Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto and I hope you are doing well. Despite all the red and liquidation we see on Bitcoin, there are several things to note. The first is that the liquidation is really on Bitcoin. Currently, we have an outperformance of altcoins, meaning they are falling less than Bitcoin. This is also explained, as we will see together, by the fact that there has already been a lot of liquidation upstream on altcoins where there is naturally little liquidity to destroy, and especially because many people are currently buying BTC with leverage to try to play a rebound. But there are other, smarter people who do not use leverage, who are not getting liquidated, who are buying spot, and these are the whales, those who sold the top. We will see this together, it is rather political. I will give you the key levels to watch very closely. In the meantime, the reality is that we have liquidated almost another billion dollars. We haven't stopped liquidating, liquidating, liquidating since October 10th. Here, 720 million longs have been liquidated, 560 million on BTC. This means more than half of the liquidations are predominantly on Bitcoin. This is to show how strong the leverage effect is, which is rather logical because we have very strong margin calls on BTC primarily. These margin calls are the act of requesting a refund of the loan that was made on BTC, and since the short-term holders are deeply in the negative, we are talking about -95% loss, meaning the lowest we have had since the entire BTC cycle. This shows that we will have liquidation problems here, and that is exactly what we are seeing now. And on top of that, we are adding a Nasdaq that is falling in pre-market. And so, we have a strong, powerful momentum here that is taking us, that took us last night and continues to take us. And you will quickly understand in the technical analysis section which supports must not be broken and that there is certainly a pattern we have already seen that is playing out now, and that is the most important thing for the end of the year. In the meantime, join the Telegram, it's free, it's in the comments in the description. We mainly talked about AAVE yesterday, giving you a technical analysis on AAVE at the same time, which announced the launch of its application in Europe, Mika Compliant. And yes, be careful, you can earn up to 9% directly on your stablecoins, on your money. It positions itself as an accessible bank directly with a multitude of bank cards and note the possibility of guaranteeing up to 1 million dollars, unlike our French banks which have a much lower threshold. So again, these are marketing issues, it remains to be seen whether it will pass or not and until when. But in any case, it is interesting to see that things are changing. It is evolving a lot in crypto, and Coinbase is giving us a big tease for December 17th. They updated their bio, and on December 17th, there should be big announcements, big announcements on Coinbase and certainly also on their position regarding crypto in the USA and certainly also on BTC. Well, all of that is the news. Now, let's focus on what is actually happening at the price level. I told you earlier, we have a lot of liquidation, we have a lot of short holders who are in the negative, and on the other hand, we clearly have whales who are buying with an acquisition volume that has only been increasing since the price fell below $100,000. This means that below $100,000, we consider that BTC is starting to become interesting again. What will interest me now is whether the institutional level will also pick up. Unfortunately, that is not yet the case. We saw yesterday, outflows of $254 million. So, it's not a huge amount compared to what we saw on November 13th and 14th. We had outflows of $866 million, $492 million. But the reality is that we need to see momentum recreated, inflows showing up again and also validated by the whales who continue to buy. At that point, we will certainly see a bottom forming. I will give you my zone to reload later. In any case, the zone on which I will certainly act, and we will see that a little later. But what is important to understand is that there are still many people who are bullish because there is a pattern playing out. Yes, we have, for example, Bitmine L, for example, who believes we will still make a top by the end of the year. Now, I don't necessarily think we will make a top by the end of the year, but nevertheless, the rarity is that we are not far from a bottom. Can we go lower? Yes, obviously. And you will quickly see the levels to watch. In the meantime, Strategy B continues to buy. They had announced that they would buy BTC every day during this drop, and that's what they did. 8178 BTC, almost 1 billion dollars injected, and despite that, the price has not moved upwards. It continues to sink. And yes, because the Nasdaq is also retracing, continuing its retracement. We are in a retracement that looks like an ABC with a target around 24,000. We talked about this very important target. To hunt down all of this part, to retest the 24,000 here, which was the top left in August 2025, and so we would have a significant retracement on the Nasdaq. From the top to this zone, we would be almost at a 10% retracement, which corresponds to the end of the year and uncertainty and overall a somewhat complicated macroeconomic end of the year. So it is perfectly logical to have this. The problem is that we have underperformance of BTC, we see it clearly, we have broken the block of four on the BTC Nasdaq ratio. We explained that on the break of that, unfortunately, it means we would go for the next one, and the next one is at 330. So overall, further underperformance of BTC mainly due to margin calls, as I explained at the beginning, and liquidations that we find absolutely everywhere. And what is interesting to see is that we are really in this pattern that I showed you a few days ago where we have a liquidation happening mainly at the BTC level, and outperformance at the altcoin level. So on the left chart, Bitcoin, on the right chart, we have here the percentage, so the dominance of altcoins when we remove stablecoins. And we see that we have a bullish acceleration in the March-April 2025 period, which for me is a very similar pattern. We have this acceleration, so it's an outperformance, a resilience of altcoins, which is rather classic because we had a whole event of liquidation before, and then we have a maintenance here because BTC had not liquidated as much, and that is exactly what we are seeing here where we have very strong margin calls, and so we have a very strong liquidation movement. So overall, we are in this movement, and what we will wait for is the next step, a bullish reaction, then overall a bottom that will settle before being able to move again. And so this gives us some zones, important zones that we see. We have broken the $93,000 zone, which was a huge support that absolutely should not have been broken. I remind you that we said that if we broke $98,000, we would go back to around 86,000. That's exactly what we are going to see. We will certainly retest the $86,000 which will correspond to the RSI because one candle equals one week currently. We see that the RSI is falling to relatively low levels that we haven't seen in a while, but we clearly see that there is a momentum trend that is decreasing. The only alarm I have is that we have closed below the 50 again. This certainly means that when we touch the 100, we will have a reaction, and we will have to look at what we do in these zones, that is to say, in the potential retest of $100,000. And precisely, there will certainly be a lot of fear in this market during the re-acceleration phase. We will have to be very, very careful, especially regarding timing. Know that when we fall like this, we will not have a reaction like this afterwards. We will certainly have a consolidation phase that can take some time, which is rather classic. After a phase of fear, there needs to be a phase of breathing for the market so that emotions disappear and we return to a classic cycle. This is what was seen here, which could be seen in the same way here. What is also important to see is that we closed on the CME, if we look at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the institutional futures, we had a gap around $92,000. We filled it, we pierced it completely. So again, we will retest this zone around it, and it doesn't mean we will stop at 86,000. We can go for $80,000 before having a bullish reaction, a breath, and then restructuring a bit like we had here with a first batch, second batch, third batch. Something that lasted more than 70 days again before a restart. So something that would bring us to 2026 at that point. And so that means a breath that will take time. And yes, as long as the Nasdaq unfortunately pushes us down, which is exactly the pattern we saw during this period when the Nasdaq had lost much more than 10% because currently the Nasdaq is what? And boom, we are around 6% currently, and we would go to 10% at 24,000, but since we are in underperformance mainly due to liquidations and real liquidity. That is to say, when we look at the drop we experienced here, we clearly see that there has been an increase since we went below $100,000, we clearly see an increase in the top positions of top traders here in long positions with an increase in open interest. So we are seeing an increase in leverage, and when we look at the funding rate which is in long positions. So this means we are feeding the machine to continue to sink because longs mean liquidation closures, and we will systematically look for liquidation closures. And that's what we see here too. We see that we are gradually sinking into liquidation closures, and we can go for it here. We see clearly up to 86,000, 85,000. We have a small level around 80,000. It's relatively done, but the more we sink, the more it risks strengthening, and that will be something to watch. And on the other hand, we have many shorts opening, but they are still much less interesting than longs. And given that we have a momentum of fear and capitulation, it is perfectly normal that we continue to sink currently. So very important, I keep repeating it for several weeks now that you need to have good risk management and especially good money management in this difficult period, and especially when we see BTC breaking $90,000, a validated break, and then we sink directly. We see that there is no timing for a breather. We are looking for very, very little rebound. And when we look at the short term, what do we see? We see that we did have a rebound on November 13th. Here, we went for a small rebound in the short zone around 100,000 and then we had a drop, and even compared to this drop, we didn't have a strong rebound or retest before a bearish continuation. Now, we might have a potential rebound around $94,000 to watch with liquidity around $96,000 which could be interesting to go a little lower with the opening of the American market because here, you need to understand that when we are here in daily, one candle equals one day on this chart, and when we look at the Nasdaq, we clearly see that the opening of the American market here, even though it's not open, so we are on futures in pre-market, we are already attacking negatively. Historically, in previous years, we often saw that when we attacked in futures during the day, especially downwards, it was reversed, meaning the opening of the American market, it was systematically reversed. Well, given the bearish pressure we have, given the fear we have at the moment, it is very likely that this will not be the case yet, and that we could go even lower with a candle that could look like this one to go lower. What is interesting to see is that even with the same pattern, when we had this dramatic drop, when Donald Trump announced the tariffs, the duties that caused a lot of damage, we had a huge drop in the Nasdaq, and on the other hand, Bitcoin suffered a lot at the beginning and much less at the end. I remind you that we had -26% and on BTC, we had -32%. And here, we see that with -10%, we have already dropped much more than that on BTC because it is the end of the year, because the 4-year cycle is playing out, hence the underperformance of Bitcoin currently. What will interest me is really the reaction at $86,000-$80,000, the reaction on the 200-day moving average. Will we have a sufficient rebound to potentially retest the 50-day moving average, $100,000, retest the usual rebound zone that we could have, a large resistance zone that was support for a while here, here, which will become a resistance zone, and we will see what happens next. Know that we are still stuck in between. Are we in a 4-year cycle? And at that point, we will have a bear market, meaning we will break $75,000 to potentially then have a dead cat bounce before sinking again and going to perhaps 50, 40, etc., etc. Or are we in an institutional cycle? And at that point, we will maintain 74,000. We will buy back this zone here to make a new ATH, a bit like we saw. Boom, with a stair-step dynamic. We are forced to price both, and that is the complexity of the situation, and that is why good risk management is essential. If you don't have it, I remind you that in the Telegram that you have in the comments in the description, you have a complete training on risk management if you are interested. There is a whole guide that explains how to manage your exposure in this type of situation. So don't hesitate, it's in the comments in the description, it's free. And I hope you enjoyed this video. If so, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. And tell me in the comments ETH. And at that point, I will know that you watched the video until the end, and I will prepare the video for this evening. I'll see you later.