Transcription
Italians will head to the polls on Sunday and Monday for a high-stakes constitutional referendum that will test Prime Minister George Maloney's apparent aura of untouchability. On the ballot is her government's proposed reform that would overhaul the Italian judiciary and which is just the latest battle in a long-running conflict between Italy's conservative political forces and the country's influential judiciary. So, in this video, we're going to explain Maloney's judicial reform and then take a look at the polling which suggests the referendum result will be tight and explain what's at stake if Maloney loses.
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The struggle between the Italian right and the judiciary is not a new phenomenon. Former Prime Minister Sylvio Berleskonei was involved in some 35 criminal court cases, many involving his huge media empire, and he spent decades battling the judiciary, accusing it of being politically motivated, biased, and in the hands of the left. His efforts at overhauling the proudly independent judiciary were largely unsuccessful. But Georgia Maloney has taken up the crusade, which her government has described as the reform of all reforms. Maloney's own political agenda has faced several legal hurdles like judges' decisions against her plan to process asylum seekers in Albania.
To understand the reform known as the Nordio reform after Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, you need to know how the judiciary is currently set up. In brief, public prosecutors and judges follow the same career path and form part of the same self-governing council, the High Council of the Judiciary or CSM. The reform would separate the career tracks of prosecutors and judges, preventing individuals from switching roles and would replace the CSM with two distinct oversight bodies, one for judges and one for prosecutors, which handle things like appointments, promotions, and so on. It would also create a new disciplinary court to handle misconduct cases across both professions.
The career separation is relatively uncontroversial and something that politicians of different stripes have advocated for for some time, as putting some distance between prosecutors and judges is seen as good for ensuring impartial justice. However, career switches have already become a pretty rare occurrence, with around 1% of serving magistrates switching career paths between 2022 and 2024. What is controversial though is the proposal that those serving on the new oversight bodies will no longer be elected by their colleagues but will be chosen by lottery. Two-thirds will come from the professions and the other third will be lay members from a list drawn up by parliament.
Proponents of the reform, like the governing parties and most other conservative parties, say the lottery system will reduce the influence of internal factions, which they highlight as having contributed to cronyism, like the 2019 scandal that involved senior figures fixing appointments. Combating factionalism, they say, will boost meritocracy and impartiality. Opponents, however, like most opposition parties and the National Association of Magistrates, argue that a lottery system will actually be bad for meritocracy and that electing the leaders of the oversight bodies is something that gives them legitimacy. They also argue that more broadly the reform is part of a government push to weaken the long-standing independence and autonomy of the judiciary, which is a core part of Italy's postwar democratic constitution, thereby making it more susceptible to political pressure. These concerns are amplified by the government's confrontational attitude towards the judiciary for its various rulings against Maloney's plans and the government's suggestions that a yes vote in the referendum is a chance to rebuke judges who have been a thorn in her side.
Now, under the Italian constitution, constitutional amendments such as the judicial reform are automatically ratified if they're approved by both chambers of the Italian Parliament with a two-thirds majority. The judicial reform was approved in October, but not by the required majority, hence why it's being put to the public in a referendum. There's no minimum turnout requirement, and only a simple majority is required for approval.
So, what do the polls say? Well, last year, the yes camp was leading, but as the vote got closer and campaigning really got going, things have tightened significantly, and it could narrowly go either way. By all indications, it will come down to turnout, with low turnout likely favoring the no camp and higher turnout favoring yes. One of the final polls from earlier in the month, before the pre-referendum polling blackout began, showed narrow no victories at turnouts of 44% and 47%, and a narrow yes victory at 51% turnout. This is pretty worrying for Maloney and the yes camp. It's harder to mobilize excitement and support for what is ultimately quite a technical reform on the judicial system than it is for opponents to mobilize against the government and its proposal. At the 2022 election, the right-wing coalition was boosted by the disunity of the left of center. Whereas a simple yes no referendum brings no risk of a split opposition vote and instead provides voters a very obvious way of giving the government a bloody nose.
We probably don't need to explain what happens if the yes camp wins. The reform will be approved and Maloney's government will be happy. But what's at stake if they lose? Naturally, it would scupper her reform agenda. Maloney herself said that if the judicial reforms fail, we will probably not have another chance. Furthermore, it might prompt her government to rethink its approach to its other major reforms, notably its proposed and contentious electoral reform, which is seen as benefiting her coalition.
Until recently, Maloney had largely stayed on the sidelines of the referendum campaign, which was fronted more by allies and ministers, perhaps so as to not tie herself too much to the result. However, the referendum has increasingly become seen as a vote of appraisal or disapproval in her government, and she has more directly involved herself in the campaign. She's been seeking to strike a balance, campaign enough to boost her side's chances, but not so much that she becomes the face of it and risks greater political damage if she loses. Adding to the drama of this referendum is that there is precedent for Italian prime ministers to resign after being defeated in constitutional referendums. That's exactly what Matteo Renzi did in 2016. Although that happened in quite a different political context, and his defeat was by a much wider margin and on a higher turnout than polls suggest could happen at the upcoming referendum.
Additionally, Maloney has vowed not to resign if voters reject her judicial reform. But let's say the reform is rejected and Maloney is true to her word and doesn't resign. It would still be a big blow. For one, it would pierce the aura of invincibility that she's generated at home and abroad, which has helped her govern with such un-Italian stability during her years in office and could provoke a degree of unrest inside her right-wing coalition. Finally, a win for the no camp would also provide Italy's opposition with some fresh enthusiasm ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027 and give opposition parties like the Democratic Party and Five-Star Movement greater impetus to form a broad left-wing alliance that would have a better chance of unseating Maloney in 2027.
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