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WELCOME BACK. WELCOME BACK. JOINING ME NOW IS RAY DALIO, JOINING ME NOW IS RAY DALIO, THE FOUNDER OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST THE FOUNDER OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST HEDGE FUND BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES. HEDGE FUND BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES. HE IS ALSO THE AUTHOR OF THE HE IS ALSO THE AUTHOR OF THE NEW BOOK "HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE." NEW BOOK "HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE." IT'S OUT IN JUNE. IT'S OUT IN JUNE. MR. DALIO, WELCOME TO "MEET THE MR. DALIO, WELCOME TO "MEET THE PRESS."
>> THANK YOU. GOOD TO BE HERE. GOOD TO BE HERE. JUST CALL ME RAY. JUST CALL ME RAY.
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RAY, I'LL TAKE YOU UP ON THAT. RAY, I'LL TAKE YOU UP ON THAT. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE. HERE. WE REALLY APPRECIATE THAT. WE REALLY APPRECIATE THAT. AS I SAID, YOU DID FOUND THE AS I SAID, YOU DID FOUND THE WORLD'S LARGEST HEDGE FUND. WORLD'S LARGEST HEDGE FUND. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE YOU IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF TO BE CONSIDER YOURSELF TO BE APOLITICAL, AND YOU SAY THAT THE APOLITICAL, AND YOU SAY THAT THE TARIFF PROBLEM IS A SYMPTOM OF A TARIFF PROBLEM IS A SYMPTOM OF A MUCH GREATER PROBLEM. MUCH GREATER PROBLEM. WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT? WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?
>> THERE'S A FINANCIAL PROBLEM. >> THERE'S A FINANCIAL PROBLEM. THERE'S AN IMBALANCE PROBLEM. THERE'S AN IMBALANCE PROBLEM. THERE ARE BASICALLY FIVE BIG THERE ARE BASICALLY FIVE BIG FORCES THROUGH HISTORY THAT FORCES THROUGH HISTORY THAT DRIVE EVERYTHING. DRIVE EVERYTHING. FIRST, THERE'S THE MONEY, FIRST, THERE'S THE MONEY, CREDIT, DEBT, ECONOMIC CYCLE IN CREDIT, DEBT, ECONOMIC CYCLE IN WHICH THERE'S A BUILDING UP OF WHICH THERE'S A BUILDING UP OF DEBT IN A CYCLICAL WAY THAT DEBT IN A CYCLICAL WAY THAT BECOMES TOO LARGE AND WE'RE BECOMES TOO LARGE AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE PROBLEMS. GOING TO HAVE PROBLEMS. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT DEBT PROBLEM AND MAYBE WE CAN DEBT PROBLEM AND MAYBE WE CAN GET INTO THIS. GET INTO THIS. THE SECOND BIG FORCE THROUGH THE SECOND BIG FORCE THROUGH TIME IS THE INTERNAL CONFLICT TIME IS THE INTERNAL CONFLICT FORCE, THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT, FORCE, THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT, DIFFERENCES IN WEALTH AND VALUES DIFFERENCES IN WEALTH AND VALUES CAUSING A CONFLICT THAT WE'RE CAUSING A CONFLICT THAT WE'RE SEEING IT CHANGING OUR POLITICAL SEEING IT CHANGING OUR POLITICAL ORDER. ORDER. SO THE FIRST IS CHANGING OUR SO THE FIRST IS CHANGING OUR MONETARY ORDER AND THE SECOND IS MONETARY ORDER AND THE SECOND IS CHANGING OUR POLITICAL ORDER CHANGING OUR POLITICAL ORDER INTO MORROWLY AND THEN THE GREAT INTO MORROWLY AND THEN THE GREAT WORLD ORDER. WORLD ORDER. HOW COUNTRIES DEAL WITH EACH HOW COUNTRIES DEAL WITH EACH OTHER, WHEN THERE IS A RIDING OTHER, WHEN THERE IS A RIDING POWER CHALLENGING THE EXISTING POWER CHALLENGING THE EXISTING POWER AND NOW WE'RE GOING FROM POWER AND NOW WE'RE GOING FROM MULTILATERALISM WHICH IS LARGELY MULTILATERALISM WHICH IS LARGELY AN AMERICAN WORLD ORDER TYPE OF AN AMERICAN WORLD ORDER TYPE OF THING TO A UNILATERAL WORLD THING TO A UNILATERAL WORLD ORDER IN WHICH IT'S GREAT ORDER IN WHICH IT'S GREAT CONFLICT AND THE OTHER TWO CONFLICT AND THE OTHER TWO FACTORS ALL THROUGH HISTORY HAVE FACTORS ALL THROUGH HISTORY HAVE BEEN ACTS OF NATURE, DOUBTS, BEEN ACTS OF NATURE, DOUBTS, FLOODS AND PANDEMICS AND NUMBER FLOODS AND PANDEMICS AND NUMBER FOUR IS TECHNOLOGY. FOUR IS TECHNOLOGY. TECHNOLOGY CHANGING AND HOW THEY TECHNOLOGY CHANGING AND HOW THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER ARE THE MAIN ARE COMING TOGETHER ARE THE MAIN FORCES BEHIND THIS. FORCES BEHIND THIS. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE CAN'T BE FOR EXAMPLE, THERE CAN'T BE IMBALANCES ANYMORE IN THAT IMBALANCES ANYMORE IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.
>> DO YOU THINK THAT PRESIDENT >> DO YOU THINK THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS ARE EXACERBATING TRUMP'S TARIFFS ARE EXACERBATING WHAT YOU ARE DESCRIBING? WHAT YOU ARE DESCRIBING? THIS COMPLICATED MIX OF THIS COMPLICATED MIX OF CHALLENGES THAT THE WORLD IS CHALLENGES THAT THE WORLD IS FACING?
>> I THINK IT'S JUST A FUNCTION >> I THINK IT'S JUST A FUNCTION OF HOW WELL THEY'RE HANDLED. OF HOW WELL THEY'RE HANDLED. YOU KNOW, IT'S A REALITY THAT YOU KNOW, IT'S A REALITY THAT IT'S A DESIRE TO BRING IN TAX IT'S A DESIRE TO BRING IN TAX REVENUE FROM THAT. REVENUE FROM THAT. IT'S A REALITY THAT WE WOULD IT'S A REALITY THAT WE WOULD LIKE TO BUILD MANUFACTURING AND LIKE TO BUILD MANUFACTURING AND JOBS HERE. JOBS HERE. THIS IS A REALITY THAT'S -- HOW THIS IS A REALITY THAT'S -- HOW THAT'S DONE, WHETHER THAT'S DONE THAT'S DONE, WHETHER THAT'S DONE IN A PRACTICAL WAY, WHETHER IN A PRACTICAL WAY, WHETHER THAT'S DONE IN A STABLE WAY, THAT'S DONE IN A STABLE WAY, WHETHER THAT'S DONE WITH QUALITY WHETHER THAT'S DONE WITH QUALITY NEGOTIATIONS IN WHICH THAT'S A NEGOTIATIONS IN WHICH THAT'S A MUTUAL PROBLEM OR WHETHER IT'S MUTUAL PROBLEM OR WHETHER IT'S DONE IN A CHAOTIC AND DISRUPTIVE DONE IN A CHAOTIC AND DISRUPTIVE WAY THAT PRODUCES GREAT CONFLICT WAY THAT PRODUCES GREAT CONFLICT MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD.
>> BASED ON WHAT YOU'RE SEEING >> BASED ON WHAT YOU'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW, DO YOU THINK THE RIGHT NOW, DO YOU THINK THE TARIFFS ARE BEING CARRIED OUT IN TARIFFS ARE BEING CARRIED OUT IN A PRACTICAL WAY OR A CHAOTIC A PRACTICAL WAY OR A CHAOTIC WAY? WAY?
>>>> SO FAR VERY DISRUPTIVE. >> SO FAR VERY DISRUPTIVE. SO FAR VERY DISRUPTIVE. SO FAR VERY DISRUPTIVE. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NUMBERS WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE, BUT THAT'S PART OF THE ARE, BUT THAT'S PART OF THE PROCESS. PROCESS. IT DEPENDS AT THE END OF THE 90 IT DEPENDS AT THE END OF THE 90 DAYS. DAYS. WHAT WAS PUT IN THERE IS LIKE WHAT WAS PUT IN THERE IS LIKE THROWING ROCKS INTO THE THROWING ROCKS INTO THE PRODUCTION SYSTEM AND THOSE PRODUCTION SYSTEM AND THOSE IMPACTS WOULD BE ENORMOUS IN IMPACTS WOULD BE ENORMOUS IN TERMS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE TERMS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE WHOLE WORLD, A GREAT COST. WHOLE WORLD, A GREAT COST.
>> WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT >> WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT SOMETHING THAT'S ON A LOT OF SOMETHING THAT'S ON A LOT OF PEOPLE'S MINDS. PEOPLE'S MINDS. YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR THE YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE, AND I WANT TO START WITH THE "R" FUTURE, AND I WANT TO START WITH THE "R" WORD. WORD. I KNOW YOU THINK THIS IS JUST A I KNOW YOU THINK THIS IS JUST A PIECE OF IT. PIECE OF IT. I'M TALKING ABOUT A RECESSION. I'M TALKING ABOUT A RECESSION. DO YOU THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT DO YOU THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL DIP INTO THE UNITED STATES WILL DIP INTO A RECESSION BECAUSE OF PRESIDENT A RECESSION BECAUSE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS? TRUMP'S TARIFFS?
>> I THINK THAT RIGHT NOW WE >> I THINK THAT RIGHT NOW WE ARE AT A DECISION-MAKING POINT AND ARE AT A DECISION-MAKING POINT AND VERY CLOSE TO A RECESSION, AND VERY CLOSE TO A RECESSION, AND I'M WORRIED ABOUT SOMETHING I'M WORRIED ABOUT SOMETHING WORSE THAN A RECESSION IF THIS WORSE THAN A RECESSION IF THIS ISN'T HANDLED WELL. ISN'T HANDLED WELL. A RECESSION IS TWO NEGATIVE A RECESSION IS TWO NEGATIVE QUARTERS OF GDP AND WHETHER IT QUARTERS OF GDP AND WHETHER IT GOES THERE. GOES THERE. WE ALWAYS HAVE THOSE THINGS. WE ALWAYS HAVE THOSE THINGS. WE HAVE SOMETHING THAT'S MUCH WE HAVE SOMETHING THAT'S MUCH MORE PROFOUND. MORE PROFOUND. WE HAVE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE WE HAVE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE MONETARY ORDER. MONETARY ORDER. WE ARE GOING TO CHANGE THE WE ARE GOING TO CHANGE THE MONETARY ORDER BECAUSE WE CANNOT MONETARY ORDER BECAUSE WE CANNOT SPEND THE AMOUNTS OF MONEY SO WE SPEND THE AMOUNTS OF MONEY SO WE HAVE THAT PROBLEM, AND WHEN WE HAVE THAT PROBLEM, AND WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE DOLLAR AND WE TALK ABOUT THE DOLLAR AND WE TALK ABOUT TARIFFS WE HAVE THAT. WE TALK ABOUT TARIFFS WE HAVE THAT. WE ARE HAVING A PROFOUND CHANGES WE ARE HAVING A PROFOUND CHANGES IN OUR DOMESTIC ORDER. IN OUR DOMESTIC ORDER. HOW RULING IS EXISTING AND WE'RE HOW RULING IS EXISTING AND WE'RE HAVING PROFOUND CHANGES IN THE HAVING PROFOUND CHANGES IN THE WORLD ORDER. WORLD ORDER. SUCH TIMES ARE VERY MUCH LIKE SUCH TIMES ARE VERY MUCH LIKE THE 1930S. THE 1930S. I'VE STUDIED HISTORY AND HISTORY I'VE STUDIED HISTORY AND HISTORY REPEATS OVER AND OVER AGAIN. REPEATS OVER AND OVER AGAIN. IF YOU TAKE TARIFFS, IF YOU TAKE IF YOU TAKE TARIFFS, IF YOU TAKE DEBT, AND THE RISING POWER WILL DEBT, AND THE RISING POWER WILL CHALLENGE THE EXISTING POWER CHALLENGE THE EXISTING POWER AND THOSE FACTORS THOSE CHANGES AND THOSE FACTORS THOSE CHANGES IN THE ORDERS, THE SYSTEMS ARE IN THE ORDERS, THE SYSTEMS ARE VERY, VERY DISRUPTIVE, HOW VERY, VERY DISRUPTIVE, HOW THAT'S HANDLED COULD PRODUCE THAT'S HANDLED COULD PRODUCE SOMETHING THAT'S MUCH WORSE THAN SOMETHING THAT'S MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION OR IT CAN BE HANDLED A RECESSION OR IT CAN BE HANDLED WELL. WELL. LET'S TAKE THE DEBT SITUATION.
>> YES.
>> I'M SORRY, GO AHEAD. >> I'M SORRY, GO AHEAD.
>> VERY QUICKLY BECAUSE I WANT >> VERY QUICKLY BECAUSE I WANT TO BE VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT WHAT TO BE VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT WHAT YOU MEAN. YOU MEAN. YOU'RE SAYING WORSE THAN YOU'RE SAYING WORSE THAN RECESSION? RECESSION? YOU ARE SAYING THIS IS YOU ARE SAYING THIS IS REMINISCENT OF THE 1930S. REMINISCENT OF THE 1930S. WE SHOULD TELL OUR VIEWERS YOU WE SHOULD TELL OUR VIEWERS YOU CORRECTLY PREDICTED THE 2008 CORRECTLY PREDICTED THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS. FINANCIAL CRISIS. WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR WHERE THE COUNTRY IS HEADED WHERE THE COUNTRY IS HEADED RIGHT NOW? RIGHT NOW?
>> RIGHT NOW WE'RE AT A >> RIGHT NOW WE'RE AT A JUNCTURE. JUNCTURE. LET'S TAKE THE BUDGET. LET'S TAKE THE BUDGET. IF THE BUDGET DEFICIT CAN BE IF THE BUDGET DEFICIT CAN BE REDUCED TO 3% OF GDP, IT WILL BE REDUCED TO 3% OF GDP, IT WILL BE ABOUT 7% IF THINGS ARE NOT ABOUT 7% IF THINGS ARE NOT CHANGED. CHANGED. IF IT CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3% IF IT CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3% OF GDP AND THESE TRADE DEFICITS OF GDP AND THESE TRADE DEFICITS AND SO ON, ARE MANAGED IN THE AND SO ON, ARE MANAGED IN THE RIGHT WAY, THIS COULD ALL BE RIGHT WAY, THIS COULD ALL BE MANAGED VERY WELL. MANAGED VERY WELL. I BELIEVE THAT MEMBERS OF I BELIEVE THAT MEMBERS OF CONGRESS SHOULD TAKE THE PLEDGE, CONGRESS SHOULD TAKE THE PLEDGE, WHAT I CALL THE 3% PLEDGE THAT WHAT I CALL THE 3% PLEDGE THAT IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER THAT THEY IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER THAT THEY WILL GET THAT BUDGET DEFICIT WILL GET THAT BUDGET DEFICIT DOWN TO THAT NUMBER. DOWN TO THAT NUMBER. IF THEY DON'T, WE'RE GOING HAVE IF THEY DON'T, WE'RE GOING HAVE A SUPPLY/DEMAND PROBLEM FOR DEBT A SUPPLY/DEMAND PROBLEM FOR DEBT AT THE SAME TIME AS WE HAVE AT THE SAME TIME AS WE HAVE THESE OTHER PROBLEMS AND THESE OTHER PROBLEMS AND THE RESULTS OF THAT WILL BE WORSE RESULTS OF THAT WILL BE WORSE THAN A NORMAL RECESSION. THAN A NORMAL RECESSION.
>> AND JUST TO FOLLOW UP ON THAT >> AND JUST TO FOLLOW UP ON THAT POINT. POINT. WORSE THAN A RECESSION. WORSE THAN A RECESSION. YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE 1930S. YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE 1930S. WHAT, SPECIFICALLY, ARE YOU WHAT, SPECIFICALLY, ARE YOU WARNING OF? WARNING OF? ARE YOU SAYING IT COULD BE AS ARE YOU SAYING IT COULD BE AS BAD AS A DEPRESSION? BAD AS A DEPRESSION? WHAT'S YOUR BIGGEST FEAR? WHAT'S YOUR BIGGEST FEAR?
>> THE VALUE OF MONEY. >> THE VALUE OF MONEY. WHAT IS A STORE HOLD OF WEIGHT? WHAT IS A STORE HOLD OF WEIGHT? THAT IS A BOND. THAT IS A BOND. IN OTHER WORDS, ONE MAN'S DEBT IN OTHER WORDS, ONE MAN'S DEBT IS ANOTHER MAN'S ASSETS, IS ANOTHER MAN'S ASSETS, BONDHOLDERS, AND SO WE'RE GOING BONDHOLDERS, AND SO WE'RE GOING TO BE IN A SITUATION WHERE IF TO BE IN A SITUATION WHERE IF THAT STORE HOLD OF WEALTH IS IN THAT STORE HOLD OF WEALTH IS IN JEOPARDY BECAUSE THERE'S TOO JEOPARDY BECAUSE THERE'S TOO MUCH SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND SO MUCH SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND SO ON, AND WE HAVE A MONETARY ON, AND WE HAVE A MONETARY INFLATION. INFLATION. WE WILL HAVE GREAT DISRUPTIONS, WE WILL HAVE GREAT DISRUPTIONS, AND THAT COULD BE LIKE THE AND THAT COULD BE LIKE THE BREAKDOWN OF MONETARY SYSTEM OF BREAKDOWN OF MONETARY SYSTEM OF '71, IT COULD BE LIKE 2008. '71, IT COULD BE LIKE 2008. IT COULD BE VERY SEVERE, I THINK IT COULD BE VERY SEVERE, I THINK IT COULD BE MORE SEVERE THAN IT COULD BE MORE SEVERE THAN THOSE IF THESE OTHER MATTERS THOSE IF THESE OTHER MATTERS SIMULTANEOUSLY OCCUR. SIMULTANEOUSLY OCCUR. IMAGINE IF WE HAVE A DOWNTURN, IMAGINE IF WE HAVE A DOWNTURN, POLITICALLY AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICALLY AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT? CONFLICT?
>> WHAT'S WORST-CASE SCENARIO >> WHAT'S WORST-CASE SCENARIO THAT YOU'RE WARNING OF TO BE THAT YOU'RE WARNING OF TO BE VERY SPECIFIC SO PEOPLE CAN VERY SPECIFIC SO PEOPLE CAN UNDERSTAND. UNDERSTAND.
>> TO BE VERY SPECIFIC, THE >> TO BE VERY SPECIFIC, THE VALUE OF MONEY, INTERNAL VALUE OF MONEY, INTERNAL CONFLICT THAT IS NOT THE NORMAL CONFLICT THAT IS NOT THE NORMAL DEMOCRACY AS WE KNOW IT, AND DEMOCRACY AS WE KNOW IT, AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT IN A WAY INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT IN A WAY THAT IS HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE TO THE THAT IS HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE TO THE WORLD ECONOMY AND COULD EVEN BE WORLD ECONOMY AND COULD EVEN BE A MILITARY CONFLICT, JUST AS A MILITARY CONFLICT, JUST AS THESE BREAKDOWNS HAVE OCCURRED THESE BREAKDOWNS HAVE OCCURRED BEFORE. BEFORE. WE HAVE A NEW ORDER THAT BEGAN WE HAVE A NEW ORDER THAT BEGAN IN 1945, A NEW MONETARY ORDER IN 1945, A NEW MONETARY ORDER AND A NEW GEOPOLITICAL ORDER AND AND A NEW GEOPOLITICAL ORDER AND THESE GO IN CYCLES THAT CAN BE THESE GO IN CYCLES THAT CAN BE MEASURED, AND I WORRY ABOUT THE MEASURED, AND I WORRY ABOUT THE BREAKDOWN OF THAT KIND OF ORDER BREAKDOWN OF THAT KIND OF ORDER PARTICULARLY SINCE IT DOESN'T PARTICULARLY SINCE IT DOESN'T NEED TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THERE NEED TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS THAT CAN BE ARE CERTAIN THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE IN WHICH THIS IS BETTER -- A DONE IN WHICH THIS IS BETTER -- A BETTER RESTRUCTURING OF THESE BETTER RESTRUCTURING OF THESE DEBTS AND ACTIONS. DEBTS AND ACTIONS.
>> THAT TAKES ME TO MY NEXT >> THAT TAKES ME TO MY NEXT QUESTION, YOU HAVE THIS BOOK, QUESTION, YOU HAVE THIS BOOK, "HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE," THE "HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE," THE BIG CYCLE, WHAT IS THE SOLUTION BIG CYCLE, WHAT IS THE SOLUTION HERE? HERE?
>> WELL, THERE ARE A SERIES OF >> WELL, THERE ARE A SERIES OF SOLUTIONS, BUT LET'S TAKE THE SOLUTIONS, BUT LET'S TAKE THE MOST IMPORTANT. MOST IMPORTANT.
>> AND WE HAVE ONE MINUTE. >> AND WE HAVE ONE MINUTE.
>> ONE MINUTE. >> ONE MINUTE. OKAY. OKAY. 3% OF GDP, BRING THAT DEFICIT 3% OF GDP, BRING THAT DEFICIT DOWN. DOWN. IT CAN BE DONE IN A BIPARTISAN IT CAN BE DONE IN A BIPARTISAN WAY THE WAY IT WAS DONE BETWEEN WAY THE WAY IT WAS DONE BETWEEN 1991 AND '98, DOING THINGS 1991 AND '98, DOING THINGS TOGETHER FOR THE GREATER GOOD TOGETHER FOR THE GREATER GOOD AND INTERNATIONALLY ON ALL OF AND INTERNATIONALLY ON ALL OF THESE ISSUES TO USE AMERICAN THESE ISSUES TO USE AMERICAN STRENGTH, BUT TO NEGOTIATE WELL, STRENGTH, BUT TO NEGOTIATE WELL, TO LAY OUT WAYS IN WHICH BAD TO LAY OUT WAYS IN WHICH BAD CONFLICT AND INEFFICIENT CONFLICT AND INEFFICIENT POLICIES DON'T CREATE GREAT POLICIES DON'T CREATE GREAT DISRUPTIONS, BUT GET US THROUGH DISRUPTIONS, BUT GET US THROUGH THIS IN AN ORDERLY WAY. THIS IN AN ORDERLY WAY.
>> RAY DALIO, THANK YOU SO MUCH. >> RAY DALIO, THANK YOU SO MUCH. YOUR BOOK "HOW COUNTRIES GO