Transcription
I'm Dr. Orion Taraban, and this is Cycax. Better Living Through Psychology. And the topic of today's short talk is the way it all ends. So, this is a long one, but it's an important one. It's also one for the ladies. So, guys, forward this on to your sisters and daughters. They need to hear this.
All right, let's start by taking a high-level look at the state of the sexual marketplace in the present day, shall we? Fewer people are getting married, entering into relationships, or even hooking up than ever before. All three of these things are at historically unprecedented lows. And there are many, many reasons for this. However, one of the primary drivers of this phenomenon, as discussed in the previous episode, is female hypergamy coupled with the reality that in the West, young women are doing very well. Childless women under 30 are outperforming men in that demographic in almost every quantifiable metric, and most notably in education and earning. Yay, women! That said, if women retain their tendency to mate and date up, and if young men are underperforming relative to young women, then there will simply be a smaller and smaller pool from which most women would be willing to select a partner. And since women are the gatekeepers of sex, and men are the gatekeepers of commitment, and since sex precedes commitment in the West, we see the trickle-down effect mentioned before. Less sex leads to fewer relationships, leads to fewer marriages.
Now, this would actually be a much easier problem to solve, were it not for one little thing, namely women. Despite all their modern ideas about gender, sex, and power, they are still waiting for the offer. As discussed previously, across all cultures and throughout history, the man has been expected to proposition the woman. This proposition can range from "You up?" to "Can I buy you a drink sometime?" to "Will you marry me?" But it is always the man who makes the offer to the woman. And this is peculiar because there doesn't seem to be like a necessary reason for this. Like, if we can collectively question the necessity of pretty much every other traditional gender role, I'm not sure why this one has survived to the present day. And just for the record, I would love to be taken out to dinner. Like, if you want to make all the plans and pay for everything, or if you want to invite me over for a home-cooked meal, I would be thrilled to show up and look pretty, provided, of course, you are sufficiently attractive, you meet all of my criteria, and you don't assume I'm just going to sleep with you because that would be creepy. And my eyes are up here. In any case, and for whatever reason, women don't seem interested in occupying this traditionally male role in the courtship process at all ages and at all levels of commitment. They are still waiting for the offer.
Now, on the surface, this doesn't seem to cause too many problems for women in their 20s. The offers might be coming in hard and fast, and it may reasonably seem like it's only a matter of time before an even better offer comes in, and they'll accept when they're ready. However, this attitude, while understandable, leads to a number of fairly predictable downstream consequences. This is because the game changes at 30. Previously discussed, 30 is the age at which the average male sexual marketplace value exceeds the average woman's sexual marketplace value for the very first time. And since men are presumably expected to make the same ultimate offer, namely marriage or a lifetime of commitment, protection, and provision, to a woman in her 20s as to a woman in her 30s or beyond, and since women's sexual marketplace value decreases across the same timeline, all other things being equal, the same offer becomes increasingly expensive as the woman ages. I'll say that again in a slightly different way. Since the offer is the same, but a woman's sexual marketplace value decreases as she ages, the same offer becomes increasingly expensive as a function of time. What this generally means is that if women don't adapt to changing conditions, they may find themselves priced out of the market, especially since they seem hell-bent against making the offer. This is why Mick Jagger crooned that time was on his side. Yes, it is.
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All right, let's try to put this all together, shall we? Given all the factors that we've discussed thus far: female hypergamy, young women's success relative to young men, changing SMV as a function of time, and the fact that women aren't making offers to men, there are actually only a few different ways this can possibly turn out. In fact, if we play the chess out 20 moves, we see that there are only five possible end games here for women. Can't give the exact odd ratios, but some are much more plausible than others. Let's briefly walk through all five scenarios. Remember, high-performing, attractive young women set an extremely high barrier to entry. Their success coupled with their hypergamy means that there are fewer potential mating and dating options for them. Their price tags, the value required to overcome their entry barriers to a sexual relationship, are very, very high. And since the majority of women are gunning for the same top 10% of men, the intersexual competition is astounding.
Now, on the other hand, while women are doing very well, the men to whom they are hypergamously attracted are, by definition, doing even better. These 10% of men have incredible optionality, and they may understandably be reticent to forego the buffet for the same meal for the rest of their lives. This creates the ironic paradox that the men who have what women want are the least likely to give it to them. Let me say that again: the men who have what women want are the least likely to give it to them. From their perspective, the women's demands are too expensive, and they only become more expensive as a function of time. And this phenomenon will intensify as the trends we've discussed continue. What this means is that given the assumptions I've already mentioned, there are only five end games for women. As you'll see, they logically cover all possible outcomes here. They are: A) Women keep their price tags high, beat out the intersexual competition, and secure the high-value man. B) Women lower their price tags in order to beat out the intersexual competition and secure the high-value man. C) Women keep their price tags high, fail to beat out the intersexual competition, and settle for a lower-value man. D) Women lower their price tags, still fail to beat out the intersexual competition, and settle for a low-value man. And E) Women neither secure nor settle and end up unpartnered. There are literally no other ways for the game to end.
So, which outcome is most likely? Feel free to pause the episode and take a guess. Now, since we're talking about behavioral economics and the exchange of value, the easiest way to approach an answer to this question is to consider what you, a woman, would do if you were shopping. To that end, would you ever, ever buy the exact same product from one vendor if you could get it more cheaply and easily somewhere else? Of course not. And that's why, though this is going to be hard for some women to appreciate, the most unlikely outcome by far is scenario A. Keeping your price tag high with men who are awash in optionality ain't gonna lead to a sale. That's it. Do you sometimes pay much more for a product from one vendor, even though you could get a similar product more cheaply and easily elsewhere? You do. Almost every woman I know owns a designer bag, which is a sack to hold things. You don't need to spend thousands of dollars on a sack, but you do need to spend thousands of dollars on a Versace sack. Now, Versace can charge thousands of dollars for a sack because they have demonstrated proof that women will pay thousands of dollars. They can beat out all the other sacks. They are the one percent of sacks, and a woman needs to be a one percent woman to have a Versace price tag. By definition, most women are not one percent women. They will lose to the intersexual competition for the top 10% of men if they keep their price tags high. This is not because these men can't afford the price tag, but because, like you, they are not going to spend more than they need to for the exact same product. So, scenario A is the least likely. It only happens about one percent of the time.
Next, appreciate the fact that even if every one of these top 10% of men wanted to get married and settle down, and they definitely don't, that would mean, by definition, a maximum of only 10% of women could possibly end up with one of these high-value men. And since 1% of women end up in scenario A, and since roughly one-third of the remaining men in this category, by a conservative estimation, will be uninterested in settling down at any one time, this means that about 6% of women can possibly end up in scenario B, making it the second least likely outcome. And of course, the cost of securing this outcome is women lowering their price tags. Women, are you more likely to buy the Versace sack at full retail or when it's on sale? Even if you could afford the full retail, wouldn't you be more motivated to act by the discount? Of course, you would, because that's rational. And if Versace wants to reach a clientele that would otherwise be priced out of its regular product, that is exactly what Versace needs to do. Excellent. We've covered the first two options, and there are still 93% of women left unaccounted for. Where are they going to go?
Well, since we know that 25% of women are unmarried at 40, a figure that's increased a whopping 25% in just the last 10 years, and 7% of women end up in the first two categories, that means that about two-thirds of women will face endgames C and D. And since my impression is that women, reproductive window notwithstanding, would genuinely and understandably prefer to remain unpartnered than resign themselves to a less desirable relationship with a lower-value man, I don't think there's an equal split here. That said, the desire for children and commitment can be very powerful in women, especially as they age. So, there is a split to be made. My hunch is that about 15% of women end up in scenario D. They lower their price tags, still fail to beat out the intersexual competition, and settle for a lower-value man, making it the third least likely outcome. And these women typically end up here out of pressure, necessity. Women, would you ever pay $20 for a mediocre sandwich? Probably, if you were at the airport and you didn't plan properly. In this scenario, the prospect of going 12 hours without food is more distasteful than being gouged for a disappointing meal. You will be willing to pay more for less if the prospect of going entirely without is more painful. Seen from the opposite perspective, this is why producers who create on a regular cadence, everyone from car manufacturers to fashion designers to local bakeries, radically discount their products right before the newer, fresher products are released. This is designed to capture customers who, for whatever reason, are unwilling or unable to wait just a little bit longer for a better option. Hence, pressured necessity. If you need the sale and your product is expiring, this is how you motivate action.
Now, next up is scenario E. These are women who are unable to secure and unwilling to settle, and they constitute a rapidly growing proportion of the population. As of right now, about one in four women will face this end game, and I think it will soon become one in three, making it the second most likely outcome. It's too harsh to say that these women end up alone. After all, there are people everywhere with whom you can have satisfying relationships, but they end up unpartnered and childless. In 2020, nearly 60% of women under 30 in the U.S. were childless, and frankly, this doesn't seem to bother most women in this demographic. Many of them are thriving, making good money, traveling the world, prioritizing their friends and their interests, and receiving lots of offers. However, as I can apparently never say enough, the game changes at 30. Just like a lot changes between the ages of 19 and 29, a lot changes between the ages of 29 and 39. Windows shorten, clocks wind down, and the fear of missing out rears its ugly head. Failing to plan is planning to fail. According to a 2010 meta-analysis, only 10% of ultimately childless women actively chose not to become mothers, and about 10% of the remaining women could not become mothers due to medical reasons. That means about 80% of women who never have children arrived at this outcome unintentionally. And this is not an even distribution across all women. The proportion of unintentionally childless women is significantly the highest among high-earning women with advanced degrees, namely with the women who were performing so well in their 20s. Men are typically not as interested in making offers to these women. Not, as is commonly believed, because they are intimidated by successful women. That is a cope for the women in question, but because these successful women are older. It takes time to get an advanced degree and build a career, and as we've seen, all other things being equal, the same offer becomes more expensive as a function of time. These women are also the least likely to surrender their hypergamous tendencies. After all, they've worked very hard to get to where they are, so why would or should they settle? It's an excellent question. However, the upshot here is that these women tend to price themselves out of the market more frequently than their less educated, lower-earning, and younger competition. And that leaves scenario C.
Since these five end games cover all the mutually exclusive outcomes, we can estimate that 53%, or roughly half, of all women will end up with lower-value men willing to pay a higher price tag. While a high-value man with lots of options may not be willing to offer, say, sexual exclusivity or a lifetime commitment, a lower-value man who might not be able to access the same sexual opportunity otherwise might. These men must offer more to compensate for their lower attractiveness. This means that most women end up with the relationship they want, but not with the man they would prefer. And this is what leads to a lot of low-grade marital dysfunction. As Chris Rock put it, "The number one reason why your woman's always mad is because you ain't her first choice." Link below. Not all women can afford a Versace sack, but that typically doesn't stop them from wanting one. And this can make them envious and unhappy, especially if they're scrolling. On the other hand, some women can successfully resolve this dissonance by making a virtue out of a necessity, which, all things being equal, is actually a very useful reframe. That is, rather than focus on the sack they wanted but couldn't afford, they recast the knockoff they bought at a significant discount as just as good. After all, the knockoff sack can hold at least as much as the Versace sack, and it may even be the more practical accessory for most occasions.
So, what's the upshot? At the end of the day, most women will end up with a perfectly serviceable option, so there's no need to give in to panic or dread. So, this is the approximate distribution of endgame likelihood when we look 20 moves ahead, and this distribution hinges on women's continued reticence to make the offer. Whether it's for a date or for a lifetime of provision, the game will change significantly if and when they cross that threshold. But this is how it roughly looks under the current state of play. Just keep in mind that these are kind of ideal odds ratios. They skew more disadvantageously to the women as the years go by. For most women, they will never have a better chance of securing the relationship they want with the man they prefer than today.
This has been Real Talk with Cycax. What do you think? Let me know in the comments below. And if you've gotten this far, you might as well like this episode and subscribe to this channel. You may also consider becoming a channel member with perks like priority review of comments or booking a paid consultation. As always, thank you for listening.