Transcription
All right. Hey, it's been a while. Welcome back.
I sold all my Bitcoin and I suffered absolutely massive financial losses. If you told me a year ago I'd be saying this out loud on camera, I'd have laughed in your face. But that's why I've been gone. People kept asking where I went. And the honest answer is I couldn't face you guys.
Bitcoin fell from 120k last October to the low 60ks this summer. A 50% crash. And nothing can prepare you for what a move like this does to you mentally, especially when you're leveraged. Money, easy come, easy go. I was overleveraged. A simple small mistake with brutal consequences. And as the price kept bleeding down with no bounce, no relief rally, I was staring down the barrel of liquidation. And so I had a choice. Either sell, take the loss and survive or hold. Stand by my ideals and get wiped out. And so I sold.
And then I went dark because I realized I had no idea what I was doing anymore. I'd built my entire identity around this. I was the Bitcoin guy. But as the markets moved against me and my thesis simply was not playing out, I only doubled down and found myself confused, depressed, burned out, and honestly a little embarrassed at how deluded I had let myself become.
I'm rebuilding now. And to be clear, I'm still bullish long term. I'll probably buy back in lower someday. But on my way down, I did see something I can't unsee. And if you understand this, it may save you the same pain I just went through. So in this video, I will explain exactly what I saw that unsettled my nerve so much.
So here's what I had backwards the entire time. In an attention economy, you don't trade fundamentals, you trade attention. And that attention is liquidity. So let me make this simple. Think about NFTTS. People paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for a JPEG. Everyone bought high. Everyone held. No one sold diamond hands, right? But did that keep the price up? Well, no. NFTs collapse anyways and most are worth zero today because price is not about how many people buy and hold. It's about whether a new buyer shows up tomorrow willing to pay more, the next marginal buyer. And so the moment attention disappears, so too does the buyer. And that is the whole mechanism. And the same may happen to Bitcoin as well. Holding does not save you, only the next buyer does.
So, the real problem is attention. You see, the difference with gold is gold doesn't need new attention. It's had 5,000 years of it baked into history, culture, family traditions. Well, companies don't need it either because companies manufacture attention regularly. They have a marketing department. New products, new iPhones, press releases, quarterly earnings, conferences, launches. There's always a fresh reason for a new buyer to show up. But Bitcoin has none of that. No earnings, no yield, no press releases. Bitcoin needs people to talk about it to attract new buyers. And the people who used to talk about it have gone silent. The crypto influencers disappeared, if you haven't noticed, not because they necessarily lost faith, but because of wrench attacks. In fact, I would say Bitcoin's decline coincides exactly with the rise of wrench attacks. Posting your gains online started getting people physically robbed. There were 72 attacks worldwide in 2025. Criminals showed up at your door as a package delivery food driver or a fake cop. And so a chill fell upon the whole crypto community. Everyone went silent, anonymous, stopped posting. Bitcoiners adopted the new mantra. Never talk about your Bitcoin. And so that 2021 guy with the laser eyes and the Lambo gone. He's no longer recruiting that next wave of buyers. He is checking his doorbell camera now. And the rest are just exhausted. Exhausted of explaining what inflation is yet again, what scarcity is, how the Fed prints money, what store value means, or what proof of work is. And everyone's exhausted of hearing about this over and over again. Nobody wants yet another lecture on sound money. And so the retail wave already came and went in 2021. The Wall Street wave already happened with the ETF launches. excitement came and went and so who is the next marginal buyer and that's the question I could not answer because attention is liquidity and right now all attention is focused on one thing AI there's absolutely zero appetite to build a Bitcoin reserve by anyone not by any company not by any country and anyone who has any cash at all is spending it on AI immediately AI capex is exploding no one's saving everybody's spending Google is diluting its own shareholders so that they can spend more. And ever since AI went parabolic, no one is even thinking about building a reserve, much less buying Bitcoin with it. Let's check the price here. Bitcoin under 60K now.
Once I understood attention is liquidity, the exit door is what actually scared me into selling. So here's the problem. The liquidity that built up during the 2021 mania was simply no longer exists anymore. We never hit critical mass where the merchants and businesses are actually transacting in Bitcoin. And so the pool you'd sell into today is far shallower than in 2021. We are skating on thin ice. And a lot of people still need to exit. Mount Gox creditors finally getting repaid after more than a decade. 35,000 coins for people who are exhausted and just won out. Strategy still sitting on 850,000 coins bought largely with borrowed money. They quietly started selling just a little this year, hoping you will become their exit liquidity. Early whales who still need to cash out digital asset treasuries all watching that one exit door like hawks and nation states too. Every one of them are watching that one exit, hoping no one moves for it. But the liquidity they're all counting on only existed during the 2021 mania runup, and it would take years to rebuild now that it's evaporated. And I suspect currently there may not be enough liquidity for everyone to get out.
There's one other thing that's unsettled my conviction gradually over months. The developers, Bitcoin Core. The dominant software running the network is a group called Bitcoin Core. And the number of people who hold the keys that decide what code actually gets merged in is six. Only six people control Bitcoin Core. Now, I'm not accusing these six people of anything. They may be talented. I'm just pointing at the number because last year they pushed through a change that most of the Bitcoin community, Sailor included, begged the devs not to make. Version 30 increased how much arbitrary junk metadata you can stuff into a transaction. When the whole point of Bitcoin was supposed to be lean money and not a clogged hard drive, but they did it anyway, enough people revolted that a rival version called Bitcoin Knots went from nothing to 20% of the network in just a few months. Now, Bitcoin not is maintained by just one developer. And this drama with core isn't new either. Bitcoin core supporters also controls the main Bitcoin subreddit. And so back in 2015 during the blob size wars, they tried banning entire discussions, deleting top voted threads, even posts from the CEO of Coinbase. And so this is your decentralized global money. six people with the keys to the code, one Reddit mod who decides what you're allowed to say about it, and a backup plan held together by a single Outcast developer, decentralized. When I step back and look at this, I didn't know what I had signed up for anymore.
What's also unsettling is there are two ticking time bombs for Bitcoin. The first is quantum. Now, eventually, a powerful enough quantum computer could break through the cryptography guarding Bitcoin wallets. And look, maybe that's not even going to happen. But regardless, I was stunned. There's been no cohesive plan or dev community who could put together a plan. We couldn't even stop each other from jamming junk metadata onto the chain. And this is who would have to coordinate a networkwide migration under deadline with hundreds of billions of dollars on the line. The second clock are the miners. Everyone says Bitcoin is digital gold, but this would gloss over technical details. Miners secure the network and they have to get paid in two ways. either newly minted coins or your transaction fees. And the problem is, well, 95% of all Bitcoin is already minted. The fee economy that they would depend on never showed up. Satoshi never imagined wrapped bitcoins, never imagined most coins just sitting there, not moving, not paying fees, not getting attention. And so, as the fees fade, minor switch off, security drops, the network weakens again, more minor sell-off, and a slow death spiral could trigger. Nobody really knows what happens when the fees run dry.
The original dream was sovereign money. Sounds great. But let's be honest, too. That dream is very idealistic and maybe even dangerously naive. Will any government really tolerate a system it cannot control? No KYC, no AML, no capital controls, no sanctions abilities. China already banned it outright. And even in the US, their currently friendly treatment is only political theater. The Bitcoin strategic reserve was a circus show for votes, not law. And the government has bought exactly zero new bitcoins for it. Trump's approval numbers have been steadily declining. The tariffs and wars have not been popular. So what if the Democrats take back power in 2028, turn hostile to crypto, and the next bull cycle might not arrive until 2032 at the earliest. That's another six years of waiting. So ask yourself, will the 2032 cohort be as excited to discover Bitcoin as the 2021 cohort was? And what age will you be by then? Is your time horizon really that long? Or would that have been your life passing by?
And so after all of that, why am I still bullish? Because the technology is real. And I think over the long term, Bitcoin gets stronger with each new generation that rediscovers it. So, if you can buy a little and stash it somewhere you won't touch, Bitcoin gets rediscovered every cycle, usually right after everyone agrees it's dead, which comes to think of makes this video a pretty solid bottom signal. Look, I remember buying my first Bitcoin at $800 in 2013. I watched the crash to $200 and saw the exact bottom. See, I'm a contrarian indicator. Just do the exact opposite of me. But that's the lesson, isn't it? Being right in the short term counts for nothing. Being right in the long term counts for everything. So, no, I'm not out. I'm just stepping back and watching the door. I'll be monitoring the situation. And if I just sold the bottom again, well, you know what to do.
So, those are my thoughts, but let me know in the comments below what are your thoughts on the Bitcoin situation. See you there, and I'll see you in the next one.