Transcription
Good morning, friends and enemies.
In today's video, we will be ranking every running back for week eight of fantasy football as a sit, a start, or a flex. We do it every Wednesday. We do the same thing every Thursday for the wide receiver position. So, make sure you are subscribed to the channel if you want to see that tomorrow. And if you want all of our rankings, the only place to get them is at bdgeg.co. Become a big dog member. No place else on the internet will you be able to find my rankings.
Let's jump into the first matchup. Thursday Night Football. Obviously, we've got a huge bye-week. Arizona, Detroit, Jacksonville, Rams, Las Vegas, and Seattle. Any players on those teams?
First matchup, we got Minnesota at the Los Angeles Chargers. This is Thursday Night Football. The Chargers are three-point favorites at home. 44 and a half point total in this one. We'll check out the practice reports for this. We know Carson Wentz will be starting at quarterback. The big news here for the Chargers is that Joe Alt got back to limited practices on both Monday and Tuesday and the plan is, I believe, for him to suit up on Thursday, which would be huge for this offensive line, of course. So, Joe Alt back, major upgrade.
This is the running back episode, and we do have some injuries to the running backs that need to be talked about. We got Aaron Jones, whose practice window opened and he returned to a limited practice on Tuesday. That does not mean that he will be playing Thursday night, but it does give him an opportunity to play Thursday night. So, we will rank him in both capacities. I'll let you know what I think if he does play, if he does not play. Uh, the other thing to note is that Hassan Haskins was a DNP on both Monday and Tuesday. He is doubtful for this game. Which means Kamani Vidal, as disappointing of a game as he had in week seven versus the Colts front seven. If you just combine all the touches in that backfield to one running back, a guy that can run the ball, a guy that can catch passes, a guy that will, you know, just inevitably be the goal line back, I feel good about Kamani Vidal despite the, uh, the down game. He's getting all the touches, he's getting all the snaps, no Hassan Haskins. I mean, this is just going to be completely his backfield back there. Now, on the flip side, the Chargers are not a good run defense. They, they're a good pass defense. They have good corners. They got a good secondary, decent pass rush now with Khalil Mack back, but their run defense is really, really bad, as you can see.
So, with Aaron Jones, the way I'm looking at this is, like, his first game back from a long absence from a hamstring injury is like, it doesn't get me excited for Aaron Jones if I have him, but it does get me a little bit less bullish on a guy like, uh, Jordan Mason. If Aaron Jones does not play, then Jordan Mason, I feel good about. He's going to get his 15 plus touches. He'll be the goal line back. This is a weak run defense. I think they'll continue to use him in a high capacity here. If Aaron Jones is back, I would throw him into the shaky flex category. I would prefer a lot of other options at the running back position and at the flex position, even with six teams on bye. Maybe that moves Jordan Mason down to the dub flex category. At this point, I think Xavier Scott has taken enough of a pass-catching role that we can almost liken what Aaron Jones's role is going to be in his probably his first game back as he's getting back up to speed. So, Jordan Mason, he's kind of like teetering between Feels Good and Dub Flex because he's just not catching a ton of passes. He's not having a ton of explosive runs. But we've seen Jordan Mason be really good in really good matchups. And I do think this is a really good matchup against the soft Chargers run defense.
So, we'll move to the next game, the 1 p.m. slates on Sunday. Thank God, no more international games for the time being. You know what? I'm actually thinking, I'm thinking about side quest here, we're about to go on. I'm thinking about going to the Falcons Colts game in Germany. So, if we've got any German fans out there, let me know because I will need help if I end up making that trip out there. I don't know where to stay. I don't know what to do. I definitely don't know how to speak German. So, like, I'm going to need a tour guide. I'm going to need someone to to let me know where I should be going out. Maybe we'll get like a little fan meet up if we have enough people out there in Germany. It's week 10, I believe. Atlanta and Indy. I need to find my passport. I can't find it anywhere. But that's whatever. Side note.
So, as we hit the Sunday games, we don't have any practice reports because Wednesday around noon to 2:00 p.m. is when the first practice reports come out for these. And Wednesday practice reports are kind of fake for the most part. So, we don't have any like practice updates for any of the games going forward. From a weather note, as a weather boy, don't believe there are any games with actual concerns for the weather so far this week, which is good news compared to last week. There's a lot of rain, a lot of downpours, so nothing that should be overly effective here.
So, we got James Cook. They're coming off the bye, and I know James Cook's had a couple down games. And the Carolina Panthers run defense, especially with Derrick Brown playing at full strength, has performed really, really well. I'll say they've had a pretty soft schedule. So, I'm not buying into the fact that they're an elite run defense by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't think they're a pushover as they have been in recent years. That being said, it's James Cook and he's the Bills starting running back, and I'm not not starting him. His rushing yard line by itself is at 70 and a half right now with a minus 155 line to score a touchdown. The other side of this matchup, I didn't even go over the spread or anything. This is a seven-point game. Seven-point favorites for the Bills. 46 and a half point total in this one.
So we have Andy Dalton starting at quarterback, which I don't really know what it means for the running back position. I, I honestly don't think it's much of a difference maker for anyone besides probably like a T. McMillan, and again, I'll go over the wide receivers tomorrow in the wide receiver rankings video. I think it's a slight upgrade to a guy like him because we've seen Dalton pepper his wide receiver ones before. The running back position is much more tricky to figure out or project. I mean, I guess it's not really even that difficult to project because they're just going series by series. Like, it was Chuba Hubbard started, got the entire first series, then Rico, then Chuba, then Rico, then Chuba. So, realistically, what you're doing in these matchups where Rico's been a lot more effective, he's running more efficiently, his yards per carry is a lot higher. They're both relatively involved in the passing game, they're both going to see 10 plus carries. It's really coming down to who happens to be the lucky running back on the series in which they get, you know, inside the three or the five-yard line. So, I can't really give you any insight as to who is going to be that guy. I will say the Bills run defense is pretty ass, as you could see by all the green dots around these guys.
So, with Rico, I'm looking at him as a dub flex. I think he's running a lot better. I think he's a better suited player for this backfield right now. And I do think there will eventually come a week where they ride the hot hand for like the second half of it. And I think it's more likely to be a Rico Dowel week than it is a Chuba Hubbard week. But as you could see by the Vegas lines, 53 and a half to 47 and a half, or last week coming in, it was 63 and a half for Rico and maybe like 36, 37 and a half for Chuba Hubbard. So they were expecting a much different type of split, and Ro did end up having more touches, but again, it just came on the fact that the drives he was in on had a few more plays than the ones Chuba didn't. And, you know, if the run blocking tends to be a little bit more positive in terms of just luck for Chuba, then we could see a difference of that split there. For now, what I'm going to do is the same thing I did last week. I'm going to have Rico as a dub flex, and I'm going to have Chuba as a shaky flex. So, I don't hate Chuba. Like, I think he is flex worthy, but I'm definitely not like excited to get him into my lineup. Whereas, like Rico, I feel good about his floor. I feel good about, like, the runner he is right now, and I feel especially good about the matchup against Buffalo. And the other thing to note is when you look at the anytime touchdown line, Rico's is at plus 145. Chuba is down at plus 200. So maybe Vegas does think that if they get inside the five, inside the three, inside the two, they're more likely to use a guy like Rico down there as like the short yardage, heavy duty back, which I think does make sense, cuz he's shown a lot of power on those short runs.
Moving over to Chicago at Baltimore. Chicago is six and a half point underdogs here. 49 and a half point total. They don't have lines up for any of the backs. That is very likely due to the fact that they are not certain Lamar Jackson is playing. Coming off of the bye, they said the plan was for him to return after this bye. However, you know, and I don't want to read into Monday and Tuesday practice reports, cuz those are not real things. But the Ravens coming off the bye did have some light practice on Monday, Tuesday, which Lamar Jackson was not there for. But I will be much more interested to see what happens on, obviously, Wednesday, Thursday as it relates to Lamar Jackson. So, I mean, assuming Lamar is back, Derrick Henry is going to go into the must-start category. Of course, we've got to figure out DeAndre Swift, Kyle Manungai. Swift is the guy back there, but Manungai is getting, uh, enough touches. On paper, this is a really good matchup against the Ravens because the Ravens run defense has been awful up to this point in the year, but they will get some key pieces back. You know, the Roquan Smiths will be at full strength coming back after the bye. That being said, though, the interior of the defensive line has already lost guys for the entirety of the season that will make sure that they're just not an above-average team against the run. Unfortunately, they will get a lot of their quarterbacks back, their secondary back post-bye. So, they should be at full strength for the most part. And I think we saw Baltimore early on in the year like be what they could be. It was not a great defense, but they're still a very, very well-rounded team that could beat the out of any team on any given Sunday. But Swift and the running back group and, and just this running game in general, you know, they're in a good matchup. He's in for a lot of touches and he's definitely a dub flex for me at the top of this tier, and I think you could probably argue him into the feels good category. I don't know when they get inside the five again. I think Kyle Manungai has a chance of becoming like the actual goal line back there. But I like both guys. Manungai is going to go into the shaky flex category cuz him with standalone value. I know he's coming off of a big touch game, but that was because they just dominated the game script, which I don't expect that to be the case against the Baltimore Ravens, and, uh, they got a ton of running back touches in this one, right? And I just don't think that's going to be the norm. If that comes down from 38 running back touches to, you know, 28 or whatnot, that means Manungai is probably closer to that 8 to 11 touch count. And that's not someone that you're like dying to get into your lineup.
Next game, we got Cleveland at New England. New England seven-point favorites in this one. 40 and a half point total. I mean, Judkins, I know the matchup is brutal. New England's run defense has been awesome this year. I just, you know, you're obviously just starting Judkins. No second thought about it. Raandre Stevenson coming off of a really strong day. He continues to just monopolize all of the touches and, and the snaps in that backfield for the most part. Trayvon Henderson is a complete afterthought at this point. You got that versus the Cleveland Browns as a defense. They are the single toughest matchup against fantasy running backs. 32nd in fantasy points allowed to the running back position, 32nd in EPA per rush allowed to, uh, opponents here. So, Trayvon Henderson is going to be unfortunately a rather not for me. He doesn't even get into the shaky flex category. Raandre, he's a little bit of a tougher sell for me. Like when I look at DeAndre Swift, I'm not looking at Raandre Stevenson in the same tier this week given the fact that the Browns run defense is so good. So, Raandre, he's going to get a nice touch. I think he's going to get a lot of snaps, but he's a shaky flex for me. At the top of the tier for sure, just because he's been so good up to this point. He'll get the goal line carries. And maybe New England's at at a point now with their offense that it's running so smoothly that we feel good enough about them moving the ball that Cleveland doesn't completely scare us off of it. But we've seen really bad games from Mandre this week. So, just because he had a good game last week against a shitty, shitty Tennessee defense does not mean those like seven for 20 games on the ground are completely in his rearview.
Next game we got Miami and Atlanta. I mean, this one's easy. You got Bijan in the must-start. You got Devon Achane in the must-start. And then Tyler Allgeier. Yeah, I mean, this is one of those matchups where I get it. Like, it's Miami and they're a terrible run defense and the game script should favor them. They're seven-point favorites, 44 and a half point total. Anytime Allgeier's line gets up to like 40, 45 plus, that's usually when we're going to take an under on that. He's going to go into the shaky flex category. Like, I, I get the appeal. I think him and Manungai probably have similar outlooks for this week.
Moving to the Giants at Philadelphia. Philadelphia seven-point favorites in this one. 43 and a half point total. The run game's obviously just not clicking right now. That being said, it's Saquon Barkley. The Giants run defense is, is not good. Uh, his line for this game, 79 and a half rushing yards, 15 and a half receiving yards in this one. They are expecting a big game out of Saquon. I, I don't really know what to make of the Philly run offense. I, I've been watching a bunch of film breakdowns of what's going wrong there. And what it seems is the new offensive coordinator is just lacking any sort of like creative juice and not letting Saquon get a bunch of momentum. Obviously, there's some injuries to the offensive line, but I think they are getting healthier. And I, I do think we will see a stronger Saquon Barkley down the stretch here. Uh, we got Cam Scatab going against Philadelphia. Now, Philadelphia, without a doubt, losing guys like Milton Williams in the offseason were big hits to their run defense. But I think a lot of this green that we're seeing across the board is the fact that they've had two games now without Jaylen Carter in which the opponents have really taken advantage of their ground game, and that was against the Giants last time, and it was against Dallas in week one. Jaylen Carter is going to play in this one. So, I do think ultimately it's not as easy as a matchup as it's showing on paper, but Cam Scatab is just a workhorse right now, and I feel really damn good about that, man. Tyrone Tracy had one like fake breakaway touchdown last week. He's going to be a shaky flex for me at best.
The Jets at Cincinnati right now. It is a six and a half point total that the Jets are getting as underdogs. 44 and a half point total. They don't have lines for any of the players. I'm assuming that's because they have not made a decision on who the quarterback is. Plus the fact that we have not gotten practice reports because Breece Hall again did twist his ankle on Sunday. Doesn't seem to be serious because he did get back into the game. But again, sometimes those things swell up after the fact. So if Breece Hall is playing, I mean, he just hasn't really taken advantage of good matchups. But regardless, I mean, I, I think against the Cincinnati Bengals, just Swiss cheese defense, he's going to be a must-start for me. Chase Brown against the Jets defense is a good matchup. We are seeing him coming off of his best game with Joe Flacco, and the offense is starting to click a little bit. So, I actually feel okay about Chase Brown. I'm going to throw him into the dub flex category. If Breece Hall were to randomly miss this game because of the ankle injury, Israel Abanikanda becomes really, really interesting. And I would throw him somewhere between the feels good and dub flex category. I, I actually think I, I feel good just because the matchup is so good. It's like, okay, if Breece Hall is out, Breece Hall by himself has not been some fantasy, you know, superstar. So, it's like, how's the next guy up going to be that much better than a Breece Hall? But I do think again, once you condense all the touches to one guy, that's a lot of pass-catching work. Like Abanikanda and Breece Hall on a weekly basis for the last few weeks since Brilland Allen's been out have combined for like six, seven, eight catches per game, which I think would almost all go to Israel Abanikanda. He'll get, you know, 10 to 12 carries. He'll get the goal line work there. He's got the requisite size. So, if Breece were to miss, Israel Abanikanda would be in the feels good category. If he doesn't, then he's like a shaky flex at best. Probably rather not.
San Francisco at Houston. I love getting to these games, you know, cuz this, this is easy. Just throw Christian McCaffrey into the must-start category. You got Dameon Pierce who like took back over the backfield last week. And we're just going to keep doing this back and forth between Pierce and Dameon Pierce and everyone's just going to be extremely reactive to what happened to the previous week. Dameon Pierce the better pass catcher. Nick Chubb is probably going to get the goal line work when they get down there. The Houston offensive line is not getting any better. The Houston offense doesn't look like it's getting any better. There's a chance they're without Nico Collins because of the concussion. There's a chance they're without Christian Kirk again because of the hamstring. So, I don't have a lot of, uh, faith in this offense. So, I'm going to put both Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb in a decently tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who have lost a lot of pieces on defense at this point. So, they're not anywhere near full strength, but I don't feel great about starting either of those guys.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans. So, Alvin Kamara kind of gets the backfield to himself. I'm expecting because Kendre Miller's out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. It's like, do they get Deon Neal a little bit more involved? Probably as the weeks go by, but I'm not expecting like a 10 to 12 carry count for him like Kendre Miller's kind of been getting. So, I think I'm going to throw Alvin Kamara right into the feels good category cuz again, all the touches I think are pretty much going to be condensed. I think he's going to shoot back up from that 55% snap guy he's been with Kendre Miller there up to like 70, 75, 80%, which is just super valuable in fantasy. This is a 46 and a half point total. The Saints are only four and a half point underdogs in this one at home, which is a little bit surprising. On the flip side, we don't have Bucky Irving's status yet for this week. If I had to guess, I don't think he plays in this one. I think they probably hold him out till after their week nine bye and then he comes back at full strength in week 10. And if that's the case, Rachaad White, despite, you know, having the down game last week, it was a very tough matchup. He's going to go right back into the must-start category for me in a good matchup against the New Orleans Saints.
Dallas at Denver. We've got Javonte who's getting a ridiculous amount of work, but he is playing against the Denver Broncos, which is an extremely tough matchup. Of course, uh, we did just see Cam Scatab have some success, and they're semi-similar styles of player. Javonte, I mean, he's going to get all the goal line work. He's going to get all the touches. I don't really see you having a team where you can sit him, but I do think based on the matchup, like you do have to consider him more in the feels good category. Very much at the top of it because of course he's just dominating all the work and it's a very, very high-powered offense right now. That's going to be a very interesting game. The game total is at 50 and a half. The Cowboys are three and a half point underdogs in this one. The Dallas defense is really, obviously, really poor. So they're expecting Denver to chip in and do their part, and they're obviously expecting Dallas to do enough. So a three and a half point spread with a 50 and a half point total. They are projecting this to be what, 26 and a half to 23 and a half or something like that? Yeah, that gets around to 50. 27 to 23 and a half. So that means Dallas would be a 23 and a half point projected team total. 27 for Denver. So really like J.K. Dobbins to get into the end zone here. He's going to be at the feels good category as well. Very much at the top of it. I mean, you see the green across the board there. Third most fantasy points allowed to the running back position for Dallas. Third in EPA per rush. Third in total points per game allowed. Dobbins's line is all the way up at 70 and a half. R.J. Harvey and Tyler Batty and all these guys are just not making a dent in J.K. Dobbins's workload by any stretch. And R.J. Harvey just randomly has like a few touchdown catches or whatever. But I mean, you can't actually have confidence in starting him right now. You know, he, he could catch something. He could break an explosive play, but there's a good, there's just as good of a chance of that happening as him having like three carries in a game. So, you cannot trust him whatsoever.
Tennessee at Indianapolis. Uh, Jonathan Taylor making my life easy. Right into the must-start category. Tony Pollard and Taj Spears, I mean, they're playing against Indy who have a good front seven. We saw them kind of just bottle up. Kamani Vidal. Pollard and Taj Spears are just like both useless at this point. Tony Pollard got six carries last week. Taj Spears got five. Tony Pollard did catch a bunch of dump-offs kind of at the end of the game to salvage his PPR day. But right now, I mean, they're both shaky flexes that I don't feel good about having in my lineup. I, I, I like Pollard a little bit more just cuz if there's a guy who's likely to have like a 15 touch game and get the goal line score, it's probably him. But again, if they're within like the, the four, eight-yard line, I wouldn't be surprised if they put Taj Spears in for like some sort of like flexible passing play either. So, I, I, I don't think either of them are must, uh, must-starts.
Sunday Night Football, we got Green Bay at Pittsburgh. Jacobs, another one making my life easy. He goes into the must-start category. Jaylen Warren, this is a tough matchup. So, they're playing against the Packers, obviously, and as you could see, they are, uh, bottom three in terms of fantasy points allowed to the running back position. They are bottom five in EPA per rush allowed. Now, their, their defense has faltered a little bit over the previous weeks, and they don't look untouchable like they did early on in the season, but they're still a very good defense. A very tough team to have success against. That being said, Warren has completely taken that backfield over again. He just every time he gets hurt, people are like, "Oh, it's no longer his backfield." And then they have one game where they're like, "Oh, yeah. I forgot Warren's way better than Kenneth Gainwell," and it happens again. So, with Warren, do I feel good? I, I don't know that I'd say I feel really good about him given the matchup right now. This is like the stretch of the season where the Steelers up to this point have been winning games, but they've been playing against awful teams. This is when their schedule starts to get really, really tough, and we'll see what they actually are as an offense. We'll see what Aaron Rodgers actually has left in the tank outside of just having like open pockets all the time. I think there's a chance that the, the Steelers offense starts to struggle a bit now that their schedule gets really, really tough. They got Green Bay, they got Indianapolis, they're at LA over the next three games. So, you know, again, we'll, we'll see what type of team they are. I'm going to put Jaylen Warren into the dub flex. Like, he definitely deserves to be in your lineup for sure, but I don't think he's like a must-start by any means based on the matchup. And then Kenneth Gainwell will go into the rather not category.
Last game of the slate, we got Washington at Kansas City. Kansas City 10 and a half point favorites, 47 and a half point total in this game. Kansas City is clicking on all cylinders, and Washington's mouse is completely broken. They cannot click a single thing on the screen. This is a little bit of a tough game to decipher from the backfield. Bashard Smith got a lot of run last week because of the game script. They beat the, the Raiders 31 nothing. So, they just put in their backups the, like, the entire fourth quarter, halfway through the third quarter. That being said, I don't know that the game script's going to be that much different against Washington because Jaden Daniels is going to be out for this one. So, Mark Mariota starting. We don't know the status of Terry McLaurin, who is like expected to return to practice this week. We don't know the status of Deebo Samuel. So, we could see something similar where Bashard Smith gets another 10 to 12 touches in this one because of the garbage time in the fourth quarter. I'm going to throw him into the shaky flex category cuz he does still catch, you know, three, four passes a game, but I still think there are obviously a lot of guys who could start ahead of him.
Isiah Pacheco looks to have taken over the backfield. Again, I don't know if that had to do with Kareem Hunt's ankle injury. So, Kareem Hunt twisted his ankle on Sunday. He did return for a little bit, but he didn't really get any run. He didn't play much in the second half. He didn't really get any touches. So, I, I think there's a chance that that swells up and he might miss this time. If he misses the game, then I think Pacheco goes into the dub flex category. For like the first time this year, we feel like kind of good about putting Pacheco in our lineup. On the flip side of things, the only one worth talking about, of course, is Jakori Kroski Morett, who has been wildly disappointing since it seemed like he was going to take over the backfield and has really let us down in back-to-back weeks unfortunately. And now it's hard to make up like what's going to happen here. Because without Jaden Daniels under center, without their like weapons at full strength, I'd imagine that the Chiefs are going to look at the Washington offense and say like, "All right, we just got to take out the run game. There's no one that could actually beat us through the air here." So, Jakori, the last two weeks, has he's gotten the majority of snaps. He's gotten the majority of touches, and he had the matchups Chicago and Dallas, and just couldn't capitalize on them because he hasn't been catching passes, unfortunately. He, he wasn't a pass catcher in college, and I don't think they're going to force him into that role, especially with, uh, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez here, and because they don't have Jaden Daniels kind of like working at full strength, they haven't had the scoring opportunities either. So, Jakori, when I look across the board at the feels good category, or sorry, even down at the dub flex category, like if I have DeAndre Swift, no way I'm starting JCM over him. I'm not starting JCM over Jaylen Warren or Chase Brown or Pacheco if Kareem Hunt misses. So, I'm way more looking at Jakori Kroski Morett in the same vein that I'm looking at Raandre Stevenson, where I'm expecting him to lead the team in snaps, but the matchup isn't good, the offense isn't good, and, um, I'm worried about what the overall yardage output's going to be if he does not get touchdown opportunities there. So, this is probably unfortunately where I'd land JCM in the shaky flex category.
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All right, let me put it in poster mode for you, little hoes. And this is, uh, how we got them. All right, read them and weep. And again, if you want to watch the wide receiver version of this coming live to your face holes tomorrow, subscribe to the channel cuz that's every single Thursday. All right, I love y'all. Good luck in week eight. Smoochies.