Transcription
What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron. If you are scouring the internet looking for rankings before your fantasy football draft, this is the place for you because today I am going to rank my top 60 wide receivers for fantasy football. We're going to go player by player, tier by tier, and talk about the entire landscape as I see it. This is the biggest tier list I've done on the channel. So, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and the first player, the first wide receiver we're going to talk about is Jamar Chase. He is in the wide receiver one overall tier.
Now, I feel much stronger about the tier breaks, and I do player A versus player B within each tier. So, feel free to shake up however I have them ordered within each tier, but this is where I see the overall tier breaks and values at the position. Jamar Chase in the wide receiver one overall tier. These are guys you can interchange as the number one receiver in fantasy. Of course, Jamar Chase the most obvious candidate. He finished wide receiver one overall last season. Triple crown winner. He's in the exact same situation tied to Joe Burrow and a bad defense. He should be very easily in the 20 plus point per game area as it pertains to PPR.
Now, I will say these are for PPR leagues, but you can absolutely use them for half PPR leagues. And my entire rankings list you can find over on the Patreon. I have my top 200 rankings cheat sheet there. My tiers, my target rounds for every player, my targets, my fades, all of that good stuff. It is the same cheat sheet I use in all of my own drafts. You can find that patreon.com/Swart in the description and the comments section down below.
Oh, now at wide receiver 2, we have CD Lamb. And I got killed for this the other day for saying that Jamar Chase had a weak triple crown season. And when we look at fantasy point per game producers, he did. Jamar Chase had the eighth best point season since the year 2000. Cooper Kupp's triple crown season was the best. CD Lamb actually outscored him in points per game in 2023. And that's the point I was trying to make that as recently as 2023, CD Lamb had the same caliber of wide receiver one overall season. We just don't really view him that way. So CD Lamb absolutely has wide receiver one overall in his range of outcomes. They just traded away Michael Parsons today. They're going to throw the ball a ton inside of a dome. So even with George Pickens, I think CD Lamb is absolutely a candidate to go as high as the wide receiver one overall. And he is personally my 103 in my rankings.
Then at wide receiver 3, we have Justin Jefferson. I I can't put him any lower than this. He's played 77 career games thus far and he has the most PPR points among any wide receiver through 77 career games. After him, it's Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss. That's the kind of trajectory that Justin Jefferson is on. And over his entire career, his 17-game pace, just his average, even including his rookie year, is 109 receptions, 1641 yards, and nine touchdowns. That would be good for 19.2 points per game. In most years, that's anywhere from a top three to a top five finish at wide receiver. I get that there's a hamstring concern. I get that we all don't really know what to expect from J.J. McCarthy. But Justin Jefferson has had that 17-game pace with multiple different quarterbacks from Kirk Cousins to Josh Dobbs to Nick Mullins to Sam Darnold last year. KC makes it work. Justin Jefferson makes it work. I I I don't think that it's smart to overthink it past the number three wide receiver in fantasy football.
Which then brings us to the wide receiver one tier. These are guys that I just think are fine top 12 options. You put them in your wide receiver one slot and it feels good. With Puka Nacua, he is my wide receiver 4 this year. When we look at per route metrics, he is maybe the most impressive wide receiver in football. In terms of PFF grade, in terms of targets per route run, no one else on this list has a 30% plus targets per route run. He was at 37%. He was at 16% first downs per route run. No one else clearing 15% and then 3.56 yards per route run. No one else clearing three. This is a special special talent heading into the third year of his career. He was the wide receiver 2 in points per game already last year. This would be to me where he makes his jump into wide receiver one overall territory. But of course, there are some injury concerns. Puka has his own injury concerns along with Matthew Stafford. So, it's a bit of a parlay, but the upside is as high as anybody in this tier when it comes to Puka Nacua.
Next up at wide receiver 5, I have Nico Collins for the Texans. Very similar situation. And you can see per route, not quite as crazy as Puka, but 28% targets per route run, 13.7% first downs per route run, 2.87 yards per route run are all really strong numbers. Now, why do I care about any of this? PFF grade, how does he look on film? Targets per route run, how much volume are you getting per route? First downs per route run, are you not only being efficient, but are you moving the chains and being an engine within your offense? And then yards per route run, are you making big plays? He qualifies across the board. He now gets C.J. Stroud, new offensive coordinator. We already saw last year that he had 21.3 points per game through his five weeks before getting hurt. If Nico Collins can stay healthy, he can absolutely give you 20 plus points per game as a true difference-maker at receiver.
Now, somebody probably getting slept on is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is at my wide receiver 6 spot. Super high floor, really good offense. I got that comment yesterday that yes, the Lions lost some offensive linemen and they lost their offensive coordinator, but they're still projected by Las Vegas to score inside the top six of the best offenses in football. They're going to have plenty of dome games. All the infrastructure of Dan Campbell and Goff and Amon-Ra. It's all still there. I think it's overthinking to think that the Lions won't still be a good offense. Amon-Ra the last two years 18.6 points per game, 20.7 points per game as the wide receiver 4 in both seasons. So wide receiver 6 feels about right for him.
Then at wide receiver 7, I have Brian Thomas Jr. He had the ninth best rookie point per game season since 1998. And he did that with seven games of J.J. Mac Jones. I almost said Josh Allen, but of M. Jones, which is just absolutely nuts. When you look at his per-route metrics among rookies, really strong targets per route run around 25%. He led the entire class in yards per route run, 10% plus first downs per route run, 80 plus PFF grade across the board. An absolute monster. Now he gets Liam Cohen from the Bucs. He gets a healthy Trevor Lawrence and Mike Clay, who is the ESPN projections guy, has the Jaguars inside the top 10 in terms of pass attempts and passing yards this season. There should be plenty of volume for Brian Thomas to eat.
Now, at wide receiver 8, we have Malik Neighbors. And some might say that this is a little bit low for Neighbors, and it absolutely is, and I'll get into that in a second, but I'm going to get yelled at for having Neighbors this low, but then I also get yelled at for not straying from consensus and essentially copying ADP on the rankings. So, you got to let me know which way you which way you want to have it. Do you actually want my rankings or do you just want the safe ADP picks? Because I've gotten that comment a ton, but I'm giving you guys these are my rankings. This is how I am drafting in fantasy football. Malik Neighbors is really good. We can see his rookie year numbers all really strong as well. Best targets per route run, two plus yards per route run, just shy of first downs per route run in the 10% area, best PFF grade among the wide receivers on this list. But the Giants offense is worse than the Jaguars in terms of Brian Thomas Jr.'s situation. Mike Clay has this offense projected outside of the top 20 in pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. You're going to have either rookie quarterback in Jaren Hall or Russell Wilson. This team is going to thrive off of playing defense, right? They just got Adonai Mitchell and they got Brian Burns up front and they got Dexter Lawrence. They have a very good defensive unit that is going to keep them in games and there's not going to be as much garbage time for the Giants.
Then at wide receiver 9 in our next tier of low-end wide receiver ones. I'm fine with these guys as my wide receiver ones, but it doesn't feel as strong as these top eight. We have Drake London, who if you want to put him up here, you absolutely can. To me, he's like kind of midway between both. He has great per-route metrics himself. You can see from this list, 90 plus grade, 27% targets per route run, 12% first downs per route run, two plus yards per route run. Really, really good. Last year we already saw him hit 19.3 points per game and I believe a five-game sample with Michael Penix. He was at 15.4 points per game before that. It's only a five-game sample, but he could absolutely jump up to 19, 20 plus points per game, be a top six wide receiver in fantasy. It's just that we haven't really seen it yet is why I'm moving him here. And I think that the year 2 potential of Brian Thomas and Neighbors is a little bit more interesting to me personally. I also think that this offensive environment, they lose Caleb McGary up front. This offensive line is bad and this this offense lives and dies by Michael Penix. I'm open to Penix being good and having a year two breakout, but it's far from a sure thing.
After that, we have A.J. Brown, who I'll just leave this chart up for. He is somebody who's a monster as well. Like 14% first downs per route run, almost three plus yards per route run. He is good. He is one of the best wide receivers in football. He deserves to be up here from a pure talent standpoint. This is as low as I can put him when it comes to his offense. It's going to be low passing volume. He has Jalen Hurts. He's going to be competing with DeVonta Smith, but he is a very, very good player who has a very high floor. He's finished as the wide receiver 12, wide receiver 8, and wide receiver 8 over his last three seasons in terms of points per game.
Then our last wide receiver in this tier is going to be Ladd McConkey, who is very similar to the other rookies that we've talked about, right, with Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas. He is in that same category in terms of targets per route run, yards per route run, first downs per route run. He just didn't have the same type of production. Whereas Brian Thomas and Malik Neighbors were top 12 wide receiver options last year. Ladd was more of a late-blooming wide receiver 2 I would call him. They also bring in Keenan Allen which isn't the end of the world but we do also love the schemed-up slot usage for a guy like Ladd McConkey and inherently Keenan Allen is going to take some of those reps and some of those looks away. I'm nitpicking here, but it's why Ladd McConkey is wide receiver 11 and a tier behind the other two rookie wide receivers up there.
Then that brings us to the high-end wide receiver 2 tier. These are guys that I'd much prefer in my wide receiver 2 spot instead of my wide receiver 1 spot. They feel much cozier as wide receiver 2s, but you know, sometimes you go two to three running backs up top and these guys end up in your wide receiver 1 slot. First up, wide receiver 12, we have Tee Higgins. Last year we actually saw him finish in like this area with 18 plus points per game. I definitely understand that there are some durability concerns. He is somebody who gets hurt. He's somebody who misses time. But when he plays within this offense, even next to Jamar Chase, he is still a difference-maker. He's going to average anywhere from like 15 to 18 points per game and be really solid. But 20 plus is probably not in his range of outcomes without a Jamar Chase injury. We're going to have a lot of volume with a bad defense. It should set up very well for Tee Higgins.
Then at wide receiver 13, I keep moving him up is honestly Mike Evans. This is a very good player. Still at the peak of his powers. I really liked this Matt Harmon blurb on Mike Evans saying that he's one of the coolest players in the league because he entered the NFL as an absolute freak show, right? This is somebody who was like 6'4, 230 lbs, could run in a straight line super fast, but he's now become this very savvy route runner where he set a career-high in success rate versus man coverage, 84th percentile versus press. He had an above average, an average or better success rate on every route type. So, this is now like a true technician and a master of his craft. As cool as it is to say about Mike Evans, and he's already coming off a year where he was the wide receiver 10 in points per game. I got him wide receiver 13 at this point. And this Chris Godwin stuff does not seem good. I know that he avoided the PUP, but he's unexpected back until week five or later. And then even then, he has to ramp up and get back to his previous self. And I'm just kind of betting against that if I'm being honest with you. So Mike Evans feels absolutely fine to me here as like a late third-round pick as my wide receiver 13.
Then we can talk about Davante Adams at wide receiver 14. He's coming off a wide receiver 9 point per game season despite brutal quarterback play from Aaron Rodgers. You just need Matthew Stafford to stay healthy. He's still at 80th 80th percentile markers versus man press on reception perception. It's just the downside of age, right? We've seen this story before. Julio Jones on the Titans comes to mind. Allen Robinson on the Rams comes to mind. Things could get really spooky here or he could squeak out another top 12 finish in a good offense. And if Puka was to get hurt, Davante Adams would then have 20 plus wide receiver one overall type of upside in terms of his point per game output.
Then we have wide receiver 15, Tyreek Hill. And I've actually moved him down a bunch since we last did one of these tier lists. The vibes are just bad. He's had like an oblique injury all offseason. Doesn't seem like him and Tua will get along. The Mike McDaniel press conferences aren't great, but the upside is clearly there. Like, this is the quintessential boom-bust pick where if Tyreek Hill hits, he's only a season removed from a 23.5 point per game season on 3.82 yards per route run. We're going to get a lot of passing volume from this Miami offense. If it clicks, we could see 20 plus points per game. If it doesn't, we could see one of the worst picks in fantasy football for Tyreek Hill.
Then we move on to just my fine wide receiver 2s. First up being JSN as our wide receiver 16. I think he's a fine player, but he didn't clear two plus yards per route run on a per-route basis. He wasn't great last year and he now gets a really rough passing environment. You get Kellen Moore as the OC who wants to run the ball a ton. You get Mike McDonald who wants to run the ball and play defense. And then you get Sam Darnold who looked good with KC. We'll see how he looks with Kellen Moore. If he was to get benched, Dillon Johnson would then nuke this passing offense even more. So, it's really tough for me to buy in on JSN. But from a zoomed-out perspective, he was the wide receiver 17 in points per game last year. I have him wide receiver 16 and he's heading into year three and can absolutely take a step forward and beat this ranking. I I just have some concerns about the situation.
At wide receiver 17, we have Terry McLaurin. He is the clear wide receiver 1 on this offense. They just traded away Adam Thielen, top 10 pick at wide receiver. He can be a stud. Very similar to what Brian Thomas Jr. was last year. So, this is a 6'4" number one wide receiver produced all three years of Arizona and fits in very nicely to Dave Canales's offense here.
18 Terry McLaurin. There's some downside that because of the contract dispute, he starts slow, but I do think that Terry McLaurin is one of these guys where he's such like a pros pro and like between the ears veteran that I just don't think that he's going to start all that slow. I think he's a fine wide receiver, too. He's attached to Jayden Daniels in a good offense. Yes. Does he do for maybe touchdown regression this year? Sure, after 13, but it's going to be a good scoring offense. So, he could easily score 10 plus touchdowns again as a top 15 option at the position.
Then at wide receiver 19, we have Marvin Harrison Jr. and he's really tough for me to bet on. He was the wide receiver 39 in points per game last year. I have him wide receiver 19. So, I'm pushing him up 20 spots here, but there's so much downside. He could improve on wide receiver 39 and still finish as like wide receiver 27 and be a pretty brutal pick at wide receiver 19. So, he's someone that I've been fading a ton, but this is where I have him ranked on my own cheat sheet. He's someone who doesn't really create separation. 33% of his targets were contested. A lot of 50/50 balls, and those just aren't the looks that Kyler is all that crazy about. On top of that, he doesn't get the layups, right? Right. He's not getting any fun bubble screens or like putting Marvin Harrison in motion. It's it's go line up on the outside, be an X, and win that way, which when you're Nico Collins, that can work. But I don't think that Marvin Harrison Jr. is there yet. And I also don't think Kyler is the same level of quarterback as C.J. Stroud. You can also see these stats here that I think are pretty good. Marvin Harrison Jr. ran the 19th highest vertical route percentage on those. 83rd percentile in separation score or just 83rd among 106 wide receivers in separation score, 49th in win rate, 59th in yards per route run. And then Kyler on these vertical routes, 36th in yards per attempt, 37th in adjusted net yards per attempt, 32nd in completion percentage over expected, and 24th in catchable throw percentage. Just not good. It's just a bad marriage of talents. I think that Marvin Harrison Jr. is a good player. Again, I think it's just a rough marriage of quarterback, OC, and Marv. It's just a It's just a tough spot. I wish I could say something more positive about a player I believe in.
Uh same deal here where I love Garrett Wilson. He is my favorite player, my favorite team, but I haven't really been drafting him. He's a good target earner. He gets open, but we saw last year he finished as the wide receiver 18 in points per game. I now have him wide receiver 20. He was wide receiver 18 attached to Aaron Rodgers who wasn't good, but at least it was a high volume, somewhat accurate passing offense. Now you're going to have a low volume run-first passing offense that's inaccurate from Justin Fields. And we already saw Garrett Wilson be top five in targets and only finish wide receiver 18. So like wide receiver 20 is about as high as I can put Garrett Wilson at this point.
Then we have wide receiver 21 George Pickens. And this is the discount Higgins to me especially with this Micah Parsons news. This just means that this defense is going to be awful without Micah Parsons. We're going to see a lot of shootouts, a lot of coming from behind for the Cowboys, a lot of pass attempts, a lot of dome games. I think this is the perfect situation where George Pickens goes from a Steelers offense that was 29th in pass attempts to a Cowboys offense that should be top five in pass attempts. So even being beside C.D. Lamb, there should be enough volume to go around that George Pickens can have the 2024 T. Higgins season where he finishes as a top 12 wide receiver despite being on the same team as C.D. Lamb.
After that, you get to wide receiver 22 with Xavier Worthy here. I am a fan. He gets a six-game runway here with Rashee Rice suspended. And here's what's going to happen. He can fall somewhere in the middle, but to me, he's either really good and he carves out a role even when Rashee Rice returns or he's bad and he was going to suck anyways and then Rashee Rice comes in and completely supplants Xavier Worthy. Those are to me kind of the two outcomes here. I like to believe that I think Xavier Worthy can find his footing in this offense. He finished very strong last year. When we look at his final 209 routes from his last seven games, he was at a 24.4% targets per route run, two plus yards per route run, 10% plus first downs per route run, 84 PFF grade with a 21.6 point per game output. He was an absolute monster. That was I believe week I think it was 15, 16, 17, 18, divisional, conference, Super Bowl where he was just an absolute monster over those games and I think that that is what we could see him be this season.
Now, of course, we have Rashee Rice in our high-end wide receiver 3 category as my wide receiver 23 off the board. These are guys where I'd prefer them in my wide receiver 3 spot, right? A guy like Rashee Rice where you're not going to have him for the first six weeks, he is suspended, but over his last 15 games, he has averaged 17 points per game. And that would actually put him into this category to be honest with you. So, essentially, he would be here, but you got to stomach six games of him being on your bench. But if you can weather that storm, especially in leagues where six out of 12 make the playoffs where, you know, that's a 50% chance regardless and it's pretty soft to get there. I think if you can just get some things to break right until Rashee Rice comes back, you can just sort of sneak a super team into the playoffs.
Now, yes, I have Xavier Worthy ranked in the top 24. I have Rashee Rice ranked in the top 24. I refuse to believe that Mahomes is incapable of supporting two fantasy wide receivers inside the top 24. This is somebody who has supported Tyreek Hill's peak, Travis Kelce's peak, both at the same time. I'm just not of the idea that like Mahomes is washed or something like that.
Then at wide receiver 24, we have Travis Hunter. And this is the range when we get to the high-end wide receiver 3s. And you'll see yes, do I have my wide receiver 23 and wide receiver 24? Yes. But I'm I I don't believe in the cut-off of like yes, when we look back at the season, the wide receiver 13 to 24 are your wide receiver 2s. But when I'm ranking them, it's really more about feel in terms of like putting them into my lineup. Looking at my lineup, I would just prefer Travis Hunter and Rashee Rice in my wide receiver 3 spot. Of course, that's easy to say, but that's just kind of where I'm coming from here. Uh, and this is the range where I just want to take swings on rookie upside. Travis Hunter is here. I have him as my wide receiver 2 in my prospect model from the dynasty season. When you look across the board in terms of film score, breakout score, athleticism, efficiency score, all of the above, he comes out behind only Malik Neighbors, Marvin Harrison Jr., and JSN over the last three draft classes. On top of that, we already have quotes saying that Travis Hunter is going to be full-time on offense, easing in on defense. He should be good to go right away as the slot receiver in Liam Cohen's offense.
And then same deal with A.J. Brown. He was my wide receiver 2 in this class by my prospect model. And he is going to have a similar runway here as the wide receiver 2 next to Mike Evans. Really good player. And like I said, I think that the Godwin injury is really rough. So, we're going to see Igbuka have opportunity to make it be a difference-maker right out the gate. You can put him in your lineup right out the gate. And I just can't get this out of my head. When Baker Mayfield talked about Igbuka, he said he can play all three wide receiver positions. That when Mike Evans was out for a day, he filled in at X and did absolutely fine. I think this is a player that wasn't able to show off his true potential due to stacked wide receiver rooms at Ohio State. And I think in the NFL, yes, he'll be next to Mike Evans, but especially early on, it will be all him in terms of slot, flanker, inside and out usage, you know, motion before the play. He will be the guy getting a lot of the good looks in this offense.
Then we get to my wide receiver 26. We have Zay Flowers. People are sleeping on Zay Flowers, man. Look at his per-route metrics compared to these top dogs, right? Like Jamar Chase, C.D. Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr., he fits right in, man. 23.8% 8% targets per route run, 10% plus first downs per route run, 2.25 yards per route run. This is a good player on a scoring offense projected to be inside the top three by Vegas. I get the concern, right? He doesn't really score touchdowns, but if they're going to score a ton of touchdowns, being an efficient offense, it wouldn't shock me if Zay Flowers just ended up with eight or nine touchdowns and had a really strong season. We've seen before a guy like George Kittle, San Francisco scores a lot of touchdowns every year. He didn't score more than six touchdowns until his age 29 season where he then scored 11 touchdowns. Touchdowns are kind of random. If Zay Flowers can hit a touchdown spike year as a third-year breakout candidate who can actually step forward and improve as a receiver, I think Zay Flowers could be a real difference-maker as a true breakout this season.
Then at wide receiver 27, we have Jameson Williams. He is interesting. He's tough to read. He's not a great target earner. He doesn't look good in reception perception, but I can't quit who he is as a player. He's still growing as a player. He's electric. He's on the Detroit Lions who are going to score a lot of points. And I think the blueprint for him is kind of what Will Fuller was next to DeAndre Hopkins, if you guys remember that from back in the day. Of course, without the injuries that Will Fuller had, but Will Fuller was on pace as the wide receiver 8 in points per game in 2020 on the Texans. I think we could see something similar for Jameson Williams. I got to be honest, I don't remember if Hopkins was on that team, but Fuller had some fun years next to Hopkins. I just think in terms of player archetype, Jameson Williams is sort of similar from an efficiency, low target standpoint.
Uh then at wide receiver 28, we have Jaylen Waddle. Hill's banged up. Tyreek Hill, bad vibes across the board. If Hill and Tyreek Hill bust this year, Jaylen Waddle will be the heart and soul of this offense. And I still believe that Jaylen Waddle is a good player. Yes, he's been banged up in his career, but he is the 12th highest paid wide receiver in 2025. He's 26 years old. And we look at his per-route metrics next to his 2021 wide receiver classmates. He looks pretty good. Two plus yards per route run, 22% targets per route run, 10% plus first downs per route run over his entire career. Those are really, really strong numbers over that large of a sample. I still believe he's a good player who's explosive and has plenty of upside in this offense.
Then at wide receiver 29 we have DeVonta Smith. Now I think this is a good time to talk about my mindset with these rankings. I do the these rankings are not how I believe that things will be finished at the end of the year. I think that that is dumb. We are playing for upside. We are playing to win championships. I'm trying to find league winners. I'm not trying to get my wide receiver 24 to finish as the wide receiver 23. It's not really what I am looking for when it comes to fantasy football. It's why I think season-long contests of rankings are dumb where if you are submitting a season-long rankings list for an accuracy contest, you are more hung up on finishing fourth than you are finishing first. So I understand that having DeVonta Smith at wide receiver 29, he is going to outkick this coverage. He is going to finish as probably like your wide receiver 20 this year, but he doesn't have the upside that I'm chasing with these other picks like an A.J. Brown, like a Travis Hunter who could completely dust him in the playoff weeks, in the weeks that matter most or in their top percentile outcomes completely dust him. So that's really what my mindset is. This is the order I would draft these players. These are my rankings for drafts. It is not my rankings for how they are going to finish at the end of the year. I understand that that is a little bit confusing because they should be coinciding with each other. But I slant things towards league-winning upside because I want to win my league and not finish fourth place and have fantasy pros accuracy trophies behind me. I'm trying to win. Um, so DeVonta Smith to me represents that where I I know that he's going to finish higher than wide receiver 29, but he's in a low volume passing offense next to A.J. Brown. There's really not much more to go than finish somewhere between wide receiver 16 to 24, which is fine. but I'm just not in the business of hitting singles in like the fifth round of your fantasy draft.
Uh after that same deal with Courtland Sutton. I don't see the upside. He's turning 30 this year. He was the wide receiver 24 in points per game last year. That was his only top 24 finish of his career. Yes, he's the wide receiver 1 on a good offense. So that's about all he offers you. I don't really see the top 12 upside appeal. He didn't clear the 65th percentile on any of the reception perception win rates. He was at the top 20 in targets per route run, yards per route run, and first downs per route run last year. He's fine. But people are drafting at the top of this tier and I just can't get there.
At wide receiver 31, I have D.K. Metcalf. He's the clear number one on a bad offense. He has Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers did though just support two top 24 wide receivers in Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. And there is definitely some touchdown upside for Metcalf if Rodgers does the same thing he did on the Jets where he checks out of all the runs inside the 10-yard line. The Jets had the highest rate of pass percentage inside of the 10-yard line, which is absolutely nuts, but it's what he insists on doing. So, D.K. Metcalf has pretty high touchdown upside. He has pretty high target upside as well, but I just don't know what the true ceiling is. He hasn't finished inside the top 20 wide receivers in points per game since 2020. So, I just don't know at this point in his career that there's meat left on the bone. But it wouldn't shock me as a lifelong Jets fan if Rodgers did the Brett Favre in Minnesota last dance run and D.K. Metcalf was this year's Terry McLaurin. That's absolutely in his range of outcomes and I will give him that.
After that, we have D.J. Moore who is an interesting player wide receiver 32. He was wide receiver 9 points per game in 2023. Last year was a disaster for the entire offense. I do think that there is a strong likelihood that Roman Wilson is just the better player and outscores him. But of course, you can't rank it that way. August 28th, I just have D.J. Moore kind of buried here. I'm not really drafting him much. In terms of reception perception, he was outside of the what 65th percentile or worse across all three metrics. Roman Wilson looked much better across the board. I think that Roman Wilson will be the outside X and D.J. Moore will get some of the fun flanker slot stuff, but I think as the season goes on, we're going to see more of those touches get siphoned away to Luther Burden and Cole Turner. With D.J. Moore not in the long-term view of this team and why 33, this is a really long tier, right? Like these two tiers especially are why I'm not crazy about taking JSN in the middle to early third when these guys are all available in the next round. Not really Garrett Wilson, but you get what I'm saying. This this whole cluster is why wide receiver is pretty deep and you can get values later on.
But with Calvin Ridley, he could be this year's Terry McLaurin, I guess. But I would be shocked if C.J. Stroud got Ridley to 13 touchdowns like that. I think Calvin Ridley will finish top five, top 10 in targets. He'll get volume. He's a fine volume-based top 24 finishing option, but again, I don't know if he will have a super meaningful like wide receiver 12 type finish from this spot. He should be just fine. I would prefer the younger upside swings ahead of him, though.
Then we get to our wide receiver 3s tier. These guys aren't high-end, but still guys that I feel fine in my wide receiver 3 spot with. First up, Roman Wilson. You just saw it. Really good per-route reception perception metric. 71st percentile versus man, 87th percentile versus press. I think that he is a really strong perimeter receiver in the NFL. You kind of have to throw out what happened in year one. Rich Rebar had a really good stat from, I believe, Sharp Football Analysis that Roman Wilson ran 144 routes without a target. That means on 144 routes, either a sack, scramble, tipped pass, or throwaway resulted on the play. Meaning that his per-route metrics were never going to be good in that environment. That was about 25% of his routes. Also, about 44.8% of his total volume on the season was deemed uncatchable. Brutal season. But now we have Ben Johnson, year two, Caleb Williams. He will go as far as Caleb Williams takes him, but I believe that that could be a really nice high-end wide receiver 2 style finish for Roman Wilson in a true breakout season.
Then we have Ricky Pearsall, another year two breakout candidate. He is pretty much the last man standing in this receiver room. You have Aiyuk with the ACL. You have Jennings calf/contract holdout. It's really just Ricky Pearsall. He is another guy like Wilson where I'm throwing out his rookie year stats. He was shot. That's as simple as you really have to say it for Slick Rick here. He's another guy who crushed his reception perception, 83rd percentile versus zone, 76th percentile versus press as a really savvy route runner as early as year one. And he did finish the year strong. He had eight catches, 141 yards, and a touchdown in week 17. In week 18, six catches, 69 yards, and a touchdown.
Uh after that, we have a rookie in Malachi Corley. He finds himself at this point as the wide receiver 1 in Las Vegas's 11th best projected scoring offense. Jayden Reed is in a boot. Romeo Doubs is in trade rumors. Well, I guess they already did the Michael Parsons trade. So, I think Romeo Doubs is staying, I suppose. But Malachi Corley's going to be out there in two wide receiver sets, run all the routes, rookie upside attached to Jordan Love. I think that he is a great pick inside the top 36.
Then we have wide receiver 37. Just kind of a yucky, stinky wide receiver player here. But is a really good player, man. I can't stress that enough. Next to his other classmates who are going three to four rounds ahead of him. He has a better career yards per route run than both Garrett Wilson and Drake London over their careers. 25.4% targets per route run matches Drake London. 10.9% first downs per route run matches Drake London. Chris Olave is a stud. It just comes down to concussions and it comes down to this passing offense being passable. Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough is a rough combo. But with Kellen Moore, they are projected for the 12th most pass attempts by Mike Clay. There should be enough volume and he should be a good enough player attached to Kellen Moore to still be somebody you can start and feel good about in your wide receiver 3/flex spot.
Then our last receiver in this tier is Jerry Jeudy. As like wide receiver 3s, I feel good about starting as soon as week one. Similar deal as Olave. Not pretty. He's on the Browns, but Joe Flacco should keep things afloat here. I will say who knows how long until it's Dillon Gabriel's turn or it's Shedeur Sanders' turn and that's when things could get really really ugly for Jerry Jeudy but until then he was the wide receiver 21 in points per game last year he was at 1,200 plus receiving yards the only other receivers to hit 1,200 plus receiving yards Jamar Chase, C.D. Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas, Drake London, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Neighbors and Jerry Jeudy. So, this is kind of why I don't value your DeVonta Smith, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley types is because you can get the more boring options later like a Jerry Jeudy who also has a wide receiver 24 in points per game finish written all over him. It's not going to be super pretty, but he is somebody that is a high floor option as well much later in your drafts.
Now, we go to wide receiver 4s. These are guys that I'm not really trying to have start for me really when we talk about strategy of fill your wide receiver spots through the flex plus one or two. These guys are my plus one or two type options. First up at wide receiver 39 we have Jauan Jennings. Now he's really difficult. He avoided the injured reserve which is good but he still hasn't signed a contract. There's still some calf issue stuff. I think most of it is around the contract but this is somebody who was really good last year in terms of points per game. He was the wide receiver 25. He was the wide receiver 16 in yards per route run. Wide receiver 14 in first downs per route run. Wide receiver 12 in targets per route run and the wide receiver 16 in PFF grade. And I have him now as my wide receiver 39 which feels more than fair in a good offense in San Francisco.
Uh then we have Jordan Addison. Similar deal to Rashee Rice where he would probably be for me in this area if not for the suspension but of course he gets suspended. He's going to be out for the first three weeks. Yes. Do they trade for Adam Thielen? I'm not all that concerned about it. I think Adam Thielen will be fine, right? He'll probably be in that like that 600-800 yard range as a slot receiver, but Addison has produced in this offense. That's to Justin Jefferson the entire time. I think that he should be absolutely fine. He was the wide receiver 22 in points per game last season. He should be somebody that flirts with wide receiver 2, wide receiver 3 numbers this season.
Wide receiver 41, we have Deebo. I It wouldn't shock me if he had a little bit of a bounce back here. He's in the same draft class as Terry McLaurin and D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown who are all way up higher than this. If Deebo Samuel could bounce back in an offense with Kellen Moore who wants to feature him where they traded away Brian Robinson who yes is a big deal for Bijan and it's a big deal for Ekeler. We're going to see a lot more Deebo rush attempts as well because of that move and this is going to be a top five scoring offense. He's attached to Jayden Daniels. Kellen Moore seems to want to use him in a manufactured touch role. So Deebo could be a guy who finishes way ahead of where I have him ranked here.
Wide receiver 42, why Stefon Diggs? Some people are really excited about him and have him in this area. He's 30 plus coming off an ACL tear. I have a really tough time buying into that. But he is Drake Maye's number one wide receiver. I am sure that all the reports are positive and he looks great, but we'll see what it looks like when we put the pads on and he goes out there week one in this offense.
Then at wide receiver 43 we have Jakobi Meyers. This is a weird one because he's also another high floor option, right? Like he is probably going to sleepwalk his way to a wide receiver 25 to 30 finish, but he did request a trade, but I think he's just going to stay on the Raiders and be fine is kind of my overall outlook on that situation.
At 44, we have Josh Downs. He hit 14 plus points per game, which would be like a mid wide receiver 2 season. in his games without Anthony Richardson last year. Of course, now we have Daniel Jones starting at least early on in the season. And Josh Downs is a nice year three breakout candidate. I'll also put his teammate Pittman next to him who had an injury-riddled season last year, but he should benefit from Daniel Jones. Before that, we've seen him hit 100 plus receptions as a fine wide receiver 2. He could easily bounce back.
At 46, we have Khalil Shakir. Khalil Shakir is probably too low. He's a solid player on a high-end offense, but also he was the wide receiver 33 in points per game last season. Maybe he's tapped out, but also maybe he can push for like a thousand plus yards and eight plus touchdowns in this offense. They're just very run-heavy despite being a high-scoring offense.
Then at wide receiver 47, we have Jayden Reed. If he was healthy, he'd be somewhere in like this area, but he's got some weird stuff going on. He might even be too highly ranked here. This is kind of the report from Matthew Betts here. Few thoughts on the Jayden Reed Jones fracture. So, he has a Jones fracture. I think that that's like the bottom of the pinky toe. It's not good. They're going with a non-surgical approach. Docs wouldn't let him play practice if the break wasn't showing signs of healing. Question for me is when did the fracture happen if recent high re-injury risk in season? What stresses the fifth? I mean, now we're just we're getting crazy, but I don't know. He said highly highly volatile situation heading into the season, assuming these reports are accurate. So, I don't know. I I don't know if he plays week one. He's going to have high risk of re-injuring things during the season. Things are getting very spooky with Jayden Reed. So that's where I have him. Wide receiver 47.
Then we get to my depth pieces. And here we have Luther Burden as my wide receiver 48. And this is where I'm swinging on upside. When we look at the league winners in fantasy football over the last eight or so weeks of the season, right from weeks nine on of a fantasy football season, a lot of times rookie wide receivers come alive where we've seen Elijah Moore hit 20 plus points per game here. Amon-Ra St. Brown 19 plus, Tank Dell 18.9. We've seen Brian Thomas last year at 17.8 points per game over this stretch. Waddle 17.5. Ladd 16.6. Even Jayden Reed who we just mentioned 16.2 points per game over the final stretch of his rookie year as a legitimate league winner. I think Luther Burden presents that upside. He's a rookie prospect that I liked a ton. He's a top 40 pick. You find himself on a Chicago Bears offense. That should be fun this year.
Similar deal with Jalin Hyatt. Rookie upside top 40 pick of Tennessee. C.J. Stroud. 50th we have Cooper Kupp. I don't know. He's probably watched. He's been on a steady decline at this point. He's the second option in a run-heavy offense, but I don't know. There is some upside that he is still Cooper Kupp. I I would be shocked though.
Then we have Keon Coleman. Year two breakout potential on this Bills offense, but he had a pretty rough year one and he's kind of playing out of position as a true X wide receiver there.
Then we have wide receiver 52, Rashid Shaheed. He was a top 24 wide receiver before injury last year, but now we have a brutal quarterback situation next to Chris Olave. We'll see how that goes.
53. Dalton Kincaid is dealing with an injury that might have him out week one, but he should be solid. He was wide receiver 34 in points per game last season. He's absolutely a wide receiver flex wide receiver low-end wide receiver 3 style option if healthy and if Penix can go.
Then we have Chris Godwin. This is where I would put him despite knowing yes like week five or later is rough but at a certain point like we're getting it's getting pretty bare in terms of names here. So if you want to take him stash him on your IR like maybe by fantasy playoffs he's usable he is out there. Or actually, you know what? Live live on on camera here, we're actually gonna put Adonai Mitchell ahead because I think Adonai Mitchell is actually kind of safer. I I I feel better about Adonai Mitchell's ACL than I do about Chris Godwin and his injury. So, actually, we're going to put Adonai Mitchell ahead of Godwin where I think Adonai Mitchell yes, he tore his ACL, maybe he'll be back later, but I think it'll be a more smooth recovery where Godwin has a lot more questions about how his recovery has been. There was a setback and a surgery and things are all over the place for him and the reports have only gotten worse despite missing out on the PUP list.
Then we have wide receiver 56 Marvin Mims. He's been great on a per-route basis. We now have Jerry Jeudy out of town, but I've seen this story before where somebody has an amazing yards per route run, an amazing targets per route run, but on like 40% of the routes, and then if that gets ratcheted up to 80% plus of the routes, it's not going to carry over one for one. He has some year three breakout potential here, but I would be wary of Marvin Mims.
Then we get to our high floor options of Keenan Allen first at wide receiver 57. He was the wide receiver 31 last year. He is a high floor option attached to Justin Herbert. He's somebody where if you draft a Rashee Rice or an Addison, you can definitely prioritize Keenan Allen as an early season producer.
Same vibe with Christian Kirk. He's been solid over his career. He should be an early season starter for the Texans.
Then we have Jalen Coker from 59. More of an upside play here. The gone. Coker had a better yards per route run and a better first downs per route run than every rookie wide receiver not named Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey or Malik Neighbors. He was an absolute stud last year and I think Bijan getting traded pretty much puts it in stone that Jalen Coker is going to matter this season.
And then our final rookie upside pick is Drake Maye. Upside swing of Drake May. But he could absolutely be an absolute zero this season. But that is going to do it for us today. Okay, that is my top 60 wide receiver tier list. The deepest we've ever gone in record time, 40 minutes, damn near on the dot. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and my final top 200 cheat sheet for you guys to use in your drafts this weekend or in your drafts this week. Check out patreon.com/ronstewart. Use my top 200 rankings, my tiers, my target rounds for every player. So, if you have a question of like, okay, well, Nico Collins is your wide receiver 5, but how do you like him versus a guy like Ashton Gentry? Those answers are are all found on the Patreon, patreon.com/ronstewart. Only $10. Go win your draft. Use the rankings I use myself. But if not, appreciate you all watching. Subscribe, leave a like, and I'll see y'all in the next one.
[Music] Yeah. [Music] Stones. I like frozen.