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Finding a way to end this [music] currently, there are two major issues stuck: the issue of Israel and the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. There are ships stuck there, many ships, and they are damaged because they have been stuck for a long time, about 100 days. Iran wants to collect fees, so they placed these mines in the central channel. If you want to leave safely, you must pass through the channel near Iran's coast. The US said, "Hey, oil tankers must pass," so they pushed the oil tankers through. When Iran fired, Trump ordered a bombing of Iran. Iran attacked Trump's military base. Trump is cunning. He is trying to make this happen within the period, [music] to open the stock market, the oil market. They said, "End." >> [music] [music] [music] >> DB Sothao, hello, Professor Teerachai. >> Hello, Khun Thani. >> Currently, the ship in Singapore was shot. The Americans retaliated, saying it was about controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Iran cannot do this. So America retaliated, and there is also the issue of Israel still invading Lebanon. They are fighting and killing each other. So I asked the professor, what is the latest situation regarding the negotiations that they said were scheduled to meet in Qatar, Doha, on Tuesday, tomorrow, and all this? It looks very confusing and chaotic. Professor, please clarify. Is the negotiation actually progressing, or is it just a play? Professor, please. >> It's a big play, you know, regarding the war with Iran. Finding a way to end it currently, there are two major issues stuck, and these are two issues that are difficult to find a satisfactory solution for America. These are the Strait of Hormuz and the issue of Israel. Let's talk about them one by one. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, honestly, we saw progress until the signing of the MOU. Looking at the situation and various information, I think Trump has accepted it. He has accepted that Iran will definitely not release them. Therefore, when we look at the MOU, it is written that Iran will allow ships to leave, and in the first 60 days, no charges will be incurred. Is that right? That means at least for 60 days. I read it that way. And Trump seemed to have accepted it. Then, after signing and Iran releasing the ships, oh, the oil price dropped a lot. When the oil price dropped a lot, the person who was most pleased was Trump. He could use this package to sell to American politicians, saying, "See, this is the right way." The American people are directly benefiting because the oil price has dropped, right? And looking at it this way, he tried to portray it as America winning. Then, at one point, it turns out that the Strait of Hormuz needs to be explained a bit. Originally, the channel where ships entered and exited was in the middle of the strait. And it was a channel where ships entered and exited. They used to queue up themselves, not asking permission from anyone, and not paying anyone. And there were two channels, one for exiting and one for entering, used for two-way traffic only. Iran wanted to collect fees, so they placed mines in the central channel. After placing them, they basically said that if you want to leave safely, you must pass through the channel near Iran's northern coast. This means entering Iran's 12 nautical mile territorial waters. Then they have the right to claim that they are providing services and can collect fees. They have legal rights. After the MOU was negotiated, the IMO, which is an organization related to maritime affairs of the United Nations, came to talk to Oman. They said, "Look, [laughter] there are ships stuck there, many ships, and they are damaged because they have been stuck for about 100 days. Food is scarce because they cannot get enough food from the shore. Water is also scarce. The crew on board, a total of 11,000 people, have been away from home for a long time. And every night, they have to see if there is fighting, rockets flying back and forth, planes flying back and forth, and they feel like they might die today or tomorrow. So they negotiated with Oman, saying that at this time, there is a channel below the area where Iran placed mines, right next to Oman. Open this channel so these ships can leave, as a humanitarian gesture. Oman agreed. Then Oman issued an explanation for the ships, saying that when you enter, you must do this and that. The entry process, the position must be between this position and this position. After that, you must turn, and from this position to this position, and so on. And they wrote in it that this is a temporary opening. It turns out that Trump probably saw that he could provoke Iran. So he took ships and told ships from other countries, "Hey, you come and run through Oman's channel." Iran was happy because the IMO's agreement with the United Nations to allow ships to leave was not a normal trade, which Iran wanted to control. It became possible to go through this way. And on that day, when the problem occurred with the Singaporean ship, there were three ships. One was a normal cargo ship from Singapore, which passed through. The other two were oil tankers, large tankers. Iran showed its power. The Singaporean ship that passed through was hit by a drone. The damage was not severe, but the ship did not sink. However, it was damaged. Regarding the two oil tankers, Iran broadcast a message saying, "Do not use the lower channel. If you want to leave, you must ask permission to pass through the upper channel." The two ships, one from Saudi Arabia and the other from the UAE, turned back. Trump probably wouldn't accept that. He told them to come back. This time, push the two oil tankers through, and tell them not to worry. When the ships were passing, they made a lot of noise. They sent planes, various types, including AAC planes, to observe the situation. Small planes, large planes, all ready. And if a drone was sent, they would see it first and destroy it. In other words, they would claim they could protect the ships, right? It turns out that when Iran fired at the Singaporean ship that day, Trump ordered a bombing of some points in Iran. Iran attacked a US military base in these countries. Then, on the second day, when the US said, "Hey, oil tankers must pass," they pushed the oil tankers through. It turns out that when they passed, Iran fired at one ship. America, Trump, ordered a bombing of Iran again. Iran bombed back again. There are reports that they bombed back. So America, America, is not deterred. Originally, they had military bases in the Middle East, in Arab countries. Then they were attacked and destroyed. So they used a method, I guess, that they used the airports of these countries, the airports of Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the planes they sent up, which were of several types, took off from different bases. There were people monitoring the radar and saying, "This one is from this base, this one is from that base." Iran attacked these Arab countries. The Arab countries said, "Hey, we are not involved." Iran said, "Don't pretend, because you allowed America to use your military bases to attack Iran." After retaliating back and forth, Trump is cunning. The Strait of Hormuz is within the weekend. Finally, when the weekend is over and the stock market and oil market open, they said, "End." There must be a settlement between the two sides. At least it's pending. So I guess it must end in a way that ultimately Trump has to give in, returning to the way it was, that he can't do anything. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and there's no way to release it. And at the same time, if Trump finds a way to push the convoy through again, Iran will attack. And in reality, in terms of actual practical results, for merchant ships, oil tankers, or any ships, they can pass through Oman without paying and leave without waiting in line. But if they are hit by a drone from Iran, and the ship is damaged and needs to be repaired for just one month, the ship owner will feel it's not worth it. Meanwhile, insurance companies are not yet fully confident. All of this is because America is the instigator and is trying to create a convoy. I think at this point, it has calmed down. Now that it has calmed down, today America announced that there will be technical negotiations tomorrow in Qatar. But news has just come out that Iran has denied it, saying there are no negotiations at this time. So, in conclusion, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is still tense, and it is still a tool for Iran to exert pressure in various ways. Currently, Trump, no matter what form he takes, cannot break through. >> That is one problem. This is another problem that Trump is boasting about and cannot solve, which is the issue of Israel and Lebanon. Israel entered Lebanon for the first time over 40 years ago, saying they would not leave and established a base, occupying the area. And they have been trying to drive out the people in the area continuously. In recent times, their territory has been expanding. And in this area, once they gain control, they try to make it an area that they deem safe, free from Hezbollah. But we see that Iran's strategy and Hezbollah itself have spoken out, saying that negotiations and ending the war must end all wars. Therefore, in Lebanon, it means America must pressure Israel. And I think Hezbollah's leaders have spoken out, saying that Israel must be forced to, not just cease-fire, but withdraw completely from the area in Lebanon. Because entering there is illegal. This is what Israel is most unhappy and worried about. Partly, they see that if they withdraw from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah will come closer to the border. And then, rockets or drones from Lebanon into northern Israel will be able to reach further. This is why Israelis are calling for this to be maintained. We see that before the deal, you may remember that at one point, Israel's attacks in Lebanon were, in my view, divided into two levels. One level was attacking the southern area, which is done regularly. The other was suddenly sending planes to bomb Beirut, the capital, and bomb Iran's Beirut. Before the MOU was signed, Israel bombed Beirut. Actually, before bombing, they announced that people in Beirut, in the southern part, should evacuate because it is not safe. This means they said, "We will bomb with planes." Meanwhile, Iran also announced that people in northern Israel should evacuate because it is not safe if Israel attacks, they will be hit. Israel sent planes and bombed Beirut. Iran sent rockets. When they sent them to Israel, Israel sent planes and fired rockets, bombarding Iran. Iran then sent rockets, not just to the north, but to major cities. Until finally, Trump had to intervene. When he intervened, it progressed to the point of signing the MOU. If we observe Israel's activities in Lebanon after the MOU, in the past week, they have continued, but only in the south. They are still fighting. And not just by sending soldiers, tanks, or firing artillery. They have also used planes to bomb only the south. But this time, Iran remained silent. Iran remained silent. So, at least this time, it has become a situation where Iran has to see what Iran will do. In addition, yesterday, America brokered a deal between Israel and Lebanon to sign an agreement. They signed an agreement saying that the southern area, which Israel occupies, has a goal to return it to Israel. Israel intends to return it, but only when Lebanon develops its own army and can take over the defense of the country. It is unknown when this will happen. Then Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that if this is the case, they will withdraw when they see that Lebanon truly has military strength. But Lebanon has no money now. They said it would be alright. The US will host and ask for money from Arab countries to finance the establishment of the army for Lebanon. In conclusion, Israel and Lebanon are still in a situation that has only been resolved to a certain extent. And I see that there is a possibility that it could escalate into conflict at any time. Therefore, both issues, the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon, are fuses that have a chance to ignite and become a major problem. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the DB Sothao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.