Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about BTC first. We will go back over the various economic announcements that have arrived, that are expected to arrive this week, notably the speech by Jerome, which will be highly anticipated. We will of course talk about it crossing its $4200 bar again, and we will look at some altcoins that you asked to analyze. I have XRP, I have XMR, and QNT. So there you go, we will look at these three altcoins. You can also, right now, put in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze in future videos.
So, we have a BTC that has pushed well. Often now on Sundays, we have quite a bit of volatility. That's what I've noticed lately. The pump here happened on a Sunday. Uh, the dump we had, well, we went to make a new ATH, it was also on a Sunday. We often have quite a bit of volatility at the moment on Sundays, from what I see. So it's quite rare, usually on Saturdays and Sundays, since the US markets and global markets are closed. We generally have less volatility, but this is rather interesting. On BTC, we have moved back above $115,000. It would be good to have a close above today. Okay? To confirm this reversal structure that has been put in place, the fact of moving back above this level. It's clearly a level I wanted to break because now we are moving back above the moving averages. We are also in a short and medium-term dynamic because we have moved back above the 4-hour, above the 1-hour, above the 15-minute. So we have a signal that is rather good on BTC. If I look at the weekly close it made, well, it's also rather interesting with three consecutive lower wicks here in the $106,000 to $107,000 zone. This shows, as we saw together, that it is and remains a big important level. At this level, every time we see a wick below, we have had a buying reaction. So typically, we are still within this sideways phase with on daily, yes, bearish excesses, but we have still quickly reintegrated. So in any case, the long-term dynamic is still preserved. We saw that together as long as we held the trend channel, but especially as long as we didn't go below $98,000. We have a BTC that can push and make a new ATH. It's entirely possible. We will have to monitor it. Here, we are at about 10%. It can go very fast on BTC, because if I look here over the last 5 days, well, it has globally made almost 10%. Where there will be a really important signal is Jerome Powell's speech, which will take place in 2 days, Wednesday evening.
Now, regarding the interest rate cut, it is priced in. We will have it, unless there is a big surprise, but if there is a big surprise, it will obviously be catastrophic for the markets because there will be a readjustment for the majority of investors because here, 98%, there is a 98% probability of an interest rate cut. In any case, that's what is priced in. We agree, the market anticipates in advance. It doesn't wait for the news to fall to say "Ah, I'll make a decision based on that." No, it's already priced in. This means that logically, prices have already incorporated the information. Of course, there can be volatility. Why? Because not all prices have incorporated it. There is still 2.2% here from a probability standpoint that estimates there will be no rate cut. However, I clearly expect a rate cut. What we will need to monitor is the tone that Jerome Powell will adopt during his speech. It will be very, very important. Why? Because depending on what is said, it will help reassure investors and reassure, quite simply, the monetary policy that the Fed wants to implement, quite simply, depending on the various rate cuts that are expected. We expect rate cuts by the end of 2025, but in 2026, will there be two? Will there be three? All of this, of course, will depend on the data that comes out, on unemployment, on inflation, and so on. But globally, Powell's speech can have a huge influence. If we have a rather positive speech, we can have a significant pump on cryptocurrencies and of course on the US market, but the crypto market follows the US market automatically because we have seen a positive correlation between the two. And what we will need to monitor, yes, is precisely this speech. But it would not be surprising. In any case, I told you, what I wanted to see was regaining $113,000, it's a big level, but for real confirmation, it was really $115,000. For now, that has been achieved.
Now, of course, ideally, when we have a technical bottom confirmation like this, we always want an invalidation. For me, if I have to talk about invalidation, if we regain and I go back below $112,000 to $113,000, it wouldn't be great. Why? Because we would go back below the moving averages, below the 15-minute, the 4-hour, and potentially the 1-hour, which would clearly be a bearish signal, and we would re-enter this sideways phase that we had for a while. That's the big invalidation. Okay? We can have a bigger one, which is if we break the bottom of the structure. But personally, if we re-enter, generally when we have a range, okay, that we break and re-enter, it's very often to go for the opposite extremity. A bit like what we did here. You see, hop, we have a false breakout and re-entry here, it's to go for the opposite extremity. We do that quite often. See here, false breakout, re-entry, go for the opposite extremity. It's not systematic, but you see here, liquidity grab, opposite extremity. So we will have to monitor these next few days, and especially Powell's speech and what will be said. But here, what BTC is doing is rather encouraging. After all, as I said, and I've always said, we have a weakening of momentum on BTC. Now, can there be a Fibonacci extension and a Bull Market to the Moon recovery? Anything can happen, cryptos have shown us that, and that's why my goal through my videos, my programs, my coaching, the Discord group, and so on, is not to sell you a dream that many can sell you. That is to say, as some might say, Bitcoin at $300,000 will happen, or $1 million by 2026-2027, and others will be hyper bullish and talk about $30,000. My goal is to make you autonomous and especially to make you flexible in your decision-making. That's the most important thing for me. The most important thing is not the person who will be right and who will predict the price of an asset with exceptional accuracy. My goal is to make money while preserving my capital and having invalidations with good risk management. And that, quite simply, is making you flexible, having a good cash-crypto balance. Okay, that's an important point. Having good risk management when you take trades. Having a bias but being able to change that bias very quickly depending on how the market evolves. All of that is my goal through my videos, to make you flexible. I don't want you to be in a cult like some might be, being all perma-bullish. When someone sends me a message saying, "Nico, I'm a bit bearish or bullish right now," and I have an opinion that contradicts theirs, at no point will I tell them, "Ah no, you're wrong, your analysis is not good." No, I respect everyone's analysis, and we can all have a different analysis. What matters is, okay, what led you to that conclusion? Where do you invalidate? What do you plan to do? And so on and so forth. For me, my approach is much more relevant, and it's a much more interesting form of support than trying to put everyone in the same basket by saying everyone is bullish or everyone is bearish.
In any case, if BTC makes a new ATH, we can put Fibonacci extensions here and expect to reach between 118% and 100% extension. So between $141,000 and $150,000. When we break ranges like that to the upside, I always like to put small extensions. You see, between 118% and 100% extension, it's always a level where we can potentially reach a market top or a bottom. It's the same, when we break a range to the downside, hop, I'll invert it. There. Often, we can wick between 158% and 100% extension. And here, we have a perfect example. We have perfectly wicked at the 158% level. It's not systematic, it's not because you draw a Fibonacci that it's 100% certain, but it allows us to have a reference zone. You see, we went a bit further. Okay, but globally, it allows us to have a reference point in case we make a new high, in case it works in both directions. It can be after the realization of a structure. Okay, like this type of M pattern. Hop, we break. You see, we have perfectly between 118% and 100% extension. And similarly, when we push like this, this kind of bottom within this range. Hop! Yes, 118% to 100% extension, we perfectly topped out there. After that, as I say, it doesn't work systematically. Sometimes we can go higher, sometimes we can go lower. Be careful not to always depend on a single tool, to make decisions with 100% certainty that something will happen. It's not because I've put the Fibonacci extension between $141,000 and $150,000 that it's 100% certain that you have to go all-in, that if we make a new ATH, BTC will top out there. No, but in any case, it gives us a representation. We have a guideline, and we globally know what to expect in case we make a new ATH. This allows us to have profit-taking zones, because it's good to use tools and indicators, but then there needs to be action behind it. It's useless to display them. When I draw support levels, resistance levels, or moving averages, it's not for aesthetics, okay? It's really so that there is action on the other side, that I have help, okay? And that it informs my decision-making. Uh, so there you go, in any case, BTC.
Next, we have two major resistance levels to watch: $117,000 and $120,000. If I look here in the short term, for those who want to do intraday trading, we are in a good dynamic since we broke our 15-minute channel. This is something I repeat: when we have an uptrend like this, that's when I like this kind of market context because when we are in a range, it's a bit messy, it's much more complicated. You see this kind of sideways phase that we experienced for about 5-6 days, it's complicated. 15 minutes flat, 1 hour flat, we cross, we cross. There's nothing to do there. Whereas when we start to have a good trend established, when we have pullbacks, 15-minute channel, 3-minute channel, well, there are opportunities to continue the trend. I use pivot points and generally I look for confluence. For example, today, the level that interested me, and still interests me, I don't know if we will reach it, is this level around $113,700. I have good confluence between the 15-minute channel and the daily pivot point. In addition, we are at the level of this previous range at this point. Today, we have topped out precisely on the daily pivot point. We have new weekly pivot points that have been created because each new week, we have new weekly pivot points that we identify together. This simply allows us to determine interesting reference points. We have the main pivot point at $112,000. Then, we have resistance 1 at $117,813, and support 1 at $108,916. So, on the BTC side, just at the order flow level, what we're doing is also good. Why? Because you see, we have returned to the candle we had on October 10th, I'm searching for words. We have almost returned, we have returned, we can say it, we have swallowed, okay, all the decline we experienced. This can also be a control candle, I'm not talking about it, but control candles are simply following a large candle, okay, with or without a wick, okay? It creates a control candle and simply defines a range for us. So this is entirely possible. Okay, and globally, I would take it much more on H4. Okay, for me, my range could be between these two levels. These are control candles like this, they can serve as support or resistance. I'm thinking, for example, of the control candle from May 2021 where we had this big drop and then we simply traded sideways between the lowest and highest point of that candle.
I'm coming back to what I was saying about order flow. We have globally swallowed the decline where we had a big drop in open interest, except that we can clearly see that no new positions have been opened, a few, but globally we haven't had as many positions on derivative contracts as before. This means that the rise we've experienced, this phase, has been much more driven by spot than by perpetual contracts. And in any case, there isn't as much hype right now on perpetual liquidation contracts as there was. And I prefer that because generally, it gives us a healthier movement. We see it on BTC Spot, there is demand being created. There seems to be buyer support. Okay? So, for the moment, BTC is doing rather well as long as we stay in this bullish dynamic. But be careful with volatility, that's something we saw, I mentioned it on Saturday that we could expect volatility this week, especially following Powell's speech.
Now, regarding Ethereum, well, it's doing rather well. We saw that it was in this compression and that a big move was coming. A big move is always proportional to the timeframe. We shouldn't expect a +30% move either. But when I look, we've quickly seen a 7-8% gain in 2 days, from Sunday to Monday. That's a good performance. We broke out of this compression upwards. There, we saw that we were making lower highs and higher lows. We had a break and we went back to test $4250. So a breakout upwards, that's rather good. Anyway, we were talking about Ethereum, and as long as we didn't go below $3700-$3800, it remained bullish in the long term. We also see quite a few lower wicks that show attempts by sellers to break through, always failed by buyers who have shown up. That's already reassuring. And as long as we don't have a close, that's where you need to watch the closes. It's really important. Otherwise, you can be biased and make a bad analysis in my opinion because closes are very, very important. Wicks too, but closes indicate trend reversals and breakouts much more strongly than wicks. And as long as we don't go back below $3800 on Ethereum, I remain bullish. And here, we are globally in a large range. Now, we are testing this resistance at $4250. It would be good to re-enter it to really have confirmation that buyers are present and breaking resistances, because we haven't broken the big ones just before.
However, we can still note this one that was created in the meantime, where yes, we validated this H4 reversal pattern, but we quickly encountered resistance above. So, I would really like to break above $4250, which could propel us to then aim for $4450. Anyway, there are three major levels on Ethereum within this range. The level where we are currently. Okay? Then, $4450-$4500, and then we have up to $4080 here. So, similarly, Powell's speech will have a role on Ethereum. For me, Ethereum, I remind you, has not had a bull market. Perhaps some people don't realize it, but even though I'm already up x2 on my performance, largely because even more than x2, because I have an average purchase price of $100 where I accumulated a lot below. So I'm already realizing a good performance with profit-taking that has already been done. But when I zoom out, we haven't had a bull market. Why? Because we are still in this sideways phase. If I compare it to BTC, it's like when BTC was at this level, okay, close to its ATH. It had performed well, okay, but it hadn't yet broken its ATH and had a new price discovery. Ethereum wicked, but we didn't have a concrete break. I remind you, if Ethereum is to break its ATH, and I'm talking about a break, not a wick, then we can expect, with Fibonacci extensions, to reach between 118% and 100% extension, so between $7300 and $8800, which would be a very good zone where I would clearly have a big TP for the long term, with perhaps a next target at the psychological figure of $10,000. This is only if we make a new ATH; for now, that's not the case. For me, there's a higher probability of making a new ATH than breaking $3007. Why? Because we remain in an uptrend with long-term moving averages oriented upwards. And when we are in an upward dynamic, we are more likely to have a continuation. However, we must remain cautious and not go all-in or take excessive risks. The risk must always be controlled.
If I look at Ethereum in the short term, it's also interesting since we are in this upward dynamic with a $3000 channel acting as support. The 15-minute has moved back above. Here, we have a good localization zone at $4085. We also failed at the monthly pivot point and the daily pivot point. Today, we'll see if we retest. This is a resistance level to watch. And similarly, we have new weekly pivot points that have been created, around $4000, $4015. Then we have $4321 and $3851. So, in case we need to reach them higher or lower, we have very good reference points here. Here, we have a good 1-hour channel zone and weekly pivot point in case of a significant dump. This could be a good zone that would potentially be bought back, to see if we have a buying reaction. But again, I remind you, the goal is to have reference points, to frame a chart, and to know where to intervene. So, on the Ethereum side, if I then look at the US market, well, the US market is doing rather well. That is to say, we are soaring, we are continuing on this path, that is to say, ATH after ATH. I'm using moving averages, and we are still in an upward dynamic. At this level, we are making a new ATH with a good break. You see, this is not a timid break with a re-entry. We talked about it on Friday, what we would need to watch for at the opening on Monday. Well, that's globally what we're doing, it's very positive. We have continuity in the direction of the trend with a good break. Okay. We have a gap that will potentially be filled. It's not certain, but often, gaps like this upwards are filled. It can be by a wick, or we can come back to a close. But in any case, as long as we stay above the ATH with upward-oriented moving averages, that will also be rather good, whether it's the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, which are also continuing in this upward trend, and that's rather favorable for cryptos. I remind you, there is a good relationship, a correlation, between cryptos and the US market. Especially with the arrival of ETFs and especially with the arrival of Trump. So, US indices performing well, well, that's always reassuring.
On the other hand, we have gold, which is underperforming. Okay, which is experiencing a dump. Here, we had this top pattern. We went back to test the 1-hour channel. We are rejected. Here, we are at a support level since we are at the monthly pivot point and the 4-hour channel. So, we can expect a small phase of combat between buyers and sellers here. Anyway, I told you, be careful with gold, we had enormous euphoria. Okay? And here, you see the euphoria we were expecting for BTC, or rather for cryptos, that we haven't specifically seen in gold, it's very easy to spot. Gold, perhaps because it's not the area we monitor the most, because we trade cryptos more actively than gold. Okay? Perhaps, as a result, we are less biased and have a greater perspective. It's possible. But in any case, I haven't seen such euphoria as I saw in gold compared to what I saw in BTC, that I see now in gold, because it's been in the media. I've seen people talk to me about it, even though they have no knowledge of it, when someone in your family asks you, "Ah, why didn't you tell me to buy gold or how do I do it, etc." when they've never bought a stock in their life. These are warning signs, they are warning signs. So for me, we are much too high, and especially from a market sentiment perspective, too many people are bullish. I remind you, when there are only buyers, when the train is full and there are only buyers, and everyone has bought, what's left? Only sellers. Because when you are a buyer, you are a future seller. So I'm not saying we're topping out, okay? We can still have an excess and go up again later and trade sideways, but in any case, we are closer to the top than to the bottom.
Regarding the altcoins you asked to analyze. So, I have an XRP analysis here. XRP, globally, for almost a year now, we've been ranging. In short, don't forget where XRP comes from. Okay, in just a few weeks, we literally pumped. We went from 50 cents to $3. So, we had a very good performance. We went back to retest the 2021 high. We pushed a W structure bottom, and now we've gone back to test this W structure. I remind you, be careful with XRP, it remains a high-cap crypto. Okay, $157 billion market cap. From there, don't expect XRP to simply do another x5 from now on. Okay? Very unlikely. Unless we have a big altcoin season and something crazy happens with cryptos. That's not the most likely scenario. Okay. The biggest part, in my opinion, has been made. Of course, XRP can still do x2, 50%, it's possible, but we are at levels that are too high to position ourselves, and personally, I would wait for a more significant retracement if I wanted to enter a position. Now, for someone doing short to medium term, it would be good to reclaim this level because here, we are clearly at a resistance level. Hop, we see it well, this level is very important. Here, we can draw it at worst like this. Yes. Hop, we have a big zone here that previously served as resistance, resistance, we broke support, we go back below. For me, we would need to reclaim this level to have confirmation that XRP has potentially put in a bottom and is re-entering this sideways phase. We see that there is good selling pressure with lower highs and lows at the same level. So a break downwards, we retest. Nothing alarming. If we start to reject here and make a lower low, yes, that would not be great, and we would have a high chance of retesting the bottom of the range around $1.6 to $1.7. So that's for XRP.
Next, I had XMR. Then, I had QNT, but I'll do Hyper Liquid first because it interests me much more, and I think some people are interested because it has performed well recently. So, Monero, Monero, well, very low volume, a bit less volatility, considering that we are no longer listed on many crypto exchanges. This can still create volatility because, on the contrary, we have order books that are a bit more illiquid and less interest, but in any case, it's a fact, there is much more volume. I remind you, Monero has been delisted from many cryptos. We no longer find it on Binance, on Coinbase, well, everything that is registered under MiCA, I believe, we no longer find it at all. We still remain with a crypto that has performed well in this bull market. If I take it, we are not at -80% either, it remains correct, considering that BTC has dropped -77%. Well, I find that we are at a similar performance in terms of the pump. There, we are at x3, it remains a good performance for a crypto in the anonymity sector. So, there you go, not all anonymity cryptos have performed like this. For me, when you own XMR, it's not specifically for the performance. In any case, that's not what we're looking for in the first place. Now, if I look at how our dynamic is behaving, we remain in an upward flow with long-term moving averages oriented upwards. We clearly see the trend channel acting as support, the 3-day also accompanying just below. Here, we have potentially entered a sideways phase between two levels. We remain in a range pressured by an upward dynamic, more chance of breaking upwards. So I would clearly look to continue the trend on XMR. However, I estimate that we are too high to position ourselves. You see that when we break a sideways phase like this that has lasted for a long time and we retest it. This can be interesting to position ourselves. However, where we are currently, we are much too high. If I draw a Fibonacci from this level to this level, where are we? We are at our short re-accumulation zones between 0.786 and 0.18. It's not interesting to position ourselves here since we are rather in a profit-taking zone or even a zone to take shorts if we have a top structure. So, either you are already positioned and in that case you can take your profits on the way up, short re-accumulation zones, psychological figures, extensions, or you are not positioned and in that case, either you do trend continuation in the short to medium term, okay? Or you wait for a more significant retracement. So, that's for XMR and XRP. Uh, QNT, we'll analyze it tomorrow. I'm going to do Hyper Liquid because it has performed rather well recently. It remains my favorite crypto of the moment, where there is quite a bit of volatility and especially a crypto that is quite pleasant to trade. The entry levels are quite simple. We always have good reactions. Here, we have globally returned to $50. We have this resistance zone that we will also need to watch. And we are moving back. For me, we will have a high chance of making a new ATH and moving back above $59-$60. We are at the last major resistance before the ATH. For me, it remains a bullish crypto, and it's very unlikely that we will go back below $25. We can retest the low, but for me, the bottom has been put in here. I find it hard to see Hyper Liquid, unless there's a major crisis, a major extreme bear market, but otherwise below $10, for me, it's very unlikely given the buyback and how the community supports the project. Okay, for me, it remains a crypto that, when I say this, it's not to tell you to buy Hype to sell you a dream, you are aware of what you are doing. I think that this is not investment advice, but I have talked about it a lot here. Those who followed me, it's thanks to you. Okay. Not thanks to me. You made your own decision. What I want to make you understand is, if you win, it's thanks to you. If you lose, it's because of you. Not thanks to me. Not because of me. Okay? In any case, when I talked about it here, I know that some people were able to enter positions. Okay? Now, do your own research. I am convinced that one day Hyper Liquid will be in the top 5, top 4 of Coin Market Cap. Not now, it's much too early, of course, but in a 3-4 year horizon. Okay? If the project continues to develop, it has its place to reach Cardano, Tron, Dogecoin. Then to compete with BNB and Solana. For me, in any case, it has the capacity, it's too early yet. But in the long term, there is. So, that's my thesis, that's my conviction. I still have good risk management on this. I still take profits. It's not because I think the project can still do, I don't know, x5 or x10 that x5 or x10 over a long horizon will not be achieved in the short term. Maybe not the biggest month if the biggest has been made, we have gone from $10 to $50. If the biggest has been made, we have done x5. I find it hard to see Hyper Liquid do x5. Another x2, x3 at most for this cycle. What I want to make you understand is that even if I have long-term timeframes and significant targets, I take my profits on the way up. Okay? I entered here, I de-risked at this level, I de-risked at this level, I re-entered at this level, I took my profits in this zone, I entered here. I exited at $39. Okay. And I still have good exposure to Hyper Liquid, but globally I have cash that I recovered from Hype, which is ready to be reinvested. What I want to make you understand is that when we have retracement phases, it's always a good opportunity to position yourself. When you have a -42% on a crypto that you appreciate, that you have strong convictions about, it becomes interesting again to position yourself. And so, remember to take your profits on the way up in any case.
On my end, I've said what I wanted to say. Don't hesitate to tell me in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze in future videos. You have all the links to join Discord, to subscribe, and so on and so forth in the description. [Music]