Transcription
Hello, I hope you are doing well. Today is Sunday, October 5, 2025, it is almost 6:30 AM. I haven't done a market review since last Tuesday, I believe. I preferred to wait for the weekly close, in fact, because I needed additional information, and in this regard, I have some. I don't have all of it, obviously, but I have some. And notably, what I was looking at, and I told you this would really be my priority point of attention, is the dollar's dynamic. And in this regard, what we see here, I find it quite interesting. It's always interesting to observe the price anyway, but look here at what is happening. What has happened, in any case, since the low point of September 17th. After, well, it's a hypothesis that I will present to you, and it's worth what it's worth. Obviously, a hypothesis can be invalidated. If I look at the indices on September 17th, here's what we have. So this is on the Dow Jones. I'll zoom in a bit. Here on the SP500, and I'll also look at September 17th on the NASDAQ. Here's what we have. So we can see that despite some minor dips, at a stretch, I could almost stop, I could almost stop this movement on September 25th. But what we can see is that we have a correlation that has a positive appearance, in fact, between the dollar and risk-on assets. And I could also look at Bitcoin on September 17th. I'll switch to 4-hour as well. And if we take the high point here on September 17th, we can clearly see that through a liquidity movement, we did have an upward trend. And so, for those who want to look a little more closely at this type of theory, I'll refer you to the content of Mentora 2016 by High City, where you'll see that according to Delson, it's often a sign of market manipulation. So we had an upward trend here between September 17th and September 25th on the dollar, which was positively correlated with risk-on assets and risk assets, such as Bitcoin. Therefore, as this could indicate market manipulation, it would corroborate the hypothesis I presented at the beginning of the week, namely that this dollar movement is a fake move and that there is probably still work to be done lower down for the dollar. And so, what could translate in this case, and what we are currently witnessing, is the valuation of risk assets. So indices as well as cryptocurrencies. Well, we can clearly see Bitcoin, it is currently testing its ATH, and we have seen a significant valuation on many, on most altcoins.
Now, if we go back to the chart I showed you here, well, this would somewhat corroborate this idea, a priori, I emphasize a priori, of a bullish October. This is what my data shows me. Now, on the sentiment level, I find it quite worrying, this kind of consensus we can see in the crypto sphere with this famous uptober. So, speaking a bit about crowd psychology, I think that the market needs the crowd to believe in it, and at the same time, for the crowd to believe in it, it will probably happen through something that would justify this saying, this famous uptober. I think that, assuming of course that this movement is confirmed, which seems to be the case for now, we will have to be extremely cautious because I think that at some point, we will certainly be entitled to a surge, and that this surge will probably be very violent, very unexpected, that it will probably be contained but significant. So, exactly as Bitcoin has accustomed us to in the past. So this would be a movement that could be in the order of, I would say, between 20 and 35%. This is what we have observed in previous bull runs, and I think that at some point, we will experience it. Now, I know that from the moment we start trying to predict the future, it's a bit like those who say that a stopped clock eventually tells the right time twice a day. So, well, I'm not saying this to scare you, I'm not saying this to ultimately say "See how right I was" if it happens. But I am wary of consensus, such as the one we can currently observe in the markets. I think the good indicator, if you are in a community, whether it's Discord, Telegram, X, whatever, and you start to see beginners talking about living off trading, for example, or about soon being able to buy such and such an object, maybe anything, a car, a watch, a phone, whatever, that soon they will have the money to do so. I think that will perhaps be an exit signal. There is another indicator that is also quite important, which has proven to be quite wise in the past, which is that when people start talking about taxation, outside of the periods when it is obviously time to declare taxes, and if you see around you people starting to talk about expatriation, tax declarations, etc., in the past, it hasn't missed. I particularly remember May 19, 2021, and when I look at the message history we had on our Discord group, what was happening, the messages, the exchanges that could take place, it's true that we felt that it could happen soon. What I see currently is that we probably have good days ahead of us, in any case, on risk assets, which personally, if I go to the futures market, I would not be surprised at all if the dollar in the coming days comes to work this zone. We'll enlarge this inefficiency zone a bit. So, that is to say, they come to cross all the NVs that we have here, the one from September 7th, August 31st, September 21st, September 14th. And well, I have two scenarios, in fact. I think we will come to work here, that we will consolidate a bit. So between 96.80 [Music] points and, let's say, 97 points, I think the dollar will come to work this zone. I would be very surprised if it leaves this previous weekly low intact. So below 96 points, we have a volume imbalance here which, in my opinion, will also be worked. And where we are, I think this sell-off that is here, so around 95 points, could be worked. But since the movement I'm talking about, which I anticipate, is a movement that could surprise everyone, then it's in a first instance this whole zone that I will actively monitor. Let's say between 96.5 and 97, let's say 97.13. Now, we can also clearly see that this entire confluence of NVs could act as resistance. We see it for now through these wicks, these four wicks. We can clearly see that the price is struggling to go below. So, in short, it's really this zone that I will actively monitor. This will therefore be my focus for the coming days, let's say even the coming weeks. It will be the dollar's dynamic, it will be the positive or negative correlation between the dollar and risk-on assets. And it could also be a signal, to see the dollar start to react upwards in correlation with risk-on assets. It could be the signal that it is soon time, perhaps not to exit, but in any case to take significant profits. So, to be observed. Obviously, the upcoming week will be important, and notably, of course, on Wednesday, October 8th, we will have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. We will have the unemployment figures on October 9th, and we will have the NFP on October 10th. This is quite a terrain that we could consider as a bit mined, in fact. So, we will have to be very cautious on that week. In the meantime, there are probably good opportunities to be seized, despite this market overheating, this sentiment that we might soon reach a point where the market has recovered its losses, it seems very imprudent to try to fight against the current momentum. So, as it stands, my bias remains bullish for now, with a real focus on the dollar's dynamic. I hope this will be useful to you. If you want to discuss it, you have the comments at the bottom of this video. You can also come and chat, join us in our VIP room in the throne. It's free. You can join us with the links you find in the description. And there is also my private Telegram channel where I would be delighted to welcome you and where there is a very active community of traders with great opportunities to share. Have a good end of the weekend. M.