Transcription
You see that AMLO says Mexico's problem is corruption. Hmm, I don't think that's Mexico's problem. I think Mexico's problem stems from the fact that we have upper classes of very low quality, and in fact, in terms of intellectual, moral, and ethical quality, they are of extremely low quality. And even though they have access to the best education, the best travel, and so on, it's not that they are precisely very enlightened. They are at the forefront of everything, and that sort of holds back all things. But it holds them back precisely because there is a gigantic problem. 95% of Mexico doesn't speak English. I mean, only 5% speak English. But basically, there's a whole group of people who believe that innovation is in Wired magazine and what's being seen in Atwiek, New York, and a whole series of things that are like, "Hey, excuse me, where do you live?" And people live in a strange imaginary world where La Condesa borders New York to the north, London to the east, Los Angeles to the west, and hell to the south. It's not like it's Monterrey. Oh, yes. But then the main problem that stems from all of this is that there's a psychosis that we are North Americans. Yes, we are North Americans, but we are not gringos. And when one understands that, one should be able to discern what works for them, which will never work here. And so the point of what I'm saying is that all the people who are in innovation want to do innovation the gringo way in Mexico. Of course. And that will never work because the first moment that Tesla's smart car, which drives itself and has its own intelligence to know how to navigate the roads of San Francisco, is released on the second level of the Periférico to take an exit with 50 ladies, you know, the lady, you know how you say it, right? Lady Periférico, Lady, all these people getting into the car will have a nervous breakdown and throw themselves off the second level, and where I am, it won't be understood because it's not made for this reality. And so when one understands that, it turns out there are 130 million Mexicans, and there one would have to think about the singularity in the year 2040, but what is the singularity like in San Martín Texelucan, in Colipa, in Nautla, in every little town and ranch, and in all the cities of Mexico? It won't be like San Francisco and New York. So, people are truly very harmed by their subscription to Wired, and people are extremely harmed by believing that they are there, and they are thinking that it applies to a society like the North American one, when Mexican society is nothing like it. And this is something that has come up again and again in these same podcasts, that depending on how you want to see it, there is a Mexican upper class, which is less than a million people, who earn more than a million pesos a month, so the income is incredibly high. And I always say at conferences, none of you are Mexican upper class, and of course, they are surprised, they go to private universities and look at me like, "Oh, why does he say that?" Because the Mexican upper class is characterized by only one trait. They don't live in Mexico. They come from time to time to see if the country is still alive, they don't study in Mexico, they don't live here, and they just come to visit. So, it's an upper class that is in Europe and the United States, and that is effectively European and North American. Then comes an upper-middle class, which is 5 million people, starting at 90,000 pesos. This is the one that continuously travels to the United States, and where very strange things happen. Target in the United States is for the middle class, but for the Mexican upper-middle class, Target is like the Olympus of their dreams, and it's like, "Mom, why do you go to Target in the United States so much? Why do you only go to Walgreens?" Mom, "Oh, Pepe, because you know, Mexican aspirin doesn't work for me, and your dad always gets a headache when I want it. So, I need American aspirin, eh?" And so the lady goes for her American aspirin, and they even bring the detergent from there, and that makes them think that they live there. Many times they have a house and whatever, right? I mean, there's no problem, etc. This happens a lot in Monterrey because they go to buy things there, right? Well, Tijuana, not to mention it. Yes, Tijuana, San Diego. A Mexican middle class, which turns out to be 24 million people, and this middle class, 4,500, and 24 million, you know? Now, these 24 million in the middle class have a gigantic problem. It's very low income. This thing they say that Mexico is in the middle-income trap. Oh, well, who knows what that's like, because it turns out that we are on average salaries of about 16,000 for the whole country. But this is very misleading because they are including the upper class and upper-middle class in everything. So, it turns out that it's not true. I mean, in practice, four out of 100 are in the middle-middle class. Four out of 100 is super small, you know? And the middle class, given all their deficiencies, has to invent imaginary worlds, and often what they don't have in money, they have in ideology. So, they do believe they are living the North American reality because they see Instagram in English and TikTok in English. But this is basically psychosis because you are seeing what is consumed there in English, but you are having it on a Mexican salary, and you will never achieve it. I mean, that won't happen. And there is a fundamental factor. I was middle class my whole life, then I wasn't anymore. I don't want to be middle class anymore. The middle class is a very easy question. You owe, if you owe, you are middle class. I mean, if you buy on installments, if you put it on the card for 12 months, the middle class has everything, but they owe everything because they have to pay the mortgage, etc. Everything is in small installments. How did I get out of the middle class? I went to the credit bureau. So, from then on, they don't give me credit anymore, so I'm not middle class. I have no other choice. I have no other choice. I'm already lower-middle class, right? Now, what I'm saying, which might seem particularly absurd, is that one would have to understand reality as we have it. In fact, even in banking, these that I just mentioned, the middle class, the upper-middle class, and the upper class, all of them are banked, all of them have internet. And when you are in the middle-middle class, you believe very strange things. So, then someone comes out saying, "Sochil is going to win. I saw it. Sochil is going to win, eh? Because yes, oh no, everyone is going to vote for Sochil in your middle class, in the upper-middle class, and in the upper class, you are seeing your Instagram around and your Twitter, right? But there are 100 million people who are lower-middle class and below the poverty line, and these 100 million people are the ones who truly determine everything. So, from Santa Fe, the people who studied in private universities, "No, the trend is that everyone wants sustainability in your neighborhood, dad, because the 100 million people earn less than two minimum wages, and it's not that they don't want to save the world, it's not that, it's that they can't afford it." And in fact, in practice, their priorities are different, their priorities are completely different. In fact, in practice, when you look at it, what businesses work nationwide? Well, those of the 100 million. And what does that mean? Well, Copel, Cuidado con el perro, Marinela, Bimbo, everything that can be sold to the 100 million at very low prices, but it's a large market quantity. So, that's where the trend is, and it won't be sophisticated taste. Then they ask me, oh, is it true that silent luxury is coming, and what's that called, dressing like The Beige, rich people? Old Style, Old Money, right? And I say, "Oh, how ridiculous you are." Because, look, who is the richest man in Mexico, or among the richest? It doesn't matter, he's still there, but he rises and falls, falls and rises to the rhythm of this song. Well, Mr. Slim. Now, Mr. Slim was born on my block, and since Mr. Slim was born on my block, look, I swear to you because I live in La Merced, well, everyone there is screwed. Ah, so Mr. Slim was born poor, and in his life, he studied at UNAM, and then he did some specialization, I don't know, in what they call the Poli, and he is the richest man in the world. Old Money, he is first generation. And you look at the top 10 richest in Mexico, and yes, there are some who inherited, but of the top 10 in Mexico, seven are first generation. So, there is no old money here, and when you start to understand these logics, you realize that we don't have it. And besides, in Mexico, particularly, this rich people in many occasions got it through a concession or through an agreement, meaning they had government involvement, right? There was something there that you say, well, that's fine, after working whatever you want and thanks to that, a lot of what happened happened, but how they got there is different from how it happened in the United States with Benjamin Franklin or, you know, characters like that who were even from invention and then sometimes were altruistic, sometimes did things for universities, and so it's a different scheme and a completely different aspiration. So, you see that in the 19th century, particularly, there was a gentleman who was in Paris, and he became interested in seeing what Charles Frederick Worth and the couturiers of that time were presenting. And he would go and draw everything he saw, and he would see the fabrics they were releasing, and he would go to La Parisina, but the Parisina in Paris, and he would cut a small piece of fabric and make books. So, he would take his boat, and upon arriving in New York, as soon as he got off the boat, the people from Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and everyone else were already there, and he would bring the trend book, and he would sell them the trend for the next year because his theory was that what had been seen in Paris would be seen in New York the following year. So, he would sell his books, return, and make more books, right? [ __ ] This happens in the United States, during World War II, after the first atomic bomb, etc., and then the Cold War begins. The Cold War is, I don't attack you because if you attack me, I attack you, and you have nuclear weapons, and I have nuclear weapons. So, one day President Johnson says to all his people, "Okay, listen, what happens if I start a nuclear war?" And everyone there says, "No, sir, that cannot be thought of. No, how a nuclear war? No, calm down. I mean, what is it about? No, it cannot be." And a chubby guy who was there named Herman Kahn says, "I'll calculate it, give me some time, and I'll calculate this." Hmm. And then Herman Kahn returns and says, "I've calculated it." It's game theory, right? It's called "On Thermonuclear War," his book on thermonuclear war. And basically, what he invented is scenario prediction. So, he tells President Johnson, "Look, a nuclear war doesn't blow up the planet like the Death Star, there aren't that many weapons, I mean, it's not possible. After the first strike, 40% of the entire population dies, but 60% of the United States survives. Eh, now it costs us so much to move all the industries underground, it costs so much that radiation doesn't kill you right away, it kills you in 5 years. So, let's do this. We bury the cities, and miles deep are the babies. Once they are 10 years old, we move them to the next floor. Once they are 20 years old, to the next floor. And once they are 55, 60, we put them on the surface because it kills you in 5 years. So, there's no problem then, they can live on the surface. And with this, we can last so many years, and the Russians can't last because they don't have the money. What do you think?" And then the president is like, "Well, alright, I'm not scared anymore," and it didn't happen. But then this is inaugurated, I mean, it's also trend calculation. Now, why am I telling you all this? Because it turns out that among the design generations, there are now a lot of people who go to Imperial College in London and go to Miami to study a bunch of things, and now they bring the idea of Design Futures. And the first thing Design Futures says is that the future cannot be predicted, but this is simply another embodiment of the poor are poor because they want to be, because the future cannot be predicted. Of course, it cannot be predicted for people who live in American cities where the economy is 21 times larger than the Mexican economy and there is social mobility. Now, Mexico is one of the countries that has social mobility, which means that whoever is born poor dies poor, and whoever is born rich, even if they go through three divorces and two oceanic trips, they continue to die rich because it doesn't matter. In fact, they go on an oceanic trip and meet other people to do another business. More money, more money. No, there's no way to lose, you know? So, in this regard, Mexico is a country that has no social mobility, the economy doesn't move, and there really isn't this possibility that the future is indeterminate. That the future is indeterminate is basically almost a phrase from the American Constitution, I mean, the pursuit of happiness and the American dream cannot happen here. So, how will the rest of the Mexican century be? Will there be great social mobility? Will we lift millions and those 100 million people we have in lower-middle class and lower class out of poverty? It won't happen because there isn't the structure, there isn't the, I mean, yes, it can be predicted. And in this they say that the future cannot be predicted because the poor are poor because they want to be, basically it's like good-willed thinking mixed with an idea that we are in the first world when we are not. And it turns out that in these societies, there are many things that are perfectly predictable because what is happening now has happened before, and even before that. So, one of the things that strikes me is that when you see the Brooklyn Bridge or the gigantic bridges that come out of New York, those were built in the steam era, and it turns out that when those bridges were being built, they were already in the industrial revolution, and here in Mexico, barely, I mean, what great work from the same year as the Brooklyn Bridge is there in Mexico? Ah, well, it's the mole that Cielito Lindo has next to your mouth, because here we always get lost in the party and in the liberal-conservative fight. We are still there, and so great works are not done, nothing is being built because that is part of the local idiosyncrasy, because it takes time, and the time it takes is not enough for a politician to claim it. It requires momentum, yes. And a politician cannot claim it, so there won't be those works. So, I'm not going to do it. Why would I do something that will take 10 years to build or whatever, and I won't get the applause? Personally, one thing that I find very interesting is that imagine that all the young people who work at Trendo have major medical expense insurance, which is very cheap because they are very young, and in contrast, my major medical expense insurance is incredibly expensive because it's insurance that I'm already at an age to use, right? And that is a form of future prediction. I mean, it turns out that insurance companies know that nothing will happen to someone who is 21, I mean, insure them for millions if you want. Give me a little money because most likely nothing will happen to them, and in contrast, something will happen to old people. Yes, it's more probable, more constant, from an actuary, from a notary, from this act, mathematics, whatever you want, so it turns out that it can be predicted, and that idea of being able to predict the future, so it turns out that they say it cannot be, and then it becomes purely speculative in a Pollyanna. Pollyanna is this character who exists in the United States, who is super optimistic. And these people become super optimistic telling incredible stories. It's that in the future, education, well, artificial intelligence will revolutionize education. Hey, excuse me. And the teachers' union and Elba Gordillo and the CNTE? And there are no computers, and the educational reality in Mexico. Seriously, you are talking about what the future of education is, you understand nothing, because you would have to truly see what the SEP book is like right now, how they removed the math book, and extrapolate it, extrapolate it for 20 years, and see if we have technological education for nearshoring in 20 years. It won't happen, even if you say that the future cannot be predicted and there is probable, plausible, perfectible, preferable, and all those nonsense, right? So, a fundamental part of this is to really see how the market behaves. It's a bit like saying from HR that we are going to change the company and I don't know what, but the director still hasn't decided that he wants to do what you are saying, right? So, it won't change. You can, I can study and say, "Okay, in my imaginary Mexico, it will look like this, this, and this," but who will execute that it actually happens so that the conditions are met for you to keep losing? It won't happen. Hmm. And curiously, Calderón, in the last three months of his government, did a study called Mexico 2030. Now, there are only 5 years left until Mexico 2030. And it says that in 2030, all Mexicans, whether small or large, will earn 50,000 pesos a month. There are 4 years left. Is it going to happen? Of course not, right? And President Peña Nieto, when he took office, the private sector gave him a study called Mexico 2042, and basically they told him, "Mr. Peña Nieto, if you take this path, Mexico will be very rich, eh? If you take the current path, Mexico will be mediocre, but if you take this one, Mexico will sink." And always, all the decisions that have been made from then until now are the middle or the lower one. They were never the recommendations of the upper one. So, which is preferable? Which is possible? Which is plausible? The Pollyanna who is predicting that everything will turn out well is profoundly mistaken. In fact, it's not that we predict total dystopia either. But basically, I feel that even as an intelligence test, those people who read Atomic Habits, there are two words that demonstrate very low intelligence: post-truth and polycrisis. Because they now say polycrisis. Look, excuse me. I've had to hear that. Everyone in innovation says nonsense. Look, excuse me, polycrisis. What does it refer to? To a whole series of trends in which the ecological crisis, the economic crisis, the environmental crisis are converging in a crisis scenario. And how do you think it was in 1933 when it was already clear that World War II was coming? And how do you think it looked in 1914? And how do you think it looked in 1966 with the Vietnam War? And how do you think the internal crises of the PRI looked throughout the 20th century? And how do you think a crisis is many things? I mean, it doesn't hold up to anything. Oh, the polycrisis, there's always a polycrisis. Uh-huh. I myself have, thanks to Trendo, enough money to live the rest of my life as long as I die in the next 10 days, you know? So, the moment I stop working, well, there's the polycrisis, I mean, I can never rest. I have to work, I can't rest. Boom, boom. So, it turns out that the moment I let my guard down, the demons are unleashed. And as for post-truth, well, I worked at the Center for Image and in the 90s, we already had exhibitions where Stalin erased photos of those he disliked, they were erased from the photo because they had already disappeared, and so they no longer existed. Where is the photo? No. And it turns out that it's all with artificial intelligence and everything, but the photo always lied. All photography is basically the art of lying disguised as the art of truth. So, to say that now because digital image manipulation is possible, there is post-truth, well, no, it's not post-truth, it's post-lie. Because it turns out that it was always like that, but people are so innocent that they see a photo with a car and think it's mine, and it's a car coming down the street, and I didn't need artificial intelligence. Yes, of course, from that point of view, greeting presidents as if they were friends, pure bullshit. Even how I tell it, and so it turns out to be very innocent, but again, it's like, "It's because I live in the United States, and no one lies to me because the Washington Post and the New York Times never lie." Oh, please. I mean, the Washington Post and the New York Times lie to you just as much as the press and La Jornada del Milenio might lie to you. I mean, it's a bit like, "It's because we live under certain rules there that don't apply here." No, dad. You live here in Mexico, and get used to living here in Mexico, and stop reading those strange things that are doing you a lot of harm, you know?