Transcription
The one country that has studied the collapse of the Soviet Union more carefully than any country in the world is China. Because China knows that dream of the United States is to make China the second Soviet Union that collapses. So how does China prevent a collapse? The only thing you must know about Donald Trump is that he can do anything because when when Donald Trump wakes up actually he cannot predict what he's going to do in the rest of the day.
What you just saw was a clip from an interview in June 2024 with the renowned Singaporean thinker Keshor Makbubani. In that interview, he put forward a highly subversive argument that China has completely mastered the instruction manual for this century's great power contest with the United States. More than a year has passed, and the trajectory of world events seems to be proving his judgment correct. In the content that follows, we will dive deep into Makubani's brilliant analysis. You will hear him reveal how did China formulate a long-term national strategy that is specifically designed to counter America's containment efforts and is almost impossible to break? What fundamental incurable social weakness exists within the United States that puts it at a natural disadvantage in its competition with China? And why was America's current China policy doomed to fail from the very beginning? This is a deep dissection of why America is losing this competition. Let's continue.
And in response to your specific question, does China want to become number one? The answer is yes and no. Why do I say yes and no? Yes, because they want to have the world's largest economy. because they know at the end of the day what will protect China is having the largest economy in the world but at the same time the Chinese don't have the same ambition that United States does to run the world but United States as you know is present in all corners of the world intervening in this issue intervening in that issue taking care of this problem taking care of that problem the Chinese view is that we are 1.4 four billion people. We have enough problems at home. We will take care of our problems. The world will take care of itself. So in that sense, I don't think the Chinese have a desire to step into the shoes of the United States in terms of its global uh uh involvement in various issues. So in that sense, I think it is actually possible. Therefore, and here the reason I'm making these suggestions is that I'm looking for ways and means of creating a world where United States and China can live together in peace without having going their loggerheads with each other.
Uh so you just said like the United States doesn't has any strategy regarding China. Let's go to the other side. How about the Chinese? Do they have a grand strategy in dealing with the US? Well, the the the uh as the weaker party uh if they didn't have a strategy, they'd be in deep trouble. I think out of necessity, they have to have a strategy and they do have one. So, for example, uh they ask themselves the obvious question, why did United States successfully defeat the Soviet Union? Why? And they I must say the one country that has studied the collapse of the Soviet Union more carefully than any country in the world is China. Because China knows that dream of the United States is to make China the second Soviet Union that collapses. So how does China prevent a collapse? First point, the Soviet Union didn't collapse because of external pressures. It collapsed because of internal weaknesses. And so, China realizes to make sure I survive, I must have a very strong dynamic economy and a strong dynamic society. And by the way, there was a very famous American thinker George Kennan who said way back in 1949 very presently he said at the end of the day the outcome of the contest between United States and Soviet Union will depend on not on our weapons and you know troops and all that. It'll depend on which society has got greater spiritual vibrancy inside stronger and so United States society was far more dynamic than Soviet Union society. United States thrive Soviet Union collapse. So the Chinese know that the first priority is to make sure your economy is strong and your society is strong, which is why they're massively educating their people and growing their economy so that they don't become a second Soviet Union. The second thing the Chinese learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union was that the United States succeeded because it managed to get a lot of the neighbors of the Soviet Union to join the containment policy everywhere. Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, right? Both ends of the Soviet Union. So what did the Chinese do? The Chinese launched a preemptive strike against a containment policy by making sure that its neighbors depended on the Chinese economy. I give you a simple example. You know, Singapore is part of Southeast Asia and we are part of an organization called ASEAN and ASEAN started as a pro-american organization. Okay. In fact, when ASEAN was created on August 8th, 1967, both the Soviet Union and China denounced the creation of ASEAN as a pro-American organization. Right? And it's true ASEAN was pro-American, pro- Western. And what was stunning was that even though AEAN was pro-American, pro- Western and we had longer dialogues with United States, European Union, Australia, Japan, everybody, none of our Western friends proposed a free trade agreement to ASEAN. The first country to propose a free trade agreement to Assean was China in 2001. And the impact of that China ASEAN agreement was phenomenal because in the year 2000 and the that's when the when China proposed the free trade agreement ASEAN's trade with United States was 135 billion and our trade with China was only 40 billion. So US trade was you know more than three and a half times what uh uh China's trade with ASEAN was. But as a result of the free trade agreement by 2022 even though ASEAN's trade with United States has gone from 135 to 450 500 billion an increase of over three times China's trade with ASEAN went from 40 billion to $975 billion almost a trillion dollars the world's largest trading relationship in 2022. So that was that was then there's no way a can join a containment policy against his largest trading partner right it's crazy so that's how that's that's part of the Chinese strategy and I mentioned a third one very quickly you take the belt and road initiative that the China has launched building infrastructure in all corners of the world what does that mean every country in the world says oh this infrastructure is I need Chinese fast trains. I need Chinese highways. And then would you join a containment policy? You won't. So that it shows you that they have systematically worked out a grand strategy. But at the same time, I can tell you that the Chinese also have a lot of respect for the United States. They understand that United States as a power is a remarkable power. And so their challenge is even with all this strategy they cannot underestimate what the United States can eventually do.
It's >> interesting. Uh professor uh you have mentioned before like and even we were having a discussion like earlier today that the US has 10 years to counter the rise of China.
>> Why specifically 10 years?
>> Well, I think um it's all a matter of mathematics. Mhm. >> And if the Chinese economy keeps growing right at 5% a year over 10 years and you know you you you I don't have the maths off the top of my head even if it doesn't overtake it comes very very close and the bigger China gets the harder it is to stop it and it's quite clear that the Chinese have been quite ingenious in creating a long-term manufacturing strategy for China. And that manufacturing capability of China is now indispensable to the rest of the world. I mean all of you if you open your kitchen cupboards or whatever it is take out the products see how many of the components in any of the products came from China just check you'll be amazed this is not by accident China wants to create deep dependence on China's manufacturing sector and you know incidentally even five 10 years ago 5 years ago. If you had asked anybody, could China ever join the competition in for cars? He would say, "No way. The Germans are so far ahead. Japanese are so far ahead. Koreans are far ahead. Even the Americans are far ahead." But you know what? Today the Chinese have started from scratch created an electric vehicle EV industry that is now frightening the pans of all car makers all over the world because you the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem on EVs is so amazing.
>> right and even Elon Musk at first dismissed it now he wouldn't dare to dismiss it. But did this EV uh challenge from China emerge by accident? No. It is part of the long-term strategy, right? And 5 years from now, all over the world, you see Chinese EVs. So, as the world transforms and becomes more dependent on China, it narrows the options for the United States. I mean quite naturally which is why there is in Washington DC a very strong sense of urgency and by the way you know if you look at what some of the people who uh some of the Americans I can give you names uh Robert Lighheiser Matt Potinger they'll be coming back to advise uh Trump they they are the ones who saying hurry up hurry up we got to act fast.
>> so the sense of urgency in Washington DC is very real.
>> And so this lead me to to the next question like what are the measures that the US could take in in order to counter the rise of China like and is this like measures going to differ from Biden to Trump? M well I think the best answer to your question, what should the United States do was given by um George Cannon in the remark I quoted earlier in 1949 where he said at the end of the day the outcome of the contest will depend on which country's domestic society is stronger. And here the the challenge for the United States today sadly is that it has become a deeply divided society. Right? And in my book as you know has China won in chapter 7 I provide lots of empirical data but taken from American scholars by the way you know people like Paul Vulker former head of the Fed uh Joe Stiglas the Nobel laurate or Martin Wolf of Financial Times they all given data to show how United States has essentially become a putoaucracy. What is a putoaucracy? A putoaucracy is a society where public policy decisions are made not to benefit the majority at the bottom but the top 1% 2%. That's what and by the way this whatever I'm saying is not original from me. American scholars have saying all this. I'm just repeating what American scholars are saying. And the reason why it looks as though Trump is going to get elected is that the bottom 50% in America, the data shows this, haven't seen an improvement in their standard of living for 30, 40 years. In fact, the American middle class has diminished, you know, significantly. So therefore, if the United States wants to win the contest against China, it should rebuild the strength of his domestic society. That should be his priority because at the end of the day, you you know, like in any uh athletic contest, right? You're better off trying to win by running faster rather than trying to kneecap your opponent. And that will be the best thing that United States can do. So but but re changing United States society and taking care of plutoaucracy is going to be a major challenge and and that that is what that would be that has to be the answer of the United States.
>> That's very informative. Talking about Trump, um given his previous policies in which he focused like more on reducing overseas commitments, to what extent do you think he might seek to conclude a deal with China where this deal would involve ensuring that China beers part of the security burdens in the Middle East specific specifically? I mean like
>> well I think that's that's I think the important thing to tell you about Trump is that anything is possible. I mean, for example, I mean, to use another example, let me go switch for one second to uh Ukraine. Trump could either say, I I'm going to go all the way. I'm going to defeat Putin, then you'll pump up resources and, you know, go full scale ahead into Ukraine. Or he could do the exact opposite. He could say, "This war is of no interest to me that the Europeans fight in this war. I'm walking away. I want to make and his his slogan is MAGA make America great again. So he's not interested in the Ukraine war and as you know for some strange reason he's got this particular dislike for Ukraine. I don't know why that's a complicated story and and he has also got a strange dislike for the Europeans.
>> And I asked an American friend of mine why why does he like the European dislike the Europeans? And my friend gave me a very profound answer. He said, "All his life, Donald Trump wanted to get accepted by society, especially elite American society. Even though he's very wealthy, he was never accepted. He was an outsider. So when you're an outsider, you develop this psychological, you know, angst and anger. So he has this anger against the American establishment. And in some ways the Europeans also personify, you know, the old rich, the establishment. The Europeans look at him with disdain. So he said, "Okay, now I'll teach you who's boss." Right? So there is a very complicated relationship within Trump and the Europeans. So so on Ukraine he could do either thing and similarly on China he could do either way. But I think on China Donald Trump has bought the the main thesis that the United States cannot allow China to become number one. So, he might possibly make a deal, but I think the Chinese are not counting on it. The Chinese have to get ready for a more aggressive uh president. But again, having said that, the only thing you must know about Donald Trump is that he can do anything. Because when when Donald Trump wakes up actually he cannot predict what he's going to do in the rest of the day.
>> He may change his mind in the course of the day.
>> Thank you professor. And uh before we conclude professor please you have one one minute only.
>> Yeah
>> if you have any final thoughts or insights only one minute.
>> So um in one minute I can promise you that you will not be bored in the next 10 years. The US China contest will accelerate and get ready you'll watch the greatest show in human history. What we have just revisited was this extraordinary dialogue which took place on the eve of the Trump era's return. More than a year has given us a clear view of how the underlying logic of the strategic game as described by Mahbubani is now playing out step by step. He laid out several key points for us. First, he revealed China's core strategy. Strengthen yourself internally and build friendships externally. China learned a profound lesson from the collapse of the Soviet Union. The health of its own economy and society is far more important than any external confrontation. At the same time, by building deep economic ties with all its neighbors, it has systematically dismantled the foundation of America's containment strategy. Second, he pointed out America's fundamental weakness, a bureaucratic society that serves the 1%. When the bottom 50% of a country's population sees no improvement in their standard of living for 30 to 40 years, it loses the internal cohesion and will to engage in a long-term great power competition. Third, he analyzed Trump's psychological dilemma. He portrays Trump as an outsider who forever craves acceptance from the elite but is forever denied it. This psychology profoundly affects his decision-making, making it difficult for him to formulate a coherent long-term strategy. This conversation is so thoughtprovoking because it puts forward a profound idea. In this century long contest, China's victory may not require defeating America. It may only need to ensure that it continues to do the right things and then quietly wait for America to make mistakes due to its own internal contradictions. After hearing his analysis, we are compelled to ask, do you agree with Mahubani's core argument? Are the failures of America's China policy rooted in external factors or internal ones? Can a nation with such deep internal divisions truly muster the capacity to win a geopolitical competition that requires a national effort and will last for decades? And after witnessing this historical test that has played out over the past year, how can we more profoundly understand this most important geopolitical contest that will define our century? If you found this episode valuable, please like, comment, share, and subscribe to our channel. Thank you for watching.