereum for my trades, not XRP. XRP is too disgusting. We don't forget that XRP also has a gap to close at 213 despite this sacrificial wick where many unfortunately gave their body, their soul, and their money to the Bitcoin god, I think. And well, XRP still has this gap here because it closed at the CME when it fell. As for liquidity, well, the longs have returned a bit, but there are a bit more shorts to look for. You see, there are 350 million shorts for about 200 million longs. So, a little XRP. Well, since it's also making a small channel, be careful, it has a slightly higher probability of falling downwards to perhaps start liquidating a bit of that. But since XRP's chart is very ugly, don't even bother looking at it. Look at what Bitcoin is doing, and XRP will follow. Okay, a quick look at the stock market. Well, listen, since Trump said that now with his new best friend, the Chinese president, whom he finds wonderful, wonderful man, I'm joking because every time he hits everyone with a hammer, all the presidents, all the countries, you see, a good hammer blow to the head, it arrives, give what you want, and when the other one comes back, he doesn't fight back, he says "Oh, excuse me, I'm sorry." He says to him "Ah, I knew it, I adore you, you're a wonderful person. We're going to do great things together." You see, always the same speech. It's funny how he does it. He hits first, and then when the person says sorry, he says they're great. Okay, anyway, Wall Street is in a beautiful green, with Nvidia pushing, and when Nvidia goes, everything goes, just like Petiva, everything goes. Europe, well, it's a bit more mixed because well, it's mainly the US-China link. So, since the US government is closed this week, there will be no figures. However, Powell will speak tomorrow at 6:20 PM. Well, I'll check exactly because I haven't found what he's going to talk about yet. If he talks about something really strong, a long speech, maybe I'll do a live. If it's something small and insignificant, well, maybe there won't be a need for a live, you see. Okay, so we'll have to see a bit what he says. Will he talk about the economy? Will he talk about economic projections? Will he talk about future interest rate cuts, all that? Yes, why not? It could be interesting to do a live if he doesn't talk about all that. Okay, we won't bother if he doesn't say anything special. So, you should know that this week is banking week. So tomorrow morning at the market opening, we'll have BlackRock releasing its quarterly report, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, it's crazy. You'll also have, during the week, Bank of New York, you'll also have American Express. Well, it's banking week. Morgan Stanley will also report. Well, it's banking week. So, will it influence the market a bit? Well, it's possible. It's not like Nvidia is releasing its figures, you see. But well, maybe it can cause a bit of a stir, but I don't think so, between us, I don't think so much. As for the S&P 500, well, finally, you see, hop, we opened higher with a nice little bullish gap. Why is there a bullish gap? Well, because yesterday, Sunday, Trump said "The Chinese president is wonderful, I adore him, we're going to do great things together." Well, people pressed the buy button all Sunday, and it opens with a gap up. So, you see, well, finally, for now, it's okay. For now, the markets are in the green. Let's recall that Hong Kong, for example, opened lower, not pretty, but it was bought back a bit. So, for now, it's okay. Everything will depend on Trump. The analysis is easy. You follow Trump's Twitter account, his social media account too if you want, his account, his social network, you see. And as soon as he says something ugly, you short. As soon as he says something good, you long. You see. However, some investors are a bit fed up, and it shows, because you see that the gold continues to make historic record after historic record. It's crazy, almost $4100 an ounce for gold. Where will it go? After infinity, there's only the beyond, as a great philosopher once said in history. At some point, something will have to be done with this gold, or it will retrace. However, what's good news is that historically, when gold explodes, Bitcoin catches up with the slight delay, you see. Okay, so gold explodes upwards, continues its moon, silver continues its moon, and copper follows behind, and the barrel falls. Well, you can feel that a few things aren't quite right. You see, crypto stocks, well, they remain a bit green, a bit mixed, and the bond market is exploding upwards. People are rushing into Treasury bonds, into the US 10-year, also into the European 10-year. US 10-year, US 20-year, US 30-year, everything is exploding upwards. So people are scared, they're going into defensive assets, except for precious metals. The bond market, because with Trump, it's normal, you don't know what it's going to be. Are we heading for a trade war, or not? On Friday, we're heading for a trade war, on Sunday, finally not. Will we really head for a trade war the day after tomorrow? But finally, on Friday, no. You see, you don't know where to go, you see. You don't know where you're navigating. By the way, go see the little thumbnail I made for you in this morning's video, you'll like it. Okay, and as the captain of the crazy boat, where are we sailing? Where are we going? Well, it's Trump who unfortunately decides the good and bad weather. Okay, and the dollar is a bit green, it's coming back a bit into the cash today. Okay, this little update. So for now, well, Monday is rather good, but one misplaced sentence from Trump is enough. Poof, unfortunately, not good. Sending kisses. Thanks for listening. See you next time. Bye bye.