Transcription
19 billion dollars, that is the sum that was liquidated in the space of 24 hours on cryptos. For comparison, that is more than 10 times more than during the Covid crash and also during the FTX crash. What happened yesterday on cryptos is clearly historic. We will talk about it and we will try to anticipate the next movements that could take place on the crypto markets and the stock markets. The first part of the video will focus almost exclusively on cryptos and the second part will focus on stocks. So if you want to skip the first part, you have the time code below. And in any case, I wish you a good viewing. Crypto markets in the space of 24 hours liquidated 19 billion dollars. That is more than 10 times more than during the Covid crash and more than 10 times more than during the FTX crash. There is a good reason for this. It's not solely due to Donald Trump's news, you know. So for those who haven't followed too closely, Donald Trump threatened China with implementing new tariffs of over 100%. This caused the markets to crash, and obviously cryptos reacted instantly. The problem that occurred is that brokers no longer had enough buy orders to maintain the order book. As you know, the order book functions via supply and demand, and you always need a buyer for a seller and a seller for a buyer. And that's how the price is regulated. It's a bit more complex than that. We could make a video about it if you wish to understand how the order book works. What you need to understand is that when there are no longer enough buyers to hold the price, simply all the sell orders will be executed. And if there are many more sell orders being executed compared to buy orders, then the order book shifts. In this case, that's exactly what happened because there were a huge number of buy orders from trades that were closed. These are orders that go to buy, which we call longs in trading, that were closed and liquidated, which then issues a sell order on the market. Once these sell orders are executed, they need to find buy orders to be executed. You have no choice. To execute a sell order, someone on the other side must buy your sell order. If there's no one left to buy your sell order, the price shifts, and you will sell for less than you wanted. And that's how the price is created. In this case, that's exactly what happened, particularly on cryptos like Atom, okay, where you see that the price literally dropped by 99.98%. So in this case, this is the kind of thing that cannot really happen just with a news event like we had, okay, which isn't necessarily targeted at Atom, but simply that the order book, particularly on Binance, not all brokers, but on Binance, the order book shifted enormously. There were a lot of sales, a lot of liquidations below all these support levels here, and so the order book shifted completely without anyone being able to do anything because no one wanted to buy Atom until at this moment the order book returned to normal, but the price went down to 1/10th of a cent, which represents $0.001, which is historic. It's very, very rare for this to happen. Personally, I've never seen it. Okay. Yet, I saw the FTX crash. Okay. But this has nothing to do with it. Clearly, I find it almost worse. In any case, what you need to understand is that here, we are talking about a bottom. Here, we are also talking about a bottom. So here, we have 10 times more liquidation. Personally, I think we are approaching a bottom, if not already there. I think there is a higher probability of going for upside, meaning price going up, rather than price going down, given the quantity of sell orders that were issued. As you know, the bottom is mainly characterized by a huge amount of sell orders being issued. Okay, so many sell orders, a lot of participants selling the market so that on the other side, the biggest player, the Smart Money, comes to pick up these sell orders to position itself in the market. Conversely, a market top is the complete opposite, where many participants are encouraged to buy the market so that on the other side, the Smart Money can sell and take its profits. Okay? So in this case, we have more than 10 times more than two bottoms, as you can see. So these two bottoms are two points in time where we had bottoms due to large liquidations, somewhat similar. Okay, so now, what will we anticipate? So you see clearly, we have come to recover this support. I believe we already talked about this support, these equal lows right here that took place. We have come to recover this last drop before the rise. Okay, I'm going to try to clean this up a bit because it's no longer very interesting, but overall, we have indeed recovered this liquidity level, and for me, we will stay in this zone for a few days. Okay? For me, a lot will happen in this zone, and what I will really be waiting for, what I will really anticipate, is a response from China regarding tariffs. Why? Because what I would really like is for us to have, well, what is happening now is rather interesting, but I would like us to continue to range, to create liquidity, a lot of liquidity everywhere, to come and seek it at times, etc., and what I want is for us to ultimately recover a support, a liquidity level. This could also be a trendline. Overall, what I want to see is a liquidity level being recovered with a reversal taking place, the break of the structure shifting from bearish to bullish in the short-term timeframe. Okay, simply to anticipate higher highs and then go for higher prices. Personally, I think the bottom is in. As I told you, it's about probabilities. It's not impossible that we go below, of course, and for now, I think it's in, and I will really wait to see what happens in the coming days before intervening. Personally, the crash did not affect me at all. I am a little disappointed, of course, not to have been able to speculate on it, but personally, it did not affect me at all. You may have seen on the Telegram channel that I sold a large part of my cryptos just before, so it was partly luck because I never would have thought that we would have such a big drop of nearly 20% on Bitcoin. Of course, I expected a bearish movement. So, I managed to save the furniture, so to speak. So to recap, what I will be waiting for is the sideways movement that could take place, the potential news from China. I'm getting ahead of myself because it's possible we won't have any news at all, but personally, I think we will, because the United States is not ultra powerful against China. Okay. And so I think there will be a response. I even think Trump is waiting for this response because, in addition to that, he manipulates the market with the aim of enriching his family. Which is understandable to some extent, he can do it, so why not. But I would like a setup like this where, as you see, we had a large liquidation movement, a large sideways consolidation. The price is quite slow. We come to recover liquidity here, we come to recover liquidity here. Tick tock tick tock. Okay. Overall, we create liquidity. Not much is happening. We are rather slow. And what I want to see is the creation of a support here, as we had with the liquidation. Boom, we go back up, we break the structure here, and then we go back up to seek higher highs. I'm not saying it will take that long. A month is quite long, you know, it will take about a month, you see. But I think it can easily last a week. I wouldn't be surprised. Let's look at what happened during the Covid crash, which is quite interesting because it's a similar case. Why? Because we are dealing with exceptional news. Let's say it's not very frequent to have this. And in addition, this movement was accentuated by bugs, by problems that occurred in the order book. Okay. So here, we see the big crypto crash. It lasted several days, you know, compared to us. Ours was almost instantaneous, but the Covid crash is much more significant than what we saw today. So the Covid crash here, as you see, we had the creation of a triangle, so liquidity. We first go up to then go down. Tick. Then, we break the structure here by breaking this high. Well, but then, we simply establish the bottom. So, this is really what I want to see, meaning that we won't necessarily go for this market low. However, we create liquidity here to create a kind of accumulation without recovering the bulk of this accumulation. Okay? So this is really what I will anticipate, and I will try to keep you informed, I will try to make a YouTube video. So don't hesitate to subscribe to this channel to be kept informed of what will happen in the coming days, in the coming weeks on cryptos. You probably know, if you've been following me for several months, there's one stock I really appreciate for analyzing cryptos and Bitcoin, and that's Coinbase. It's a stock that is very, very correlated with what we see on cryptos, because it depends heavily on the influx of cryptos and precisely on the interest investors have in cryptos. So, that's why there is a real correlation. Obviously, it's not a 100% correlation, but it can help us bring confluence to the next crypto movements. So here we clearly see a distribution that has taken place, which is very clear. If you follow the videos for a while, I often teach you about distributions and accumulations. So here we could see the buying climax, the automatic rally, several just here, and the upthrust that allows to liquidate this resistance. So we really had a clear transfer from strong hands to weak hands, which allowed me to bring confluence to the decision I made in my portfolio to take profits on my crypto positions, which allowed me to save the furniture, as I told you. We arrive here in this block right here. Now, what worries me a little is that we are accumulating a lot of liquidity to the south, below each low. So, for that, it's not very confluent for a bullish recovery. But for now, the structure is more or less bullish. Okay, so for now, I would say I am quite neutral on this stock. I think we still have a lot of liquidity to potentially seek, but it's not impossible that we move directly. So that's why currently, it won't help us much, but it's still interesting to consider. Although here, we have equal lows, which is also liquidity. So currently, we are really between two liquidity zones here and here. So I will monitor for now the short to medium-term structure, which is rather bullish. So we could anticipate a bullish recovery. But as I told you, it's not a high probability bias, so I won't make a definitive conclusion on this stock. Now, on Total 3, what we've had is very, very interesting: we've returned precisely to this demand zone. Personally, I didn't expect it. I didn't think we would return so soon. Now, I expected the return to this zone when we had this expansion, I expected a return. I probably already mentioned this if you remember. Finally, we didn't have it. We had the creation of this liquidity. So I expected simply the liquidation of this trendline to return here to this demand zone and then go back up. Finally, you see, we are at this level, but we have pierced it, we have pierced it to then rebound. So currently, I clearly think, honestly, at first glance, the setup is very, very bullish. Why? Because what we have here, if I report it, we would have a bullish structure that we break. We go bearish. Okay, except that the reality is that if we look, if we zoom out a bit, what's happening is that we have this. Tick. We have this. Okay. And what we notice is that we break bearish structures, for example, here or here, to probably continue the bullish structure on a higher timeframe. This is called the fractality of timeframes. And so we could anticipate a potential protected low afterwards, once we break this high, but especially a bullish continuation of the structure, which for now is clearly bullish. The only downside is that we don't have bullish confluence with liquidity, for example. If we hadn't broken this market high, we would have confluence with liquidity because we would have accumulated a lot of liquidity above this market high for several months. Okay. But for now, we don't have liquidity here. Well, there is, of course, but it's a bit negligible, let's say. It's not necessarily something that will give us high probabilities for a rise. After, you see, well, we obviously have liquidity here and here. Will we recover them? It's not certain, but okay. For now, I am rather bullish, even if we have small trendlines forming. So again, this is the kind of setup to watch because the bias can obviously change in the coming days depending on what the price does. Now, I also wanted to show you Tao. My bias on Tao was quite unclear, even though, of course, in the medium term, I was rather bullish, but I recently shared this zone with you, which, in my opinion, was the next target: $258. We hypothesized that we might come to recover the liquidity. So this support, as you see, we have two equal lows here and here, at the same level, which creates a support that encourages participants to buy, and therefore, there are generally high probabilities that we will liquidate this level. So, in this case, I didn't expect it at all. We were here, I didn't expect at all that in one hour we would liquidate this level and then go back up. It's done, and it's precisely thanks to this liquidation that Tao didn't crash like Atom, as we saw. Why? Because here we have a lot of participants who probably bought in this liquidity pool. Okay? So it's quite interesting, and that allowed the order book to go back up and to normal. So for now, in any case, what I see is the liquidation of a trendline, then the liquidation of another liquidity pool. The market moves from liquidity pool to liquidity pool, and so, personally, the protected high will be here at the level of $400. If we break it clearly, we are not associated, but what I will anticipate is exactly the same as on Bitcoin, meaning a sideways movement here. In my opinion, we will come to recover this low, okay, we will go below $258, I clearly think we will do something like this, tick, to then, in any case, personally, this is what I will watch, what I will try to anticipate on Tao. Ethereum is one of the cryptos that suffered the least from these major movements. So, I expected a return to this demand zone that we had. I was looking for an entry. Well, you can imagine that I didn't have time to look for an entry. Given the volatility, there were zero entries in this demand zone at the $420 level. When I shared it with you, we were just here. Okay, I sent it to you on the TG channel. By the way, it's free, you can join it, the link is in the description. So, we retraced the movement well. I didn't look for an entry, I didn't find an entry, sorry, I didn't intervene to buy. And afterwards, we pierced it, we completely crossed this demand zone. So we even crossed this one. So you see, it's quite crazy. And here, well, it's not necessarily exceptional, what we're doing. We're creating support here. So, it's liquidity. Okay. So, for now, I am quite perplexed. We have liquidity to the north in the short term, so above this high here, we will recover it. It's very, very probable. But we will also recover this one. So you see, we are in a kind of range between these two levels, at $3913 and $3700. Okay? So, in my opinion, either we will do this, this, this. Okay? Or we will do something like this, tick, to finally, in any case, we will recover these two liquidity levels. Okay? And then, we will have to monitor how the context intertwines to try to define a high-probability bias on cryptos. Well, the fact is, there's not much interesting, I just wanted to show you. So, we did return to this demand zone that I had shared with you several months ago when we were here, okay, when we were around here, I expected a return to this demand zone at $0.52. Well, you see, we did return, we literally crashed. Okay, so it's a shame, I was watching this setup. It could have been interesting because we were creating a small triangle here, you see. And what often happens, not in 100% of cases, as you can see, but what often happens is that we liquidate to the south to then aim for the north. So this is quite interesting because we have a lot of liquidity above each high right here. Well, the context caused us not to turn around directly, but it's not too late. But what is very, very interesting and quite crazy is that we returned to the demand zone right here at the level of 10 cents. I don't know if you realize, it's a level we haven't reached since December 2022, almost 3 years ago. Okay. End of 2022 is when we had the FTX bottom. It was in November, but about a month off, you understand. So that's pretty crazy. And since the wick, we are already at 3.6. So personally, I didn't buy any, of course. You had to be extremely quick. I wasn't even at the computer at that moment, I arrived after the fact. But in any case, the volatility that occurred is quite crazy, and especially the level we're returning to, which is over 2.5 years old. Now, it's also very interesting to look at what happened with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. So, the NASDAQ first. Now, I'll just show you a bit what happened here on the NQ. It was a movement that I had perfectly anticipated and shared with you on Telegram. I explained it to you on Telegram, I shared it with the academy members directly on the private Discord server. So it was a setup, I expected the recovery of the Asian High, which is liquidity. Then the recovery of this low. For me, there was liquidity below these lows. We had the liquidation of the lows to then go for higher highs and simply continue the bullish structure. So, exactly what I anticipated happened. So, that was truly magnificent. So, I'm just explaining the setup so that you understand a bit what's happening and that the market moves from liquidity pool to liquidity pool. You see, we really had a resistance. On top of that, the Asian session - it's a high created during the Asian session. The Asian session is very interesting to analyze on Western pairs or indices. Okay, we liquidate, tick, and then we go for another liquidity pool to continue the bias. We always stick to the bias first. Okay. Afterwards. So, here's how the movement happened. You see, we have a big trendline liquidation here. We have a lot of buy orders being executed on the market. The Smart Money on the other side sells, and then the order book simply shifts. Okay, so it was extremely volatile. I've never seen that, honestly, -4% to -4.7% on the NASDAQ, it's just huge because, as you know, the NASDAQ is an index that groups tech companies, and tech companies are extremely dependent on Chinese imports, especially semiconductors, etc., etc., etc. Okay. So, for me, here, we will return to the 23900 USD here on the INI, and I think we could potentially establish a bottom here. We'll have to see, but I think we'll have a few days where things will calm down a bit. In any case, I'm waiting for the US opening on Monday to potentially refine this bias a bit. If we look at the S&P 500, it's generally the same thing. We have, roughly, as you see, 4% as well, a little less than the NASDAQ, which is a bit less volatile, the S&P 500. But for now, we are coming into this block, this basic block, we can zoom in like this. Similarly to the NASDAQ, I will wait for Monday's US opening, but in any case, I expected the recovery of these equal lows and this demand zone that I had already drawn. I had drawn it like this before, I had refined it a bit, but indeed, the block is interesting, a bit less refined. So, I think in any case that we will be able to determine a slightly more relevant bias next week. You've probably seen it, I kept you somewhat informed, but the LVMH stock is executing our analysis very, very well. I shared the bottom of the bottom with you, you really couldn't get more bottom. It was really at €440 for the LVMH stock. So, as you know, the famous French company, we went up by +33% on the stock in a few months. So, it's really a very good performance, about 3 months, and as you see here, we are retracing at the liquidation of the trendline. So, we are recovering liquidity, as I told you, there were huge probabilities that we would recover this level. Well, it's done, which represented a 30% performance, which is not negligible. In my opinion, we will come here to recover these two lows, recover this demand zone at $527, and personally, I really think again that we have the bottom on the LVMH stock. Now, obviously, we can, we can potentially have surprises. I will stay alert on this, but I think we can go directly to seek higher highs, which would allow us to achieve a very good performance of about 100% until the ATH. We also have oil, which is currently executing my analysis very well. Now, I no longer have my analysis here on this chart, but overall, what I expected, if you follow me a bit, I expected the liquidation of the trendline that we had here for a bearish continuation down to this demand zone. It's not certain we'll reach it, of course, but in my opinion, we will at least come to recover this liquidity right here at the level of $54-$55, and then potentially go for higher highs. In short, let's go back up. We might not reach $300, okay? But at least reach these market highs for the barrel. Okay. Which would be very interesting, and personally, I will really try to speculate on this movement afterwards, because here, it seems like a high probability that we will recover these levels right here. So, I really hope you enjoyed the video. If so, don't hesitate to like it, to subscribe if you haven't already, to join me on my Telegram channel, to join me also on Instagram, TikTok. In short, I have all the social media links in the description if you want to go a bit further into the content I share. In any case, it's a great pleasure to see you again. I will try to be a bit more regular on YouTube. You know, it's been a while since I took a little break from YouTube. I had been doing between 3 and 7 videos per week for nearly 2 years. So, I've calmed down a bit. It did me some good too. I was able to focus on other things. In any case, guys, I wish you a good afternoon, a good evening, and we'll see you very soon for another video, as usual. Alright, bye guys.