Transcription
Okay, Bitcoin is at $107,700 and we're going to do a global market update. I'm going to detail in this video why, in my opinion, the bottom hasn't been reached and why, in my opinion, we're going lower. So, I'll explain, I've been in a relatively bearish position for a few weeks, since here for example, where I indicated in the previous three videos. So there have been others, but here, specifically on October 21st, I explained on this rebound, on this rebound at $113,000, that it was necessary to take profits, that we were in a phase where it was necessary to take profits, that we had weak signals indicating a potential reversal in the behavior of large investors, and that in that case, it was necessary to take profits and secure one's position to simply modulate the risk management of one's portfolio, to avoid overexposure, and to simply have a larger portion of stablecoins in one's portfolio. So if you were invested 100% in crypto here, well, you would have potentially sold 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 80% of your portfolio to keep a portion of stablecoins in your portfolios to be able to buy back in case of a drop. That's what happened. So we had a drop. Then, we had a rebound, certainly, but you see that each time these rebounds are rejected. I explained here that we had very important signals of a potential reversal. I confirmed that with the opinion of the main US Crypto influencers who, just before the FOMC, explained that it was going to be super bullish, that crypto was going to go "to the moon," etc. Well, as always, the main crypto influencers are wrong, and so a bearish movement followed. So the problem is that the bearish movement that followed, right here, it amplified strongly on altcoins, as regularly. But the problem is that here, for example, in phases where we can have rebounds, like here we had a rebound, well, the problem is that on altcoins, we don't have rebounds. Most of the time, in fact, we don't have rebounds. And if we look at the curve of the Oers, for example, so OERS, it's a synthetic curve that allows us to have the curve of altcoins from top 1 to top 125. So, globally, these are the small cryptocurrencies. Okay? And these small cryptocurrencies, you see that on rebounds, they have a rather weak behavior. And in fact, if we take altcoins individually, I'll take ADA for example. You see that here, since the top which was at $116,000, here we were at $116,000 for Bitcoin. You see that the drop is drastic. Here, we broke the supports that we had for some time. Okay? And so there is really a moment of panic, a moment of panic on altcoins. We see it, we see it particularly on the fundings, etc. So I don't know if I have them. Yes, I have them here. So we have the heatmap of fundings which shows that here we are in the green, we are even in the purple. This means that here, we have major phases of fear, somewhat similar to what we could have had here during the phase here in April, during the fear phase related to Donald Trump's tariffs. So here, we are really in a particular moment of potential capitulation, and I think, however, that capitulation has not been reached for the simple reason that we still have buying behaviors, particularly on derivatives contracts, for example. We'll look at it together, but you see here on derivatives contracts, I'll show them to you right here. There, right there. So you see that here we have a behavior that is quite symptomatic, quite symptomatic of the famous "buy the dip." You see here fundings increasing. Every time we reach such low levels, fundings increase. So this means that the financing rates are higher than they were before. And in fact, this means that on derivatives contracts, a majority of people are entering and are entering in a bullish, positive way. Here, many people are clicking "buy." You can see it right here. Here you have the aggregated future bid and ask delta. So here, this means we have the delta of the number of positions opened by buyers versus the number of positions opened by sellers. And so here, you see that right here, well, we are in the green. This means that here people are clicking buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. So the problem is that they are buying on derivatives contracts at times when, precisely, the crowd is always wrong. And since the crowd, sorry, since the crowd is always wrong, well, we are in situations where a reversal is very probable. And here, indeed, in the short term, we can have a small rebound, but I don't think we are ready for a bottom at these levels. And the problem, the major problem, is that these levels constitute the main support level. When we look at it right here, we had a support level that was hit here, here, here, here. You really have to visualize this as a wall. Okay? When you have a wall and you hit it repeatedly with a sledgehammer, well, at some point the wall will break. And when the wall breaks, well, it breaks deeply because in fact, all the buyers who are positioning themselves here, when the wall breaks and when there is a drop, well, the problem is that all these people will find themselves in a panic. They will find themselves in a panic. Some, the weak hands, will sell quite quickly, so they will close their positions, which means they will sell, so they will cause an even deeper drop, and this will create a domino effect, a cascade effect that will cause more and more drops. So if I've shown you my position a bit here and I've gone back a bit on my positions over the last few weeks, it's not to brag about having had the right strategy and having anticipated the market. It's simply to explain that you need to be very cautious on YouTube, very cautious on the markets because the majority of influencers and YouTubers have, well, it's a defensible strategy, but rather "buy and hold" strategies. So they will simply buy and do DCA, and wait for the price to be higher in the future than it is now. Now, it's a defensible strategy, but it's not active management, okay? It's passive management. So, in fact, for me, it's very contradictory because if you are on YouTube and you are watching and if you are watching analyses of Bitcoin and cryptos, it's because you want to know how to position yourself in the short or medium term. Okay? When I say short term, I'm not talking about scalping or intraday trading, etc. We're not talking about day trading, opening positions in the morning and closing them in the evening. What we're talking about is protecting your capital during drops of -5%, -10%, -20% on altcoins. For my part, when I have -10% on altcoins, it doesn't bother me much. However, I seek to protect my capital when I have potential drops of around -15%, -20%, -30% on altcoins. And the problem is that this is exactly what is happening now. Okay? Currently, a drop like this, like we had between 116 and 107,800, is -7% on altcoins and on Bitcoin, sorry. And it's around -15% to -20% on many altcoins. And the problem is that if we break this level, as seems most probable, I remind you that we have hit this support a number of times, so the probability of it breaking is increasing each time. Now, recently, we had a rebound, certainly, but until when? Okay? Until when? Knowing that currently, well, we saw it on derivatives contracts, many people are starting to enter, and the problem is that this increases the probability of a drop. So we're going to look a bit at what's happening at the macroeconomic level, at the on-chain analysis level, etc., throughout this video, and I'll explain my position and what, in my opinion, explains that we're going to have a drop. So already, at the traditional finance level, at the ETF inflow level, well, the problem is that we have outflows. So traditional finance, since the 29th, since this famous rebound just before the FOMC period, since the FOMC, traditional finance has been leaving the market. The problem is that, well, this is a bit what drove the fact that we had a small buying pressure for some time. If I show you this via histograms here. So here we are on Glass Node, and I'll show you right here. Well, you see right here, we had quite a bit of buying, and the problem is that since then, we've had a lot of outflows, a lot of capital outflows. And so this is a real problem because we no longer have buying pressure from traditional finance. If we now look at the whales level, so here we'll look at the different cohorts. So I'll remove the small cohorts because you see that here they don't do much. They are very small cohorts with very little volume. We have buying here. We continue to have buying on portfolios weighing 100 and 1000 bitcoins. The problem is that this buying is starting to decrease. So that's already a problem, and moreover, these are cohorts of people who are usually poorly positioned. You see that here they bought the top, and then they sold, and they completely sold the bottom. Okay? So is this what will happen again? It's probable. If we look at the past, they bought the top here, they bought the top here, they bought the top here, the top, the top. Okay? So they are systematically poorly positioned. So we don't really want to position ourselves the same way they do. Conversely, here we have this type of cohort. Okay, here in orange, which sold the top and bought the bottoms. Okay? In recent phases, you see that here they bought the bottom, here as well. And on the other hand, here, they sold the top. And there, what are they doing? They are selling. So this is precisely what I explained in my previous videos and what led me to be very cautious because I saw a change in behavior. If here we could have had sufficient buying pressure to lead to an increase in price levels, here on dolphins and here on traditional finance with a lot of buying. The problem is that precisely now we have a drop. We have a global drop in all inflows that could come from whales. So, to summarize, we have a drop from traditional finance, and we have a drop from whales. Whales are driving a bearish movement. So there could be movements from retail. So we'll look at that here at the retail level. And the problem is that here, so we are on the spot. We are on the spot with the average positions that are open, and the problem is that here we have no more orders. Okay? We have small orders starting to arrive, and this was a bit of good news that I wanted to share with you, which is that well, we must, we must still reason ourselves, even if there is a potential drop coming. This does not mean that we will have a massive crash of all cryptos for months and years to come. It's simply a correction in an uptrend. We are in an uptrend. And if we zoom out a bit and look, let's look at a longer term. Okay, on the weekly, for example. Here, you see that well, we have an uptrend with rising lows and highs, and we are simply forming a top, but we can very well do this and go back to buying. Now, indeed, this will hurt everyone who hasn't de-risked their portfolio, but this is simply a healthy movement. Okay, like we could have had here, like we could have had here or here. For now, the dynamic is not broken, and so the probability of having a low that is actually an interesting buying zone to reposition before an upward movement is significant. So I still think that the macroeconomy and precisely the long-term indicators indicate that we potentially have very bullish levels. This is simply the fact that rate cuts are still planned. Now, indeed, the FOMC has cast doubt on the December 10th meeting. So on December 10th, will we have a rate cut? Currently, the market thinks we have a 2/3 chance of a rate cut and a 1/3 chance of staying at current rates. So, we'll see what happens. But for now, there's a higher probability of a rate cut. In any case, we'll have to look at that because at the macroeconomic level, we do have interesting news, but we still have a slight doubt related to the return of inflation. So, we have inflation rising to 2.7% in the United States. Now, well, you see that this could potentially hinder a potential rate cut. The positive aspect, however, is that quantitative tightening will stop on December 1st. I remind you that quantitative tightening is the act of withdrawing liquidity from the markets. Well, it's simply the reverse printing press. The printing press is precisely about printing money and injecting it into the global economy. This is what happened during this entire bull run phase in 2020-2021. Conversely, since 2022, and precisely between the bear market, the consolidation phase, and the bull market we've experienced, well, during this entire phase, we had a quantitative tightening phase where we had a reverse printing press, meaning they were basically burning money. Well, it's a bit schematic, but you get the idea. So here, we are rather well oriented, so we can potentially have a nice rebound. In any case, here, we will need new interest, and the interest of retail in particular. I spoke about it in my video on the different phases of the cycle, and I still think that this last phase of the cycle will arrive, that it hasn't arrived, that we will need the arrival of retail. And for that, we look at weak signals like here on Google Trends. Is the term "crypto" being searched on Google? You see that currently, not at all. So we don't have new people typing "crypto" on Google to get interested, etc. We also see it here in terms of views by YouTube influencers. So I thank you for being more and more numerous on the channel and for bringing us so much support and kind comments on the channel and on the different videos. Thank you. In any case, the rest of the influencers are getting very few views. We have a rather bearish dynamic, lately. If we look at the last three months, you see that here, well, the dynamic is quite bearish. There are few videos being watched, few influencers gaining new subscribers, etc. So it's difficult, it's difficult for newcomers. There are no newcomers, and you know that it's generally in these phases that interesting opportunities to reposition will start to emerge. So for now, we are on the sidelines, we are watching what's happening, we are protecting our capital, but we are very attentive to what the market will do. In any case, at the Fear and Greed index level, we are at 42%. So there's a slight return to neutrality. Fear is starting to fade a bit. Naturally, we had a rebound, but I don't have trouble thinking that with precisely here the break of these levels, so we simply came to do a pullback. Here, we broke the trendline right there. Hop, we broke it. We came back to do a pullback on these levels. We came back to work the trendline, and hop, we break it downwards. Well, that was not a good sign. We suspected it. We on the private investment group saw this level. Here we took the opportunity to take profits and exit the market. So obviously, on our side in the investment circle, the added value we can bring is to have precisely this short and medium-term indication to know what we are doing on the market to protect our capital. I send my positions, my exits, etc., every time. When I enter, when I exit, when I take profits, when I think it's time to re-enter. Now, on our side, we are already making our shopping list, to buy in case of a correction phase, what to buy, at what level, etc. So all of this is obviously shared in our investment circle. You have all the options to join us via the links in the description. I remind you that we are a company registered in France. Okay? So you have all the guarantees when you subscribe to our offer. You are in control of your subscription. You can cancel it at any time. You receive a training course that is offered to you from the moment you subscribe to the subscription. In any case, don't hesitate to join us if you wish. We're going to move on to slightly more premium indicators. This is also what makes Medusa strong, which is to have precisely these indicators that are usually paid for, and quite expensive, several hundred euros per month, and which allow us to analyze the market with much more precision. Now, if we look here on the medium term, you see that we have a big fight zone taking place. We have big red lines forming, and this, again, is a bad sign. It's a bad sign. So this is what we started looking at a few weeks ago, which made us doubt. And now, the problem is that we see that we have a lot of sales. We have a lot of sales above the price. And so the red lines that are forming and intensifying show that whales, or at least large portfolios, are exiting, are increasing their bearish pressure. And this is a bad sign. It's a bad sign because this is what we could have had, for example, right here. Hop, I'll show you right there. We could have had this in the past, right here in February. It took us 15 days. 15 days between precisely the start here on February 9th and the end here on February 22nd. We had a large distribution zone that took place just before our big bearish phase. And here you see that we are recreating something similar. Now, obviously, I'm targeting a return to this zone. This zone that served as major buying zones. Okay? If we look here, it was here. So precisely $93,000 and $96,000, there was a very, very large buying zone from the big players. So very large portfolios that had sold heavily here. Okay? And that had heavily positioned themselves, well, they had heavily, heavily bought back. We see it precisely here on Glass, they had bought back heavily. And so here, seeing the price return to the levels of $95, $92, $93,000 is entirely probable. And we could, if we find levels like those we had in the past, well, these are levels I will monitor to potentially have a very, very good entry level. Now, obviously, this can be scary because it's a relatively significant drop. If here, hop, we look, hop, I'll measure it between the current point and the zone, we are at -12% to -13% compared to the current level. -13% potentially means -25% to -30% on altcoins that have already lost -15%, so that would be -50% since mid-October. But precisely for those who have liquidity and for those who have protected their capital, repositioning is very interesting. Now, obviously, for those who haven't sold, for those who are currently asking themselves, "What do I do?" because I didn't sell higher, I didn't take profits, etc., so what do I do? Well, you still need to, if you're not selling 100% of your portfolio, you still need to prepare yourself because the peculiarity is that, once again, we are at a major support level that has been worked many times and could be broken. And if it's broken, the problem is that we will have a bearish acceleration, and then it will be too late to sell. Okay? Once we break this level, it will be too late to sell because, well, we will have an acceleration on the majority of altcoins. Okay? If I look at my screener here, look, we have all the altcoins that are between -16%, -15%, -10%. So obviously, you need to be very, very cautious because here, we could have a much more significant acceleration on Bitcoin, but also consequently on altcoins. Here, at the accumulation trend score level. Well, you see here, since the rebound, we had an accumulation of 1. Okay, so here, during this bearish phase, we had a slightly more significant accumulation, and since the rebound, well, you see that it's selling, it's selling strongly. Here we went from 1 to 0.97, to 0.88, then to 0.76. So potentially here, we need to be vigilant because we could have a much more powerful bearish movement than this. At the level of the supply held by long-term holders, well, you see that we are in a distribution phase that has been going on for quite some time now and is intensifying, and is intensifying. Simply here, well, whales are selling, ETFs are also selling, so we have long-term holders divesting their crypto. So here, I told you, this is also something I was monitoring. Here, we had crossed below the level. So here, I'll remove the long-term holders. Here, at the short-term holders level, you see that we had broken the level, the red line here, which corresponded to the average purchase price of short-term holders. Well, you see that in the past, when we broke these levels, it was a bad sign. It happened here. Okay? If I show you here, we broke this level, we did a pullback, and then it took us quite some time, in fact, 2 months, to regain these levels. To find here an accumulation phase, the famous phase I'm watching, the one that took place between $92,000 and $96,000, which I'm currently watching to potentially reload. You see that it also happened here during the post-halving phase, which also lasted 2 months. Break, pullback, we work this zone again, and then once we manage to re-establish ourselves above this zone, we move strongly upwards. This was also the case here. I totally think it's possible that we have a similar phase now, a break, a slightly deeper correction, a re-accumulation, and then a strong upward move. This is what I'm targeting. This is what we're targeting in our investment circle. So don't hesitate if you want to join us. So it's open to everyone, even beginners, etc., for whom this analysis seems quite confusing, with many indicators, many terms, a lot of technicality, etc. Well, unfortunately, you have to be able to understand what the majority of people don't understand. That's what makes you win and others lose. I remind you that financial markets are zero-sum markets, meaning that when you win, other people are losing. So to win, you need to be more trained than the majority of other people. And so, our added value in the investment circle is to help you level up little by little through a deeper understanding of the markets, to protect yourself during potential downturns, and to expose yourself strongly during significant rebound phases. So here, obviously, we will target this famous capitulation because if we reach it, well, we have already protected our portfolio quite well. Well, "casse-lan tienne" is rather positive for us, but it's simply to tell you that you have the possibility to do this kind of analysis for yourself as well. It's not inevitable to suffer drops and see phases go up without you in them. Okay? A truly quantitative strategy like the one I advocate on this YouTube channel and in my investment circle is something you can achieve. So, I hope you enjoyed this video. If so, please let us know, and don't hesitate to join us in the investment circle or contact us via Telegram to get more information about the terms, about questions, etc., about our strategy. You can of course reach me via Telegram and discuss with me. I'll explain everything to you. So, thank you. Have a good week and be careful. Be careful. Thank you. Goodbye.