Transcription
Bitcoin has made a new ATH, reaching the most important level of recent months. We will talk about the trendline of the two previous cycles. We talked about it yesterday, we tagged this level. We will also do a quick update today. We will do an analysis on Ethereum. We will also look a bit at the funding rates. Is the market continuing to be leveraged or not? Just before starting, I remind you that our free algorithm service is still available. You keep 100% of the gains from 21 TP on the LIM algorithms last week. Another very, very good week to access it, it's free. It's the first link in the comments and pinned. All notes concerning my content. It brings you back to this page. You just have to click on this second link here to register on Bitgate, our partner link. Also, it will allow you to participate in the contest. There are up to $10,000 to be won. So it's a small, small bonus for you. And then, you just have to click on this third link right here. Algo trading mentorship, VIP, Altcoin and crypto since you also have access to all this content for free. The algorithms, what I just showed you, but also the mentorship, this complete training of 24 video courses and also the VIP Altcoin in which I will share the best opportunities on altcoins when they arise. All of this is free, everything is explained in this video exclusively for Bitgget members.
So to come here on BTC, I'll quickly show you the trendline that has been reached. We talked about it quite a while ago already, but it has happened. It has been reached. It's this trendline of the two previous cycles that is blocking us. I remind you that we need to break this trendline if we want market acceleration in its entirety. If we also want BTC acceleration, this is the third time we are hitting this trendline in recent months. We hit it in July, in August, and now in October. As long as it's not broken, theoretically, it's really a ceiling for BTC. It can hardly go higher. The maximum that can be offered to us is $1300 for the end of the year, as long as this trendline is not broken. On the other hand, if we break this trendline, we enter what could be called a climax run. This is also what happened in 2021. I'll show you this quickly, but we did exactly the same thing. We connect the two peaks of the last two cycles. So 2013 and 2017. And it gives us more or less the same thing, meaning that here at the time, we had precisely the break of this trendline. So you saw, we broke, pulled back, and then we had a big expansion which accounted for the largest part of our bull run, indeed in 2021. The question is, will history repeat itself or not? In any case, it's important to break this trendline, and it can literally be a top zone for Bitcoin here, meaning stop hunts right here, monthly peak taken, and unfortunately, we still don't break the trendline and we get rejected. So we absolutely must avoid that. We really need to see a Bitcoin that breaks this trendline.
Also on the CME, I was talking about it yesterday, the ATH had not been taken. This is often the case at the beginning of the week on the CME. This is what happened yesterday. We can see that the stops have finally been taken on the CME in adjusted contracts. Again, for those who wonder why I don't have the same chart as you, it's normal, it's because in the bottom right, I checked B AADJ. It simply adjusts the contracts. It averages the contracts and gives you a chart like mine. And we can see that the stops were indeed taken yesterday. And you see that immediately, it's the same chart here. Immediately as soon as the stops were taken, we see that for now, we have a small rejection. So, while we are at a top here, it's not impossible, it's just that technically there is nothing proving that it's a top for now. Even on the hourly, there is no signal. There are just three small red candles. That's not what will form a top, but it remains an important zone to observe. For now, there is no signal. What would be a signal? It could be, for example, the break of the last bullish candle with the formation of a bearish fair value gap. Then, we could start to mark precisely the formation of a peak and the beginning of a new bearish dynamic which will aim for the stops that have not been taken, meaning the low of July, the low of September, right here. Okay? So it will be around $107,000. If we really turn around here, there's a good chance of reaching $107,000. I like to look at these levels. It's a custom indicator based on Bollinger Bands. And here, we can see that, well, we are breaking the upper band on daily. On weekly, we are at the upper band here. So it's an important level. There's the trendline, there's the stop hunt, there's the upper band here on the Bollinger Bands. And we can also note the upper band here on monthly. So here it's on the CME $129,400. Well, I'll give you that on the perpetual market, it will be a bit more precise for us, around $128,700. So really breaking this big zone to break the trendline, break the upper band to really have a bullish resolution and find a Bitcoin that will truly accelerate. I remind you that this is what we need. If Bitcoin doesn't manage to accelerate here, it's dangerous. It can turn around at any moment. I insist on this. These are really super important zones. So now we have to break, we have to go, Bitcoin really needs to make a big breakout, a big green candle here, that we break this zone and then people's interest returns because interest is at its lowest. So we re-engage investors, we have significant inflows into ETFs and so on and so on, we simply relaunch a big bullish leg like we had on gold. You see on gold, for those who follow the price of gold a bit, we had a significant push during the break of this consolidation. This is the kind of movement we would like to see on BTC here at the contact of its trendline. Really a big acceleration a bit like we had at the end of 2024 during Trump's elections.
Now, coming to ETH, ETH has reached several of the levels we had noted. I'll just remove the indicator. Well, there's the upper band, we can talk about it quickly. The upper band is at the stop level here at $4768. We have finally broken the last bearish fair value gap, which is rather a positive signal, and we should theoretically now go for the stops at $4787, $4768 at the contact of the upper band here. So $4787 and then why not try to break ETH's ATH. I remind you that this is the objective on the CME as long as the market hasn't come, well, as long as the market hasn't broken the weekly FVG, this remains the objective here. So to reach the ATH which has not been triggered. I'll just remove the indicator, it will be clearer. There, you see, we stopped just before the ATH. These are often traps before delivering the objective. So this is $4903 on the CME. Roughly, it's to make an ATH on our side on the perpetual market as well and perhaps touch $5000. Now, again, we'll have to be careful about the delivery of the ATH. Do we have a real break or not? You can well imagine that it will depend on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin gets rejected at its ATH, Ethereum risks doing exactly the same thing. That is to say, something like this and going back down. So it's extremely important now for Bitcoin to really break its ATH. It's simple. If Bitcoin really accelerates above and breaks its trendline, there is a very high probability of a bullish wave on the market in its entirety, meaning Ethereum, altcoins. However, if Bitcoin, and for now, it's not succeeding. If Bitcoin gets really rejected, so if we see bearish signals and we will observe that in the briefs at the level of this trendline, there will be chances to start a bearish swing. Many altcoins are already in bearish swings, so they will continue them. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum, well, they will probably return close to the last supports, or even below the supports to go for the stops of this bullish leg. That is to say, all those who have long Ethereum and Bitcoin since early October will be hunted if there are reversals. So probably a return below $107,000 for Bitcoin and probably a return below $3900 for Ethereum. So that's why we need to break these levels, we shouldn't stay here long, we really need to break these zones.
On the funding side for Bitcoin, it's still okay. On the Binance and Bybit side, meaning on the Binance side, we are sometimes below neutrality and sometimes at neutrality. On Bybit, there are still negative fundings here, which is rather strange. And on Hyperliquid, there were small excesses, but we returned to neutrality, so there isn't necessarily an extremely bullish sentiment. Now, again, it's not because fundings are neutral or negative that the price must absolutely go up. What you need to understand is that there needs to be demand, there need to be buyers on the spot market to drive prices up. Here, sellers are out. We can see that the stops above the ATH have been taken. And therefore, if there are no buyers on the spot market despite low fundings, the market can very well reverse. So that's why we really want a break now. It must accelerate now. Often the end of the year, well, often it's not reliable enough historically, but the end of the year can be conducive to a bullish push. It's now that the market must do it, that we must finish Q4. Well, we must finish this Q4 in style, meaning really accelerating.
Well, on the index side, there's a chance that Q4 could be potentially, not to say corrective, but with small turbulences according to the January barometer. We saw that together. I don't know, I'll resume the macro reviews from Thursday, we can look at that. In any case, from my side, as long as the VIX hasn't taken its lows, I still think there's room for the indices. So that's not the case yet. So the indices still have a little room. We'll see if Bitcoin will benefit from it. Because here, I'm telling you, the indices, the VIX, sorry, is approaching key levels. The dollar is really, really starting to show clear bottoming signs with this break, respecting its FVG, it can start to signal that we have a dollar that is turning around. So we are starting to have signals of extreme caution. We really need to be careful here when the VIX is not far from its lows, the dollar is not far from finding a bottom. Well, maybe even the bottom is really in. So now we need to be extremely careful. That's why there's a dollar that's waking up a bit. The VIX is not far from its objectives. Bitcoin is on a major trendline. That's why Bitcoin must break now. If Bitcoin doesn't manage to break, it could be very, very dangerous for the entire crypto market. So, well, that's why we need to watch this trendline. We need to act in terms of risk if necessary. Meaning that if there are reversal signals, well, we will have to take them seriously because behind that, it could really be the end of this bullish swing. I'm not talking about the end of a bull run again, but the end of the bullish swing with retracements like 100 or 107,000, maybe even 105,000, these remain realistic objectives. If we look at liquidations for example, here we see that we still have a bit of liquidation up to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands after $128,000, but after that we see that we don't have much left. Well, there's a cluster here around 135. That's if we really break the trendline, and we see quite quickly that if we don't break the trendline, there are a lot of liquidations to the south, it's below the last support. So that's why I insist on the fact that we absolutely must break this trendline.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you in the description box, you have a lot of free content offered. Don't hesitate to check all of that out. Also, for those who want to join my school, it's on this first link in the comments and pinned. It brings you to this page. You just have to click here to join my trading school. It's the only paid subscription I offer because it's daily support. Every day from Monday to Friday. We analyze the markets together. I answer your questions. We find opportunities together. I analyze your altcoins. I tell you about my personal exposure on the market, what interests me, altcoins that might interest me. Also, you have access to the school's training which is exclusive to the school. It can't be found anywhere else. 19 hours of video courses, 8 modules that train you from A to Z. The prices are only €49 per month, it's commitment-free. You also have the 3 and 12-month offers which are proposed to you and which are even cheaper. And you also have here a small description of what you will find in the school and also testimonials from members to give you an idea. In any case, you are welcome. I'll stop here. See you tomorrow.