Transcription
Good morning, everybody. Sorry I'm late. Let's just get to it, and we'll go to, uh, Rocket Labs. I'll give you the fancy opening while I set up the bonding, and then we're good to go. I get some tunes. US one of the first. Thought I had it. There it is. All right. Oh, that's enough. It's too much. Um, good morning. You have a lot going on. I'm going to go through the, let's do it this way. Uh, open anyway, and then we'll go to here, and then what we'll do is we'll start with the ES, and then we'll drill into this. Um, yeah, you're going to have a pretty wild day, to say the least. So, let's clean all this off and try to take a look at what really transpired here.
So, we undercut our level, and then from there, we ripped, and now you can see, obviously, what we're getting this morning. Um, I just want to start with the basics, and then we'll go from there. You still have a 1222 cross, whether we get through it right away. So far, we've been rejecting up here. So, 7477 is going to be an area that we're going to want to watch. Uh, a lot of people are leaning towards, "Oh, this is going to be the end," uh, because, you know, now we're going to have all this liquidity with SpaceX. Um, it looks to me like you're pretty oversubscribed, and it looks to me like they're going to be able to eat it all up. So, it doesn't look like, uh, it's going to be as big of an issue as we think it's going to be. Um, but you still have this cross that's going to happen here, and you have to get through that cross. So, it's not, it's not great when you have these crosses. You know, they are an issue, um, until they're not an issue, and you kind of have to pay attention to them. So, you know, you don't want to pretend that it's not an issue because it very well might be.
So, from my perspective, um, I want to understand that it's there. I want to understand that, yeah, it can be an issue, but from a trading standpoint today, I'm not really sure how much it's going to be a problem. Left head, right shoulder, uh, you can see your neckline's right here. You could measure the move up, and you pretty much got an inverse head and shoulders pattern there. Um, you know, can you get up to 7500? Probably. You know, it really depends once this thing opens how they digest it. Uh, how much tech do they sell to buy SpaceX? Um, you know, there's two ways to look at this. They aren't getting what they thought they were going to get, so are they going to sell the other stuff to buy it in the open market? That's really the question. And I don't have an answer to that. I know that I'm not doing that. Uh, but I don't know if someone wants an allocation towards it and they're not getting what they thought they were going to get because of the way they gave it to retail, then, yeah, it's going to be a thing. Left head, right, um, and then you kind of see how this is playing out, and I think that's really very important.
So, um, if we take a look at those levels, you always want to watch that with allocations. Like, if you're getting everything you ask for, you don't want it. Um, you should always like complain how much that you're getting and not getting of the allocation. But, uh, to me, up, down, up, right. So, you're kind of getting some sense of how this is going to play out. Go to a five, and I think that that's really going to be the cat's pajamas today. Like, people are really going to have to really figure that part of this out. Like, "Hey, how bad does this really get?" And, um, you know, today, how bad does it get? I'm not so sure. I think a lot of it's going to be on the SpaceX and what they do. 7341, um, 7376, and then you can kind of see that level right in here, 7375. So, you have some areas in here that are of some concern, but let's just drop that there like it's hot. But I don't think that you have like a lot of stuff you really have to concern yourself with. Um, selling down a little bit, but what do you do? You came back, and you already have a four-hour right divergence right here, you know? So, here's the low, here's the low, here's the low, here's the low, and then here's the high, right? So, and now you've already made a higher high on it, and you're not even over it yet. So, you know, I tend to not, um, play with these.
So, I'll give you an example of this. Like, here is the last one that you really had, and that was March in here, March 31st. And I'll get into this in Saturday's video, but does that mean you're going to go straight up today? No, it doesn't. Does that mean you can't pull back? No, you can. But you really have to think about it now that you're probably between like here and here. Uh, and I really think that you're in like a 2% trading range until we see differently, until we start actually closing under this. Now, I think you're kind of in a trading range of this huge bar, right? And this bar becomes the control bar. Uh, until we figure out what the hell's going on here, and you're at the high end of that control bar. So, that means you can come down, bonk around, whatever. Uh, but that's really how I see it today. And I definitely think that's something to pay attention to. So, I certainly will be paying attention to that today. Um, but I, you know, I don't really play with these. Like, if I start getting divergences like this, I've been around, been around way too long, way too long. Um, and I'm not going to, I don't screw with those. Like, I'm not going to bet against that being a bottom. Uh, that hasn't worked out well for me in the past. Uh, betting against what I see with my own eyes.
So, here we are, left, and then we can go here, and then we go to the right. We can see the divergence, and we can see the low, and then we can see the lower low. So, you can go against them if you want. You can let me know how that goes in three months. Um, I can just save you a bunch of time. I could write a book. It's not going to go well, right? That book by Arte. It didn't go well. So, if we just look at that here, right? Look at it. So, I mean, I would just tell you to go through the chart. Okay, if you could just work with me. Like, I don't know why this thing has to fight me. I sound so grumpy, right? I got grumpy yesterday. Like, really grumpy. Like, really annoyed. Um, I think it's like a sense of entitlement or something. Like, I got really annoyed. I don't know. I guess it happens. People get annoyed, right, Sam? Look at them. I'm not saying you're going to go out and take out the highs, but you don't really want to mess with these when you see them. It's pretty rare to get something like that and then not wind up having some kind of bounce out of it. Like, it's not very common for that to happen, right? I'm going back to 25, 26, just showing you where they are so you can see how it really works. And I'm not even talking about like they don't all have to do it, but like, my God, if you get a three, like, you know, what are you waiting for? You can even see in here like they all aren't going to work. You know, if I get winning in liberation again, and he's like, "Hey, we're going to tax every nation 300% if they want to sell a falafel," then, well, it's going to be a problem, right? But we don't have that right now.
So, you know, maybe over the weekend. So, um, if we take a look at this now, what I'll do is clean all that off. And then what we'll do is we'll drop this to about this. And then we can just kind of understand that, hey, this was the big drop, and this is where we were. And so that's kind of our range, right? Okay. So if we took that range and then we did like the simple things and just took like the, this being levels. All right. You know what time it is? Time for more caffeine. So, we broke down here, so we can get to that 618, which is the perfect measure. Cool. Um, you know, what other things do I think that are important to get out there? Um, I don't know that you're going to break 700 again on the Qs. Maybe you're going to need an event. Now, if you come in this weekend, and you know that this treaty or whatever the heck it is starts blowing up, and we don't have world peace, well, you know, you could have a problem there. You know, that could be an issue. Yeah. If we had world peace, and like now we don't have world peace. Yeah, that could be a real pickle. So, it's definitely, it's definitely on the radar. Sure. So, I would look at that as well and say, "Yeah, that could be a problem." Um, that's definitely something that we're going to want to pay attention to for sure. To show. So, let's watch how that goes. And, uh, and we'll see. What else do I think is super important? We don't have to go through the Qs and all that. Um, names you guys are going to ask about, like UFO, whenever you're ready. I am. Um, if we take a look at this here, you know, you're holding. Everyone's going to get kind of giddy today with this. Rocket Labs got added to the, uh, NASDAQ 100 last night. Uh, you have 21% short interest. You should be asking about that. Um, and then of course, what was the other one? NBIS. I think you're short, like, I think the float is like 21, 22%. Uh, you have a perfect undercut here, and then you held. You actually came back to the Leopold level. Um, and yeah, I don't know. I think you're going to hold on that. I think it's 21 or 22%. And then what else is there that was super interesting, uh, to go over last night? Oh, Adobe CFO left. Um, you know, 199. I'm not really shocked by that. I had a short on. I put on last night. Um, and then I just closed it because I just wanted to. I didn't feel like dealing with this this morning. Uh, but this was not a great quarter, and I think you're starting to see that, like, hey, if these things aren't great, this is what you're going to get. But I don't know that there's a tremendous amount, you know, to do with it. Um, got to be careful of these short squeezes on days like today. I, I'm leaning towards, I think a lot of people are going to do quite well buying like DRAM today and memory today because no one's paying attention to it. Everyone's like, "Oh, I gotta get into the, you know, I got to get into as I got to get into, uh, UFO, or I got to get into, you know, Rocket Labs." Um, and that's, you know, I mean, from a day perspective, it makes a lot of sense. It does make a lot of sense. So, you know, we'll see what happens here. But, um, you always want to look and see how oversubscribed this stuff is, if it's not, and kind of go from there. And I think that's really important.
So, what else? That's pretty much it. That's what I have. Uh, what else do we have out there? Let's go take a look at this and make sure that I'm right about a couple things. Uh, today, I'll say the same thing I said in the community. It's not for the weak. Um, if you are going to have a real tough time here, um, trading, like if you get too emotional, just take the day off because, like, today's going to be wild. Um, yeah, 740700. So, I don't really see much to do there. And then Spy. Take a look at that. And that actually got tighter. So, that's kind of interesting. Um, they actually raised the put wall there. So, that's kind of interesting. 750, 730. H. Okay, there it is. Uh, Iran state, Iran state TV says straight to Hummosis shut down again. All shipping is suspended. Okay. So, I don't know. Seems like, uh, seems like a pickle. You know, you have a peace deal that has no peace. Um, and I really think that that's going to be a real issue here. So, and that could be a problem over the weekend, too, like a big problem because everybody bought because of that. So, uh, let's get to these questions, bros. Yeah, you know, I haven't had time to really get into that, John. I'm glad you brought it up because I did forget about it. Um, I always like this company. I don't own it. Maybe I just like it because they sell coffee. Um, but I like this one, and I like Black Rifle, which is usually where I wind up buying all my coffee from. Although, I just bought some from, um, 48 Parallel. I think they're in Canada. Um, look at it. Yeah. I mean, it's pretty perfect. And I guess earnings were okay. But you got a lot of buying coming in there. Um, I don't know. I don't know that I'd want to play that until I got throw. BRCC was the other one I used to buy. I don't know what happened to them. I guess nothing good. Um, this is like when they went. I guess they just can't get it together. But what else was in that space? There was another one that was in that space I did well with. I forget what it was. It wasn't Starbucks. It was something else. It'll come to me. Um, I don't know. I don't know that you really have to like rush into that. Maybe if, like, he had a huge spike in volume and it's interesting, John, but I don't know. I don't know if that's the one I have to get involved with.
These are super interesting. Pardon me. Uh, these are super interesting to me because of the way that these weeklies are set up. If I go here, you know, there's your 200-week moving average. Uh, and you held it. So, that's always an area of interest to me when these things get back down to there. Man, this thing, we did so well with this trade. And look at that. And then they just all of a sudden, I remember this. Nobody thought that that was going to go through. I remember how angry everybody was at the, uh, Treasury Secretary. God, they were so wrong. Anyway, um, you can see your W right here. You can see how they're setting up to break out. I, I, I'd like to know why everybody has to be in these banks all of a sudden. I don't know the news yet. I don't know if he passed something, but GG's the other one. You can see that that's breaking out, huge volume. Uh, I might want to look at these this morning before I get involved, before the morning actually opens, because they actually look like they're just going to rip everybody's face off. So, they're definitely of, uh, definitely of interest to me. And, yeah, I definitely want to pay attention to that. So, you know, let's, we'll see how this goes. But that's really my sense of this. Um, you know, we really want to just watch all this. But across the board, you know, maybe, maybe because of what's going on with, um, any more of that left? No, that was really good today. I think a lot of what's going on is, you know, let's just look up, see if we can find out what the hell the news is. Uh, it looks to me like, okay. All right. So, in mid-day, drunk and Miller, of course, he did. In mid-day, drunk and Miller started buying these things again. Why Korea ETF sees record monthly outflows? Well, duh. Leads return back into Argentinian stocks. All right, let me see if it tells you why a returning. If they're coming out flows into Argentina. Country's main outlet for equities are up. It's hardly anything. Uh, could reclassify the fund flows into the MCIS Argentina main outlet for equities are up on market optimism that MSCI could reclassify the fund during a June review. An upgrade could trigger an automatic inflow into Argentinian assets from passive funds that track frontier or emerging markets. That makes up some of the 192 million in outflows that have been driven by uncertainty. Oh, I got it. I got it. Okay. So, if that happens, then they think they're going to see inflows into those markets. I got it. I guess it'd be interesting. Uh, the market's expecting the upgrade. Non-passive funds are get trying to get ahead of it before the passive funds come into it. So, what we'd have to find out, John, is when is that going to happen? So, let's just put it out there in the community, and then they'll tell me because they all be on top of it. When is MSCI going to reclassify Argentina? Does anybody have that date? Yay. I love when we can do stuff together. Uh, that's what's doing it, John. So, let's take a look at that. Um, JP Morgan's really been dragging, hasn't it? And I don't know that it's something that I have to rush into. I don't really know my impetus there to get involved in these. The one that makes the most sense to me is City Group. Um, just because it's, it was trading at such a discount for so long, and it looks like people's just started to realize it. I never really understood why it was just under book value for so damn long, man. Um, that's the one that makes the most sense to me. But that, and if Bank of America can ever figure it out, but they always have issues. I don't know that I would be into the, uh, the JP Morgan. I don't know. I'm not really feeling that. It doesn't mean I'm right. I'm just not feeling it. John, hello. Yeah, I don't think you have peace. I think you have him with a Twitter account. Um, and I think that Iran likes saying it because they go out there and buy calls and then they buy puts. Like, I mean, it's pretty obvious that they're just manipulating the hell out of the market. Um, and I just think that, you know, if you go on the premise like, if you go on the premise like, "Oh, we're going to take Car Island, we're going to do this, we're going to do that." Like, as soon as I saw that, I'm like, "Oh God, my shorts are screwed because they're just going to," um, Oh, right on time. White House releases more records on UFO sightings like right as the SpaceX IPO comes out. You can't make this up. Um, so for me, like looking at stuff like this, I think that you really just kind of want to let this stuff play out. I, I don't know. I, I don't think you want to go too nuts today, man. 98 degrees forecast today. 98 North Carolina. Jesus. I think that it's really interesting that Western Digital is converting their stock or SanDisk is converting some of their stock in Western Digital. I find that super interesting. Um, I don't think there's really much to do there with that. I fully expect this thing to bunk around. I really like how they're taking the market down this morning and scaring people. Uh, I really like that a lot. So, um, I expect a very volatile market today. Very volatile. I don't know. I don't know that you want to look at this stuff until you really see the open and see it settle in. Uh, it's pretty clear, you know, that you're getting exactly what you thought you'd get, you know, with the straits closed, and then the straits going to be open, and we'll tell you what's going on and all that. So, like that's exactly what you're getting right now. Like, yeah, the straits not open because we say so. It's just, it's going to get to the point where they're going to force his hand. And, um, I don't think they fully get that. Maybe they do. I don't know. Um, but they're going to get to a point where they force his hand where he's going to have to act if they don't, if this keeps up. Like, he's not going to have a choice. Um, I think they just feel like they're going to outweigh him into midterms is really what I think. And they're just going to keep playing games, and eventually, you know, he says one thing, and then it, it's kind of crazy, right? Like, "Oh, we have a deal," and then, you know, it's literally six hours later, 12 hours later, they're saying, "Yep, straits shut down again." And so, this is what you have right now. And there's nothing you can do about it. The only thing that I can say is that like every time they say they shut it down, right, then the market's doing this, right? You're down like 1% since they said that. So if you go out there and you tend to buy when they say that we're they're shutting everything down, um, you tend to do pretty well. And then you wait a couple days, and then he'll come out and tweet that everything's good, and then it all runs up, and then it runs back down. Like, just the cycle. I don't know that you want to be out here like just buying this stuff until you really see like how it settles, right? Because you could just be out here buying something and thinking that you're fine. Now, if you're okay with the volatility, that's a different story. If you're okay with the volatility and you start closing up above like the 22, like you did, and you're like, "Yeah, I'm fine with it as long as it doesn't break 480," that's a different trade, right? But if you're out here saying, "I'm just going to swing for the fences." And, you know, like, you never know what you're going to get with this stuff. So, I guess if the thing about it for me is like for anybody that's asking me like, "Oh, what do you think of this or what do you think of that?" Like the very first thing I would do is put this on every chart to understand how you should be looking at your stops. Just go grab an ATR and go look at that, right? And what you'll see is even though you're at the same area here to where you are here, this is why people keep getting stopped out and they don't realize it. Like this, if you take one thing from this video, take this. So, like, see how you're at the same area. See here. All right. So, see how this is 30. See how this is 36. So, the average true range, or the volatility of that name, has gone up by 20%. And you're at the same price. And people have no idea why they keep getting stopped out of their trades over and over and over and over again. Right? Like, if you're in the room, you're the community, you've heard me like yammer on about this over and over again. Like, the volatility has increased, but the stocks haven't moved. So, if you're using the same premise for your stops, it's not going to work. Like, I have much smaller positions on, and then what I do is I just have wider birth stops right now. I started doing that again yesterday, too, for names I really want to own. Um, because that's what's going to happen today. I mean, that's really what you have to focus on. I think that's the way that I could say it.
All right, let's just go through this. See what I have. AMG. I keep saying this name, so let's do it. Uh, I have no idea what they do. Not a clue. You know, I can only talk about it from a technical standpoint. Clearly, uh, from that earnings point on, everybody had to be in this, and it's ripped, and I wish you the best with it. Um, for me, this kind of stuff, like $5 million a quarter, like, what do they operate out of a strip mall? Like, I'm not being facetious, but, you know, you know what's going to happen here. You know, they're going to like dilute the hell out of that thing, right? You know, it's coming. Um, it's a question of where. I live from Mexico. I live from Miami. ARKG, like I saw that breaking out and it came right back. Um, we have to look at that. And, uh, Oh, good. Everything's backed up. World peace again. Come here one second here. Still looks okay, doesn't it? I mean, you're holding. What the heck just jumped? Oh, they're buying the hell out of SanDisk. I have all that SanDisk in that one account. All right. Inside voice. Okay. Um, SATG. Let's do that. SATG. Um, I have no idea what this thing is. Leverage shares of SATs. Um, you know, I started buying this today because I think that this thing opens up much higher than people think, and I think it's going to stay higher than I think. So, I started buying some today. I'm already down in it like a buck and a half, two bucks, but I don't really care. Um, I think that this thing got oversubscribed. I'm really surprised it's oversubscribed and people want so much of it because the valuation's stupid. But, you know, it doesn't really matter what I think, right? It matters what happens, and, uh, I can, there I go again thinking. But if they want it, they want it, and it is what it is. It's supply and demand. Uh, Marvel just had their price target raised. SpaceX launches Falcon 9 rocket minutes ahead of IPO. Please don't blow up. All right, what else we got here? Leopold. Leopold level. Yeah, they're not going to sign. They're just going to drag this out. He doesn't understand there. Uh, 85, but it's like soup. I'm over the humidity, you know. I actually think the humidity is giving me headaches. Lenire was a dumpster fire, by the way. I don't think a lot of people are talking about that. Uh, their sales were a dumpster fire. >> Well, I think the problem falls into place not with whether or not it gaps up or down. It's just a function of, um, why are we down today? I, I don't know. There's probably some stupid reason why we're down. Are we not? We don't need DM anymore. Is that what happened? Um, there'll be some dumb reason why it's down, but whatever. I mean, I think if you did yourself a favor, like I was thinking about this the other day for people that are trying to play it. Let's say you set a level like, "I'm going to buy it at 950," and you bought a spot and you bought an amount all the way down to 500, and like whatever that amount is, whether it's one share, a hundred shares, a thousand shares, every time it drops. Where do you think you are in 12 months with that name? Like, you really think it's over? Like, really? You sure about that? Like, you know, I start looking at some of this stuff, and sometimes I think like if I was just dumb and I just bought the names and stopped overthinking it, I might do a little bit better. I like Hyperlid a lot. A lot. I started accumulating it. That's what I need. Perfect. Alberto, thank you very much. Argentina yesterday upgraded credit rating from CCC to B minus, and that was the reason for all the buying, and that's why they're buying the banks. That's perfect. Thank you. That's what I need. All right, let me get that out there while I'm thinking about it. S&P upgraded credit rating from CCC plus to B minus, and that's going to drive the bonds higher, which is why the banks are going higher. There it is. Perfect. Thank you very much. All right. Oh, I hit the wrong button. It's recording now. I got this Wisp AI on my on the internets. Oh, now it's giving me a transcript. Hold on. Oh, boy. Hold on. Hold on. MCI review classification June 23rd. That's why it's moving. Thank you. So, they know that stuff. Duck and Miller knows that stuff. That's why he was buying the hell out of them mid-May because they have to buy ahead by a month. They can't, they can't get in and out. No, they're not really going along with it. They were just setting them up. What's up, Tariq? Does he read you all the comments? No. I've got 700 comments in here, man. Good lord. Yeah, Clack looks like a beast, dude. Absolute certified beast. 800-pound gorilla, Silverback, dude. Unbelievable. All of those names. Look at them all. Dax. Aat Clack, Lamb Research, ASML. I'd love for ASML to get smoked today. I would love it. That would be the cat's pajamas. If that came down to like that 1780, I got my little bell there. Ding ding. I would be victorious. I would bask in my triumph if that happens, Dexter. Those names are going a lot higher. A lot. That's my opinion. You should do what you want with it. I watch that guy now. Honest to God, I watch that guy and I laugh my butt off. He's hysterical. I should find out that channel. But he is, he just makes me laugh. I don't like Purr, but they're going to go a lot higher, Dex. If you think, if you look at the buildout, like, I'll go over Purr, and then I got to go, but I want to go into what Dex is talking about because it's really important that people get this. Like, if you look at SKHEX, right? This is just so interesting to me. But if you look at SKHEX, that's not it. It's like 992, right? Is it 992? Isn't that it? No, that's Lenova. Um, if you look at SKH Highness and what they said, their buildout, they are going to double their buildout over the next five years. They're not doing that because this is going away. So, there's only one. I mean, that's ASML, right? That's ASML. They're going to say, "Oh, there's this new machine." Okay, you go try the new machine. You let me know how that goes. Um, there's ASML, there's Lamb Research, that's SE 39% of their business, 39% of their business is ND, right? Clack, you need to build out, and then AAT is more the generalist, but you really need an order of order to for the buildout. You need ASML, Lamb, Clack, AAT in that order. And then you need the testing equipment. Duh. Which is why those testers are ripping. So, all right. But yeah, you're dead right on that, dude. Purr. I'm glad you brought that up, Dex. Um, I don't like this because it's like, it's like the BMR hyperliquid. Like, I don't want to own common stock that owns the thing. Do you know what I mean? Like, why do I want to own common stock that owns the thing? I'd rather own the thing, or you're just going to turn into like this pig, right? Like, what's the point? So, but this THYP actually owns the underlying Hyperlid. So, when you're buying this, you're buying Hyperlid. When you're buying this, you're buying a company that owns Hyperlid. It's very different. Then you have this thing, too. Um, THYP. And then there was this other dumb thing I was trading the other day. TXXH. Is that it? Because, why not? Why? Why not buy 2x it? So, Larry, I am in no mood for you today. All right, I got to jump. I got to go do the SpaceX. Make good choices. Have a good weekend.