Transcription
Yesterday, at the running back spot, we said if you had two of, I don't know, the top 11 backs, then you're probably going to win your week. Hayden, if someone out there somehow has two of the top six wide receivers, you're in a pretty damn good spot this week, too.
>> I was going to say six as well. They're all in great matchups. So, it just comes down to health with like a couple of these guys, but for the most part, these guys are ready to go.
>> Let's kick it off once again in week nine. Make sure certain teams are out of your lineups due to bye and, uh, let's go and chase that playoff spot. Number one, Puka Nacua, we hope is back. Uh, Hayden, if you look at the first five weeks and you know, a race week six when he left around halftime, he is averaging 21.6 half PPR points, uh, which is good, two points ahead of anyone else.
>> It's insane. So, it's a great spot. They're predicted for 29 points. They get the Saints. It's a great spot if you can go. Um, he quote looked sharp in practice according to the Athletic reporter who covers the Rams. So, coming back from an ankle injury, he was limited in practice. He also plays through a bunch of injuries. So, yeah, in theory, he might be playing at at less than 100%, but, um, what's 80% of 21.6 half PPR points? A lot.
>> I don't know. You're the math guy. Why don't you do it quickly?
>> Uh, okay, let's talk about Jamar Chase as your wide receiver two, because I think this is a conversation. First, let's act as if Joe Flacco is playing in this game. He was throwing off to the side when recording this on Thursday. Right now, with Jamar Chase, he has a 6.9 ADOT with Joe Flacco, but you know, that has led to 19, 12, 15 targets over and over and over again. I do wonder against this Bears defense, uh, they've allowed a 62% completion rate to wide receivers on 10-plus yard targets down the field and a 55% rate on targets 20-plus yards down the field. That's from the worksheet and retrie. So, if we were to get more and again, downfield shots from Jamar Chase, it might be this matchup.
>> Yeah, we just don't know how many of the Bears corners are going to play. Uh, last week they had their top four corners out. So, we'll figure that out. And even they don't have a good enough corner to stop Jamar Chase. So, short passes, downfield passes, I don't care. I just know that the targets, it's 54 targets over the last three games. Next closest, 34. 20 targets more than anybody else. I mean, it's it's really insane. So, I downgrade him a little bit because Joe Flacco is probably going to need a pain injection to play. That's how quarterbacks with AC joint injuries typically play the next week. I'm guessing that impacts things. Like you said, what 6.8 uh ADOT. He only has to throw the ball so far for Jamar Chase to go crazy.
>> Right. Don't get me wrong, short ADOT isn't always bad in fantasy football. Players get loaded and load loaded with targets.
>> Okay, now ask a difficult question. If Jake Browning turns out to be the quarterback, if the 40-plus-year-old Joe Flacco cannot go?
>> Yeah.
>> Uh, where does Jamar Chase rank for you?
>> I'll probably go sixth. You know, just we talked about the top six. I think I put him last of that group. But hopefully Jake Browning's got to the point like, oh, what have I learned from Flacco? Throw the ball six yards to Jamar Chase and live with the results.
>> Jackson Smith-Njigba is your wide receiver three. This is at the Washington Commanders. I mean, we're talking top of the heap in terms of wide receiver scoring this year. It's Puka Nacua, it's Rashi Rice since he's rejoined, and it's Jackson Smith-Njigba.
>> Yeah, over the last 365 days. Remember, he went crazy down the stretch, too. He's the wide receiver three per game. So, 90.5 receiving yards in the underdog picking lobby. He's been a total stud. The Commander secondary has made like a couple plays here and there, but for the most part have been shredded. Their defensive line is in in dire straits, too, just because of a bunch of injuries. So, uh, big crossing routes and stuff, it's it's the name of the game for for Jackson Smith-Njigba. And, uh, the Sam Darnold efficiency should be in a good spot because they are expected to win once again. And I just love how their running game should match up against the commanders' weaknesses, which then plays a part in the passing game efficiency on top of it. We discussed that yesterday, uh, in the running back ranking show, but, you know, for a team that's running 11 personnel at just like a 35% rate. By the way, I believe Robbie Isen is coming back for this. I didn't mention that in the running back ranking show. So, we're going to get some fullback love in here. And look, if you know the two linebackers that are slow are moving forward, they're going to be even slower retreating to hopefully fill out these voids in the back half. And again, that just opens it up with these big scissors concepts or downfield rights that JSN and Sam Darnold are connecting on this season.
>> CeeDee Lamb is your wide receiver four. This is against the Arizona Cardinals. Uh, do you need to go? Are you suiting up for the Cardinals defensive backs this week?
>> No, they got a couple guys back, but I am on their like short list of guys. I might have to play safety for them, though. That's that's the problem. Here's what I do know. The Cardinals have been like especially bad against kind of slot flanker adjacent players. So, Hunter Renfrow, he had 20.3 half PPR points. Remember those days?
>> Talk about CeeDee Lamb and Hunter Renfrow in the same conversation.
>> I know, but I was just saying like the fact that Hunter Renfrow scored 20 fantasy points against the Cardinals in this role should mean something. Ricky Pierce off for 16, JSN 11, Josh had 13. So, like these kind of slotty type of players are going crazy. Even if they weren't going crazy, CeeDee Lamb is awesome. They're projected for 28 points. It's supposed to be a really high-scoring game. Um, love it.
>> Yeah, I mean, Lamb returned last week from injury and didn't look slowed down at all to my eyes. Let's talk about Rashi Rice. Uh, he's back. He's a couple feet away from, I don't know, another 12 points added to his fantasy totals. And again, since he has returned, uh, he is the overall wide receiver one in fantasy points. And now it's a super super high total in this game, uh, of, I believe, 52 and a half between the Chiefs and the Bills.
>> He's been quote ramping up. So, just like debut from injury, that was like around 50% of the routes. This last week, 83% of the routes. So, I mean, if this was what ramping up is, then, uh, I mean, we're going to have a pretty crazy end here. So, huge team total. Buffalo, we talked about their defense, their safety play and their linebacker play has been really bad. They're they're starting to get some better cornerback play because of uh of injuries. They're they should be getting some good starters uh back in the mix, but man, they just have not stopped anything up the middle. They don't have defensive tackles on top of it. So, uh, I would not be surprised if the Chiefs score even more points than the 27 they're expected.
>> Ed Oliver being out with a biceps injury is so massive for that Bills defense. Uh, he was at least, you know, getting upfield penetration, instant disruption, a big key in, you know, their rushing success when they do have it.
>> And then him being out, like there's no replacement there. And I know they have some nice pressure totals from their edge players, but, uh, Ed Oliver was, to me, their most important front four player.
>> Yeah, and Mahomes can navigate edge pressure like that's, you know, the interior stuff is what's got him for like the four games in his career when he's played bad.
>> Let us know in the comments down below if you have one of these top four wide receivers plus Rashi Rice in your lineups.
>> Well, you could have JSN and Rashi Rice and one of these guys.
>> Correct. Yep. Not bad. But at the same time, Hayden, again, we loved all the running backs that we discussed yesterday, too. So, there's a lot, there's a lot of good combos that that you could have. Uh, and by the way, if you didn't draft Rashi Rice, uh, one, you wouldn't against our advice.
>> And two, um, you should play his pick 'em projections on Underdog. I mean, we're in 41 of 50 states right now. They got prediction markets. You've got, you know, pick 'em. You've got Battle Royale that you can draft. We obviously have sportsbooks as well. So, go use promo code THESHOW or click the link in the description down below and have some fun this weekend when we have World Series and we have NBA on top of it. So, again, if you play $5 for the first time, we'll give you 100 bucks in bonus cash. That is promo code THESHOW.
>> Jess, on that, have you seen what Rashi Rice's receiving yards projection is?
>> Nope. Uh, do you want me to guess?
>> I want you to guess.
>> I'm going to guess 79 and a half.
>> That's where I thought it was going to be. It's at 68 and a half right now. So, I will be meeting the Underdog Pick 'em Lobby with my phone just after this episode.
>> Love that. All right. Your wide receiver six, which we could make a tier of its own after this name, is Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Minnesota Vikings. Uh, he has both very good home splits and splits against the Brian Flores defense. So, the home ones this season he's 91, 115, and three touchdowns. That is 770 and two scores, and then 686 and one. And then in three of four games against Brian Flores and his defense, he has over 105 yards in three of those four. Uh, so again, we know against this pass rush against the blitz, he gets fed and is the first read and primary option in a lot of those situations. I have those same box score results against Flores. So, in all of those games with 105 total yards, he scored a touchdown in all of them. And then the other game, only six for 77. So, I'm sorry, if it was only six for 77. So, the Lions have scored 30-plus in all four of those outings. So, they have have his number. And then the Vikings defense this year, just there's missing bodies right now. So, I think it's a great spot for him once again.
>> Stud. Okay. Davante Adams is your wide receiver seven. I think this might surprise some people because at least in the box score, he like didn't really start scoring touchdowns until Puka Nacua left. But you and I in Stats versus Film on these episodes have discussed that actually the entire season, he was top two in terms of end zone targets and maybe even number one in end in end zone target rate. Uh, and so it just hit when Puka was out, but it can hit with Puka being in at the exact same time because he was still getting those types of targets. Just to put exact numbers on that, he's had his bye. Davante Adams still has four more inside the 10-yard line targets than the next closest in the NFL despite the bye week. That's pretty insane. So, in the five games with Puka, Davante Adams averaging 14.9 expected points, which is equivalent to like the wide receiver seven in usage. The team total is elite up at 29 points. They get the Saints here. And then, uh, over the last month of the season, the Rams neutral pass rate is at 70%, the highest in the NFL. And I could just see the Rams leading into the pass game more and more because now they know what they have. Like Stafford's back, ready to go. Puka is obviously one of the best in the league. And then Davante Adams has really not fallen off, uh, really at all. So, I wouldn't be surprised, like if you were Sean McVay, why wouldn't you be top three, top five in neutral pass rate?
>> Your wide receiver eight to close out this top tier is George Pickens. He's wide receiver 12 in consensus rankings against that same Arizona Cardinal defense that we talked about. Why do you continue to be higher than the public on George Pickens?
>> There's just obviously room for two here. Um, so I'm sticking with that. There's splits that you can point out with like CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens out there, but you also have to like account for some of the corners that he's gone against. Unfortunately for George Pickens, despite this huge start to the season, he's already faced Pat Surtain, Sauce Gardner, and Quinn Johnson Mitchell individually. That's just there that does not exist in Arizona. So I'm looking at how the Cowboys rank in overall wide receiver usage. And this month they're seventh in wide receiver usage. That's 30.3 expected points. Give, let's give CeeDee Lamb 17 of them and give George Pickens 12, 13 of them and that gap could be kind of split up, uh, week to week. And Dak Prescott's playing out of his mind right now. So, I I feel very good about the George Pickens stuff. Like you said, this is the T. Higgins of last year and I believe Higgins is like the wide receiver four or five overall per game last year. So, like George Pickens could easily be the the eighth receiver.
>> Totally with you. Uh, they're projected for 28 points again. You know, there's plenty to split up between three guys. And if one is going to be left behind, it's probably Jake Ferguson of the.
>> Passing. Yeah.
>> Okay. Justin Jefferson is your wide receiver nine here. So, in the two games that we got JJ McCarthy this season, he only averaged 27 routes per game. Now, they're going to be losing and down in this contest. We would expect. I mean, yeah.
>> The Lions are projected for 28 and a half. The Vikings are only projected for 20. So, by nature of that and game script and game flow and game state, then they're going to have to, you know, ask Justin Jefferson to probably run more than 27 routes. But at the same time, it does show to me the shift in their mindset when JJ is and was their quarterback, which just is not the same one that we saw with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold.
>> Yeah. And that that was the whole offseason plan is you bring in a bunch of offensive linemen and you resign your tight end too, who's a blocker type, and you're going to run a more balanced offense. They're going to try to do that to some degree. And then on top of that, whenever he was dropping back, it wasn't pretty. So, uh, if you look at the JJ McCarthy numbers, like that's like the lowest, uh, threshold for just, uh, these stats. He's dead last in completion percentage over expected. So that's negative 7.3 percentage points. Carson Wentz, even with that broken shoulder, was still above average at plus 1.1. So, uh, I think there was a reason why they were really slow play slow playing it with J.J. McCarthy. They don't trust his, uh, footwork right now. Um, and I'm a little bit nervous in general, and I was not surprised to see the Vikings only projected for 20 points. So, um, he's been about the wide receiver seven, eightish, for a long time. If you look at the last like 365 days once Jordan Addison like fully broke out, this is kind of where he belongs. Um, he's actually like closer like the wide receiver 40 in points than Jamar Chase all that all the way up first overall. Um, so I think this is totally fair.
>> Yeah. I mean, simply put, you have ranked two quote unquote wide receiver twos ahead of one of the best wide receivers in Justin Jefferson. But if people think that's wrong, one, it might be. That's what fantasy football is. Two, look at the team totals this week. Like all those teams are projected for way more points than what the Minnesota Vikings are this week.
>> Yep.
>> Zay Flowers is your wide receiver 10. He's actually wide receiver 16 in consensus rankings. Hayden, do you think that's because people forget what happens in weeks one, weeks two, weeks three, because they're so long ago. It feels like half a year ago.
>> When in reality, when that's the case,
>> he's already averaging a career-high eight targets per game right now. Yeah, that's pretty much well said. And I, I think that Zay Flowers is like taking another step to his own game as well. And at the same time, Mark Andrews continues to regress. So, would it be surprising that Zay Flowers just gets a bigger piece of the pass game pie moving forward? That would not surprise me at all. And then, keep in mind, Miami is just the worst defense in in the league. They're right or at least bottom three. Um, and they're projected for 29 points immediately. So, I think there's like this, we got to see the Ravens offense first before we can kind of rank these guys aggressively. I'm like, well, I I see where this one's going. Lamar Jackson versus the Dolphins. Like, this is going to be great. And
>> by the way, we're posting this wide receiver episode ahead of Thursday Night Football. So, if you are watching it ahead of Thursday Night Football or even after on Friday, uh, be sure to leave a thumbs up and hit that subscribe button as we do our best to hit 170,000 subscribers prior to the end of the season.
>> La'Melo Ball is your wide receiver 11. There he is back on top of all of these Chargers wide receivers. I mean, Hayden, over the last three games, he has nine-plus targets. Not bad. He also has a touchdown in three of his last four. And, uh, you know, the Titans just traded away another quarterback this week.
>> The matchup is, we'll get to that in a second. It's beautiful. But just for La'Melo Ball himself, the last 365 days, he's the wide receiver 12. So, we had that one stint that we can point to that wasn't great, but he's been the wide receiver 12 per game. And he's still running, uh, almost all the routes. 90% of the routes in the last two games when Aronda Gatson, uh, and Quentin Johnson have both been back in the lineup. He gets subbed out in like one wide receiver sets, but he plays in two and three wide receiver sets, obviously. And I think he's the best football player, uh, that Herbert's throwing the ball to. So, I'm just going to rank rank it like that. And then for the matchup you're talking about, they traded away Roger McCreary, who's a slot guy that was going to be facing La'Melo Ball, a 25-year-old who the Rams, I'm sure, are going to pay a lot of money because he's good. Legerius Sneed, their top outside corner. He's on injured reserve. Jeffrey Simmons and Arden Key, two starters on the defensive line. Jeffrey Simmons might as well be the defensive player of the year this year. They were both out at practice on Wednesday with the same injuries they've had when they've been missing recently. So, this is like as good of an eruption spot as you can get. The team total is really high, and I think we should be starting all three of these wide receivers. I just think La'Melo Ball is just like he's the been the best over the biggest sample, and I just think he's the best all-around player in the offense.
>> We talked about this in Stats versus Film on our socials. You can see, uh, the differences in the wide receiver snap share based on the personnel groupings.
>> Yeah.
>> Top down view. Why do you think this team is playing Trey Harris on like 92% of single wide receiver sets over the last few weeks? Is because of the size?
>> Yep. Just blocks. They probably want to get him some reps, just get him on the football field. It's like weird to go through the entire season as a second round and like just not be on the football field. Uh, little insurance policy, I guess, and then keep the other wide receivers fresh. So, really Keenan Allen, I know he's been out producing Quentin Johnson. I think that Keenan Allen's still going to be all right. But he's the one that's losing the most snaps as they bring in the fullback back that get Aronda Gatson plus another tight end out there. Now Gatson's like in the slot, that comes at the expense of Keenan Allen a little bit. Trey Harris comes in, that's at the expense of Keenan Allen a little bit too. So, they have like these clearly defined roles. Just the offense is so good when they have both of the tackles back that I think that even with that, the team totals are going to be really high. They're still super pass heavy, that these guys will all end up being all right. Just the weekly floor is lower for all of them.
>> I'll save one more Keenan Allen point until we, uh, talk about his name.
>> Cool.
>> Okay. Your next name here is D.K. Metcalf as wide receiver 12. And I was a bit surprised to see him this high. You're right there with the public who has him as wide receiver 13. This is against the Indianapolis Colts, and that's probably a factor here. But, you know, D.K. is averaging less than four receptions per game right now at 3.9. Now, he does have five touchdowns, and that's what we talk about every single week that, oh, post up in the red zone touchdown there, or oh, 80-yard.
>> Break one Harrison Smith tackle and I'm off to the races in a long game there.
>> But this isn't a volume play. It's not necessarily the bankable targets on every single week. Um, it's just a really interesting fantasy profile. I think at this moment.
>> It is. It's a new role for D.K. Metcalf. And I also just think that what's happened in the first eight weeks is not really accurate to what's going to happen in this one because they've been winning all these games and I've not been forced into that many pass attempts in general, where this week when you face the Colts, and I think the Colts offense is way better than the Steelers defense, I think D.K. Metcalf and Rodgers are gonna have to just drop back and pass a lot more. And D.K. Metcalf is still getting the downfield routes that we're used to, but there's also these like checks at the line of scrimmage. So, D.K. Metcalf's ADOT in general has dropped to like career lows, and that's because he's getting an additional target or two versus where he was, uh, earlier. So, just in general, the Colts have allowed 120 receptions to wide receivers. That's 11 more than any defense in the NFL. Like that is just a game script dependent stat there. Uh, but also the Colts secondary is entirely injured right now on top of it. So, I think it's just a good spot for Rodgers to kind of pick apart Lumo, who's a good defensive coordinator, but they just don't have enough juices right now. And Rodgers has seen everything. He's not going to be spooked all that much. So, I think there's more volume coming for D.K. Metcalf this week.
>> Drake London, hopefully back, is your wide receiver 13. This is at the New England Patriots. When he faces, you know, outside corners and lines up on the outside, we'd expect him to face off against Christian Gonzalez. Um, and at the same time, he's been playing 33% in the slot, uh, which would be key for him to avoid that Christian Gonzalez stuff. At the same time, Marcus Jones has played really well, too.
>> Yep. Yeah. I think it's a good defense top to bottom. So, and I just don't know the health status of all these guys. So, Drake London limited on Wednesday. Michael Penn, I think, is going to play through that bone bruise in his knee. Uh, Darnell Mooney is on the injury report once again with a hamstring injury. He's been limited. There's a lot of things up in the air here. All I know is this. The Falcons have a team total under 20 points. For a lot of the season, it's been 23, 25, 27 points. Not this week. I think that's just the state of the Patriots defense and a lot of the question marks we're starting to see on the Falcons offense right now. And then on top of that, you get Drake London versus Christian Gonzalez, like you mentioned. So, I hope they move him into the slot and they do some funky things like that. But, um, also just got to make sure that like Michael Penn is able to move around a little bit, and when he's been under pressure, he's just not been very good. And I do worry that if you have a leg injury on top of that, that the bottom could be a lot lower than than I'd like.
>> Yeah. I mean, their last two road games, they put up zero points against the Carolina Panthers and 10 points against the San Francisco 49ers.
>> Man.
>> Uh, so we'll see.
>> Man, Falcons home road splits are quite rough. After the show is over, I want you to do one thing. Google yourself. Yep. I want you to see that maybe your name, your contact information, your home address, where you've worked, and shoot, maybe even your social security number is available online. That's slightly terrifying, isn't it? DeleteMe can help you and have that extra layer of protection. In fact, Wirecutter of the New York Times chose and named DeleteMe as their top pick for data removal services. I know I go to Wirecutter for like the best television, the best cell phone, the best speakers, all that type of stuff. So, that's a great recommendation here for DeleteMe. So, take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joinDeleteMe.com/underdog and use promo code UNDERDOG at checkout. The only way to get 20% off is to go to joinDeleteMe.com/underdog and enter code UNDERDOG at checkout. Once again, that's joinDeleteMe.com/underdog. Code UNDERDOG. Disclaimer: DeleteMe works with data brokers.
>> Next, Jaylen Waddle against the Baltimore Ravens. His splits since Tyreek Hill has been out have been fantastic. Against his TNF, he has at least 95 yards in three of the last four games without Tyreek, and he's the wide receiver four in yards per route run. So, what do you think about this healthier Ravens secondary? What did you see last week against the Chicago Bears wide receivers that might give you some hope here from Waddle?
>> Yeah, so I think the matchup is difficult. Nate Wiggins, like one of the corners who can actually straight up run with Jaylen Waddle like stride for stride. He's he's that fast, and that's how he had that interception against Rodgers where he's like cut back in front of it. The team total for Miami goes up and down. Just depends on the opponent where they're on the road or whatnot. It's at 21 and a half, which is below average. But at the same time, like I said with Zay Flowers, is I just think the Ravens offense is going to go crazy here, and that's just going to force a bunch of second half drop backs, and there's only so many guys you can get the ball to. So, he's certified good. He does it in a lot of different ways. He's been like very good on like the deep ball crossing routes. They're really trying to get him going on these big out routes, which I think he's setting up his routes, uh, very nicely as well. I think it's just a more difficult challenge this week, but like you said, he's been he's been too damn good to to lower this much. I think that game script could be way in his favor.
>> I don't know if the Ravens pass rush is as daunting as it's been in previous years. Definitely.
>> Where it could totally run over to him. You know?
>> I think that's almost how we have to view this Dolphins passing attack in certain games of, okay, is the offensive line and is Tua just going to get swarmed and overwhelmed? If not, they are good enough with this style of a passing attack that they can move the ball and against like really bad teams, and, you know, the Ravens are much better than their record would indicate. They can have really good outings like they did last week. So, I'm kind of in that middle area with this Ravens defense at this moment.
>> And I'm sure that like Kyle Hamilton's been their chess piece as he always is. Like, is Kyle Hamilton going to be focused on on Devin Han or he's going to be playing like more true safety and make sure that these crossing routes that Jaylen Waddle has been so effective on, and that's going to be something that Roquan Smith's been up and down. Um, so, yeah, it's just one of these like super volatile defenses. Like, would it be surprising to me if the Ravens were the seventh best offense from this point forward? It really wouldn't be. But they don't have the edge rushers and the defensive tackles that we've seen in previous versions.
>> Right. It's it's a different beast than going up against like the Browns pass rushing unit or the Packers pass rushing unit or the Denver Broncos.
>> Pass rushing. Those types of things.
>> Okay, let's talk about Nico Collins because he's hopefully back in our lives. Uh, DeMeco Ryans every time he gets on the podium says, "Yeah, we expect him to play," even if he hasn't cleared concussion protocol at this point. He's your wide receiver 15 against the aforementioned Denver Broncos. Be a very different matchup if Patrick Surtain was playing. He is not. He's out at least two weeks, maybe four weeks, maybe six weeks, who knows? Uh, I believe Christian Kirk is also back for this game. So, all those rookies that we got to see last week, we can wave goodbye to them, and it's back to the older guys here.
>> With Nico Collins, I looked at the last 365 days and it's been kind of like roller coasters, different injuries, and then the offense has been stalling out in that span. He's the wide receiver 18 per game. So, kind of viewing him more as like an upside wide receiver two that could have really, really strong moments, but just don't fully trust this offense. The offensive line in particular, even if Surtain's still out, they still have like four guys that can really rush the passer, and that makes me a little bit nervous. Uh, very curious to see if they're going to do the six offensive line stuff, or was that just a function that Nico Collins was out and they wanted, you know, fewer guys in the route? So, I would be curious about that because if it is six offensive lineman sets, then that means there's fewer guys to compete with Nico Collins out in the route and more downfield pass attempts, which is where he's at his best at. So, that could end up being like a good thing. So, Riley Moss in the secondary, it's still all right. It's not like terrible, even without Surtain. Uh, and the team total is at 20.5 points, which is below average for this week. I just hope that they figured something out up front, and it's, you know, a difference of doing that versus, you know, the San Francisco 49ers pass rush and then the Baltimore Ravens pass rush a few weeks before that versus, you know, this Denver Broncos one.
>> It would have been funny if they got on the mic after the Larry Marcial trade and we're like, how we're going to replace him is we're going to add a sixth offensive lineman on the field for every single snap. You guys do not believe this, but we are actually going to do it, and it's going to work.
>> I mean, I wish they had been doing it since week one.
>> I know that way.
>> I'd like to see it.
>> Michael Pittman closes out your top 16. This is at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Uh, the Steelers allowed 16 catches to Jamar Chase, 10 to Justin Jefferson, eight to Jackson Smith-Njigba, seven to Garrett Wilson, and even seven to Cooper Kupp. So, Michael Pittman should get at least seven this week.
>> I also had like Tory Holt had over 10 fantasy points on the perimeter. T. Higgins had 19 points against them. Jordan Addison had 13 fantasy points against them. So, like outside wide receivers have been completely just dicing up the Steelers. They're just too old. Like it's just a total mess. Uh, in Pittsburgh.
>> Too predictable, you know, first read targets. If we saw Joe Flacco to Jamar Chase hit first read after first read, what is Shane Steichen going to be able to do here?
>> Exactly. Exactly. Uh, Josh Downs with the hip injury did not practice. We don't know if he's going to play or not here, but overall, this has just been where Michael Pittman's played at. He's the wide receiver 18 on wide receiver 25 usage this month. He's pretty much been that throughout the course of the season. And I think when we look back at the Michael Pittman career, the back half of 2024 last year with that back injury is just going to be like, take that data and throw it out the window. And the rest of his career has been like a top 24 fantasy wide receiver, and now he's a part of the best offense of the last like decade through eight weeks.
>> Whoa.
>> I mean, points per drive, that's what it is.
>> I know. It's just.
>> It makes no sense still. It's like hard to, you know, wrap your head around.
>> It's fun. I mean, I turn him on every Monday morning, that's for sure.
>> Okay, let's talk about Romeo Doubs. He's your wide receiver 17. This is at the Cincinnati Bengals. Um, you know, when we reviewed Romeo Doubs' tape for our second-year breakout show, it was very evident that he could be this team's wide receiver one. That's why I ranked him that way. And then against man coverage, his skills showcase themselves way more often. Against zone, it was very questionable. And if we look at the spreadsheets and the underlying metrics here, man coverage this season, he has a 3.0 yards per route run. And against zone coverage, that's down to 1.74 yards per route run. I know.
>> We had the conversation of D.J. Moore and Caleb being off script, off page, um, uh, against zone coverage, but that kind of seems like just about everyone in this Bears offense. Not to that same degree of missing touchdowns, but it's just not as easy as the man-to-man stuff right now.
>> Yeah. And then like if we're like really nitpicking the Romeo stuff, which I don't even like to do. He also has a hands problem. Like he drops more passes than most of the elite. And.
>> James, I didn't say that.
>> Yeah, well, I can just show you the clips. I'm not making him drop the football. Uh, I'm mostly mad just because that Caleb rollout where he threw the ball to Romeo Doubs who dove and missed it, that was pissing me off. But anyways, Romeo Doubs is in a good spot here. In general, the team total is up at 27 points. I think that the team's going to bounce back on offense here. The Bengals have been a total mess. No Trey Hendrickson of note as well. Uh, Romeo Doubs didn't practice with the heel injury. Neither did D.J. Moore, Luther Burden, and Ollie Kizer. So, there's a lot of injury things that we need to, uh, keep note of. Did want to mention this though. Cincinnati Bengals defense. They are horrific, except DJ Turner, who runs like 4.2s. He's an emerging young corner. He's been excellent. He is like forcing defensive pass, uh, or pass deflections, interceptions. He's really sticky on man coverage. He is so athletic and he's been excellent against outside wide receivers like Metcalf held to six. Romeo Doubs held to eight. Jameson held to one. Courtland Sutton had a decent game, but Justin Jefferson had man coverage reps against, uh, DJ Turner, held him to 10. Uh, all these guys like low, low, low numbers. So, that's who Romeo Doubs is going to be going up against. But just DJ Turner, I'm not sure if we said anything about him on the show before, but he's like one of these guys that's like really standing out on an otherwise like horrific, uh, Bengals defense.
>> I think it was back-to-back years that the Bengals took first-round DBs out of Michigan, if I'm not mistaken. Like Dax Hill and then DJ Turner after the Jessie Bates and other safety and cornerback losses on top of that.
>> Uh, okay, let's talk about T. Higgins. We discussed Jamar Chase at the front. Uh, T. Higgins and this Bears secondary. Their corners are terrible. They've been injured. I say that you would like to think though that Dennis Allen has been in the league and running defenses long enough that he will not let Jamar Chase get first read after first read after first read, 16, 15, 14 targets. And if that's the case, and again, tagging that with what we discussed in that conversation of 10-plus, 20-plus yard targets, this, you know, Bears defense has been terrible at covering, that could equal maybe T. Higgins' best game in quite a few weeks.
>> Yeah, could totally see it. And he's just been holding the line. So, in the games with Flacco, 10.4 expected points, which is equivalent to like wide receiver 23 usage. And we're seeing some of the big playability, uh, again, which is refreshing. And then, yeah, Bears injury, uh, top four corners out last week. Too early to tell who's going to be returning back there. Uh, but they're like their top corners, he's out for the year. So, um, in general, a good spot just pending the Joe Flacco stuff. Um, I think it lowers the floor versus what we've seen out of Flacco recently, but I do think in general this should be a pretty high-scoring game.
>> Next, let's talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. I mean, I almost forgot about him. I gotta be honest. Uh, I mean, for real, the Dallas Cowboys.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh, to me, there's not that much to say. Like, the Cowboys secondary is absolutely brutal, right?
>> Yeah.
>> Marvin Harrison Jr. is a solid wide receiver.
>> I would have actually liked this even more if Jacoby Brissett was going to be the quarterback. I'll bring that up one more time. So, this is almost a, you know, force versus an immovable object type thing, which wins out, and I guess it will be Marvin Harrison Jr., but at the same time, I certainly believe that Trey McBride outscores him on top of that.
>> Yeah. And the Pick 'em Lobby has Trey McBride ahead of Marvin Harrison in terms of receiving yards. Um, I would classify this game against the Cowboys as a potential turning point for the Marvin Harrison career in general. We're talking about the post-bye sophomore bump for him, and you get the easiest matchup in the NFL. If he can't do it here, big questions need to be asked. Over the last 365 days, he is the wide receiver 46 per game. Wide receiver 46 per game.
>> That's not good enough.
>> No. Trevon Diggs, their top corner on the outside right now on injured reserve. Uh, and the Cowboys have allowed 15 touchdowns to wide receivers. That's four more than any other defense. They're allowing 35.2 half PPR points to wide receivers. That's 3.3 more than anybody else. We don't even know who the wide receiver two on the Cardinals is. So, all this should be massive, massive Marvin Harrison game. And if he can't do it here, that would be quite concerning, even more concerning than the wide receiver 46 status in the last 365 days. And I know that's per game, too. And I know he's missed a little bit of time there. That's per game. So, it's now or never. Uh, I think the Cowboys defense is worse than Marvin Harrison is bad. So, I'm ranking him as a top 20 guy.
>> I think that's a great way to put it. Uh, a fantastic way to put it. Now, you said it might be a turning point in his career. I think it could be a one-week turning point because then they get the Seattle Seahawks next week, you know? So, it's more of a show me game. Like, show me Marvin Harrison Jr. that you have the talent to beat a bottom three defense and a bottom three secondary in the NFL.
>> And all that same thing for Kyler Murray. Like, you're well-paid. Are you going to be on this team anymore? You have to show up here. And if you don't show up here with these two guys, it's like, what exactly are we doing here? Arizona Cardinals.
>> Uh, this is Monday Night Football, so everyone is going to be watching a prime time Marvin Harrison Jr., Kyler Murray.
>> Showcase game. What could go wrong? And they are underdogs on the road by two and a half points.
>> But like 26 projected points is like something really still. So, I this will be a good Marvin Harrison game. I'm just putting that out there. This will be a good Marvin Harrison game. And if it's not, we have a lot to talk about.
>> South.
>> Then you'll be tweeting about it.
>> And I will.
>> Deebo Samuel is wide receiver 20. This is against the Seattle Seahawks. Uh, Seahawks defense has been utterly fantastic. They're kind of weaponizing their second-round pick and Nick Amin in really, really fun ways.
>> Uh, Deebo missed a game, was not healthy prior to that. Hopefully gets Jalen Daniels back. It was a miserable time for him this past week. Hopefully it gets back to the early season stuff because in the first fourish weeks, Deebo was an amazing fantasy asset.
>> When he's had Jalen Daniels, he's averaging 14 half PPR points. That's really solid numbers. That includes a couple games where Terry McLaurin was also out there. McLaurin's going to be out. I'm guessing like I wouldn't be surprised if like injured reserve for Terry McLaurin is same like the setback to the same injury. Like typically you just like are going to miss more than the initial injury. Um, so all that's good news. I'm expecting Jalen Daniels to be back here. Commander's offensive line is banged up, uh, including like some of their best offensive linemen. And now you get the Seahawks defensive line. So, like those are the, there's clear positives and negatives for the Deebo Samuel stuff. I'm middle grounding it here as wide receiver 20. He faces Deon Witherspoon. Nick Amin is also going to be out there. Uh, they got fast linebackers, too. And then their pass rush has a huge advantage over the offensive line. But all that said, if you can't run the ball against the Seahawks, what are you going to do? You're going to throw the ball to Deebo Samuel repeatedly. So, assuming that he's like healthier now than he was in the last couple games, this should be a good Deebo Samuel game, even if we're not expecting the Commanders to do like a ton.
>> T.J. Hockenson, Tedo McMillan is your wide receiver 21. I keep seeing people suggest like, oh, this is going to be your second half wide receiver breakout. Um, just by way of how the Panthers want to play football. I think Ted McMillan is an incredible talent. He's showcased that already, just watch him on a weekly basis and.
>> Yeah.
>> The way he moves, the way he separates, the way he elevates, it's awesome. It's just not an environment to me that we're going to get like a true difference maker from a fantasy standpoint rest of season. And I also think like this is an opportunity, as we talked about with the Dolphins, for an offense to get totally steamrolled by the opposition's pass rushing.
>> Youth. I think the upside appeal for the rest of the season is largely tied to are the Panthers the bottom four offense in the NFL or because they have not been that this year, but last week there, there were some cracks that are starting to form. Like, is if the defense is really bad and you're forcing Tedro McMillan into dropbacks, he is dominating all the targets and he's just a first down machine. Um, and like you said, he's a very good football player too. Though in my notes for this matchup, I kind of like it when the Panthers are supposed to get their ass kicked for Ted McMillan. Like last week they could not move the ball at all, and that was the the season high for Ted McMillan in usage just because they have to get away from the running backs, which they want to, and that's what we're expecting here. So, I know that the Packers defense is good. I'm worried about the offensive line, uh, injuries. I'm worried about Bryce Young playing on this ankle. But if you're promising me like 35 dropbacks, 40 dropbacks from the Panthers here, the ball.
Just gets funneled to Ted Rowan McMillan because he's like clearly the best wide receiver that they have. And Green Bay against like these big exceivers. DK Mechov Mechafon for 14, Jamar Chase 20 points. George Pickkins for almost 30 points. It's similarish profile here for T-Mac.
Uh Matt Laflur got on the mic this week and claimed that his team was the reason of the Bryce Young turnaround. I don't know if you remember that rookie year, but that was like the only good time that the offensive line held together and he threw for I think near like 300 yards in in that game. So Lafur was like, "We did that."
Does that mean it's like a revenge game? Like we have to make sure that doesn't happen again.
Uh you pointed out the first down stuff for Ter McMillan. Ron Stewart posted an excellent tweet on this.
Yeah.
31 of his 37 receptions have equaled first downs. Uh he has 31 first down receptions. Hayden, did you see who's number two on that list?
For the Panthers?
It's eight. And Hunter Renfro is second.
It was all in that one game against the Cardinals is in my notes.
That's not good.
So, yeah, T-Mac is he's he's freaking awesome. He's freaking awesome. Next is Cton Sutton. Uh up and down despite him clearly being the best pass catcher on this team. Uh what do you expect to happen against the Houston Texans and Derek Stingley this week? He's becoming very difficult for me to rank just because he's been so volatile here. The team total is down at 19 points. That's the fourth fewest on the slate because there's a lot of teams on buys. Now it's at 19 points. Like the Saints are at under 15 points. So we're not like the very bottom of of the barrel here, but it's a difficult matchup. You Dererick Singley and then I'll throw out Kamari Laceder and Kaylin Bolick at at uh safety is also helping out. It's a very difficult team to move the ball against through the air. So, he's the wide receiver 16 over the last 365 days. Um, but this is a more difficult matchup. Marvin Mims in concussion protocol. I don't expect him to play, but Troy Franklin's been more involved in a couple more like big, you know, dig routes, which is a little bit of overlap with Courtland Sutton. So, yeah. And then also like Bo Knicks is like the ultimate wild card. There's no predicting what he's going to do, too. So, I just think difficult defense uh and an offense that's kind of been playing to their opponent. I I think this should be like a little bit lower of a cordless sun week, but um still like him.
Fun player, good player, but only project for 19 points this week. It's probably the low of the season that the Broncos will have all year long.
Stefon Diggs is your wide receiver 23. Um I'm a little surprised by this. Now, I understand it's the Atlanta Falcons and all that type of stuff, but he has just one game this season playing over 75% of snaps and per Reeves, he's wide receiver 46 in route percentage over the last five weeks. Again, we had that like two game sample where he faced the Panthers, played a ton in the first three quarters and they were winning so he didn't need to play in the fourth.
Then the next week, I believe, was the Bills and that was a revenge game and he played like all the snaps. And then ever since then, it's kind of gone back to where it was in weeks one through three where he's not a full-time player again.
Yep. And still this month, he's a wide receiver 26 on wide receiver 29 usage. So, he's effective when he's ever when he's out there. Matchup wise, the team's expected to score a lot of points at 25 against the Falcons. Raandre Stevenson with that toe injury.
Mispractice again today.
I'm guessing he's not going to play. And I don't think they're like the Trayvon's obviously going to get a lot more touches. I don't think this team is going to be like we're just going to run the ball all of a sudden. I think that they're gonna pass the ball even more than they do because they don't have Raandre Stevenson. And for Diggs, he's been in a slot on like 41% of his snaps. AJ Terrell never goes into the slot. So, it's going to be Terrell versus Kahan Booty, which is like actually a kind of fun matchup.
Uh, but Diggs has an easier matchup by a long shot here. And if if they have to pass the ball a little bit more, maybe he plays more snaps than they typically done. So, I think it's like a good week for Steph Diggs to kind of get going based off of the kind of context of the the game environment.
Question. If Raandre misses, who are you going to be ranking higher? Darren Johnson, Terrell Jennings, or Trevon Henderson?
I have to do more research. It's hard to say.
Okay.
I think just quickly for Trayvon, it's like I would probably move him. I'm looking at my rankings by Rico Dattle, David Montgomery, you know, wide rece or running back 24ish, you know, something in that ballpark.
Xavier Worthy, your wide receiver 24. This is in that same game against the Buffalo Bills with an astronomical team total. Uh, it's interesting like the Taekquin Thornton stuff has completely gone away obviously.
Sad.
I mean, really sad to be honest. They wouldn't have as many wins without him this season. Oh, yeah. For being true and real here. uh he is I guess taking over that downfield role, but at the same time it is so much and it makes sense. This is how they've been winning games over the last few years. So much Rice and Kelsey and then even some Guju stuff over the middle that like the Xavier Worthy effect uh is not as impactful as it has been in the past. Yeah.
But I could still see a game where he does score a long touchdown or has a massive week on top of it. his profile is starting to look more Deshawn Jacksony and he was like a boom bust wide receiver three on good offenses and like during his prime and I think that's what Xavier Worth is going to be in this offense now this offense is so damn good now that I do think uh Xavier Worthy can have some big games I think it's going to be harder to you know like ride out the floor because there's not going to be one um so last two games his expected points are like equivalent to like the wide receiver 45 in usage and that's when Rice was out there and the three healthy games before that it was at wide receiver 14 usage. So, um, still really like the the matchup in general. We talked about the slow paced uh, safeties that they got over there and Xavier Worththing can get over the top of them. Did want to make one shout out for the Bills defense. Uh, Maxwell Haristen who is extremely fast uh, coming off an injury. He's back. He played and made his debut last week and I thought he looked really good, too.
Uh, he can actually run with Xavier Worthy. So, Harrison's like in a rotation. He's not a full-time starter, but he does play on the outside where Xavier Worthy's going to be. Uh there's going to be a couple routes, I think, down the field where it's gonna be those two guys chasing each other and that's going to be like very fun uh TV to watch.
And maybe he is a starter this week. You know, he was a first round pick and just coming back from injury. So, at any point they could make him a full-time starter on that defense. That needs Yep.
Okay, let's have a fun conversation here because I'm seeing a bunch of comments. I'm getting a bunch of comments of, hey, I have both Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Uh who should I start? So, first BTJ uh has been up and down to say the least in terms of his hands, in terms of his ability and his usage in early season stuff was fantastic. Then we got the by-week and both Liam Cohen said, "Hey, we're going to play the best 11 players out there." And then all the beat writers said, "Now Travis Hunter, because of partially how BTJ has been playing, is going to see wide receiver one looks." Then Cameron Wolf went to NFL Network and re reiterated that saying that hey Travis Hunter is going to get wide receiver one looks. Hayden, we're talking about Travis Hunter who is the wide receiver 53 in points per game. He is your wide receiver 26 and he's consensus rankings wide receiver 26. So, does all of it take is the head coach to vaguely mention that Travis Hunter is going to be this team's number one wide receiver for him to immediately catapult into top 26 wide receiver status?
This is one where we're just playing games. We have no freaking idea. I think it makes sense what all the reports are saying, what Liam Cohen is saying is we got to get our top 11 out there. I think that uh section was a shot at what Dame Brown and Parker Washington have been doing, which is just dropping the ball. also. So like Brian Thomas gets the headliners because he's a first round pick and he's we should be grading him like that. But the other two guys have been very bad in general. So I think getting Travis Hunter on that side of the ball does make sense because their quarterback group is actually uh rock solid right now. So I'm expecting a lot of 11 personnel for Jacksonville and I really hope that Travis Hunter can graduate to the two wide receiver set stuff uh on top of that. We'll see. I think for both of these guys the matchup is elite. You get the Raiders secondary. They play a lot of zone coverage. I think their zone coverage has been horrific this year. Uh it's very very easy to beat. Uh it's very vanilla in general. And then Max Crosby with that knee injury, did not practice on Wednesday. We'll see if he can go, but he's like truly their entire defense right now. So both of these guys can go. My last note for Brian Thomas, he was wearing a non-cont jersey in practice listed with the shoulder injury and then on one of his I think it was one of his drops on the sideline, he kind of went down and he was grabbing at his shoulder. We've talked about the wrist injury. So, he's one of these guys where it's like I can already see the the headlines in the offseason where it's like, did you know Brian Thomas was playing with this, this, this, and this, and this this year. Uh, and I I somewhat believe it. Um, but at the same time, this one like deserves to be ranked backtoback and I can kind of see Travis Hunter taking over pretty quickly.
I heard he petitioned the NFL to play in that non-cont jersey this weekend.
Very funny. Very funny.
Um, okay. So, big question here. If you have both Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter in your fantasy lineups, which one are you starting and you can only start one?
Um, I'll go Brian Thomas, but if he's limited the entire week, then I will switch it to Travis Hunter. So, just based off the injury. Um, also these Brian Thomas plus Travis Hunter teams, what's their record in fantasy this year? It can't be great.
Final point, and you know, Jaguars fans know this after watching the Gus Bradley stuff. Raiders, like you said, play a ton of single high. So, we should get more downfield looks than we normally get from this offense, right? We went back to look at Liam Cohen's stuff last year. A bunch of their passes around like 17 yards and Baker was around 30th in the NFL and 20 plus yard. It's gotten a little bit better with Trevor, especially, you know, the game before the bye-week when you're down 31 nothing at halftime, you have to force the football down the field. Uh, so he's now up to 20th in 20 plus yard targets, uh, just attempt percentage wise. Look, Travis Hunter has changed games. He's helped win them games. San Francisco, Kansas City, downfield receptions that are contested catches. If we see him in two wide receiver sets on the opening series, I am going to do laps around my house that I'm so happy.
And I I'm just a little bit nervous that a singular by-week is going to allow us to get there. And if it does, then hey, you should just been doing that from the jump, you know? like you can't say, "Oh, we just slowly ramped it up so we're four and three in week nine."
Um, anyways, I I hope it's true. At at the very least, if it is three wide receiver sets, don't just make it choice route stuff over and over and over again. Have it be like legit intermediate and downfield routes.
I think they've done that for a while now. I think even a couple of his dead dead weeks in the box score, he was still running those downfield routes and it was just about like actually, you know, completing those passes. So, it's certainly going up up and up. And then post by Ricky B. This could be like a legendary post by Ricky Bub like, "All right, we did an experiment and then guess what? Like, it's really time to go."
I and I want it to happen and I think he has the talent to do it at wide receiver, too. Like,
Oh god. Yeah.
I I'm a I'm a believer in Travis Hunter. Jordan Addison is your wide receiver, 27. Uh, this is at the Detroit Lions. Hayden, I don't believe we've ever seen Jordan Addison and JJ McCarthy on the field together.
We have not. Um, so it' be interesting. Uh, I'm nervous in general just about everything. Um, now I can only rank Jordan Madison so low because he's so damn dominant. So like this month he's a wide receiver 13, a wide receiver 13 usage. Uh, over the last 365 days he's a top 16 fantasy wide receiver. So I'm knocking him because the game environment is supposed to be bad here. Team total is at 20 points. And then the just JJ McCarthy just not as accurate as Carson Wentz is because like they just don't have the right chemistry.
Statement. I mean, it's true. Like,
It's true.
That just it hit me like a car when you said that.
Well, completion percentage of respected negative seven the worst in the NFL and Carson Wentz has been above average and the whole the whole time it's his feet not lined up the timing of the route and that leads to inaccuracies. Like that's what they keep saying.
I'm I wasn't saying you're wrong. It just when you said that it like a what?
I know. And still Jordan Addison's so good that I would still play it.
Okay. Romeo Dobs, wide receiver, 28. Uh, again, this is against the Carolina Panthers, who have some corners, but they also run a ton of single high stuff. And we know that Jordan Love loves to throw downfield, 20 plus shots, super ambitious passer. So, Romeo Dobs can get those. Christian Watson can get those. And, uh, maybe they'll feel good and woke up on the right side of the bed and Matthew Golden gets one of them.
Yeah, he'll get he'll get us one. Roma Dobs will get his seven targets. And Dob's a hell of a football player, man. Uh the team total just it's at 29 points. Like you ha you have to start the wide receiver one on teams projected for 29 points even when there's you know like the targets aren't as elite as other players. So he's been the red zone guy of the wide receiver group for the last couple seasons. I think he's looks better this year than he did previously. And yeah, they're projected for basically the most points on the week.
Let's keep it moving. Quinton Johnston is your wide receiver 29 and then Keen Allen is wide receiver 30. Uh the only Keen Allen stat that I planned to bring up was that if he's you know seeing a snap decrease most of all it's going to impact his end zone targets and you know when he scores a touchdown he's a really good fantasy scorer. When he doesn't he just simply hasn't been. And we know like those first three games of the season, he was finding the soft areas and zone and like if Trey Harris is playing those single wide receiver snaps and then
you know Quinn Johnson is back here in the runway routes and you have Aronda Gatson and they're actually running the football now effectively in the low red too. Then uh that does make me really concerned here for now.
Yeah. Yeah. And then sometimes even the like 11 personnel stuff, the Ronda Gatsson touchdown that was like right in front of my face at SoFi was like he was in the slot and like that's like legit competition because of how good like baby Darren Waller is. So um I think all that said like there's obvious concerns now with Quinton Johnson. You put up a goose egg. There's some concerns. Then with Keenan Allen, he's not playing as much. There's some concerns. And still they're projected for 26 points. Legarius Sneed is on injured reserve. You trade away Roger McCreary for some reason that we can't even explain. And their defensive linemen are not going to play because of injuries. So they can only you can only rank these guys so low.
Quinn Johnson, by the way, last three games, six catches for 70 yards combined.
I think he's a great buy low candidate. He still runs most of the routes and this offense is going to be very good uh the rest of the way and their defense is kind of stalled out in general and he would be a great like ladders play, you know, just kind of like going for upshot uh upside. He's only at 38 and a half receiving yards in the pick and lobby. That feels low and like I get he might be extremely boom bust moving forward.
He's going to have 100 yards and a touchdown games uh by the end of the season. Like he's he's proven himself too much and this offense is going to be too good down the field. This is probably the deepest receiving group in the NFL now that we have Gatsson. Do you think that's true? Like the deepest they go like you said four four guys you can throw the ball to that are like above average players.
Probably.
That's insane.
Uh it's certainly not the Buffalo Bills. Clear is next. He's wide receiver 31. Uh catch a short pass, run it 60 yards. Let's do it. Let's run after catch. You know what's funny? Obviously, the Bills have been very good and winning games despite not having, you know, a true primary target. I think what they traded a third or a fourth round pick for uh Amari Cooper last year and that was so dreadful and he was inactive and like didn't play. It's almost like they looked at the Chiefs and they were like, "Oh, well, Patrick Mahomes is winning without these like top targets and everything's underneath. We can do the same thing." Whereas the Chiefs were continuously searching to not be that, but just suspensions, injuries, so on and so forth was forcing them to be that way. And then now there is really no out for the Bills passing attack to not be this,
right?
Yep. They could have drafted Xavier Worthy. I think that would be pretty fun if the Bills had a player like that. So they just don't. And I see it the same way. like this offense is obviously very good and they could win the Super Bowl but with this uh team still but at the same time like watching their offense when James Cook's not ripping off these huge runs which he does a lot. Uh the pass game is like man it's good but it's not elite and like that's sad because how good Josh Allen is. Um Josh Palmer did not practice with a knee injury. Uh Khalil Shakir I think looked much better in the last couple weeks uh after that training camp injury. So over the last 365 days he's the wide receiver 41. But this is a good matchup because they're expected to lose this game. Two-point uh dogs at home and then Trent McDuffy plays on the outside where Khlo Shakir does not typically go. So it's a good matchup. Historically the Chiefs, they're they're really good on defense. The one spot that if you did say where they weak at, it's always against slot wide receivers. So I think it's a good point. I would not be surprised if like they say, "Guess what? Kalista Kir is our best guy to throw the football to and we just have to spam them." Literally every national reporter on their podcast has mentioned Rashid Shahid to the Bills. Like every single one. So we'll see if that happens. Wandell Robinson is your wide receiver 32. This is against San Francisco 49ers. What do you want to add to Man, to be honest with you, Hayden, I don't even know what Wel Robinson did last week for this Giants offense.
Yeah, it wasn't low uh very good. It was a season low 5.1 expected points. Um it was all Darius Sllayton and Theo Johnson drops.
Uh it's a much better spot this week though. Um you're not playing the Eagles which is nice. The 49ers, their best defensive lineman and plus Fred Warner are not going to play in this one. The Giants team total is up at 23 points. That's pretty pretty solid here. Upton Stout, the slot corner for the 49ers, has been playing with an injury. He was limited on Wednesday. That's who Wandell would be going up against. Uh and Wanda, even though he's a slot wide receiver, played a 97% of the drop backs last week, even with Darius Sllayton out there. So, this is where he's been, you know, even like the last month or like disregard that one crazy game with Russ where he was like all of a sudden a downfield threat, he's been a wide receiver three, a lowend wide receiver three with Jackson Dart. And I I think that's fair.
We have to go all the way to wide receiver 33 for the Saints first pass catcher on the board. That is Chris Olive at the LA Rams. Uh, what are you expecting any different with Olive with Tyler Shuck? I say that by we've already seen two different versions of Chris Olive this season. In some games, he's the downfield threat and then most of the other games he's the lower A dot higher gimme type player.
Yeah, My question to you would be like, is this an overreaction? Because he's been way better than this in fantasy for this.
I think it's a bit of an overreaction. Yes.
Yeah.
So, he's projected for 55 receiving yards. A lot of the players we talked about are in like the high 40s.
Um, I think I would put him ahead of Quinton Johnson.
Okay, Let's do it. Let's do it.
Okay, here's somebody I've been struggling with. Now, here's the negatives. Um one, I always talk about quarterback experience and how much I value that now. Like the more football I watch, the more I just firmly believe that's a a true thing that we should be accounting for. It's Tyler Shuck's first career start. The Rams are second best in passing EPA allowed. That's before they just traded for Roger McCreary who's gonna start in the slot and gonna be matching up against Chris Ave because he's been moving into the slot a little bit more. Uh Tyler Stuck doesn't have Eric McCoy, the starting center. Uh every single quarterback they always talk about how important the center is. Well, now you have the backup center uh as well. Um and they're projected for 14.75 points. So like there's reasons to be concerned here. It's just trying to find that balance like in full PPR and stuff. He's you you got to start him. he's going to get fed the ball in half PPR and stuff. I don't think he's a must start, which is sad because this month he's been like the wide receiver 10.
Yeah, When in doubt, just go to the PPR scam uh for this offense.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And it gets like really bad from here on out. Like Jawan Jennings is for you. This is the first time we're talking about a 49ers wide receiver here, but I even think I saw this correctly. K Shannon went the mic and said, "Uh, yeah, Jawan Jennings, uh, he basically got his season stolen from him due to injury this year and missing training camp and that might extend for multiple weeks from here on out."
Oh, I didn't see that last part. Um, I agree that his season has been completely stolen from him and it's like hard to rank him as well because everything about the environments like Jawan Jennings has a chance to have a good week. They're projected for 25 and a half points. Brock Pury is going to be back. I think Ricky Pierce and Brandon Iayuk are not expected to be back. Paulson Adiva, the Giants number one corner plus two backup corners are DNPs on the practice report. They didn't play this last game or slash left uh in the previous game. And the Giants have allowed 12 wide receivers to reach at least 10 half PPR points this year. And we have not played 12 uh weeks so far. So multiple guys can get home against them. And at at least Jawan Jennings is like a full participant in practice now. you know, like that he was playing a lot of weeks it was like limited the entire week would give it a go and then he would let you know how many ribs he broke.
Now he's at least fully participating and was a full-time player last week. So like if if there was a player we can like throw away the entire season kind of restart now, he would be one of these guys until Pier and Na come back and then we're going to have more discussions. But it's kind of like that Goldilocks zone.
Troy Franklin is next as wide receiver 35. Uh he never gets any love from the public. He's wide receiver 43 in consensus rankings.
Well, it depends on what uh Discord you're in because he gets a lot of pub from for some discords and then not a whole lot from others. So,
Brenley's Discord loves him.
Yeah, Brenley's would be one. Ship Chasing and those guys uh would be another. Marvin Mims DNP with concussion. He left late in in the last game. Marvin Mims DNP with concussion. He left late in in the last game. Uh and Troy Franklin should be playing uh a lot here. He's been a near full-time player now. Now, it's a whole lot different going from the Dallas Cowboys to in still in Texas, but now you get Dererick Stingley and Kamari Lacier and Caitlin Bolick and the duo up front. So, we'll see. The team total has been cut in half. Uh they scored what 44 points last week. They're projected for for 19. So, adjustments need to be made.
All right. Alec Pierce is next. A really fun player.
Uh yeah,
not the best fantasy asset. I mean, he's averaging a careerhigh in receptions, which is great. That's only at three per game right now.
Yeah, he's been the wide receivers 68, 44, 35, 45, 22, and 39.
I will add though that the Steelers have allowed a league high 182 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Uh, and Alec Pierce, if his 40yard pass goes for a touchdown, that's difference of, you know, 10 and a half points versus four and a half points.
Yep. Yeah. Was he the same way? He's a better real life player than the fantasy player, but the Steelers have been so bad that this could be a week where you can start him. So this month he's a wide receiver 39, a wide receiver 38 usage. I got him as a my wide receiver 36. Josh Downs hip injury. We don't know if he's going to play, but yeah, in my notes there are far worse dart throws. He's not a surefire starter, but you can go worse than a good player in elite offense. You will hear from every single football podcast that you listen to from now to the end of the season that will say, "Hey, watch out for Alec Pearson for agency. He's going to get a big contract that people aren't expecting."
Yeah, we said it. Guilty.
It's true, though.
Jameson Williams is wide receiver, 37. This is against the Minnesota Vikings. Uh he only has 17 receptions in seven games, which is actually outrageous. Um, we've talked about this a ton and I even put a tweet out earlier today because, you know, he's a 17 AOT. He's basically just running love the game win sprints out there and then it's just not a combination when you have a 17 yard A dot and a career low target rate and your team is also winning a lot and their neutral pass rate doesn't have to be that high. Um, it's just so different, as we discuss every single week, than it was last season when Sam Laora was banged up and they were giving him gimmies on these crossers with coverage pushing everything away and then he gets a run after the catch. Uh, I think his ADOT is like double what it was last year and his percent of 20 plus yard targets is double what it was last year.
Certainly feel it. And then this just a matchup where historically Jameson Williams has not been involved. So, he's had 34 yards, negative four yards, 43 yards, 41 yards against the Minnesota Vikings in the last two seasons. So, pick and lobby agrees at 44 and a half yards. I keep saying it, spin the wheel. Is this going to be the game where you hit and it's it's the 80 yard touchdown or is it going to be like, you know, the rest of the season? So, that's the choices that you guys want to make here. Um, now you really want to look in the Vikings have been exposed down the field. Um, so like I think there will be some shot plays and he's a better football player than his box score, but I do think the Sam Laaporta onoff splits are like really starting to make sense to me and if you look into the data, it's very very true.
Okay, the last three, Darius Leightton, your guy, Jacobe Meyers, your guy, and uh Kahan Booty, Nick Rdman's guy, uh who by the way has touchdowns of 39, 39, 29, 25, and 16 yards this year. Yeah, I had to uh rank Kahan Budy lower uh this week because he gets AJ Terrell and Jesse Bates. Um but been the wide receiver nine this month.
Dude, he is spinning dudes like a top with his routes.
It's super impressive stuff. Um I'll make the case for Darius Sllayton and we don't have to say anything about Jacobe.
Shocking.
This man uh was robbed of a 68 yard touchdown last week and he also had like a kind of one-handed drop um with Quinnon Mitchell in his grill. That's just not going to be the case with the 49ers secondary. And if they can't rush the passer, Jackson Dart's so effective at buying time, which Darius Sllayton needs because he's a downfield threat. And Jackson Dart's so aggressive. So, I think that just the overlap of what Jackson Dart's good at and what Darius Sllayton's good at, will start to show itself and he's going to start playing more routes uh the more he comes back from this injury. So, he's more like a DFS dart throw play or if you're in a really deep league, you're just like praying for somebody. But remember, he's like a team captain, well paid. He's been effective uh in previous uh stints before, and the team is much better now than it has been uh since he's been on the team.
And I would say wide receiver is stronger this week than it has been in recent ones. I mean,
DK didn't even make your list of the Tennessee Titans. Let's not forget,
and this probably wasn't brought up enough when he first broke out after, you know, the Tyler Locket uh release, the Titans drafted him over Ella. you know, they play different spots, but they drafted him over him. Uh, and he has a 32% target share in the red zone, which is tied for seventh most this season. He's played 93% of the drop back since Tyler Lockett's been
off this roster. So, I think DK is an interesting flex play for people out there. And then DJ Moore is your wide receiver 42.
Uh, five weeks scoring as the wide receiver 40 or later. His highscoring week this year is wide receiver 29 even despite being drafted as wide receiver 25 when drafts closed in September. Josh DS your wide receiver 43, Christian Watson 44, and Rashid Shahed 45. So there's like a lot of names.
Yeah. Yep. Darn Mooney right after that. You can go worse than Kendrick Bourne, Keon Coleman, Matthew Golden, Rashad Baitman. Just like good offenses, you know, like there's it's a pretty strong week. This was like a difficult week for for rankings for me, but that's that's a good thing. I I think it went back to the running back show where I think 16 teams are projected for 24 or more points this week. Like that's that's fun stuff.
All right, that's going to do it. Uh we'll have our quarterback and tight end show tomorrow on Friday of this week. So everything got moved one day ahead. Appreciate you all tuning in and watching up the villa. We'll talk to you'all soon. See you.