Transcription
Welcome to the Met Favor Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better investing starts here.
Met Faber is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Camry Investment Management. Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Camry's funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Camri Investment Management or its affiliates. For more information, visit cambrianvestments.com.
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Welcome back everybody. Today we're joined by Mark Fabber, editor of the Gloomboom and Doom Report. Mark, welcome back to the show.
Well, thank you very much for having me and I wish all your viewers and listeners a successful new year.
Yeah, as well we have you in Thailand, me here in Los Angeles. How's life, man? Last time we talked to you, it was COVID period. Weird period here. Weird period everywhere, not just in the world, but also markets. You know, we've had this romping, stomping bulls since then. Things always going a little crazy. How's life? How's things for you?
Well, you say it used to be during COVID crazy. It's still crazy. Now we have all kinds of aggressive moves by world powers and I'm afraid it may not end so well. And uh since we talked many u markets have gone ballistic. I mean many assets have gone up substantially in price and others have gone down. And so there were big movements in the markets to make money. I mean let's say when we last talked uh nobody was interested in precious metals. This has changed. I'm not saying that all you viewers should rush out and buy gold and silver and platinum but uh this has been a big change over the last two years. the outperformance of precious metals against financial assets.
In one of your pieces you said uh I was reading and I loved it but you were talking about you might be you know joking a little bit but you were saying you know it's been such a good time particularly in in US equities and a lot of stuff out there is pricey. we say maybe I should seriously ponder the strategy, how do I lose the least money in 2026? Tell us a little bit about what led into that thought and what do what do you mean by that?
I'm an economist and I studied uh economics but I wrote the thesis about mostly fiscal and financial policy fiscal and monetary policy and financial reforms in the 19th century and uh I mean I have to say I'm sort of surprised is how much money I certainly have. It's hard to believe. You know that you have a stock portfolio and uh you have a portfolio of precious metals and suddenly the value goes up that much and then you say to yourself the wealth inequality has grown dramatically because I worked since 1970 and therefore I always had savings and surplus income. had more income than I used and therefore I have assets and these assets have gone up a lot in value and I'm thinking about the 50% of Americans that have no assets or if you look at the global population most people have nothing. I live here in Thailand in the north. I see it every day. There are people they go to bed, they have maybe $100 in total wells, you know. I mean, it's really in some cases heartbreaking. But I was fortunate and therefore I have assets. Although I as a social observer, as an economic historian, as an economist and also as a sort of political philosopher, I have to say that the system is rotten because in a society basically you want to be a society like the US in the 19th century. Why did people want to go to the US in the first place? Because the opportunities were so much better in America than in Europe. So they all fled to the US and went to the US not because of social security, not because of all kinds of benefits. They went because if they worked hard they could improve their lives which was not a given in Europe. So went to the US the population of the US grew from 4 million in 1800 to 80 million in 1900 and there was no inflation. Why there was no inflation? Very simple. There were no stupid economists and central bankers that destroyed the economic system through interventions which they have no clue about. The prime in example of interventions without any clue is Mr. Trump. He's a clueless interventionist. I would have voted for him any time compared to say Camala Harris and Mr. uh Bush. But he's an ignorant interventionist that is dangerous. But anyway, I what I wanted to say is so you know I look at my the southern wealth because assets went up and I say to myself, can it go on forever? No. Now you will say, Mark, we talked about this already 10 years ago and you said it won't go on forever and it's still going on. and I would respond, "Yes, you're right. I started to work in 1970. In 71, Nixon went off the gold standard and inflation picked up and then in around 1980, I met the strategist at Mary Lynch. They all said a debt collapse is going to happen soon." These were the famous strategists Dan Salvixson and Ironstein, Mike Aronstein and Charlie Mter and they predicted that the whole debt system in America would collapse by the end of the 80s. Well, we had a crash in ' 87, but uh it's remarkable how the system held together, especially, you know, I I predicted the 82nd crash. I accidentally it happened the next day. Anyway, but then one of my major predictions was the collapse of the Japanese stock market. So 89 Japan was more than 50% of the world's stock market capitalization and my view was that if Japan would go down it would affect other markets. Yes, it affected the money flowed out of Japan into other markets and they performed well like the NASDAQ and so you know when you look at predictions a lot of things happen but the impact is different than what you thought a collapse in NASDAQ stocks now in the MAX 7 which are in a bubble stage very clearly the valuations are skyhigh high and semiconductors as well and so forth and then we could have other markets going up. It's like last year foreign markets, European markets, almost all European markets outperformed the US emerging markets Brazil in dollar terms because the dollar was weak. In dollar terms, Brazil was up almost 50%. And in Asia, we had a similar situation. and some markets went up 40%.
There's a stat that I was telling people recently and I said, "You're not going to believe this in dollar terms, but European banks have outperformed the MAG 7 over the last one, but also the last 5 years." And the same thing for kind of a deep value global approach. So value stocks globally have been outperforming the US MAG7 for 1, 3, and 5 years now. Nobody believes that. So very quietly, you know, people are still focused cuz the S&P just goes up 15 20% every year, but underneath the surface, you start to have this sort of right tail of so many other assets appreciating. There's a couple things I wanted to touch on. You you hit on, you know, the psychology and economics. I thought you might like the old or excuse me, the recent Scott Bessant quote where he said, "The Fed has turned into universal basic income for PhD economists." I thought that was a great quote. Um, but you know, you highlight in your recent gloom boom doom report an interesting setup, two things, which is, you know, you got these markets at all-time highs. By the time this publishes, I might be wearing a Dow 50,000 hat. You know, that might probably will have happened. But you have this weird setup, you know, particularly I'd love to hear your thoughts. University of Michigan consumer sentiment is just in the tank now. Do you think that's something that is like changed because of the way the surveys are? Is people are people miserable because of social media? You would think that you know inflation is kind of moderate but things seem to be going well in the economy. Why why is everyone so miserable? What's so they just need to have a few more whisies? What's the story?
One of the most complex issues to understand for people and as a phenomenon is the price movement in the world because many prices don't move up over the long term but if you print money prices will go up. The problem is that the price movement, the upward movement is very irregular. So this was already observed by Nicholas Copernicus that when you increase the quantity of money, prices do not go up evenly like this but they go up in one corner of the economy and then in another corner and then here and so forth. So in practical terms, in economic terms, we could say that occasionally commodity prices go up and occasionally real estate prices go up and occasionally stocks go up and occasionally bonds go up and occasionally food prices. and what you consume goes up at the department store or in the supermarket. Now, the thing is this, wages also tend to go up, but wages sometimes go up more than food prices and your cost of living. And what then happens is that the real incomes increase. Say during the black plague of the 14th 15th century in Europe the population was significantly reduced. The impact on this reduction of population was that real wages went up because there was a shortage of labor and uh the price level in a depression like the great plague is not existent. Prices go down. So the workers were better off. The same occurred in America in the 19th century between 1873 and 1900. Real wages went up. But lately say if you compare your lifestyle to your parents' lifestyle for most young people the problem is one of affordability. Because if I look at say statistics in the 70s with my salary, I could paid any rent with no problem because the salary was relatively high and the real estate was relatively low and with my salary I could buy say with 25 hours of work the one Dow Jones now I need maybe 150 hours of work. I don't know. But you understand the problem nowadays is that people like me, financial people take it the money printing first. The money printing the flow comes into the financial sector first and we can then take a commission out of it. That's why Wall Street will never criticize the Federal Reserve. They want money printing because as money is being printed, asset prices go up and Wall Street earns more money. That is the reason and that is the reason we have money printing because the money printing benefits a few people that control the waterflow of money into the system and so they become rich. But the majority of people and we have service you know who lives paycheck by paycheck who can live at the end of the month needs the paycheck to pay his bills 70% of Americans they need they live paycheck to pay paycheck and this is not a healthy system and it will lead this increase in wealth inequality will lead to social problems is inevitable. The question is when as I said I would have said already fe 40 years ago that it will lead to problems and so far it hasn't but I think now a condition has changed and I want to explain this very thoroughly. You see in the past when you printed money then stocks went up or property prices went up and so forth and so on. Now if you print money these assets also go up but a sound currency goes up much more. Or I could turn around this proposition and say if you print money, the purchasing power of money goes down, okay, against say a house, against the a Dow Jones, against the medical bill and so forth and so on. But the sound currency's purchasing power doesn't go down or or remain stable. So nowadays if you print money what happens the price of silver go ballistic and gold and platinum and other prices also go up but they go up more less than the price of the sound currency and then you could say well in this case the dollar will go down. The dollar may not go down much because the other currencies are also so bad. There may I mean in Venezuela the currency went down more than the US dollar because the president was even worse than what we have in the western world. Although I have to say I'm very disappointed because when I grew up at school and at university and at home, people always said, "Oh, democracy is the best system." When I look at the leaders of the free world, so-called free world in Europe and in the US, I don't think that democracy is the best system. I I I believe democracy is the best system in the sense of the old Greek system where few people can vote. Not every uneducated person.
Well, you know, you hit on one of the key I feel like friction points of our time and I I spent a lot of time kind of noodling on this topic. You had a couple great quotes in your piece about compounding. You know, you got one from Ben Graham, the magic of compounding returns is the biggest mathematical discovery of all time. One from Bogle, enjoy the magic of compounding returns. Even modest investments made in one's ears are likely to grow to staggering amounts over the course of a lifetime. And this concept, I think, is is true. You know, you start to work through the math on on this idea of being the o you have to be an owner almost in in modern times, you know, and you see very real emotional, psychological differences between people of different generations, people of different countries, people that have lived through different bull and bare markets. I had a tweet last night where JP Morgan puts out their quarterly market update and they had a chart that was going back to the 1980s of global market cap by country. And I said, imagine 40 years ago predicting that Japan would go from 30 40% of market cap to five and the US would go from 30 to 64. I was like, what what do you think the future holds the next 40 years? And of course, you got all sorts of crazy responses, but it's interesting how big of a shift that is. You know, I don't know many people that might have predicted that. If they did, they only had to make one decision. You just buy US stocks 40 years ago, sell your Japanese stocks and and be done with it. But it's fun because because today the US is essentially twothirds of world market cap and the second biggest country is a factor of 10 less. You know, you have regions like Europe and emerging markets that maybe are 10%, but Japan is is almost an afterthought of this. I mean, I think their stocks look great now, but but 30 30 40 years later, one of the things that you mentioned in your pieces, you know, there's an asset class that has gotten somewhat obliterated the last handful of years, and it's a little bit hidden because, you know, bonds in general struggle, you know, on a on a real basis after inflation, not just on a nominal basis, but real. And you mentioned after for many of these long-term bonds 40 50% decline some of these might be might be interesting at this point. You want to tell us about you thinking treasuries also there's a great chart and Kobe will add these later hopefully but there's a great chart you had on bonds being underowned. you know, people investor asset allocations bonds being not a big part of the portfolio in line with look what is this 07 and late 90s I don't know what happened back then but that wasn't a good time for the equity side tell us a little bit about that idea
Well, I mean there are periods and I just looked today at the chart of the 10 years Japanese bond do you know what the yield was in 1990 of the 10-year Japanese bond.
I don't.
7%.
Wow.
This is a remarkable thing if in financial history you have the stock market in Japan being the largest stock market by market cap in 1989. I mean the peak was December 31st, 1989. Then the market start to go down and as you said uh the market cap was over 50% of the world and it it went down to like less than 5% now and then at the same time interest rates went down and you had in history one of the biggest bull markets in bond prices. I mean the 10 years went to almost 0%. It is remarkable. I was also in the US in May 2020. The low for the 10 years US Treasury was 0.57%. We're now at 4% something. And this is something investors should think about. What will interest rates do in the US? Because I give you two scenarios. One scenario would argue bond prices will rally because the economy will be bad and so forth and because the Fed under Trump will print money. Okay, this is a scenario in my view. This scenario is possible but only this is the precondition only if the economy is slumping. I mean that you need a big downturn in economic activity and even then there are some question marks because the debt level in the US is so some people will wonder I mean how can the US pay the interest and how can they pay the debt in the long run but let's assume the economy is very bad and there's a flight to safety so people take money out of stocks which are in the sky and buy bonds which are underowned and at the lower end. I'm not saying very cheap but a lower end. The other scenario is that interest rates go up. Why would they go up? Because the money printing by the Trump administration and it goes lift the rate of price increases dramatically and as a result interest rates uh the long end which the Fed the Fed doesn't control all interest rates. They control the Fed fund rate, but the other interest rates, they don't really control that. The long rates go up and create a huge problem. I mean, equity prices and home prices will collapse if interest rates go up substantially. Collapse I have to define against what? Because in nominal terms, it is conceivable that your Dow Jones goes to 100,000, but that the dollar loses its value by 90% against a stable currency, which I would consider to be gold, silver, and platinum, not cryptos, and not stable coins with a stamp of Trump on But I wouldn't buy I I might buy it as a collector's item.
I was uh a big proponent. They they have a new initiative. I don't know if you saw in the US where they're starting to seed some all the children born in the US with a investment account and put I think a,000 bucks in it and people can match it. And it's to me a really interesting idea less so from the amount of money and more just the concept of hey we're trying to on birth stamp you know these kids with this idea of this concept of being an owner participating in a capitalistic society investing in companies and you know if if he didn't have to name them Trump accounts I mean my goodness I'm like can you just name it something else like the original title was invest America invest blah blah blah But he's got stamp the Trump name on it. But it'll be a fun experiment to watch.
I want to tell you the outcome because I have helped numerous poor people. The first minor storm that occurs after they received say the sort of money that you are talking about and I gave people much more. The first is they sell it. Yeah.
You can give to someone a coin of gold worth say $10,000 or what not. Uh they have a slight problem either with their children or the parents or what not, they give it away.
Yeah. Well, the the one upside is at least you're I think locked in till you're 18 and then I think it turns into a somewhat of a limited amount of things you can do with it. But I imagine that certainly will be the case once you once you hit adulthood that it's probably going to get spent.
I mean I want to tell you one thing in in history of mankind there is one constant from 5,000 years BC up to today. And this constant is that wealthy people have never ever helped poor people. There was always some benefit for the upper class or the upper class sooner or later did benefit from what they gave away. It's like you give food stamps then the people go to Walmart and the profits of Walmart go up or you there was in history repeated land redistribution where they took the land from the rich people and gave it to everybody within a few years it was again in the hands of the rich people. It's very simple whereby there was occasionally you know periods where the rich people changed there sometimes the rich people were the real estate owner and I want to mention this in the context of another issue you know when we talk about price increases and so forth the general belief and that's why I say we should prepare for the period during which prices no longer go But nowadays everybody thinks prices always go up and they always say in the long run real estate goes up. That is to some extent true but not absolutely because since 2018 residential real estate prices have continued to go up lately less and lately some prices are down 20% from the big or 25% like in Austin and uh and Oakland and so But commercial real estate in some cases is down 80%. 80 and then someone will come and say well I thought that money printing will lift prices and I bought a commercial property and is down 80%. This is the viciousness of inflation because it doesn't move evenly evenly. Everybody would be equally wealthy but it goes very unevenly and usually the rich people the black rock type of institutions they benefit while the poor guy is wiped out. This is the pattern throughout history. You can look it up in financial history books.
One of the charts, you know, listeners, you got to go back to my old book, Global Asset Allocation. Mark's got a great portfolio that that is, I think, the most consistent portfolio in the whole book, which targets roughly equities, cash, REITs, and gold, you know, and that gold po part has done a a huge amount of lifting the last couple years. But it's funny to see kind of the psychology change over the years. You had a great chart from Goldman. We'll add to the show notes on, you know, looking at share of clients expecting the US to be the best performing global region. And of course, 2025, it was off the charts. And of course, what happened in 2025? Foreign smoked the US. We do a quarterly update of valuations on 10-year PE ratios and a bunch of other metrics. And we rank 45 countries. in the US has been the most or near the most expensive for the last few years. But number three on the list, Mark, is Thailand as the cheapest. Give us a little on the boots ground view. Is Thailand look interesting to you? Is this uh cheap for a reason or should we get excited about Thai stocks?
No, I have to laugh because among economists and strategists in the world and among observers of like you different countries, Thailand ranks number one as a failed state as a society and in some ways the failed status is appropriate but it's interesting that so many people in the world they love to go to Thailand on holidays. When people go to Asia, they travel to say Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines and what not and they go to Thailand, they all love Thailand. Why? Because it's a failed state and therefore individuals have a high degree of freedom. It's very interesting. It's very free. And what is also very interesting and I shouldn't say this maybe in this interview because I didn't make it visitors, but I so far in the 25 years that I was busy, I was still traveling a lot until co and still do. But I have never closed my house. I don't even have a key. Anybody can just walk in. But I'm not afraid because it's a very peaceful society. And I can go with my motorcycle at 3:00 in the morning and walk around freely and go to bars and play pool because I I was told that when you age, you should learn something new. So I started to play pool. So I can mix it with drinking and girls and so forth. And I never ever felt insecure that someone would, you know, attack me. But when I walk through the streets of Munich, Hamburg, Berlin, Zurich, Geneva, late at night, I'm no longer feeling 100% safe, 80% maybe, but it's more dangerous than it used to be. And in America, the same. I mean the crime wave in cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles and Chicago is very high. So this is a when you ask me about Thailand, this is the economic condition is not a disaster, it's just not growing. But you have to see one thing. Thailand is blessed country because it has a very large land mass that is very rich in agriculture and the population per acre or per unit of land mass is small. So people have all to enough to eat. This is a very big culture in Thailand to eat. They eat the whole day. But there is enough food. And I have to say I could show take you out now. It's 9:30 in the evening and we could go on the street and eat a perfectly nice plate of noodles with a little meat and a little what? Vegetable and whatever. for say a $150.
I'm in. I like the sounds of that. I'll come join for that. My pool game needs some work, but that sounds uh that sounds all right. 150 doesn't get you a coffee.
I can teach you pool except.
Yeah.
From me. You won't learn very much.
Yeah.
But it's enjoyable game because it's not dangerous. You see, at my age, I can't run a marathon anymore. I can't m mountain climb. Skiing is dangerous because of the crash situation or possibilities. But I like pool is entertaining. It's fun. Well, I need uh I need the US dollar to stay high for a few more weeks cuz I'm going skiing in Japan. So, I'll be not too far away from you, but uh heading over there in a few weeks. But, um, the yen in my mind, it looks certainly like one of the cheaper currencies in the world versus the US. It's like Japan's cheap now. It's weird. For many years, like you go to Japan, it'd be expensive. And now it's I mean, it's not a dollar food cheap, but it's uh it's certainly cheaper.
Thailand has, by the way, the failed state of Thailand had one of the strongest currencies last year. It's you know economics is very funny because in some cases the economic impact is such and such and in other cases completely different and uh I say as an investment team for this year 2026 I think the price of oil is very low and I happen to think that the Thai banks are very cheap because banks around the world I think you pointed out earlier they went up a lot since 2020. I mean this was a big investment scene and I own banks in Europe and u the lousy banks and I own banks in Latin America and in Kazakhstan and in Georgia and in Cyprus and so they performed fantastically well but because they performed so well I'm now concerned what do I do with my money not to lose again say 50 80%. And uh I think oil stocks are now very cheap and natural gas and I think that Thai banks are cheap and then there are markets like Vietnam that are not particularly expensive and also Chinese stocks. Last year the big theme of mine for the stock portfolio were stocks in Singapore and Hong Kong which the property stocks in Hong Kong have done very well and I think they will continue to do well because if you look at Singapore and Hong Kong the price level is high but the security is very high also and the taxes are low. So, uh, a lot of wealthy people will move to Hong Kong, Singapore.
You know, Mark, I would love to spend all night chatting with you, but, um, this.
Well, we would not chat only about investments that I guarantee you because my bad closes around midnight.
Yeah. The, um, but as we look out the rest, we've tal we chatted about a lot of stuff. What's on your brain you're excited about, you're worried about, you're thinking about that we didn't talk about today? Is there anything on your mind? Whether it comes to, you know, you mentioned oil. That was an interesting one cuz I talked to a lot of my friends not in the investing world and they hear the situation with Venezuela and they're like, "Oh, this means oil is going to go down a lot, right?" And it's just and it's just interesting that you hear that that's just kind of the common assumption, which always makes me say, "Oh, wait. Maybe maybe maybe it's going to be the opposite, right? Like maybe when all my friends are, you know, thinking oil is going to 20, maybe it's uh going to go the other way. Anyway, what's on your mind as you look out to 2026?
I mean, as I explained, most people when they talk about investments, they think about how do I invest in an asset that goes up ballistically. You know, the the typical retail investor, individual investor, he'd like a recommendation of a stock that trades at say5 or $10 and within a week it's gone up 20%. Unfortunately, this is an illusion. It happens occasionally that you have a stock that goes up a lot but in general individuals have underperformed the index and the index in the long run I don't know you have all these figures they go up by say 8% peranom in the long run of which uh most of it is inflation anyway the thing is this I think we are at the juncture in markets where big changes are occurring. We also historically in an environment of huge changes and it's not a change that occurs in 5 minutes when you think in 1970 China consumed 2% of all industrial commodities in the world and now it's around 50%. China produces more cement than the rest of the world combined. is we're talking about a huge shift in the balance of economic power from the western world into new countries including China and India and Kazakhstan and Brazil and Russia and so forth and so on and the western world has 12% of global population and the bricks and The others they have 88%. You think the 12% will rule the 88%. I don't think it will happen. But is historically the Roman population was very small and they ruled part of the existing world at the time which was the Mediterranean. But they didn't rule it for long. I mean they they ruled it for long out of Byzantine of Constantinople but not out of Rome. But history has accelerated. You know, an army at the time of Julius Caesar did not move any faster than an army at the time of Napoleon 2,000 years later or 1,800 years later. Now comes the industrial revolution. And the industrial revolution didn't occur because the government intervened and was a socialist government. The industrial revolution occurred because of a free market economy and the capitalistic system. The capitalistic system is one of the greatest invention that mankind carried out. And so within 200 years 1800 to today the world's economy has exploded. When in history was it possible for the poorest people to eat and drink the same food and beverage than the richest people? That the world has to see that the standards of living of most people in the world today is much higher than it's ever been before. But this was only possible because of a market economy and because people had incentives. So they had the incentives to go to America and build up businesses there and so forth. There was no social security. I mean you went to America, you had a problem. It was your problem or your children's problem or your mother's problem. But there was no social security. And now we have all these social institutions and the government pays for this and for pays for that. What did it do? It destroyed the family unit. It also statistically proven. And I think uh these changes will once again have an impact because we have economic cycle series contraatfs and kitchens and kusnets and jugler cycles and so forth and so on. And we have also war cycles and the conditions for war today are the best in two centuries. It doesn't need to lead to a world war but the conditions are very good because you have a superpower the US who still believes that they can control the world and the British they still dream of the neocon neo colonialism and then the new countries they don't want to listen to this British anymore as I like trust she was at the at the time foreign minister of Britain then goes to India and tells the Indian how to run a country. So funny because a year later India overtook Britain as the fifth largest economy in the world and here you have the British a lady from Britain going to India and tell the Indians how to run the world how to run their democracy. That's a stroke. Anyway, the the point is this. We are in a period of huge changes. You and I, we don't know how the world will look like in 5 years. I'm afraid that many things will happen. And in that environment, I want to be diversified. And I'm not saying that gold is cheap here. No, because oil is much cheaper. You know, we can compare prices. So, oil is cheap against gold and wheat and corn and soybean is cheap against gold. Coffee is relatively high and so forth and so on. But one thing is evident to me whatever happens I think the precious metals will kind of maintained their purchasing power because globally people have a maximum of 1 or 2% of their assets in gold. They don't have much gold. If you go to cocktail party in New York and so forth and then of course the women will say, "Yeah, we own gold and so forth." If you dig a little bit, they own an earring in gold or an ounce in gold, but not like a ton of gold or a kilo of gold. No, that they don't own. And most people, I want to tell you, as the price started to go up for gold and silver, they sold it. We can measure how much money is in the ETFs. Very small.
It's been a blessing to talk to you as always. Listeners, go check out gloomboomdoom.com. One of my favorite pieces of writing every month. Cheers, Mark. And uh let's do this again sometime in the real world.
Yes, absolutely. You must come to Asia.
Well, and come to LA and we'll take you surfing instead of uh instead of go play pool.
Okay, that's a good idea. Yes. Great.
Okay, bud.
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