Transcription
Week six, fantasy football matchup previews here. Matchups that matter. Everything you need to know from overunders to where the sharps are betting, pace of play, DVOA, and more. Who has good matchups, who has bad matchups is coming at you right now. If you enjoy, like, subscribe if you're new around here. All that good stuff. Let's get it kicked off.
We got two teams on buy this week. No Texans, no Vikings. So, you guys will be without a couple of high-end wide receivers specifically from those two teams. We do have a London kickoff uh at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast. So, make sure you guys get your fantasy football lineup set before you go to bed and or get up early to make sure you guys are good to go on that one.
Uh Denver Broncos taking on the New York Jets in London. Broncos are favored by 7 and 12 points. The Broncos also implied for over 25 points in this game. The overunder, the game environment not overly exciting. Uh overunder of just 43 and a half. The over catching a bit of the steam here. And then the pace of play is pretty average. Denver's DVOA as an offense versus the Jets DVOA as a defense is the sixth highest advantage on the entire slate though. So it looks like it's a great matchup for the Denver offense to work with. And then the Jets offense not so much of an easier matchup. If you guys are looking for fantasy starters here, Bone Knicks versus Justin Fields. If I had to start one quarterback in this game, it would actually be Bone Knicks. Even though Justin Fields has been the better fantasy quarterback, Justin Fields has the tougher matchup against the Denver defense, which I'll get to in the stat of the game in a second. Bree Hall versus the Denver run defense. He has historically done quite well against this defense. And Denver is a lot more of a run funnel than they are a pass funnel. Very strong against the pass, not so much versus the run. JK Dobbins is an every week starter as of right now. He is a top 24 running back in my rankings. It's a tougher matchup for him, so that's why he's more of a flex play, but he is definitely still probably in most of your lineups. We do have shadow matchups on either side of the ball here. PS2 the reigning defensive player of the year going up against Garrett Wilson and Courtland Sutton going up against S Gardner who has not had a good start to the season. So even though Sutton has a tough matchup on paper because S Gardner is generally supposed to be a really good quarterback, he has not played very well so far this year. And Garrett Wilson, this is his first real test high-end shadow coverage uh for him. He's having a breakout season. Uh Mason Taylor is in play. If you guys need a streamer tight end, I think he is definitely one of the better ones, which I'll get to at the end of this video talking about streamers. And Evan Ingram, if you're completely desperate, is probably widely available in a lot of your leagues. And this is the easiest matchup in the league for fantasy tight ends.
The stat of the game here, the Broncos, who lead the league in success rate as a defense, are also allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Now, you might be thinking, okay, who do they play? Well, they played Jaylen Herz. He had three rushing yards. They played Daniel Jones. He had two rushing yards. and they play Justin Herbert who had six rushing yards. So, Fields is a great rusher, but by no means is he a must start in this matchup. This is a not great game environment and also Justin Fields a brutal match up through the air and on the ground.
Moving into the 1 p.m. slate, we have seven 1pm games, three 4pm games, one Sunday night football game, and then two Monday night football games here. The Rams taking on the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 7 and 12 point home underdogs in this situation. We expect no Lamar Jackson yet again. It's probably going to be Cooper Rush. Although they have whispered that maybe Tyler Huntley would be in play for the uh the Baltimore Ravens in this game. 44 and a half point overunder. The over catch and a little bit of the steam here. Pace of play is again league average, but the Rams have the best matchup advantage of any team on the entire slate. Their offense one of the best in the league in DVOA. The Ravens defense probably the single worst in the league in DVOA. So definitely a great matchup for Puka, for Devonte Adams, for Kairen Williams and for Matthew Stafford. you are starting all of those players. Matthew Stafford, great streaming quarterback this week. Kairen Williams, of course, in your lineup every week, as are the two receivers. Zay Flowers did pop up on the injury report with a little shoulder injury. I think he'll be just fine. Uh it sounds like just a, you know, mild sprain that he has there. Um Derrick Henry has not been great this year and this is a terrible matchup for him. Again, no Lamar Jackson, really good run defense in the Los Angeles Rams that's pretty much held every running back they've gone against. Too minimal yardage, but Derrick Henry needs to get off the schneide in this one. So you probably got to have him in your lineup as at least a top 24 running back. Mark Andrews no longer startable. He's actually being floated in trade discussions right now. So maybe if you have a a deeper league, a tight end premium, something like that, you could probably stash Isaiah likely at the end of your bench in case Andrews does in fact get traded. And then start Rams defense and both kickers as well because uh this is a matchup that is quite good for the special teams units. Um but specifically the Rams kicker because they're going to be implied for a lot more points.
Stat of the game here. Per ESPN, the worst rut of Derrick Henry's career is taking place right now. He has been held to 50 or less rushing yards in four straight games. And Henry needs to look like he's still one of the better running backs in football because even without Lamar Jackson in this game, he should be better than he's been over the past couple of games. So again, I still think he's a decent buy low candidate because after the buy, I expect Lamar Jackson to be back. They're on buy in week seven. Probably won't have him for this game. And I do think given the schedule that Derrick Henry and the Ravens have, they could end up scoring a lot of points and being a lot better for fantasy going forward. But for now, let's see Dererick Henry show some signs of life as a player in this game.
Dallas Cowboys take on the Carolina Panthers. Cowboys are three-point road favorites against the Panthers who just put up a nice fight against the Dolphins themselves. Over under of 49 and a half points, which is the second highest on the entire slate. Plus 27% of the money here, the sharp money on the over in this game. And the pace of play is also the third highest on the entire slate. Both offenses have top 15 DVOA advantages as opposed to the opposing defense because I mean the Cowboys defense has been terrible even though the Panthers offense has struggled. They might get Jaylen Coker back in this game which will be big. Might get JT Sanders back at tight end which might be big. Um Dak Prescott's going to be in your lineup. He is definitely an a starter at this point. the way he's playing. He's playing literal MVP caliber football and I'm very glad I have him as my backup to Lamar Jackson in the Flock League because I feel very confident in him as a play this week. Uh Bryce Young in play as a streamer if you guys need a quarterback because I can't imagine anybody was really starting CJ Strad or um you know Carson Wentz or whatever. But if you had an injury, if you you know need a fill in, I think Bryce Young is a great option. Javvante Williams an every week starter at this point. I mean he's a 20 point per game running back and he's averaging 100 yards per game and a touchdown per game. So, he's in your lineup despite the tough matchup. Rico Dattle Revenge Game is going to have everybody real excited to start him. Looks like Chuba Hubard is going to be out again for this game. He's still dealing with that calf injury, not practicing as of Thursday. And I do think Rico Dattle will take the mantle yet again and probably have another great game without Chuba Hubard out there. This is a revenge game for him. Obviously, the Cowboys is where he played last year. Tedoya McMillan, I would have a hard time not getting him into my lineup regardless of your other options because T-MAC against the 32nd ranked Dallas defense against fantasy wide receivers is a juicy juicy matchup and they also which I'll get into in the stat of the game play a lot of zone coverage which Tedar McMillan excels with. Uh George Pickkins is going to be in your lineup of course Jake Ferguson and every week starter at tight end and Brandon Aubrey the best kicker in all of fantasy. Those guys are all going to be in your lineup.
Stat of the game here, Cowboys 83% of the time are running zone coverage. That is the highest rate through the first five games of a season since 2017. So, this is a team that really likes to play soft coverage, doesn't really like to give up a lot of man reps, but that's great news for Rico D to catch passes out of the backfield. And of course, Tedo McMillan to rack up the receptions cuz he's been quite good at finding the soft spots in zone coverage this year. So, expect both of those guys to have really strong performances.
Moving into the next game, we have the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Indianapolis Colts. This is the fumble out the back of the end zone bowl because of course De Marcato and AD Mitchell notoriously have done that this year. 46 and a half point overunder. The over catching a lot of the steam there. 23% of the sharp money on the over in this game. Um this matchup is going to be really wonky mainly because Kyler Murray could be out for this game. We haven't seen him really practice much this week. It is possible that he doesn't play in this one and in which case I would definitely imagine that the Colts become nine-point favorites, 10-point favorites, something like that. And the overunder probably dropping a little bit. Daniel Jones is going to be in your lineup. Jonathan Taylor is going to be in your lineup. Michael Pitman is going to be in your lineup. And Tyler Warren's going to be in your lineup. You feel very good starting all those Indianapolis Colts players. Of course, Trey McBride every week starter at tight end for the Cardinals. And Marvin Harrison Jr. despite seeing shadow coverage from Charvarius Ward this week, is probably a top 24 play at wide receiver as well. Do we see that same usage that we saw from Michael Carter last week for the Arizona Cardinals? He took the majority of the work and of course De Marcado did fumble out the back of the end zone. So, we don't know for sure if he's going to be punished for that, but we would imagine Michael Carter sees maybe even an increase on the role he had last week. Uh Indianapolis defense absolutely in play, especially if Kyler Murray doesn't play and Spencer Shrader, assuming he's healthy, absolutely in play for the Colts as well.
Stat of the game, the Cardinals are surprisingly second in EPA per rush allowed and now face the leading rusher of the NFL, Jonathan Taylor. So, this is strength on strength, really good rushing offense versus really good rushing defense. They're more of a pass funnel, the Cardinals defense. And Jonathan Taylor has 478 yards in five games. So, even though you feel very confident in Jonathan Taylor, it may be a bit of a tougher matchup than it appears for him.
Uh, Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Seattle Seahawks at home here. The Jags are one and a half point home favorites. Uh, the Jaguars also implied for 24 and a half points. The overunder in this game, 47 a2. The over catching the most steam of any game on the entire slate. 45% of the sharp money is on the over in this game. So, they're expecting a lot of points. This is a game environment that has an average pace of play. Jacksonville's DVOA versus the Seahawks defense is actually a disadvantage, whereas Seahawks, the underdogs in this game, have the seventh highest DVOA advantage over Jacksonville. And I think if you're betting this game, the Seahawks money line stands out as a pretty good option to go after. If you're looking for starters here, Sam Darnold is absolutely in your lineup because of how he's playing. He's playing like an MVP candidate. Currently leads the league in yards per attempt. Third highest PFF passing grade of any quarterback in football. I probably would not mess around with Trevor Lawrence. I know he had a good game against the Chiefs, but this is a better defense that he's going up against. Travis ETN is going to be in your lineup. Of course, him and the Jaguars rushing offense have been pretty solid. Kenneth Walker versus the Jacksonville run defense. Again, pretty decent run defense, but Kenneth Walker getting enough work that you can get by. You could also probably flex Charbanet as well if you needed him. Uh Jackson Smith and Jigba every week starter, one of the best fantasy wide receivers out there and faces one of the best matchups in the league. They just traded away one of their starting corners for Greg Newsome from the Browns. And JSN is probably going to go nuclear in this game. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter versus the Seahawks secondary. Actually a pretty favorable matchup. And my bold prediction for this game is that this is the game we see it click for Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. I could see lots of yardage, lots of maybe big plays potentially. Maybe that makes Trevor Lawrence a little bit more of an easy start, but I do think it's going to be a lot of receptions and a lot of yards for the top two receivers of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Especially now that Brenton Strange is out for the next month on IR with a quad injury. I do think we're going to see a lot more of Hunter on offense. If you need a defense, I think Seahawks defense is in play. Although given the game environment, I probably wouldn't play them. And I do think both kickers, given the game environment, are in play as well.
Stat of the game here is the Jaguars are fifth in the NFL with 137 rushing yards per game. The Seahawks defense is third in rushing EPA per play allowed, fifth in success rate against the run and second in explosive run rate allowed. So, this is strength on strength. The Jaguars want to run the football. The Seahawks want you to throw the football. And like I said, we could see the Jaguars passing game forced to try and win them this game in this one.
Moving on to the next game, we have the Justin Herbert versus Tua Tong of Aloa Bull, which of course is a popular debate among Chargers versus Dolphins fans because they went pick backto back in the draft against each other in 2020. The Chargers are four-point road favorites in this game. Chargers implied for nearly 24 points. The overunder in the game environment kind of hoham, but we do have the Chargers DVOA as an offense with a nice advantage on the Dolphins defense. Uh start Justin Herbert. He is going to be in your lineup. He's a great play this week. even though he hasn't been great as of late, he definitely um is in a great spot here. The receivers are all going to be in your lineup. Lad McConi, Keenan Allen, Quinton Johnson. QJ is on the injury report right now with a hamstring injury. He hasn't practiced in full um all week and we'll see what happens in Friday's practice. And I would say he is at high risk for reinjury because we know how finicky hamstrings can be. But Lad McConi and Keenan Allen probably see a slight upgrade as a result. On the Dolphin side of things, you're going to be starting Devon A. You're going to be starting Jaylen Wadd. Even though those are difficult matchups for those two players, they are pretty much every week starters for most people in fantasy. To a tongue of Aaloa, don't let him see your lineup. He's not a very good player this week. The biggest source of intrigue really is the Chargers backfield because um on waiverss this week, they were the biggest additions between Hassan Haskins and Kamani Vidal. We've heard that both of them are going to be co-starters kind of thing from Greg Roman. The question is who's getting the valuable work? Who looks better? Is it a hot hand approach? My intuition tells me that Hassan Haskins will out carry Kamani Vidal, but Kamani Vidal will be more efficient. So, it might be a better week to start Hassan Haskins of the two because he'll probably get more work and maybe scores a goal line touchdown or something. But Kamani Vidal might be the big play guy, the receiving touches guy. And I could see both of these guys being top 36 running back plays on the weekend. And I have them ranked as such. So, if you have either of them, I do think they're viable plays. Just keep in mind if you have better options, I would really like to see how this backfield plays out first without Amari and Hampton out there. Uh Darren Waller has been great as of late, too. You could probably throw him out there as a good streamer. And both kickers um are definitely in play for you, but specifically Cameron Cameron Dicker, the better play of the two.
Stat of the game here is per ESPN, despite the Chargers being banged up as an offensive line, without Rashawn Slater, of course, for the year, without Joe Walt the last couple of weeks, and Mai Becketton being banged up, the Chargers are generating 3.0 0 yards before contact per attempt, which is fifth in the NFL. So, their offensive line, even though it's not been great in pass protection, has been getting pushed in the run game. The Dolphins are allowing 3.2 yards before contact, second in the NFL. So, this is um kind of strength on weakness here. They're a good run blocking line. The Dolphins can't stop the run for [ __ ] So, even though Hassan Haskins and Kamani Vidal are not Amari and Hampton, it is possible that they have great games in this one.
Um, so, moving on to the New England Patriots taking on the New Orleans Saints. The Patriots three and a half point road favorites in this one. The pace of play is the fastest on the entire slate. 45 1/2 point overunder. The over catching 21% of the steam as well. So this is a game environment that the Sharps seem to think is going to potentially shoot out. The New England DVOA advantage is fourth highest on the slate as well. And of course, New England's coming off of a high after just beating the Buffalo Bills in prime time in their own building. Drake May is going to be in your lineup. Of course, Stefon Diggs, the way he's playing is going to be in your lineup as a top 24 wide receiver. The two running backs, whether it's Raandre Stevenson, Trevon Henderson, are both flex plays for me. Of the two of them, you probably prefer Raandre Stevenson given the workload that he's been getting. But maybe this is the week we see Trevian Henderson take a little bit more of that work away. Maybe it's Copium. I'm not exactly sure. Alvin Chimera was kind of limited with like an ankle issue, and it is possible that he's currently being shopped uh to opposing NFL teams for, you know, some trade capital or whatever. But as long as he's out there, he is definitely a flex starter for you. But make sure you're stashing Kendra Miller in case he does get traded. Chris Olive is absolutely in your lineup. He is currently just absolutely dominating target shares. And Rasheed Jied if you need an upside flex is not a bad option either. Hunter Henry is going to be in your lineup as an every week starter at tight end. Jawan Johnson losing a little bit of reps to Foster Maro and Taesm Hill coming back from injury, but he is still probably a streamable option here. New England defense in play. New England kicker Nick Folk in play as well.
Stat of the game. Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs is quietly fifth in the NFL with an 85.6 PFF receiving grade and he is third in the NFL with 2.95 yards per route run. So the Saints as a defense, they've been quietly like a top seven coverage graded defense by PFF. But Stefon Diggs is starting to come into his own here and maybe we see that hot streak continue. Of course, back-to-back 100yard games, big revenge game against Buffalo on prime time. Does that continue? Does that slow down? I mean, the metrics say that it probably could continue based on how Stefon is playing at this point in time and of course how his quarterback is playing as well.
Um, Steelers taking on the Cleveland Browns here, the final game of the 1 p.m. window. The Steelers are 5 1/2 point favorites here. Overunder is the lowest on the entire slate at 38 and a half. That 15 out of 15 of course being a death nail to this game environment. The over catching the second most steam on the slate though, um, with 29% of the sharp money going to the over in this game. So maybe the the Sharps are just thinking that this game could have a lot of turnovers, short fields, touchdowns, that kind of thing. I tend to actually agree with the Sharps that I do think this one would go over 38 1/2. Um, both quarterbacks definitely not going to be starters for you. Aaron Rogers and Dylan Gabriel not good enough to be every week starters. Uh, Quinchon Judkins going to be in your lineup of course because he's getting all the volume. Jaylen Warren who looks healthy coming out of the buy is going to be a flex starter for you as well. DK Mechaf, who of course had the big game in Dublin before the buy, um against the Cleveland secondary, probably has another chance to break a long one, break a couple big plays. Um Jerry Judy has not been good as of late, but still Cedric Tilman is out. Isaiah Bond is really his only target competition among wide receivers. Of course, they've been using the tight ends a lot. Um but Jerry Judy a flex option if you need one. Both tight ends, David and Jooku, who had a touchdown last week. Harold Fannon, who had a touchdown last week. Both of them are in play against this Steelers defense. They're a little weaker over the middle. If you need a defense, the Pittsburgh defense has the easiest matchup on the entire slate against, you know, the young quarterback in his second career start. And then the kicker of the of the Steelers, Chris Boswell definitely in play as well.
Stat of the game here per PFF, Aaron Rogers has the lowest PFF grade when pressured at 28.8. Just 37% of the time he's pressured, he's completing a pass. So the Browns being the second best pass rush in football with a win rate of 67% could present a lot of problems for Aaron Rogers. And maybe that's why this game would hit the under is that both offenses just struggle mightily cuz I don't think the Browns offense is going to do a whole lot to to Pittsburgh's defense either.
Moving into the 4pm window and I like the way that the NFL set this up for me as a Buccaneers fan because there's two dumpster fire games and one really good game with the Buccaneers and the 49ers here. Um the Raiders and the Titans are the first game uh that kicks off and this is not a very exciting one. 41 and a half point overunder. over catching a bit of the steam, but the Raiders and Titans are two of the most milktoast operations in football that I don't really feel like watching, but of course I will because I'm a football fiend. You're going to be sitting both quarterbacks. Nobody's messing with Gino Smith or with Cameron Ward. Um Ashen Genty is in an absolute smash spot here. The 31st ranked run defense, the Tennessee Titans. Could end up being a really, really big game for him. Tony Pard. We'll see what the workload looks like now that Taj Spears has been reaclimated back to the offense, but he is still probably a flex starter for most of you guys because he is still getting the volume in this game environment. Maybe a little bit hoham. Uh start Jacobe Myers, flex him, you know, that kind of thing. And same goes for Trey Tucker as well. Neither of these guys are great options, but they are viable options nonetheless. And Brock Bowers looks like he's going to be out yet again. So Meyers and Trey Tucker see an upgrade as does Michael Mayer. If you guys need a tight end this week, streaming option Michael Mayer, who's been out for the last couple of games with a concussion, has been, you know, regarded as a very productive guy before. Of course, he was a great prospect coming out, but he kind of got alphaed by Brock Bowers, the best prospect of all time at the tight end position coming out. But Michael Mayer with the tight end position to himself in this game. Could have a nice day. So, if you're looking for a streamer, he is widely available across pretty much every league format right now. Calvin Ridley versus the Vegas Raiders. Um, Calvin Ridley finally had a good game last week. I suppose you could throw him out there and maybe Alec Manor as well, but again, this game environment not great. If you need a defense, the Las Vegas defense definitely in play here because they're at home. They're four and a half point favorites. And Daniel Carlson, the kicker, of course, also in play there as well.
The stat of the game, every team that the Tennessee Titans have played this year, has rushed for at least 130 rushing yards. Now, looking at some of the teams they've played, it's like, of course, the Colts were going to rush for a lot of yards against them, but the Texans, the Broncos, and the Michael Carter le Cardinals are three of those five teams that have rushed for at least 130 rushing yards. So, like I said, this seems like an absolute smash spot for Ashton Genty to have a similar game to what he put up against the Chicago Bears a couple weeks ago.
Uh, Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are 14point home favorites in this one, implied for nearly 30 themselves. Over under of 44 and a half, the over catching 29% of the steam. The pace of play is the second best on the slate. And Green Bay's DVOA advantage the second best behind the Rams this week on the slate. And Cincinnati's DVOA disadvantage, the worst on the entire slate out of the 30 teams active here. Um, you're starting all your Green Bay Packers. Jordan Love's going to be in your lineup. Josh Jacobs is going to be in your lineup. Tucker Craft is going to be in your lineup. Those guys are every week starters. If you need flex options, Matthew Golden, Romeo Dobs, both in play here because of course Dobs had the three touchdown game before the buy. Matthew Golden's usage has been kind of on the rise as of late. And of course, this is just such a great game environment for all of the Packers pass catchers in general. Uh Jamar Chase is an every week starter on the Bengals side of things. I don't think you have to start T. Higgins, but you probably are flexing him given where he was drafted and probably what kind of state he is on your team. Same goes for Chase Brown. um given the volume that he's getting, the targets he's getting out of the back field, you probably have to flex him. We'll see if Joe Flacco makes a difference here because Jake Browning, in my estimation, is pretty much just as good as Joe Flacco. So, I'm not overly excited about this deal, even as a T. Higgins manager in my home league. I'm not really excited about what this does for the offense. And this is a brutal matchup, too. Like, start the Green Bay defense, start Green Bay's kicker, Brandon Mcmanis, as well.
Stat of the game here. The Packers defense is third in pass rush win rate. And the Bengals offensive line is one of the worst in football. And they have a 40-year-old quarterback. Now, uh, this quarterback, um, Jake Browning, who was previously the starter for the Bengals, was dead last in EPA per play as a as a QB. He now sees an upgrade into the second last EPA Play quarterback at football. That is Joe Flacco. So, if I were in you guys' positions here, I would probably try and sell high on Chase Brown and T. Higgins if you can. Jamar's Jamar, so I'm not really worried about him, he'll produce no matter who the quarterback is, but Chase Brown and T. Higgins probably are looked upon more optimistically given this Joe Flacco edition. So, if you can tear up from those guys and get better options, get better offenses that you're going after, I would say that's probably a good idea.
Moving into the San Francisco 49ers taking on my Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucks are three-point home favorites. We don't look like we're going to have Brock Pery in this game, and it doesn't look like we're going to have Ricky Pieraw either. George KD not back from the IR. Brandon Iayuk still of course not out yet. So this is a um this is a depleted 49ers offense, but we know the 49ers can make it work with anybody whether it's M. Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Jake Tongus, they can still win games. They beat one of the better teams in the NFC last week on Thursday Night Football. But I do think this will be a come down to earth game. The overunder of this one is 47 and a half over catching a bit of the steam. The pace of play is pretty fast. Um you're going to start out your Buccaneers for the most part. Baker Mayfield's going to be out there. Acha Ibuka is going to be out there. Rashad White, who is filling in for Bucky Irving, who looks like he will still be out for this game, is going to be out there for you. Chris Godwin popped up on the injury report with like a fibula injury. So, I would say steer clear of him if you can, but if you do have to flex him, he's a fine option. Christian McAffrey is of course the best running back in fantasy right now, so he's an every week starter. And then if Jawan Jennings plays, cuz he's the one that actually could play of all the 49ers players. If he ends up playing, he's probably a top 36 wide receiver, top 30 wide receiver for me. If he ends up being out, then Kendrick Bourne kind of assumes that role as well as the top 30, top 36 wide receiver. And even if Jawan Jennings plays, I think Kendrick Bourne is like a top 45 wide receiver that you could reasonably throw out there. Him and M. Jones seem to have a nice connection as we said there. And then uh if you need streaming tight ends, I actually think both Jake Tongus and Kate Uton are usable streamers. They're like top 20 tight ends for me in my rankings. I you should have better options, but if you don't, for whatever reason, you have T.J. Hawinson on buy or something. I do think Tongus and Uton are not bad options. Uh stream Tampa Bay's defense because it is M. Jones. It is, you know, not a whole lot of offensive weapons there. And Tampa Bay is a a blitz happy defense. They sometimes get pick sixes and that kind of thing. So if you need a defense this week, I think Tampa Bay is in play. And of course, Chase Mclofflin is currently the kicker two in fantasy right now. So you're probably playing him as well.
Stat of the game here is the 49ers have had our number. They've won four straight games dating back to 2019 against Tampa Bay. But that was with Brock Pery and all their weapons healthy for the most part. So this might be the downto-earth game for Amecha Igbuka as well because Diamanor Lenor is ninth among quarterbacks in snaps per target allowed and allowing just 84 yards in his coverage on the season. So I know Ibuka has been absolutely exceptional in every single game so far this year. Hasn't had a single down week yet. this might be the week where he kind of has like a 11-point fantasy day or whatever because um he does have a tougher matchup especially um in the secondary there with Lenor in coverage.
Moving into Sunday Night Football and this is probably the game of the week over under 53 points. The Detroit Lions taking on the Kansas City Chiefs at home in Arrowhead here. The Chiefs are two and a half point home favorites which is kind of interesting given that the Lions are generally the better team at this point in time. The Chiefs have lost a couple of games they maybe shouldn't have. Um the over catching a nice amount of the steam here. Both offenses have top 15 DVOA advantages as an offense there. Patrick Mahomes is going to be in your lineup. Great start for him at home against the Lions defense that has given it up to opposing quarterbacks. Jared Goffin, a really tough matchup here. I like the overunder of the game. I like the game environment, but I don't like the matchup. It wouldn't shock me like if I had to bet this game, I would actually probably take the under because it wouldn't shock me if one or both of these offenses are not firing on all cylinders. For a 53 point overunder to hit, you kind of need both offenses cooking. And I could see one of these offenses kind of faltering a little bit, which is why I kind of like the under in this game. But nonetheless, given the game environment, you probably need to at least have Jared Goff as a top 15 quarterback play. But I do think guys like Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold are probably better options specifically this week. Jir Gibbs, David Montgomery, Ammonra St. Brown, Sam Laapora, those guys are every week starters for you on the Lions side of things. Xavier Worthy popped up on the injury report again with that like shoulder ankle issue that we saw coming into Monday Night Football. Got him downgraded to questionable last week. Now, I've heard some beat reporters for the Chiefs say that it was precautionary uh Wednesday and Thursday's practices were lighter because they played on Monday. So, we'll have to wait and see what Friday today's practice report looks like because if Worthy is upgraded to full, then there's probably no issues. If he is not upgraded to full, however, that puts Hollywood Brown and even Taekquin Thornton in flex territory. If he plays, I'm not probably messing with either of those guys, but if they are, if Xavier Worthy is out for this game, then you could probably throw out Hollywood Brown and maybe even Taekquin Thornton as well. And of course, Travis Kelce is going to be in your lineup. This will be the last game without Rasheed Rice for the Kansas City Chiefs, so they better make it count. They better probably win because um the best is yet to come, I would imagine, from the Chiefs offense for the rest of the season. And then the running back position for the Chiefs. I mean, if you need to flex Pacheco or Hunt, you could, but I would rather not if I were in your position. and Jameson Williams, same thing. He just has not been good at all this year at generating big plays. So, probably wouldn't say he's in a must start, but given the game environment, you could definitely throw him out there. And then, both kickers are definitely in play given this game environment as well.
Stat of the game per ESPN, Patrick Mahomes has never beaten Jared Goff. Not of any quarterback that Patrick Mahomes has played multiple times in his career. Jared Goff is the only one he's never won against. And again, remember what I said at the beginning of this, uh, the Lions are the better team right now. So, it wouldn't shock me if this is an upset special if you guys are betting this game. I like the Lions plus two and a half here. So, um definitely an interesting matchup between those two teams.
Bills Falcons, the first of the Monday night kickoffs. This one's a 7 Eastern kickoff and then the second one kind of like 8 Eastern or 8:15 Eastern or whatever. U Buffalo Bills taking on the Atlanta Falcons. They're four and a half point road favorites against the Falcons who are coming off of a buy over under of 49 and a half points. So, a lot of points expected. The Bills are implied for 27. Falcons implied for 22 and a half. Both offenses have top 18 matchups against the opposing defense. You're of course starting the regular cast of characters, that being Josh Allen, James Cook, Drake London, and Bejan Robinson. But I also do think given the overunder of this game, you could throw Daltton Concaid out there. You could throw Kyle Pittz out there, Khalil Shakir out there. Probably Keon Coleman out there as well. And um if you were really desperate at running back, I would even consider putting Tyler Algier out there potentially. Uh Michael Penn if you need a streaming quarterback is not a bad option given the game environment here. The fact that the Falcons are at home too is uh they've played a lot better at home this year than they've played on the road. So I do think it is possible that the Falcons actually put up a decent fight here. And if I were betting this game, I think I like them to cover the four and a half points even if they don't end up winning the game ultimately. So uh
Stat of the game here is per ESPN, the Falcons are second in the NFL in motion rate at 53% of their plays having motion on it. The Bills are third worst in the NFL with a 0.23 23 EPA per played allowed versus motion. So, this is a um schematic thing. If they use a lot of motion, this game kind of screams. Bejon Robinson breaks a long reception. Drake London is able to win on play action plays, that kind of thing. So, um definitely a concerning matchup for the Bills defense. Drake London is expected to see shadow coverage from Christian Benford as well, who's been pretty good this year. So, definitely an interesting matchup. I uh I'm actually really excited to watch that one on Monday night.
Commanders and Bears. Also a very uh interesting match up here. The Commanders are four and a half point home favorites. 49 and a half again overunder. So both of these games bordering on a 50point overunder on Monday Night Football. So if you're up on Sunday and you have players going on Monday on your opposing team, maybe be a little bit worried given the game environments that we have here. Pace of play is the fourth highest on the slate. Washington's DVOA as an offense definitely a big advantage over Chicago's defense. And remember that DVOA number is being skewed by some Marcus Mariota games as well. So um a healthy Jaden Daniels um presumably even healthier than he was before, is going to be probably in a great spot here. You're going to be starting Jaden Daniels every week starter at quarterback. You're going to be starting Bill Crosky Merritt at this point. He's kind of an every week starter at running back. You're going to be starting Romo Dunes who of course is an every week starter at wide receiver. DJ Moore is in flex territory as is DeAndre Swift given the workload that he's getting. On the commander side of things, you also have Debo Samuel who will again be without Terry Mcccluren who doesn't look like he's ready to come back for this game. He's probably going to be ruled out. So Debo top what eight receiver in fantasy this year. He's been absolutely excellent so far to start this season. So Debo Samuel is a great play. I think Zack Z is a streamable option this week as well. And if you need a quarterback, Caleb Williams is a very good start in this game. This is actually the stat of the game here is this is the first Monday Night Football matchup ever with the first pick and the second pick from the same draft class going up against each other. And the Bears uh rank dead last in yards after contact allowed per carry to opposing running backs. And if I check my notes here, Bill leads the position in the NFL right now in yards after contact per attempt. So this is a Bill game. I I've been, you know, a Bill non-believer. Um but I might be made a fool in this matchup because Bill could have a monster game in this one.
Let's get into the streamers. Streaming tight ends. Mason Taylor, Michael Mayer, of course, Brock Bower is probably going to be out for this game. Michael Mayer, great streamer. Zack Z versus the Chicago Bears. I just made reference to Harold Fannon against the Pittsburgh Steelers, also a very good option. And then Evan Ingram, I know he's not getting the snaps, but he has the best matchup of any tight end on the week. So, I think he is in play as well. Streaming quarterback, Sam Darnold, the cream of the crop in my opinion. And uh same with Matthew Stafford, but Matthew Stafford is very highly rostered, so probably not available in most of your leagues. the more realistic streamers if you need one. Bryce Young definitely the best option of the widely available guys. Michael Pennock's a decent option and Trevor Lawrence. Again, I'd lean towards sitting Lawrence, but if you do believe in the Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter breakout game and kind of what the Seahawks looked like against the Bucks last week. It definitely could end up being a pretty good matchup for Lawrence. Monitor the injury report of the Seahawks defense because against the Bucks last week, they were down a couple secondary pieces and that resulted in their defense kind of falling apart there.
So, uh, top 10 defenses on the week. Green Bay Packers versus the Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Cleveland Browns. Um, Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore with no Lamar Jackson. Denver Broncos against the Jets because they're the Jets. Indianapolis versus Arizona potentially with no Kyler Murray. I'd probably even bump them up to number three if Kyler Murray is in fact ruled out. Las Vegas Raiders versus the Tennessee Titans. Again, four and a half point home favorites. Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints to round out my top 10. And then my top 10 kickers, Brandon Aubrey, Chase Mclofflin, Cameron Dicker, Matt Prader, Harrison Bucker, my top five, Will Lutz, Jason Myers, Joshua Cardi, Jake Bates, and Matt Gay, my six through 10.
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