Transcription
Hello everyone. So, as usual, when Bitcoin goes up, everyone, all the analysts are geniuses. And obviously, when Bitcoin goes down, then we look for explanations. Yes, the 4-year cycle, but the Fed, liquidity, all that. So we're going to try to go through my method together. So here you'll see, we're going to go through this mind map together to look at how we analyze Bitcoin, how we do it in a simple yet rigorous way, because there are many things to look at. And the problem for the majority of people is that you'll scroll on X and you'll find lots of information. Sometimes charts that are bullish, sometimes charts that are bearish. You don't know exactly which one is more important than the other or which one is simply a repetition of another indicator you've seen before. So we're going to go through this mind map together to see how we analyze Bitcoin rationally and what my strategy is. At the end, I'll explain all of that to you a bit. So already, for the crypto market analysis part, what you need to look at are the short-term and long-term prospects for Bitcoin. So to do that, we'll first look at the short term, we'll rely on this indicator. Okay, this chart, so it's CoinGlass that offers it, obviously for those who follow us, it's something we use very, very often. The advantage of this is that we'll be able to look at what's happening on the derivatives market. So I remind you that stock markets, crypto markets, like most financial markets, are divided into two parts. The spot market part. Okay? So this is really the holding of the asset itself. So you'll hold Bitcoin on the spot markets. And here are the derivatives contracts. The goal is solely to make a directional bet in one direction or the other. Okay? If you are long, you will buy the market and therefore bet on the rise. You will then have a stop loss, meaning that if Bitcoin goes down, well, you will be liquidated and all the money you deposited will be recovered. Let's say you deposited 1000, and you bet with a stop loss here, well, your 1000 dollars will be recovered. And here, if your target is reached, let's say here, and Bitcoin goes up, you might recover, let's say 5000 dollars. This is very schematic for many, it's something that's taken for granted. But the principle of derivatives contracts is that you do not hold the asset. Okay? So you have exchange platforms that offer these contracts, and they will hedge if they buy the asset or not to cover themselves. Because obviously, if the principle is that everyone buys and bets on the rise, well, if everyone wins, someone will have to pay those winnings. So exchange platforms will cover themselves and potentially buy the underlying asset, but not always, because it's very simple. If you have a trader betting 1 million dollars on the rise and a trader betting 1 million dollars on the fall, well, only one of them will win. So the losses of one will cover the gains of the other. And that's why you have arbitrage mechanisms, including this one, the funding rates, which simply represent how much we want to arbitrage in one direction or the other. The higher this curve goes, the higher you see it in the green, the more it means that many people are betting on the rise, and therefore we incentivize, okay, we economically reward, so we give money to all the people who bet on the fall. Okay? Conversely, when it's in the red, it means that many people are betting on the fall, and therefore we will financially reward, simply give fees to all the people who buy the market to counterbalance all of that. So the short term, okay, if we go back, if we go back to this mind map, the goal of this short term will be to look at probable technical rebounds, okay? the risks and weaknesses we might have, and the key levels and supports we can rely on. So we'll go back to our chart and look at that together. The first thing, then, will be to look at these funding rates. How much of a changing dynamic is there in the funding rates. Here, you see that we have a rise. So this means that here, during this phase, here, hop, a certain number of people, traders, entered with euphoria in the markets, thinking that now, it was going to go up. And obviously, we also see this on the liquidations. You see that here, during this period, we had quite a few traders who entered on the downside. So their liquidation was above the price, but also on the upside. You see that here, we also had a lot of liquidations. So the market, being a trap as it is, what does it do? It liquidates in both directions. Okay? Big rise then a fall, and hop, we go below the previous supports. So in a single move. Okay. 3000 dollars up, 4000 dollars down. We came to recover all the liquidity that was above the price and part of the liquidity that was below. Now, as always, there are always some who remain, right? There are a few left above, a few left below. If we zoom out, anyway, there's always liquidity everywhere. That's the principle. If you are a long-term trader, you will tend to have positions that are de facto longer-term, and therefore you will position yourself on Bitcoin with much deeper stop losses. Okay? Those who do intraday trading, okay, who open and close their positions before the end of the day, they will obviously have their stop losses much closer to the price. So the short term, we analyze it like this. What can we say currently? We can simply say that we are in a range phase. We have a lower bound here, an upper bound here on the very short term, and on the slightly longer term. Okay? Well, we have our major support level here and our resistance level here. Okay? It's a major level that we worked on, you see, for a long time. Hop, we leaned on it. Then we were below it, we couldn't break through it, then we broke through it, and so on. So, we are roughly between 90,000 and 83,000. We are oscillating within that, and we see that here, we have quite a bit of weakness, because if you look at the cumulative volume delta, it's simply the sum of market buys on the spot contracts. So this is the real holding, and you see that it's only decreasing. Conversely, here on the derivatives contracts, we have a small rebound. So it's not that we had a rise here, it's simply because it was driven by derivatives contracts. And conversely, well, on the spot markets, you had a lot of selling. And so, naturally, well, here, we have a risk, especially with the current configuration, that is to say, hop, a phase of rise and then a fall. Here, in fact, this is called a Wyckoff distribution. Okay? So the principle here is to liquidate as many people as possible before starting the real movement, which will be the downward movement. And so, very likely in the short term, the price objective is to recover at least the objective of 83,800 dollars, but very likely just a little below to liquidate all the people who might have placed their stop there. So the short term, that's what it tells us. And to see a bit what's happening in the long term, we'll look at many other indicators. Okay? The other indicators, well, they are precisely those that will be more about the flows of the behavior of large players and macroeconomics. That's what will determine the long-term trend. So, let's look a bit at the flow side. What do we need to look at? So, on the derivatives side, we looked at everything related to the order flow and derivatives contracts. So here we were on the Binance contract. Okay, the Binance perpetual contract. But we'll also look a bit at what's happening with options. So for the options part, you have a chart which is this one, the open interest put and call ratio. So it's the ratio of put options to call options. What are put options? They are rights to sell an asset. So if you are here, for example, on Bitcoin, you will get the right to sell Bitcoin at a price lower than its current price. So for that, you will have an expiration date and a premium. Okay? So you will have to pay fees. So let's say you pay 10 dollars for a put option that allows you to sell a Bitcoin at 80,000 dollars by March 31st. So let's say on March 31st, Bitcoin is not currently at 86,000 dollars as it is here, but around 65,000 dollars. Okay. You will have the right to sell Bitcoin at 80,000 dollars. So you will simply pocket the difference between the current price of 65,000 and the 80,000 which is the price of your put option. And so this difference of 15,000 dollars will be in your pocket. So you paid 10 dollars and in return you will earn 15,000. If, conversely, Bitcoin is at 81,000 dollars, so it's above your price, you don't have the obligation to exercise your right to sell Bitcoin at 80,000. So you will simply let your contract expire and you will lose the amount you invested. So you will lose your 10 dollars. So it can be interesting to do this, and many large portfolios hedge with this. Now, honestly, many try to overcomplicate their strategy by buying puts, selling puts, buying calls, and so on. Honestly, I don't think it's very useful unless you have a lot of liquidity, because simply what it amounts to is hedging, meaning de-risking your portfolio. If you have tons of Bitcoin and you want to sell them, well, the problem is that when you are an institution, if you sell them, you will move the Bitcoin price a lot, because if you simply sell 5 billion dollars of Bitcoin in a day, well, it will be noticeable. You see that when we had the movement on Bitcoin, with the movement we had yesterday with a lot of buying and then selling, well, simply what happened with a market buy and then sell? Well, this happened. Boom, significant buying, then significant selling, and the price goes down again. So the problem is that if you have too large a portfolio, when you buy on the market, since there aren't enough buyers in the order book, your execution price will increase, and you'll see the Bitcoin price skyrocket. So large portfolios don't want to see that. So what do they do? Well, they simply position themselves on options, and at least it's a contract, so it's not visible in the price. You can take it without needing to sell your Bitcoin. When you have a small portfolio, well, what you do is simply sell your Bitcoin. It's useless to expose yourself to this kind of asset. Honestly, it's not, it's overcomplicating things for very little. So, here, you see that at the options level, well, we had a big drop. This means that we expected a rebound, simply because calls, which are the opposite, meaning you get the right to buy Bitcoin at a price higher than current. So a call option, for example, you'll pay 10 dollars and for March 31st, you estimate that Bitcoin will be above 110,000 dollars. If Bitcoin is at 150,000, well, you pocket 150 - 110. So you pocket 40,000 dollars when you only bet 10. So it's very profitable. Of course, these are completely arbitrary figures. In reality, it doesn't happen like that. You can imagine. And indeed, there are several mechanisms at play. That is to say, if here you bet that by Christmas, we will be above 150,000 dollars, you might indeed only pay 10 dollars per Bitcoin, even though it will surely be more because it's highly, highly, highly improbable. Okay? So if you are indeed right on very, very daring bets, well, you will be highly compensated. But obviously, there are no secrets, risk rewards. So if you get huge rewards, it's because you're taking a lot of risk. If you take an option for Bitcoin to be above 200,000 dollars before 2030, well, you can imagine, well, first of all, that doesn't exist. But otherwise, you can imagine that you would have to pay a lot of premiums because, well, it's a scenario that is very, very probable. Okay? And anyway, the longer the time, the higher the premium. Okay? So here, you see that we have a slight stagnation of this ratio. This means that at that moment, more people are hedging against major risks. Okay? We don't have overexposure. So you see here, we're back around neutrality, right? 0.50 is neutrality. So this means we are not in an area where we are hedging against a potential risk of a huge dip. Okay? We are not afraid of a major capitulation. You see that here, when we had strong rallies like for example here, here, or here, this means that we fear a huge dip. Okay? And that was very linked to the options expiration. We had the April 2nd expiration, which was Donald Trump's Liberation Day. Naturally, everyone was afraid of what would happen. So people were anticipating a potential crash. A crash that happened. A micro-crash, but a crash nonetheless. Okay. Conversely, when you have a détente, when there's good news, etc., you expect a rebound rather than a dip, and therefore you will reduce your put exposure or you will simply buy calls, and therefore you will have this ratio decrease. So from this point of view, we are quite neutral. Okay? So on the derivatives side, we are quite neutral on options. However, on futures contracts, you see that there is still euphoria in the markets. Whereas on the fear and greed index, the sentiment is still very low. We are at 17%, we have been in extreme fear for a very long time. But we are starting to get used to it. However, you see that on derivatives contracts, we are not in extreme fear. There are phases where we regain a bit of euphoria, etc. So, so danger, okay, on the derivatives. On the traditional finance side, if we look a bit at what's happening, we had financial inflows yesterday. So you know that I mainly look at BlackRock's portfolio because it's both the largest, you see here in terms of AUM, and also in terms of strategy. You have many other portfolios that have different strategies than simple buy and hold, let's say, or active management. BlackRock is the one that is most revealing of investors' real behavior. Now, there are no massive sales, I want to point that out, but you see that there is no trend either. Okay? Here, well, sometimes we have good days and sometimes we have bad days, and if we look a bit at Glassnode, you see that here we are rather recently, right? If we look recently, there was absolutely no trend. A few green bars but a few red bars as well. And recently, we are more on selling. So institutions tend to offload at current levels. If we now look at the on-chain analysis part, on the on-chain side, we will try to look at the behavior of different portfolios. So you have several large cohorts and several groups of people. So first, you have everything that will be long-term holders. So we will try to differentiate them not by portfolio size but by their behavior. Have they been present on the markets for a long time or are they more short-term? So here, we will focus on long-term holders since you know that, as Warren Buffett said, markets reward the most patient, okay? And so traditionally, it will be long-term holders who will have the best performance. You see, it's a bit true. I'll show you, just on the previous three cycles. Here, long-term holders sold during the upward phase, okay? and then bought when we started to have downward phases and capitulation. Okay? They really waited. Well, obviously, during capitulation phases, the principle of capitulation is that everyone sells, okay? Long-term and short-term will sell, but you see that they tend to buy more during dips, sell during tops. Lots of buying here, lots of selling here. And well, the problem is that here we had selling during this upward phase. Then buying during the dip phase, selling during the upward phase. Buying during the dip phase. Okay? Here. Then, we had selling during the upward phase, and here the problem is that we are going down and we are selling. And so, unfortunately, that's not a very good sign. Well, as a reminder, this happened around here, we had a top, and here, during the downward phase, you see, we had a phase of unloading by long-term holders. And that's not a very good sign. Okay? Because precisely, we would like to see long-term holders, portfolios, large portfolios or small portfolios, but in any case, people who have been around for a long time who would be more in a buying dynamic. That's what happened in previous bottoms. And I see many people talking about indicators like moving averages, for example, which show that here we are at the same moving average levels as here, here, here, and so on, and therefore we are simply in a dip in an upward trend. Granted, but the behavior has changed a lot. During previous dips, we had a lot of buying, okay? Whether it was here, here, or here, we had a lot of buying. Now, that's not the case. So, likely, we will have to reach a deeper dip before finding buying again. Obviously, these people will reposition themselves. We will have long-term holders who will reposition themselves, but for now, you see, that's not the case. So if we come back a bit here, you see that from an on-chain perspective, if we look a bit at long-term holders, well, it's not great. If we now look at whales, so this is the supply, so the number of Bitcoins held by whales. Okay? So here you have the three previous cycles, okay? The 2016-2017 cycle, I started around here. Many people from this cycle started here in 2020-2021, and that's also why many are trapped, because this cycle is very different from the 2020-2021 one. That's why everyone is focused on liquidity. All the people who are focused on liquidity, I can tell you, 99% of them, well, they've mainly been here since 2020-2021, and since that was the catalyst for 2020-2021, they are waiting for that catalyst again. But for me, who was more here, well, you know that we didn't have a liquidity catalyst in 2017-2016. It was more an influx of new people, it was mainly the influx of retail that really drove the price increase. So it doesn't surprise me that everyone is talking about liquidity and so on, that many YouTubers are talking about liquidity, but it's not always, again, I made a video dedicated to this subject, but it's not the only factor to look at. In any case, here, if I remove the overall balance, you have here the 30-day change, okay? in Bitcoin holdings by large portfolios, and you see that it's only decreasing. So from a long-term perspective, from a behavioral perspective, long-term holders are only selling, but from a position size perspective, whales are also only selling. Here you see that they sold the top. Here they also sold the top. You see when this curve is low, it means they are unloading. They unloaded, they reloaded during the dip phases, right? Here, here, they reloaded, here, they reloaded during the previous dip phases as well, during our 2025 cycle. Here, they had started to reload a bit. Okay, so this was a real trap movement because here, they had started to reload. So that's what motivated me to enter a position at that time. Okay? A partial entry, obviously. I'll talk to you about my strategy again, but here, we see that there is a real change, okay? And so you have to change, you have to adapt. It's not being a weather vane to change your portfolio exposure, it's risk management, and that's paramount. So if we also look, I'll show you other indicators. So here, I'm lucky enough to have a Glassnode subscription that gives me precise data on the behavior of large portfolios. And you see that here, well, on the Bitcoin side, you have a lot of selling. So here you have the number of portfolios holding more than 1000 Bitcoin, and you see that the number is only decreasing, okay? Because here, since this rebound phase, this rebound phase is a saving phase for those who want to exit, and they are using it to unload massively before a probable next dip. It's very, very important to understand this. Those who tell you here the bull market has arrived, it makes no sense. Simply because we don't define the bull market. We cannot predict a bull market simply because the beginning of a bull market and the beginning of a correction in an upward trend are exactly the same. I'll come back to this because it's extremely important and it's very misunderstood by the majority of people here. Okay. I'll come back to the previous cycle because here we had the famous bull market and weekly that we had in 2022. Here. Here, you cannot know that we are going to enter a bear market. It's simply impossible because when you are here, okay, or even when you are here, you are simply in a correction, okay? Which can be perfectly healthy, okay? You can be here, you can be here, you can be here. You don't know if you are in a downward trend or an upward trend simply by looking at the price. And therefore, you cannot, on the downside, especially during the downward phase here, you cannot know in advance if we are in a bear market or if we are simply in a correction. What changes is precisely here, okay? It's precisely the behavior during the rebound phase. So I'll repeat, the behavior during rebound phases in a downward trend is the main indicator of whether we are entering a bear market or a more prolonged downward trend, or if we are in a rebound phase. Okay? Here, we can know that there will be a correction, I grant you that. We can know that there will be a downward phase, yes, many things could have told us that. Okay? Similarly, here, I made a video, you can find it on the channel around here, around I don't know, this week, let's say around here, saying that a drop is very likely. At that time, I told you that a drop was very likely, but that there was not necessarily a risk of, there was not necessarily a reason to worry dramatically. Okay. Following that, we had October 10th. Anyway, and here, we had a real change, a real, real big change compared to the behavior we had seen here, here, or here, for example. Here, we had an unloading. Okay? That was truly unprecedented, okay? During this rebound phase, to see the behavior of people change in a downward trend. And again, that's the difference. The difference is that when you are in a downward trend, okay, you normally have large portfolios or long-term investors who determine these price levels and this opportunity as an opportunity to buy. Okay? And so, normally, you should find buying. You should find large portfolios buying, long-term holders buying, miners buying. We'll talk about that later, but that's what you're normally looking for. That's what you're supposed to find. And if you don't find them, if conversely you find that this rebound is rather a moment when these entities and these traders and these investors are rather selling, then you have to say danger. Danger means that people have completely changed their behavior. The behavior that was a behavior of "I'm looking for buys during correction phases to sell during upward phases" has changed. I'm looking for sells during rebound phases to potentially look for buys lower and or much lower or really, really lower. I don't know. Okay. But in any case, during rebound phases, if you see a change in behavior from large portfolios, well, you have to follow them. Okay? So let's go back here. Whales, well, you see that here, hop, if we look at whales, you are seeing that fewer and fewer whales hold more than 1000 Bitcoin. If I show you the total here, okay, I'll show you in orange this curve which represents the total, the number of portfolios holding more than 1000 Bitcoin. You see that since this phase, it has only been decreasing. We reached our top here at 125,000 dollars at the time, so on October 6th. And then, you see, we had a huge, huge, huge drop. And the problem is that, well, we had the Coinbase migration on November 22nd-23rd, which indeed disrupted many on-chain analysis tools, but you see that the behavior continues. It continues on this rebound. You had here, okay, if I zoom in a bit on this rebound phase right here. Okay, I'll zoom out a bit so we can see more clearly. You see here, so here we had part of the migration, but here you see here we had another step that was crossed with here again large portfolios that sold, sold, sold massively. And that's a real problem because you know that the price only goes up because there are more buyers than sellers, and the price goes down because there are more sellers than buyers, and there are no buyers here. If we look at the other main cohorts, okay, let's look at the position of Bitcoin miners. So all those, all the large companies, Mara, etc., Riot, who do Bitcoin mining, who have real factories that transform electricity into Bitcoin, well, you see that here, they sold massively here post-dip, okay? after this dip at 80,000, well, after that they took advantage of the rebound to lighten up massively, and again, that's not a good sign. Okay? Miners, regardless of their behavior, exert downward pressure. I remind you that they mine Bitcoin, and therefore they have new Bitcoins available every 10 minutes. Well, every 10 minutes, miners are more inclined to sell than to say, "I'll keep them because I think Bitcoin will be more expensive in a few weeks or months." Well, here, the people who mine Bitcoin, as soon as they receive them as a reward from the blockchain, they rush to put them on the markets, transfer them to exchanges, and sell them. Okay? And so, again, we have a real problem because what we want is a buyer-seller imbalance that favors buyers. And so, the on-chain analysis here says danger. The macro context, we will try to look at economic indicators. On the economic indicators side, we are entering a calmer week next week since we will have the entire Christmas period, etc., and then after that, there is the entire Christmas, New Year period, etc. So we'll have to meet again in early January. Okay. There won't be much in terms of really interesting and important quotes until then. This doesn't mean we won't have price movements, but it means that the main decisions will be made before and after. Here, we have the CPI, if I recall correctly. Yes, no, that was at the beginning of the week. Okay, we have the US CPI, so the US inflation figures. So these are the figures for November. Here, we are on Trueflation. We see that, well, inflation has risen, we have to acknowledge that, but it's still quite moderate, so it's not a real problem either. So, yes, we can look at what's happening. For now, there's no real alert on this level. We will indeed always have weekly jobless claims to watch and PCE figures on Friday. And these will be the last news we'll have by the end of the year, since after that, we'll have a break with a sort of small winter truce. So if we look here from a monetary policy perspective, considering these elements, investors on CME Group, here, CME Group traders anticipate that there will be no rate cut for the January 28, 2026 meeting. Okay? We will remain at current rates, and we would likely have to wait for the March meeting. Okay? to have a first rate cut. It's not guaranteed. You see that it's about 50/50, right? Well, there's a probability of being, of being completely here if we have a rate cut in January. But you see that it's a bit more dispersed for the March meeting. We don't know.
exactly what it is. Uh it will be mostly well what will happen at the end of this year and especially what will happen at the beginning of next year that will determine if uh we need strength or not. Uh if the economy is strong and if therefore we need to have uh uh well we don't need to have a rate cut or if rather precisely uh we have weaknesses and that we need to uh intensify the monetary policy easing. So the macroeconomic context, it is indeed at a low point, okay? We are in a phase that is rather positive. If we simply look here at the anticipated rate cut pace, it is still present. We still estimate that by mid-2026, we will be around 3%. So it's rather interesting, it's rather good for the markets because it will give breathing room, it will precisely balance the risk-reward between the bond markets and the equity markets. And well, the lower the rates go, the less interesting it is to position oneself in the bond markets. So you will rather have people who will position themselves in the equity markets saying well since I earn more money with the bond markets, I will try to look for a little money on the stock side. So it's rather good to see a rate pace that will accelerate. You have the famous copper and gold ratios that are at their lowest. So precisely, we could be in an interesting rebound phase. Now, we don't know exactly when it will happen because the principle of these indicators, of liquidity, of many things that will happen in the markets, is that it doesn't happen in a week, okay? It doesn't happen in a week, it doesn't happen in a month, it happens gradually over the quarter, etc. And so we are not at all immune to having a movement like this, okay? and then having something like this and that at the end, with all the good news, we have a mid-2026 that is positive and brings us higher. It's entirely possible. Okay? But precisely the fact that we have good macroeconomic news, it absolutely does not protect us from an end of the year and a beginning of the year, especially 2026, that is bearish. Not at all. And this, I want to emphasize, you should not invest and protect your short-term portfolio simply by looking at the macroeconomic context. This is truly a big mistake that most people make. You cannot be a YouTuber and make a video every two days and only talk about the macroeconomic context. So, I know that for many it's easier because the macroeconomic context is positive and that ultimately you've seen the overall trend, we are rather on the only positive point. We see that on-chain it's not positive. Traditional finance is negative. Derivatives are negative. Long-term trend. Well, indeed, it's positive because it's linked to the macro context and the short-term trend, which is rather linked to all of this, is rather negative. And so all of this to tell you that you need to adjust your portfolio. And so the Medusa strategy, it is very important in my eyes. It is a philosophy of active management. That is to say, when I see all of this, when I see that the macroeconomic context is positive, but that the context of flows and the short-term trend is rather negative, then what do I do? I lighten the portfolio. I lighten the portfolio and I have an approach that is obviously based on quantitative analysis. Okay? So a rational approach. I try not to fall into this famous confirmation bias which means that when you are positive, you only look at and pay attention to indicators that go in your direction. So, I constantly look for people who are the opposite of me. So I also watch YouTube channels that are ultra bullish to try to see which indicators they highlight and if, in my opinion, it seems justified or not. And I especially try to avoid excesses. Okay? Currently, we are in a phase where the market is purging a bit since the peak of 92,93,000. We have significantly lightened our position in our investment circle at the 93 level. Well, obviously this is what you should be looking for, okay? You should not act during this phase, and it is during rebound phases that you should ask yourself, should I remain invested or should I lighten my position? Okay? And this is extremely important, it is to avoid excesses. So managing exposure is also an important part of the strategy, meaning we don't enter crypto 100% directly, and we don't sell all at once, going from 100 to 0%. We will manage, we will modulate, okay, the crypto exposure which is broken down into Bitcoin and altcoin exposure and stablecoin exposure. So you have these three sliders that you adjust. So you see, in this way, here we are on our website. So we will increase the proportion of stablecoins during risk phases. Then we will decrease the stablecoin phase and increase the Bitcoin phase. We will decrease the altcoin phase. All of this is management, and this is precisely what you must do, it is to manage your exposure to always have an exposure that is consistent with short-term risks, with long-term prospects, etc. You must seek symmetry, buy during fear phases or in any case buy during phases when everyone is selling incorrectly. Okay? everyone is selling because market sentiment is negative, but yet we have indicators, so always a rational approach that shows us that we still have reasons to expect a probable rebound. Okay? And this is what allowed us to position ourselves during these phases as well, okay? During these downward phases. Obviously, we don't always make the right choice, but the essential thing is if you play with probabilities, well, you know the casino always ends up winning. So if you are on the right side of probabilities, you will very likely be right more often than you are wrong. And this is obviously what we will seek to achieve performance. And so, your portfolio allocation, this is what you will be able to manage, to what extent you enter certain cryptos, to what extent you exit others, etc. And all of this happens in our investment circle. So for those who wish, you can join our private Telegram channel. So you have the links in the description to join us, this famous website that you have right here. So you have our performances right here. This is new. So I have started again from reality. Okay. So the performance between October 28th and December 10th. Try to look at if you had remained invested with €10,000 starting capital, if you had remained invested only in Bitcoin, you would currently only have €7,575. Okay? So a loss of approximately 25%. If you were full altcoin, well for altcoins, we based it on the chart on TradingView which corresponds to cryptos from the top 11 to the top 125. Okay? you would have had substantially the same performance since Bitcoin dominance was quite stable during this phase, and our Medusa strategy, okay, protected the portfolio, going from 10,000 to 9,000. Well, again, you see that the market gives us what it gives us. So if we have a phase where the market is purging, in a strategy like mine, which does not practice shorting, then my main goal is especially not to lose money. Okay? And this is what Warren Buffett said. Before starting to make money, you must first start by not losing it. Okay? And this is the goal. Our goal is during downward phases to be able to protect ourselves, to protect capital. Okay. So October 28th, if we look, we were simply here, here, here, here, here, here. Here, October 28th, we were here. Okay. And well, during this entire downward phase, okay. Well, on the Medusa side, our portfolio, which is exposed to altcoins, Bitcoin, and stablecoins over time. During this phase, it lost only 10% of its value. A little less than 10% of its value. What you see here, this is real. So based simply on the weightings I use. So obviously this is what you should be looking for, okay? protect capital during downward phases in order to, when you reinvest during lower phases, perhaps here, perhaps here, I don't know, when you reinvest, have maximum capital to be able to play the rise again and to be able to truly, truly benefit from it. So you have two free courses, a part on technical analysis, chart analysis, which allows you to improve your skills on all these phases, all these notions, Wyckoff analysis, Elliott waves, Ichimoku, etc. So all of this is what you need to progress on. Obviously, financial markets are zero-sum markets, okay? So if you win, it's because someone else loses, and so you have to be better than others to be able to win where others will lose. It's as simple as that. Okay? You wouldn't go into a boxing ring with someone very, very trained in front of you and you absolutely not trained. Well, it's the same for financial markets, there's no League 1, League 2, etc. Everyone plays with the same tools at the same time in the same market. Okay? So you're playing with BlackRock, you're playing with people who have been there for years, with people who have strategies, with people who have advisors, with people who have more information, etc. So if you are irrational, if you are not trained, or if you are simply subject to your emotions, then you will get wiped out and you will be the counterparty to all the people who, well, act with coldness and rationality. So the courses have this goal, to help you progress in this aspect. The technical aspect, which in my opinion is really primordial since, well, again, it has proven itself throughout this downward phase. There were a lot of things that were predictable thanks to technical analysis and graphical analysis, meaning chart reading, but technical analysis which includes graphical analysis and on-chain analysis. You also have a strategy course which will allow you to improve your skills in creating a portfolio, in managing exchanges, what multiples to expect, the principle of liquidity, etc. You also have access to Glassnode indicators. I showed you some here, okay? But I have many others that I look at and that I share with the community via this private Telegram channel. So you can find it, you can find it precisely from the moment you subscribe to this subscription. Glassnode indicators. Well, obviously they cost, well, the Glassnode subscription costs more than the subscription to our private Telegram channel. This is because it's precise, very complete data that allows for rational investment. So, I give access to all of this for free through my analyses. So, don't hesitate. Now, I can't give everyone a Glassnode account, I don't have the power to do that, absolutely not. But I share all the Glassnode information that seems relevant to me, knowing that I use several dozen and I obviously look at all of this every day. So, I also hold an AMF certification, the French financial markets authority. So I am not a financial investment advisor, meaning I am not registered with ORIAS, but I have this AMF certification, which is a guarantee of seriousness and compliance, especially regarding knowledge of regulations and financial markets. So you see, when we zoom out a bit, by following this process, you are able to look at the market with eyes that are mine, that is to say, eyes that I hope are rational and that allow for the best possible analysis of Bitcoin. So, I hope this video was enjoyable for you. If you have questions, you also have the possibility to contact us on Telegram here, by clicking on this icon, on this QR code. You will access our Telegram channel, a private discussion channel between you and me, only, and afterwards, you can see if you like it and if you want to join us. So, I hope this video was enjoyable for you. I thank you for the time spent watching it. In any case, I still think we are bearish and that the objective is still around $80,000. But obviously, we will have to adjust all of this over time, try to understand where we are, and adapt the strategy for the same logic, capital protection above all. So, thank you. Have a good day.