เฮียวิทย์ อ่านศึกสหรัฐฯ VS อิหร่าน สะเทือนจีน ศึกนี้ใครได้-ใครเสีย? | THE STANDARD NOW (HL)

I want to know about various topics, so I will ask Uncle >> Uh >> But just now, the Chinese Foreign Minister said that this war >> No one benefits or has a winner >> Only losers >> Uh-huh >> But Uncle told me privately that the fighting is not over yet >> There are already winners and losers, we'll talk about that later, but first, I'll start like this >> Let's put it aside for now, let's put it aside >> I've been watching Uncle, Uncle likes to start like this >> No, but, but, but let me say first that today's discussion, Uncle has been following the news just like everyone else. Mostly, we get information from the West as the primary source, because we ourselves may not be able to follow news in languages like Farsi, Persian, or Arabic as much as people in the region. Therefore, when we get news, sometimes Uncle always has to check where the news is coming from >> And then process it from many sources, because we are a country that is affected, but not a party to the conflict >> So, we will process what we can gather. Another part is the input from the other side, which is the economic dimension, right? >> Yes, because Uncle also wears the hat of Morning >> Because everything is interconnected, including economics, geopolitics, and economics >> I'll start like this, brother, sister, or people I meet, I remember they ask me >> I wonder if this question is old >> But it's probably not old because they keep asking >> Uh-huh >> Going back to the very beginning of this region >> A simple question, but actually difficult to answer, is >> How is Iran important? >> Uh >> Why does America >> want or engage in full-scale military operations like this? >> Uh, if we look at the Middle East region, it's a region full of resources, right? >> Yes >> 1 is the issue of oil itself, and the United States itself considers this region, the Middle East, the term Middle East >> means from the easternmost edge of the Mediterranean >> Yes >> Which includes Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. If we look at the Mediterranean Sea, it's at the top of the Arabian Peninsula, the largest mountainous area >> Yes >> all the way to Iran. The United States also views this region as its sphere of influence >> Of course, when there is a sphere of influence, there must be allies >> Yes >> And historically, the main allies have been Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran >> I must say that this was the case historically, before the events, if I heard Uncle on many programs, including the movie Argo >> It was the Shah of Iran >> Ah >> That was an ally of the United States >> Iran was also an ally of the United States at that time >> Simply put, an ally >> Uncle would call it an ally. That area has been important since the British started, the Burma Oil Company discovered the first oil wells in Basra, in northern Iran >> After that, the world in World War I began to use more oil >> And after that, crude oil became increasingly important. The United States expanded its influence. You ask, who was the sphere of influence before? >> Looking back before World War I, it was entirely the Ottoman Empire >> Ah >> After the Ottomans collapsed, there was a short period of British and French influence >> After World War II, the United States saw this area as its sphere of influence. If we look at the news, there's a phrase we hear that Donald Trump tried to use the Monroe Doctrine >> James Monroe was president, if I remember correctly, the 4th or 5th president of the United States. In the early days of the United States, he said that South America was a sphere of influence >> The concept of dividing spheres of influence started around there >> Uh >> This is a different region, coming to the Middle East, saying this is its sphere of influence with natural resources >> Which is mainly oil >> And if this part can be managed, it will be another part >> in strengthening the economy and security of the United States in the global context >> Uh >> After World War II, there were 3 very strong allies >> Yes >> 1 is Israel. Israel is a very small country >> Uh >> Smaller than, say, with a population of about 10 million people. The country is about one and a half times the size of Korat >> Uh >> Saudi Arabia, which is very large, about 3 million square kilometers, and Iran, about 1.5 million square kilometers >> These are the 3 original allies >> 3 original allies that were strong, large, and powerful >> So this area became important, and they were closely allied with these 3 nations in the past >> Ah, as time went by >> Uh >> If we look at the news now, it's not surprising to connect it to the present a bit >> Uh >> The word "base" of the United States >> Uh >> Why are there US military bases scattered across various countries in this region? Because it's considered a zone >> But now, and before the war, it's like the US lost allies, right? >> Because of OPEC, and it seems like only Israel is left as an ally of the United States >> Uh >> Right? >> I'll go back a bit. In this area, where there were 3 allied nations >> Israel, this is important >> Don't forget that many Jews emigrated to the United States, and after World War II, they asked for that land, which was a promised land >> Ah >> Yes, it was a land for the Jewish people, mostly from Europe, who moved there >> And the United States provided protection, a major ally. A very important area. Why is it important? Because before today, the leader of the Arab world was not Saudi Arabia or Iran >> Who was it? >> It was Egypt >> Ah >> Under Gamal Abdel Nasser. I'm going back to the past >> After the war between Israel and the Arab League, Saudi Arabia became a strong ally because after Saudi Arabia established its state after World War II, after World War I, the United States, through Standard Oil of California, obtained concessions to drill for oil >> Uh >> They drilled and found it, which brought wealth to Saudi Arabia >> But a small point, although Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States, just like Iran was an ally, their positions are different. Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States but is extremely strict in its adherence to Islam >> Ah >> If you observe the Saudi Arabian flag, yes, yes, you will see the Shahada, which is the declaration of faith for Muslims to become Muslims. And as many people see, there is a sword below, indicating strictness, and green is the color of religion >> Uh >> Meanwhile, Iran was a region ruled by a king who wanted to develop the country towards modernity like the West >> Yes >> Therefore, these are the 3 regions that the United States has overseen for a considerable period. Because this area has crude oil, it became an area where the United States had a supply chain for oil exports. In the past, foreign companies were involved in oil extraction. For example, the Saudi Arabian oil company, originally Aramco >> Uh >> a joint venture between Saudi Arabia and the United States. But later, Saudi Arabia bought all the shares. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side >> the oil company was formerly the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, a joint venture with Britain >> Yes >> But ultimately, Iran wanted to nationalize it, and Britain and America did not agree, so they staged a coup against the democratic government of Iran and installed the Shah as the leader of the country >> Yes >> And the Shah was a very close ally of the United States. And the Shah's stance was the same: a leader who wanted modernity like the West >> If anyone watches the news, they will feel like, oh, in the past, Iranian women wore fashionable clothes >> They could study. Western media likes to present Iran in the past as modern, but actually >> Actually, it was hidden by political alliances with the superpowers. It's just that their stances were different. Exactly >> Yes, yes, yes, it's very clear. Simply put, there were 3 close friends >> So, what was the turning point from then to now? To be very direct, it was that from very close friends, the Shah was eventually overthrown by popular movements >> Abdicated at the end of 1978 >> Yes, after which the country changed its regime from monarchy to Islamic Republic >> by Ayatollah Khomeini >> Khomeini returned from France to Iran in February 1979 >> And declared that Westernization was a toxic influence >> Uh >> on Iran >> Yes >> From being a close friend >> it turned into an enemy of the United States >> Uh >> So, from the security that existed, it was an alliance throughout the region >> Yes >> it became a fractured alliance and turned into enemies from that day on, and there were additional catalysts, which we will discuss later. But this is the basis of why they were once friends >> and became enemies. But if you listen to Uncle's story, Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in 1979 >> Uh-huh >> and his successor came to power >> Uh >> and it continued until today. Many decades have passed >> Why did the United States only recently engage in military operations to take over this region? Why haven't they been interested in this before? >> Actually, if you ask, I'll try to list it chronologically. When we look at Iran, there have been Supreme Leaders up to the present >> Yes >> Ayatollah Khamenei, who is the second son of Ayatollah Khamenei >> Yes >> There have only been 3 Supreme Leaders >> The first was Ayatollah Khomeini. The second was this person >> who recently passed away >> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Their names are similar. Two people, and when he passed away, it was his son who was confirmed >> Yesterday, it was 3 people >> Yes, during that time, how did the United States feel? It has always been uncomfortable, especially with what I'm about to tell you: Iran took 66 American embassy staff hostage >> Since April 1979, which is 2 months later >> Uh >> But during that time, what did the United States do? Let's see. They boycotted Iran >> Uh >> Stopped trading with them >> Yes >> Condemned them, accused them of having nuclear weapons >> all the time, but there were no open operations >> There might be other more important reasons >> Yes >> Like the case of Iraq's invasion >> Yes >> Or various situations. But in the past, they haven't been friends >> Uh >> They've never been friends, and there have been retaliations all along. Iran is a country that has been blacklisted. Just think about it, Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of the owner of Huawei >> Yes >> was arrested in Canada because Huawei traded with Iran >> Oh >> It's not related, it's not a close connection. Anyone who deals with Iran will be blacklisted. So, it doesn't mean it's good, but this timing seems right. But I must say, before this day, I'll go back a bit. You must not forget that in June last year, there was an attack between Iran and Israel >> Ah >> Do you remember? Yes >> These two countries, I must say, these two countries do not share a border >> Uh-huh, if you look at the map again, they are far apart >> If you look at the map, they are about 3,000 km apart >> Yes >> They fired missiles at each other. You see? >> Iran is the large white area on the far right >> While on the far left, north of Egypt, is a small triangular country >> Uh >> bordering the dark Mediterranean Sea >> Uh >> About 3,000 km apart, they fired missiles at each other >> Because before explaining why Israel sees Iran as an adversary to both the United States and Israel, and provides support to groups that are adversaries of Israel >> Ah >> Let's call these groups the 3Hs >> Yes >> for easy memory >> Uh >> 1. Hezbollah >> A moment ago, you saw a picture of the leader of Iran sitting and talking with the leader of Hezbollah, an armed group in Lebanon >> Yes >> And Lebanon shares a border with northern Israel >> Uh >> In addition, another group is Hamas >> Hamas is an armed group of Palestinians, who are the original owners of the land >> Yes >> in the current territory of Israel >> And the Israel-Hamas war occurred. 3. The Houthis >> The Houthis >> If we look at this map, the yellow area at the southernmost tip of the peninsula is Yemen >> Ah >> So Israel says our lives are not peaceful >> Uh >> Because we have been facing these 3Hs all along: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis >> Exactly, called 3Hs for easy understanding. And these 3Hs are consistently supported by Iran >> Is this fact or claim? >> It's likely a fact, because of the picture you saw a moment ago, the yellow area with a green symbol, that's the flag of Hezbollah >> Uh >> So, there has been constant friction, and Israel wants to solve this security problem. I must say, there is no right or wrong, it's a conflict >> of two sides. So, what happened was in June last year, when the two sides clashed fiercely >> After the clash, it was like a show of strength. Do you remember? It was less than a month, right? >> Yes, yes >> After that, they disappeared and came back to launch a new operation now. >> At that time, the world saw Israel's Iron Dome working at full capacity, from that incident >> Exactly, exactly. That incident showed us that when we talk about war between the United States and Iran, we cannot ignore Israel's security. Because this time, the warring parties are 2 against 1. The United States and Israel on one side >> Ah >> against Iran on the other side >> That's right >> Now, before going into the details of the war, I want to invite you to understand the whole world, to understand this man, Donald Trump >> Uh >> Donald Trump, what is his strategy, or how does he think? Some people say he's crazy >> Uh >> But I don't think so >> Uh >> What are the reasons, inspirations, or his long-term vision for this military operation of Trump? How do you see it? >> I must say frankly, I can't read his mind, but here's the thing >> When Donald Trump entered the Oval Office, the oval-shaped office >> the oval-shaped office, you will find that there are only pictures of 2 former presidents >> Yes >> So, he removed everyone else. And those two people, the first one must be there. The first one is George Washington >> who declared independence from the British Empire. The second is this person >> Uh >> Ronald Reagan >> Yes >> Ronald Reagan was president in 1980, around January 20th. Why remember January 20th, 1981? >> Yes >> And there are many policies that Donald Trump greatly respects >> 1981 coincides with the day Iran returned all hostages to the United States >> Exactly, January 20th, 1981, a few hours before Ronald Reagan, the person in the background, do you see? Actually, there are two other Founding Fathers, like Thomas Jefferson, but the largest picture behind Donald Trump >> is Ronald Reagan, from the Republican Party >> Does that mean he respects him a lot? >> He respects him a lot >> Yes, during that time, the event that caused the animosity between the United States and Iran to arise today, after Ayatollah Khomeini, the first person >> came to power >> Two months later, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran >> entered the US embassy, found many documents, and realized they had to do something with the US embassy and took hostage all the people in the US embassy, a total of 66 people >> Yes, these 66 people, later 52 people >> Let's say these 52 people were held for 44 days. America tried to go in >> to rescue them, but >> tried to go in and help, but was unsuccessful. They negotiated and agreed >> Uh >> and released the 52 people on the day Ronald Reagan was sworn in. And Ronald Reagan said in his first speech that whoever does this to American citizens will face severe consequences >> Uh >> Just imagine, holding 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days >> over a year >> For America, this is considered a deep wound >> Uh >> Notice, anything that attacks even one American citizen is not tolerated >> Yes >> In the past, there has been animosity all along. And this time, I don't know if it's a coincidence or not. I just put up the picture, and I keep looking >> I put up the picture, I have to look. This big >> This big, and when I walk, I see this picture regularly. But anyway >> The long-standing feeling of discomfort, plus the fact that an ally, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel >> said, "Brother, brother, join me." Trump did not join the first operation in June, do you remember? >> The second operation, this time they joined >> A moment ago, at the beginning, Off said >> Uncle said there was a winner >> Uh >> The first winner is this person >> Benjamin Netanyahu >> Israel has won? >> Israel has won. Why? Because if Israel's equation, its end game, is to reduce Iran's power >> Uh >> They have succeeded in reducing Iran's power >> Suppose Iran has 100% power >> Yes >> Suppose 60% is gone >> Uh >> Is it still better than Iran having 100% left? >> Exactly >> In terms of supporting the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas >> They will definitely weaken >> These 3 groups will automatically weaken >> So it's not surprising if global stock markets rise, except for the Israeli stock market >> Uh >> Why? Because it's a guarantee of security >> Ah >> And let's go back a bit. If anyone remembers >> Yes >> Before this attack began, and before the Hamas-Israel conflict began in 2023 >> If Off remembers, I want everyone to recall this, because it's very important. It was a time when Benjamin Netanyahu was being protested by millions of people >> Uh-huh >> because they wanted judicial reform >> Yes >> Normally, the government cannot interfere with judicial appointments, but there was a proposal to amend the law to allow judicial appointments. The protests dragged on for about 9 months until finally, in October, the Hamas incident occurred, launching an attack on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. Everyone forgot that issue and turned back to security >> fighting Hamas instead >> From the prolonged events in October 2023 to this point, has Israel's security increased since the start of this war until now? >> It has definitely increased >> Clearly >> Uh >> So, it's very clear that Israel's security has clearly increased >> As for America's end game, Uncle doesn't know >> Ah >> But Israel's end game is like this >> At least the enemy or those who support the 3Hs are >> weaker >> weaker >> definitely weaker, definitely more secure >> definitely weaker. Now, what about the super end game? >> Yes >> This is what Donald Trump said: changing the regime >> Ah >> changing the regime to >> not a regime that is hostile to Washington and Tel Aviv >> Yes >> But whether it can be changed, I don't know >> Uh >> Whether it can be changed, I don't know >> Yes >> Now, another winner. Let's look at the economic dimension. This is F. Mas >> traveled to meet Donald Trump. Another dimension is the economic dimension >> Yes >> Yes, the economic dimension now. Donald Trump, of course, doesn't want oil prices to be high >> Why? >> Suppose, suppose, Off, you are the leader of a country >> Yes >> Suddenly, the price of diesel at the pump goes from 29 baht to 30 baht >> Tomorrow, you have to get up and announce that tomorrow diesel will be 40 baht per liter >> Uh >> Will you lose popularity? >> Definitely lose popularity >> Definitely >> Uh, people will criticize you all over social media >> America is like this >> Suppose tomorrow they say tomorrow gasoline, 91, gasohol will be 50 baht >> Donald Trump will face the same thing >> Ah, but he's waging war, attacking Iran, oil must be expensive, right? >> Ah, okay. Notice, today, the day we are talking, the oil price this morning, when the Morning Well report was made, was $115 per barrel >> I must say, people get confused when they see oil prices >> Confused >> 60 is normal >> Ah, 60 is the standard. 60 is what we use >> $60 per barrel >> $60 means, suppose the diesel price is 30 baht per liter, the oil fund doesn't have to pay us >> Okay? But if it's 70 or 80, then the oil fund has to pay out of its own pocket >> to compensate >> Now it's 115 >> 115. But it's funny. At 115, do you know what Donald Trump did? >> Donald Trump told India, "India, you can now buy oil from Russia." Before that, he boycotted and forbade India from buying oil from Russia, do you remember? >> I remember. Russia invaded Ukraine, so there were economic sanctions >> Exactly >> Ordered allies not to trade, not to buy oil >> Ah, and believe it or not, after that, Europe released its oil reserves. This morning, in the Morning report >> Yes >> At 7:00 AM, it was $115. Now, as we are talking, it's $100 >> Uh, it dropped by $15 rapidly >> Because they don't want it to be prolonged >> Uh >> for a long time, because it puts pressure. Because in November this year, there will be midterm elections >> Midterm elections are like, if things are expensive >> Uh >> Suppose oil prices go over 100 for a long time >> Yes >> Trump won't benefit >> Uh >> Expensive goods, we are familiar with that, just like in our country. How is the country managed? >> Uh >> Yes, unless Donald Trump has another plan in mind >> Yes >> For example, high oil prices benefit energy companies. We don't know >> But if we look at the game we see now >> If it's like this >> The one who smiles sweetly because they can sell oil comfortably is >> Putin >> Putin >> Before, Putin got $60, $70. It was very important to sell at a low price >> Uh >> Why? >> You have to be brave enough to talk to Donald Trump and say >> "Brother Trump, I love you >> Uh, but I have to buy oil cheaply for my people." That's India >> Ah >> But from now on, you don't have to care about anyone. America told India >> Because Trump himself said you can buy from Russia >> Prime Minister Modi, you want to buy, right? You can buy now. What is Russia saying now? >> Yes >> "I won't sell for 70, I won't sell for 80, I'll sell for 100." >> Uh, they're jacking up the price like that >> Are you smiling? Are you smiling? So, at least >> But Modi is not smiling. >> Modi, but at least there is energy security >> Ah >> Ah, there is energy security. So, we see that now, everyone has their own game and has gained something. I'm not saying it's the end game, but it's a part of what each country gains >> Yes >> As for those who might >> If someone gains, someone must lose >> Ah, those who might be in trouble and are not on the battlefield, but we will talk about them later >> Yes >> China >> Uh >> This is Uncle's perspective, Uncle's economic perspective >> Yes >> Economically, imagine Off has a vehicle for making a living. Suppose Off drives a pickup truck, a 1-ton pickup truck >> Off drives, Off makes a living, but what Off has to pay is for energy >> Uh-huh >> China is moving forward with energy. It turns out that one of its batteries, Venezuela >> Because before, China bought oil from Venezuela >> Yes >> The United States arrested Maduro. Okay >> Ah >> The first battery is gone >> Yes >> The second battery, India buys oil from Iran because it never cared about the US boycott >> Yes >> The second battery is gone, right? Uh >> Is China having trouble? >> It's difficult >> So now it's possible that they are buying more oil from Russia, but it's an additional burden >> Uh >> So, looking at each part, we see who gains and who loses. Trump might have other plans, Uncle doesn't know, but Trump might have other plans >> But this is the picture we see: Israel is more secure, Netanyahu is more secure >> Yes >> Putin can sell oil more comfortably >> Uh-huh >> Prices are higher. China is facing challenges like this. People will ask further, but maybe go back a bit. People will start asking many questions, besides geopolitics or geoeconomics, which is economic interest >> Does the difference in religious beliefs have an impact on this event? >> Uh-huh >> Between whom and whom? >> Between Iran >> who believes in God, Islam >> and the Jewish people of Israel, or even the United States, which is Christian >> Ah >> Is this more significant than economics, or is it about the same? >> Oh, thank you very much, Off >> I would say that in this region, anyone who says the Middle East is rich only because of oil is wrong >> Ah >> One part of these states, I'm not referring only to large states like Saudi Arabia >> but also to smaller states like Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, UAE >> Yes >> These countries are capable of coexisting with all parties >> Uh >> Do you notice? For example, this time Oman was not attacked >> Because Oman can talk to both the United States and Iran >> Yes >> See? Oman is the pink area at the southernmost tip >> Ah >> The purple area is the UAE, the United Arab Emirates, consisting of 7 states within it >> In the beginning, they were attacked, but ultimately Iran said they would stop attacking the UAE and apologized. My apologies >> Diplomacy is very important. On one hand, they buy weapons from the United States, giving the US opportunities >> to make a living >> Yes, they are allies, but at the same time, the Strait has never been closed, except for this time >> Hmm >> This means they can talk to all parties. I must say that Iran is Shia >> Yes >> While the other side of the peninsula, with Saudi Arabia in the center, is Sunni >> Uh >> They can talk to each other >> Yes >> And let's go back a bit. Another country is Qatar, which cannot be ignored because we import the largest amount of LNG, liquefied natural gas, from Qatar. Some people say Saudi Arabia and Qatar are rivals, right? Saudi Arabia is Sunni >> Yes >> While Iran is Shia. But I must admit that in the past, they have coexisted, even though they are rivals and have challenged each other. At one point, the Shah of Iran said that his country was modern, and he invited King Faisal, Ibn Abdulaziz, the third king of Saudi Arabia, and said, "Look at our country. We are modern. Our women wear miniskirts >> Uh >> Our men go to bars." He said things like that. But Saudi Arabia is very good at foreign relations. They can associate with the United States >> Yes >> They can talk to Israel, and at the same time, they coexist peacefully with the Gulf countries >> Yes >> So, if you ask if this is one dimension, it is one dimension that can be discussed >> And look at another country that cannot be missed. Do you see the white color? On one side is Israel, and on the right is Jordan >> Uh >> Jordan can talk to all parties >> Yes >> We must admit that everyone knows that the world can exist amidst differences. But this time, the conflict is not just about religious beliefs >> It's more than that >> Uh, especially about economics, resources >> many dimensions, and geopolitics >> Uh >> Just imagine, if every time there is tension and an incident occurs, and it's said that oil might come out of the Strait of Hormuz >> Is that stressful? >> Very stressful >> Stressful. On one hand, they look >> But I want to talk to Uncle about this. >> If the route can be cleared, wouldn't it be good? Actually, there are mechanisms to clear it. There are mechanisms to clear it, but they haven't been fully utilized. >> Is this what they call it? I want to prepare the viewers. What the world calls geopolitics today >> Uh >> Is this it? >> Actually, the term geopolitics used to be called international relations. But later, it was added. So, when talking about geo, I want to put up a lot of maps. Actually, it's about international relations >> both in terms of good and conflict >> Yes >> Which has actually been happening for a long time, but it has been given a new name >> Yes >> now. But a moment ago, we talked about conflict and geopolitical fluctuations >> Uh >> So, is there a solution? >> Yes >> There is a solution by using engineering >> Ah >> Ah, how? Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, right? >> Ah >> Let's say Saudi Arabia built an oil pipeline across the country from east to west >> Uh >> Saudi Arabia, the green area. We have another picture. Let's move on. Do you see Qatar? Qatar is a country bordering Saudi Arabia >> It comes from that area and crosses to the other side. From the Arabian Gulf, there should be another picture, the one that is here. Do you see the Persian Gulf? >> Yes >> Oil is transported, for example, from Bahrain, from Qatar. It has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz >> Yes >> And then it passes through >> This way, if you don't want to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, why not use the gas pipeline and oil pipeline? >> Uh >> 1,200 km, do you see the blue line? >> Yes >> East-West Crude Oil Pipeline. If it's like this, after extracting oil, it comes into the sea >> And then it goes down. On the other side, the UAE, United Arab Emirates >> Ah >> They have a pipeline too >> No need to go around the Strait of Hormuz, go south to Oman, into the Indian Ocean >> Uh >> This can be done >> Yes >> But so far, no one has transported 7 million barrels of oil per day, according to its capacity. 100,000 barrels per day >> Uh, so it's not worth using the pipeline. It's not being used yet. But now it might have to be used, or not, we don't know when >> Yes >> But are there methods for transportation? Yes >> Using technology to compensate for geopolitical risks >> Yes >> That's it >> Yes >> I want to ask Uncle further. Those who follow the news want to know >> Uh >> About the current situation. >> Uh >> About the advantages and disadvantages. Uncle said the US and Israel are a pair >> Uh >> And then there's Iran, which initially seemed to be ganged up on a bit >> Not a bit, they were ganged up on >> Ganged up on, yes. 2 against 1 >> Yes, 2 against 1 >> Now, if Uncle assesses the advantages and disadvantages of this war, whether it will be prolonged or not, it might depend on the advantages and disadvantages. Which side has more cards? >> I'm not an expert at all right now, and I receive news like everyone else. We receive a lot from the West >> But if we look at the picture we see, it's very clear that the power of the United States and Israel is superior >> Uh >> Clearly. But how superior? >> Uh >> If you can't land troops >> Land troops >> You can't land troops. You use air operations >> and naval operations. But you can't land on Iranian soil. What will you do next? >> Uh >> Uncle gives an example like this. What is this? This is called a floating island, an aircraft carrier.

So, it's an aircraft carrier, from the United States of America, which they sent this time, the USS Enterprise, and the USS Gerald R. Ford, two ships like this. Now, if we see something like this, going back to World War II, Nazi Germany launched an air operation called Operation Sea Lion. They bombed Britain to smithereens. It was a mess. London was a mess. But did they win against Britain? No. Why? Because they couldn't land. Exactly, they couldn't land troops. Therefore, what Donald Trump said, "End of story," he's thinking about ground operations, sending infantry troops. He's saying you can't win by just dipping your toes in. The question is, will there be a ground operation? If there is a ground operation, what people are talking about is that they will talk to the Kurds, an ethnic group in the north of Iran, Iraq, and Syria. And Turkey, they will tell this group, who want their own territory called Kurdistan, "Are you coming? You invade Iran from the ground." Find friends. Yes. Find friends to invade Iran. The Western style of divide and conquer. Find friends to invade Iran, tell them to come in, because Iran is Persian, while the Kurds are another ethnic group. But if, let's say, they use it, okay, they've agreed, they'll send ground operations, send people in. The question is, is the terrain of Iran desert and mountains? It reminds me, like Vietnam. Yes. You can attack from above. But once you go down to the ground, you lose. It's not easy, or you wage a protracted war. Okay, next, another one, they call it the Soviet Union's hell in Afghanistan. Yes. You can attack from the air, but once you go down to the ground, you encounter Afghan fighters, and you can't fight them. It's painful for both. Yes. Would you want that? Let's go back to the Vietnam War. In the Vietnam War, Lyndon B. Johnson didn't lose the war. He didn't lose because of the war itself, but because Americans said, "Why are you sending our sons to die?" "Why are you putting our taxes into bullets?" This is very basic. Sometimes you can lose a war on your own soil. Yes. The question is, if this continues, and if they can't achieve a decisive victory, people will start thinking. Democrats will start thinking, "Hey, oil prices are expensive." "Your children are going to war." "Is this good? What have you gained? Have you gained anything?" If you said you went and oil became cheaper, that would be one thing. But you went and gained nothing. Yes. Therefore, the scenario is, will they proceed with ground forces or not? I don't know. So, right now, this is what I'm watching. What will they use? And in the end, it's possible that Donald Trump said, "Okay, end of story." Has it happened before? Yes. During the First Gulf War. Yes. At that time, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Right. And then the coalition forces were able to drive Iraq out of Kuwait, but Saddam Hussein remained in power, you see? Has this kind of thing happened before? Yes, it has happened. It's called winning a war but not having a regime change. No change in regime. That happened until they achieved a decisive victory again, years later. In 2003, George W. Bush's son, using a different pretext. But has it happened before? Yes. Therefore, it's possible that there will be military operations, sending troops in. Or maybe not. Maybe they won't do it. They might not do it. I'm using history as a comparison. Some people say, "There must be a regime change." Iraq, Saddam Hussein remained in power for another 13 years. It was only achieved later. Or, if they decide to go in, they might succeed, or they might be like Vietnam, or like the Soviet Union and Afghanistan. Yes. But at the very least, we will see the scenario, what options there are. Who knows, maybe he'll suddenly appear and talk to Xi Jinping. In the "I have another plan, Mr. I don't like them a lot." Who knows, maybe it will end. Therefore, many scenarios depend on where Donald Trump's endgame will be. We don't know his mind. We don't know his mind. But I want you to analyze it. Analyze China, since you said China is at a disadvantage now. They have to use resources to buy oil from elsewhere. And will China play a role in healing this or solving this problem? Let's step back a bit. The term "economic defeat." Yes. But also ask, what has happened since last year until Donald Trump took the stage at the Davos World Economic Forum? He announced the "Board of Peace." "Board of Peace." Let's ask, do you think the world's opinion is leaning more towards the United States or more towards China? It's unlikely to be towards the US. Let me say, I'm very surprised, because after that meeting, we saw that Justin Trudeau, the leader of Canada, went to China. The owner of the phrase, "If you're not at the table, you're on the menu." Waiting to be eaten. Straightforwardly, Emmanuel Macron traveled to Yunnan. Okay. Keir Starmer traveled to Beijing. And recently, he traveled there to see robots doing Kung Fu. Everyone said, "Hey, what is this?" Before, China was not a trusted country. This time, we don't know what plan China has. Or what China is thinking. But China is a nation that can turn things around. Consider that everyone is playing a different game. They think like this: The United States, this is what Professor Arm Taninlandron said. The West plays chess. A game of checkmate. China is not like that. They play Go. They can take their time. It's possible. We don't know what China is thinking, but I'm sure they're thinking, calculating, and there must be something, but we don't know. But I believe they must be thinking. However, the matter of the two batteries being removed, this is straightforward. Yes. It means that China must now think about how to manage energy security, how to ensure there is enough energy. Thailand also needs to think about this. Thailand also needs to think about this. Fortunately, Thailand itself, let me add, Thailand has natural gas in the Gulf of Thailand, although not much left, as it has been used since the time of General Prem Tinsulanonda. And we have natural gas concessions in Myanmar. But even though we import LNG mainly from Qatar, we must not forget that during the time Donald Trump told us to negotiate tariffs. Yes. The Ministry of Energy, I remember, if I'm not mistaken, the Permanent Secretary at the time, Prasert, traveled there and spoke, and we would buy energy, which is LNG, from Alaska. Yes. This means that energy is actually available for sale, right? Yes. But it will be a bit expensive. At what price will you buy it? That's another matter. It's not gone, but it's expensive. It's just that the price will be what they call the spot price. The spot price is like putting it on the trading table. "Hey, buy it for 115?" "No, 112?" "No." They look around, "Oh no, our reserve tanks are low." "120, do you want it?" So, it's called over-the-counter, the price at which you say, "How much do you want?" Energy is available. How much will you buy? We have to play the game strategically. I am confident that our country, no matter what, is very good at managing energy security. I don't want people to say we are bad. I don't think that's the case. Because when we face this, we must say that the world has faced oil shocks countless times. Yes. The first oil shock in 1973, the Yom Kippur War. The second oil shock in 1973. At that time, I wasn't born yet. The time when Thai people couldn't watch TV from 6:30 PM to 8:00 PM. They turned off the TV. After that, we faced natural gas shortages. After that, an oil shock, I don't know if you'd call it an oil shock, in 2007-2008, the price of oil was $147 per barrel. Wow, he said. $147. He said $60 was already too much. That was one. We experienced $147. I remember I was driving and saw a Range Rover. Yes. The biggest Land Rover model. The owner got out and looked at the gas pump with world-weariness. 5,000 baht, 1,000. Wow. In that era. I was very surprised. $147. How did it come down to $60? America announced a new energy source called shale oil. Then, oil prices kept falling until they went negative during COVID. And then back up to $140 during the Russia-Ukraine war. In the past, oil prices have been high and low, but we have always managed them. Regarding electricity, let me say a bit more, because it's important. When LNG was very expensive. Yes. We couldn't afford to buy it. Yes. The EGAT used a method: they revived the Mae Moh coal power plant, which had been decommissioned. And high-quality coal, such as anthracite and sub-bituminous coal, is used for electricity, but we don't know. Yes. Therefore, we have managed both electricity and fuel quite well, but we have to admit that we can't cover the sky with our hands. It has to be that way. Therefore, people watching news about the Strait of Hormuz and getting scared and making predictions, perhaps lacking information, thinking, "Wow, if the world's important energy transport routes are closed, there might be no oil." People rush to hoard. But I say history has taught us that this is not the first crisis we have gone through. Exactly. We have gone through it many times. It's just a matter of how we handle it and what the oil price will be. At that time, diesel was 91 octane, 50 baht. That was the toughest. But diesel, they had to cap it. Yes. They had to cap diesel at 30 baht. If I remember correctly, the highest was around 30 baht and 50 satang. Yes. So people complained, but we have to admit that the global energy crisis is worldwide. Yes. It's worldwide. Everyone experiences it, some more severely, some less. Yes. While we are discussing whether there will be ground military operations, Donald Trump announced again that the next target is Cuba. Oh, okay. Cuba again. Why Cuba? But Cuba has been heard of for a long time, close to the US, right? They've been in conflict since the past. 1962. Yes. Okay. Why Cuba now? It's like this: Cuba is what I call, using a martial arts movie term, a pebble in the shoe. It can't make the US suffer greatly. But when you walk, it stabs your foot. If you take off your shoe to kick it out, it hurts. Let's step back a bit. 1961. Yes. Cuba under the dictator Fulgencio Batista, who was close to the US. Yes. Many Americans, white and black Americans, went to do business in Cuba. Black means black. Gray means gray. Businesses like human trafficking, sex trafficking, and so on, came to the US, around Cuba and Florida. It turned out there was a revolutionary force, Fidel Castro and Raul Castro, and an Argentinian, Che Guevara, who rose up, resisted, and overthrew Fulgencio Batista. Yes. At that time, the United States saw it as, "Hey, you're messing with our friend!" "So what do we do?" So they sent forces. It was the era of JFK, John F. Kennedy, to try to overthrow Castro's government. It turned out to be a huge embarrassment because they lost. Lost to a small country. Lost to a small country. In the end, they were very angry. Cuba is not communist now. They turned and said, "America doesn't love us anymore." And who is our friend? They looked around, and there was a phone call. "Hey, Fidel, Khrushchev calling. The leader of the Soviet Union. How about this? Let's poke them a bit. I'll put nuclear missile bases and nuclear missiles in your country." Wow. And it takes 15 minutes to reach New York City. Wow. 12 minutes to New York City. 15 minutes to Chicago. Let's make them shiver. Oh, don't call it poking. This is terrifying. Simply put, it's like sending a boxer with a gun in front of your house. When the president comes out, he'll be destroyed. At that time, after they were set up, JFK had to talk with Khrushchev. It took tens of days of negotiation. At that time, the whole world was dark, a nuclear threat. Yes. The United States could have retaliated, but if they retaliated, as Einstein said, "I don't know what weapons World War III will use, but World War IV will be fought with sticks." Exactly, because the destructive power of nuclear weapons is immense. And after that, Fidel Castro passed away, Raul Castro took over. The next leader was similar, unwilling to yield to the United States. So it became a country that the US couldn't control. Yes. And they don't have resources, they don't have anything. Yes. It's just an island that is strategically located. Very close to Florida. Yes. Therefore, you'll find that there are quite a few Cubans in the US. One of them, who is of Cuban descent, is the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Oh. That's why he looks dark. Marco Rubio's parents were Cubans who moved during the Fulgencio Batista era. Yes. Therefore, having Cuba, and Cuba is not currently a US ally. They are on the opposite side. Those missile launch sites are still there. They were dismantled. After it was finished, they were dismantled. And then there was a need for a special telephone, a hotline. A real hotline, meaning that when there's a problem, the two world leaders can talk directly. Yes. Call immediately. John F. Kennedy to Nikita Khrushchev, talk directly. So that such tension doesn't arise again. But that time, 1962, was the darkest. Because. No. After that, there were no more nuclear threats. If this person says Cuba is the next target, it's to remove the pebble from the shoe. Yes. After what they did in Iran, to consolidate additional alliances. Yes. Now Cuba is the next target. Cuba is in the region, let's call it Central and South America. You have to think of it this way: what he thinks is that this area is off-limits. Yes. One person he tried to pressure, but didn't succeed much, was Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum. She said that one of his agendas is to change the name of the government of Mexico to "G of America." Okay, it's mine. Yes. And that small island called Cuba is right there. Yes. It must be my territory. Panama, where before, China, Li Ka-shing's company, had concessions at the port in Panama, must be mine. Yes. It's America's sphere of influence that they say they must have. This is Trump's game in expanding and maintaining US influence, while China is a new superpower that is also gaining influence in other parts of the world. They are competing like this. They use different games. One believes that ending the game quickly is good. The other might think it's okay, we have a diverse game. Yes. More or less. The fact that many European leaders have traveled to meet with China and talk with China. Yes. It's considered a diplomatic move with a lot of strategy. Yes. I have to say, we don't know. We are outside the room, right? Yes. But they must be thinking about what is the best situation they can achieve. At this situation. Yes. Sir, for my generation, I'll ask at the end. My generation was born in an era of peace. Yes. Yes. The Berlin Wall had already fallen. And I lived. What year were you born? 1990. Oh, okay. One year old. The Berlin Wall fell. Okay. I lived with peace and the United States as the sole superpower. Yes. The world has been normal for a long time. Yes. Yes. Until I'm over 30, why is the world so conflicted? Wars are happening, and people are wondering if World War III will happen anytime soon. Okay. Do you think it will happen? He asks. He wants to step back a bit. I met a Thai person who has lived in Japan for a long time. His name is P' Yai. He owns a Buddhist art shop. He has been in Japan for 30 years. And I asked him, when Shinzo Abe was about to pass a law to allow Japan to have an army again, I said, "Wow, P'." If Japan becomes strong, like in the era of the Japanese Empire, the world will be in chaos. The world after World War II, everyone was made more comfortable. No one wanted to be a soldier anymore. In one era, you see, we had friends of my age, named Jab, Bom, Gun. Yes. It was the era of the Cold War. Yes. The era of the Cold War. Next, the era of prosperity. Everyone was living well. No one thought they needed to fight with military power anymore. No one wanted to wake up one day and say, "I have to go for military training for 6 months and then be stationed in this country." Everyone thought the world was good like this. Yes. So the chance, even for the United States, after the Vietnam War, when they withdrew troops, after they won in 1968, one of the signals was that there would be no more American military intervention. That stopped then. Yes. Because the world had changed. Everyone said, "Make Love, Not War." Yes. Straightforwardly, the American slogan "Make Love, Not War." Yes. Straightforwardly. So, will it happen? It's not easy because of the internal resistance. Yes. The public is not as enthusiastic about war as before. If there is a war, it will be a war that doesn't affect them directly. For example, a drone war. For example, Operation Neptune Spear, where Obama killed Bin Laden. No one was harmed, right? This is using professional soldiers. No need for widespread military use. Limited budget. Yes. This is okay because it benefits Americans. Yes. But if it's a large-scale war and they say, "From now on, your children may have to enlist," it's not like World War II. Yes. So the chance of it happening is not easy. Will it happen and change its form? For example, using technological weapons, fewer people, but still a scale of war where two major powers fight? It's possible, but it will be on a smaller scale. After all, think about it. If people in the past, for America, dared to go. Yes. Now. Yes. Is this the best way? People today and the era of World War are not the same. For example, in World War II, everyone went because of Pearl Harbor. Yes. In Operation Neptune Spear, to fight Bin Laden. That was straightforward. America was attacked on its own soil for the first time. Yes. Yes. But now, everyone is looking for better options. And don't forget that US politics is divided between Republicans. Yes. And Democrats. Yes. For a world war to happen, there must be two major powers linked together, right? If a big nation faces a small nation, the US facing Venezuela, it's unlikely to be a world war, unless someone jumps in, a major power jumps in. But now, everyone is watching. And with the timing of US politics, Trump, let's look at the midterm elections. Yes. How will they be? If there's a change in stance before the midterms, Republican votes mean the president is red. Yes. While the Congress is blue, it's something else. Therefore, the momentum is not the same for World War III to happen. However, in strategic areas, there might be such events. And some people say it looks scary. Don't think like that. Yes. In the past, during the Iranian Revolution, it was very scary. Or even when the civil war happened in Cambodia and Vietnam. Right next door. Yes. We got through it. Yes. We got through it. It's just that nowadays, we read news every day. Before, no one looked at the price of oil per barrel. Now, everyone looks. Now, everyone knows. Knowing everything makes people anxious. Yes. During the oil crisis in 2007-2008, around 2050-2051. Yes. Did anyone notice? It went up every day. Yes. Expensive, but they didn't know what was happening. Yes, yes. So now, because we know more, with knowledge and information, it's about using our intellect to filter. Now, I look back and ask, have we faced anything more severe than that in the past, and how was it resolved? Oh, that's good. This is what I do. We don't know if the future might break all the rules. Yes. But at least, looking at the past. Yes. Mark Twain once said, I like this quote very much. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes." History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. What does that mean? Elaborate. For example, there's war, then there's peace. Yes. When people are well-fed and happy, they don't want to go to war. Yes. This is the basis. But it might not be exact, like Trump must win and it's over. It's not straightforward, but there will be its rhythm. There will be rhythm. For example, war. Trump can wage war only when Americans back him. Yes. For example, I always give the example of the Vietnam War. America lost at home. America didn't lose on the battlefield of Tet Offensive. No, it's not. America lost at home, meaning they couldn't take it anymore. If you watch the movie Forrest Gump. Yes. People said, "Make Love, Not War." Yes. Society has changed a lot. Yes. Yes. And the people. A bit. In that era, there was the hippie era. People seeking. Hippies are people whom we consider the most old-fashioned, the baby boomers. Baby boomers are hippies of that era. Exactly. In modern times. Rebels. Rebels. When the time comes, they learn through time. And now they look at it and say, "It doesn't work." Yes. Everyone has been through it. Yes. Everyone has been through it. Only those born in the 90s might say it's the "New Normal." But for people of my age, someone said, "Vietnam will invade Bangkok." We see it differently. We see it differently. Because since childhood, they said South Vietnam fell, and we were shocked. Because this was shocking. They said it's right next door. Phnom Penh fell. Phnom Penh fell. Yes. April 14, 1975. Yes. 13 days later, April 30, Vietnam. Saigon fell. Scary, right? Yes. Who's next? Us. Bangkok. Because if we look back, oh, there's a rhythm to it. There's a rhythm to it, but we look at the details of each component. Oh, that's good. Lots of information, so it needs to be filtered. Finally, I'd like you to give some advice to those who follow the news, some in detail, some who can't cope with the information and panic. Investors get excited. And maybe they lose their composure or lose money by speculating on gold prices, oil prices. Fill in everything. Give some concluding thoughts on how to watch this news. Most importantly, composure is the most important. When you receive information, don't panic. Yes. I feel that the world has gone through a lot of hardship for a long time. This is another time. Yes. The price of oil today, people wake up shocked, 100. I know it might go to 200. But looking back at the era. More than 10 years ago, $147. It was extremely harsh. Yes. And I have to say that events like this have happened many times. Yes. It's just that we haven't experienced it. So when you encounter it, look far ahead and ask, what will you do? If you are an investor, you ask, how will you manage your portfolio? If you are someone who fills up with gas, you think, just enough. Yes. What is appropriate for you. Yes. Don't think the best thing is to not let emotions get involved. Yes. And a bit more news. When I look at the news later, I have to see where the source comes from. Yes. We watch this news with an open mind. Yes. We must respect everyone's perspective, what they are thinking. No one is a villain, no one is a hero 100%. Look at it, step back, in this context, there's a lot of wind. Where is Thailand? Yes. And focus on our own matters. And receive news and information broadly. Take a deep breath. Because I think composure is very important. Yes. Because sometimes, if you get carried away, that day is lost. You can't move forward in life. Oh. So composure is important. And step back a bit. This is not the first time the world has experienced such events. It has happened many times.