Transcription
So, hello everyone. I hope that you've had a wonderful trading week this far, right?
As you know, you were handed, you know, the bias, you know, the correct way to trade, you know, twice in this week, right? And we talked about when we expected the low of the week to be in for certain asset classes, right? And at times, right, whenever I say the low of the week, right, I'm usually referring to any of the assets within a trade, right? So, at times, right, you will see, for example, the low will be, you know, in for the S&P 500, but it will not be in for the NASDAQ.
So, most times, you know, as long as we trade below the true open, right, and we have sequential SMT occurs, that's, you know, when I really look at the low of the week, or that's when I categorize that as, right? Because why? We use Monday, you know, to just, you know, form a bias, to get an idea of what is to come, because that's what Monday does, that's what the first quarter does, that's what the Asian session does, right? Then that's something that we already know, right? So, as I said, right, Monday and Tuesday, we did not expect much to happen, but we did have, right, and this is important, I believe, we had sequential SMT on, was it Tuesday? I believe, which sent price, you know, a little bit lower. But what was the reason for that to send price below the true open of the week, right? So, so far, the low of the week, right, and I will explain it further, right, is Wednesday, right? As you know, we expected. So, we expected this week to be a up, you know, to close upwards, right? To be a bullish week. That's that was what we expected for the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the Dow, and, you know, so far, that's the way that we, that price has, you know, moved in.
Now, here you can see that we have sequential SMT, right, between this quarter or, you know, this current week and the previous week, right? So, here there is, you know, something to take into consideration, right? We had the low of the week being when Friday. Whenever you have, you know, the low of the week being Friday, right, you can expect, you know, the week after to be explosive, just based on that, right? You know, as long as we have, you know, what we have here, sequential SMT, right? So, this week was extended, right? And I always say, what, whenever you see Q1 extend like this, right? Whenever you see Q1 just, you know, moving like this, right? Just one direction, one direction, what should you expect, right? You should always expect price to, you know, at least pull back within the range. And here, right, and I explained this before, and, you know, that we would see, you know, price go higher, as you guys remember, right? This was our target buy side liquidity for the S&P 500. This was a re-target side liquidity for the NASDAQ, and we were looking at these highs for the Dow, right? Before we go forward, what caused price, you know, to go higher? What's the main reason, you know? Simply sequential SMT, that's the main reason, right there. Other things behind this, of course, you have other mechanics, but this is the main thing that you need to, you know, look for. Is it necessary all the time? No. But if you base your model on this, will you be right more times than not within your analysis, within your trades? Yes, you will be. Right?
If you understand this, if you understand sequential MT, the only thing left for you to master is yourself. Right? How do you master yourself? And I posted something relating to this on Twitter today. You must, you know, you, if you're a person that's emotionally reactive, that, you know, if, for example, someone posts something about you, you get mad. Someone says something to you, you get mad. Someone says something about you, you get mad. You start arguing. You start, you know, you're against the world now. You know, that's a sign that, you know, you need to lay back and, you know, just look into yourself, right? You need to study yourself, right? What is something that I keep doing that I don't like to do? Right? For example, you know, overtrading, that's something. But this is within trading, right? There are things outside of the trading realm that, you know, it's going to have an influence on how you manage your risk. It's going to have an influence on how, you know, how well you follow your trading plan, right? How well you follow your strategy, right? If outside, you're a person that, you know, you can't stop drinking for some reason, and, you know, we've all been there, right? We've all been, you just can't stop, whether it's that you have a problem, personal problem, or, you know, you just do it because you're lonely, you're bored, whatever it might be, you know, don't, no judging, right? You need to kick that to the curb. And why is that? Because the fact that you know you can't stop, and there may be times when you just drink until, you know, you start feeling sick, and then the next morning, you do it again. The other day, you do it again, right? You're hurting yourself, and, you know, above all things, you're losing sleep, which is going to hurt your performance in the marketplace, right? You need to take care of yourself. You need to take care of your mind before you can come and take care of your account, right? That's very important. That's extremely important. You could be the best analyst in the world, but due to the fact that you're not disciplined outside of the shorts, it's going to affect you when you're, you know, sitting down to trade. You have a dirty room, it's going to affect you. You can't trade with a cluttered room. You can't trade or, you know, be functional fully, you know, to the point at which you wish to be. You know, if you, if you're just surrounded by, you know, muck, no, you must fix outside before you can come here in the marketplace and perform as you want to. And that's just to, you know, answer some questions on psychology that I've seen some of you guys answering, asking, right?
So, yes, we saw sequential SMT here between the previous week and this week. The fact that we had price extend led us to believe that price would, you know, fill the voids, you know, which were left by, you know, this extension of price action to the downside. So, here, Monday's price action, remember what we said, right? Oh, you usually, whenever Q1 expands like this, we expect price at least return to it. That's it, fill the gaps within Q1. So, here, first, due to the fact that, and this is, you got to listen right now, don't be confused, due to the fact that we had price extend like this, you know, last week, the entire week, right? We had, we had price extend like this. What do we expect going into this week? Okay, we can expect price to fill these voids. You know, there's your buy side liquidity here. There's voids about the buy side liquidity, right? You can expect that to happen. But before that happens, what do you want to see? You want, you want to see sequential SMT. That's like the easiest thing you can look for, right? Okay. Monday expands. Okay, that's already a sign that we're going to, you know, be going higher, which is something that I said, remember, right? We dropped. Why did we drop? Because of the true open. True open is here, right? Price consolidated here on Tuesday, right? Then drop, then just expanded after the sequential SMT was established. So, here, when we're going to look at, you know, other things that led to the expansion, of course, but this is just the basics, which, you know, you all know. First of all, we had seen SMT around here, and for those of you that must see it here, right? You can see that that wick right there. If you go on the 15-minute time frame, I believe that you'll see a closure, right? Well, even here, you can see a closure, right? On the 4-hour time frame. So, yeah, so between Tuesday and Monday, we had sequential SMT, right? Which is why we saw price do this. If you realize, everything is working, you know, together, right? It's working together. It's a system. It's systematic. It's working together. It happens over and over, right? We can, you know, predict these things with a, you know, high rate of profitability, you know, in regards to our trades, and, you know, proba, a high rate of probability, right? And we do it over and over, right? There's a reason why, you know, I don't go on Twitter and, you know, it just, you see this is it. Anything that you see that's free, you're the product, right? And this is why in Twitter, you'll see people just often, you know, hindsight or ignoring their losses, or they don't, they don't even take a trade in the first place, right? They just go there, post a chart, and then that's it. Or they go there, they record a trade, but they don't talk about the movement, you know, beforehand. They can't do it over and over. Whenever they get it wrong, they blame it on someone else, right? They blame it on someone else. They don't, they do not blame it on themselves. Am I perfect? No. We all know that. There's sometimes when, you know, it's wrong. When it's wrong, it's wrong. Right? Well, there, when it's correct, like today, this week, this entire week with every asset class, we're correct. Right? Bitcoin, forex, futures, stocks. That's how we do it. And this is why it's important to manage your risk, because there will be times when you will make a mistake. But there will be times when you're just spot on, or when it's so correct, you know what's going to happen before you know that. You know the reason why price is going to move. You know where price is going to move. Do you know why price should move there? It just happens over and over, right?
So, yes, here, just to go over again, sequential SMT here, sequential SMT here, sequential SMT here. Price ran below this low, failure swing, failure swing, price went higher and, you know, tagged drawn liquidity here. Now, we're looking at the 1-hour time frame, right? So, there are few things that, you know, you must take into consideration here. Right? The first thing is that, right, we saw price here return to this daily gap but failed to trade into the immediate new week opening gap. The immediate new week opening gap is the, the opening gap of, you know, the current week, basically. But here's when, you know, it gets, you know, better. For here, we failed to trade, you know, into our below the current new week opening gap, right? Here, the same thing happened here. We formed a swing low below it, and we also had higher time frame sequence. This in itself, that's, you know, a cracking correlation. Do you understand? This in itself is extremely, you know, precise, which is why we were looking for this said thing to happen, right? This is why whenever you have the, you know, you have sequential SMT between the monthly cycle, which is the weeks of the month, you know, it's just, you know, one of the best things, you know, you could look for, right? And you, you know, whenever you have, for example, sequence SMT prior to this, you know, happening, like a lower time frame sequence SMT here, which is something that I talked about before, what will happen? The magneto effect. So, we had sequence SMT here at the lows, but we had a lower time frame sequence SMT here. Price is going to draw to that, you know, aggressively. Give it that, you know, you have a news event on these days. There are times when you will see price expand without news, but whenever it happens, it looks like this, right? No news here. What happens? Price expanded a bit, then it just chopped around on Tuesday. Sequential SMT here, okay? Now, this became a draw on liquidity. Future draw liquidity was created here at this high, right? Future draw was created here in this high, right here. What did I say about new? Whenever you see highs form within a new week opening gap? Remember, remember this, this high right here, ready to form within this new week opening gap. And I told you that price will draw to that high aggressively. Why? Because of this. So, it's basically more complex than this, but, you know, it's the easiest way that I can explain it, and it works. You see it here. Highs were formed here. What happened? Sequent, boom. Price dropped here below this low, which is from where? Within this new week opening gap. What happened? Price filled this gap, expanded upwards around this time. What did we say? Well, it was around this time, I believe. What did we say? We're expecting price, you know, to just follow the bias. What was the bias? We were bullish, right? Here, these lows right here, opening gap. I used 10 of them, by the way. Right? If you guys, I use this um indicator. Don't know who this person is, but, you know, very smart individual to be able to, you know, make this. And this is, you know, the settings that I use. Usually, it's just me focusing on the new opening gaps for now, right? There are other, you know, things that, you know, you could focus on, but for now, this is what we're, you know, we're just using, right? So, lows here, price sweeps the lows, which were formed within this new opening gap. This, right? Price action of the Dow Jones is already below the, the current new opening gap. The immediate new opening gap forms a swing low. When we have hype news event, then what happens? Or after we have a hype news event, then what happens? Price expands. Remember what I said before about CPI? Some people say don't trade CPI. Some people are afraid of CPI. What do we say about CPI, right? Whenever you have sequential SMT form, you know, prior to or, you know, after CPI, I use like 30 minutes, you know, just for a safe time frame. 30 minutes before, 30 minutes after, you have the formation of sequential SMT, trade within that direction. How much times have you seen this happen? How much times have you seen sequential SMT happen? Right? You don't even need that accuracy. You don't even need to be right, you know, that many times. All you need to do, you know, you just need literally, you could even have less than 50% accuracy. As long as your head is, you know, in game mode, as long as you're focused, as long as you're following your risk, you'll be okay. You're not trying to hit home runs. You just want to, you know, do what your system tells you to do, right? So, this was correct here again. Right? You can here. I believe we didn't want to see price just run about the dollar index like this. And yes, another thing to, you know, take into consideration here is, remember I said that whenever you see the dollar within consolidation, what happens? You'll see the expansion here, right? Within these assets. Anyways, here we had sequential SMT also here, right? On the lower time frame, the daily cycle, right? We also had sequence, sequential SMT was a daily, not daily cycle. My bad. The weekly. We also had sequential SMT here, right? So, we had sequential SMT here. Then we had it here. Again, this right here is a precision swing point. This down close candle right here. You guys can, you know, um, just zoom in and take this into consideration in your studies, and you'll see. So, sequential SMT, price returning to the range. Sequential SMT, price to return into the range. Sequential SMT. What happened? Price returning to the range, right? A long way to go, but it returning to the range. And that's all you need to see. Just, you know, some form of movement. Even just this, right? If you, even if it were just this alone, okay, you short here, you get out here, you risk, you know, one for three, 1%, you're good. Right? Even if you get out here and price just, price reverses, you don't care. Okay, here, position swing point here. Here, you trade here, price goes here, you come out here. You don't care where it goes afterwards. You just want to see sequential SMT. You just want to see a precision swing point. You just want to see sequential SMT, then a precision swing point. But you can mix this entryway. You can look for a precision swing point, or you can look for just, you know, you can look for a sequential SMT within a precision swing point, right? You, you can mirror it. As long as it's there, there's a chance that price will reverse. Right here, right, we see price expand. Here, we see price expand. Why did price expand like this? Why does the stock market? Why, why does it expand? Okay, whatever occurs within the index futures triad, right? Sequential SMT, price should go higher. What should you expect? You should expect stocks to go higher. It's just common sense, right? If there's bearish sequential SMT, expect a red day or a red week in regards to the stock market. If it's a bullish sequential SMT, expect the opposite.
I hope that you found this useful. I believe that you did. I know that you did, right? You found this very useful. I touched on the points that I wanted to touch on. This was a very good week, right? For me too. Even though, right, right now I don't have all of my monitors right now. So, it's, you know, a bit getting used to. I'm traveling very soon, then I will, you know, have my um new home, and everything is intact, just waiting for me, right? Then, you know, we'll have longer sessions and everything like that, everything that is nice. So, yeah, again, I hope you found this useful. We will speak again Sunday, you know, or Monday, you know, it depends on whenever we have a hangout news event. That being said, have a wonderful.