ฟองสบู่หุ้น AI ใกล้แตก? ทองคำรอจังหวะกลับตัวแรง

The price of gold is falling sharply, causing many people to ask the same question: is this truly the signal of the end of the gold bull market, or is it actually just a moment to shake out impatient investors before large sums of money start to flow back in? Today, global gold prices have been pushed down near a key zone around $4,000, while Thai gold is also fluctuating sharply, influenced by spot prices, the baht exchange rate, and concerns about the Fed. However, what's strange is that the Middle East is still not peaceful, risks regarding oil and transportation have not disappeared, and AI stocks are starting to be questioned as being too expensive. Yet, gold has not immediately surged. This is where investors need to read the game carefully, because the market now fears not just war, but also the Fed, interest rates, inflation, and the possibility that the AI stock bubble may be starting to burst simultaneously. If US economic data comes out stronger than expected, gold may be further suppressed and fall below $400. But if AI stocks truly start to collapse, or if the Fed starts to speak more softly, gold could reverse very quickly, leaving many without the opportunity to get such good prices again. Therefore, in this clip, we will look at whether on June 30, 2026, we should buy more gold, wait, or prepare for a major swing.

The gold price trend for June 30, 2026. I must first say that the current picture is not one where gold has lost its value, nor that the major bull run for gold has ended, nor that gold has suddenly become an uninteresting asset. It's just that the market is currently in a phase where it fears the Fed more than war. This is a very important point. Many investors may be confused as to why the Middle East is still not peaceful, why the risk of oil remains, why global political news still seems chaotic, yet gold prices have not risen and have instead been pushed down near the $400 zone again. The answer is that the market is not just looking at war news alone. The market is considering what happens if war makes oil more expensive, if more expensive oil brings back inflation, and if inflation returns, what will the Fed do next? This is the real game of the market right now. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. Therefore, when the market starts to believe that the Fed may have to raise interest rates, or at least cannot easily lower them, short-term money will flow to the dollar, to bonds, or to assets that provide interest income first. It doesn't mean investors hate gold, but it means they are hesitant whether holding gold in the short term can beat interest rates. Because if bond yields remain high, the dollar remains strong, and the Fed continues to speak hawkishly, gold will naturally be pressured. Simply put, if you have one option that earns interest and another option that is gold, which requires waiting for price appreciation, the short-term market will start asking, "Why should I rush to buy gold now?" This is why gold prices are falling, even though the global big picture is not yet safe. However, we must distinguish between the short term and the long term; they are not the same. In the short term, gold is suppressed due to the Fed, the dollar, bond yields, and the market waiting for US economic data, especially labor figures to be released this week. If employment figures come out stronger than expected, the market will immediately interpret that the US economy is not yet broken, the Fed still has room for high interest rates, or may even become more hawkish, and gold may be sold further. But if the figures are weak, and labor starts to slow down, the Fed will find it harder to speak hawkishly, because if they raise rates too aggressively and the stock market collapses, the economy collapses, the problem will be bigger than inflation. Therefore, at this juncture, gold is like being held down, waiting for the market to see clearer signals.

For Thai investors, there is an additional layer to understand: Thai gold does not only rise and fall with global gold, but also with the baht. Currently, if global gold falls but the baht weakens, Thai gold may not fall as much as many think. But if global gold falls along with a strengthening baht, Thai gold will be pressured more severely. Therefore, when looking at domestic gold prices, do not just look at the global gold chart; you must also look at the baht, the dollar, and which safe-haven assets the market is moving towards. Because at times, money flows into the dollar first, then gold. At other times, money flows into bonds first, then gold. And at times, when fear truly deepens, gold will begin to become the hero again. The most important point for this period is the $4,000 zone. If gold prices touch or break this zone lightly, and there is no significant selling pressure afterward, it may be a signal that sellers are running out of steam, and the market no longer wants to dump more gold. This could be an accumulation opportunity for those looking at the long term. But if it breaks below $400 and falls sharply, along with a strong dollar, rising bond yields, and good US economic data, be wary that gold may be dragged down deeper before establishing a new base. Therefore, do not rush to conclude that if gold falls, you must sell, or if gold falls, you must buy everything immediately. The market at this time requires a strategy of dividing purchases rather than full-portfolio confidence. I still see the same big picture for gold: it has not been lost. If we look 2-3 years ahead, the problems of inflation, government debt, war, and distrust in the financial system have not disappeared anywhere. What is happening now is just a period where the market fears the Fed more than other risks. But it is precisely this kind of market that often causes impatient people to sell good assets at prices they shouldn't. And when the Fed starts to change its tone, or risky stocks truly start to collapse, gold may reverse very quickly, leaving those waiting for clarity unable to buy in. Therefore, the answer today is that gold has not lost its value, but the market is testing the patience of gold holders, and those who will win in this round are not those who guess correctly every day, but those who still have money, have a plan, and do not panic when the market shakes violently.

Now, let's continue with the Middle East issue, as this is another matter that confuses gold investors during this period. Many people think that if there is conflict in the Middle East, gold must rise immediately, right? But this time, the picture is not that simple, because the market is not just looking at the word "war" and buying gold instantly like in some past periods. Instead, the market is considering what this conflict will affect first: will it affect oil? Will it affect inflation? Will it affect interest rates? And ultimately, how will it affect the Fed's stance? Therefore, when there is news of negotiations, ceasefires, or new discussions, the stock market quickly rebounds, oil prices begin to ease, but gold does not surge immediately because people are still uncertain whether this issue is truly resolved or just a temporary respite. What needs to be understood is that signing an agreement or announcing a ceasefire does not mean trust will return immediately. This is very important. It's like two parties who have been arguing for a long time, and suddenly say they won't argue today. Would people around believe it immediately? Probably not everyone. We have to wait and see if they really stop shooting, if shipping vessels dare to resume full operations, if insurance companies will reduce risk premiums, if oil exporters will be confident, if energy importing countries will dare to plan long-term. All of this does not return to normal in a single day. Therefore, even if the headlines say the situation is cooling down, the cost of distrust still remains in the system. And this is what may become a medium-term inflationary pressure. If oil still carries risk, transportation prices still carry risk, if shipping through key routes still carries risk, shipping companies will have to charge higher risk premiums. As transportation costs increase, product costs increase. As energy costs increase, fertilizer becomes more expensive, food becomes more expensive, and ultimately, inflation will return to pressure consumers worldwide, especially countries that import energy or countries where food and transportation costs have a high proportion. For Thailand, we also need to consider this, because if global oil fluctuates sharply, the currency will fluctuate, and domestic product costs are likely to be passed on. And when inflation risks return, the US Federal Reserve will have reasons to speak more hawkishly again. This is why Middle East news can sometimes be positive for gold in the long term, but negative for gold in the short term. Simply put, war makes people afraid, and fear should lead to buying gold. But war also makes oil expensive, expensive oil causes high inflation, high inflation forces the Fed to be hawkish, a hawkish Fed causes the dollar and bond yields to pressure gold. This is the cycle currently happening in the market. Therefore, those who only look at headlines like "Middle East erupts, gold must rise" may miss out. You need to read deeper to understand what the market fears most. If the market fears war more than the Fed, gold will rise sharply. But if the market fears the Fed more than war, gold will be suppressed first, even if war news is not over.

Another interesting point is that when there are discussions between major powers or new negotiation tables are set up, the market tends to quickly become optimistic. Stocks rebound, oil prices fall, and risks seem to decrease. But in reality, conflicts of this magnitude are not resolved simply by two people shaking hands. There are many groups, many interests, many countries, and many power networks behind them. Some groups may want to stop, some may not. Some parties may use negotiations to buy time, some may use pressure on the ground to increase bargaining power. Therefore, when the market rejoices quickly, we must be cautious whether it is premature rejoicing. For gold, I see the Middle East issue as still a major underlying support, but not an immediate catalyst for prices to surge today or tomorrow. If gold is to surge again, we need to see one of the following clearly: the conflict escalates to the point where the market truly fears the energy transport system, or oil prices surge to the point where the market starts talking about another round of inflation, or risky stocks can no longer bear the pressure, and money genuinely flows back into safe-haven assets. If there are just sporadic news of shootings, negotiations, or ceasefires, the market may still fluctuate confusedly, and gold may continue to be suppressed near the key zone. Therefore, the strategy for June 30, 2026, is: do not read Middle East news superficially. Do not see ceasefire news and think gold's run is over. And do not see clash news and think gold must surge immediately. We need to see how the market responds, how oil responds, how the dollar responds, how bond yields respond. If risks remain but gold does not fall further, it may be a sign that prices are already absorbing a lot of bad news. But if the news is calm and gold continues to fall while the dollar strengthens, be wary that the market still chooses to believe the Fed more than war.

Now, let's look at another matter that I think is very important for gold during this period: AI stocks. Many people may wonder what AI stocks have to do with gold. They have a lot to do with it, because the financial markets are not actually separate as we think. The same money in the world is constantly seeking returns. When people are very confident, they chase stocks, technology, and risky assets. When people start to fear, they bring their money back to a safe haven, whether it's cash, bonds, or gold. Therefore, if we are to read the gold market today, we must also see how much longer the money that is currently flowing into speculative AI stocks can continue to flow, or if it is starting to get tired. The picture of AI stocks must be stated fairly. AI is not a scam. AI is a real technology, with real applications, with companies that can generate profits, and in the long run, it may truly change the world. But the problem with the stock market is not whether the technology is real or not. The problem is whether stock prices are running too far ahead of reality, whether investor expectations are too high, and whether future profits that the market is pricing in today are too much. This is what needs to be watched, because many times in the past, bubbles have not always been caused by worthless things. Sometimes, bubbles are caused by genuinely good things, but people pay too much for them. Currently, the US stock market, especially large technology groups and AI-related stocks, has risen significantly in the preceding period. Many were bought based on the belief that AI would conquer the world, transform industries, and cause these companies to grow without limits. But the question is, if bond yields remain high, if interest rates are expensive, if the cost of capital remains high, can stocks bought with very long-term dreams still be chased in the same way? This is what the market is starting to ask. It's not that people have stopped believing in AI, but people are starting to ask if the current price is worth it. If I buy today, how many years will I have to wait for profits to be reasonable? And when such questions start to arise, the market picture changes immediately. From stocks rising every day, people daring to chase prices, people fearing missing out, to when strong selling pressure comes in, people become more cautious. Stocks that rebound are no longer chased with the same enthusiasm. Good news may not lead to significant gains. A little bad news may lead to sharp selling. This is a symptom of a market where money is starting to get tired. It doesn't mean the bubble has burst yet, but it means the market needs to exert more and more effort to push prices up. And if new money doesn't come in enough, prices will start to fluctuate more and more. How does this connect to gold? It connects in that in the preceding period, gold may have been seen as boring because AI stocks were rising faster, so people took their money to play with tech stocks, to play with assets that seemed more exciting, leaving gold behind, even though the big picture for gold was still good, but the market just wasn't interested. Simply put, gold wasn't bad, but it wasn't the protagonist when people were intoxicated with AI stocks. But if one day AI stocks truly start to falter, people become afraid to chase rebounds, and sell stocks that have risen, with people waiting to offload, money will have to ask itself again: if I'm not buying AI, what will I buy? Some may flow into bonds, some may hold cash, some may look for dividend stocks. But gold also has the opportunity to come back into consideration immediately, because gold has a distinct advantage over stocks: it doesn't rely on company profits, doesn't rely on management, doesn't rely on business models, and doesn't rely on whether companies can achieve their dreams. Gold is an asset that people hold when they start to distrust the system more, when they distrust interest rates, distrust paper money, distrust government debt, or distrust excessive speculation. But here, one must be patient. Don't think that if AI stocks fall a little, gold must rise immediately. The real market has a time lag. Sometimes, when stocks fall, gold also falls because people need cash, need to reduce their portfolios, need to sell everything to get liquidity, as we have seen many times when the market panics. In the initial phase, gold may not rise immediately. But when the dust settles, people start to distinguish which assets are too expensive, which still have value, and which are safe havens. Then gold will begin to return, and often returns strongly when most people are still hesitant. Therefore, for June 30, 2026, I want you to watch not only the gold chart but also AI stocks. If AI stocks continue to rebound strongly, the market may become lively again, and gold may continue to be suppressed or remain stagnant. But if AI stocks rebound but cannot go further, and selling pressure follows, or there is news that makes the market question AI profits and investments more, this will be an important signal that money may start to move out of risky assets, and gold may start to gain support in the next round. Simply put, gold may not need its own good news; if AI stocks start to falter, gold may immediately become the protagonist again.

Now, let's look at Thai gold, because for investors in Thailand, what we actually trade is not just the global gold chart, but the domestic gold price, which is calculated from several factors simultaneously: spot gold, the baht exchange rate, the dollar exchange rate, and market premiums. Therefore, sometimes we see that global gold falls sharply, but Thai gold does not fall as much as expected, or sometimes global gold does not fall much, but Thai gold falls more than before because the baht has strengthened, adding to the downward pressure. This is something investors must understand well, otherwise, we will be confused by the prices at the counter all the time and may make wrong decisions when the market is fluctuating strongly. Currently, Thai gold prices have adjusted down from a zone that many felt was very hot before. However, "cheaper" does not mean you should put all your money into buying immediately. This must be distinguished. A lower price is an opportunity for those with a plan, but a trap for those without a plan. Because if we buy without dividing purchases, without reserve funds, without prior planning, when the price falls a little further, our hearts will start to falter. From initially thinking of holding long-term, it turns into wanting to sell. From initially thinking it was an opportunity, it turns into feeling like we are stuck in a high position. Therefore, strategy during this period is more important than guessing where the bottom is. I still believe that Thai gold in this zone is becoming interesting for long-term accumulation, but it is not a zone where one should go all-in, because there are still many major variables waiting, especially US economic data, the Fed's stance, the dollar, bond yields, and the baht. If global gold breaks below $400 and falls sharply, Thai gold still has the potential to be suppressed further, even if the baht may provide some support at times. But if global gold holds steady and the baht is not very strong, Thai gold prices may start to stop falling and rebound. Therefore, this is not a point where we should be overly confident, but a point where discipline in gradually accumulating is needed. For those who do not have gold at all, or have very little, I think you can start dividing purchases, but they must be spaced sufficiently apart, not buying one lot today, and if it falls a little tomorrow, buying another lot, and then if it falls further, running out of money. This is not investing with a system. If you are to buy gradually, you must first consider how much total money you have, what percentage of your portfolio you want to hold in gold, and how much further you can tolerate price declines. If you intend to accumulate long-term, divide it into several lots, such as some when the price starts to fall to a zone you can accept, and keep money aside to wait if there is another sharp drop. This method may not result in buying at the cheapest price for every lot, but it helps you not to be too stressed and still have money to manage if the market is not favorable. For those who have already bought gold, especially those who bought at higher zones, do not panic and sell just out of fear. If you initially bought with a long-term perspective, the big picture for gold does not change easily. The problems of inflation, government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and financial system risks have not disappeared. However, if you bought too much to the point where you are now stressed and can't sleep, or have no cash left, when gold rebounds, you may need to consider selling some to restore liquidity to your portfolio, not selling because you don't believe in gold, but selling to have reserves and an opportunity to buy more if prices dip further. This is about portfolio management, not just direction guessing. Another point to watch is the baht. If the baht weakens, Thai gold will receive support, even if global gold may not rebound strongly. But if the baht strengthens along with weakening global gold, Thai gold will suffer more than usual because it is being pressured from two sides. Therefore, those who buy gold in Thailand must follow USD THB concurrently, not just look at global gold figures, because sometimes Gold Spot falls 1%, but Thai gold may fall more or less depending on the currency. Currently, if the baht fluctuates around 33 baht and above, the Thai gold market will remain quite sensitive to dollar news and the US central bank's stance. Simply put, Thai gold is currently in a boring but interesting zone. The boredom is that prices are not yet moving to make holders feel comfortable, and most news still makes the market fear that prices may fall further. But the interest is that prices have fallen to near a level where long-term investors can gradually accumulate. And those who will win in the gold market during this period are not the most daring, but those who divide their money, are patient, and do not let the market's fear dictate their own plan. Remember, buying gold when everyone is excited is usually not the best price. But buying gold when everyone is bored, fearful, and doesn't want to talk about gold, is sometimes the point that yields the best returns in the next 2-3 years. But all of this requires a plan, not an all-in approach.

For June 30, 2026, I believe gold is at a point where the market needs confirmation signals rather than opinions. Because currently, opinions in the market are clearly divided into two camps. One camp says that gold has fallen a lot and is nearing the end of its correction, and the zone near $4,000 is a zone where accumulation should begin. But the other camp says that if the Fed remains hawkish, the dollar remains strong, and US economic data is not bad, gold may not need to rebound quickly. Therefore, at this point, if we are to analyze usefully, we must not just say whether it will go up or down, but set conditions: if this happens, do this; if that happens, be cautious. This is the appropriate method for a market that has not yet chosen a clear direction. The first signal to watch is the $4,000 zone for global gold. This zone is not just a nice number, but a major psychological zone. Because if gold prices can stay above $4,000 and buying pressure starts to return, the market will begin to see that selling pressure is diminishing, and gold may be forming a new base. But if it breaks below $400 sharply, with a long red candlestick, clear selling volume, and a strengthening dollar simultaneously, be wary that the market may drag it down to test deeper support levels, because many who are waiting to buy will become fearful, and many who hold it will be forced to sell. This is where the market likes to shake people out of their portfolios. Therefore, do not just look at whether it breaks or not; you must also see if there is continued selling pressure after breaking. If it breaks and rebounds quickly, that may be a false breakout. But if it breaks and stays down, then be truly cautious. The second signal is the baht and dollar exchange rates. For Thai people, this is very important because Thai gold is calculated through the baht. If global gold falls but the baht weakens, Thai gold may not fall as much as many expect. But if global gold weakens along with a strengthening baht, Thai gold will be pressured from two sides. Therefore, those waiting to buy gold bars in Thailand should not just look at the USD chart and make a decision; they must look at USD THB as well. If the baht continues to fluctuate around 33 baht and above, and is not very strong, Thai gold may still have some support. But if the baht strengthens and falls rapidly while global gold is still weak, the price at the counter may fall further, and that may be an opportunity for those who still have cash, but a source of stress for those who have already bought with their full portfolio. The third signal is US economic data and the Fed's stance. This week, the market is particularly waiting for labor figures. Because if employment remains strong, the market will interpret that the US economy can withstand high interest rates, so the Fed has no reason to soften its stance quickly. And in this case, gold may still be suppressed. But if the figures weaken, the stock market starts to shake, AI groups become unable to rebound, or there is more selling pressure in risky assets, the Fed will find it harder to speak hawkishly. Because the Fed looks not only at inflation but also at economic stability and the labor market. If the market starts to truly fear an economic slowdown, gold will begin to gain support from the expectation that the Fed may have to soften its stance, even if inflation has not completely disappeared. Therefore, I will divide the picture for June 30 into three scenarios.

Scenario 1: Gold stays above $4,000 and starts to rebound, with the dollar not strengthening significantly. This is considered a good signal for gold in the short term. There may be speculative buying returning, and Thai gold also has the opportunity to recover, especially if the baht does not strengthen too much.

Scenario 2: Gold breaks below $400, but not sharply. It breaks and rebounds quickly. This may be a waiting game for large players, shaking out those with stop-loss orders or those who are not firm in their conviction, before reversing. In this scenario, those with a plan to buy gradually can consider it, but must buy in divided lots, not all at once.

Scenario 3: The scenario to be most cautious about is gold breaking below $400, along with a strengthening dollar, rising bond yields, AI stocks not yet collapsing, and US data coming out well. In this case, gold may continue to be suppressed, because the market will interpret that the Fed still has the power to suppress inflation and does not need to help the market anytime soon. If this scenario occurs, those with cash should not rush to spend it all; wait for the selling pressure to weaken first. Those who already have gold should not panic and sell at the bottom, but should check if their portfolio can withstand the fluctuations. If they hold too much to the point of stress, when prices rebound, they may reduce some holdings to increase liquidity. But if they hold in an appropriate proportion and look long-term, the big picture is not a point to flee the market.

In summary, now is not a selling point out of fear, but it is also not a point to be reckless. The market is testing both gold holders and those waiting to buy gold. If you have a plan, this zone is one to pay attention to. But if you don't have a plan, this zone will easily lead you to make wrong decisions. What needs to be done is to look at all three signals: the $4,000 zone, the baht, and US economic data. If all three start to align for gold, gold may reverse very quickly. But if they don't align, you must have reserves to withstand the fluctuations. Because the market at this time does not reward only those who guess correctly, but rewards those who are patient, have a plan, and do not run out of money before the real opportunity arrives. Finally, the lesson from this round is that gold does not rise or fall because of a single piece of news, but depends on the Fed, the dollar, the baht, war, oil, and fear in the AI stock market. Those who survive are not those who guess correctly every day, but those who have a plan, divide their money, and do not go all-in when market sentiment is too strong. From now on, if gold can stay above the key zone and AI stocks truly start to falter, we may see some money flow back into gold very quickly. But if US data remains strong, gold may be suppressed further before forming a new base. The question is, is the market trying to make us afraid, or is it warning us to be more cautious? What do you think? Should gold be accumulated gradually now, or should we wait for it to fall further? You can comment your opinions below. If this clip is useful, please like, subscribe, and share your views below the clip.