Market Breadth Turning NOW - This Commodity Signal

S&P hit all-time highs. Look, guys, we have a lot to go over today, a lot to jump into with what's going on with gold, what's going on with the breadth of the market. I'm just going to jump right into it. There are a couple parts of this you're going to want to watch. Again, there's a lot of fundamental analysis behind what's going on with critical minerals. So, let's just do it. As always, subscribe, click all notifications.

In front of us is the New York Stock Exchange. And on top of that, I also have the advanced decline line on the bottom. And we're going to notice a couple things here. And I think it's super important for us to just understand the way that you should use the ADL. This is again, advanced decline. And obviously, you can just see that it just keeps on going. But there are these little bumps in the road. And those bumps are a great way for us to determine whether or not we have something or don't have something. Meaning, do you have a bottom? Do you not have a bottom?

So I just want to show you something very quickly. I'm not going to go all the way back here and just keep going. I'm going to just pick something from like '23, '24, but you could play with this as well. And when people ask me about this indicator, all I did was just type in "advanced decline line" to get this. If you can't find it, just drop it in the comments and I will, uh, have it and I will happily share it with you. But, uh, it's pretty easy to find on TradingView.

There are a couple things I'm just going to point out, and we might as well just start in 2020 so you can see, like, the easiest way to use this. If I go and draw a line from the top over, we could see the breakout is here. That's not what you do. You take the ADL and you wait for the ADL breakout. I don't know where that voice is coming from, but we're just going to power through it. So, here we go. But you see where the, see where it is right here. And you see how you started breaking out and you're breaking out of that range here. Look, look at it. And I'll, I'll pull this up a little bit more right here. And we can just kind of see how you're breaking out of it. Now, look at us. Kind of pulls back and then it goes, right? All right. So when did that real breakout happen here on the ADL? That happened June 20. All right. Or June 2020. All right. Great. So if we go there, we can see that Monday, June 8th, 2020. That's when the breakout. Look at where you were here on the market. You were at 128. So instead of being one of those people that's waiting for this to break out and move, what did this do for the New York Stock Exchange? How, how could you have benefited from this? All right. Well, that would have got you into the New York Stock Exchange 9.48% higher. We are always fighting for inches. And that's the way that I always try to explain this about the market. So, we're always looking for an edge.

If we go and take a look at the disgusting rounding pattern here that JPAL got us in with his 1.7 trillion. You guys remember that? Remember JPEGs were actually called NFTs. Some people still have those things. Okay. Uh, but if we take a look at that rounding pattern, you can see right in here when we blow it up, what's already happening up here by the time that that rounding pattern is starting. By the time that rounding pattern is starting, let's drop this down a little bit. We're just going to keep rocking unedited. It's a lot better. But you can see that you have a high here and then you have a lower high here. A high here and a lower high here. What do you have here? A high and a higher high. So really, what you have here, and we'll just clean this all off now so that you can see this, is you have what we refer to as a negative divergence. Meaning, you're dropping here and at the same time you're dropping and the breadth is getting worse, the stocks going higher. So that is a textbook. You have a problem. And when you see those things, it's best to acknowledge the problem and not run away from it.

So if we look here and we go back to this '22 area to '20, like right in here, you can see that bottoming, possible bottoming. And there are other things that I use as well. I use RSI. But when you can start layering stuff, I think you find great value in it. Right? So you can see this here and you can see how you're still in the same area, but look at what tends to happen here as you're in this area. Now look what happens and you start to break out right here and you're breaking out right into that area. At the same time, you've hit this area several different times. But as you're bonking along here, what's happening? The breadth of the market is getting better. And the breadth of the market gets better until it goes, "Okay, we're done raising rates faster than any time in US history. We think we did a great job." And then the market just explodes. But the breadth of the market is already telling you in here as you're not hitting a higher high, you're hitting a lower high. And you can see that I'll clean these all off again to show you it. But you're seeing that lower high. And the whole purpose of me doing this is to just get people to start getting more education as we do these Saturday classes on how I utilize these tools. So, all right.

So, we're hitting that lower high and you're pretty much in line with these peaks. You break out over here and you're looking, go, well, that's roughly, yeah, that's definitely better than where we were. And then it just, we just rip. And that rip, and then you're saying to yourself, well, how, how sustainable is that rip? Well, if the breadth of the market continues to get better the entire time, then the rip is sustainable. And that's really one of the things that we have to focus on, right? That is going to tell you a lot. If that rip, if you're just ripping and the market's sitting there ripping with you, you're pretty good.

So when we look at the New York Stock Exchange now, you'll notice obviously we have that drop here and when we had all that winning and liberation, so much winning and liberation, they had to pause it. And then we can see where it flips right in here and it flips again before you even get to the higher high. Once again, probably saving you at least 5%. So these are really important for people to get.

So, when we see this stuff where we're kind of bonking along and then we're saying, "Oh, well, this is bad," or "the breadth is bad," or "we're looking at the volume and we don't have any volume," whatever, boomer, we're watching this just continually grind higher and the breadth of the market is just getting better and better. And it's really not that hard to see when you look at it this way. Now, when this starts to downturn again and the market's going higher, you'll be ready for it because you'll be like, "Oh, all I have to do is watch the ADL line, and if this starts to roll over, this is definitely something that I would pay attention to 100%." And that is a great way to use it. You always want to see when you're having these pullbacks, you know, does the ADL continue to push? And the ADL over the NYA will always lift, almost, I should say it this way, will almost always lift first. The breadth will almost always get better. And the great thing about that is if it doesn't, you don't have to be in a hurry. But when you see these little pullbacks, whether they're in September or wherever they are, even September 2nd, you're like, "Oh, I don't know. That was pretty, that was pretty nasty. You know, what are we going to do here?" And you're like, "Oh, the breadth is going higher." The chances of the breadth going higher and the market not catching up to it, they're pretty slim. Eventually, it usually does. It almost has to if you think about it.

We can do the same thing with the NDX. Now, this is where, to me, it gets super interesting because if we take a look at the NDX and we look at the ADL, we can see that you have this DTL right here, downward trend line. But you really have more than that. I'm not going to go all the way back to this point with it. I mean, obviously you could, uh, but I think what you want to do is take the body right here and then just look and say, okay, you're pretty, you're pretty wedged in here, right? So, if we look at the market as a whole from this area, what are we noticing? Well, this is pretty commensurate, meaning we're, we're pretty much following what the market's doing. If we get a higher high in here with something, and then we just add a little alert there when it gets up in that area because you can add alerts to it. Or if you were saying, "Oh, I don't know. I think we're definitely going to roll over." What you do, let's just work with me, not against me. And then we're going to go right in there. We're going to drop that little area right in there and click on it. Perfect. Now, what is that doing? I'm completely wedged in on the ADL on the NDX. So when one of my alerts go off, if I break to the downside here and I'm pushing higher, I have to realize like, hey, the, this huge rally that I think might happen here on this breakout might not happen. And that could be a problem. Same thing as if, if I break out and my thought process is, oh, we're going to zero. This is all fake. AI is an illusion. Wherever you guys are, that's good to tell you like, hey, it might be an illusion, but it's not an illusion this week, and it's going to push higher. So, you just might want to ride the wave and deal with it. Once again, what we're trying to do here is just trade what's in front of us, not what we think's going to happen. We can always have our opinions, but at the end of the day, we just really want to trade what is in front of us, and that, that usually will play out a little bit better.

If you look at the NDX, you can see how you're wedged in here, but I thought that this was super interesting because the NDX is has not caught up yet. And when the NDX, if and when the NDX starts hitting new highs, you're going to want to pay attention to it because when you're hitting new highs, that's what you want to watch. You can literally look at this and see how you fell down through all this, where you were the day that the ADL bottomed out on a line and where the ADL lifted. And you can actually see on a chart, and this is why I really like this as a tool, because it actually like if you're looking at the chart from this perspective, you'd be like, man, we're, we're hosed. Like, we're really hosed here. And let me just flip that real quick. See how it's still dropping? All right. See the little turn? So, on that little turn, and I'm not saying that you're going to nail it, but if you're here and you're like, you know, I don't know, we hit this level. There's a lot going on. I could be using RSI with this as well. And if I used RSI with it, you would say you would see that you pretty much were there. But, um, and I tend to use RSI as well with this. But the RSI is going to give me an indicator that's going to determine the magnitude of the move, right? That's what it does. People use it as a momentum indicator. I use it more for a magnitude indicator, but doesn't really matter. If, if you think about it, no matter how you're using it, it's going to get you roughly to the same conclusion, but that doesn't mean that I'm right when I look at the RSI because the RSI is determining one thing. The RSI is not telling me squat about the breadth, right? The breadth of the market. If, so, if, if I have my indicator kick off on the RSI and at the same time that kicks off that the ADL starts uptick, that's what you want to pay attention to. Goldman put out a piece literally this day saying we bottomed. And when I go back and look at this, it's pretty clear to me what they, what they look at. And that's one of the reasons when people always ask like, well, why, why are you so big on, you know, the RSI?

So, if I look at the RSI here, for example, on the four-hour and go, "All right, well, here's where we're at." And I look at this now. I don't really use the moving average. A lot of people will, and you should do what you're comfortable with. It does. It's pretty clean when you do use the moving average. There's nothing wrong with it. It's just that I've gotten, you know, I've been doing it 20-some years, so I, I kind of understand where the, the, the line is at this point after staring at it forever. But this is telling you like, oh, hey, we, we probably bottomed, but we don't know that. So, we always want to go to that next thing. Anything that, anytime that we can lever, we want to lever. And I think that that's really important for people to get. But if I was to look at this right now, you'd have to say, well, we're over the 50 line, right? And we're back in this area, which is where you want to be. But we're not out of the woods. And you know, when we start talking about some of this other stuff, I think we need to relate this to what's really going on with commodities as well.

Now, before we go any further, because I'm always say, "Well, what are we supposed to get, get from this?" What you're supposed to get from this is that the NYA, the New York Stock Exchange, is hitting all-time highs on the breadth. So, that's very good. The other thing you should be taking from it is the NDX has not caught up yet, but it's setting itself up to catch up and we are going to monitor this very, very closely.

Now, before we get into the chart, technically, as, as people have been watching this channel for some time, and if you're in the community, you already know this. I do a ton of research and I did a ton of research this weekend so far on silver and how long this could possibly go on. Uh, that's pretty much what I did with my Friday night. But it's fascinating to me what's, what's going on here. So I probably going to put this out in, uh, the whole thing is about four or six pages. Uh, I'm probably going to put this out in the free newsletter, uh, the whole thing. So if you want to, uh, you know, follow along with it, just subscribe to it. It's free. Uh, link will be in description. But there's some, there's some things here that I think were really pretty interesting. Um, and I want to share them. So we're just going to start.

So, silver delivered its biggest move in a long time, 7.6%. Uh, what people are not really understanding is that China implements a sweeping export restriction in January 1st. Um, they control 60, 70% of all global supply of silver. And I don't, a lot of people are like, "Oh, they're doing this on purpose, blah, blah, blah." The play tough, you know, guy. There's a reason why they need the silver, which is kind of interesting. We're going to get to that. Uh, the deadline approaches. Market participants are scrambling to secure physical silver. This is where it gets really interesting because the thing that people don't understand about futures contracts, and I would really, I always say this to people, learn what the heck you're trading because when you find out that you can get the physical delivery, this is like when you had a run on oil if people remember, and all of a sudden oil went negative because people found out that they are about to get physical delivery of a barrel of oil for every single one that they owned. Um, when that's when it went negative. I think it dropped to like negative 20 or negative 40, that because people are like, "What am I going to do with oil?" You know, when they show up at your doorstep with it. Uh, but, you know, if you could hold through that, you made a killing. Anyway, uh, year-to-date gain propelling silver's total market capitalization approximately 4 trillion, surpassing even, even Apple's valuation. Okay. Well, it's a commodity. Whatever. Silver premiums have exploded over 80, uh, per ounce. Inventories have plunged 70%. So, silver premiums in Shanghai are 80 an ounce, but the inventories to deliver because if you own a future, see, futures market was created for farmers. That's why the whole darn thing was created so that they knew what they could sell their corn or their wheat or their barley for. That's why they created the futures market. And what people don't understand is that you are supposed to deliver. They are using it as a hedge. "We will sell you wheat at $7 or whatever the heck wheat's trading at right now." It doesn't matter. They wanted to be able to do that. What they did, it was they did it with silver. They did it with gold. So if someone says, "I own this," you have to deliver it to me. You have to deliver it to them. That's just the way that it is. Super important to get that. And I don't think a lot of people that trade in futures or look at the futures market truly understand that.

As I stated, this article is like six pages. We're not going to go through all of it, but I just want to go through what I think are some highlights. Not all of them, but enough that you're going to get what's going on here. Uh, and then you'll understand what we're, what, when I say "we," what the US is doing on the critical mineral side. Uh, which is kind of interesting too, and we should cover that. But a five-year cumulative deficit, 800 million ounces, nearly a full year's supply. So, what's the deficit out there right now? 800 million ounces. That's the deficit that's just sitting floating around in the ether right now, which is kind of crazy considering that they're out there trading futures. You'd have to mine for a full year in order to get there. That's what I came up with. But, you know, you guys, if you have something different, drop it in the comments. Uh, but they are 67% of global supply. They are talking looking at putting the tap on in five days. Do they extend it? Do they not? I have no idea. Um, if you look at the London inventories, they are at lows. I'll get into some of that. Uh, paper to physical, 361 to 365 to one. Demand is there. There is no substitute for it. What do you need it for? Why do you care? Solar panels. 20% of all of this demand for silver. You know where it's going. China solar panels. Uh, the Fed policy reducing opportunity costs to lever. Um, I put it in there. I don't think it's the biggest thing. Geopolitical uncertainty driving safe haven flows. Yeah, you could buy gold. So, is it an issue? Yeah, but it's not the issue. The issue for me is the deficit and China shutting off the tap. I think this is important to get when we looked at the five-year deficit. If we look at what happens every year, where are we every year? 230 million ounces annually, every year. So, not only are you in a deficit, the deficit's actually getting worse. So, you're at 1.24, right? And then you're, you're coming out with a billion. So, what's going to happen is they're eventually going to cut down the futures contracts. They're understand why. Remember the physicality part of this.

Now, when we talked about this deficit, what we're seeing is that that deficit could double is where some of these, these guys are coming in. UBS is all over this, but thinks it's, it's crazy and it's a fervor. It's a fervor as long as China says, "Okay, just kidding." Uh, if not, you know, you're going to find out in five days. Um, if China's like, "No, this is what we're doing," then there's a real issue here. But Shanghai silver inventories are at 10-year lows, uh, 30 days of usable silver at current consumption rates. Well, you can't run a business like that. I put this wording in here of licensing frameworks, but here's the thing about that. To some extent, they need it, and they need it because 20% of global, global silver supply is solar panels for China. Um, you know, they do a lot with electric vehicles. Western manufacturer, no substitute. There's no substitute for it. So, here's where this gets super interesting. If this is a chokehold and people like Tesla need it, like where's that growth coming from if you can't get the supply? And I think that's really very interesting and I don't think a lot of people are looking at that. These other names that were out there with rare earth, you all saw how those, no, those names moved. D, uh, a lot of them really bracketed recently. And this is exactly what I'm talking about.

So, some of these lines we've already gone over, but this right here, COMEX registered silver inventories have been slashed, deliverable on futures contracts. So, they're registered silver inventories, meaning if you don't have it, you can't go out there and create the futures contract. Well, that means that not only are you trading these, but there's less of them. So, if there's less of them and they're dropping them from 30 million ounces to just 168, uh, 168, you're essentially cutting them in half. So, when you think about it that way, it's an issue. And then you have this server outage on Thanksgiving. I, I do believe there was something to that, um, with silver where they, someone said, "Give me my silver." And they're like, "Uh, we don't have it." I fully believe that's pretty much what happened there.

So, most people will look at silver and they'll look at this chart and say, "Oh, it can't go higher." That's one way to look at this. The way that I would look at silver and the way that I would look at all, everything that's going on out there right now is that you have a major, major issue. And the major issue is obviously we all see the breakout here in November and we could see how it's ripped. You have a major issue out here. The first issue that I think that you have is even when this settles, and it always does settle somewhere, right? You're going to have a group of people that are just never going to allow this to happen again and they're going to hoard silver. They just are. And so they're not going to be put in that position ever again. So when we look at something like 2025 and saying, "Okay, you could have bought it at 30 and now you're at 75." I mean, silver's outperformed pretty much anything that anybody's really done this year, right? Which is kind of crazy when you think about it, but we'll get into some of those moves in a second. The question really here is, as you watch this, you know, absolutely explode up to, you know, that 80 level and now you're back down to, you know, you were at 72 and people like, "Oh, well, this is the blow-off." What is the thing that's going to fix the problem? And that's the thing that people don't understand about futures to an extent. See, futures markets can just literally gap up, hit a limit, and close. And all they have to do is just hit that limit and then that's it for the day. They do have limits like that. So it puts us in a position, and also they're pulling contracts out, right? We showed that through the physicality. So what really is going to be the mechanism that someone's going to say, "Oh, that's too much," when you don't even have the ability to get as much physical delivery as you once did? When you start to look at the problem that way from what the futures contract actually is, this can go like, and this is not what going looks like. Going looks like we're open and we keep moving. And I would, I would not think that this is over because we missed it. What I think is happening is what we saw the US do with some of its critical minerals this week. And I think they're going to put more on these lists, not less. I don't think this is going to, from what we're seeing, they're not adding less names to the critical mineral list. They're not deescalating that. If anything, they're accelerating it. And we'll see that when we look at the critical minerals. But when we look at the chart, I get it. Everyone's going to look at this and go, "Oh, for sure, like this is it. We're definitely going to, we're definitely, we're definitely going to pull back." Yeah. I, I don't know about that. I mean, obviously, you can see the clean break here that that took place. I mean, it's not rocket science. Hits it in October, comes back down, rockets through it, and then you know from there you're just rallying substantially. I think you have to look at this and say, what's going to fix the problem? I'm spending a lot of time on it on purpose because I think it's something that you need to pay attention to. What's really going to fix the problem? And the only thing that's really going to fix the problem is figuring out the delivery issue. Now, whether that comes in some kind of new pact with China, I really don't have a clue. But I can tell you this, that you need a solution to this or that silver will continue to do this. So looking at this and saying you missed it, now that you understand that, you should do what you're comfortable with.

Now, this happened on November 7th, but it's in this. I did another piece, um, on critical minerals. I think it's this one's like five pages long, and I'll probably put this out in that newsletter, the free newsletter as well, but I'm going to just take a couple blips from it. So, the US Department of Interior published yada yada yada, critical minerals, yada yada yada. All right. What are they? Uranium, coal, phosphate. Shift in mineral policy under the Trump administration. Expansion comes US grapples with resistance, reliance on foreign sources for minerals underpinning everything from semiconductors to defense to renewable energy. As we just went through with silver, what a lot of people don't know, 20% of that's going to where? China. Right? So, this is where it gets super interesting. Why? Because finding corporations that don't rely on China right now for their silver might not be a bad idea. And I'm sure there's companies out there that do that. And that takes us to the Interior. Um, and then we can see what's happening here. So this is Secretary of Interior and then what he has to say about it. "Provides clear science-based roadmap to reduce our dependence on foreign adversaries." Honestly, as you know, a citizen of this country, when you look at this, this is absolutely bananas to me that 80% of what we're relying on was imported. It's just absolutely crazy to me that this is what we were dealing with. The United States remains heavily dependent on imported many critical minerals, especially when some of these minerals are here. But many critical minerals have concentrated production on single countries, creating vulnerability, geopolitical. China controls 70 to 80% of several key ferroalloy markets, silicon, titanium, and chromium. And I think this is really important.

So, from our side of this, what are we looking at doing? Meaning the US, what are they looking at doing? Well, we're going to add, we're going to put some things, and at the time of recording this, they weren't on there, uh, but copper, silicon, silver, lead, uh, I'm not going to butcher that one, potash, all of them, which remain on the final list. So, they could be adding these to it. Now, this is where we can profit from this as traders. Now, I'm just going to show you something and you can do what you want with this, but if you go back and take a look at certain dates. So, here is SPAT Critical Minerals ETF and this is SETM, and I'm just showing you this one, but I want you to just remember this name. So, when you go into whatever your system is, you go here and you just type the word SPR, you'll see, "Oh, here's physical gold. Oh, here's uranium miners. Oh, here's physical, uh, platinum and palladium. Here's a physical gold trust. Here's physical uranium." What they are is they are physical, meaning they actually physically own that. So, if there's a market here that you're interested in, when you start going through this, you will find physical and silver gold trusts here. You will find that they actually own that, own the actual underlying asset. That is very different than a lot of these other ETFs which just might have, you know, calls or something. When you see the word "physical," they need to own it. They need to have it somewhere. And I think that's very, very important. And I think you're going to see a huge differentiation going forward between those that own something and the synthetic. But this name right here, SPRAT, when you go and do this, you'll see these and you can't miss them. You know, PSLV, then you start looking at them and seeing how they're going.

Now, the question here obviously that you have to ask yourself is, you know, which one of these do you trade? Do you trade any of them? That's up to you and what you want to do. What I, what I would point out in looking at these is that you have your choice through any of these. If you're like, "Hey, copper might be next," and copper could be next. When you look at something like FCX and how this is breaking out through that 50 level and it's just pushing. So, people use COPX for global copper ETF. It doesn't really matter which one of these you use, but I would be looking, and the ones that I would trade would have the word "physical" in them, which means that they have some level, whatever their, whatever that charter is, there's some level of physicality. I don't know if it's got to be 100%. Maybe if it's written as a trust, it does. I'm not aware of that. You could dive into that prospectus yourself, but that's what I would be focused on. You know, you should focus on what you're comfortable with. I just think that if you're not looking at this space, even now, like a lot of people are like, "Oh, well, what happened with MP?" Well, we don't need that, right? That's not, that doesn't seem to be the issue, right? When you start looking at MP, TM, TMC, these companies are going, "Well, these aren't working, so this is dead." No, you're not looking at who has the product now. And the stage that you're in is some of these mining operations are going to take five or 10 years. I own some mining operations, and I understand that I'm going to be sitting with them for a while, but I think they're going to be monsters because you're going to get to a point where you have to realize a couple things. Like, if you're hungry, you don't go and buy a cow. You go and buy a hamburger, right? But then if you realize that, hey, there's only so many hamburgers left, then you're going to go buy the darn cow, right? So, then where I'm going with this is you're not going to start mining right away. You, you, you might start building that out, but what you're really doing is you're trying to get your hands on as much silver as you possibly can. Right now, you realize that pulling it out of the ground with 30 days left in inventory is probably not the best strategy for you. But going forward, there's names that, you know, that I think are just going to be killers, like this PPTA, where eventually people are going to start realizing that, hey, this is how we used to get one very specific critical mineral for the US military in World War II. And by the way, if anybody's curious about this, China cut it off in December, which is probably really one of the reasons we had all that winning and liberation in March because they started really get like strangle holding critical minerals. And I think that his hand was for that's what I think. I'm not saying I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. I'm just saying that that's kind of where my head goes with it. But people are looking at stuff like Numont. I'm not saying not to look at that. I think what you have to do is look at this and say, "Okay, well, where's the puck going?" Right? And to me, it's really going to go into the physicality. Give it to me now. I need to secure it now. And so that's why I think trades like GLD, these kinds of names, and I don't know how they're doing. I haven't done this work yet. There's other things I want to show you. Gold in relation to the S&P because that's a fascinating chart. Uh, but if I look at gold in regards to something like a Numont, historically what happens, you know, it is historically gold versus Numont. You want to own Numont clearly, but if you really look at what's been happening since September, October, not really. No, you really haven't gone anywhere. You've kind of been in the same range. Now, you could make the argument, "Oh, well, you're here." I mean, you're talking about pennies, so it doesn't really matter, but you're not really going anywhere. And I think that the reason for this, uh, we probably could flip this to a, yeah. And look at it this way. We'll see the divergence right here because I think the goal here is to get as much physical as you possibly can at this particular time. And I think that's where this is going. But to go back to where I want you to, what I really want you to take from this when you are looking for something on the physical side, like here's the physical gold trust units, buy them. And you can just see like these things are, they're just monsters and they're probably going to continue to do this as people look for ways to hold that physicality.

Now, when we look at gold, we can see that gold is breaking out here. And one of the things that I tend to say with these kinds of moves is you want to, you want to find out why. You, you really want to find out why. Like, all right, is it silver? And then that's pulling it up, and it's, it's far from that. And what you're really seeing obviously, you had this massive, you know, from April to September where you finally popped over and then you could just see the lift and where you're at. I was reading a piece by Yardeni, uh, this weekend, and, you know, he thinks 8,000. Um, I, I think gold's going a lot higher. And I think there's a lot of reason. I'm trying not to laugh when I say it, but I, I think gold's going a lot, a lot higher. And I think there's a lot of reasons for it. I don't see, and I don't want to get into this part of it, but I, I'm going to just get it out there, and then if you're that interested, I'll explain it in another video and you can comment below. I don't see people buying the 10-year the same way as the safety net. What they're doing is they're buying the two-year. And then as they buy, what the heck was that? Oh, non-farm payrolls when we had all that winning and liberation. Uh, what I see is the two-year. I see them buying the two-year, right? Obviously, you know, you were getting nothing back here. And then, of course, we had the greatest, you know, increase in rates in history. And at one point, you were getting 5% on a two-year bond, which is just, it's crazy from the government. Like, it's just nuts. Uh, but you're still getting 3.5%. So, I don't see a lot of people looking at this and saying, "I want to go out for another eight years and get 4.15 right now." And, you know, back in my day, back in the day, when you would look at this and you would know that you're going into a cycle where they're going to cut rates, you'd be foaming at the mouth to buy the 10-year right now. Go, man, they're going to cut by 100 basis points next year. We all know they're going to cut. It's a question of how much, right? You'd be foaming at the mouth to buy the, the, the 10-year. I'm laughing at "back in my day." Anyway, so, um, and I'm just going to leave these videos raw and unedited. It's just, it's better that way. Um, and I think a lot gets lost when I edit them. So, anyway, um, I think what they're doing is, I think they're buying shorter term. Actually, I know this is what they're doing, and then they're buying an inflation hedge. So, they're buying short-term treasuries and then they're buying an inflation hedge to go along with it. So, you have higher retail demand. And there's this really good chart that we're going to have to spend some time on. Like, it's, it's really fascinating when we look at, like, gold versus the S&P. A lot of people are like, "Well, the, you know, if you, if the S&P is in gold and you look at the S&P and gold versus dollars, you know, you're not really, you know, breaking out and blah, blah, blah, blah." Like, "Okay, well, we don't trade in gold, so that's like stupid." But what you want to do is compare gold to the S&P and what's going on. And the reason that you want to do this is because it tells you like, if you go to this, look at this on a monthly. We'll do this very quickly, and then we're going to roll into some data that's like fascinating when you see who the real buyers are. And I'll go down one of my tin foil hat conspiracies on what's going to happen in our lifetime. Uh, but if, when you look at something like gold versus the S&P on a monthly chart and we overlay this, you realize that you're nowhere like you are, you are nowhere compared to where gold was. And this is actually setting up to break out. And what a lot of people assume at these breakouts is that they assume that that means that the S&P is going to come down. I don't think that's what it means. I think it might mean that gold outperforms it, and I think that that's why people are buying gold. I think that's where it could be going because you obviously you have this great financial crisis. And so what we, as you know, what we do is we always look for logic, right? And we're really looking for a story. But I think there's a really good quote on that somewhere. But anyway, the, the thing about it is, we're going to say that if we break out like we did in 2008, you'll see this all over Twitter, then surely it's going to be like 2020, and that means that, you know, when gold breaks out, that the S&P is going to roll over. What a bunch of crap. Like, okay, we had a great financial crisis here. Do we have a great financial crisis now? No. Do you have a global pandemic right now? No. Okay. So, maybe if gold breaks out, it just means that gold's breaking out and outperforming the S&P, right? So, you have to look at it like that. You know, that's just my opinion. You should have your own opinion. Gold can really move here against the S&P. And, and when we start looking at who the buyers are, and I did a, I did a lot of work on this, and it was just absolutely fascinating. Again, I'm going to put the whole thing out, I think, in one of those free newsletters. Um, I have somebody helping me with those now. But I think that here, let's, let's just take a look at some of these clips from it, and then we'll go from there. We'll come back to this.

Now, this is where it gets super interesting. If I was to say that the number one global buyer of gold is Poland, you'd be like, "There, that doesn't make any sense. It's got to be China." It's not. China's not even second, which is kind of crazy. Poland, sovereign leader. Poland is dominating this. Absolutely dominating it. So, 83 tons, more than double the second-place buyer, which they're saying is Kazakhstan. Um, we'll get to that. It's, in my opinion, it's somebody else, but, um, I do want to put it out there because that is a country. The other, the other are not really a, a country. Uh, but we'll get there. U, I thought it was really interesting that their current holdings are 26% of total reserves as of October. Uh, they've increased the amount that they're buying. So, they stated they wanted to do 20%, now it's to 30%. I can't, I can't stress this enough. Um, they reached their target and then they came out again with a new target. And a lot of people are saying, you know, why is this? So, one of the things I think, my personal opinion, and we see in our lifetime, is I think countries leave the EU. And what we do with that, I, I don't know. And I'm not a political strategist by any stretch, but I think that this is where it's heading. Uh, when I did a lot of research again on this, and I do a ton of research on this kind of stuff. If you ask somebody in 2019 how many people in Poland wanted to leave, it was 5%. You ask them now in December, how many want to leave, it's 25%. 65% want to stay. A year ago, it was 78% wanted to stay. And I think that they're looking at this, in my opinion, they're looking at this because of a couple key issues. Um, they don't really want to be told what to do with their migration policy. They don't want to be told what to do with climate. There's a lot of pushback in Poland, and things are going pretty well over there. So, they're trying to keep that, and I, I view them as doing this as trying to keep their independence. Whether they actually leave or not, I don't think there's an election over there till like '27. But super interesting, and I think this is one of the things that we're seeing.

Another thing that I thought was just absolutely fascinating, um, to me, was that Tether is number two. And if you're in crypto, to me, this should really be the thing that should be scaring you. So, you have Tether that's out there, and, oh, Bitcoin this, and we trade Bitcoin, and it's, it's all this. It's the cat's pajamas. All right. Well, 7% of total reserves are now by Tether. Tether's expanding into physicality of gold. It's, it's absolutely crazy when you think about it. So, here you have really this thing that was created out of, you know, thin air, and they're taking that thing and what are they doing? They're buying physical gold. They're not going out there and saying, "Oh, no, no, we're going to buy Bitcoin with it." Right? So, if you overlay how much gold they bought versus how much Bitcoin they, they got, go and do it and get back to me on it. And I think it's super interesting that he's trying to, to kind of figure this out, but 2% of total gold demand, okay, 2% of total gold demand was Tether. And I, I don't think you can, I don't think you can underestimate what they're doing here. Um, I think a lot of it is, "Oh, yeah, we're going to have a gold stable coin." And this is really where I was going when I was talking about Bitcoin. And I think there's some issues here. If Bitcoin is the quote store of value, well, my gold physical gold stable coin is really a store of value, not Bitcoin. And, and I can move with it, and it's not going to move anywhere near as much, right? I have the physical ability to own gold through this stable coin. I, I don't think people are truly getting what they're doing here. They're taking Tether and they're taking that money and they're converting it into physical gold. If you look at the CEO here, while the world continues...

To get darker, Tether will continue to invest parts of its profits in safe assets. Okay, what are they buying? Well, he's of course he's got to say Bitcoin, right? What else is he going to say? Of course he is going to say that. Gold and land.

So, here we have this thing that's out there that everyone's like, "Oh, this is the future. This is the future." What What's the CEO buying? He's got to say Bitcoin, right? But what is he really buying? Golden land. Okay, kind of interesting, right? That they're profit projections of 15 billion dollars. And he's not saying, "No, we're buying Ethereum. He's not buying XRP." What's he buying? Golden Land. And this is the guy, this is the company that backs what you guys are trading, what I trade. And if you don't look at this and take it seriously, I think there's a reckoning coming in some of these in some of this crypto stuff. I I really do.

When I looked at this, if Tether deploys 50% of its profits to gold, it could add 60 tons annually. 300 300 million invested in gold, royalty, and streaming companies. So, they're building out their crypto operations right now. They hired senior metals traders from HSBC to professionalize operations. They are building a comprehensive gold ecosystem strategy. Not a Bitcoin ecosystem strategy, a gold ecosystem strategy.

I I'll say why it matters and this is what I've come up with. They're competing directly with central banks. So there there's people aren't even thinking about it that they actually have bought more than some central banks out there. And I think that this is where other crypto places are going to look at this and go what what are we doing? What's really going on here? And what's going on is they're buying gold. They're buying physical gold and land. And if the CEO of the company is telling you that they're doing that and you're not paying attention to this, you know, do what you're comfortable with. And I think that a lot of this has to do with independence.

Kazan's number three. Personally, and this is my personal opinion, I think the Russian sanctions is going to go down as one of the greatest blunders in history. Coming out there and saying that a country can no longer trade or do anything. All it did was force everybody's hands. And whether you I'm not agreeing with what they're doing at all, but the way that they went about it, when you really look at this, all it did was just throw everybody into this and say, "Wait a minute. You took us out of Swift. The only thing that we everyone will always take gold. There's no counterparty risk, right? You can't freeze our physical gold, right? You can't you can't be devalued by somebody."

And I think that that is really important to get where we're all going like I'm not going to put on the tin foil hat, but I'll do it for a second. I'll put the tinfoil hat on. Here we go. While we're all going digital and we're all putting more and more of our stuff on in the digital world, the central banks and the real money here is buying physicality. They are buying gold. They are buying land. Just think about that. The ddollarization 100% agree. Central banks looked at what happened to Russia, specifically China. I I would I don't know that Poland's afraid that the US is going to do something there, but I think they looked at their independence and said, "This is how we're going to get it."

So, we as traders have to look at this stuff from 34,000 ft and go, what does this mean? The demand for gold is not going away. If anything, it's going to grow. So, when we take a look at inventories, London vaults down 40%, same period. Shanghai inventories 10-year lows. some regions maintaining 30 to 45 days of usable supply. 30 to 45 days of usable supply in gold.

Now look guys, I get things wrong all the time. And I just that's the game. But when I look at this larger picture on what's going on with gold and the S&P, I can't equate this to something that I'm supposed to be that concerned about, right? That gold is going to outperform the S&P and therefore the boogeyman's going to come and and the market's going to crash. No, I I don't look at it that way.

Here's what I would look at though, and this is why I think you should be paying attention to what I've said today. If I look at this on a monthly chart, and I'm just going to overlay the Ichimoku cloud for a second, and I'm not going to get into all the lines, the lagging and everything, but you are above what you need to be above. What I want you to focus on is the cloud and the cloud flip right here. So, I have a monthly cloud flip that happen. And these these lines happen 26 out, like 26 months out. So, if I go to 26, and you'll look at when this happened, right? Happened right in this area. All right? So you pop over and that's when the cloud flipped and since that area you can see that we have outperformed greatly and it's widening. So I am above the cloud, right? So like again I can go and show you through mine if mine's on here. It's a little easier to see. I have to go this way with it and you're just going to have to deal with the uh the fubs because I'm not going to have time to edit this. All right, cool. So here's just the cloud and here's where I'm going with this. And yeah, I get it. You didn't have a monthly cloud back here, but it would have flipped clearly. But when we look at the gold and the S&P, we popped over here and this is where we were at. You're over the monthly cloud. You've never been over the monthly cloud, like ever. And here we are, and it's getting wider. I I wouldn't sleep on that.

There's a couple other things that really stood out to me here that I think are worth bringing up. If we take a look at the RSI, you obviously popped over on the monthly, came back down, and you're popping up again. That's telling me the relativity of what I'm dealing here is absolutely huge. I I really wouldn't, you know, sleep on things like that. If we take a look at some of this stuff, um, and I drop from here, that peak, this level is going to be absolutely huge on a volume VWAP level. But also, if I go here real quick and just show you this on a MACD basis, and I think that this is super interesting. Um, I'm going to do the Do I want to do the weekly? Uh, no, because it'll kick me out. So, we'll do it this way. We'll just go and we'll do it this way. And we'll just do uh short, whatever. Update it. Uh, and then I'll get rid of this. And then I'm going to get rid of all these lines. And we're going to bring this bad boy up. And what you're going to see is, see where this peak is right here? Look where the RSI is. Look at it. See where the RSI or I'm sorry. You see where the MACD is right here? And you see how you're trying to get above, but you're already above here. That's what you're looking for. You're looking for divergences. You're always looking for divergences. Does it mean it's going to work? No. But it does mean that it's telling you that something has changed. And you can see this change in here too when both of these lines flipped. If you look at when we broke out here on the signal line and the MACD line and when that broke out, you can see the move. Then we broke out as well with the signal, right? So you can see the difference there. So the chances of getting above that are good. And what does that mean? It means that gold goes higher relative to the S&P. You should do what you want with that.

Now, I'm not concerned about what happened back here in 2017. I'm concerned about now. So, I just want to show you something. If we go back to 21, when the Fed made their move, and we're going to go back to this January level right here, and this is when you have January 2021, right? And so, if we mark from that level o over, what do you notice about gold versus Bitcoin? If you take a look at it from this direction and then we go into this on the weekly and look at it that way as well, you have a bottoming level where gold is no longer breaking in relation to Bitcoin and it's been developing since 21. And here I'm going to blow this up so you can see it. So you have got a bottom level where gold is not breaking versus Bitcoin anymore. And my personal opinion of this level is it's probably guys like Tether that are doing that because they really control they really control that.

So, you know, that whole thing, you'll know nothing unlike it. I think you should take pay real close attention to the fact that these guys are out there that are actually in the arena that are actually the backing, if when you look at the T there, that's what it means. They're out there backing stable coin, right, in gold. And you know, they're not out there saying, "Oh, well, this stable coin's got a piece of Bitcoin. It's got a piece of Ethereum. You should buy this one." They're not creating these esoteric things. They're creating things that have physicality. And I don't know if you're going to get stable coin land if that's where this guy's going with it. I don't have a clue. But if you're not paying attention to stuff like this, I think you're doing yourself a huge disservice. When I look at this on the weekly and then drop this to the monthly, like this thing's getting ready to absolutely explode.

So I think that Bitcoin to me, the people that were buying a lot of the Bitcoin, I actually think that they're diversifying really hard out of it. When I look at something like this, this is a monthly Bitcoin chart. And you can see your pop. You can see your undercut right here. You can see your pop. You can see your undercut right here. And here you are on the monthly. These are massive monthly charts and massive breaks that have to get themselves together. So, you know, when we when I say things like, oh, you could have an 80% correction. And people think that like I'm I'm crazy when I say it. You had one back here. You had one in November 21. And I think you could have another one in here. I think this can get a heck of a lot worse. And it doesn't happen on a Tuesday, guys. It takes a long time for this stuff to kind of kick in. But I think that that's where this is going. And I think that if you're really a believer in this stuff, then that's really what you want. You want it washed out so that you can take advantage of it. Um, that's where my head is with all of what's going on with copper and things along those lines.

I would be remiss to just point not point out a couple things as you go into next week. Um, I would really be watching what they're doing with DRAM. I would really be paying very close attention to these names. A lot of people think that this stuff's done. If you really spend some time looking at DRAM and how that pricing is going, you're going to see it's far from it. Also, take a look at what just happened. I'm going to tie it all together. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Trump administration on the 26 came out and said, "We're going to put this in a position where no new tariffs to 2027 on Nvidia." Well, the thing that I love about his language is it's so like esoteric and so open to interpretation. Well, what do no new tariffs mean? How far back are you going with that? Are you saying this 25% that that you were going to make, you're not going to make anymore? Are you doing that because you're worried about China and silver and they're going to give us a break? So, what we want to do is understand that there's a lot of moving parts and as people say, there's a lot of horse trading going on. It's my belief that he's going to continue to lessen some of the issues with semiconductors that is going to lead to more horse trading with critical minerals. And I think that's where it's going. And I think when you start to look at stuff like that, that's why you're seeing names like Lamb Research hit all-time highs. Micron hit an all-time high on Friday. I think that if you start following this kind of thing, you'll start seeing where the money's going. That's a