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LIVE FROM BLOOMBERG WEALTH WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I AM SCARLET FU.
TIM: LOOKING AT THE TECHNOLOGIES SHAPING THE WORLD. WE HAVE A BIG PROGRAM COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG CRYPTO OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE THINGS STAND WHEN IT COMES TO BITCOIN. IT IS HOVERING AROUND $70,000 PER BITCOIN. REALLY A RISK ON GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANALYSTS SAY THE ONLY WAY TO SEE IMPROVED RISK SENTIMENT WILL BE DE-ESCALATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST. YOU CAN SEE OVER THE LAST EIGHT DAYS WHAT HAPPENED. A PEAK OF OVER $75,000 PER BITCOIN LAST WEEK. IT FELT A LITTLE BIT JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. OVER THE WEEKEND, IT FELT. YESTERDAY, THE RISK ON SENTIMENT WHERE WE SAW THE RALLY IN EQUITIES, DECLINES IN OIL PRICES, SAW SOME BUYING AND NOW DOWN ABOUT 5% OVER THE LAST EIGHT DAYS. TRADING JUST SHY OF $70,000.
SCARLET: THE CONTEXT IS IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE IRAN WAR, THERE WAS SOME HOPE THAT BITCOIN COULD HOLD UP BETTER THAN OTHER ASSETS BUT AS THIS CONFLICT EXTENDS INTO A FOURTH WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE BITCOIN IS FALLING AND FAILING ITS LATEST SAFE HAVEN TEST. WHAT THESE BARS SHOW ARE THE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT ASSETS. AN INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SWISS GOLD WITH THE S&P 500. YOU LOOK AT THIS BAR AT THE BOTTOM, BITCOIN VERSUS THE S&P 500. IT SHOWS BITCOIN'S POSITIVE CORRELATION WITH U.S. STOCKS. AS U.S. STOCKS SELLOFF, BITCOIN IS SELLING OFF AS WELL AS OPPOSED TO OFFSETTING THAT DECLINE. LAST WEEK, BITCO CO-FOUNDER TALK ABOUT HOW CRYPTO TRADES DURING A TIME OF CRISIS.
>> BITCOIN HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF AS A GLOBAL LIQUIDITY VENUE. IF YOU NEED LIQUIDITY, YOU CAN GO TO BITCOIN AT SIZE 24 HOURS A DAY, SEVEN DAYS A WEEK PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE PLANET. IT IS OFTEN ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS THAT WILL BE USED TO GET LIQUIDITY WHEN IT IS NEEDED. WHETHER THAT IS SHORT OR MEDIUM TERM.
TIM: FOR MORE ON THE PRICE ACTION AND WHAT BITCOIN DOES DURING TIMES OF CRISIS AND WHAT WE ARE LEARNING, WE ARE JOINED BY THE SENIOR MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYST AT BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE. HE IS REPORTED ON BITCOIN'S ROLE AS A SAFE HAVEN ASSET. WE ARE ALL TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF WHAT BITCOIN DOES AND A TIME OF GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. STILL RELATIVELY SHORT TRACK RECORD. IS IT FAIR TO CALL IT A SAFE HAVEN ASSET?
>> IT WAS A COUPLE YEARS AGO AND I THINK THE EVOLUTION OF BITCOIN FIRST BEING CONSIDERED AS UNIT OF COUNT, STORE OF VALUE, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE HIGHER CORRELATIONS AS WE WERE SHOWING ON THE CHART, THAT USED TO BE THAT BITCOIN WAS NEGATIVELY CORRELATED THE S&P 500. INCREASINGLY THE LAST 12 MONTHS, IT HAS GONE UP TO 2.6. THE FACT THAT IT HAS BECOME MORE OF A RISK ON TRADE OR RISK OFF TRADE. THE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN THAT AS INSTITUTIONS HAVE BECOME MORE INVOLVED IN CRYPTO, IRONICALLY, THEY ARE INVOLVED THROUGH ETF'S. BITCOIN IS INCREASINGLY HELP IN DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIOS SO YOU TEND -- WHEN IT IS RISK OFF, YOU ARE SELLING ALL ASSETS AS MIKE WAS TALKING ABOUT. IT IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING LESS A HAVEN ASSET BECAUSE IT IS CORRELATED WITH THE S&P 500.
SCARLET: THAT CHART SHOWS HOW MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS OR SO. WHAT ROLE IS CRYPTO PLAYING IN THIS WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST? I'M WONDERING HOW IT IS BEING USED, HOWARD STABLECOINS BEING USED.
DUSHYANT: DOING A LOT OF WORK AROUND THAT. THINK ABOUT THE FACT THAT HOW TODAY WHEN WE SAY CRYPTO, INCREASINGLY PEOPLE DON'T ONLY THINK ABOUT BITCOIN AND TOKENS. PEOPLE HAVE A BROADER UNDERSTANDING OF EVERYTHING THAT IS ON CHAIN INCLUDING STABLECOINS. 12 MONTHS AGO, IF YOU SAID CRYPTO, THEY WOULD BE LIKE YOU ARE TALKING BITCOIN. THERE IS A REALIZATION THAT CRYPTO TOKENS WERE THE FIRST UTILIZATION OF THE BLOCKCHAIN STEC BUT THERE ARE MANY UTILIZATION'S WELL AROUND STABLECOINS. ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST, IF YOU LOOK AT THE ACTIONS OF VARIOUS COUNTRIES LIKE IRAN, LAST FIVE YEARS, THEY'VE BEEN USING BITCOIN MINING IS A WAY TO GET AROUND SANCTIONS. ALMOST HIT ABOUT 6% TO 8% OF GLOBAL MINING. IF YOU LOOK AT CHAIN ANALYSIS AND DATA. IT WAS RELATED -- GLOBAL MINING ABOUT 6% TO 8% WAS IRAN. ALMOST 70% OF THEIR MINORS WERE OWNED BY THE IRGC. WERE OWNED BY THE IRGC. -- THEY WERE USING MINING AS A WAY TO GET AROUND SANCTIONS FOR A WHILE, RIGHT? COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA WERE USING IT AS A WAY TO GET AROUND SANCTIONS BUT ON THE FLIPSIDE COUNTRIES LIKE LEBANON, WHICH ARE CAUGHT UP IN THIS WAR AND HAVE BEEN DECIMATED, GDP DOWN 4%, THREE OUT OF FOUR BANKS ARE CLOSED. FORGET ABOUT NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND A TELLER. IN THAT ENVIRONMENT, WE ARE SEEING PEOPLE, LEBANESE CITIZENS PAYING FOR GROCERIES WITH POINTS. IT'S AN EXAMPLE OF THE TRADITIONAL TANKING ELEMENTS OF FAILING AND HAVING LEBANESE FOREIGN IMMIGRANTS SENDING IT BACK IN BITCOIN.
TIM: IS AT AN INFLECTION POINT IN SOME SOCIETIES WHEN IT COMES TO THAT TECHNOLOGY? DOES IT LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ADOPTION?
>> THIS WAS ALREADY HAPPENING IN MANY OTHER COMPANY -- COUNTRIES. TILL NOW WE HAVE AND MASSIVE ADOPTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES BECAUSE MARGINAL BENEFIT COMPARED TO TRADITIONAL CURRENCY WAS NOT.
TIM: RIGHT, WHY USE STABLECOIN WITH SCARLET?
>> IF YOU HAVE GOT REAL PURCHASING POWER, IF YOU ARE IN THE LIRA OR THE PESO, THE RUBLE, THE CURRENCIES THAT SOLVE MASSIVE PAKISTANI RUPEES, RIGHT, YOU GO ON. 90% OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. IF YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES OR IN A WAR-TORN COUNTRY WHERE THE CURRENCY IS APPRECIATING MASSIVELY, PEOPLE HAD ONTO CRYPTO. THE U.S. WITH MASSIVE ADOPTION OF STABLECOINS FOR ALL KINDS OF REASONS.
SCARLET: DO YOU SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT STABLECOINS ARE BEING USED MORE FREQUENTLY IN THOSE PEDESTRIAN EXCHANGES AND NOT JUST IN COUNTRIES LIKE LEBANON THAT ARE MUCH MORE AFFECTED BY THE CONFLICT?
TIM: -- >> NOT REALLY. THE BIGGEST ADOPTIONS HAVE BEEN QUARTER TRANSFERORS. DEPLOYING ACROSS 450 COUNTRIES. WE ARE NOT SEEING IT AS A WAY, WE ARE NOT GOING TO A RESTAURANT IN USEC
SCARLET: LIAS -- PLEASE DON'T PAY THROUGH VENMO. [LAUGHTER]
TIM: AFTER EVERY SHOW. ALWAYS GOOD TO HAVE YOU. WELL, THIS ISN'T YOUR FIRST TIME, RIGHT TO HAVE YOU, HOPE TO SEE YOU AGAIN SOON. COMING UP, WE ARE SPEAKING TO JOHANSEN AT ROBINHOOD ON THE RECENT PUSHING TO TOKENIZATION. REMEMBER TO ACCESS THE LATEST NEWS AND DATA ON C R Y T GO ON THE TERMINAL. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET: TIME FOR A TOKEN MOMENT WHERE WE LOOK AT THE DIFFERENT EFFORTS TO TOKENIZED PARTS OF THE MARKET. AS PUBLIC EQUITIES BECOME TOKENIZED, MARKETS LIKE ROBIN HOOD HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY INVOLVED IN THAT. JOINING US NOW IS THE SENIOR -- IS JOHANN KERBRAT, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AT ROBINHOOD. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. GIVE US THE STATE OF PLAY IN TERMS OF THE TOKENIZED EQUITIES DRIVE. WHERE IS IT AT? I KNOW THAT IN EUROPE IT HAS REALLY TAKEN OFF, BUT JUST GIVE US THAT STATUS REPORT.
JOHANN: IN EUROPE IT HAS BEEN GREAT, WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF EXCITEMENT AROUND THE FACT THAT IT ISN'T JUST A FEW THAT YOU CAN PURCHASE ANYMORE. IT'S THE ENTIRE MARKET THAT IS COMING MORE AND MORE ON CHAIN. I THINK THAT IF THE U.S. WAS WAITING ON CLARITY, THEY WOULD PUSH FORWARD, BUT WHAT WE HEAR THERE IS THAT THERE IS STILL EXCITEMENT AND A LOT OF CHANCE FOR IT TO PUSH THROUGH.
TIM: I WAS DOWN IN BOCA AT THE MARKETS CONFERENCE IN TOKENIZATION AND PREDICTION WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL ANYONE WAS TALKING ABOUT. SEEMS LIKE WITH TOKENIZATION, THERE ARE SO MANY PLAYERS INVOLVED THAT NEED TO ESSENTIALLY MOVE INTO THIS DIGITIZED WORLD. I'M WONDERING WHAT ROLE ROBINHOOD HAS. WHAT CAN YOU DO IF YOU DON'T HAVE BUY-IN FROM THE OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS WHEN IT COMES TO SETTLING STOCK TRADE? WHAT CAN YOU DO THERE WITHOUT THEIR INPUT?
JOHANN: THERE ARE STILL LOTS OF THINGS WE CAN DO IT IT'S LIKE WE ARE IN DAY ONE, TO BE HONEST. IN TERMS OF TOKENIZATION AND BLOCKCHAIN, WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS BEING ABLE TO GIVE MORE ACCESS TO STOCKS AND OTHERS IN THIS WORLD IN TERMS OF OTHER KINDS OF ASSETS. EVERYTHING CAN BE TOKENIZED. THE REALITY IS THAT RIGHT NOW YOU SEE A LOT OF RISK WHERE WE ARE NOT MOVING ON TOKENIZATION AND ARE ACTUALLY EMBRACING IT ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BIG HEDGE FUNDS A BIG EXCHANGES USING TOKENIZATION. OUR ROLE IS GOING TO BE TO REMOVE THE COMPLEXITY, ABSTRACT TECHNOLOGY, LIKE THE BLOCKCHAIN, MAKING IT EASY TO USE FOR THE CUSTOMER AND GIVE THEM NEW OPPORTUNITIES TO USE THESE TOKENS ON CHAIN, BASICALLY, GIVING THEM MORE FEATURES AND HEALED.
SCARLET: AT LEAST IN THE U.S., WHERE IS THE FRICTION? WHERE DO YOU SEE -- NOT RESISTANCE, BUT SLOWDOWN IN TERMS OF FULL TOKENIZATION?
JOHANN: THERE
SCARLET: ARE SOME REGULATORY UNCERTAINTIES. IN TERMS OF PARTICIPANTS?
JOHANN: I DON'T THINK ANYONE IS PUSHING BACK AT THIS POINT. EVERYONE IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT IT. BUT YOU WILL ALSO SEE HOW WE BRING ALL THIS TECHNOLOGY ON. THERE'S STILL A LOT OF OLD SOFTWARE BEING USED ON THE DIGITAL PLATFORM, SO WE WILL HAVE TO BRING THAT AT SOME POINT.
TIM: YOU ARE GENERAL MANAGER OF CRYPTO AT ROBINHOOD. I'M WONDERING ABOUT PREDICTION MARKETS. WE KNOW THAT VLAD TENANT HAS BEEN SO OUTSPOKEN ABOUT WHAT HE THINKS IS A NEW ASSET CLASS. WHAT'S THE VENN DIAGRAM LOOK LIKE WITH PARTICIPANTS ON THE PLATFORM WHO PLAY IN THE CRYPTO SPACE BUT ARE ALSO DABBLING IN PREDICTION MARKETS ON YOUR PLATFORM?
JOHANN: WE DON'T REALLY SEE CANNIBALIZATION. WE SEE EXCITEMENT OVER TRADING ASSETS ON THE SAME PLATFORM.
TIM: LIKE ONE CUSTOMERS DOING EVERYTHING, ESSENTIALLY?
JOHANN: AND WE SEE THAT SOME PEOPLE ARE JUST DOING CRYPTO. I THINK THAT THERE ARE ALSO OTHER NEW WAYS TO INVEST FOR PEOPLE, INVESTING IN PARTICULAR EVENTS OR SITUATIONS, YOU CAN'T DO IT WITH JUST CRYPTO. THIS GIVING NEW WAYS FOR PEOPLE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE MARKET.
SCARLET: I'M INTERESTED THAT YOU USED THE WORD INVEST. DO PEOPLE INVEST IN PREDICTION MARKETS OR IS IT MORE ENGAGEMENT THAN ANYTHING ELSE?
JOHANN: I THINK YOU HAVE INVESTMENT AS WELL. LIKE WITH AI, IF YOU REALLY WANT TO THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE, YOU HAVE A FEW WAYS OF DOING IT. YOU CAN PICK A STOCK LIKE THIS AND YOU HAVE THE CHANCE THAT IT'S GOING TO NOT TURN CORRECTLY BECAUSE MAYBE THEY MISSED A QUARTER OR A DELIVERY. WITH THE EXPIRATION MARKET WE HAVE CONTRACTS AROUND AI THAT WILL BE THE BEST MODEL, FOR EXAMPLE, WHICH I THINK GIVES AN EASIER WAY FOR PEOPLE TO INTERPRET THE MARKET AND HEDGE AGAINST THE SITUATION.
TIM: I SAW SOMEONE COMPLAIN ON SOCIAL MEDIA THIS WEEK THAT THEY HAD TO SCROLL PAST PREDICTION MARKETS TO GET TO THEIR RETIREMENT ACCOUNT AND JUST LOOK AT IT. ESSENTIALLY SAYING THAT THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WHAT THEY SAW IS THAT GAMBLING DOESN'T MATCH HOW THEY VIEW INVESTING. HOW DO YOU SOLVE FOR THAT FROM LIKE A MARKET POSITION STANDPOINT?
JOHANN: ONE, YOU CAN ACTUALLY TURN IT OFF IN THE SETTINGS IF YOU DON'T WANT TO SEE THE PREDICTION MARKET, YOU CAN REMOVE IT. BUT FOR US IT WILL BE ABOUT PERSONALIZATION. WE NEED TO INVEST MORE INTO WHAT PEOPLE ARE EXCITED ABOUT, MAKING SURE THAT WE CAN PROPOSE IT TO THEM AND WE HAVE THIS ISSUE NOW WHERE WE HAVE ALL THESE TYPES OF ASSETS. EQUITIES AND CRYPTO'S, THERE'S A BANKING APP AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR US TO MAKE SURE THAT WE SHOW YOU WHAT YOU CARE ABOUT.
SCARLET: WHAT IS YOUR NUMBER ONE PRIORITY FOR 2026?
JOHANN: WE SPEND A LOT OF TIME ON INSTITUTION. WE HAVE THE BIT STAMP AND IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US TO MAKE SURE THAT THE TECHNOLOGY THAT WE BUILT, EVERYONE CAN BUILD IT. IN THIS WAY WE ARE IMPLEMENTING A LOT.
TIM: GOOD TO SEE YOU, THANK YOU JOHANN KERBRAT OVER AT ROBINHOOD. IN A FEW MINUTES WE HAVE AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH THE NEW MORGAN STANLEY HEAD OF DIGITAL ASSET STRATEGY IN A FEW MINUTES. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET: THIS IS BLOOMBERG CRYPTO. I'M SCARLET FU ALONGSIDE TIM STENOVEC.
TIM: IT IS THE INCREASING OVERLAP BETWEEN CRYPTO AND TRADITIONAL FINANCE. MORGAN STANLEY RECENTLY APPLIED FOR A CHARTER TO ALLOW IT TO CUSTODY DIGITAL ASSETS. JOINING US NOW IS AMY OLDENBURG, HEAD OF DIGITAL ASSET STRATEGY AT MORGAN STANLEY. HER FIRST TV INTERVIEW SINCE TAKING ON THAT ROLE. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON THIS. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE MIGHT BE WATCHING THIS THINKING WHY DOES THIS ESTABLISHED BANK THAT HAS BEEN A BANK FOR SO MANY YEARS NEED TO ACTUALLY APPLY FOR A NEW TYPE OF LICENSE TO POTENTIALLY CUSTODY DIGITAL ASSETS? CAN YOU EXPLAIN?
AMY: SO GOOD TO SEE YOU AND THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME ON THE SHOW TODAY. IT IS A GREAT QUESTION. IT IS A CONTINUED EXTENSION OF EVERYTHING WE ARE ALREADY DOING WITH THE FIRM AROUND INNOVATION. IT REALLY IS TRYING TO UNDERSTAND HOW WE OPERATE AS AN ORGANIZATION UNDER THE CURRENT REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT. HOW WE MAKE SURE WE ARE OPERATING BOTH WITH THE TRADITIONAL ASSETS WE NEED TO MANAGE AND THE NEW DIGITAL ASSETS, WHICH IN MANY CASES MAY REQUIRE DIFFERENT ENTITIES JUST TO MAKE SURE WE ARE KEEPING THINGS SEGREGATED. BUT IT COULD ALL CHANGE. WE ARE SEEING DIFFERENT REGULATORY OUTPUTS EVERY SINGLE WEEK, SO WE ARE TRYING TO KEEP PACE WITH ALL THE CHANGES AND MAKING SURE WE PIVOT AS THOSE THINGS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE.
TIM: WHAT DROVE THE DECISION FOR THIS APPLICATION? WAS IT A TOP DOWN, WE SEE WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE ECOSYSTEM AND SOMETHING WE NEED TO DO? OR ARE YOU HEARING FROM DIFFERENT CLIENTS WHO SAID THIS IS WHAT WE WANT FROM YOU AS OUR BANK THAT WE'VE USED FOR GENERATIONS? WHERE DID YOU GET THE MOTIVATION FROM?
AMY: IT IS COMING FROM BOTH DIRECTIONS. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING NEW FOR US. WE'VE BEEN WORKING IN TERMS OF THE BLOCKCHAIN, DIGITAL ASSET INFRASTRUCTURE FOR MANY YEARS. THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT THAT CHANGED BACK IN 2025 REALLY PUT US IN A POSITION TO ACCELERATE THAT MOMENTUM. WE ARE DOING THAT ACROSS ALL DIVISIONS OF THE FIRM. THAT IS ONE THING THAT IS MOST EXCITING RIGHT NOW. NOT JUST TURNING ON ONE NEW PRODUCT. IT REALLY IS UNDERSTANDING HOW THIS CHANGES EVERY BUSINESS WE ARE IN AND CONTINUING TO FIND THE NEW REVENUE LINES AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR US TO CONTINUE TO BUILD.
SCARLET: I KNOW A LOT OF IT IS PERHAPS THAT OF EUROPE -- OUT OF YOUR CONTROL GIVEN IT IS IN APPLICATIONS FOR A LICENSE BUT I'M CURIOUS HOW YOU SEE THIS SHAKING OUT. IS THIS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE EXECUTED IN 2026 OR DOWN THE LINE?
AMY: THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. WE HAVE DONE A LOT OF EXPLORATION UP UNTIL THIS POINT. I WOULD SAY 2026'S CONTINUED EXPLORATION THAT SHOWS WHERE THE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD. THE TEAM HAS BEEN WORKING VERY HARD ACROSS ALL THE DIVISIONS TO GIVE SOME OF OUR INITIATIVES TO SET UP. WE TALKED ABOUT CRYPTO TRADING ON THE ETRADE SIDE, EVEN THE INSTITUTIONAL SECURITY SIDE. THE ONE THING WE WANTED TO TALK ABOUT TODAY IS TURNING ON OUR DARK POOL SOURCE TRAJECTORY CROSSED TO SUPPORT TOKENIZED EQUITIES BY THE END OF 2026. THIS IS HAPPENING THIS YEAR. THERE IS A LOT OF ACTIVITY IN ALL DIVISIONS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO POWER THROUGH 2026 AND MORE TO COME IN 2027.
SCARLET: OK, THAT GIVES US A SENSE OF WHAT'S ON THE TABLE FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR. LAST WEEK, I NOTICED MORGAN STANLEY FILED FOR A BITCOIN ETF UNDER THE TICKER MSBT. IF APPROVED, MORGAN STANLEY WOULD BECOME THE FIRST MAJOR U.S. BANK TO DIRECTLY ISSUE AND SPONSOR YOUR OWN SPOT BITCOIN ETF. WHY DO THIS NOW? WHAT DOES HAVING YOUR OWN SPOT BITCOIN ETF ALLOW YOU?
AMY: I HAVE TO KEEP SOME THINGS FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKS. I DON'T WANT TO TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT IT UNTIL IT BECOMES EFFECTIVE BUT I THINK YOU WILL SEE SOME OF THE REASONS WE ARE DOING THAT AS THAT GOES LIVE. I THINK THERE'S STILL A LOT TO DO IN TERMS OF THE ATP SIDE. WE ARE SEEING MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY COMING THROUGH THE SELF-DIRECTED BUSINESS ON THE WEALTH CHANNEL AND MANY OTHER INTERMEDIARY PLATFORMS BEYOND THE WEALTH PLATFORM WE MANAGE DOES CONTINUE TO BRING MORE OF THOSE PRODUCTS TO MARKET. THERE IS MORE WE CAN DO HERE.
TIM: WHAT DOES THE CURRENT DATA FROM THE BANK SHOW ABOUT CRYPTO ADOPTION BY DEMAND RIGHT NOW? SORT OF BUY LIKE CLIENTS WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THIS. I'M CURIOUS WHERE THE DEMAND IS COMING FROM BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO VOLATILE ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. I'M JUST WONDERING WHAT YOU ARE HEARING FROM MORGAN STANLEY CLIENTS.
AMY: SO, THIS IS A REALLY INTERESTING SPACE FOR THE TRADITIONAL FINANCE FIRMS. ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE SEEING IS NOT ONLY JUST EXPOSURE TO BITCOIN, BUT IT IS ALSO MANY LONG-TERM SPOT BITCOIN HOLDERS OR OTHER CRYPTO HOLDERS LOOKING TO MOVE SOME OF THOSE ASSETS INTO THE TRADITIONAL FINANCE SPACE SO WE CAN OFFER THEM OTHER SERVICES AROUND THEIR EXPOSURE AND THAT WEALTH THEY'VE CREATED IN THE CRYPTO CHANNEL. I THINK THAT IS ONE THING WE ARE REALLY SEEING THIS COME TOGETHER. ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN SEC DO IS ALLOW IN-KIND TRANSFERS INTO ETP'S. I THINK YOU WILL SEE MORE OF THAT WHERE YOU SEE CRYPTOCURRENCY HOLDERS MOVE THEIR ASSETS INTO ETPS AND WE ARE ABLE TO OFFER THEM OTHER SERVICES AROUND THAT.
TIM: I KNOW YOU SAID YOU WANT TO HOLD SOME STUFF IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WHEN WE HAVE YOU BACK BUT I HAVE TO ASK, LAST FALL, THE HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT AT MORGAN STANLEY SAID THE BANK WAS EVALUATING BROADER USES FOR TOKENIZATION. CAN YOU UPDATE US ON THINKING THERE AND HOW THAT THINKING HAS EVOLVED IN JUST A FEW MONTHS?
AMY: I WOULD SAY THAT THINKING HAS EVOLVED TO THE POINT WE ARE LOOKING AT EVERY ASSET CLASS WE HAVE. IF IT IS EQUITIES, BONDS, STRUCTURED NOTES, PRIVATES. WHERE DOES THAT TOKENIZATION INFRASTRUCTURE -- THIS IS WHERE LEARNING WHAT THAT TECHNOLOGY DOES AND HOW WE CAN CREATE MORE EFFICIENT MARKETS FOR OUR CLIENTS AND A BETTER CLIENT EXPERIENCE. THAT IS ALL COMING TOGETHER AND WE ARE LOOKING AT EVERY ASSET CLASS ACROSS THE BOARD TO SEE WHERE WE CAN LEVERAGE THAT.
SCARLET: WHAT IS THE ASSET CLASS THAT COMES FIRST IN TERMS OF WHERE YOU WOULD MOVE QUICKLY?
AMY: I THINK WE ARE A BIT SURPRISED TO SEE -- THERE HAS BEEN THIS FLIP-FLOP OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. WE STARTED IN PRIVATES. IT HAS MOVED BACK OVER TO EQUITY AND COMING BACK TO PRIVATES A LITTLE BIT. I THINK IT IS BALANCING OUT -- WE'VE BEEN ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN THE TOKENIZATION OF EQUITIES. WE PARTICIPATED IN THE TOKENIZATION OF THE FIGURE SECONDARY A FEW WEEKS AGO. THAT IS LIVE AND HAPPENING WITHIN OUR INSTITUTIONAL SECURITIES BUSINESS. I CAN ALREADY TELL YOU WE ARE OFF AND RUNNING ON THAT. I THINK YOU WILL SEE HAS HIT THE GROUND WITH SOME OTHER PROJECTS HITTING SOME OF THE OTHER ASSET CLASSES LATER THIS YEAR.
SCARLET: REALLY APPRECIATE YOU JOINING US TODAY. AMY OLDENBURG OVER AT MORGAN STANLEY AND WE HOPE SHE WILL BE JOINING US AGAIN IN THE COMING MONTHS TO KEEP US UP-TO-DATE ON WHAT MORGAN STANLEY IS DOING. COMING UP NEXT, YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED LEDGER'S LOGO ON THE FRONT OF THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS JERSEY. IT IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF CRYPTO GOING MAINSTREAM. WE WILL TALK TO LEDGER'S CEO NEXT ABOUT POTENTIAL PLANS TO GO PUBLIC. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET: WE ARE JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE TRADING DAY IN NEW YORK.
>> LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR MIDDAY MOVERS. FIRST, U.S. STOCKS ARE MIXED AND OIL IS CLIMBING AS TRADERS CONTINUE TO GRAPPLE WITH A CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE WITH STRIKES AGAINST IRAN EVEN AS PRESIDENT TRUMP CLAIMS TALKS ARE UNDERWAY TO END THE CONFLICT. ALSO ACCORDING TO A POST BY IRAN'S MILITARY ON X, A CONTAINER SHIP WAS TURNED BACK FOR LACKING PERMISSION TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TURNING TO CORPORATE NEWS. ESTEE LAUDER IS FALLING TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE AFTER THE COMPANY SAID IT IS IN TALKS TO BUY A COMPANY IN A DEAL THAT WOULD CREATE A COSMETICS GIANT WITH ABOUT $20 BILLION IN ANNUAL SALES. JANUS HENDERSON SHARES ARE CLIMBING AFTER GENERAL CATALYST RAISE THE BID TO BUY THE ASSET MANAGER FOR $52 A SHARE IN CASH. IT IS A $43 INCREASE FROM THEIR LAST BIT. JANUS ANDERSON BOARDS HAS BACKED THE DEAL AND URGED SHAREHOLDERS TO APPROVE IT. SHARES OF JEFFRIES ARE HIGHER AFTER A JAPANESE BANK SAID IT HAS NO IMMEDIATE PLAN TO TAKE OVER THE COMPANY. EXECUTIVES SAY THEY ARE CONSCIOUS OF THE VARIOUS REGULATORY OBSTACLES WITH A POTENTIAL TAKEOVER OF JEFFRIES. THOSE ARE YOUR MIDDAY MOVERS.
SCARLET: PARIS-BASED DIGITAL ASSET FIRM LEDGER HAS COMPLETED A $50 MILLION SECONDARY SHARE SALE. WE WANTED TO BRING IN THE CEO PASCAL GAUTHIER AND TALK ABOUT THE PLANS BECAUSE JUST YESTERDAY, YOU OPENED A NEW OFFICE RIGHT HERE IN NEW YORK CITY. CONGRATULATIONS. THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION INTO YOUR LARGEST GLOBAL MARKET. START US OFF BY EXPLAINING WHY YOU NEED TO BE IN NEW YORK CITY RIGHT NOW.
PASCAL: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME TODAY. FIRST, WE OPENED THE OFFICE BUT ALSO ANNOUNCED OUR NEW CFO. IT IS A SIGN OF MATURITY FOR THE COMPANY. WHY NEW YORK? IT IS BECAUSE NEW YORK IS THE FINANCIAL EPICENTER OF TWO MEGATRENDS WHICH IS CRYPTOCURRENCY TREND AND THIS AI TREND, AS A WAY FOR AGENTS TO MOVE VALUE. LEDGER BEING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO TRENDS, WE PROVIDE SECURITY CONTROL FOR THE FUTURE OF FINANCE THAT WE BRING TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. THIS IS WHY WE
TIM: CAME TO NEW YORK.
TIM: YOU MENTIONED JOHN ANDREWS. YOU TOLD OUR COLLEAGUE ON BLOOMBERG NEWS THAT YOU HAVE NO PLANS RIGHT NOW TO GO PUBLIC. YOU COULD BE A PRIVATE COMPANY FOREVER, IS ESSENTIALLY THE JUST OF WHAT YOU SAID. JOHN ANDREWS IS A GUY YOU HIRED TO TAKE YOUR COMPANY PUBLIC. HE TOOK CIRCLE PUBLIC.HE HAS SO MUCH EXPERIENCE IN CAPITAL MARKETS. HE WAS PART OF GOLDMAN'S IPO. IT SEEMS LIKE SOMEONE YOU HIRE IF YOU WILL IPO.
PASCAL: ALWAYS BE RAISING IS MY JOB. LEDGER WILL BE RAISING WHETHER IT IS IPO OR PRIVATE ROUND, WHO KNOWS? RIGHT NOW, WE ARE WELL-FUNDED, PROFIT ABOUT -- PROFITABLE. WE NEED THE BEST TO BE ABLE TO BUILD THE BEST COMPANY. JOHN IS ONE OF THE BEST. HIS APPOINTMENT HAS BEEN ACCLAIMED BY THE NASDAQ YESTERDAY WHICH IS NOT A SMALL THING. I NEED THE BEST ON MY TEAM TO BUILD THE BEST POSSIBLE COMPANY.
TIM: PROBABLY BECAUSE NYSE AND NASDAQ WANT YOUR BUSINESS IF YOU GO PUBLIC. WOULD YOU GO PUBLIC IN THE U.S.?
PASCAL: EVERYONE WANTS LEDGER BUSINESS WHICH IS GREAT. THAT MEANS THE COMPANY IS DOING GREAT. GOING PUBLIC IN THE U.S. IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IF YOU WANT TO GO PUBLIC IS ACCOMPANIED BECAUSE U.S. HAS THE BEST INVESTORS. U.S. BEING OUR NUMBER ONE MARKET, THAT'S IS WHY WE SPONSOR THE SPURS. WE WANT TO DO GREAT HERE. ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME, ALL ROADS LEAD TO NEW YORK WHICH IS THE NEW ROME. WE ARE NOT ANNOUNCING ANY IPO. WE ARE JUST PREPARING THE COMPANY TO BE THE BEST POSSIBLE.
SCARLET: YOU MENTIONED A SPONSORSHIP WITH THE SPURS. WHAT HAS THAT BROUGHT YOU TANGIBLY IN TERMS OF ACTUAL BENEFITS? WHAT IS THE NAME RECOGNITION LIKE NOW AMONG THE GROUP THAT YOU WANT TO REACH BECAUSE OF THE SPONSORSHIP YOU DIDN'T HAVE BEFORE?
PASCAL: GREAT QUESTION. CRYPTO MARKETS ARE CYCLICAL. I HAVE TO MAKE SURE FOR THE TOP OF MIND FOR THE CONSUMER BASE, WHETHER IT IS A CUSTOMER BASE OR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WHETHER THE MARKET IS HIGH OR LOW. THIS VERSE IS A WAY TO HACK YOUR GROWTH IN TERMS OF THE TOP OF MIND. WE HAVE SEEN THAT BRAND RECOGNITION IS AS HIGH WITH THE SPURS WHEN THE MARKET IS LOW AS IT WAS HIGH WHEN THE MARKET WAS HIGH. THIS VERSE HELP US TO BE COUNTERCYCLICAL. WHY? BECAUSE THEY WIN SO MANY GAMES. YOU SEE THE LOGO OF LEDGER EVERYWHERE AND WE HAVE ALIGNED WITH THE SPURS IN TERMS OF OUR VALUES. THAT IS WHY THE PARTNERSHIP IS SO STRONG AND HAS DONE SO MUCH FOR US.
TIM: THE U.S. BEING SUCH AN IMPORTANT MARKET FOR YOU, IT SEEMS LIKE IN THE LAST YEAR IT IS FAIR TO SAY WITH THIS NEW ADMINISTRATION IT HAS BECOME A MUCH MORE FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT FOR COMPANIES THAT ARE CRYPTO COMPANIES AND CRYPTO ADJACENT COMPANIES. WE DO CONSIDER LEAVING FRANCE AND HAD QUARTERING HERE IN THE U.S. UNDER THIS NEW REGIME?
PASCAL: IT IS THROUGH THE NEW REGIME IS VERY FAVORABLE. THE FRENCH REGIME IS ALSO FAVORABLE. WE HAVE NO PLANS FOR LEAVING FRANCE. LEDGER IS AN INTERNATIONAL COMPANY. WE PLAY WITH THE BEST CARDS WE HAVE EVERYWHERE THAT WE ARE. BEING IN FRANCE IS NOT A PROBLEM AT ALL. COMING TO NEW YORK IS A MUST DO FOR US. THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS I GUESS.
SCARLET: YOUR PRODUCT YOU ARE WELL KNOWN FOR IS THIS HARDWARE. YOU UPGRADED THE VERSION OF THIS WALLET LEDGER. I'M CURIOUS WHAT DEMAND LOOKS LIKE FOR THIS PARTICULAR PRODUCT RIGHT NOW AS BITCOIN, AT LEAST AT THE START OF THE WORLD LOOKED LIKE IT WOULD BE A HAVEN, BUT IT'S GIVEN WAY WITH RISKY ASSETS. IT'S BECOME A REAL GO TO PLACE FOR INVESTORS WHO PERHAPS DON'T HAVE THE FAITH IN TRADITIONAL ASSETS. I'M WONDERING WHAT DEMAND LOOKS LIKE FOR YOUR PRODUCT WITH ALL THIS CONFUSION AND THIS VOLATILITY IN THE MARKETPLACE.
PASCAL: THE DEMAND IS STILL STRONG. WE HAD A RECORD YEAR LAST YEAR. THIS YEAR WE HAVE A STRONG START. WE ARE NOT JUST A HARDWARE COMPANY. WE ARE A SOLUTION COMPANY. WE ALSO NOW SELL SOFTWARE. I TOLD YOUR CALL LIKE THAT 50% OF REVENUES NOW COMES FROM SOFTWARE. HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE ARE COMBINED TO PROVIDING SERVICE TO CUSTOMERS, WHETHER IT IS CONSUMER OR ENTERPRISE.
TIM: IT'S IN THE NEW SO I HAVE TO BRING THIS UP. A SUSPECT HAS BEEN ARRESTED IN THE ALLEGED ROLE IN KIDNAPPING OF THE COFOUNDER OF THE COMPANY AND HIS WIFE LAST YEAR. THE STORY CITED DATA FROM THE SECURITY FIRM THAT SAID PHYSICAL ATTACKS FROM THE CRYPTO WERE UP 74% YEAR-OVER-YEAR. ON SCARLET'S QUEST CAN COME OF THE ED OF SELF CUSTODY VERSUS THIRD-PARTY CUSTODY. WHAT LEDGER OFFERS. HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT WHEN IT COMES TO PHYSICAL SAFETY VERSUS STORING ONCE CRYPTO WAS SOMEONE ELSE? WHICH ONE IS SAFER?
PASCAL: LEDGER OFFERS THE ABILITY TO HAVE DIGITAL PRIVATE PROPERTY. IT'S BETTER TO FRAME IT THIS WAY. THE QUESTION IS, WOULD YOU LIKE TO OWN STUFF AND IS IT IMPORTANT THAT YOU CAN OWN YOUR STUFF? PRIVATE PROPERTY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR FREEDOM. IF YOU TAKE AWAY THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRIVATE PROPERTY, YOU TAKE AWAY SOME OF OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS. WITH PRIVATE PROPERTY COMES THE NEED FOR SECURITY AND THE NEED FOR YOU TO WORRY ABOUT SECURITY. THERE IS NO PERFECT IN TERMS OF SECURITY. IT IS NOT BECAUSE YOU TRUST HER ASSET TO SOMEONE ELSE THAT IT WILL NOT BE STOLEN. IT IS NOT BECAUSE YOU KEEP YOUR ASSETS YOURSELF THAT IT'S THE BEST POSSIBLE WAY BEING SAFE. WHATEVER YOU DO, WORRY ABOUT YOUR SECURITY. IF YOUR SECURITY, IT HAS SOME RISK. IF YOU'RE PERFECT TO KEEP SOME, ETC. THE POINT BEING, BEING ABLE TO HOLD YOUR DIGITAL PROPERTY IS ACTUALLY SOMETHING THAT'S VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE. IF YOU HOLD NOTHING, YOU HAVE NO FREEDOM.
SCARLET: PASCAL GAUTHIER, THAT'S A GREAT PLACE TO LEAVE IT. THEY NOW HAVE AN OFFICE RIGHT HERE IN NEW YORK. THANK YOU SO MUCH. COMING UP NEXT, BETTING BIG ON THE BIG DANCE. ANOTHER BREAKING BREAKING WEEK FOR KALSHI DESPITE THE NCAA'S RESISTANCE. WE WILL TALK PREDICTION MARKETS NEXT. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG CRYPTO."
TIM: LET'S GET TO THE ODDS. A LOOK AT THE DEMING GROWTH OF PREDICTION MARKETS. AFTER IT WAS IN A AGAINST KALSHI FOR OPERATING AN ILLEGAL GAMBLING BUSINESS, I SPOKE EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE COFOUNDER. HE VOWED TO FIGHT THE CHARGES.
>> THE ARIZONA ATTORNEY GENERAL DESIGNED TO SUBVERT THE JUDICIAL PROCESS AND WEAPONIZE IT AND FILE THESE CRIMINAL CHARGES, WHICH WE VIEW AS BASELESS. WE SEE THIS AS AN OVER STEP AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO FIGHTING IT IN COURT. THIS IS NOT ABOUT CAPITAL. THE CHARGES THEY FILED ARE NOT ABOUT GAMBLING OR EVEN ABOUT SPORTS. THEY ARE ABOUT PREDICTION MARKETS WRIT LARGE. DOCKING -- ATTACKING THE ENTIRE BUSINESS MODEL. IF SOMETHING LOOKS LIKE GAMBLING , IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN IT'S GAMBLING.
TIM: SOME LAWMAKERS ARE TAKING AIM AT PREDICTION MARKETS. A NEW BILL INTRODUCED IN THE U.S. SENATE SEEKS TO BAN PREDICTION MARKETS FROM ALLOWING TRANSACTIONS THAT MIMIC SPORTS BETTING. IT IS CALLED "THE BRITISH AND MARKETS ARE GAMBLING ACT -- PREDICTION MARKETS ARE GAMBLING ACT." "CASINO LOBBY HARD AT WORK. BANNING JUST PUSHES THIS OPTION WERE NO REGULATION EXISTS. THE BILL IS NOT ABOUT PROTECTING CONSUMERS. IT'S ABOUT PRODUCTIVE MONOPOLIES."
LYDIA HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS STORIES AND JOINS US NOW FROM RDC BUREAU. I'M WONDERING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. IS THIS JUST HEADING FOR THE SUPREME COURT AND THAT IS WHERE WE SEE CLARITY ON THIS FIGHT?
LYDIA: FOR SURE THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY HEADED TO THE SUPREME COURT BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF CASES WE ARE SEEING. IT'S AROUND A DOZEN SO FAR ACROSS SO MANY STATES, AS WELL AS THERE ARE INDIAN TRIBES WHO HAVE BROUGHT LITIGATION AGAINST SOME OF THESE PRODUCTION MARKET PLATFORMS. WE ARE SEEING DISPARATE OR DISAGREED RULING SCHEMATIC COURTS NOW. ALL THOSE FACTORS KIND OF LEAD TO TOWARD JUST THINKING WILL GO TO THE HIGH COURT THAN LATER.
SCARLET: THAT WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR, HOW THIS MOVES FORWARD. YOU HAVE WRITTEN A STORY THIS WEEK ABOUT HELP KALSHI AND POLYMARKET'S FOUNDERS --
TIM: THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER?
SCARLET: IT BOGGLES THE MIND THAT THEY WOULD JOIN FORCES LIKE THIS.
LYDIA: I THINK THAT IS BEEN A LOT OF PEOPLE'S INITIAL REACTION. THIS PARTICULAR FIND YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT IS CALLED FIVE CC CAPITAL AND FOCUS ON PREDICTION MARKET SPACE, LOOKING AT INFRASTRUCTURE AND DATA AGGREGATORS LIKE THESE SECONDARY AND TERTIARY PLAYERS THAT WILL HELP BUILD THIS INDUSTRY. I THINK THAT SPEAKS TO WHY THEY ARE ABLE TO ATTRACT FUNDING FROM THE CEOS OF BOTH POLYMARKET AND KALSHI. THERE'S A LONG LIST OF CRYPTO FOLKS AND PREDICTION MARKET FOLKS WHO HAVE BACKED THIS FUND.
TIM: PLEASE WANT YOUR TAKE ON WHAT THIS IS DOING WHEN IT COMES TO INSIDER TRADING OR ALLEGED INSIDER TRADING. YESTERDAY WE HEARD ANNOUNCEMENTS ABOUT POLYMARKET AND KALSHI TAKING ON INSIDER TRADING AS SCRUTINY GROWS. THE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, DOES IT ACTUALLY PREVENT IT FROM HAPPENING? DOES IT TACKLE THE 80 OR THE CONCERNED ABOUT AN APPEARANCE OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST WITH CERTAIN THINGS? ARE THEY ABLE TO DO THIS?
LYDIA: IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ROBUST THEY ARE KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER PARAMETERS ARE. THEY TOLD US FOR MANY YEARS THEY HAVE TO MEET THE REGULATOR'S REQUIREMENTS FOR DOING THAT, AT LEAST FOR THE REGULATED EXCHANGES. POLYMARKET INTERNATIONAL, WHICH IS NOT REGULATED BY THAT CFTC IS TRY TO TAKE ON THE SAME SORT OF ROBUST METRICS FOR KEEPING PEOPLE OUT OF CONTRACTS THEY MIGHT HAVE INSIDER KNOWLEDGE ON. THAT WAS THE BIGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF ALL THOSE THINGS. ALL THESE COMPANIES AND NOT JUST THOSE TWO, THE PRODUCTION MARKET SPACE IS UNDER INTENSE SCRUTINY NOW IN WASHINGTON AND FROM TRADERS THEMSELVES WHO ARE WORRIED ABOUT PEOPLE BEING ON THERE WITH AN UNFAIR EDGE.
SCARLET: THANK YOU SO MUCH. LYDIA COVERS FINANCIAL REGULATION IN WASHINGTON AND CERTAINLY HAS BEEN WRITING A LOT ABOUT PREDICTION MARKETS, WHICH OF NOTHING ELSE HAVE ATTRACTED THE ATTENTION OF REGULATORS.
TIM: AND MY ATTENTION. THE OVERLAP WITH CRYPTO'S BIG BUT IT SEEMS LIKE WITH ROBINHOOD THEY ARE CONSIDERING THIS NEW ASSET CLASS. EVERYBODY CANNOT GET ENOUGH OF PREDICTION MARKETS.
SCARLET: THEY ARE ADVERTISING EVERY WELL. JOIN A SAME TIME, SAME PLACE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.