Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are feeling great. I am very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Tuesday, November 11, 2025, facing a crypto market that is a little red, unfortunately, today. It's a shame, it's correcting, while the dollar, look, it's also making a nice red candle. Usually, we are inversely correlated with the dollar, but it's not day by day. We know that if the dollar starts to fall, fall, fall, it's rather good news for us. After that, it takes its time, it's not just inversely correlated day by day. And if we look at the stock market, well, we have Nvidia taking a big hit. We have the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq that are slightly in the red. So today, pretty much everyone is in the red, cryptos a bit more so. And the mind-blowing thing is that yesterday, regarding ETFs, only 1.20 million in purchases by Bitwise for Bitcoin, and Ethereum ETFs, nothing. The rest, look, it was zero, absolutely nothing. Well, the market is still in fear. It's normal, altcoins today are still being rejected by the 200-day moving average here around 734 billion dollars. Anyway, we've been talking about it for the past few days, this structure, this bullish channel, it doesn't smell good. As long as we stay in this type of channel, the next thing, boom, will be a descent. But for now, I'd like to come back to two things. There are two different styles of bullish channels. You have the first one, you have an impulse, then the correction, and boom, you fall. And that, that's internal to the wave. So all of that is one same wave, a violent wave, an A or a C wave, a wave that dips a bit, if you like. Well, and then you have the second scenario, I'll do it next to it, it's you still have the same wave, you see the same here. However, instead of just having a small internal B to push, you start to have something that lasts. And that's good news because that's wave B, wave A, and so all that's missing is C, and then you start again, whereas here you are still in wave A, if you like. And so that means you have to wait for wave B that comes after, then wave C. And so on the left, you have a corrective structure that is much bigger and much longer than what's on the right. There you go. And why am I talking about this? You're going to tell me, Foufi, why are you talking about this? I was going to say, just like that, for fun. I'm talking about this in relation to what we have here. Okay? It's that at the beginning, we had this impulse. If we had a small correction to fall here, it would be a bit ugly, you see. But here, we're starting to have something that's dragging on, dragging on, dragging on. And that's good news. That would mean that potentially we could have a drop, but it could be the last bearish wave before starting again. You see, something like that. You'll see on Bitcoin, it's a bit cleaner because the structure itself, for example, for altcoins, it's been weeks and weeks and weeks that they've been telling us, "Well, I have to break this low. Since I haven't broken the high, it's rather here, even the high, the high here, or 930 billion dollars. Well, I'll break the low for a regular. For an A, for a B, well, for a C, you see. Well, that's kind of the idea. So we'll see. Well, if the structure validates itself, well, it will validate. It will break this low, and we'll have finished a regular to start again. Well, so we're paying attention to this style that could put in a lower low, but the fact that it's dragging on means that it would surely be the last bearish wave. There you go, that's kind of the idea. It's good news that it's dragging on. Well, so being rejected by the moving average is not surprising at all. We have the bulls whose momentum is starting to be a bit weak. Well, so it's not a big celebration, but well, it was normal, especially for Bitcoin. Why do I say it was normal? It's not surprising because Bitcoin yesterday, you see, we were doing well yesterday, we were at 106,000, we were happy, but we don't forget that there was this gap to fill at $104,200. The gap that was created between the chart on futures contracts on Friday when they all go into the weekend and click, the price stops for them, you see, on the CME, and we are here 24/7. So when they arrive on Monday, they open, oh, look, the price is at 100,000. Except they have a small gap, a small hole that is filled. Well, to add liquidity there. And so in short, well, I wasn't surprised to go and get the 50,000. So the gap is closed. So I'll remove it. Okay. Gap at 100, at 104,000 closed. Now we are still in this bullish structure style, a small channel that has a higher probability of falling. But what's good is that it's been dragging on, dragging on, dragging on, dragging on. So that means potentially we could have one last small wave, and that would be the last one before starting again. Because the fact that it's dragging on, dragging on, dragging on, dragging on, means that you're actually a small B. That means before that you had a small A, and so you're doing a small C which will be a structure to start again. So that's good news. That's good news, and as I was telling you, bad news is you fall, you make a small channel, you fall again, and then you don't know how far you're going to fall. You can make a channel, you fall, and you see wave A, wow, the wave that is an impulse wave, it can really dip. Whereas when you really have something that drags on, drags on, drags on, drags on, drags on, then it becomes a real wave B of that wave A. So all that's missing is C, and then you start again, whereas here you don't know where the end is yet. You fall, you correct, you fall, you correct. You see, it can be big. And then you have to wait for B later, then C, it takes 107 years. Well, and so it's good news to see that it's dragging on. It doesn't mean there won't be a bearish wave. It just means that the bearish wave will surely be the last one before starting again. Now, it can aim for 92,000, but in any case, it's rather good that it's been dragging on here, you see, on this channel. I find it good, in any case. Well, and besides, it's not over. I mean, it's not like it has to fall now, even if there's a strong probability, it could drag on even longer because we see that soon the bulls will regain some momentum. So why do I say be careful? For two reasons, same analysis as yesterday and the day before. First reason is the structure that tells us it has a higher probability of falling, and the second reason I'll show you here is the futures. Well, the futures, the balance is starting to lean more and more towards correction as well. Now, we knew that there would be a small, another small bearish wave, but why now? Because we see that the longs are closing more and more. Already yesterday, yesterday there were many fewer longs open, okay? And the shorts, sorry, the shorts were starting to close a lot. Why? Because on Sunday we have two big news, the shutdown that will end, and the $2,000 that Trump said he wants to give to everyone. With these two big news, well, many people closed their shorts, and so of course the longs were placed. The longs were placed, and since then, since Sunday, we had a green Sunday, a green Monday, well, the longs benefited greatly, thinking "It's off to the moon." The problem is now it has accumulated well in the south up to around $95,000. So now the balance is leaning more towards going south to look for longs for the futures. For the structure, the balance is leaning a bit more south to validate that. You see, simply. So that's why you shouldn't be surprised to see it inch down, inch down. It could stop at 95,000, why not, but since the gap is right next door at 92, well, it could aim for 92 as well, unfortunately. Well, regarding Ethereum, same thing, exactly the same thing. We had a gap to fill yesterday at 3485. I put the little J, we went to fill it today. Hop, there you go. So, I'll remove it. Good news. And Ethereum, it's exactly the same. So now, the fact that it's dragging on, dragging on, is good news. That means that there will also be the bearish wave, but it means that we will surely make a small regular, with a high probability of making a small regular within the large regular. And that's good news. You see, you have A, you have B, you have C, and then to finish, you make a small regular, well, that further increases the probabilities of pushing higher. You see, it doubles the probability of pushing afterwards. So, I find it rather good that it's dragging on. And like Bitcoin, the first scenario that makes it more probable to fall, well, it's the structure, and first, not first scenario but first, important thing, and second important thing that we're going to fall, it's the futures too. There are many more longs that have been placed in the last two days, and since the two bonuses fell, the shorts have calmed down a bit. So, you see that Ethereum could make a trip towards $3,000, and anyway, it's like Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes to 95, 94, it will go to 92. If Ethereum falls towards $3,000, it will go to 2853 to close the gap. I'd say let's close the gap. Okay, one last little wave that dips, we hold on tight. The DCA is still there, and then we close the gaps, and we don't talk about it anymore, you see. Well, on the other hand, there are the bulls who should come back, you see, on the MACD, either Bitcoin or soon a bullish crossover on the MACD. However, if the bulls act like they are now, they won't do anything, you see, that's kind of the idea. Well, so it's also, still not very, very pretty. Higher probability, unfortunately, of falling, whether it's for this small structure here or for the futures like Bitcoin. Solana, exactly the same thing. At least it's good, everyone agrees. Anyway, you see here the bearish channel, no, bullish channel, sorry, which is rather bearish. That's not great. Here, you see it clearly on the structure. So that's not good. Impulse, correction, continuation. However, yes, I know I'm repeating myself, but it's good that it's dragging on here. It's good. It means we can finish with a regular with one last small bearish wave. There you go. If you ask me, Foufou, okay, I choose a scenario. What is yours? Well, it's this one. It's one last small wave C of this regular. And when it's finished with this small A, small BC, it has pushed, it has validated the large regular even more. There you go, this will be the small regular that will give a kick to the market's QQ to push and validate the large regular. That's what I think right now. So, I clearly expect that well, it will fall a bit more. For Solana, it's the same regarding liquidity. Well, although it's a bit less pronounced, you still have a lot of longs placed. It's almost a tie, you see, north and south. So these longs, well, I think it will go and get them, whether it's here with the structure. And well, after that, we can see that the bulls will arrive soon. So what would be good? Well, that it drags on even more. That it drags on even more will be good news. It will tell us yes, that it will still fall, but it will rather be a drop for a regular. I like the fact that it's dragging on. It's rather good news. It means you buy cheaper. That's especially the idea regarding XRP. Well, for him, pretty much the same thing. Same, this small bullish channel that tells us a higher probability of falling like Bitcoin, Solana, and regarding liquidity, there's a bit more in the south, you see, in the north, there's almost 300, while in the south, rather around 200. And so, like everyone else, the bullish crossover on the MACD has already happened, but you see that it's in the red. So XRP, well, you'll have to expect, like everyone else, the small C to validate perhaps one last small regular to start again. Anyway, it will be difficult to pass this resistance duo between the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average on XRP prices over the last 200 and 50 days around $60, it will be tough. Well, no, for now, not yet bullish, unfortunately, and what I see in front of me, maybe I'm the one who needs to change my glasses. Personally, I expect a last small bearish wave that could have been a big one because if we had fallen directly here, boom, we could have continued, you see. Whereas the fact that it's here, it doesn't mean it can't do something, in fact, it reduces the probabilities, the fact that it's dragging on, of possibly having the weekly C, because the fact that it's dragging on here, you have less probability of falling to reach 80,000, if you like. You can't do small A, small B. Ah, the small C that goes to hell. No. So the fact that it's dragging on, dragging on, is very good news because we might just validate the scenario, just validate this large regular instead of doing the big weekly C that could aim for 80,000. You see what I mean, you see the big running rather weekly that will dip. Well, regarding the stock market, well, today it's a bit choppy, especially on the US side. Nvidia -3.63% right now, that's exactly what it's doing. Apple +1%, we have -2% on Tesla. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly in the red, but it's not catastrophic. Europe, they are doing rather well. Still about a 2/3 probability of a rate cut for December 10th. But we'll see, because the shutdown should end any day now, if you like. The government should restart any day now. We have a lot of figures coming out. The most important figures are inflation figures, employment figures. They will guide the direction the US central bank will take regarding rates. And so that's what will completely influence the markets. So for now, I think that the markets are doing a bit of green because we are still in the good news that the shutdown should end. That's why we still have the S&P 500 and Nasdaq that pushed well yesterday and are holding their levels. Dow Jones is pushing well. Look at the Eurostoxx, it's exploding. It's very nice. For now, there's no big "buy the rumor," which is rather good news. People are a bit on the defensive, so that means we won't have a big "sell the news." Well, gold is doing nothing today. Well, silver, same, we have the barrel doing a bit of green, nothing special. Oil continues to rise. Regarding crypto stocks, they are correcting a bit like Bitcoin, not very pretty, or Block, they took a hit, oh dear, because they also showed not very pretty figures in their balance sheets. Regarding US Treasuries, they are buying a bit, and selling the dollar. The good news is this, that the dollar is falling a bit. Especially since the dollar is perhaps making a small channel that could break downwards, and so that would be good news, that the dollar breaks downwards. We, okay, we'll do our last little, our last little bearish wave, which will be, in my opinion, a small, well, when I say small, I mean 92, you see, not 80, and then we'll start again with a very weak dollar. That would be not bad. Well, we'll see. In any case, for now, no surprise. It's following the small evolution calmly. I think it's likely to dip a bit more, unfortunately. Just keep being strong. I'm sending kisses. Big up, and we'll talk again soon. Bye bye. [Music]