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Hello everyone who follows the Tiger Watch channel. We meet again on Wednesday morning, July 29, 2026. And I must say that today may be one of the most important days for gold holders in many months, because tonight, according to Thailand time, the US Federal Reserve, or the Fed, will announce the results of its crucial interest rate setting meeting. And what makes the global market particularly thrilled is the rapidly increasing chance that the Fed will raise interest rates instead of keeping them the same, which has surged in the past 2 weeks. From almost no one giving it weight in mid-month, it has become a high uncertainty for nearly one-third of the market now. If the results are not as expected by most of the market, gold prices, both in the global market and in Thailand, may move sharply starting tomorrow morning. Therefore, if you already have gold savings or are planning to buy gold in the next few days, this video is something you should not miss even a single minute, because we will update you on the latest gold prices in Thailand, delve into the Fed and global market situation, analyze technical support and resistance levels, open up forecast perspectives from global banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and UBS, to a comprehensive analysis and forecast of gold price direction for tomorrow from all angles. Watch until the end, because at the end, we will summarize the guidelines specifically for those who hold gold for savings. Let's start with the gold prices in Thailand first. According to the latest announcement from the Gold Traders Association, at the closing of the market yesterday, Tuesday, July 28, 2026, at 5:30 PM, the price of 96.5% gold bars closed at a buy-back price of 63,950 baht and a selling price of 64,150 baht. As for the price of 96.5% gold ornaments, the buy-back price was 62,671.44 baht and the selling price was 64,950 baht, which is a decrease of 950 baht from the previous day's closing price, reflecting the volatility that occurred throughout the trading day. On Tuesday, there were several price changes announced, reinforcing that the market is closely monitoring the situation. For this morning, the Gold Traders Association will open its first buy-sell price announcement of the day at the usual time, which is around 9 AM. The price that will be announced will primarily reflect the movement of global gold prices overnight. For global gold prices, or what is called Gold Spot, according to data from the Gold Price Platform against the US dollar, the opening price this morning is around 4,021.12 US dollars per ounce, a decrease of 7.47 dollars, or approximately 0.19%. This is a slight decrease compared to the previous day. The exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar is currently moving around 33.66 baht per dollar, which is a level where the baht is depreciating, close to its lowest point in many months. Here, I want to explain a simple mechanism for viewers to understand why Thai gold prices do not always move directly in line with global gold prices. This is because Thai gold prices are calculated from two main factors: global gold prices quoted in US dollars and the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar. Therefore, even if global gold prices slightly decrease like this, if the Thai baht continues to depreciate, Thai gold prices may not adjust down proportionally, or at some points, they may even move in opposite directions. This is why Thai gold investors need to follow both factors concurrently, not just global gold prices alone. And importantly, the prices announced by the Gold Traders Association are only standard reference prices and do not include the craftsmanship or labor costs for gold shaping, which vary by each shop. Therefore, before conducting any gold transactions, you should always check the price at the shop again. After updating the domestic prices, let's delve deeper into what are the main factors driving the global gold market right now. The short answer is that all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, or the Fed, which is currently holding its Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting. This meeting is held between July 28-29, US time, and the results will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time in the US, which, when converted to Thailand time, will be around 1:00 AM on Thursday, July 30, Thailand time. This means that within a few hours after you finish watching this video, the direction of global gold prices may change significantly. Why is this meeting being watched so closely? The answer lies in the unusually high uncertainty. The probability tool used by global institutional investors, which is CME FedWatch 2 from the website cmeegroup.com, shows that in mid-July, the market assigned a probability of only about 10% for the Fed to raise interest rates. But as inflation and oil prices changed rapidly, the probability figures have climbed rapidly, one of the fastest in years, reaching nearly 40-46% in mid-month, before easing to about 33-38% by the end of last week. Meanwhile, the chance of keeping interest rates unchanged remains the market's main view, at about 62-66%. Most economists surveyed by foreign news agencies still believe that the Fed will likely choose to keep interest rates at the 3.50-3.75% range for the fifth consecutive time. However, such a high level of uncertainty is enough to cause volatility in the gold market, regardless of the outcome. What made the market start to change its view? The first factor is the US inflation figures, which remain at a high level of about 4.2%, far above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. The second factor is the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which caused crude oil prices in the global market to surge above $100 per barrel in the past period, before reports of a temporary suspension of attacks between the two sides late last week, which helped oil prices ease somewhat. However, uncertainty in this region remains a risk factor that the market must closely monitor. And the third factor is that the Fed committee members themselves have begun to signal a more hawkish stance. The minutes of the June meeting, published on the federalres.gov website, indicate that a significant number of Fed members see inflation risks leaning towards the upside, and the median interest rate projection for the end of 2026 has been revised up from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, a shift in view from previously expecting interest rate cuts to the possibility of interest rate hikes instead. Another factor that makes this situation particularly noteworthy is that this is the first meeting of the new Fed Chair, Mr. Kevin Watch, who took over from Mr. Powell and has pledged to communicate policy guidance less in advance than former Fed Chairs, making it more difficult for analysts to predict his direction. Furthermore, foreign news agencies like Bloomberg and Reuters have reported in unison that if the Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged as expected by most of the market, it may only be a temporary measure, as inflationary pressures have not disappeared, and the September meeting may become the real decision point. Meanwhile, the BBC also reported on the views of some analysts who believe that even keeping interest rates unchanged this time does not reflect that Fed committee members are comfortable with the current economic situation. Regarding the relationship between this and gold prices, it is simply explained that gold is an asset that does not yield interest like bonds or deposits. Therefore, as real interest rates in the market rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold also increases, which tends to put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if the Fed signals easing or keeps interest rates unchanged with a less hawkish tone, it is usually a positive factor for gold prices. This is why gold investors worldwide are closely watching the Fed Chair's press conference tonight, one of the most anticipated events of the year. Let's shift our perspective to the Thai gold market. In addition to the international factors just discussed, our domestic gold market also has unique factors that viewers should understand, especially regarding the Thai baht exchange rate, which is currently as important a variable as global gold prices. According to the latest exchange rate data, the Thai baht has been moving in the range of approximately 33.4-33.8 baht per US dollar over the past week, which is the weakest level in many months. And looking back from the beginning of the year, the Thai baht has depreciated by more than 7% from around 30.99 baht per dollar in February. The factors putting continuous downward pressure on the Thai baht include the high level of household debt, the domestic purchasing power that has not yet fully recovered, increased competitiveness with Chinese goods, and the tourism sector that has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic vibrancy. All of these are structural pressures that the Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring. Speaking of the Bank of Thailand, or BOT, data from the bot.org website indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee has resolved to keep the policy interest rate at 1% continuously, which is the lowest level in nearly 4 years, citing the need to support economic growth as the primary reason, rather than tightening to curb short-term inflation. Most recently, at the meeting in early July, the BOT also revised up its forecast for Thai economic growth in 2026 to approximately 2.3%, supported by the technology cycle and the artificial intelligence investment trend, which is bolstering the export and domestic investment sectors. It also stated that Thai inflation is expected to temporarily increase before gradually decreasing in the following year, indicating that the BOT remains cautious and is not in a hurry to change its monetary policy direction soon. The question is, how does this relate to our domestic gold prices? The answer is that as the interest rate differential between Thailand and the US remains wide, and the Fed shows no signs of lowering interest rates soon, it puts pressure on some capital to flow out of Baht-denominated assets, leading to a continued depreciation of the Thai baht. And when the Thai baht depreciates, the consequence is that Thai gold prices, calculated in Baht, receive upward support, even if global gold prices quoted in dollars remain stable or slightly decrease. This is why we see some periods where Thai gold prices do not fall in proportion to global gold prices, or at some points, they may hold up better than expected because the depreciating Baht factor provides some support. In terms of domestic supply and demand, the demand for gold bars for savings by Thai people continues to exist, especially during periods of high volatility in the stock market and other risky assets. Gold is therefore an important option for risk diversification for Thai savers. Meanwhile, there is still demand for gold ornaments from consumers for wearing and as gifts for various festivals, which is a relatively stable structural demand that is not highly volatile with short-term prices. And if you observe the prices of gold bars and gold ornaments in the announcements of the Gold Traders Association, you will see that the difference between the buy-back price of bars and the selling price of ornaments is significantly wider than that of gold bars, which is normal because it includes craftsmanship and production costs. This is something that those considering buying gold ornaments for investment should understand before making a decision, because if you buy and sell them back in a short period, you may face a price difference that is considerably larger than with gold bars. In summary, the domestic factors to watch going forward are the direction of the Thai baht, which will closely follow the outcome of the Fed meeting tonight. If the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged as expected, the Thai baht may stabilize or strengthen somewhat due to reduced concerns. However, if the Fed decides to raise interest rates unexpectedly, the Thai baht is at risk of further depreciation, which will directly affect domestic gold prices on the next business day. Let's move on to the technical analysis section. For viewers who may not be familiar with technical analysis, we will explain it as simply as possible. If we look at the overall picture of global gold prices throughout 2022, we will see that gold has just gone through a period of extreme volatility. After reaching a historic high near $5,600 per ounce in late January, gold prices entered a period of sharp correction, technically known as a steep decline, during February to March, before entering a period of narrow trading range, or consolidation, in the $4,000-$4,500 area for several months. It is currently still trading within this range, recently standing around $4,021, which is about 28% below the previous high. Technically, the $4,000 level is a very important psychological support level because it is a round number and a level that analysts from many institutions, including UBS, have indicated that the market needs to see continuous buying from institutional investors and central banks to maintain prices above this level stably. Below that is the second support level, which many parties are watching at around $3,850. Some analysts believe that if prices pull back to this level, it may be a point where long-term buying interest will return to support the market. As for deeper support levels, in case of extremely severe negative factors, such as the Fed raising interest rates unexpectedly and signaling continued hawkishness, some parties estimate that prices may risk falling to test the $3,500-$3,600 zone in the worst-case scenario, although this is not the primary scenario the market is weighting at present. On the other hand, the first resistance level to watch is around $4,300, which is close to the average level projected by many institutions for the third quarter of this year. Above that is the $4,500-$4,900 zone, which is the year-end target range provided by many major banks. And if these resistance levels can be overcome, it may open the way for gold prices to return to test the previous record high made at the beginning of the year in the longer term. For viewers familiar with technical indicators like the RSI, or Relative Strength Index, its basic function is that if the RSI value falls below 30, it is usually interpreted that the asset has entered an oversold condition, which may be a signal that selling pressure is weakening. Conversely, if the RSI value rises above 70, it is usually considered to have entered an overbought condition, which may be a warning signal that prices have risen too quickly in the short term. The MACD indicator, or a tool used to measure trend momentum, helps investors see whether buying or selling pressure is increasing or decreasing compared to the previous period. Generally, technical analysts use these tools in conjunction with fundamental factors, as discussed earlier, not as the sole decision-making tool, because the gold market is currently highly sensitive to macroeconomic news, especially news from the Fed, which is about to be announced tonight, and can quickly invalidate previously analyzed technical signals if there is a surprise. In simple terms, in the current situation where the market is awaiting the Fed meeting results, technical analysis alone may have temporarily reduced credibility, because fundamental factors like central bank decisions carry more weight in the short term. Therefore, viewers should always consider both aspects together, both charts and fundamentals, rather than sticking to just one side. Next, let's look at the forecast perspectives from global investment banks. What do major financial institutions see as the direction of gold prices for the rest of this year? I would like to reiterate that all of this is merely a future forecast analysis by each institution, not a certainty of what will happen, and it can be adjusted at any time according to the situation. Let's start with Goldman Sachs, which on June 20, revised down its year-end gold price target for 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, from the previously higher forecast of $5,400. The main reason given is that the inflow of funds into gold ETFs in the West has begun to slow down, and the Fed shows no signs of reducing interest rates soon, as the market had previously expected. However, it also stated that if the Fed decides to raise interest rates in this meeting, it is possible that gold prices may fall to test the $4,400 level, if the support from holding for risk protection also decreases accordingly. Next is JP Morgan, which has made significant changes to its outlook in the past month. On February 3, JP Morgan revised down its gold price target for the fourth quarter of 2026 by about 25% to $4,500 per ounce, from the previously set target of about $6,000 in early February. For the third quarter of this year, JP Morgan forecasts an average price of about $4,300. The main reason for this revision is the significant increase in gold prices' sensitivity to changes in real bond yields. However, JP Morgan still maintains a long-term positive outlook, forecasting that gold will enter a new bull cycle in 2027, driven by the diversification of global central bank reserves and strong physical gold demand. In the worst-case scenario, if economic data turns out to be hotter than expected, coupled with the Fed raising interest rates faster than the market expects, JP Morgan warns that gold prices may risk falling to the $3,500-$3,600 zone. Finally, with UBS. Although it has progressively lowered its gold price forecasts throughout this year, from a high of $5,900 to $5,500, and most recently to $5,200 by mid-2027, UBS still clearly maintains a long-term positive outlook on gold. It states that the recent price correction is merely an opportunity for investors to accumulate gradually, rather than a signal to view gold negatively. UBS analysts indicate that if prices pull back to the $3,850 level, it would be an attractive opportunity to increase gold investment allocation. The main supporting factors that UBS remains confident in are the gold purchases by global central banks, which are expected to remain high at approximately 750-1,000 tons throughout this year, as well as the strong demand for gold ornaments from Asia, driven by the increasing income of the region's population. It can be seen that the views of these three institutions differ considerably in the short term, but there is a clear common point: all institutions agree that the Fed's interest rate policy is the most crucial variable determining the direction of gold prices in the short to medium term. In the long term, almost all institutions maintain a positive outlook on gold, driven by the accumulation of purchases by global central banks, which show no signs of slowing down. We have now reached the part that many of you have been waiting for: the analysis and forecast of gold price direction for tomorrow. I want to emphasize again that the content in this section is merely a future analysis and forecast based on currently available data, not a guarantee of the actual price direction that will occur, because the most crucial variable for tomorrow is unknown until the Fed officially announces it tonight. Let's start with the first scenario: the case where the Fed decides to keep interest rates at the previous range of 3.50-3.75%, as weighted by most of the market at approximately 62-66%. In this case, the market is likely to respond positively with short-term relief, as it alleviates concerns about the opportunity cost of holding gold. Global gold prices have a chance to recover and test the first resistance level at around $4,100-$4,300 in the short term. However, viewers should be cautious that if the Fed Chair's statement in the press conference remains hawkish and leaves room for interest rate hikes in the September meeting, the positive momentum from keeping interest rates unchanged this time may not last long, as the market will quickly shift its focus to the risks of the next meeting. For Thai gold prices, if this situation occurs, the Thai baht is likely to receive support to strengthen somewhat. This may cause Thai gold prices to rise by a smaller proportion than global gold prices, due to the strengthening Baht factor partially offsetting it. The second scenario is the case where the Fed decides to raise interest rates unexpectedly by most of the market. Although this is not the primary scenario weighted by the market, it has a probability of up to approximately 34-38%, which is unusually high for a meeting that the market previously considered to be just a routine rate hold. If this situation occurs, the gold market is at risk of facing a rather severe sell-off immediately, as most investors are not fully prepared for it. Global gold prices have a chance to fall and test the important support level at around $3,850, and if the selling pressure is severe and continuous, it may go deeper to the $3,500-$3,600 zone, as warned by both Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. For the Thai market, this situation may come with dual pressure: both global gold prices falling and the Thai baht potentially depreciating further due to a wider interest rate differential, which may help support Thai gold prices from falling as sharply as the global market, but overall, they are still likely to move down in line with the main direction. For the important price levels that viewers should watch tomorrow, on the support side, be cautious of $4,000, followed by $3,850. On the resistance side, watch $4,100 and $4,300 respectively. If prices can firmly hold above the $4,000 level, regardless of the Fed meeting outcome, it may indicate that long-term buying interest from central banks and institutional investors remains strong enough to support the market. However, if it clearly falls below this level, it may be a signal that the market is entering a deeper correction phase. The important thing I want to emphasize before concluding this segment is that regardless of how the Fed meeting outcome is tonight, both scenarios mentioned are merely analytical forecasts for educational purposes. The global financial market reality often has complicating factors that cannot always be predicted in advance, whether it be statements in the press conference, questions from reporters, or other news that may arise in between. Therefore, all viewers should closely follow the news tonight and check the actual prices from the Gold Traders Association again before the market opens tomorrow morning. Before concluding today's video, the Thai Watch channel would like to offer a brief thought for all viewers interested in gold as an asset for savings and risk diversification. Gold has played an important role in preserving the value of savings for a long time, especially during periods of high global economic uncertainty like this. However, like all financial assets, gold prices can rise and fall at any time, and no one can guarantee price direction with 100% certainty. The most important thing is to view gold as part of a well-diversified investment portfolio. You should not put all your savings into any single type of asset, whether it be gold, stocks, or deposits, and you should always study information thoroughly before making any decision. Past returns or performance of gold prices are not an indication or guarantee of the same results in the future. And if any viewer is considering investing a significant amount in gold or is concerned about their financial situation, the channel recommends consulting a licensed financial expert or investment advisor to obtain advice that is most suitable for your specific personal situation. I would like to reiterate that all content in this video is for educational purposes and analysis of publicly available information only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell gold. Every investment decision is solely at the viewer's discretion and responsibility. The Thai Watch channel will strive to present accurate information and cite reliable sources consistently, to serve as a tool for decision-making, not as guidance to make decisions in any particular direction. Finally, the Thai Go Watch channel would like to thank everyone for taking the time to watch the daily gold price analysis video until the end. If this video has been beneficial to you, whether it's about domestic gold prices, tonight's Fed situation, or the perspectives from global banks, don't forget to press like to encourage the team, subscribe to the channel to not miss daily gold price updates and market analyses like this, and most importantly, don't forget to press the notification bell so you receive news immediately when the Fed meeting results are announced tonight and gold prices are updated tomorrow morning. The channel will closely monitor the situation and bring the latest information to you again. See you in the next video. Goodbye.