Transcription
Iran spent billions of dollars building underground cities to store missiles. And those bunker busters you're seeing on your screen, well, those billions of dollars are now going up in flames. That's why the Iranian president is actually warning of an economic collapse. During a war, the regime knows they're fighting for their survival. This only means one thing. The situation is worse than anyone can imagine. Maybe they should have spent that money somewhere else. But they didn't. And now the regime is facing one of the biggest problems it has ever faced.
Here's the report. It comes directly from Iran's president who's actually warning of an economic collapse to the IRGC commanders who are running this war. The situation is getting so dire that it's creating tensions between the president of the regime and the IRGC chief who's basically making sure that Iran can head back. The president is saying that the IRGC's approach is not working out. He's against Iran attacking other Gulf countries and he's against Iran escalating this war.
Now, you may remember something. Just one week into this war on March 7th, the president himself actually apologized to Gulf nations for all the attacks that Iran was carrying out. "I need to apologize on behalf of myself to our neighboring countries that have come under attack by Iran. Because of the vicious assault on us, we lost our Supreme Leader, our compatriots and loved ones. Our armed forces, when their commanders were gone, conducted the operations that were necessary and protected our country with strength. We do not intend to conduct an assault on neighboring countries. And like I've said before, they are our brothers. We have to be handinhand with our brothers in peace." And the interim council approved a decision yesterday. That decision was relayed to our forces that they should no longer attack neighboring countries unless there is an attack on Iran staged on their soil.
Now we have a better understanding as to why the president was doing that. He knew what was coming for the Iranian economy and he was trying to get ahead of it. But the IRGC responded quickly to his apology. They actually forced him to retract the statement. And then we had Ali Razani put out his own message basically saying that hey Iran is not sorry about anything. The regime is fighting for its life and it will keep hitting anything that's in its way.
Now as you guys know this war is moving very fast. So a lot of us including myself did not really think much about why did the Iranian president apologize and why was he forced to so quickly walk it back because so many things were happening. We didn't have time to think about this a lot more. Well, now we know the troubles were getting worse by the day and that's why he was really making sure that he figures out a way to deescalate this war and protect the Iranian economy from collapsing.
If we just look at the number, we realize why Iran is struggling so bad. Unfortunately, the latest figures we have about the Iranian economy come from 2024. So, it's not the most recent, but it is the most recent that we have available. Back then, roughly 25% of Iran's GDP was oil exports. That oil is not flowing anymore because of the IRGC's on blockade. And then we had another 5% of Iranian economy that was dependent on exports too. This could be goods, steel, whatever you want to think of. I can't really find the details but we know 5% was exports too that has also disappeared because it's not just tankers that are not going through the state of vermuse even container ships are not going in and out and that means the economy doesn't have this income that it depended on and again these figures are from 2024 we know things got even worse in 2025 inflation was at 40% last year there was zero economic growth and youth employment was even worse than China is exactly why there were protests happening in December of 2025. The economy was struggling and the regime was focused on spending billions to build missile cities.
Now, in 2024, something else happened that we didn't really talk about and that was that this guy, President Pescan was elected in the middle of the year. Now, most of the problems that Iran is facing now was something that he inherited when he was elected. And that's why his platform for campaigning during the elections was to reduce government waste, aka maybe slow down on those underground military cities that cost so much. And his second platform was basically to normalize relationships with the West. He wanted to figure out a way to get sanctions relief for Iran's economy and hopefully boost the GDP growth so people's lives improve. Iranians resonated with this plan and that's why he was elected.
But as you guys know, there is a facade of democracy in Iran. That's why they have elections. But in reality, the main power is with the dictator supreme leader. So guess what? Even though the Iranian people elected this guy, the supreme leader did not let him pursue his most important policy. Hammin did not trust the west. So normalization was just off the table. That means no sanctions relief for Iranian economy and no economic boost. And then the economy collapsed in December and people were out on the streets by the millions. At that time the Iranian president was actually out blaming the government. Meaning he was blaming himself and people around him for the reason the economy is so bad. And he was saying that the government needs to do a better job to serve the people it's supposed to serve.
Now we all know what happened next. The Iranian regime was too afraid to lose power. So it massacred tens of thousands of Iranian protesters just to make sure they don't lose their grip on power. This was just in January. But since then situation has gotten even worse. Since this war started roughly a month ago, food prices in Iran have gone up 50% in just last 30 days or so. In fact, some food staples are getting price hiked every single hour. That's an unheard of rate.
Now of course war is playing a big role in you know causing all this but the Iranian regime is not helping the situation at all. They have shut down the internet. 90 plus million Iranians don't have a way to access internet because the Iranian regime considers it a security risk and without internet the businesses are not able to operate even if they wanted to. Factories cannot order stuff they need. So they are facing shortages of raw material. if they are able to order something, they can't really get it quickly because the company that's supposed to give it to them doesn't have internet either. And the company that's supposed to ship the product doesn't have internet either. And of course, the internet blackout is also affecting other aspects of people's lives, too.
AP Associated Press just interviewed 10 Iranians to just figure out how they are dealing with everything that's going on with the war and the internet blackout. And one doctor says that he's so backed up without internet that he's not able to treat his patients properly. And in a time like this, the number of patients have gone up even more than usual. He can't order people the prescription they need. He can't check their health history. So he can't figure out what medicine they were taking, what doses they were taking it in. And all this is just creating more chaos in a time when doctor specialists cannot afford chaos. And of course without internet people can't order anything online. So businesses that operate mostly online or even in part online they are suffering. They're not getting any orders. But on top of that people are not able to use their digital payment apps or they're not able to use their credit cards. So they are using cash heavier and heavier or I guess they're using cash more and more. But since the inflation is so high 50% for food just in last month the cash is losing its value very quickly.
Now, of course, this was happening. This was something that was happening even before the war. But during the war, the things have gotten even worse. And that's why before the war, Iran launched a 5 million realal node. So, people can use this to buy whatever they need. 5 million realale in just one singular node. Guess what? Just 2 days ago, they had to increase the valuation or increase the denomination of this node. Now, they have launched a 10 million realale node just to deal with the inflation that's just growing all throughout the country.
Now, this is something we actually covered on this channel, so take a look at our coverage. "Iran is printing money like there's no tomorrow. Because, well, for many people, tomorrow is looking very uncertain. With missiles hitting banks and the national airspace locked down, Iranians are terrified their credit cards and phone apps will go dead at any moment. And that fear is triggering a massive run on cold, hard cash, which is in short supply. The government's answer to this panic is their boldest move yet. a brand new 10 million realal bank note, the largest they've ever printed. This bright pink bill is only worth about seven bucks. As these bills hit the streets, lines at banks stretched for blocks. Some people are waiting in line for hours only to walk away with 30 million realals. It's not much, but it'll keep them going for a few days if the machines stop working. Iranians have a good reason to worry. Because of the chaos, imports are getting expensive. Food prices have more than doubled, and inflation is sitting at 47%. People remember how fast the system fell apart last time, so they aren't taking any chances. Even the design of the bill tells a story of a struggling economy. The central bank printed the last four zeros super faint and made the 1,00 stand out. A quiet signal that they eventually plan to chop those zeros off the currency for good."
Now let's say if an economic collapse is coming, Iran actually has a very easy solution to make things better for the economy and of course for normal Iranians and that is to just open up the straight of Hermoose. Now as we'll talk about very soon, this does create other problems for the military. But despite that, it seems Iran is actually opening up the straits slowly.
Before I get into this report, just a quick reminder to hit the like and subscribe button down below. It truly does help us out in the algorithm. But now take a look at this. Two days ago, Pakistani foreign minister put out a public statement saying that Iran has agreed to let 20 Pakistani flagged vessels go out of the straight of Hermoose. Now, there are still a lot of details we don't know about as it whose cargo is on the ship, who's getting paid for these vessels that are going out. But one has to assume that Iran is getting something and that's why they agreed to let these go up. You can take this multiple different way. This could be because the economy really desperately needs this and that's why the IGC is loosening the blockade a little bit. Or it could be like President Trump claimed Iran gave these vessels as a gift to the United States. Now, I'm not exactly sure how true that is, but we'll find out in the coming days once we see where these vessels are actually going. If they come to the United States, maybe there is something to that gift idea. But as of right now, what's more likely is that Iran is slowly letting some ships and tankers go out, come in so they can get some money flowing into the economy. In fact, just yesterday, we also got a report of two Chinese ships that were allowed to go through the straight of Hermoose. Now, since these are Chinese ships, it's very easy to assume or it's very likely that they're heading to China and they are probably carrying Iranian goods or maybe even Iranian oil. This is actually a very strong proof that the Iranian economy desperately needs this and that's why they are letting ships and tankers come in and out.
Now, I do have something that's a bit unconfirmed. So, I want to give you guys that warning just up front. But apparently, there is a foreign journalist who was allowed to go into Iran. And then from what I can tell, the Iranian military actually took him through the straight of Hermoose so he can report from the waterway. And he claims that he saw 90 tankers going in and out of Iraq. Take a listen to yourself.
"We're now heading back uh to shore. We've actually been given more time out here than we had anticipated. We were told 20 minutes. We've been out here for about uh an hour thankfully. Uh we've seen a fair bit at least as much as we can uh on this vessel. I just did a quick and dirty count of the number of uh oil tankers and cargo ships out here. Uh these are just ones that are visible to my naked to the naked eye and I counted 90 of them. uh and you know some are pointed northward, others are pointed southward. So there appears to be uh quite a bit of two-way traffic uh you know close to the Iranian shore. In any case uh assuming that we don't get blown out of the water between here and the port uh this will be my report to you uh from the straight of Hormuz on March 29th, 2026."
Now a lot of people who are pro- Iran are trying to frame this as oh look Iran now has complete control over the state of Hermoose and anyone who's under Iranian protection can come in and out but anyone who is you know related to the United States cannot come in and out but that's where the people are forgetting what the leverage was with the straight of Hermoose and what was the leverage that the IRGC was trying to use you see these people are forgetting that the US was never directly dependent on the straight anyways on a best day maybe one or two tankers that went through the straight of Hermoose actually came to the United States. In fact, if we just add up all the numbers from 2025, only 1% of the oil from the straight of Hermoose actually went to America. So from US point of view, US was never actually worried about American ships being able to go in and out. But from an Iranian point of view, their leverage was not stopping US ships. Their leverage was stopping every single ship. You see, only leverage that Iran has is higher oil prices. Once prices get to a point where it becomes problematic for countries around the world, Iran was hoping that these countries, countries in Asia, countries in the Gulf, countries in Europe would put pressure on the United States to stop this war. And of course, we cannot forget oil prices have a big impact in the domestic politics of US. Doesn't matter if it's Democrat or Republican in the White House. No one likes high oil prices. So Iran was truly hoping that if they can keep oil prices high enough for long enough, they can put pressure in the United States and maybe get a ceasefire where they get a lot of concessions.
But you see, if Iran is actually letting tankers come in and out, it's letting the flow of oil go on, the prices will come down. It doesn't matter if that tanker is going to China, going to Asia or going to Europe. More oil in the market, the prices come down. Basic supply and demand. And that means their leverage actually gets weaker. That means the only reason Iran is letting tankers go in and out to Pakistan or to China is because the economy so desperately needs it that they're willing to lose their only bargaining chip maybe temporarily to make sure the economy has the money to survive. I guess this comes down to the famous Napoleon quote. You need three things to win a war. Money, money, money. And guess what? It looks like Iran is running out of it.