Transcription
We have never seen the United States' bargaining power that is truly incredibly diminished in this round of negotiations. That one single war changed the global political landscape immensely. The issue is that once the decision to enter war has been made, it must be won. If it is not won, in the capacity of a superpower, it will become a power regression and a loss of trust from its allies.
>> But at the same time, there was a reaction from Trump who kept threatening, "Hey, hey, what's happening?" Can we decode, uh, from the United States? When there is no way out, it must lead to negotiations. This means the United States was pressured to come and, uh, negotiate with Iran. And importantly, it's very interesting, Khun Niew, that when signing the online document, right? The US side, regarding Trump, he probably didn't understand the context of international political history. He went to sign at the Palace of Versailles, which, which there, is a symbol of surrender of the German side in World War I.
>> And regarding the, uh, unlocking of frozen funds, up to 12,000 million US dollars, do you think, Professor, that Iran will use it to restore its economy, restore its own country, right? Or will they actually agree to what Trump said, to use it to buy food, buy goods from the United States? Is that possible, Professor? [Music]
It is good news, a good sign, that, uh, both sides, uh, finally, uh, came to meet. And even though there were some obstacles along the way, uh, there was, uh, a situation where, uh, during the negotiations, suddenly Trump threw a bomb onto the negotiation table, posting about various threats. Uh, but the mediators, uh, we must praise the mediators, both Pakistan and Qatar, who worked very hard, uh, to keep the circle going, even though Iran walked out of the room, but, uh, they were asked to come back, to talk, to negotiate further in the room. Uh, we saw everyone's faces, uh, whether it was the US Vice President J.D. Vance, uh, the face of the Gibaf side, Iran's chief negotiator, Araghchi, the Foreign Minister, or the Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan, and also the leader of Qatar. Uh, everyone's faces looked serious, and [laughter] uh, I knew right away that everything was, uh, let's say, unpredictable. It was truly minute by minute, uh, uh, when the leader, uh, of the Iranian negotiation team walked out of the room, it caused confusion, uh, for, uh, the whole room. But anyway, uh, reaching this point, uh, is a good thing, that, uh, both parties, uh, uh, have realized that using force, uh, is not the solution, and cannot lead to permanent victory. Ultimately, it led to, uh, negotiations. Uh, but this is a negotiation that needs to be emphasized a little, uh, that, uh, this round, [clears throat] we have never seen the United States, let's say, uh, to call it utterly helpless is not right, but its bargaining power, uh, is truly incredibly diminished in this round of negotiations. It turns out that, uh, the side that urgently wants to negotiate is the United States, and, uh, it turns out that, uh, in all the agreements, uh, the side that wants to get something is Iran, uh, has the opportunity, uh, to get what, uh, it wants. This is the overall picture, uh, of the negotiations.
>> Yes, it seems like a distant victory for Iran, Professor. Professor, could you please analyze why the US doesn't have much bargaining power in this negotiation, even though it's a superpower? But at the same time, there's a reaction from Trump who keeps threatening, "Hey, hey, what's happening?" Can we decode, uh, from the United States?
>> The United States before the war on February 28th and after the war, every day now, it's almost 4 months, uh, the status is incredibly different, uh. That one single war changed the global political landscape immensely. The issue is that once the decision to enter war has been made, it must be won. If it is not won, in the capacity of a superpower, it will become a power regression and a loss of trust from its allies. Uh, the bargaining power, uh, that Khun Niew asked just now, why it seems to have regressed so much this time, the bargaining power at the negotiation table reflects the performance on the battlefield, uh. It appears that in this war, the United States and Israel, who attacked Iran on February 28th, uh, almost completely failed to achieve their objectives, not even a single one, whether it was overthrowing Iran's government, destroying, uh, its nuclear program, destroying its missile system, or destroying Iran's alliance ties, uh. And what's worse, uh, it allowed Iran to use a powerful weapon, called economic nuclear power, which is the method of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which, in the end, incredibly, Khun Niew and viewers, the United States truly could not open it. The strait, they couldn't even think of using military force to open it. They, they thought, they thought it couldn't be done, right? What method could they use to open it? It couldn't be opened. Ultimately, they had to accept, uh, that it couldn't be opened, because when there's no way out, it must lead to, uh, negotiations. This means the United States was, uh, let's say, uh, pressured to come and, uh, negotiate with, with Iran, uh. [Inhales] Uh, and importantly, it's very interesting, uh, Khun Niew, that when signing the online document, right? Uh, the US side, Trump probably didn't understand the context of international political history. He went to sign at the Palace of Versailles, which, which there, is a symbol of surrender of the German side in World War I. Yes.
>> Uh, uh, yes, or maybe he was just chill, Professor? Not thinking too much, "It's okay, anywhere convenient."
>> Impossible, he is someone who, let's say, destroyed every convention of diplomacy in this world, until nothing good was left. [laughter]
>> Yes, yes, uh, if we look at the bright side, Professor, uh, negotiations have started, uh, the lifting of sanctions on Iran has been announced. How does this benefit Iran and how does this benefit the United States at this very moment?
>> Yes, we must consider the minimum bar, uh. This means that in the Middle East, uh, from past experiences of conflict, uh, we will see that, uh, few can reach a final agreement once the war is over, uh. Therefore, in the case of Iran and the United States, uh, I might look at the minimum bar first, what both parties gained. The rest, uh, if gained, is profit, uh. The minimum bar for both parties, uh, is for the United States side, the cessation of war, withdrawing troops home, preparing for elections, and, uh, opening the Strait of Hormuz for Iran, and for Iran to promise regarding nuclear weapons that there will be no nuclear weapons, which Iran has promised for a long time, uh. And, uh, for Iran's minimum bar, it is that at least, uh, there must be a cessation of war and for America to lift the blockade, uh, of the Strait of Hormuz as well, uh. And, uh, after that, it's profit. If, like today, there is talk of unlocking, uh, seized assets, allowing Iran to trade, buy and sell, uh, oil, this is, this is profit, uh, that will occur, uh. But now, looking at the advantages, uh, of these negotiations, uh, the fact that, uh, both America and Iran, uh, agreed to open, to allow Iran to be able to trade oil, or, let's say, temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil for at least 60 days, uh. And, uh, there will be, uh, an unlocking of various assets, uh. This is an advantage for both countries, uh. Any agreement that can be reached, uh, Khun Niew, means that the agreement benefits both parties, right? But if an agreement benefits one side and disadvantages the other, uh, the chance of discussing and agreeing, uh, is, is difficult, it's difficult, uh. Uh, lifting sanctions on Iran creates advantages for both sides in what way? It is by increasing the oil supply, uh, the crude oil supply in the world market, uh. [clears throat] The result is that the world oil price, uh, will decrease. When the world oil price decreases, uh, it will, uh, cause the inflation rate, which both America and many other countries are facing, uh, to also decrease. Trump's factor that led to the cessation of hostilities, I believe, the important factor, uh, comes from domestic politics, uh. The upcoming midterm elections in November, and, uh, the need to, uh, reduce the economic impact, energy prices in the United States, which caused inflation. After this, if it doesn't come down, it will cause a major economic crisis, uh, both in the United States and in the world. So it was forced to come down first, uh. Uh, therefore, the advantage is that for America, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, uh, helps reduce, uh, economic pressure in America itself. Oil prices decrease, right? Uh, inflation, uh, decreases. For Iran, uh, it is economic relief, uh. It can bring that income back to, uh, restore the country, which was severely damaged, uh, during the, uh, war, and reduce pressure, uh, from the sanctions, uh, that the United States has heavily imposed since canceling the JCPOA agreement, uh, in, uh, 2018, uh. That, uh, [clears throat] is what both sides will get, uh, from, uh, the, uh, agreement regarding, uh, the exemption, uh, of sanctions on Iranian oil. Yes.
>> Yes, uh, and before we talk about the risks, uh, let's first see how much hope there is in these 60 days. It seems that now there will be technical teams discussing each issue further, right, Professor? And regarding the, uh, unlocking of frozen funds, up to 12,000 million US dollars, do you think, Professor, that Iran will use it to restore its economy, restore its own country, right? Or will they actually agree to what Trump said, to use it to buy food, buy goods from the United States? Is that possible, Professor?
>> Yes, well, it will, uh, be urgent for Iran at this time to restore the country, uh, after the, uh, war, uh. But we have to see, ultimately, whether that money, uh, will force Iran to buy only American goods. Will Iran do it or not, uh? Uh, we need to look at the details, uh.
>> Yes.
>> Uh, uh, but, uh, at least, uh, it's a good direction. But how much money is it? 1, uh...
>> 12,000 million dollars, right?
>> 1.2,000, 2,000 million dollars, Khun Niew, and viewers, uh.
>> Uh, that is the money, Iran's assets that were frozen, which is Iran's foreign exchange reserves that were frozen in [clears throat] foreign banks, right? Iran wants that money back because its value is enormous, uh, this amount of money, uh.
>> Yes.
>> Uh, but now, if we look at the figures, if Iran can resume trading oil, uh, this...
>> Oh, yes. [laughter] It's even more than that, Professor. I have studied the figures, uh, uh, that, uh, if Iran can resume selling oil, uh...
>> Mm.
>> Uh, completely freely, uh, but certainly, in reality, there will be some obstacles, uh. This will give Iran an income, uh, of 3,500 to 4,500 million US dollars per month.
>> Right? Meaning...
>> Selling oil for 2-3 months, uh, would be equivalent to...
>> The assets that were seized.
>> Yes.
>> Mm.
>> So, uh, this is an incentive, uh, for Iran. Trump himself used a method called "give and take," right? Uh...
>> Uh, if Iran, uh, is to, uh, comply, or, uh, uh, build more trust, then, uh, the benefits, uh, are given to Iran so that Iran, uh, complies, right? Uh, uh, for Iran, it is, it is a good thing, uh, to be able to resume oil trade. But before that, before the war, uh, [inhales] Khun Niew, viewers, Iran could sell oil, uh, even though it was sanctioned by America, but it would sell to countries that dared to buy, uh.
>> What countries dared to buy? There's China, there's India, things like that.
>> But now, the price at which it was sold was a price that was forced below market price.
>> You understand, right, that there weren't many options? [laughter] Uh, it was necessary to agree, right? But if they can sell at market price, oh wow, that will give Iran, uh, enormous capital, uh, from, uh, trading, uh, oil after this, uh. And that might be an incentive, uh, that will make, uh, Iran, uh, let's say, uh, talk or negotiate on the remaining details, uh, of the agreement that came.
>> Yes, and what about the nuclear issue, Professor? J.D. Vance said that Iran has agreed and will allow the IAEA to inspect, but Iran itself also said that it's not yet, it must go through any parliamentary process. Do you think this issue will be a problem, Professor, because Trump already said that if they don't agree, then they will have to do what needs to be done?
>> Yes, the nuclear issue is very important because the United States, uh, cannot withdraw its troops home if Iran does not promise that it will not have nuclear weapons. You understand, right? They came to make a declaration when they came to wage war, they could declare that they came to destroy Iran's nuclear program, uh. But if there's nothing to go home with, they can't go home, uh. And, uh, this issue is not, not too difficult for Iran because why, uh? Because Iran has been saying for 10 years that it will not have nuclear weapons, but it was Trump who, uh, tried to say that Iran would have them, it was Israel that said Iran would have them. So, uh, for Iran, accepting this is not, not an issue that, uh, will be difficult, uh, that it will not have weapons. But now, uh, the process of inspection, uh, might, uh, take time. And finally, uh, Iran might say, "Okay, no nuclear weapons," but right now Iran has not signed the document yet, because Iran is using it as a card, using it as a card to pressure America, uh, on many issues, right? But they have verbally declared that they don't have them, they don't want to have nuclear weapons, uh. Ultimately, uh, I think that reaching the final destination, uh, having a clear nuclear agreement, uh, on how many percent Iran can enrich uranium, how much it will be reduced, uh, how, where, where it will be stored, uh, I still doubt if it will reach that point, uh, Khun Niew, uh.
But at a minimum, uh, if Iran, uh, has given a promise, uh, or in the document, that it will, uh, not possess, that alone is what the service, uh, considers, uh, can be used as a condition to go home, uh, for one thing, uh. And, uh, another thing, uh, regarding the, uh, nuclear agreement, uh, Khun Niew, if we look at the model of the JCPOA, uh, it took a very long time to draft, uh, because it is detailed work, uh, uh. So, uh, we might expect it to be finished in 60 days, uh, it might, it might not be that easy, uh. Uh, but one thing that might, uh, be possible, uh, after this, is the creation of a mechanism to come and inspect, uh, that will allow, for example, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, uh, to go in and inspect, uh, which is, uh, possible, uh, because it is a measure to build, uh, mutual trust, uh. But if it is to reach the stage of permanent disarmament, that there will be no nuclear weapons at all, then I think it is difficult, because Iran considers the issue of, uh, nuclear technology, uh, it must be separated between nuclear technology and nuclear weapons, right? Iran considers nuclear technology to be the sovereignty of the country to have in order to use for peaceful production, right? Uh, but it does not mean that they will have, uh, nuclear weapons, uh, uh. But even so, uh, today, this is what is called the failure of the United States, that ultimately, uh, it has almost no bargaining power to pressure Iran. At first, do you remember, uh, that Trump said during the war that Iran must no longer have nuclear technology, uh? And, uh, the enriched uranium, uh, must be stored in America or taken out of the country. Ultimately, in this agreement, nothing like that was mentioned, even to the point of accepting that, "Okay, if it's to be managed domestically, it's acceptable." This conveys that the bargaining power of the United States, uh, has greatly diminished, uh, in the matter of, uh, nuclear issues. But at least, uh, it is a good direction, uh, that, uh, will allow them to find a way out, uh, whether it is the Iranian side or the United States side.
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